Federal seat projection, 20 May 2026

As of 20 May 2026, from 175 polls

No federal election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the national polling average since that election, adjusted region by region with provincial and regional polls, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 3 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 20 May 2026.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the Liberals win a median of 211 seats (90% range 142–270) and a majority in 85%; the Conservatives 100 seats (90% range 47–163) and a majority in 4%; the Bloc Québécois 20 seats (90% range 5–34); the NDP 11 seats (90% range 3–19); the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–3). No party wins a majority in 11%.

Liberal majority
85%
Most seats in 93% of simulations
Conservative majority
4%
Most seats in 7% of simulations
No majority
11%
52 ridings with no party above 60%

172 for a majority

Liberal

211 seats (142–270) · majority 85%

Conservative

100 seats (47–163) · majority 4%

NDP

11 seats (3–19)

Bloc Québécois

20 seats (5–34)

Green

2 seats (0–3)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 172 of 343 seats. People’s Party and Other win no seat in the median simulation; People’s Party wins at least one in <1%, Other wins at least one in <1%.

Seat distributions

172 for a majority

Liberal

Median 211, 90%: 142–270

Majority in 85%

Most frequent: 214 (1.4%)

Conservative

Median 100, 90%: 47–163

Majority in 4%

Most frequent: 87 (1.4%)

NDP

Median 11, 90%: 3–19

Most frequent: 13 (8.5%)

Bloc Québécois

Median 20, 90%: 5–34

Most frequent: 21 (5.8%)

Green

Median 2, 90%: 0–3

Most frequent: 2 (54.1%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Liberal	211	142 to 270	214 seats, 1.4% of simulations	85%
Conservative	100	47 to 163	87 seats, 1.4% of simulations	4%
NDP	11	3 to 19	13 seats, 8.5% of simulations	0%
Bloc Québécois	20	5 to 34	21 seats, 5.8% of simulations	0%
Green	2	0 to 3	2 seats, 54.1% of simulations	0%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 172 of 343 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Abacus Data, fieldwork to 20 May 2026, 1,920 respondentsLiberal 47 · Conservative 35 · NDP 8 · Bloc Québécois 6 · Green 2 · People’s Party 1

Change since 16 May 2026

Median seats: Liberal +1, Conservative 0, NDP −1, Bloc Québécois −1, Green 0.
Chance of a majority, in points: Liberal +1, Conservative 0; no majority −1.
Projected leader changed in 5 ridings: Montmorency—Charlevoix (Bloc Québécois to Conservative); Shefford (Bloc Québécois to Liberal); Newmarket—Aurora (Conservative to Liberal); North Island—Powell River (NDP to Conservative); Richmond Centre—Marpole (Conservative to Liberal).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn
Solid 95%+	74	24	1	0	0
Likely 80–95%	83	15	1	7	1
Leans 60–80%	29	36	6	13	1
Toss-up <60%	52

Canada

Ottawa–Gatineau

Vancouver

Greater Toronto

Montreal

Calgary

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Seats changing hands

Won in 2025Projected

LibLiberal169

ConConservative144

NDPNDP7

BQBloc Québécois22

GrnGreen1

LibLiberal186

ConConservative75

NDPNDP8

BQBloc Québécois20

GrnGreen2

Toss-upToss-up52

Ridings by party: won in 2025, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2025	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
LibLiberal	169	186	18	–	1
ConConservative	144	75	–	22	47
NDPNDP	7	8	3	–	2
BQBloc Québécois	22	20	–	–	2
GrnGreen	1	2	1	–	–
Toss-up		52

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2025 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2025 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Liberal172nd-best riding: Brampton South, 73% · chance of a majority 85%

Conservative172nd-best riding: Port Moody—Coquitlam, 14% · chance of a majority 4%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 172 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 172nd-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

By region

2025 vote projected vote or median seats 90% range of seats 2025 seats

British Columbia43 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		44.1%, 2025: 41.8%		25+5 seats, 90% range 13 to 35; 2025: 20
Con		35.1%, 2025: 41.2%		12−7 seats, 90% range 3 to 25; 2025: 19
NDP		14.5%, 2025: 13.0%		4+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 7; 2025: 3
Grn		4.4%, 2025: 3.0%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
PPC		1.2%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Alberta37 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		49.4%, 2025: 63.6%		24−10 seats, 90% range 15 to 32; 2025: 34
Lib		34.4%, 2025: 27.9%		11+9 seats, 90% range 3 to 20; 2025: 2
NDP		10.4%, 2025: 6.3%		2+1 seats, 90% range 1 to 2; 2025: 1
PPC		2.0%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		1.5%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Manitoba and Saskatchewan28 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		43.8%, 2025: 54.9%		15−5 seats, 90% range 11 to 19; 2025: 20
Lib		39.1%, 2025: 34.1%		12+5 seats, 90% range 7 to 16; 2025: 7
NDP		12.9%, 2025: 9.4%		2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1
Grn		2.0%, 2025: 0.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.5%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Ontario122 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		48.8%, 2025: 49.2%		84+14 seats, 90% range 50 to 111; 2025: 70
Con		36.2%, 2025: 43.8%		35−17 seats, 90% range 9 to 68; 2025: 52
NDP		9.4%, 2025: 4.8%		2+2 seats, 90% range 0 to 5; 2025: 0
Grn		2.8%, 2025: 1.1%		1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 0
PPC		1.5%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Quebec78 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		43.2%, 2025: 42.6%		49+5 seats, 90% range 34 to 66; 2025: 44
BQ		26.4%, 2025: 27.7%		20−2 seats, 90% range 5 to 34; 2025: 22
Con		18.7%, 2025: 23.3%		8−3 seats, 90% range 2 to 13; 2025: 11
NDP		7.0%, 2025: 4.5%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1
Grn		2.4%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.5%, 2025: 0.8%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Atlantic32 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		56.1%, 2025: 55.5%		27+3 seats, 90% range 19 to 31; 2025: 24
Con		32.3%, 2025: 38.0%		5−3 seats, 90% range 1 to 13; 2025: 8
NDP		7.7%, 2025: 4.3%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		2.4%, 2025: 1.1%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.0%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Territories3 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		51.2%, 2025: 50.5%		2 seats, 90% range 1 to 3; 2025: 2
NDP		17.9%, 2025: 13.4%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 1
Con		27.3%, 2025: 34.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 0
Grn		2.9%, 2025: 1.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Vote: each party’s share of the valid vote in 2025 and the projection’s estimate for the region now, on one scale (0–70%) for every region. Seats: the median and the middle 90% of the simulations, on each region’s own scale, and the change in the median from the 2025 result. Regions as in the model: Manitoba and Saskatchewan together; the three territories together.

All 343 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.

All 343 ridings: 2025 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abbotsford—South LangleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 43.1%Con 48 (34–61) · Lib 41 (28–56)	Conservative 43.1%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative47.7 (34–61)Liberal41.4 (28–56)
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouQuebec · 2025: Lib 41.2%Lib 43 (29–58) · BQ 31 (18–46)	Liberal 41.2%	LibLiberalLeans	79%	Leans	Liberal43.2 (29–58)Bloc Québécois31.2 (18–46)Conservative17.2 (7–29)
Abitibi—TémiscamingueQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.4%BQ 47 (31–63) · Lib 27 (12–42)	Bloc Québécois 49.4%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	90%	Likely	Bloc Québécois47.4 (31–63)Liberal26.8 (12–42)Conservative14.6 (4–27)
Acadie—AnnapolisNova Scotia · 2025: Con 47.7%Lib 52 (37–73) · Con 36 (15–51)	Conservative 47.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	83%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (37–73)Conservative35.6 (15–51)
Acadie—BathurstNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 67.5%Lib 67 (53–80) · Con 21 (9–33)	Liberal 67.5%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal67.2 (53–80)Conservative20.9 (9–33)
Ahuntsic-CartiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 61%Lib 59 (46–72) · BQ 16 (7–26)	Liberal 61%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.2 (46–72)Bloc Québécois15.7 (7–26)Conservative11.6 (4–21)
Airdrie—CochraneAlberta · 2025: Con 71.2%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 30 (17–44)	Conservative 71.2%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative55.8 (41–70)Liberal30.3 (17–44)
AjaxOntario · 2025: Lib 56.3%Lib 58 (43–71) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 56.3%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal57.6 (43–71)Conservative30.2 (17–44)
Alfred-PellanQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 54 (40–67) · BQ 19 (9–31)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal53.9 (40–67)Bloc Québécois19.1 (9–31)Conservative17.1 (7–28)
Algonquin—Renfrew—PembrokeOntario · 2025: Con 55.7%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 55.7%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative47.5 (33–62)Liberal37.7 (24–52)
Argenteuil—La Petite-NationQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.5%Lib 47 (32–62) · BQ 22 (10–34)	Liberal 47.5%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal47.3 (32–62)Bloc Québécois21.5 (10–34)Conservative19.7 (8–32)
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillOntario · 2025: Con 54.7%Con 49 (35–63) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 54.7%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative49.1 (35–63)Liberal41.2 (27–56)
AvalonNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.1 (45–74)Conservative29.0 (16–43)
Barrie South—InnisfilOntario · 2025: Con 57.8%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 57.8%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative49.8 (35–64)Liberal38.1 (24–53)
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Lib 44 (29–59) · Con 43 (29–58)	Conservative 51.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal44.0 (29–59)Conservative43.4 (29–58)
Battle River—CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 82.8%Con 69 (53–82) · Lib 17 (5–30)	Conservative 82.8%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative68.5 (53–82)Liberal16.8 (5–30)
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow LakeSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 75.8%Con 64 (49–78) · Lib 24 (11–37)	Conservative 75.8%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative64.1 (49–78)Liberal23.5 (11–37)
Bay of QuinteOntario · 2025: Lib 50.4%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 50.4%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal51.7 (37–66)Conservative34.9 (22–49)
Beaches—East YorkOntario · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 66 (51–80) · Con 16 (5–29)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal65.9 (51–80)Conservative16.0 (5–29)NDP11.7 (2–23)
BeauceQuebec · 2025: Con 59.7%Con 55 (39–70) · Lib 19 (6–33)	Conservative 59.7%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative55.1 (39–70)Liberal18.8 (6–33)Bloc Québécois12.0 (2–25)
Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—HuntingdonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 42 (28–57) · Lib 32 (19–46)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	76%	Leans	Bloc Québécois42.4 (28–57)Liberal31.9 (19–46)Conservative14.8 (5–26)
Beauport—LimoilouQuebec · 2025: Lib 35.6%Lib 38 (23–54) · BQ 26 (13–41)	Liberal 35.6%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal38.3 (23–54)Bloc Québécois26.1 (13–41)Conservative23.4 (10–37)
BeauséjourNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 60 (46–74) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.2 (46–74)Conservative27.8 (15–42)
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—LévisQuebec · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 42 (27–57) · Lib 29 (14–44)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative42.4 (27–57)Liberal28.8 (14–44)Bloc Québécois17.7 (6–32)
Beloeil—ChamblyQuebec · 2025: BQ 48.3%BQ 46 (31–61) · Lib 33 (20–48)	Bloc Québécois 48.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	80%	Likely	Bloc Québécois46.2 (31–61)Liberal33.3 (20–48)
Berthier—MaskinongéQuebec · 2025: BQ 35%BQ 31 (18–46) · NDP 28 (12–43)	Bloc Québécois 35%	BQBloc QuébécoisToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois31.4 (18–46)NDP28.2 (12–43)Liberal22.6 (10–37)Conservative11.9 (2–23)
BourassaQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 59 (46–72) · BQ 15 (7–26)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.4 (46–72)Bloc Québécois15.4 (7–26)Conservative12.4 (4–22)
Bow RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 78.9%Con 66 (50–79) · Lib 22 (10–35)	Conservative 78.9%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.5 (50–79)Liberal21.9 (10–35)
Bowmanville—Oshawa NorthOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 42 (27–56)	Conservative 49.8%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal45.5 (31–60)Conservative41.9 (27–56)
Brampton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 50 (36–64) · Con 37 (24–51)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal50.3 (36–64)Conservative37.2 (24–51)
Brampton EastOntario · 2025: Lib 48.6%Lib 49 (35–64) · Con 37 (24–52)	Liberal 48.6%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal49.0 (35–64)Conservative37.4 (24–52)
Brampton North—CaledonOntario · 2025: Lib 49%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 49%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal49.3 (34–64)Conservative39.9 (26–54)
Brampton SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 50 (35–65) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal50.0 (35–65)Conservative40.3 (26–54)
Brampton WestOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 44 (30–59)	Conservative 49.8%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Liberal45.8 (31–60)Conservative44.4 (30–59)
Brampton—Chinguacousy ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal48.8 (34–63)Conservative36.9 (23–51)
Brandon—SourisManitoba · 2025: Con 62.2%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 26 (14–40)	Conservative 62.2%	ConConservativeLikely	95%	Likely	Conservative51.6 (37–66)Liberal26.3 (14–40)NDP18.3 (8–30)
Brantford—Brant South—Six NationsOntario · 2025: Con 52.4%Con 44 (29–59) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 52.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative44.0 (29–59)Liberal40.6 (26–55)
Brome—MissisquoiQuebec · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 50 (34–65) · BQ 25 (12–40)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal50.0 (34–65)Bloc Québécois25.4 (12–40)Conservative13.9 (4–26)
Brossard—Saint-LambertQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.2%Lib 62 (48–73) · Con 15 (6–25)	Liberal 62.2%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal61.5 (48–73)Conservative15.3 (6–25)Bloc Québécois12.5 (4–22)
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 40 (25–54)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative44.3 (30–58)Liberal39.6 (25–54)
BurlingtonOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 55 (40–70) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal55.4 (40–70)Conservative33.0 (19–47)
Burlington North—Milton WestOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 37 (22–51)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal52.8 (38–67)Conservative36.8 (22–51)
Burnaby CentralBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 42.2%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 31 (18–44)	Liberal 42.2%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal46.0 (32–60)Conservative30.6 (18–44)NDP19.4 (8–31)
Burnaby North—SeymourBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.1%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 59.1%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.0 (46–74)Conservative27.8 (15–41)
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—AlnôbakQuebec · 2025: BQ 47%BQ 45 (30–61) · Lib 27 (13–42)	Bloc Québécois 47%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	87%	Likely	Bloc Québécois45.3 (30–61)Liberal27.0 (13–42)Conservative16.5 (5–30)
Calgary CentreAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 53 (37–67) · Con 35 (21–50)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.0 (37–67)Conservative35.3 (21–50)
Calgary ConfederationAlberta · 2025: Lib 48.1%Lib 57 (42–70) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 48.1%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal56.7 (42–70)Conservative30.3 (17–44)
Calgary CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 58.8%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 44 (29–58)	Conservative 58.8%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal44.7 (30–59)Conservative43.8 (29–58)
Calgary EastAlberta · 2025: Con 60.5%Con 45 (31–60) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 60.5%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative45.4 (31–60)Liberal38.7 (24–53)
Calgary HeritageAlberta · 2025: Con 61.4%Con 46 (32–61) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 61.4%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative46.3 (32–61)Liberal42.1 (27–56)
Calgary McKnightAlberta · 2025: Con 49.1%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–51)	Conservative 49.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal50.8 (36–65)Conservative37.2 (23–51)
Calgary MidnaporeAlberta · 2025: Con 65.5%Con 50 (35–65) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 65.5%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative50.2 (35–65)Liberal37.0 (23–52)
Calgary Nose HillAlberta · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 44 (29–59) · Lib 43 (28–58)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative44.2 (29–59)Liberal43.3 (28–58)
Calgary ShepardAlberta · 2025: Con 68%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 35 (21–50)	Conservative 68%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative52.7 (38–67)Liberal35.3 (21–50)
Calgary Signal HillAlberta · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 47 (33–62) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative47.2 (33–62)Liberal41.8 (27–56)
Calgary SkyviewAlberta · 2025: Con 55.4%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 45 (30–59)	Conservative 55.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Conservative44.8 (30–60)Liberal44.6 (30–59)
CambridgeOntario · 2025: Con 48.6%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 43 (28–57)	Conservative 48.6%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Liberal43.7 (29–58)Conservative42.7 (28–57)
Cape Breton—Canso—AntigonishNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.6%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 38 (23–52)	Liberal 51.6%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal52.0 (37–66)Conservative37.6 (23–52)
Cape SpearNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 68.3%Lib 69 (54–82) · Con 20 (8–32)	Liberal 68.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal68.6 (54–82)Conservative19.6 (8–32)
CardiganPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57%Lib 58 (42–73) · Con 32 (18–47)	Liberal 57%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal57.9 (42–73)Conservative32.4 (18–47)
Cariboo—Prince GeorgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 60.3%Con 53 (39–67) · Lib 33 (20–46)	Conservative 60.3%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative53.4 (39–67)Liberal32.7 (20–46)
CarletonOntario · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 54 (39–67) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (39–67)Conservative36.9 (23–51)
Carlton Trail—Eagle CreekSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.4%Con 66 (50–79) · Lib 22 (10–35)	Conservative 77.4%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.7 (50–79)Liberal21.5 (10–35)
Central NewfoundlandNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 54.1%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 45 (29–59)	Conservative 54.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative47.9 (33–63)Liberal44.5 (29–59)
Central NovaNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 53 (38–66) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal52.5 (38–66)Conservative37.0 (23–51)
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesQuebec · 2025: Con 42.4%Con 36 (21–51) · Lib 35 (20–51)	Conservative 42.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Conservative36.2 (21–51)Liberal35.2 (20–51)Bloc Québécois18.2 (6–32)
CharlottetownPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 64.8%Lib 64 (49–78) · Con 24 (11–38)	Liberal 64.8%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.9 (49–78)Conservative23.7 (11–38)
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	80%	Likely	Conservative48.6 (34–63)Liberal35.7 (22–50)
Chicoutimi—Le FjordQuebec · 2025: Con 34.1%Lib 51 (34–68) · BQ 31 (15–47)	Conservative 34.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal51.2 (34–68)Bloc Québécois30.6 (15–47)Conservative10.8 (0–23)
Chilliwack—HopeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 48 (33–61) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative47.6 (33–61)Liberal37.6 (24–52)
Churchill—Keewatinook AskiManitoba · 2025: Lib 45.5%Lib 50 (35–65) · NDP 32 (18–46)	Liberal 45.5%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal49.6 (35–65)NDP32.0 (18–46)Conservative13.6 (4–25)
Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.2%Lib 47 (33–61) · BQ 27 (15–39)	Liberal 45.2%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal47.2 (33–61)Bloc Québécois26.7 (15–39)Conservative16.5 (7–27)
Cloverdale—Langley CityBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.8%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 41 (27–55)	Conservative 47.8%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.8 (34–63)Conservative41.0 (27–55)
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 44 (28–59) · Lib 30 (16–45)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative43.6 (28–59)Liberal30.2 (16–45)NDP20.4 (8–33)
Compton—StansteadQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 48 (32–63) · BQ 24 (11–38)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal47.5 (32–63)Bloc Québécois23.6 (11–38)Conservative16.3 (5–29)
Coquitlam—Port CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 50 (35–63) · Con 37 (23–50)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal49.5 (35–63)Conservative36.5 (23–50)
Courtenay—AlberniBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 39.6%NDP 43 (26–57) · Con 28 (14–43)	NDP 39.6%	NDPNDPLeans	79%	Leans	NDP42.7 (26–57)Conservative28.0 (14–43)Liberal23.3 (11–38)
Cowichan—Malahat—LangfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 37.2%NDP 34 (19–48) · Con 33 (19–47)	Conservative 37.2%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	43%	Toss-up	NDP33.7 (19–48)Conservative33.0 (19–47)Liberal27.6 (14–42)
Cumberland—ColchesterNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal50.6 (36–65)Conservative37.9 (24–52)
Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—NitassinanQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.7%BQ 42 (27–58) · Lib 28 (14–42)	Bloc Québécois 43.7%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	80%	Likely	Bloc Québécois42.4 (27–58)Liberal27.6 (14–42)Conservative20.3 (8–33)
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—TémiscouataQuebec · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 39 (24–54) · Lib 31 (16–47)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative39.3 (24–54)Liberal30.9 (16–47)Bloc Québécois19.1 (7–33)
Dartmouth—Cole HarbourNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 66 (52–79) · Con 18 (7–30)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal65.9 (52–79)Conservative17.6 (7–30)NDP11.4 (3–21)
DavenportOntario · 2025: Lib 57.8%Lib 52 (37–67) · NDP 26 (12–39)	Liberal 57.8%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal52.2 (37–67)NDP25.8 (12–39)Conservative15.6 (5–28)
DeltaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 51.8%Lib 56 (42–69) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 51.8%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal56.1 (42–69)Conservative35.0 (22–49)
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill RiverSaskatchewan · 2025: Lib 65.1%Lib 70 (55–82) · Con 15 (5–27)	Liberal 65.1%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal69.5 (55–82)Conservative15.2 (5–27)NDP11.7 (3–22)
Don Valley NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 33 (20–47)	Liberal 53.2%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal55.0 (40–69)Conservative33.3 (20–47)
Don Valley WestOntario · 2025: Lib 62.6%Lib 62 (47–76) · Con 26 (14–40)	Liberal 62.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.0 (47–76)Conservative26.4 (14–40)
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalleQuebec · 2025: Lib 59.4%Lib 59 (45–71) · Con 17 (8–27)	Liberal 59.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal58.6 (45–71)Conservative17.3 (8–27)Bloc Québécois11.8 (4–21)
DrummondQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.8%BQ 41 (25–56) · Lib 28 (14–43)	Bloc Québécois 42.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	79%	Leans	Bloc Québécois40.9 (25–56)Liberal28.0 (14–43)Conservative17.4 (6–30)
Dufferin—CaledonOntario · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 35 (22–49)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative52.2 (37–66)Liberal35.3 (22–49)
Edmonton CentreAlberta · 2025: Lib 44.3%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 23 (11–36)	Liberal 44.3%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal50.8 (36–65)Conservative22.6 (11–36)NDP20.5 (8–33)
Edmonton GatewayAlberta · 2025: Con 50.6%Lib 46 (31–61) · Con 39 (24–53)	Conservative 50.6%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal46.3 (31–61)Conservative38.7 (24–53)
Edmonton GriesbachAlberta · 2025: Con 45.5%NDP 42 (24–57) · Con 32 (18–47)	Conservative 45.5%	NDPNDPgain from ConLeans	72%	Leans	NDP42.1 (24–57)Conservative31.8 (18–47)Liberal20.2 (9–34)
Edmonton ManningAlberta · 2025: Con 53.1%Lib 41 (26–56) · Con 37 (23–52)	Conservative 53.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Liberal41.1 (26–56)Conservative37.4 (23–52)NDP14.9 (4–26)
Edmonton NorthwestAlberta · 2025: Con 53.4%Lib 43 (28–57) · Con 41 (26–55)	Conservative 53.4%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal42.9 (28–57)Conservative40.8 (26–55)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Edmonton RiverbendAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 58 (41–78) · Con 29 (9–45)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal57.7 (41–78)Conservative29.4 (9–45)
Edmonton SoutheastAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 40 (26–55)	Conservative 52.9%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal43.8 (29–58)Conservative40.4 (26–55)
Edmonton StrathconaAlberta · 2025: NDP 47%NDP 56 (37–71) · Lib 20 (8–34)	NDP 47%	NDPNDPSolid	96%	Solid	NDP56.4 (37–71)Liberal19.7 (8–34)Conservative18.3 (7–32)
Edmonton WestAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Lib 47 (32–62) · Con 38 (23–52)	Conservative 52.9%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal47.4 (32–62)Conservative37.5 (23–52)
Eglinton—LawrenceOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 39 (24–52)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal51.5 (37–66)Conservative38.5 (24–52)
EgmontPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 52 (36–67) · Con 37 (22–52)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal51.7 (36–67)Conservative37.3 (22–52)
Elgin—St. Thomas—London SouthOntario · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 44 (30–59) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative44.3 (30–59)Liberal40.9 (27–56)
Elmwood—TransconaManitoba · 2025: Con 41.6%NDP 39 (24–53) · Con 32 (19–46)	Conservative 41.6%	NDPNDPgain from ConLeans	65%	Leans	NDP39.3 (24–53)Conservative32.2 (19–46)Liberal23.8 (12–37)
Esquimalt—Saanich—SookeBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 52 (37–67) · Con 22 (9–35)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal52.1 (37–67)Conservative21.6 (9–35)NDP19.5 (8–32)
EssexOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative48.9 (34–63)Liberal36.6 (23–51)
Etobicoke CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.6%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 53.6%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.5 (39–68)Conservative36.5 (23–51)
Etobicoke NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 52.6%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 52.6%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal54.2 (39–68)Conservative32.1 (19–46)
Etobicoke—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 57.4%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 57.4%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal57.2 (42–71)Conservative31.5 (18–46)
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant NorthOntario · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 45 (30–58) · Lib 43 (29–58)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Conservative44.5 (30–58)Liberal43.2 (29–58)
Fleetwood—Port KellsBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 36 (22–49)	Liberal 47.9%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal52.2 (38–66)Conservative35.8 (22–49)
FoothillsAlberta · 2025: Con 76.3%Con 62 (46–76) · Lib 25 (12–39)	Conservative 76.3%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative61.5 (46–76)Liberal25.3 (12–39)
Fort McMurray—Cold LakeAlberta · 2025: Con 80.2%Con 66 (51–79) · Lib 20 (9–33)	Conservative 80.2%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative66.0 (51–79)Liberal20.4 (9–33)
Fredericton—OromoctoNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 61.3%Lib 62 (48–76) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 61.3%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.4 (48–76)Conservative25.5 (13–39)
Fundy RoyalNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative46.9 (32–61)Liberal40.4 (26–55)
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—ListugujQuebec · 2025: BQ 45.8%BQ 46 (30–62) · Lib 36 (21–52)	Bloc Québécois 45.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	73%	Leans	Bloc Québécois46.3 (30–62)Liberal36.1 (21–52)
GatineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.5%Lib 60 (45–73) · BQ 15 (5–27)	Liberal 60.5%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.9 (45–73)Bloc Québécois15.1 (5–27)Conservative14.7 (5–26)
Grande PrairieAlberta · 2025: Con 81.7%Con 67 (53–80) · Lib 17 (6–30)	Conservative 81.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative67.4 (53–80)Liberal17.2 (6–30)
GuelphOntario · 2025: Lib 54.7%Lib 52 (37–68) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 54.7%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal51.9 (37–68)Conservative21.2 (9–34)Green16.8 (1–31)
Haldimand—NorfolkOntario · 2025: Con 57.6%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 57.6%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative49.0 (34–63)Liberal36.2 (22–51)
Haliburton—Kawartha LakesOntario · 2025: Con 56.6%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 56.6%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal38.9 (24–53)
HalifaxNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 61 (46–75) · NDP 23 (9–36)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.6 (46–75)NDP22.5 (9–36)Conservative13.1 (4–24)
Halifax WestNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 65.6%Lib 64 (50–78) · Con 22 (10–35)	Liberal 65.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.4 (50–78)Conservative21.9 (10–35)
Hamilton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 37.6%NDP 39 (23–54) · Lib 35 (21–50)	Liberal 37.6%	NDPNDPgain from LibToss-up	60%	Toss-up	NDP39.1 (23–54)Liberal35.1 (21–50)Conservative19.3 (8–33)
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Lib 44 (30–59) · Con 43 (29–57)	Conservative 48.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Liberal44.3 (30–59)Conservative43.3 (29–57)
Hamilton MountainOntario · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 43 (29–58) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal43.2 (29–58)Conservative32.4 (19–46)NDP19.5 (8–32)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasOntario · 2025: Lib 56.1%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 28 (14–41)	Liberal 56.1%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal56.5 (42–71)Conservative27.6 (14–41)
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—TyendinagaOntario · 2025: Con 54.3%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 54.3%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative45.7 (31–60)Liberal40.0 (26–54)
Hochelaga—Rosemont-EstQuebec · 2025: Lib 46.1%Lib 46 (32–60) · BQ 24 (12–36)	Liberal 46.1%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal46.2 (32–60)Bloc Québécois23.8 (12–36)NDP16.7 (5–28)
Honoré-MercierQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.2%Lib 61 (48–73) · Con 17 (8–27)	Liberal 60.2%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal61.2 (48–73)Conservative17.1 (8–27)Bloc Québécois11.6 (4–21)
Hull—AylmerQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 61 (47–74) · Con 13 (4–23)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal60.9 (47–74)Conservative13.2 (4–23)Bloc Québécois11.1 (3–21)
Humber River—Black CreekOntario · 2025: Lib 55.6%Lib 54 (39–69) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 55.6%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal54.2 (39–69)Conservative28.1 (15–42)NDP11.8 (3–22)
Huron—BruceOntario · 2025: Con 53.2%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 53.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative44.8 (30–59)Liberal41.4 (27–56)
Joliette—ManawanQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.3%BQ 48 (32–62) · Lib 31 (18–45)	Bloc Québécois 49.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	86%	Likely	Bloc Québécois47.5 (32–62)Liberal30.9 (18–45)Conservative10.9 (2–21)
JonquièreQuebec · 2025: BQ 40%BQ 39 (23–55) · Lib 26 (12–41)	Bloc Québécois 40%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	71%	Leans	Bloc Québécois38.7 (23–55)Liberal26.0 (12–41)Conservative24.5 (11–39)
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 41 (26–56)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Conservative45.1 (30–60)Liberal41.1 (26–56)
Kamloops—Thompson—NicolaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.5%Con 45 (29–59) · Lib 42 (27–58)	Conservative 51.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Conservative44.6 (29–59)Liberal42.3 (27–58)
KanataOntario · 2025: Lib 60.8%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 60.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.9 (45–74)Conservative28.4 (15–42)
Kapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukOntario · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 42 (28–56) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative42.1 (28–56)Liberal35.9 (22–50)NDP16.9 (6–29)
KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 53 (38–68) · Con 38 (24–53)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal53.2 (38–68)Conservative38.2 (24–53)
Kenora—KiiwetinoongOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 39 (24–53) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative38.5 (24–53)Liberal33.1 (20–47)NDP22.3 (9–36)
Kildonan—St. PaulManitoba · 2025: Con 47.5%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 36 (22–50)	Conservative 47.5%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal49.7 (35–64)Conservative35.9 (22–50)
Kingston and the IslandsOntario · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 61 (47–75) · Con 23 (12–37)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.2 (47–75)Conservative23.3 (12–37)
Kings—HantsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 60 (46–74) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.1 (46–74)Conservative27.7 (15–41)
King—VaughanOntario · 2025: Con 61.5%Con 54 (38–67) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 61.5%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative53.5 (38–67)Liberal36.4 (22–51)
Kitchener CentreOntario · 2025: Con 34.2%Grn 46 (6–65) · Con 25 (12–43)	Conservative 34.2%	GrnGreengain from ConLikely	80%	Likely	Green46.4 (6–65)Conservative24.9 (12–43)Liberal21.7 (9–40)
Kitchener South—HespelerOntario · 2025: Con 47.9%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 42 (28–56)	Conservative 47.9%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal43.7 (29–58)Conservative41.9 (28–56)
Kitchener—ConestogaOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 48 (34–63) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal48.4 (34–63)Conservative39.7 (26–54)
La Pointe-de-l'ÎleQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.1%BQ 41 (27–55) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Bloc Québécois 43.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	62%	Leans	Bloc Québécois41.1 (27–55)Liberal36.9 (23–51)
La Prairie—AtatekenQuebec · 2025: Lib 44.1%Lib 46 (32–60) · BQ 32 (19–45)	Liberal 44.1%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal46.2 (32–60)Bloc Québécois31.9 (19–45)Conservative12.5 (4–23)
LaSalle—Émard—VerdunQuebec · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 51 (38–64) · BQ 19 (9–30)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal51.2 (38–64)Bloc Québécois18.8 (9–30)NDP13.3 (3–23)Conservative10.0 (3–19)
LabradorNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 34 (20–48)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal53.1 (38–67)Conservative33.9 (20–48)NDP10.6 (2–21)
Lac-Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 45 (29–60) · Lib 26 (12–42)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	85%	Likely	Bloc Québécois44.7 (29–60)Liberal26.2 (12–42)Conservative19.3 (7–33)
Lac-Saint-LouisQuebec · 2025: Lib 67.6%Lib 67 (55–78) · Con 20 (11–31)	Liberal 67.6%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal67.2 (55–78)Conservative20.4 (11–31)
LakelandAlberta · 2025: Con 81%Con 67 (51–80) · Lib 18 (7–30)	Conservative 81%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative66.5 (51–80)Liberal17.5 (7–30)
Lanark—FrontenacOntario · 2025: Con 50.4%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 42 (28–56)	Conservative 50.4%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal45.3 (31–60)Conservative42.0 (28–56)
Langley Township—Fraser HeightsBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.4%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 45 (30–58)	Conservative 51.4%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal45.3 (31–60)Conservative44.6 (30–58)
Laurentides—LabelleQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.6%BQ 43 (26–58) · Lib 35 (19–50)	Bloc Québécois 44.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	69%	Leans	Bloc Québécois42.6 (26–58)Liberal34.5 (19–50)Conservative10.4 (1–22)
Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec · 2025: Lib 52.1%Lib 49 (34–64) · NDP 24 (9–37)	Liberal 52.1%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal48.7 (34–64)NDP24.1 (9–37)Bloc Québécois13.6 (5–24)
Laval—Les ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.7%Lib 50 (36–62) · Con 28 (16–40)	Liberal 49.7%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal49.6 (36–62)Conservative27.7 (16–40)Bloc Québécois13.9 (5–23)
Leduc—WetaskiwinAlberta · 2025: Con 74.7%Con 59 (44–73) · Lib 23 (11–36)	Conservative 74.7%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative59.3 (44–73)Liberal23.1 (11–36)NDP10.6 (2–21)
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau LakesOntario · 2025: Con 50%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 42 (27–56)	Conservative 50%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Liberal43.9 (29–58)Conservative41.6 (27–56)
Les Pays-d'en-HautQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 43 (28–57) · BQ 33 (20–47)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal43.2 (28–57)Bloc Québécois33.3 (20–47)Conservative12.9 (3–24)
LethbridgeAlberta · 2025: Con 61.1%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 38 (23–53)	Conservative 61.1%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal37.9 (23–53)
London CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 56.7%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 23 (11–36)	Liberal 56.7%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal53.5 (39–68)Conservative23.1 (11–36)NDP16.1 (5–28)
London WestOntario · 2025: Lib 56.2%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 56.2%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal54.7 (40–69)Conservative29.2 (16–43)NDP10.3 (2–21)
London—FanshaweOntario · 2025: Con 40.6%NDP 38 (22–52) · Con 32 (19–47)	Conservative 40.6%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	59%	Toss-up	NDP37.8 (22–52)Conservative32.2 (19–47)Liberal25.4 (13–39)
Long Range MountainsNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 50.3%Con 47 (33–62) · Lib 42 (27–57)	Conservative 50.3%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative47.2 (33–62)Liberal41.8 (27–57)
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyneQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.4%Lib 48 (34–62) · BQ 25 (14–37)	Liberal 49.4%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal48.4 (34–62)Bloc Québécois25.1 (14–37)Conservative12.7 (4–23)
Longueuil—Saint-HubertQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 43 (29–56) · BQ 36 (22–50)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal42.7 (29–56)Bloc Québécois36.0 (22–50)
Louis-HébertQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.4%Lib 55 (39–70) · BQ 20 (8–34)	Liberal 55.4%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal54.8 (39–70)Bloc Québécois19.9 (8–34)Conservative15.5 (5–28)
Louis-Saint-Laurent—AkiawenhrahkQuebec · 2025: Con 44.9%Con 38 (22–53) · Lib 33 (18–49)	Conservative 44.9%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative38.4 (22–53)Liberal33.4 (18–49)Bloc Québécois17.9 (6–32)
Lévis—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 47.7%Con 41 (25–56) · Lib 30 (15–46)	Conservative 47.7%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative41.1 (25–56)Liberal29.8 (15–46)Bloc Québécois18.4 (7–32)
Madawaska—RestigoucheNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 58 (43–71) · Con 33 (19–46)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal57.5 (43–71)Conservative32.6 (19–46)
MalpequePrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57.6%Lib 57 (42–72) · Con 31 (17–45)	Liberal 57.6%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal56.8 (42–72)Conservative30.7 (17–45)
Marc-Aurèle-FortinQuebec · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 53 (40–67) · BQ 21 (11–33)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal53.3 (40–67)Bloc Québécois21.4 (11–33)Conservative15.9 (6–26)
Markham—StouffvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 51.4%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal51.4 (36–65)Conservative37.7 (24–52)
Markham—ThornhillOntario · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 56 (42–70) · Con 33 (20–47)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal56.4 (42–70)Conservative33.0 (20–47)
Markham—UnionvilleOntario · 2025: Con 50.7%Lib 54 (37–75) · Con 36 (15–52)	Conservative 50.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (37–75)Conservative36.3 (15–52)
Medicine Hat—Cardston—WarnerAlberta · 2025: Con 76.7%Con 61 (46–76) · Lib 24 (11–37)	Conservative 76.7%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative61.4 (46–76)Liberal23.5 (11–37)
Middlesex—LondonOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 43 (29–58) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Conservative43.1 (29–58)Liberal41.6 (27–56)
Milton East—Halton Hills SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 51 (36–64) · Con 39 (25–52)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal50.5 (36–64)Conservative38.7 (25–52)
MirabelQuebec · 2025: BQ 39.9%BQ 38 (24–53) · Lib 33 (19–48)	Bloc Québécois 39.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	63%	Leans	Bloc Québécois38.4 (24–53)Liberal33.3 (19–48)Conservative17.3 (6–29)
Miramichi—Grand LakeNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 48.2%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 44 (30–59)	Conservative 48.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal45.1 (31–59)Conservative44.2 (30–59)
Mission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 56.7%Con 50 (35–63) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 56.7%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative49.6 (35–63)Liberal39.1 (25–53)
Mississauga CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.9%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 33 (20–47)	Liberal 53.9%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal56.0 (41–70)Conservative33.1 (20–47)
Mississauga East—CooksvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 50.2%Lib 50 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 50.2%	LibLiberalLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal50.3 (36–65)Conservative37.4 (23–51)
Mississauga—Erin MillsOntario · 2025: Lib 55.7%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 55.7%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal55.6 (41–70)Conservative32.7 (19–47)
Mississauga—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 52.4%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 36 (23–51)	Liberal 52.4%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (37–66)Conservative36.4 (23–51)
Mississauga—MaltonOntario · 2025: Lib 53.3%Lib 53 (38–68) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 53.3%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal53.3 (38–68)Conservative34.8 (21–49)
Mississauga—StreetsvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal51.4 (37–65)Conservative37.1 (23–51)
Moncton—DieppeNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 62 (47–76) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.1 (47–76)Conservative25.5 (13–39)
Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’AcadieQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.1%Lib 49 (34–63) · BQ 32 (19–46)	Liberal 47.1%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal48.7 (34–63)Bloc Québécois32.0 (19–46)
MontcalmQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.6%BQ 45 (30–59) · Lib 27 (14–40)	Bloc Québécois 46.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	88%	Likely	Bloc Québécois44.9 (30–59)Liberal26.6 (14–40)Conservative18.0 (7–30)
Montmorency—CharlevoixQuebec · 2025: Con 34.5%Con 32 (17–46) · BQ 31 (16–46)	Conservative 34.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	39%	Toss-up	Conservative31.6 (17–46)Bloc Québécois31.3 (16–46)Liberal27.7 (14–43)
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—LaniganSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.9%Con 60 (45–74) · Lib 21 (9–34)	Conservative 71.9%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative60.2 (45–74)Liberal21.1 (9–34)NDP11.2 (3–21)
Mount RoyalQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 51 (38–64) · Con 36 (23–48)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal51.1 (38–64)Conservative35.7 (23–48)
Mégantic—L’Érable—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 52 (35–66) · Lib 22 (9–37)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeSolid	95%	Solid	Conservative51.9 (35–66)Liberal22.1 (9–37)Bloc Québécois15.5 (4–29)
Nanaimo—LadysmithBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 31 (17–46) · Lib 26 (13–41)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	49%	Toss-up	Conservative30.6 (17–46)Liberal26.3 (13–41)Green21.8 (4–37)NDP18.5 (7–32)
NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.8%Lib 65 (50–78) · Con 25 (13–38)	Liberal 63.8%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.8 (50–78)Conservative25.0 (13–38)
New Tecumseth—GwillimburyOntario · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	81%	Likely	Conservative51.1 (36–65)Liberal37.1 (23–51)
New Westminster—Burnaby—MaillardvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 35.1%Lib 39 (25–53) · NDP 33 (19–46)	Liberal 35.1%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal38.6 (25–53)NDP33.1 (19–46)Conservative24.1 (13–37)
Newmarket—AuroraOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 45 (31–59)	Conservative 50.6%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Liberal45.2 (31–60)Conservative45.2 (31–59)
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-LakeOntario · 2025: Con 49.1%Lib 44 (30–59) · Con 41 (27–55)	Conservative 49.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal44.3 (30–59)Conservative40.8 (27–55)
Niagara SouthOntario · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 42 (28–56) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative41.8 (28–56)Liberal41.2 (27–55)NDP10.2 (2–20)
Niagara WestOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 43 (29–58)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Conservative43.6 (29–58)Liberal43.4 (29–58)
Nipissing—TimiskamingOntario · 2025: Lib 47.2%Lib 48 (34–63) · Con 34 (21–48)	Liberal 47.2%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal48.4 (34–63)Conservative34.4 (21–48)NDP10.7 (2–21)
North Island—Powell RiverBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 38.7%Con 35 (22–48) · NDP 34 (20–47)	Conservative 38.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	45%	Toss-up	Conservative34.5 (22–48)NDP34.0 (20–47)Liberal26.0 (14–39)
North Vancouver—CapilanoBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 63 (48–77) · Con 26 (13–40)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal63.3 (48–77)Conservative26.1 (13–40)
Northumberland—ClarkeOntario · 2025: Con 49%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 41 (27–56)	Conservative 49%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal45.7 (31–60)Conservative41.3 (27–56)
Northwest TerritoriesNorthwest Territories · 2025: Lib 53.5%Lib 54 (36–72) · Con 25 (9–41)	Liberal 53.5%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal54.2 (36–72)Conservative24.9 (9–41)NDP16.5 (3–31)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—WestmountQuebec · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 63 (50–75) · Con 17 (8–26)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal62.7 (50–75)Conservative16.5 (8–26)
NunavutNunavut · 2025: NDP 37.3%NDP 40 (13–60) · Lib 39 (20–63)	NDP 37.3%	NDPNDPToss-up	51%	Toss-up	NDP39.9 (13–60)Liberal38.8 (20–63)Conservative18.6 (4–35)
Oakville EastOntario · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal50.8 (36–65)Conservative37.0 (23–51)
Oakville WestOntario · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 55 (41–69) · Con 36 (22–49)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal55.0 (41–69)Conservative35.5 (22–49)
Okanagan Lake West—South KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.9%Lib 47 (32–62) · Con 44 (29–59)	Conservative 50.9%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Liberal46.7 (32–62)Conservative43.9 (29–59)
OrléansOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 67 (52–79) · Con 21 (10–34)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal66.5 (52–79)Conservative21.4 (10–34)
OshawaOntario · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 42 (27–56) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Conservative41.6 (27–56)Liberal39.5 (26–54)NDP13.0 (4–24)
Ottawa CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 62.7%Lib 56 (40–71) · NDP 29 (14–43)	Liberal 62.7%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal55.9 (40–71)NDP28.9 (14–43)
Ottawa SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 65.2%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 20 (9–33)	Liberal 65.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.7 (48–76)Conservative20.0 (9–33)NDP11.1 (2–21)
Ottawa West—NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 20 (9–33)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.9 (46–75)Conservative19.9 (9–33)NDP12.5 (3–23)
Ottawa—Vanier—GloucesterOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 64 (49–77) · Con 15 (5–27)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.8 (49–77)Conservative14.9 (5–27)NDP13.1 (4–24)
OutremontQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 53 (40–67) · NDP 14 (4–25)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal53.2 (40–67)NDP14.2 (4–25)Bloc Québécois10.8 (3–20)Green10.2 (1–17)
OxfordOntario · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative44.8 (30–59)Liberal37.7 (24–52)
PapineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 53%Lib 52 (39–66) · NDP 20 (8–32)	Liberal 53%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal52.1 (39–66)NDP20.0 (8–32)Bloc Québécois14.2 (6–24)
ParklandAlberta · 2025: Con 75.2%Con 60 (45–74) · Lib 24 (11–37)	Conservative 75.2%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative60.3 (45–74)Liberal23.8 (11–37)
Parry Sound—MuskokaOntario · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 43 (28–57)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Conservative44.1 (30–58)Liberal42.8 (28–57)
Peace River—WestlockAlberta · 2025: Con 77.1%Con 67 (51–80) · Lib 18 (7–30)	Conservative 77.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative66.6 (51–80)Liberal17.5 (7–30)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Perth—WellingtonOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	60%	Leans	Conservative44.6 (30–59)Liberal40.6 (26–55)
PeterboroughOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 56 (41–69) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal55.7 (41–69)Conservative32.0 (19–46)
Pickering—BrooklinOntario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 56 (41–69) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 54.2%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal55.6 (41–69)Conservative32.2 (19–46)
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—VerchèresQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.1%BQ 44 (29–59) · Lib 38 (23–53)	Bloc Québécois 46.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	66%	Leans	Bloc Québécois44.1 (29–59)Liberal38.2 (23–53)
Pierrefonds—DollardQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 60 (48–72) · Con 27 (16–38)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.3 (48–72)Conservative26.8 (16–38)
Pitt Meadows—Maple RidgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.4%Lib 48 (34–62) · Con 41 (26–55)	Conservative 47.4%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal48.0 (34–62)Conservative40.6 (26–55)
Ponoka—DidsburyAlberta · 2025: Con 81.8%Con 68 (53–81) · NDP 18 (6–31)	Conservative 81.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative68.3 (53–81)NDP17.9 (6–31)
Pontiac—Kitigan ZibiQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 54 (38–69) · Con 23 (11–36)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal54.0 (38–69)Conservative22.6 (11–36)
Port Moody—CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 43.5%Lib 48 (33–61) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 43.5%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal47.5 (33–61)Conservative32.1 (19–46)NDP16.1 (6–27)
Portage—LisgarManitoba · 2025: Con 69.4%Con 58 (43–72) · Lib 28 (15–42)	Conservative 69.4%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative57.9 (43–72)Liberal27.9 (15–42)
Portneuf—Jacques-CartierQuebec · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 43 (27–58) · Lib 30 (15–45)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative42.9 (27–58)Liberal29.7 (15–45)Bloc Québécois17.0 (5–31)
Prescott—Russell—CumberlandOntario · 2025: Lib 54.8%Lib 56 (42–70) · Con 32 (18–45)	Liberal 54.8%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal56.3 (42–70)Conservative31.6 (18–45)
Prince AlbertSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.5%Con 59 (44–73) · Lib 24 (11–37)	Conservative 71.5%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative59.1 (44–73)Liberal23.6 (11–37)NDP13.3 (4–24)
Prince George—Peace River—Northern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 71.1%Con 64 (49–78) · Lib 22 (9–36)	Conservative 71.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative64.2 (49–78)Liberal21.5 (9–36)
ProvencherManitoba · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 31 (18–45)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeLikely	93%	Likely	Conservative54.6 (40–69)Liberal31.1 (18–45)
Québec CentreQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 47 (32–62) · BQ 33 (18–47)	Liberal 49.5%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal46.7 (32–62)Bloc Québécois32.7 (18–47)NDP10.9 (2–21)
Red DeerAlberta · 2025: Con 71.6%Con 58 (43–72) · Lib 27 (14–41)	Conservative 71.6%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative58.2 (43–72)Liberal27.1 (14–41)
Regina—LewvanSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 38 (24–53)	Conservative 50%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal48.2 (33–63)Conservative38.3 (24–53)
Regina—Qu'AppelleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 64%Con 52 (36–67) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 64%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative51.8 (36–67)Liberal31.9 (18–46)NDP11.5 (3–22)
Regina—WascanaSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50.1%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 38 (24–53)	Conservative 50.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal49.3 (34–64)Conservative38.3 (24–53)
RepentignyQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.2%BQ 43 (29–57) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Bloc Québécois 42.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	67%	Leans	Bloc Québécois43.1 (29–57)Liberal36.9 (23–51)Conservative10.4 (2–21)
Richmond Centre—MarpoleBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 49.6%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 45 (31–59)	Conservative 49.6%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Liberal45.1 (31–59)Conservative45.1 (31–59)
Richmond East—StevestonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 51 (36–64) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal50.7 (36–64)Conservative39.6 (26–54)
Richmond Hill SouthOntario · 2025: Con 52.3%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 43 (28–57)	Conservative 52.3%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative46.8 (32–61)Liberal42.8 (28–57)
Richmond—ArthabaskaQuebec · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 33 (18–47) · Lib 32 (17–47)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	44%	Toss-up	Conservative32.7 (18–47)Liberal31.9 (17–47)Bloc Québécois25.1 (12–40)
Riding MountainManitoba · 2025: Con 67.8%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 27 (14–41)	Conservative 67.8%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative55.9 (41–70)Liberal26.9 (14–41)NDP10.7 (2–21)
Rimouski—La MatapédiaQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 45 (29–61) · Lib 36 (20–52)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	71%	Leans	Bloc Québécois45.0 (29–61)Liberal35.8 (20–52)
Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 48 (33–61) · BQ 30 (17–43)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal47.8 (33–61)Bloc Québécois30.2 (17–43)Conservative12.7 (4–23)
Rivière-du-NordQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.8%BQ 42 (27–57) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Bloc Québécois 43.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	77%	Leans	Bloc Québécois42.1 (27–57)Liberal31.4 (17–45)Conservative16.0 (5–28)
Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec · 2025: NDP 41%NDP 48 (27–63) · Lib 28 (15–43)	NDP 41%	NDPNDPLikely	88%	Likely	NDP48.3 (27–63)Liberal27.5 (15–43)Bloc Québécois15.1 (5–27)
Saanich—Gulf IslandsBritish Columbia · 2025: Grn 39.1%Grn 46 (14–63) · Lib 30 (15–50)	Green 39.1%	GrnGreenLeans	78%	Leans	Green45.9 (14–63)Liberal29.6 (15–50)Conservative17.6 (6–33)
Sackville—Bedford—PrestonNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 62%Lib 63 (49–76) · Con 26 (13–38)	Liberal 62%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal63.0 (49–76)Conservative25.9 (13–38)
Saint John—KennebecasisNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 58.1%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 32 (18–45)	Liberal 58.1%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal57.8 (43–72)Conservative31.5 (18–45)
Saint John—St. CroixNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative46.6 (32–61)Liberal41.6 (27–56)
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 42 (27–57) · Lib 33 (19–49)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	71%	Leans	Bloc Québécois42.0 (27–57)Liberal33.2 (19–49)Conservative13.2 (3–26)
Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.3%BQ 43 (28–57) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Bloc Québécois 44.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	72%	Leans	Bloc Québécois42.7 (28–57)Liberal34.0 (20–48)Conservative11.8 (2–23)
Saint-LaurentQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.9%Lib 59 (45–70) · Con 24 (14–35)	Liberal 58.9%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal58.5 (45–70)Conservative24.4 (14–35)
Saint-Léonard—Saint-MichelQuebec · 2025: Lib 65.3%Lib 64 (51–75) · Con 17 (8–27)	Liberal 65.3%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal64.0 (51–75)Conservative17.1 (8–27)
Saint-Maurice—ChamplainQuebec · 2025: Lib 50%Lib 50 (34–66) · BQ 20 (7–34)	Liberal 50%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal50.0 (34–66)Bloc Québécois19.7 (7–34)Conservative19.3 (8–33)
Sarnia—Lambton—BkejwanongOntario · 2025: Con 53.1%Lib 44 (28–67) · Con 38 (16–54)	Conservative 53.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal44.2 (28–67)Conservative38.2 (16–54)NDP10.4 (2–20)
Saskatoon SouthSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 49.3%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 38 (23–52)	Conservative 49.3%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal45.3 (31–60)Conservative37.5 (23–52)NDP12.5 (3–23)
Saskatoon WestSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 40 (26–55) · Lib 31 (18–45)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative40.0 (26–55)Liberal31.0 (18–45)NDP24.4 (12–37)
Saskatoon—UniversitySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 48.9%Lib 46 (31–61) · Con 37 (23–52)	Conservative 48.9%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal46.2 (31–61)Conservative37.1 (23–52)NDP11.8 (3–22)
Sault Ste. Marie—AlgomaOntario · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal46.0 (31–60)Conservative36.1 (22–50)NDP12.0 (3–23)
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley EastOntario · 2025: Lib 57.3%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 31 (17–44)	Liberal 57.3%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal56.9 (42–71)Conservative30.6 (17–44)
Scarborough NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 62 (47–76) · Con 26 (14–39)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.0 (47–76)Conservative25.9 (14–39)
Scarborough SouthwestOntario · 2025: Lib 61.5%Lib 61 (45–76) · Con 22 (10–36)	Liberal 61.5%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.2 (45–76)Conservative22.3 (10–36)
Scarborough—AgincourtOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal54.1 (39–68)Conservative35.3 (22–49)
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 24 (12–38)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.5 (48–76)Conservative24.4 (12–38)
Scarborough—WoburnOntario · 2025: Lib 60.4%Lib 59 (45–73) · Con 27 (14–41)	Liberal 60.4%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.4 (45–73)Conservative26.8 (14–41)
Selkirk—Interlake—EastmanManitoba · 2025: Con 60.2%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 60.2%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative48.1 (33–63)Liberal35.7 (22–50)
SheffordQuebec · 2025: BQ 40.1%Lib 39 (23–54) · BQ 38 (23–54)	Bloc Québécois 40.1%	LibLiberalgain from BQToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal38.8 (23–54)Bloc Québécois38.2 (23–54)Conservative12.5 (2–25)
SherbrookeQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.3%Lib 50 (34–65) · BQ 25 (12–39)	Liberal 51.3%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal50.1 (34–65)Bloc Québécois24.6 (12–39)
Sherwood Park—Fort SaskatchewanAlberta · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative50.6 (36–65)Liberal33.8 (20–48)
Simcoe NorthOntario · 2025: Con 48.4%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 40 (26–54)	Conservative 48.4%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	60%	Leans	Liberal43.9 (29–58)Conservative39.9 (26–54)
Simcoe—GreyOntario · 2025: Con 52.1%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 43 (29–57)	Conservative 52.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative43.8 (29–58)Liberal43.2 (29–57)
Similkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenayBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 44.1%Con 40 (25–54) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 44.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Conservative39.6 (25–54)Liberal37.2 (23–52)NDP17.3 (7–29)
Skeena—Bulkley ValleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.2%Con 42 (28–57) · NDP 41 (25–55)	Conservative 47.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative42.0 (28–57)NDP41.1 (25–55)Liberal11.2 (3–22)
Souris—Moose MountainSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 84%Con 75 (61–86) · Lib 13 (3–25)	Conservative 84%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.6 (61–86)Liberal12.9 (3–25)
South Shore—St. MargaretsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.9%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 35 (21–48)	Liberal 54.9%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal57.9 (44–72)Conservative34.6 (21–48)
South Surrey—White RockBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 50.5%Lib 55 (41–68) · Con 37 (24–51)	Liberal 50.5%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal54.8 (41–68)Conservative37.3 (24–51)
Spadina—HarbourfrontOntario · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 59 (45–73) · Con 22 (10–35)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.3 (45–73)Conservative22.3 (10–35)NDP13.0 (4–23)
St. Albert—Sturgeon RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 63.9%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 37 (22–51)	Conservative 63.9%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative48.4 (33–63)Liberal36.7 (22–51)
St. Boniface—St. VitalManitoba · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 66 (51–78) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal65.6 (51–78)Conservative21.0 (9–34)
St. CatharinesOntario · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 51 (36–66) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal51.1 (36–66)Conservative32.7 (19–47)NDP11.3 (3–21)
St. John's EastNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 62.3%Lib 60 (45–75) · Con 20 (8–33)	Liberal 62.3%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.9 (45–75)Conservative20.0 (8–33)NDP16.8 (6–29)
Stormont—Dundas—GlengarryOntario · 2025: Con 56.3%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 40 (25–54)	Conservative 56.3%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative47.9 (33–62)Liberal39.7 (25–54)
SudburyOntario · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 50 (36–64) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal50.2 (36–64)Conservative31.0 (18–45)NDP13.6 (4–24)
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltOntario · 2025: Con 48.3%Con 42 (28–56) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 48.3%	ConConservativeToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Conservative41.8 (28–56)Liberal38.7 (25–53)NDP13.4 (4–24)
Surrey CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48%Lib 50 (36–64) · Con 37 (23–50)	Liberal 48%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal50.3 (36–64)Conservative36.6 (23–50)
Surrey NewtonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 38 (24–51)	Liberal 49.5%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal51.6 (37–66)Conservative37.5 (24–51)
Swift Current—Grasslands—KindersleySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 82%Con 72 (57–84) · Lib 15 (5–28)	Conservative 82%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative71.6 (57–84)Liberal15.3 (5–28)
Sydney—Glace BayNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal55.6 (41–70)Conservative33.0 (19–47)
Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 51 (36–67) · NDP 32 (17–46)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal51.1 (36–67)NDP31.7 (17–46)Conservative11.4 (2–23)
Terra Nova—The PeninsulasNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 48%Lib 46 (31–61) · Con 44 (30–59)	Conservative 48%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal46.1 (31–61)Conservative44.2 (30–59)
TerrebonneQuebec · 2025: Lib 38.7%Lib 41 (26–57) · BQ 36 (20–50)	Liberal 38.7%	LibLiberalLeans	64%	Leans	Liberal41.1 (26–57)Bloc Québécois35.5 (20–50)Conservative13.1 (3–24)
ThornhillOntario · 2025: Con 66.4%Con 58 (44–72) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 66.4%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative58.4 (44–72)Liberal31.7 (18–46)
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverOntario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 47 (33–62) · Con 34 (21–49)	Liberal 48.5%	LibLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal47.1 (33–62)Conservative34.4 (21–49)NDP12.3 (3–23)
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 53 (38–68) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal53.2 (38–68)Conservative27.7 (15–41)NDP12.7 (3–23)
Thérèse-De BlainvilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.8%Lib 48 (33–62) · BQ 30 (17–43)	Liberal 45.8%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal47.6 (33–62)Bloc Québécois29.6 (17–43)Conservative13.7 (4–24)
Tobique—MactaquacNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative52.5 (38–67)Liberal36.3 (22–51)
Toronto CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 64.3%Lib 61 (46–75) · NDP 19 (7–31)	Liberal 64.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal61.2 (46–75)NDP19.1 (7–31)Conservative13.5 (4–25)
Toronto—DanforthOntario · 2025: Lib 66.6%Lib 61 (46–75) · NDP 20 (8–33)	Liberal 66.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal61.4 (46–75)NDP20.4 (8–33)Conservative12.4 (3–24)
Toronto—St. Paul'sOntario · 2025: Lib 61.9%Lib 62 (48–76) · Con 25 (13–38)	Liberal 61.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.4 (48–76)Conservative24.8 (13–38)
Trois-RivièresQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 43 (28–59) · BQ 25 (12–39)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal43.4 (28–59)Bloc Québécois25.1 (12–39)Conservative20.9 (8–34)
University—RosedaleOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 61 (46–76) · Con 16 (4–28)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal61.4 (46–76)Conservative15.7 (4–28)NDP15.7 (4–28)
Vancouver CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 57 (42–70) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.5 (42–70)Conservative24.2 (12–37)NDP14.1 (4–25)
Vancouver EastBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 43.6%NDP 46 (30–60) · Lib 35 (22–50)	NDP 43.6%	NDPNDPLeans	76%	Leans	NDP46.0 (30–60)Liberal35.3 (22–50)Conservative12.3 (3–23)
Vancouver Fraserview—South BurnabyBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 52.3%Lib 56 (42–69) · Con 28 (16–41)	Liberal 52.3%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal55.9 (42–69)Conservative28.1 (16–41)NDP10.6 (2–20)
Vancouver GranvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 64 (49–76) · Con 23 (11–35)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.5 (49–76)Conservative22.7 (11–35)
Vancouver KingswayBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 37.2%NDP 40 (24–54) · Lib 37 (23–51)	NDP 37.2%	NDPNDPToss-up	57%	Toss-up	NDP39.7 (24–54)Liberal37.0 (23–51)Conservative18.5 (8–31)
Vancouver QuadraBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 66 (52–79) · Con 23 (12–36)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal66.3 (52–79)Conservative23.3 (12–36)
VaudreuilQuebec · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 58 (44–70) · Con 19 (9–29)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.7 (44–70)Conservative19.0 (9–29)Bloc Québécois14.1 (6–24)
Vaughan—WoodbridgeOntario · 2025: Con 60%Con 54 (40–69) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 60%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative54.4 (40–69)Liberal36.9 (23–51)
Vernon—Lake Country—MonasheeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 43 (28–58)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Conservative45.9 (31–60)Liberal42.9 (28–58)
VictoriaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 56 (40–71) · NDP 26 (12–39)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal55.9 (40–71)NDP25.5 (12–39)Conservative11.2 (1–23)
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-SoeursQuebec · 2025: Lib 63.7%Lib 62 (49–74) · Con 16 (7–25)	Liberal 63.7%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal62.2 (49–74)Conservative15.5 (7–25)
VimyQuebec · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 53 (39–66) · Con 21 (10–31)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal52.7 (39–66)Conservative20.5 (10–31)Bloc Québécois16.2 (7–27)
WaterlooOntario · 2025: Lib 59.5%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 25 (13–39)	Liberal 59.5%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal57.6 (43–72)Conservative25.1 (13–39)
Wellington—Halton Hills NorthOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 43 (28–56)	Conservative 50.6%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Liberal44.0 (29–58)Conservative42.5 (28–56)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky CountryBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.7%Lib 61 (47–74) · Con 27 (15–40)	Liberal 59.7%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.3 (47–74)Conservative26.7 (15–40)
WhitbyOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (37–66)Conservative36.1 (22–50)
WillowdaleOntario · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 54 (39–67) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.5 (39–67)Conservative36.4 (22–50)
Windsor WestOntario · 2025: Con 39%NDP 38 (22–53) · Con 31 (18–45)	Conservative 39%	NDPNDPgain from ConLeans	63%	Leans	NDP37.9 (22–53)Conservative30.9 (18–45)Liberal25.8 (13–40)
Windsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Con 45.8%Lib 43 (29–57) · Con 40 (26–54)	Conservative 45.8%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal43.0 (29–57)Conservative39.9 (26–54)NDP10.7 (2–21)
Winnipeg CentreManitoba · 2025: NDP 39.4%NDP 45 (29–59) · Lib 37 (23–52)	NDP 39.4%	NDPNDPLeans	70%	Leans	NDP44.8 (29–59)Liberal36.8 (23–52)Conservative12.6 (3–24)
Winnipeg NorthManitoba · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.6 (48–76)Conservative23.8 (12–37)
Winnipeg SouthManitoba · 2025: Lib 59%Lib 64 (49–77) · Con 25 (12–38)	Liberal 59%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal63.9 (49–77)Conservative24.5 (12–38)
Winnipeg South CentreManitoba · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 68 (53–81) · Con 18 (7–31)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal67.7 (53–81)Conservative18.0 (7–31)
Winnipeg WestManitoba · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 61 (47–75) · Con 28 (16–42)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal61.3 (47–75)Conservative28.4 (16–42)
YellowheadAlberta · 2025: Con 69.1%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 30 (17–44)	Conservative 69.1%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative55.7 (41–70)Liberal30.4 (17–44)
York CentreOntario · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative49.0 (34–63)Liberal41.1 (27–56)
York South—Weston—EtobicokeOntario · 2025: Lib 55.3%Lib 55 (39–69) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 55.3%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal54.5 (39–69)Conservative31.9 (19–46)
Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.5%Con 66 (52–80) · Lib 19 (7–31)	Conservative 77.5%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative66.2 (52–80)Liberal18.7 (7–31)
York—DurhamOntario · 2025: Con 55.6%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 55.6%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative49.5 (35–64)Liberal37.8 (24–52)
YukonYukon · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 52 (33–71) · Con 31 (13–48)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal52.3 (33–71)Conservative31.0 (13–48)NDP10.2 (0–23)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 20 May 2026, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Liberal	45.1	43.4–46.8	+0.3
Conservative	33.7	31.8–35.7	+0.1
NDP	9.8	7.8–11.7	−0.1
Bloc Québécois	6.1	5.6–6.7	−0.1
Green	2.7	2.0–3.4	−0.1
People’s Party	1.5	1.0–2.0	−0.1
Others	1.2		0

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 20 May 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 16 May 2026, in points.

Polls included (175)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
20 May	Abacus DataNew	1,920	±2.2	47	35	8	6	2	1
16 May	Liaison Strategies	1,526	±2.5	43	34	11	6	2	2
15 May	Nanos Research	1,035	±3.1	42.3	32.7	12	5.8	4.4	1.9
9 May	Liaison Strategies	1,526	±2.5	44	33	10	6	2	2
8 May	Nanos Research	1,036	±3.1	45.5	33.4	8.8	5.3	3.5	2
8 May	Research Co.	1,003	±3.1	46	31	11	7	3	1
5 May	Abacus Data	2,478	±2.0	46	36	8	6	3	1
2 May	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	45	33	9	6	2	2
1 May	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	44.8	32	11.4	5.6	3.4	1.4
26 Apr	Léger	1,521	±2.5	48	37	6	6	2	–

165 earlier polls

Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
25 Apr	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	45	34	9	6	3	2
24 Apr	Ekos	1,916	±2.2	44.5	31	12.5	5.8	3	2
24 Apr	Nanos Research	1,024	±3.1	44.6	32	11.5	5.4	3.5	1.1
22 Apr	Abacus Data	2,000	±2.2	45	36	8	7	2	1
20 Apr	Angus Reid	2,013	±2.0	42	35	12	7	2	–
18 Apr	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	45	33	10	6	3	2
17 Apr	Nanos Research	1,022	±3.1	45.8	31.5	11.9	5.3	3.5	0.9
11 Apr	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	33	10	7	3	2
10 Apr	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	45.3	32	12.2	5.4	3.5	1
8 Apr	Abacus Data	1,680	±2.4	44	38	8	6	3	1
8 Apr	Spark Insights	4,026	–	46	32	9	6	–	–
7 Apr	Ipsos	1,000	±3.8	45	33	9	7	2	2
4 Apr	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	33	9	6	3	2
3 Apr	Nanos Research	1,025	±3.1	45.7	30.5	12.5	5.6	4.2	1.1
30 Mar	Léger	1,618	±2.4	48	34	6	7	3	–
28 Mar	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	45	33	9	6	2	2
27 Mar	Nanos Research	1,029	±3.1	46.5	32.2	11.3	5.1	3.6	1.1
26 Mar	Spark Insights	4,000	–	46	30	11	5	–	–
24 Mar	Abacus Data	1,515	±2.5	44	37	9	6	3	1
21 Mar	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	46	32	9	7	3	2
20 Mar	Nanos Research	1,024	±3.1	45.7	32.9	11.5	4.8	3.7	0.8
17 Mar	Angus Reid	4,005	±1.5	44	36	9	7	2	–
15 Mar	Ekos	1,047	±3.0	47.5	27	15.1	4.1	4.5	1.5
14 Mar	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	45	31	8	6	3	4
13 Mar	Nanos Research	1,015	±3.1	47.8	31.1	11.2	4.5	4	1.1
11 Mar	Abacus Data	1,931	±2.2	46	35	7	7	3	1
7 Mar	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	30	9	6	3	4
6 Mar	Nanos Research	1,023	±3.1	46	32.5	10	5.2	4.7	0.7
6 Mar	Spark Insights	3,055	–	46	31	10	5	–	–
2 Mar	Léger	1,627	±2.4	49	35	5	5	3	–
2 Mar	Mainstreet Research	1,276	±2.7	46	36	7	4	2	3
28 Feb	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	33	9	6	3	2
27 Feb	Nanos Research	1,015	±3.1	43.6	33.2	11.4	5.1	4.9	0.7
26 Feb	Ipsos	1,001	±3.8	44	36	8	7	3	1
24 Feb	Pollara	2,410	±2.0	47	34	9	7	–	–
23 Feb	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	44	38	7	6	3	1
23 Feb	Angus Reid	1,650	±2.0	45	32	10	7	4	–
21 Feb	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	45	33	10	6	2	2
20 Feb	Nanos Research	1,021	±3.1	41.3	33.7	10.6	7.6	4.9	0.9
17 Feb	Innovative Research	1,838	–	44	37	8	6	3	–
14 Feb	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	34	9	6	3	2
13 Feb	Nanos Research	1,018	±3.1	38.1	36.5	11.1	8.3	4.4	0.7
10 Feb	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.0	44	37	8	6	3	1
7 Feb	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	35	9	7	3	2
6 Feb	Nanos Research	1,049	±3.0	39.1	35.2	12.6	8.8	2.9	0.9
5 Feb	Research Co.	1,001	±3.1	45	32	10	7	3	2
2 Feb	Innovative Research	1,666	–	40	38	10	7	3	–
2 Feb	Mainstreet Research	1,276	±2.7	51	35.5	4	5.5	2.2	0.6
31 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	35	8	7	3	2
30 Jan	Ekos	1,453	±2.6	44.4	29.5	13.8	5.3	3.9	1.6
30 Jan	Nanos Research	1,055	±3.0	38.9	35.2	12.5	9.2	2.5	1.3
27 Jan	Abacus Data	2,498	±2.0	43	39	8	6	2	2
26 Jan	Angus Reid	1,420	±2.6	41	38	10	7	2	–
26 Jan	Léger	1,611	±2.4	47	38	5	6	2	–
24 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	34	10	8	3	2
23 Jan	Nanos Research	1,053	±3.0	39.2	35.2	11.6	8	3.6	2.1
17 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	40	35	11	8	3	1
16 Jan	Abacus Data	2,008	±2.2	41	39	8	7	3	2
16 Jan	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	38.8	34.8	11.5	7.7	4.6	2.4
14 Jan	Abacus Data	1,850	±2.3	40	40	8	7	3	1
12 Jan	Pallas Data	1,120	±2.9	40	37	11	7	3	–
10 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	39	36	12	8	3	1
9 Jan	Nanos Research	1,054	±3.0	38.8	35.5	10.9	7.6	3.9	2.1
3 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	38	37	12	7	3	1
2 Jan	Nanos Research	1,059	±3.0	37.7	35.5	11.7	7.6	3.9	1.9
28 Dec 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	39	37	11	7	3	2
26 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,054	±3.0	38.4	34.7	11.3	7.4	3.9	1.7
21 Dec 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	38	38	12	7	3	2
19 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,059	±3.0	36.3	35.6	11.4	7.1	3.5	1.8
15 Dec 2025	Ipsos	1,502	±3.1	40	37	9	9	2	2
15 Dec 2025	Pallas Data	1,074	±3.0	40.9	37.7	7.9	8.2	3.6	–
14 Dec 2025	Innovative Research	2,159	–	39	39	10	7	4	–
12 Dec 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,098	±3.0	41	42	6	7	1	1
12 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	38.5	36	10.8	6.7	3.7	1.9
9 Dec 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	41	9	6	2	1
5 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,042	±3.0	39.1	37.8	9.5	6.3	3.3	1.8
1 Dec 2025	Abacus Data	1,802	±2.3	41	41	7	7	2	1
1 Dec 2025	Angus Reid	4,025	±1.5	40	37	10	9	3	–
1 Dec 2025	Innovative Research	1,846	–	39	38	9	8	4	–
30 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	41	36	12	5	2	2
30 Nov 2025	Léger	1,579	±2.5	43	36	8	9	4	–
28 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	41.9	38.2	8.4	7.3	2.7	1.2
27 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	2,421	±2.0	41	40	8	7	2	1
21 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,053	±3.0	41.9	37.2	9.1	7	2.7	1.6
18 Nov 2025	Kolosowski Strategies	890	±3.2	44	44	3	6	1	1
14 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	40.2	38.2	10.1	7.4	2.2	1.3
11 Nov 2025	Ekos	1,191	±2.8	44.1	33.2	10.7	5.4	3.3	1.8
8 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	1,244	±1.8	40	23	9	8	–	–
8 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	36	10	6	2	1
8 Nov 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,084	±3.0	44	40	5	6	2	2
7 Nov 2025	Angus Reid	2,038	±1.5	40	38	9	8	3	–
7 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,122	±2.9	40	36.8	11.4	7.5	2.3	1.2
6 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	1,916	±2.2	40	41	8	7	2	1
4 Nov 2025	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.4	35.5	8	5.8	3.5	2
4 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	38	11	5	2	1
3 Nov 2025	Léger	1,585	±2.5	43	38	7	7	4	–
31 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	924	±3.0	39.3	37.1	12.5	6.6	1.7	1.5
29 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	2,922	±1.8	40	42	8	6	3	1
24 Oct 2025	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.5	32.4	12.4	5.7	3	2
24 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	39.4	37	12.7	7	1.6	1.2
17 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,021	±3.1	39.3	36.6	12.1	6.8	2.8	1.3
15 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	4,501	±1.5	40	41	8	7	3	1
15 Oct 2025	Pallas Data	1,206	±2.8	41	37	11	6	2	2
10 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	38.5	36.8	12.2	6.5	3.9	1.4
5 Oct 2025	Léger	1,562	±2.5	44	38	6	7	3	–
3 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	39.1	37.9	11.5	6.2	4	0.9
1 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	1,504	±2.5	40	41	7	7	3	2
26 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,030	±3.1	40.7	36.6	11.9	4.8	4.3	1.2
22 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	1,570	±2.0	38	41	10	8	2	1
21 Sep 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	37	10	5	2	2
19 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	40.6	35.7	11.6	5.5	3.2	2.2
17 Sep 2025	Abacus Data	2,230	±2.1	40	40	8	7	3	1
12 Sep 2025	Ekos	1,614	±2.4	42	34	12.6	5.2	3	2
12 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,049	±3.0	41.8	34.5	12.8	5.5	2.5	1.9
12 Sep 2025	Research Co.	1,003	±3.1	43	38	8	6	2	1
8 Sep 2025	Ipsos	1,001	±3.8	43	39	7	7	1	2
7 Sep 2025	Léger	1,592	±2.5	47	38	6	6	2	–
5 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	42.7	32.9	12.8	5.2	3.5	1.6
4 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	3,656	±1.5	38	40	10	8	2	1
2 Sep 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	43	40	6	7	2	1
1 Sep 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,008	±3.1	42.3	40.4	8.4	5	1.2	1.6
29 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,009	±3.1	43.3	32.4	12.7	6.2	2.9	1.6
27 Aug 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	10	5	2	2
22 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,045	±3.0	43.7	34.2	10.7	5.5	3.3	1.6
19 Aug 2025	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	39	41	7	7	2	2
15 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,050	±3.0	44.4	32.4	11.6	4.9	3.2	2.8
8 Aug 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	11	6	3	1
8 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,094	±3.0	44.8	31.9	11.5	6.1	2.6	2.5
7 Aug 2025	Abacus Data	1,686	±2.4	43	40	8	6	1.5	1.5
4 Aug 2025	Léger	1,617	±2.4	46	36	6	7	3	–
1 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,096	±3.0	43.7	32.5	12	5.3	2.5	3
1 Aug 2025	Pallas Data	1,301	±2.7	43.2	37.6	7.5	6.3	2.2	–
28 Jul 2025	Innovative Research	3,732	–	41	39	9	7	4	–
25 Jul 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	43	36	10	6	3	1
25 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	43.6	33.5	12.1	5.9	2.3	1.8
18 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,026	±3.1	44.3	34	10.3	6.6	2.3	2
15 Jul 2025	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	43	40	7	6	3	1
14 Jul 2025	Ekos	1,817	±2.3	43.2	30.5	13	5.5	3.5	3.6
11 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,047	±3.0	44.5	33.8	11.1	5.9	2.1	1.9
6 Jul 2025	Léger	1,546	±2.5	48	35	7	6	3	–
4 Jul 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	46	35	9	6	2	1
4 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	45.1	32.6	11.5	6.2	1.8	1.8
2 Jul 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	40	9	7	2	2
2 Jul 2025	Research Co.	1,001	±3.1	47	37	6	6	2	1
30 Jun 2025	Innovative Research	4,029	–	43	38	8	6	3	–
27 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,076	±3.0	44.5	31.4	12.8	5.9	2.5	1.7
26 Jun 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,168	±2.9	47	38	6	3	3	1
20 Jun 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	38	11	6	3	1
20 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,090	±3.0	45.2	30.8	12.2	6.1	2.9	1.5
19 Jun 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±1.9	42	39	7	6	3	1
13 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,080	±3.0	44.2	32.2	11.4	6.3	3.2	1.7
6 Jun 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	39	9	6	2	1
6 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	42.6	32.8	12	6.5	3.9	1.3
5 Jun 2025	Abacus Data	2,585	±1.9	42	39	8	6	3	1
4 Jun 2025	Ekos	1,529	±2.5	43.9	32	12.7	5.2	3	3
30 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	41.7	36.4	10.5	6.5	3.4	1.1
30 May 2025	Spark Insights	3,450	–	41	40	8	7	–	–
23 May 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	44	39	8	6	1	1
23 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,127	±3.0	40.4	38.6	9.8	5.9	3.7	1.3
22 May 2025	Innovative Research	2,517	–	42	39	8	6	3	–
21 May 2025	Abacus Data	2,273	±2.1	41	40	8	7	3	1
16 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,127	±2.9	41.4	39.6	8.5	4.7	3.9	1.3
9 May 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	45	40	7	6	1	1
9 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,259	±2.8	41.5	40.5	7.8	5.1	3.3	1.3
2 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,297	±2.7	41.8	39.2	7.9	5.8	3.2	1.3

National polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s federal polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2025 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 172 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 199 projections, to 2 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	LibLiberal	ConConservative	NDPNDP	BQBloc Québécois	GrnGreen	LibLiberal maj.	ConConservative maj.	Minority
3 Oct 2026	Liaison Strategies	226	82	13	20	2	92%	2%	6%
2 Oct 2026	Nanos Research	225	83	13	20	2	92%	2%	7%
26 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	223	85	13	20	2	91%	2%	7%
25 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	222	86	12	20	2	91%	2%	7%
23 Sep 2026	Abacus Data	220	88	12	21	2	90%	2%	8%
19 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	221	87	13	20	2	90%	2%	8%
18 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	221	88	12	20	2	90%	2%	8%
12 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	219	88	13	21	2	90%	2%	8%

192 earlier projections

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 343 ridings. The national polling average sets each party’s change since that election. A rule fitted on the federal elections since 2006 turns it into a change for each of seven regions, and polls of a single province or region, from the pollsters’ own releases, correct that rule where they exist. Each riding moves with its region, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2025 share, and the ridings are adjusted so that each region reproduces its estimate. The Bloc Québécois runs only in Quebec. A first-term member running again gains a few points and an open seat loses a few; in Quebec, ridings with more French speakers move further in the direction of the province-wide change; members who crossed the floor take a small part of their 2025 vote to their new party.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a national polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from the six federal elections from 2008 to 2025. Tested on each of those elections with only the polls published before it, and with every size fitted on the other five, the projected leader won 82.9% of 1,973 ridings, and 90% ranges contained 93.6% of riding vote shares. Local campaigns, candidates other than incumbents and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2025 election results