Federal seat projection, 9 January 2026

As of 9 January 2026, from 103 polls

No federal election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the national polling average since that election, adjusted region by region with provincial and regional polls, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 3 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 9 January 2026.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the Liberals win a median of 161 seats (90% range 97–225) and a majority in 37%; the Conservatives 136 seats (90% range 75–195) and a majority in 14%; the Bloc Québécois 32 seats (90% range 19–47); the NDP 12 seats (90% range 4–20); the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–3). No party wins a majority in 48%.

Liberal majority
37%
Most seats in 65% of simulations
Conservative majority
14%
Most seats in 35% of simulations
No majority
48%
35 ridings with no party above 60%

172 for a majority

Liberal

161 seats (97–225) · majority 37%

Conservative

136 seats (75–195) · majority 14%

NDP

12 seats (4–20)

Bloc Québécois

32 seats (19–47)

Green

2 seats (0–3)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 172 of 343 seats. People’s Party and Other win no seat in the median simulation; People’s Party wins at least one in <1%, Other wins at least one in <1%.

Seat distributions

172 for a majority

Liberal

Median 161, 90%: 97–225

Majority in 37%

Most frequent: 162 (1.3%)

Conservative

Median 136, 90%: 75–195

Majority in 14%

Most frequent: 135 (1.4%)

NDP

Median 12, 90%: 4–20

Most frequent: 12 (8.4%)

Bloc Québécois

Median 32, 90%: 19–47

Most frequent: 29 (5.3%)

Green

Median 2, 90%: 0–3

Most frequent: 2 (51.8%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Liberal	161	97 to 225	162 seats, 1.3% of simulations	37%
Conservative	136	75 to 195	135 seats, 1.4% of simulations	14%
NDP	12	4 to 20	12 seats, 8.4% of simulations	0%
Bloc Québécois	32	19 to 47	29 seats, 5.3% of simulations	0%
Green	2	0 to 3	2 seats, 51.8% of simulations	0%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 172 of 343 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Nanos Research, fieldwork to 9 Jan 2026, 1,054 respondentsLiberal 38.8 · Conservative 35.5 · NDP 10.9 · Bloc Québécois 7.6 · Green 3.9 · People’s Party 2.1

Change since 3 Jan 2026

Median seats: Liberal 0, Conservative 0, NDP 0, Bloc Québécois −1, Green 0.
Chance of a majority, in points: Liberal 0, Conservative 0; no majority 0.
Projected leader changed in 1 riding: Cowichan—Malahat—Langford (Conservative to NDP).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn
Solid 95%+	46	35	1	11	0
Likely 80–95%	56	37	4	11	2
Leans 60–80%	45	51	4	5	0
Toss-up <60%	35

Canada

Ottawa–Gatineau

Vancouver

Greater Toronto

Montreal

Calgary

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Seats changing hands

Won in 2025Projected

LibLiberal169

ConConservative144

NDPNDP7

BQBloc Québécois22

GrnGreen1

LibLiberal147

ConConservative123

NDPNDP9

BQBloc Québécois27

GrnGreen2

Toss-upToss-up35

Ridings by party: won in 2025, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2025	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
LibLiberal	169	147	4	5	21
ConConservative	144	123	–	8	13
NDPNDP	7	9	3	–	1
BQBloc Québécois	22	27	5	–	–
GrnGreen	1	2	1	–	–
Toss-up		35

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2025 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2025 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Liberal172nd-best riding: Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge, 41% · chance of a majority 37%

Conservative172nd-best riding: Willowdale, 30% · chance of a majority 14%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 172 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 172nd-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

By region

2025 vote projected vote or median seats 90% range of seats 2025 seats

British Columbia43 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		38.7%, 2025: 41.2%		19 seats, 90% range 7 to 30; 2025: 19
Lib		37.8%, 2025: 41.8%		18−2 seats, 90% range 7 to 30; 2025: 20
NDP		16.2%, 2025: 13.0%		5+2 seats, 90% range 1 to 8; 2025: 3
Grn		5.8%, 2025: 3.0%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
PPC		1.4%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Alberta37 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		56.9%, 2025: 63.6%		30−4 seats, 90% range 22 to 35; 2025: 34
Lib		27.3%, 2025: 27.9%		5+3 seats, 90% range 1 to 13; 2025: 2
NDP		10.7%, 2025: 6.3%		2+1 seats, 90% range 1 to 2; 2025: 1
PPC		2.1%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		1.6%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Manitoba and Saskatchewan28 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		49.9%, 2025: 54.9%		18−2 seats, 90% range 13 to 21; 2025: 20
Lib		31.2%, 2025: 34.1%		8+1 seats, 90% range 5 to 13; 2025: 7
NDP		14.0%, 2025: 9.4%		2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1
Grn		2.1%, 2025: 0.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.7%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Ontario122 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		44.4%, 2025: 49.2%		67−3 seats, 90% range 34 to 99; 2025: 70
Con		40.2%, 2025: 43.8%		52 seats, 90% range 19 to 84; 2025: 52
NDP		9.2%, 2025: 4.8%		2+2 seats, 90% range 0 to 5; 2025: 0
Grn		3.0%, 2025: 1.1%		1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 0
PPC		1.7%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Quebec78 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		36.0%, 2025: 42.6%		36−8 seats, 90% range 23 to 50; 2025: 44
BQ		34.5%, 2025: 27.7%		32+10 seats, 90% range 19 to 47; 2025: 22
Con		19.5%, 2025: 23.3%		8−3 seats, 90% range 3 to 14; 2025: 11
NDP		6.0%, 2025: 4.5%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
Grn		2.5%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.5%, 2025: 0.8%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Atlantic32 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		51.0%, 2025: 55.5%		24 seats, 90% range 16 to 30; 2025: 24
Con		33.9%, 2025: 38.0%		8 seats, 90% range 2 to 16; 2025: 8
NDP		8.7%, 2025: 4.3%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		3.1%, 2025: 1.1%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.4%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Territories3 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		46.2%, 2025: 50.5%		2 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 2
NDP		18.3%, 2025: 13.4%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 1
Con		31.2%, 2025: 34.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 0
Grn		3.3%, 2025: 1.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Vote: each party’s share of the valid vote in 2025 and the projection’s estimate for the region now, on one scale (0–70%) for every region. Seats: the median and the middle 90% of the simulations, on each region’s own scale, and the change in the median from the 2025 result. Regions as in the model: Manitoba and Saskatchewan together; the three territories together.

All 343 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.

All 343 ridings: 2025 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abbotsford—South LangleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 43.1%Con 52 (38–66) · Lib 35 (22–49)	Conservative 43.1%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative52.0 (38–66)Liberal35.1 (22–49)
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouQuebec · 2025: Lib 41.2%BQ 39 (25–54) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Liberal 41.2%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois39.4 (25–54)Liberal36.2 (22–50)Conservative17.7 (7–30)
Abitibi—TémiscamingueQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.4%BQ 58 (42–73) · Lib 19 (6–33)	Bloc Québécois 49.4%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	98%	Solid	Bloc Québécois58.1 (42–73)Liberal19.0 (6–33)Conservative14.8 (4–27)
Acadie—AnnapolisNova Scotia · 2025: Con 47.7%Lib 47 (31–68) · Con 37 (17–53)	Conservative 47.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal47.3 (31–68)Conservative37.3 (17–53)
Acadie—BathurstNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 67.5%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 23 (11–35)	Liberal 67.5%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.1 (47–75)Conservative22.6 (11–35)
Ahuntsic-CartiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 61%Lib 54 (40–67) · BQ 22 (11–34)	Liberal 61%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal53.5 (40–67)Bloc Québécois22.3 (11–34)Conservative12.7 (4–22)
Airdrie—CochraneAlberta · 2025: Con 71.2%Con 64 (49–77) · Lib 23 (11–36)	Conservative 71.2%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative63.7 (49–77)Liberal23.0 (11–36)
AjaxOntario · 2025: Lib 56.3%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 34 (21–48)	Liberal 56.3%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal53.1 (38–67)Conservative34.2 (21–48)
Alfred-PellanQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 47 (33–61) · BQ 26 (15–39)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal46.9 (33–61)Bloc Québécois26.4 (15–39)Conservative18.1 (8–29)
Algonquin—Renfrew—PembrokeOntario · 2025: Con 55.7%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 55.7%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative51.7 (37–66)Liberal33.2 (20–47)
Argenteuil—La Petite-NationQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.5%Lib 39 (24–53) · BQ 30 (17–45)	Liberal 47.5%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal39.0 (24–53)Bloc Québécois30.4 (17–45)Conservative20.8 (9–33)
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillOntario · 2025: Con 54.7%Con 53 (39–67) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 54.7%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative53.2 (39–67)Liberal36.7 (23–51)
AvalonNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal55.3 (40–69)Conservative30.7 (18–45)
Barrie South—InnisfilOntario · 2025: Con 57.8%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 57.8%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative54.1 (39–68)Liberal33.6 (20–48)
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative47.7 (33–62)Liberal39.4 (25–54)
Battle River—CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 82.8%Con 75 (61–88) · Lib 11 (1–23)	Conservative 82.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative75.3 (61–88)Liberal10.8 (1–23)
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow LakeSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 75.8%Con 70 (55–83) · Lib 16 (5–28)	Conservative 75.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative70.2 (55–83)Liberal16.2 (5–28)
Bay of QuinteOntario · 2025: Lib 50.4%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 50.4%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal47.2 (33–61)Conservative38.9 (25–53)
Beaches—East YorkOntario · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 62 (46–77) · Con 19 (7–33)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.0 (46–77)Conservative19.4 (7–33)NDP11.6 (2–23)
BeauceQuebec · 2025: Con 59.7%Con 56 (40–71) · BQ 19 (7–33)	Conservative 59.7%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative56.1 (40–71)Bloc Québécois19.4 (7–33)Liberal12.4 (1–26)
Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—HuntingdonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 52 (37–67) · Lib 24 (12–37)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois52.3 (37–67)Liberal23.9 (12–37)Conservative15.0 (5–26)
Beauport—LimoilouQuebec · 2025: Lib 35.6%BQ 35 (21–51) · Lib 31 (16–45)	Liberal 35.6%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois35.2 (21–51)Liberal30.5 (16–45)Conservative24.1 (11–38)
BeauséjourNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal54.8 (40–69)Conservative29.3 (16–43)
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—LévisQuebec · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 44 (28–59) · BQ 26 (12–41)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeLikely	83%	Likely	Conservative43.5 (28–59)Bloc Québécois26.0 (12–41)Liberal21.4 (8–36)
Beloeil—ChamblyQuebec · 2025: BQ 48.3%BQ 57 (41–71) · Lib 25 (12–39)	Bloc Québécois 48.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois56.7 (41–71)Liberal24.8 (12–39)
Berthier—MaskinongéQuebec · 2025: BQ 35%BQ 42 (26–58) · NDP 25 (8–39)	Bloc Québécois 35%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	85%	Likely	Bloc Québécois41.6 (26–58)NDP24.7 (8–39)Liberal16.1 (5–29)Conservative12.5 (3–24)
BourassaQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 54 (40–67) · BQ 22 (11–33)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal53.8 (40–67)Bloc Québécois21.6 (11–33)Conservative13.5 (5–23)
Bow RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 78.9%Con 73 (58–85) · Lib 16 (5–28)	Conservative 78.9%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.6 (58–85)Liberal15.5 (5–28)
Bowmanville—Oshawa NorthOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative46.3 (31–60)Liberal40.9 (27–55)
Brampton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal45.8 (31–60)Conservative41.3 (27–55)
Brampton EastOntario · 2025: Lib 48.6%Lib 44 (30–59) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 48.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Liberal44.3 (30–59)Conservative41.7 (28–56)
Brampton North—CaledonOntario · 2025: Lib 49%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 44 (30–59)	Liberal 49%	LibLiberalToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal44.5 (30–59)Conservative44.2 (30–59)
Brampton SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 45 (30–60) · Con 45 (30–59)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal45.3 (30–60)Conservative44.7 (30–59)
Brampton WestOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative48.6 (34–63)Liberal41.2 (27–55)
Brampton—Chinguacousy ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 44 (30–59) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal44.1 (30–59)Conservative41.1 (27–55)
Brandon—SourisManitoba · 2025: Con 62.2%Con 57 (43–71) · NDP 19 (8–31)	Conservative 62.2%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative57.2 (43–71)NDP19.3 (8–31)Liberal19.1 (8–31)
Brantford—Brant South—Six NationsOntario · 2025: Con 52.4%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 52.4%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal36.1 (22–50)
Brome—MissisquoiQuebec · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 42 (27–57) · BQ 34 (20–49)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal41.9 (27–57)Bloc Québécois34.4 (20–49)Conservative14.7 (4–27)
Brossard—Saint-LambertQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.2%Lib 56 (42–68) · BQ 18 (9–29)	Liberal 62.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal55.8 (42–68)Bloc Québécois18.2 (9–29)Conservative16.7 (7–27)
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 49 (34–62) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLikely	81%	Likely	Conservative48.5 (34–62)Liberal35.0 (21–49)
BurlingtonOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–52)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal50.7 (36–65)Conservative37.3 (23–52)
Burlington North—Milton WestOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 48 (34–63) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal48.1 (34–63)Conservative41.1 (26–55)
Burnaby CentralBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 42.2%Lib 40 (26–54) · Con 34 (21–48)	Liberal 42.2%	LibLiberalLeans	64%	Leans	Liberal39.8 (26–54)Conservative34.1 (21–48)NDP21.7 (10–34)
Burnaby North—SeymourBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.1%Lib 55 (40–68) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 59.1%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal54.5 (40–68)Conservative32.1 (19–46)
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—AlnôbakQuebec · 2025: BQ 47%BQ 56 (39–71) · Lib 19 (7–33)	Bloc Québécois 47%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois55.6 (39–71)Liberal18.9 (7–33)Conservative16.5 (5–30)
Calgary CentreAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 44 (29–58)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Liberal44.8 (30–59)Conservative43.5 (29–58)
Calgary ConfederationAlberta · 2025: Lib 48.1%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 48.1%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal49.0 (34–63)Conservative37.8 (24–52)
Calgary CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 37 (22–51)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative52.1 (37–66)Liberal36.6 (22–51)
Calgary EastAlberta · 2025: Con 60.5%Con 53 (39–68) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Conservative 60.5%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative53.3 (39–68)Liberal30.9 (17–45)
Calgary HeritageAlberta · 2025: Con 61.4%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 61.4%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative54.6 (40–69)Liberal34.1 (20–48)
Calgary McKnightAlberta · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 43 (29–57)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Conservative45.0 (31–59)Liberal43.0 (29–57)
Calgary MidnaporeAlberta · 2025: Con 65.5%Con 58 (43–72) · Lib 29 (16–43)	Conservative 65.5%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative58.3 (43–72)Liberal29.2 (16–43)
Calgary Nose HillAlberta · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 52 (37–67) · Lib 35 (21–50)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative52.4 (37–67)Liberal35.3 (21–50)
Calgary ShepardAlberta · 2025: Con 68%Con 61 (46–75) · Lib 28 (15–41)	Conservative 68%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative60.7 (46–75)Liberal27.6 (15–41)
Calgary Signal HillAlberta · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 55 (41–70) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative55.2 (41–70)Liberal34.1 (20–48)
Calgary SkyviewAlberta · 2025: Con 55.4%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 55.4%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative52.8 (38–67)Liberal36.8 (23–51)
CambridgeOntario · 2025: Con 48.6%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 48.6%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal39.3 (25–53)
Cape Breton—Canso—AntigonishNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.6%Lib 47 (32–62) · Con 40 (25–54)	Liberal 51.6%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal47.1 (32–62)Conservative39.5 (25–54)
Cape SpearNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 68.3%Lib 64 (49–77) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 68.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.7 (49–77)Conservative21.1 (9–34)
CardiganPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57%Lib 53 (37–68) · Con 34 (19–49)	Liberal 57%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal52.7 (37–68)Conservative34.1 (19–49)
Cariboo—Prince GeorgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 60.3%Con 57 (43–71) · Lib 27 (14–40)	Conservative 60.3%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative57.4 (43–71)Liberal26.5 (14–40)
CarletonOntario · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 49 (35–63) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal48.9 (35–63)Conservative41.0 (27–55)
Carlton Trail—Eagle CreekSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.4%Con 72 (57–84) · Lib 15 (4–26)	Conservative 77.4%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative71.5 (57–84)Liberal14.5 (4–26)
Central NewfoundlandNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 54.1%Con 50 (35–65) · Lib 40 (25–54)	Conservative 54.1%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative49.9 (35–65)Liberal39.6 (25–54)
Central NovaNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 47 (33–62) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal47.3 (33–62)Conservative38.8 (25–53)
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesQuebec · 2025: Con 42.4%Con 38 (22–52) · Lib 27 (13–42)	Conservative 42.4%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative37.5 (22–52)Liberal27.3 (13–42)Bloc Québécois26.6 (13–41)
CharlottetownPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 64.8%Lib 59 (43–74) · Con 25 (12–39)	Liberal 64.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.6 (43–74)Conservative25.3 (12–39)
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 31 (18–45)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative52.8 (38–67)Liberal31.3 (18–45)
Chicoutimi—Le FjordQuebec · 2025: Con 34.1%Lib 50 (33–67) · BQ 33 (16–49)	Conservative 34.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal49.9 (33–67)Bloc Québécois32.5 (16–49)Conservative11.0 (1–24)
Chilliwack—HopeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 52 (37–65) · Lib 31 (18–45)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative51.7 (37–65)Liberal31.1 (18–45)NDP10.0 (2–20)
Churchill—Keewatinook AskiManitoba · 2025: Lib 45.5%Lib 42 (27–56) · NDP 35 (20–49)	Liberal 45.5%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal41.6 (27–56)NDP34.9 (20–49)Conservative18.0 (8–31)
Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.2%Lib 40 (26–53) · BQ 35 (22–48)	Liberal 45.2%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal39.7 (26–53)Bloc Québécois35.1 (22–48)Conservative17.3 (7–28)
Cloverdale—Langley CityBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative45.6 (31–60)Liberal42.2 (28–56)
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 47 (31–62) · Lib 24 (11–38)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative46.9 (31–62)Liberal24.2 (11–38)NDP22.3 (10–36)
Compton—StansteadQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 40 (25–55) · BQ 32 (18–48)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal39.5 (25–55)Bloc Québécois32.4 (18–48)Conservative17.1 (6–30)
Coquitlam—Port CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 43 (29–57) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Liberal42.8 (29–57)Conservative40.8 (27–55)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Courtenay—AlberniBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 39.6%NDP 45 (29–60) · Con 30 (16–45)	NDP 39.6%	NDPNDPLikely	82%	Likely	NDP45.2 (29–60)Conservative30.3 (16–45)Liberal17.7 (6–31)
Cowichan—Malahat—LangfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 37.2%NDP 36 (21–51) · Con 36 (22–50)	Conservative 37.2%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	49%	Toss-up	NDP36.1 (21–51)Conservative35.5 (22–50)Liberal21.9 (10–36)
Cumberland—ColchesterNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 40 (25–53)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal45.6 (32–60)Conservative39.5 (25–53)
Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—NitassinanQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.7%BQ 53 (37–68) · Con 21 (8–34)	Bloc Québécois 43.7%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois52.7 (37–68)Conservative20.5 (8–34)Liberal20.2 (8–34)
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—TémiscouataQuebec · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 40 (25–56) · BQ 28 (13–43)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative40.4 (25–56)Bloc Québécois27.8 (13–43)Liberal23.2 (10–38)
Dartmouth—Cole HarbourNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 19 (8–31)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.6 (46–74)Conservative19.0 (8–31)NDP12.7 (3–23)
DavenportOntario · 2025: Lib 57.8%Lib 48 (33–64) · NDP 26 (12–39)	Liberal 57.8%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal48.4 (33–64)NDP25.7 (12–39)Conservative18.8 (7–32)
DeltaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 51.8%Lib 50 (36–64) · Con 40 (26–53)	Liberal 51.8%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal49.8 (36–64)Conservative39.5 (26–53)
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill RiverSaskatchewan · 2025: Lib 65.1%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 21 (9–33)	Liberal 65.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal61.4 (46–75)Conservative20.6 (9–33)NDP13.6 (4–24)
Don Valley NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 37 (24–52)	Liberal 53.2%	LibLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal50.5 (36–65)Conservative37.4 (24–52)
Don Valley WestOntario · 2025: Lib 62.6%Lib 57 (42–72) · Con 31 (17–44)	Liberal 62.6%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal57.4 (42–72)Conservative30.5 (17–44)
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalleQuebec · 2025: Lib 59.4%Lib 54 (40–66) · Con 19 (9–29)	Liberal 59.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal53.7 (40–66)Conservative18.8 (9–29)Bloc Québécois16.9 (8–27)
DrummondQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.8%BQ 51 (35–67) · Lib 20 (7–34)	Bloc Québécois 42.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	95%	Solid	Bloc Québécois51.1 (35–67)Liberal20.1 (7–34)Conservative17.6 (6–31)
Dufferin—CaledonOntario · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 31 (18–44)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative56.3 (41–70)Liberal30.7 (18–44)
Edmonton CentreAlberta · 2025: Lib 44.3%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 44.3%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal43.6 (29–58)Conservative29.0 (16–43)NDP21.9 (9–35)
Edmonton GatewayAlberta · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal38.4 (24–53)
Edmonton GriesbachAlberta · 2025: Con 45.5%NDP 43 (25–58) · Con 37 (23–53)	Conservative 45.5%	NDPNDPgain from ConLeans	63%	Leans	NDP42.8 (25–58)Conservative37.1 (23–53)Liberal14.7 (5–27)
Edmonton ManningAlberta · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 33 (20–48)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative44.9 (30–60)Liberal33.4 (20–48)NDP15.7 (5–27)
Edmonton NorthwestAlberta · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 48 (34–62) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLikely	80%	Likely	Conservative48.2 (34–62)Liberal35.3 (21–49)NDP10.8 (2–21)
Edmonton RiverbendAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 50 (33–70) · Con 37 (16–53)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal49.6 (33–70)Conservative37.2 (16–53)
Edmonton SoutheastAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 52.9%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative48.1 (33–63)Liberal36.2 (22–50)
Edmonton StrathconaAlberta · 2025: NDP 47%NDP 58 (39–72) · Con 23 (11–38)	NDP 47%	NDPNDPSolid	96%	Solid	NDP57.5 (39–72)Conservative23.1 (11–38)Liberal14.4 (5–27)
Edmonton WestAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 52.9%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative45.5 (31–60)Liberal39.4 (25–54)
Eglinton—LawrenceOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 43 (28–56)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal47.0 (33–61)Conservative42.6 (28–56)
EgmontPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 47 (31–62) · Con 39 (24–54)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal46.5 (31–62)Conservative38.9 (24–54)
Elgin—St. Thomas—London SouthOntario · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative48.5 (34–63)Liberal36.6 (23–51)
Elmwood—TransconaManitoba · 2025: Con 41.6%NDP 41 (25–55) · Con 37 (23–51)	Conservative 41.6%	NDPNDPgain from ConLeans	60%	Leans	NDP40.8 (25–55)Conservative36.7 (23–51)Liberal17.2 (7–29)
Esquimalt—Saanich—SookeBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 46 (30–60) · Con 25 (12–39)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal45.5 (30–60)Conservative24.7 (12–39)NDP21.9 (10–35)
EssexOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 32 (19–46)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative53.2 (38–67)Liberal32.2 (19–46)
Etobicoke CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.6%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 53.6%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.8 (34–63)Conservative40.9 (27–55)
Etobicoke NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 52.6%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 52.6%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal49.7 (35–64)Conservative36.1 (22–50)
Etobicoke—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 57.4%Lib 53 (37–67) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 57.4%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal52.6 (37–67)Conservative35.8 (22–50)
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant NorthOntario · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative48.8 (34–63)Liberal38.5 (24–53)
Fleetwood—Port KellsBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 47.9%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal45.8 (32–60)Conservative40.0 (26–54)
FoothillsAlberta · 2025: Con 76.3%Con 69 (54–82) · Lib 18 (7–31)	Conservative 76.3%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative69.0 (54–82)Liberal18.4 (7–31)
Fort McMurray—Cold LakeAlberta · 2025: Con 80.2%Con 73 (59–85) · Lib 14 (4–26)	Conservative 80.2%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.2 (59–85)Liberal14.0 (4–26)
Fredericton—OromoctoNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 61.3%Lib 57 (43–71) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 61.3%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal57.1 (43–71)Conservative27.0 (14–40)
Fundy RoyalNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 35 (22–49)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLikely	80%	Likely	Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal35.4 (22–49)
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—ListugujQuebec · 2025: BQ 45.8%BQ 57 (40–72) · Lib 28 (14–43)	Bloc Québécois 45.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	95%	Likely	Bloc Québécois56.9 (40–72)Liberal27.6 (14–43)
GatineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.5%Lib 52 (37–67) · BQ 23 (11–36)	Liberal 60.5%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal52.4 (37–67)Bloc Québécois23.1 (11–36)Conservative16.1 (6–27)
Grande PrairieAlberta · 2025: Con 81.7%Con 74 (60–86) · Lib 11 (2–22)	Conservative 81.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.2 (60–86)Liberal11.2 (2–22)
GuelphOntario · 2025: Lib 54.7%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 24 (12–38)	Liberal 54.7%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal47.6 (33–63)Conservative24.3 (12–38)Green17.8 (2–32)
Haldimand—NorfolkOntario · 2025: Con 57.6%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 57.6%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative53.2 (38–67)Liberal31.7 (18–46)
Haliburton—Kawartha LakesOntario · 2025: Con 56.6%Con 53 (37–67) · Lib 34 (20–49)	Conservative 56.6%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative52.6 (37–67)Liberal34.3 (20–49)
HalifaxNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 55 (41–70) · NDP 25 (11–38)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal55.4 (41–70)NDP24.5 (11–38)Conservative14.1 (4–26)
Halifax WestNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 65.6%Lib 59 (45–73) · Con 24 (11–37)	Liberal 65.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.3 (45–73)Conservative23.5 (11–37)NDP10.5 (2–20)
Hamilton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 37.6%NDP 39 (22–53) · Lib 32 (19–47)	Liberal 37.6%	NDPNDPgain from LibLeans	64%	Leans	NDP38.5 (22–53)Liberal31.9 (19–47)Conservative22.4 (11–36)
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 48 (33–61) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative47.5 (33–61)Liberal39.9 (26–54)
Hamilton MountainOntario · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 39 (25–53) · Con 36 (23–51)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Liberal39.1 (25–53)Conservative36.4 (23–51)NDP19.0 (8–31)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasOntario · 2025: Lib 56.1%Lib 52 (37–67) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 56.1%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal52.2 (37–67)Conservative31.4 (18–45)
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—TyendinagaOntario · 2025: Con 54.3%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 54.3%	ConConservativeLikely	82%	Likely	Conservative50.0 (35–64)Liberal35.5 (22–50)
Hochelaga—Rosemont-EstQuebec · 2025: Lib 46.1%Lib 40 (26–54) · BQ 32 (19–46)	Liberal 46.1%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal39.9 (26–54)Bloc Québécois32.2 (19–46)NDP15.0 (3–26)
Honoré-MercierQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.2%Lib 56 (42–68) · Con 19 (9–29)	Liberal 60.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal55.7 (42–68)Conservative18.5 (9–29)Bloc Québécois16.8 (8–27)
Hull—AylmerQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 55 (41–68) · BQ 17 (7–29)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal54.9 (41–68)Bloc Québécois17.4 (7–29)Conservative14.6 (5–25)
Humber River—Black CreekOntario · 2025: Lib 55.6%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 55.6%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal49.7 (35–64)Conservative32.2 (18–46)NDP11.5 (3–22)
Huron—BruceOntario · 2025: Con 53.2%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 53.2%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative49.1 (34–63)Liberal36.8 (23–52)
Joliette—ManawanQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.3%BQ 58 (42–72) · Lib 23 (11–36)	Bloc Québécois 49.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	98%	Solid	Bloc Québécois57.8 (42–72)Liberal22.5 (11–36)Conservative11.1 (2–22)
JonquièreQuebec · 2025: BQ 40%BQ 49 (32–65) · Con 25 (11–39)	Bloc Québécois 40%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	91%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.8 (32–65)Conservative24.5 (11–39)Liberal18.1 (6–32)
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 49 (34–64) · Lib 35 (20–49)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLikely	82%	Likely	Conservative49.2 (34–64)Liberal34.6 (20–49)
Kamloops—Thompson—NicolaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.5%Con 49 (33–63) · Lib 36 (21–51)	Conservative 51.5%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative48.8 (33–63)Liberal35.7 (21–51)
KanataOntario · 2025: Lib 60.8%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 60.8%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal55.2 (40–69)Conservative32.5 (19–47)
Kapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukOntario · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 46 (32–61) · Lib 32 (19–46)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLikely	83%	Likely	Conservative46.0 (32–61)Liberal31.9 (19–46)NDP16.3 (6–28)
KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 43 (28–57)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLeans	60%	Leans	Liberal46.8 (32–61)Conservative42.7 (28–57)
Kenora—KiiwetinoongOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 43 (28–57) · Lib 29 (16–43)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative42.5 (28–57)Liberal29.2 (16–43)NDP21.6 (9–35)
Kildonan—St. PaulManitoba · 2025: Con 47.5%Con 43 (28–57) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 47.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Conservative42.8 (28–57)Liberal40.8 (26–55)NDP11.0 (3–21)
Kingston and the IslandsOntario · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 27 (15–41)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal56.8 (42–71)Conservative27.1 (15–41)
Kings—HantsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal54.9 (40–69)Conservative29.4 (16–43)
King—VaughanOntario · 2025: Con 61.5%Con 58 (43–71) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 61.5%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative57.8 (43–71)Liberal31.8 (18–46)
Kitchener CentreOntario · 2025: Con 34.2%Grn 48 (7–66) · Con 27 (14–46)	Conservative 34.2%	GrnGreengain from ConLikely	81%	Likely	Green47.6 (7–66)Conservative27.0 (14–46)Liberal18.4 (7–35)
Kitchener South—HespelerOntario · 2025: Con 47.9%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 47.9%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative45.9 (32–60)Liberal39.2 (25–53)
Kitchener—ConestogaOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 44 (29–58)	Liberal 48.3%	ConConservativegain from LibToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Conservative44.0 (30–58)Liberal43.8 (29–58)
La Pointe-de-l'ÎleQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.1%BQ 51 (36–65) · Lib 29 (16–42)	Bloc Québécois 43.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois50.9 (36–65)Liberal29.0 (16–42)
La Prairie—AtatekenQuebec · 2025: Lib 44.1%BQ 41 (27–55) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Liberal 44.1%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois41.1 (27–55)Liberal38.2 (24–52)Conservative13.0 (4–23)
LaSalle—Émard—VerdunQuebec · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 46 (32–59) · BQ 26 (14–38)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal45.8 (32–59)Bloc Québécois25.8 (14–38)NDP12.1 (2–22)Conservative10.9 (3–20)
LabradorNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal48.3 (33–63)Conservative35.6 (22–50)NDP11.8 (3–22)
Lac-Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 55 (39–70) · Con 19 (7–33)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois55.0 (39–70)Conservative19.3 (7–33)Liberal18.1 (6–32)
Lac-Saint-LouisQuebec · 2025: Lib 67.6%Lib 64 (51–75) · Con 22 (12–33)	Liberal 67.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.5 (51–75)Conservative22.4 (12–33)
LakelandAlberta · 2025: Con 81%Con 73 (59–85) · Lib 12 (2–23)	Conservative 81%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.4 (59–85)Liberal11.5 (2–23)
Lanark—FrontenacOntario · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative46.3 (32–60)Liberal40.7 (26–55)
Langley Township—Fraser HeightsBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.4%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 51.4%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative49.2 (34–63)Liberal38.8 (25–53)
Laurentides—LabelleQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.6%BQ 53 (36–69) · Lib 26 (12–41)	Bloc Québécois 44.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois53.1 (36–69)Liberal25.8 (12–41)Conservative10.8 (1–23)
Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec · 2025: Lib 52.1%Lib 44 (30–59) · NDP 23 (7–36)	Liberal 52.1%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal43.7 (30–59)NDP22.7 (7–36)Bloc Québécois20.5 (10–33)
Laval—Les ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.7%Lib 44 (31–57) · Con 29 (17–41)	Liberal 49.7%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal43.9 (31–57)Conservative29.3 (17–41)Bloc Québécois19.3 (9–30)
Leduc—WetaskiwinAlberta · 2025: Con 74.7%Con 67 (52–79) · Lib 17 (6–29)	Conservative 74.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative66.5 (52–79)Liberal16.5 (6–29)NDP10.8 (2–21)
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau LakesOntario · 2025: Con 50%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 50%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative45.9 (31–60)Liberal39.3 (25–54)
Les Pays-d'en-HautQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%BQ 43 (28–57) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Liberal 41%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	71%	Leans	Bloc Québécois42.9 (28–57)Liberal34.9 (21–49)Conservative13.4 (4–25)
LethbridgeAlberta · 2025: Con 61.1%Con 56 (41–71) · Lib 30 (17–45)	Conservative 61.1%	ConConservativeLikely	93%	Likely	Conservative55.9 (41–71)Liberal30.4 (17–45)
London CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 56.7%Lib 49 (35–64) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 56.7%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal49.3 (35–64)Conservative26.8 (14–40)NDP15.9 (5–27)
London WestOntario · 2025: Lib 56.2%Lib 50 (36–65) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 56.2%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal50.3 (36–65)Conservative33.2 (19–47)NDP10.1 (2–20)
London—FanshaweOntario · 2025: Con 40.6%NDP 37 (21–51) · Con 36 (22–51)	Conservative 40.6%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	51%	Toss-up	NDP36.9 (21–51)Conservative35.7 (22–51)Liberal22.3 (10–36)
Long Range MountainsNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 50.3%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 50.3%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative48.9 (34–63)Liberal37.1 (23–52)
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyneQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.4%Lib 41 (28–55) · BQ 34 (21–47)	Liberal 49.4%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal41.4 (28–55)Bloc Québécois33.8 (21–47)Conservative13.6 (5–24)
Longueuil—Saint-HubertQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%BQ 45 (31–59) · Lib 35 (22–49)	Liberal 41%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	77%	Leans	Bloc Québécois45.4 (31–59)Liberal34.9 (22–49)Conservative10.2 (2–20)
Louis-HébertQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.4%Lib 47 (31–62) · BQ 29 (15–44)	Liberal 55.4%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal46.5 (31–62)Bloc Québécois28.8 (15–44)Conservative16.7 (5–29)
Louis-Saint-Laurent—AkiawenhrahkQuebec · 2025: Con 44.9%Con 40 (24–55) · BQ 26 (12–42)	Conservative 44.9%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative39.5 (24–55)Bloc Québécois26.3 (12–42)Liberal25.8 (12–41)
Lévis—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 47.7%Con 42 (26–57) · BQ 27 (13–42)	Conservative 47.7%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative42.2 (26–57)Bloc Québécois27.0 (13–42)Liberal22.2 (9–37)
Madawaska—RestigoucheNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 35 (21–48)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal52.6 (38–67)Conservative34.5 (21–48)
MalpequePrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57.6%Lib 51 (36–67) · Con 32 (18–47)	Liberal 57.6%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal51.3 (36–67)Conservative32.2 (18–47)
Marc-Aurèle-FortinQuebec · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 46 (33–60) · BQ 29 (17–42)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal46.4 (33–60)Bloc Québécois28.9 (17–42)Conservative16.9 (7–28)
Markham—StouffvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 51.4%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal46.6 (32–61)Conservative42.0 (28–56)
Markham—ThornhillOntario · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 37 (24–51)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	83%	Likely	Liberal51.9 (37–66)Conservative37.2 (24–51)
Markham—UnionvilleOntario · 2025: Con 50.7%Lib 49 (32–70) · Con 41 (19–57)	Conservative 50.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal48.8 (32–70)Conservative40.6 (19–57)
Medicine Hat—Cardston—WarnerAlberta · 2025: Con 76.7%Con 69 (54–82) · Lib 17 (6–29)	Conservative 76.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative68.8 (54–82)Liberal16.8 (6–29)
Middlesex—LondonOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 47 (33–62) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative47.4 (33–62)Liberal37.1 (23–51)
Milton East—Halton Hills SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 43 (29–57)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal45.9 (31–60)Conservative42.9 (29–57)
MirabelQuebec · 2025: BQ 39.9%BQ 48 (33–63) · Lib 25 (13–39)	Bloc Québécois 39.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	93%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.3 (33–63)Liberal25.1 (13–39)Conservative17.6 (7–29)
Miramichi—Grand LakeNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative45.8 (31–60)Liberal40.2 (26–54)
Mission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 56.7%Con 54 (40–68) · Lib 33 (19–46)	Conservative 56.7%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative54.0 (40–68)Liberal32.6 (19–46)
Mississauga CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.9%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 53.9%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal51.5 (37–66)Conservative37.2 (23–51)
Mississauga East—CooksvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 50.2%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 42 (27–56)	Liberal 50.2%	LibLiberalToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Liberal45.6 (31–60)Conservative41.7 (27–56)
Mississauga—Erin MillsOntario · 2025: Lib 55.7%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 55.7%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal50.9 (36–65)Conservative36.9 (23–51)
Mississauga—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 52.4%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 52.4%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal47.6 (33–62)Conservative40.7 (26–55)
Mississauga—MaltonOntario · 2025: Lib 53.3%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 53.3%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal48.6 (34–63)Conservative39.0 (25–53)
Mississauga—StreetsvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 41 (27–56)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal46.7 (32–61)Conservative41.4 (27–56)
Moncton—DieppeNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 27 (14–41)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal56.7 (42–71)Conservative27.2 (14–41)
Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’AcadieQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.1%BQ 42 (27–56) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Liberal 47.1%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois41.5 (27–56)Liberal40.3 (26–54)
MontcalmQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.6%BQ 55 (40–69) · Lib 19 (8–32)	Bloc Québécois 46.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	98%	Solid	Bloc Québécois55.0 (40–69)Liberal18.8 (8–32)Conservative18.0 (7–30)
Montmorency—CharlevoixQuebec · 2025: Con 34.5%BQ 41 (25–56) · Con 32 (17–47)	Conservative 34.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from ConLeans	70%	Leans	Bloc Québécois40.6 (25–56)Conservative31.8 (17–47)Liberal20.0 (7–34)
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—LaniganSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.9%Con 66 (51–79) · Lib 14 (4–26)	Conservative 71.9%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative66.0 (51–79)Liberal14.2 (4–26)NDP11.9 (3–22)
Mount RoyalQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 47 (34–60) · Con 39 (26–51)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal47.3 (34–60)Conservative38.6 (26–51)
Mégantic—L’Érable—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 53 (36–68) · BQ 23 (10–38)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	95%	Likely	Conservative52.9 (36–68)Bloc Québécois23.4 (10–38)Liberal15.2 (4–29)
Nanaimo—LadysmithBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 32 (18–47) · Grn 26 (8–42)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Conservative32.0 (18–47)Green25.8 (8–42)Liberal20.2 (8–34)NDP19.5 (8–33)
NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.8%Lib 60 (46–74) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 63.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.4 (46–74)Conservative28.9 (16–43)
New Tecumseth—GwillimburyOntario · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 55 (41–69) · Lib 33 (19–47)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative55.3 (41–69)Liberal32.6 (19–47)
New Westminster—Burnaby—MaillardvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 35.1%NDP 36 (21–49) · Lib 33 (20–46)	Liberal 35.1%	NDPNDPgain from LibToss-up	53%	Toss-up	NDP35.8 (21–49)Liberal32.5 (20–46)Conservative26.7 (15–40)
Newmarket—AuroraOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 50 (35–63) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	71%	Leans	Conservative49.5 (35–63)Liberal40.6 (26–55)
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-LakeOntario · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative45.1 (31–59)Liberal39.8 (26–54)
Niagara SouthOntario · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative45.8 (31–60)Liberal36.9 (23–51)
Niagara WestOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative48.0 (33–63)Liberal38.7 (24–53)
Nipissing—TimiskamingOntario · 2025: Lib 47.2%Lib 44 (30–59) · Con 38 (25–52)	Liberal 47.2%	LibLiberalLeans	65%	Leans	Liberal44.2 (30–59)Conservative38.4 (25–52)NDP10.4 (2–20)
North Island—Powell RiverBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 38.7%Con 37 (24–51) · NDP 36 (22–50)	Conservative 38.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Conservative37.0 (24–51)NDP36.3 (22–50)Liberal20.4 (10–33)
North Vancouver—CapilanoBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 57 (41–72) · Con 30 (16–45)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal56.9 (41–72)Conservative30.1 (16–45)
Northumberland—ClarkeOntario · 2025: Con 49%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 49%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative45.6 (31–60)Liberal41.1 (27–55)
Northwest TerritoriesNorthwest Territories · 2025: Lib 53.5%Lib 49 (31–67) · Con 29 (12–45)	Liberal 53.5%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal49.3 (31–67)Conservative28.6 (12–45)NDP17.0 (3–32)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—WestmountQuebec · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 59 (46–72) · Con 18 (9–28)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.2 (46–72)Conservative18.3 (9–28)
NunavutNunavut · 2025: NDP 37.3%NDP 41 (14–60) · Lib 34 (16–58)	NDP 37.3%	NDPNDPToss-up	58%	Toss-up	NDP40.6 (14–60)Liberal34.4 (16–58)Conservative21.8 (7–39)
Oakville EastOntario · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 46 (31–61) · Con 41 (27–56)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal46.2 (31–61)Conservative41.3 (27–56)
Oakville WestOntario · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 50 (36–65) · Con 40 (25–53)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal50.4 (36–65)Conservative39.6 (25–53)
Okanagan Lake West—South KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.9%Con 49 (33–63) · Lib 40 (25–55)	Conservative 50.9%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative48.5 (33–63)Liberal40.1 (25–55)
OrléansOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 25 (13–38)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.0 (47–75)Conservative25.2 (13–38)
OshawaOntario · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 35 (22–50)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative45.6 (31–60)Liberal35.4 (22–50)NDP12.6 (3–23)
Ottawa CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 62.7%Lib 52 (37–68) · NDP 29 (14–43)	Liberal 62.7%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (37–68)NDP28.9 (14–43)Conservative11.9 (2–23)
Ottawa SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 65.2%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 65.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal58.4 (44–72)Conservative23.7 (12–37)NDP10.9 (2–21)
Ottawa West—NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 24 (11–37)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal56.7 (42–71)Conservative23.5 (11–37)NDP12.4 (3–23)
Ottawa—Vanier—GloucesterOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 60 (45–73) · Con 18 (7–31)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.7 (45–73)Conservative18.2 (7–31)NDP13.0 (4–24)
OutremontQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 48 (34–62) · BQ 16 (7–27)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal48.1 (34–62)Bloc Québécois16.2 (7–27)NDP13.2 (3–23)Green10.8 (1–18)Conservative10.3 (3–19)
OxfordOntario · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 33 (20–48)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative49.0 (34–63)Liberal33.3 (20–48)
PapineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 53%Lib 49 (35–62) · BQ 21 (10–32)	Liberal 53%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal48.5 (35–62)Bloc Québécois20.6 (10–32)NDP19.1 (6–31)
ParklandAlberta · 2025: Con 75.2%Con 68 (53–81) · Lib 17 (6–29)	Conservative 75.2%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative67.7 (53–81)Liberal17.1 (6–29)
Parry Sound—MuskokaOntario · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 48 (34–63) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative48.4 (34–63)Liberal38.2 (24–52)
Peace River—WestlockAlberta · 2025: Con 77.1%Con 73 (59–86) · Lib 12 (3–23)	Conservative 77.1%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.3 (59–86)Liberal11.6 (3–23)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Perth—WellingtonOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative48.9 (34–63)Liberal36.1 (22–50)
PeterboroughOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal51.2 (37–65)Conservative36.1 (22–50)
Pickering—BrooklinOntario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.2%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal51.1 (37–65)Conservative36.3 (22–50)
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—VerchèresQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.1%BQ 55 (39–69) · Lib 29 (16–43)	Bloc Québécois 46.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois54.8 (39–69)Liberal29.3 (16–43)
Pierrefonds—DollardQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 56 (43–68) · Con 29 (18–41)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.1 (43–68)Conservative29.1 (18–41)
Pitt Meadows—Maple RidgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.4%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 47.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative45.2 (31–59)Liberal41.5 (27–56)
Ponoka—DidsburyAlberta · 2025: Con 81.8%Con 73 (58–85) · NDP 17 (6–30)	Conservative 81.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.7 (58–85)NDP17.3 (6–30)
Pontiac—Kitigan ZibiQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 25 (12–38)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal47.8 (33–63)Conservative24.5 (12–38)Bloc Québécois15.1 (4–28)
Port Moody—CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 43.5%Lib 41 (27–55) · Con 36 (23–49)	Liberal 43.5%	LibLiberalLeans	64%	Leans	Liberal41.2 (27–55)Conservative35.7 (23–49)NDP18.2 (7–30)
Portage—LisgarManitoba · 2025: Con 69.4%Con 64 (49–77) · Lib 20 (9–33)	Conservative 69.4%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative64.2 (49–77)Liberal20.2 (9–33)
Portneuf—Jacques-CartierQuebec · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 44 (28–59) · BQ 25 (12–40)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative44.0 (28–59)Bloc Québécois25.2 (12–40)Liberal22.2 (9–37)
Prescott—Russell—CumberlandOntario · 2025: Lib 54.8%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 36 (22–49)	Liberal 54.8%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal51.8 (37–66)Conservative35.6 (22–49)
Prince AlbertSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.5%Con 65 (50–79) · Lib 16 (5–29)	Conservative 71.5%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.0 (50–79)Liberal16.4 (5–29)NDP14.0 (4–25)
Prince George—Peace River—Northern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 71.1%Con 67 (52–81) · Lib 16 (5–29)	Conservative 71.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative67.4 (52–81)Liberal16.1 (5–29)
ProvencherManitoba · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 61 (47–75) · Lib 23 (11–36)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative61.2 (47–75)Liberal23.1 (11–36)
Québec CentreQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.5%BQ 43 (27–58) · Lib 39 (24–54)	Liberal 49.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	62%	Leans	Bloc Québécois43.2 (27–58)Liberal38.5 (24–54)
Red DeerAlberta · 2025: Con 71.6%Con 66 (51–79) · Lib 20 (9–33)	Conservative 71.6%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.6 (51–79)Liberal20.3 (9–33)
Regina—LewvanSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50%Con 45 (31–60) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 50%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative45.2 (31–60)Liberal39.3 (25–54)
Regina—Qu'AppelleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 64%Con 58 (43–73) · Lib 24 (11–37)	Conservative 64%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative58.2 (43–73)Liberal23.9 (11–37)NDP12.4 (3–23)
Regina—WascanaSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 40 (25–55)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative45.4 (30–60)Liberal40.4 (25–55)
RepentignyQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.2%BQ 53 (38–67) · Lib 29 (16–42)	Bloc Québécois 42.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois53.0 (38–67)Liberal28.5 (16–42)Conservative10.8 (2–21)
Richmond Centre—MarpoleBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 50 (35–63) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative49.5 (35–63)Liberal38.7 (25–53)
Richmond East—StevestonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.4%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 44 (30–58)	Liberal 48.4%	ConConservativegain from LibToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Conservative44.2 (30–58)Liberal44.1 (30–58)
Richmond Hill SouthOntario · 2025: Con 52.3%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 52.3%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative50.9 (36–65)Liberal38.3 (24–53)
Richmond—ArthabaskaQuebec · 2025: Con 35.5%BQ 34 (20–50) · Con 34 (19–48)	Conservative 35.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from ConToss-up	46%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois34.2 (20–50)Conservative33.5 (19–48)Liberal24.3 (11–39)
Riding MountainManitoba · 2025: Con 67.8%Con 62 (47–75) · Lib 19 (8–32)	Conservative 67.8%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative62.1 (47–75)Liberal19.3 (8–32)NDP11.5 (3–22)
Rimouski—La MatapédiaQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 56 (40–72) · Lib 27 (12–42)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	95%	Likely	Bloc Québécois56.0 (40–72)Liberal26.8 (12–42)
Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 40 (26–53) · BQ 39 (25–53)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal39.8 (26–53)Bloc Québécois39.3 (25–53)Conservative13.3 (4–23)
Rivière-du-NordQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.8%BQ 52 (37–67) · Lib 23 (11–37)	Bloc Québécois 43.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois52.4 (37–67)Liberal23.1 (11–37)Conservative16.2 (6–28)
Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec · 2025: NDP 41%NDP 45 (22–61) · Lib 23 (11–38)	NDP 41%	NDPNDPLikely	86%	Likely	NDP45.4 (22–61)Liberal23.0 (11–38)Bloc Québécois22.5 (11–37)
Saanich—Gulf IslandsBritish Columbia · 2025: Grn 39.1%Grn 52 (26–69) · Lib 22 (10–40)	Green 39.1%	GrnGreenLikely	90%	Likely	Green52.0 (26–69)Liberal22.4 (10–40)Conservative18.4 (7–34)
Sackville—Bedford—PrestonNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 62%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 28 (15–40)	Liberal 62%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.1 (44–72)Conservative27.5 (15–40)
Saint John—KennebecasisNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 58.1%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 33 (20–47)	Liberal 58.1%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal52.6 (38–67)Conservative33.2 (20–47)
Saint John—St. CroixNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative48.2 (33–62)Liberal36.6 (23–51)
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 52 (36–68) · Lib 25 (12–40)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois52.4 (36–68)Liberal24.6 (12–40)Conservative13.5 (3–26)
Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.3%BQ 53 (37–68) · Lib 25 (13–39)	Bloc Québécois 44.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	95%	Solid	Bloc Québécois53.0 (37–68)Liberal25.4 (13–39)Conservative12.1 (3–23)
Saint-LaurentQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.9%Lib 54 (41–67) · Con 27 (16–38)	Liberal 58.9%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal54.4 (41–67)Conservative26.6 (16–38)
Saint-Léonard—Saint-MichelQuebec · 2025: Lib 65.3%Lib 60 (47–72) · Con 19 (9–29)	Liberal 65.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.8 (47–72)Conservative18.7 (9–29)Bloc Québécois10.3 (3–19)
Saint-Maurice—ChamplainQuebec · 2025: Lib 50%Lib 41 (26–57) · BQ 29 (15–44)	Liberal 50%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal41.4 (26–57)Bloc Québécois28.8 (15–44)Conservative20.6 (9–34)
Sarnia—Lambton—BkejwanongOntario · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 42 (20–58) · Lib 40 (24–62)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Conservative42.4 (20–58)Liberal39.7 (24–62)NDP10.1 (2–20)
Saskatoon SouthSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 49.3%Con 44 (29–59) · Lib 37 (22–51)	Conservative 49.3%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative44.2 (29–59)Liberal36.5 (22–51)NDP13.7 (4–24)
Saskatoon WestSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 46 (31–61) · NDP 26 (13–39)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative45.7 (31–61)NDP25.7 (13–39)Liberal23.3 (11–37)
Saskatoon—UniversitySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 44 (29–59) · Lib 38 (23–52)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative43.8 (29–59)Liberal37.5 (23–52)NDP13.1 (4–24)
Sault Ste. Marie—AlgomaOntario · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 42 (27–56) · Con 40 (26–55)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Liberal41.6 (27–56)Conservative40.2 (26–55)NDP11.6 (3–22)
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley EastOntario · 2025: Lib 57.3%Lib 52 (38–67) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 57.3%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal52.3 (38–67)Conservative34.8 (21–49)
Scarborough NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 58 (42–71) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal57.5 (42–71)Conservative29.9 (17–44)
Scarborough SouthwestOntario · 2025: Lib 61.5%Lib 57 (41–72) · Con 26 (13–40)	Liberal 61.5%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal57.0 (41–72)Conservative25.9 (13–40)
Scarborough—AgincourtOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 49 (35–63) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal49.4 (35–63)Conservative39.7 (26–54)
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal58.0 (43–72)Conservative28.3 (15–42)
Scarborough—WoburnOntario · 2025: Lib 60.4%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 60.4%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal54.9 (40–69)Conservative30.8 (18–45)
Selkirk—Interlake—EastmanManitoba · 2025: Con 60.2%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 27 (15–41)	Conservative 60.2%	ConConservativeSolid	95%	Solid	Conservative54.9 (40–69)Liberal27.4 (15–41)NDP10.5 (2–20)
SheffordQuebec · 2025: BQ 40.1%BQ 49 (33–64) · Lib 30 (16–45)	Bloc Québécois 40.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	87%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.6 (33–64)Liberal30.0 (16–45)Conservative13.0 (3–25)
SherbrookeQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.3%Lib 42 (26–57) · BQ 34 (19–50)	Liberal 51.3%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal41.9 (26–57)Bloc Québécois34.0 (19–50)
Sherwood Park—Fort SaskatchewanAlberta · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 59 (44–73) · Lib 26 (13–40)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative58.5 (44–73)Liberal26.3 (13–40)
Simcoe NorthOntario · 2025: Con 48.4%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 48.4%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative44.0 (29–58)Liberal39.3 (25–54)
Simcoe—GreyOntario · 2025: Con 52.1%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 52.1%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative48.0 (33–62)Liberal38.5 (24–53)
Similkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenayBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 44.1%Con 43 (28–58) · Lib 31 (18–46)	Conservative 44.1%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative42.9 (28–58)Liberal31.0 (18–46)NDP19.3 (8–32)
Skeena—Bulkley ValleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.2%Con 44 (30–59) · NDP 43 (27–57)	Conservative 47.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative43.9 (30–59)NDP42.9 (27–57)
Souris—Moose MountainSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 84%Con 79 (66–90) · NDP 8 (0–17)	Conservative 84%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative79.3 (66–90)NDP7.7 (0–17)
South Shore—St. MargaretsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.9%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.9%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal52.9 (39–67)Conservative36.4 (22–50)
South Surrey—White RockBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 50.5%Lib 48 (34–62) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 50.5%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal48.4 (34–62)Conservative41.8 (28–56)
Spadina—HarbourfrontOntario · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal55.2 (40–69)Conservative25.9 (13–39)NDP12.8 (4–23)
St. Albert—Sturgeon RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 63.9%Con 56 (41–71) · Lib 29 (15–43)	Conservative 63.9%	ConConservativeSolid	95%	Solid	Conservative56.3 (41–71)Liberal29.0 (15–43)
St. Boniface—St. VitalManitoba · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 27 (14–41)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal57.3 (42–71)Conservative27.1 (14–41)NDP10.6 (2–20)
St. CatharinesOntario · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal46.6 (32–61)Conservative36.9 (23–51)NDP11.0 (3–21)
St. John's EastNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 62.3%Lib 55 (39–70) · Con 21 (9–35)	Liberal 62.3%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal54.7 (39–70)Conservative21.4 (9–35)NDP18.5 (7–31)
Stormont—Dundas—GlengarryOntario · 2025: Con 56.3%Con 52 (37–67) · Lib 35 (21–50)	Conservative 56.3%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative52.2 (37–67)Liberal35.1 (21–50)
SudburyOntario · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal45.8 (32–60)Conservative35.0 (22–49)NDP13.3 (4–24)
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltOntario · 2025: Con 48.3%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 35 (21–48)	Conservative 48.3%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative45.7 (31–60)Liberal34.5 (21–48)NDP13.0 (4–24)
Surrey CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48%Lib 44 (29–57) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 48%	LibLiberalToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Liberal43.6 (29–57)Conservative40.9 (27–55)
Surrey NewtonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 49.5%	LibLiberalToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal45.1 (31–59)Conservative42.1 (28–56)
Swift Current—Grasslands—KindersleySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 82%Con 77 (63–88) · NDP 10 (2–19)	Conservative 82%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative76.7 (63–88)NDP9.5 (2–19)
Sydney—Glace BayNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal50.5 (36–65)Conservative34.8 (21–49)
Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 48 (33–63) · NDP 32 (16–46)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal47.8 (33–63)NDP31.6 (16–46)Conservative14.2 (4–26)
Terra Nova—The PeninsulasNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 48%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 48%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative46.0 (31–61)Liberal41.4 (27–56)
TerrebonneQuebec · 2025: Lib 38.7%BQ 45 (29–60) · Lib 33 (19–48)	Liberal 38.7%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	77%	Leans	Bloc Québécois44.9 (29–60)Liberal33.0 (19–48)Conservative13.5 (3–25)
ThornhillOntario · 2025: Con 66.4%Con 63 (48–76) · Lib 27 (14–41)	Conservative 66.4%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative62.6 (48–76)Liberal27.2 (14–41)
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverOntario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 43 (29–57) · Con 39 (24–53)	Liberal 48.5%	LibLiberalLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal42.7 (29–57)Conservative38.5 (24–53)NDP12.0 (3–23)
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 32 (18–45)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal48.8 (34–63)Conservative31.7 (18–45)NDP12.4 (3–23)
Thérèse-De BlainvilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.8%Lib 40 (26–53) · BQ 39 (25–53)	Liberal 45.8%	LibLiberalToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal39.5 (26–53)Bloc Québécois38.8 (25–53)Conservative14.3 (5–25)
Tobique—MactaquacNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative53.8 (39–68)Liberal31.6 (18–46)
Toronto CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 64.3%Lib 58 (43–72) · NDP 19 (7–31)	Liberal 64.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.5 (43–72)NDP19.0 (7–31)Conservative16.5 (6–29)
Toronto—DanforthOntario · 2025: Lib 66.6%Lib 58 (42–72) · NDP 20 (8–33)	Liberal 66.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal57.7 (42–72)NDP20.3 (8–33)Conservative15.6 (5–27)
Toronto—St. Paul'sOntario · 2025: Lib 61.9%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 29 (16–42)	Liberal 61.9%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal58.0 (43–72)Conservative28.6 (16–42)
Trois-RivièresQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 35 (21–51) · BQ 34 (20–50)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalToss-up	49%	Toss-up	Liberal35.3 (21–51)Bloc Québécois34.4 (20–50)Conservative21.7 (9–35)
University—RosedaleOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 58 (42–73) · Con 19 (7–32)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal57.6 (42–73)Conservative18.9 (7–32)NDP15.5 (4–28)
Vancouver CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal49.8 (35–64)Conservative27.9 (15–41)NDP16.2 (6–28)
Vancouver EastBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 43.6%NDP 49 (33–64) · Lib 29 (16–43)	NDP 43.6%	NDPNDPLikely	90%	Likely	NDP49.3 (33–64)Liberal29.0 (16–43)Conservative14.5 (5–26)
Vancouver Fraserview—South BurnabyBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 52.3%Lib 49 (35–63) · Con 32 (19–45)	Liberal 52.3%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal49.4 (35–63)Conservative31.8 (19–45)NDP12.4 (3–23)
Vancouver GranvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.8 (42–71)Conservative26.5 (14–40)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Vancouver KingswayBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 37.2%NDP 43 (27–57) · Lib 31 (17–44)	NDP 37.2%	NDPNDPLeans	79%	Leans	NDP42.9 (27–57)Liberal30.6 (17–44)Conservative21.0 (10–34)
Vancouver QuadraBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 60 (46–73) · Con 27 (15–40)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.9 (46–73)Conservative27.1 (15–40)
VaudreuilQuebec · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 51 (38–64) · Con 20 (10–31)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal51.4 (38–64)Conservative20.4 (10–31)Bloc Québécois20.1 (10–32)
Vaughan—WoodbridgeOntario · 2025: Con 60%Con 59 (44–72) · Lib 33 (19–47)	Conservative 60%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative58.6 (44–72)Liberal32.5 (19–47)
Vernon—Lake Country—MonasheeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative50.1 (35–64)Liberal36.6 (23–52)
VictoriaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 49 (34–64) · NDP 28 (15–43)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal49.2 (34–64)NDP28.4 (15–43)Conservative13.7 (3–26)
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-SoeursQuebec · 2025: Lib 63.7%Lib 58 (44–70) · Con 17 (8–27)	Liberal 63.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.8 (44–70)Conservative17.0 (8–27)Bloc Québécois12.7 (5–22)
VimyQuebec · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 47 (33–60) · BQ 23 (12–34)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal46.6 (33–60)Bloc Québécois22.5 (12–34)Conservative21.8 (11–33)
WaterlooOntario · 2025: Lib 59.5%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 59.5%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal53.1 (39–67)Conservative28.9 (16–43)
Wellington—Halton Hills NorthOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative46.6 (32–61)Liberal39.3 (25–53)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky CountryBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.7%Lib 55 (40–68) · Con 31 (18–44)	Liberal 59.7%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal54.5 (40–68)Conservative30.6 (18–44)
WhitbyOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 40 (26–55)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal47.7 (33–62)Conservative40.4 (26–55)
WillowdaleOntario · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.7 (34–63)Conservative40.7 (26–55)
Windsor WestOntario · 2025: Con 39%NDP 37 (21–52) · Con 34 (21–49)	Conservative 39%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	54%	Toss-up	NDP37.0 (21–52)Conservative34.3 (21–49)Liberal22.6 (11–36)
Windsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative43.9 (30–58)Liberal38.7 (25–53)NDP10.4 (2–20)
Winnipeg CentreManitoba · 2025: NDP 39.4%NDP 48 (31–62) · Lib 29 (16–43)	NDP 39.4%	NDPNDPLikely	87%	Likely	NDP47.7 (31–62)Liberal29.2 (16–43)Conservative16.7 (6–29)
Winnipeg NorthManitoba · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal53.8 (39–68)Conservative30.2 (17–44)
Winnipeg SouthManitoba · 2025: Lib 59%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 59%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal55.2 (40–69)Conservative31.1 (18–45)
Winnipeg South CentreManitoba · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 24 (12–38)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.2 (44–73)Conservative23.8 (12–38)NDP10.5 (2–20)
Winnipeg WestManitoba · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal52.8 (38–67)Conservative35.0 (22–49)
YellowheadAlberta · 2025: Con 69.1%Con 63 (49–77) · Lib 23 (12–36)	Conservative 69.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative63.2 (49–77)Liberal23.3 (12–36)
York CentreOntario · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative53.2 (38–67)Liberal36.6 (23–51)
York South—Weston—EtobicokeOntario · 2025: Lib 55.3%Lib 50 (35–65) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 55.3%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal49.9 (35–65)Conservative36.1 (22–50)
Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.5%Con 72 (58–84) · Lib 12 (2–23)	Conservative 77.5%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative71.7 (58–84)Liberal11.9 (2–23)
York—DurhamOntario · 2025: Con 55.6%Con 54 (39–67) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 55.6%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative53.6 (39–67)Liberal33.4 (20–47)
YukonYukon · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 47 (28–66) · Con 35 (17–53)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal47.1 (28–66)Conservative35.1 (17–53)NDP10.5 (0–24)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 9 Jan 2026, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Liberal	39.5	37.9–41.0	−0.2
Conservative	37.5	35.4–39.5	−0.2
NDP	9.9	8.0–11.7	+0.3
Bloc Québécois	7.5	6.6–8.4	0
Green	3.1	2.2–4.0	+0.1
People’s Party	1.7	1.2–2.1	+0.1
Others	1.0		0

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 9 Jan 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 3 Jan 2026, in points.

Polls included (103)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
9 Jan	Nanos ResearchNew	1,054	±3.0	38.8	35.5	10.9	7.6	3.9	2.1
3 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	38	37	12	7	3	1
2 Jan	Nanos Research	1,059	±3.0	37.7	35.5	11.7	7.6	3.9	1.9
28 Dec 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	39	37	11	7	3	2
26 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,054	±3.0	38.4	34.7	11.3	7.4	3.9	1.7
21 Dec 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	38	38	12	7	3	2
19 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,059	±3.0	36.3	35.6	11.4	7.1	3.5	1.8
15 Dec 2025	Ipsos	1,502	±3.1	40	37	9	9	2	2
15 Dec 2025	Pallas Data	1,074	±3.0	40.9	37.7	7.9	8.2	3.6	–
14 Dec 2025	Innovative Research	2,159	–	39	39	10	7	4	–

93 earlier polls

Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
12 Dec 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,098	±3.0	41	42	6	7	1	1
12 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	38.5	36	10.8	6.7	3.7	1.9
9 Dec 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	41	9	6	2	1
5 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,042	±3.0	39.1	37.8	9.5	6.3	3.3	1.8
1 Dec 2025	Abacus Data	1,802	±2.3	41	41	7	7	2	1
1 Dec 2025	Angus Reid	4,025	±1.5	40	37	10	9	3	–
1 Dec 2025	Innovative Research	1,846	–	39	38	9	8	4	–
30 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	41	36	12	5	2	2
30 Nov 2025	Léger	1,579	±2.5	43	36	8	9	4	–
28 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	41.9	38.2	8.4	7.3	2.7	1.2
27 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	2,421	±2.0	41	40	8	7	2	1
21 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,053	±3.0	41.9	37.2	9.1	7	2.7	1.6
18 Nov 2025	Kolosowski Strategies	890	±3.2	44	44	3	6	1	1
14 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	40.2	38.2	10.1	7.4	2.2	1.3
11 Nov 2025	Ekos	1,191	±2.8	44.1	33.2	10.7	5.4	3.3	1.8
8 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	1,244	±1.8	40	23	9	8	–	–
8 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	36	10	6	2	1
8 Nov 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,084	±3.0	44	40	5	6	2	2
7 Nov 2025	Angus Reid	2,038	±1.5	40	38	9	8	3	–
7 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,122	±2.9	40	36.8	11.4	7.5	2.3	1.2
6 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	1,916	±2.2	40	41	8	7	2	1
4 Nov 2025	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.4	35.5	8	5.8	3.5	2
4 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	38	11	5	2	1
3 Nov 2025	Léger	1,585	±2.5	43	38	7	7	4	–
31 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	924	±3.0	39.3	37.1	12.5	6.6	1.7	1.5
29 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	2,922	±1.8	40	42	8	6	3	1
24 Oct 2025	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.5	32.4	12.4	5.7	3	2
24 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	39.4	37	12.7	7	1.6	1.2
17 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,021	±3.1	39.3	36.6	12.1	6.8	2.8	1.3
15 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	4,501	±1.5	40	41	8	7	3	1
15 Oct 2025	Pallas Data	1,206	±2.8	41	37	11	6	2	2
10 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	38.5	36.8	12.2	6.5	3.9	1.4
5 Oct 2025	Léger	1,562	±2.5	44	38	6	7	3	–
3 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	39.1	37.9	11.5	6.2	4	0.9
1 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	1,504	±2.5	40	41	7	7	3	2
26 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,030	±3.1	40.7	36.6	11.9	4.8	4.3	1.2
22 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	1,570	±2.0	38	41	10	8	2	1
21 Sep 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	37	10	5	2	2
19 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	40.6	35.7	11.6	5.5	3.2	2.2
17 Sep 2025	Abacus Data	2,230	±2.1	40	40	8	7	3	1
12 Sep 2025	Ekos	1,614	±2.4	42	34	12.6	5.2	3	2
12 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,049	±3.0	41.8	34.5	12.8	5.5	2.5	1.9
12 Sep 2025	Research Co.	1,003	±3.1	43	38	8	6	2	1
8 Sep 2025	Ipsos	1,001	±3.8	43	39	7	7	1	2
7 Sep 2025	Léger	1,592	±2.5	47	38	6	6	2	–
5 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	42.7	32.9	12.8	5.2	3.5	1.6
4 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	3,656	±1.5	38	40	10	8	2	1
2 Sep 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	43	40	6	7	2	1
1 Sep 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,008	±3.1	42.3	40.4	8.4	5	1.2	1.6
29 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,009	±3.1	43.3	32.4	12.7	6.2	2.9	1.6
27 Aug 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	10	5	2	2
22 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,045	±3.0	43.7	34.2	10.7	5.5	3.3	1.6
19 Aug 2025	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	39	41	7	7	2	2
15 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,050	±3.0	44.4	32.4	11.6	4.9	3.2	2.8
8 Aug 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	11	6	3	1
8 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,094	±3.0	44.8	31.9	11.5	6.1	2.6	2.5
7 Aug 2025	Abacus Data	1,686	±2.4	43	40	8	6	1.5	1.5
4 Aug 2025	Léger	1,617	±2.4	46	36	6	7	3	–
1 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,096	±3.0	43.7	32.5	12	5.3	2.5	3
1 Aug 2025	Pallas Data	1,301	±2.7	43.2	37.6	7.5	6.3	2.2	–
28 Jul 2025	Innovative Research	3,732	–	41	39	9	7	4	–
25 Jul 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	43	36	10	6	3	1
25 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	43.6	33.5	12.1	5.9	2.3	1.8
18 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,026	±3.1	44.3	34	10.3	6.6	2.3	2
15 Jul 2025	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	43	40	7	6	3	1
14 Jul 2025	Ekos	1,817	±2.3	43.2	30.5	13	5.5	3.5	3.6
11 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,047	±3.0	44.5	33.8	11.1	5.9	2.1	1.9
6 Jul 2025	Léger	1,546	±2.5	48	35	7	6	3	–
4 Jul 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	46	35	9	6	2	1
4 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	45.1	32.6	11.5	6.2	1.8	1.8
2 Jul 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	40	9	7	2	2
2 Jul 2025	Research Co.	1,001	±3.1	47	37	6	6	2	1
30 Jun 2025	Innovative Research	4,029	–	43	38	8	6	3	–
27 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,076	±3.0	44.5	31.4	12.8	5.9	2.5	1.7
26 Jun 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,168	±2.9	47	38	6	3	3	1
20 Jun 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	38	11	6	3	1
20 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,090	±3.0	45.2	30.8	12.2	6.1	2.9	1.5
19 Jun 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±1.9	42	39	7	6	3	1
13 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,080	±3.0	44.2	32.2	11.4	6.3	3.2	1.7
6 Jun 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	39	9	6	2	1
6 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	42.6	32.8	12	6.5	3.9	1.3
5 Jun 2025	Abacus Data	2,585	±1.9	42	39	8	6	3	1
4 Jun 2025	Ekos	1,529	±2.5	43.9	32	12.7	5.2	3	3
30 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	41.7	36.4	10.5	6.5	3.4	1.1
30 May 2025	Spark Insights	3,450	–	41	40	8	7	–	–
23 May 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	44	39	8	6	1	1
23 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,127	±3.0	40.4	38.6	9.8	5.9	3.7	1.3
22 May 2025	Innovative Research	2,517	–	42	39	8	6	3	–
21 May 2025	Abacus Data	2,273	±2.1	41	40	8	7	3	1
16 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,127	±2.9	41.4	39.6	8.5	4.7	3.9	1.3
9 May 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	45	40	7	6	1	1
9 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,259	±2.8	41.5	40.5	7.8	5.1	3.3	1.3
2 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,297	±2.7	41.8	39.2	7.9	5.8	3.2	1.3

National polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s federal polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2025 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 172 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 199 projections, to 2 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	LibLiberal	ConConservative	NDPNDP	BQBloc Québécois	GrnGreen	LibLiberal maj.	ConConservative maj.	Minority
3 Oct 2026	Liaison Strategies	226	82	13	20	2	92%	2%	6%
2 Oct 2026	Nanos Research	225	83	13	20	2	92%	2%	7%
26 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	223	85	13	20	2	91%	2%	7%
25 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	222	86	12	20	2	91%	2%	7%
23 Sep 2026	Abacus Data	220	88	12	21	2	90%	2%	8%
19 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	221	87	13	20	2	90%	2%	8%
18 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	221	88	12	20	2	90%	2%	8%
12 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	219	88	13	21	2	90%	2%	8%

192 earlier projections

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 343 ridings. The national polling average sets each party’s change since that election. A rule fitted on the federal elections since 2006 turns it into a change for each of seven regions, and polls of a single province or region, from the pollsters’ own releases, correct that rule where they exist. Each riding moves with its region, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2025 share, and the ridings are adjusted so that each region reproduces its estimate. The Bloc Québécois runs only in Quebec. A first-term member running again gains a few points and an open seat loses a few; in Quebec, ridings with more French speakers move further in the direction of the province-wide change; members who crossed the floor take a small part of their 2025 vote to their new party.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a national polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from the six federal elections from 2008 to 2025. Tested on each of those elections with only the polls published before it, and with every size fitted on the other five, the projected leader won 82.9% of 1,973 ridings, and 90% ranges contained 93.6% of riding vote shares. Local campaigns, candidates other than incumbents and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2025 election results