Federal seat projection, 28 July 2025
As of 28 July 2025, from 33 polls
No federal election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the national polling average since that election, adjusted region by region with provincial and regional polls, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 3 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 28 July 2025.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the Liberals win a median of 195 seats (90% range 127–258) and a majority in 74%; the Conservatives 117 seats (90% range 59–180) and a majority in 7%; the Bloc Québécois 19 seats (90% range 4–32); the NDP 11 seats (90% range 3–19); the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–3). No party wins a majority in 19%.
Liberal majority
74%
Most seats in 86% of simulations
Conservative majority
7%
Most seats in 14% of simulations
No majority
19%
46 ridings with no party above 60%
172 for a majority
Liberal
195 seats (127–258) · majority 74%
195 seats (127–258) · majority 74%
Conservative
117 seats (59–180) · majority 7%
117 seats (59–180) · majority 7%
NDP
11 seats (3–19)
11 seats (3–19)
Bloc Québécois
19 seats (4–32)
19 seats (4–32)
Green
2 seats (0–3)
2 seats (0–3)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 172 of 343 seats. People’s Party and Other win no seat in the median simulation; People’s Party wins at least one in <1%, Other wins at least one in <1%.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
172 for a majority
Liberal
Median 195, 90%: 127–258
Majority in 74%
Most frequent: 196 (1.3%)
Conservative
Median 117, 90%: 59–180
Majority in 7%
Most frequent: 118 (1.4%)
NDP
Median 11, 90%: 3–19
Most frequent: 12 (8.5%)
Bloc Québécois
Median 19, 90%: 4–32
Most frequent: 21 (5.8%)
Green
Median 2, 90%: 0–3
Most frequent: 2 (50.2%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 195 | 127 to 258 | 196 seats, 1.3% of simulations | 74% |
| Conservative | 117 | 59 to 180 | 118 seats, 1.4% of simulations | 7% |
| NDP | 11 | 3 to 19 | 12 seats, 8.5% of simulations | 0% |
| Bloc Québécois | 19 | 4 to 32 | 21 seats, 5.8% of simulations | 0% |
| Green | 2 | 0 to 3 | 2 seats, 50.2% of simulations | 0% |
What changed
New poll
- Innovative Research, fieldwork to 28 Jul 2025, 3,732 respondentsLiberal 41 · Conservative 39 · NDP 9 · Bloc Québécois 7 · Green 4
Change since 25 Jul 2025
- Median seats: Liberal −6, Conservative +6, NDP 0, Bloc Québécois +2, Green 0.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Liberal −5, Conservative +1; no majority +4.
- Projected leader changed in 7 ridings: Terra Nova—The Peninsulas (Liberal to Conservative); Berthier—Maskinongé (NDP to Bloc Québécois); Kitchener South—Hespeler (Liberal to Conservative); Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes (Liberal to Conservative); Saskatoon South (Liberal to Conservative); North Island—Powell River (NDP to Conservative); Skeena—Bulkley Valley (NDP to Conservative).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Lib | Con | NDP | BQ | Grn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 68 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Likely 80–95% | 64 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Leans 60–80% | 42 | 39 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Toss-up <60% | 46 | ||||
Canada
Ottawa–Gatineau
Vancouver
Greater Toronto
Montreal
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Seats changing hands
Won in 2025Projected
LibLiberal169
ConConservative144
NDPNDP7
BQBloc Québécois22
GrnGreen1
LibLiberal174
ConConservative95
NDPNDP6
BQBloc Québécois20
GrnGreen2
Toss-upToss-up46
| Party | 2025 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibLiberal | 169 | 174 | 7 | – | 2 |
| ConConservative | 144 | 95 | – | 8 | 41 |
| NDPNDP | 7 | 6 | – | – | 1 |
| BQBloc Québécois | 22 | 20 | – | – | 2 |
| GrnGreen | 1 | 2 | 1 | – | – |
| Toss-up | 46 | ||||
The path to a majority
Liberal172nd-best riding: Kildonan—St. Paul, 64% · chance of a majority 74%
Conservative172nd-best riding: Burlington North—Milton West, 21% · chance of a majority 7%
By region
2025 vote projected vote or median seats 90% range of seats 2025 seats
British Columbia43 seats
| Party | Vote, % | Seats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | 41.1%, 2025: 41.8% | 22+2 seats, 90% range 10 to 33; 2025: 20 | |||
| Con | 37.0%, 2025: 41.2% | 15−4 seats, 90% range 5 to 28; 2025: 19 | |||
| NDP | 15.4%, 2025: 13.0% | 4+1 seats, 90% range 1 to 8; 2025: 3 | |||
| Grn | 5.7%, 2025: 3.0% | 1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1 | |||
Alberta37 seats
| Party | Vote, % | Seats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Con | 53.4%, 2025: 63.6% | 27−7 seats, 90% range 18 to 34; 2025: 34 | |||
| Lib | 31.6%, 2025: 27.9% | 8+6 seats, 90% range 2 to 17; 2025: 2 | |||
| NDP | 9.0%, 2025: 6.3% | 2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1 | |||
| Grn | 2.0%, 2025: 0.4% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
| PPC | 1.3%, 2025: 0.9% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
Manitoba and Saskatchewan28 seats
| Party | Vote, % | Seats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Con | 47.3%, 2025: 54.9% | 16−4 seats, 90% range 12 to 20; 2025: 20 | |||
| Lib | 35.3%, 2025: 34.1% | 10+3 seats, 90% range 6 to 14; 2025: 7 | |||
| NDP | 12.0%, 2025: 9.4% | 1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1 | |||
| Grn | 2.1%, 2025: 0.6% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
| PPC | 2.0%, 2025: 0.7% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
Ontario122 seats
| Party | Vote, % | Seats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | 48.2%, 2025: 49.2% | 78+8 seats, 90% range 44 to 108; 2025: 70 | |||
| Con | 38.5%, 2025: 43.8% | 41−11 seats, 90% range 12 to 75; 2025: 52 | |||
| NDP | 8.4%, 2025: 4.8% | 2+2 seats, 90% range 0 to 4; 2025: 0 | |||
| Grn | 2.9%, 2025: 1.1% | 1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 0 | |||
Quebec78 seats
| Party | Vote, % | Seats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | 42.4%, 2025: 42.6% | 48+4 seats, 90% range 34 to 65; 2025: 44 | |||
| BQ | 25.5%, 2025: 27.7% | 19−3 seats, 90% range 4 to 32; 2025: 22 | |||
| Con | 21.3%, 2025: 23.3% | 9−2 seats, 90% range 3 to 16; 2025: 11 | |||
| NDP | 7.4%, 2025: 4.5% | 1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1 | |||
| Grn | 2.5%, 2025: 0.9% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
Atlantic32 seats
| Party | Vote, % | Seats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | 54.9%, 2025: 55.5% | 25+1 seats, 90% range 17 to 31; 2025: 24 | |||
| Con | 34.2%, 2025: 38.0% | 7−1 seats, 90% range 1 to 15; 2025: 8 | |||
| NDP | 7.2%, 2025: 4.3% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
| Grn | 2.5%, 2025: 1.1% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
Territories3 seats
| Party | Vote, % | Seats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | 49.8%, 2025: 50.5% | 2 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 2 | |||
| NDP | 17.3%, 2025: 13.4% | 1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 1 | |||
| Con | 29.6%, 2025: 34.6% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 0 | |||
| Grn | 3.2%, 2025: 1.4% | 0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0 | |||
All 343 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford—South LangleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 43.1%Con 50 (36–64) · Lib 39 (25–53) | Conservative 43.1% | ConConservativeLeans | 78% | Leans | Conservative50.1 (36–64)Liberal38.5 (25–53) |
| Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouQuebec · 2025: Lib 41.2%Lib 43 (28–57) · BQ 30 (17–45) | Liberal 41.2% | LibLiberalLeans | 79% | Leans | Liberal42.5 (28–57)Bloc Québécois30.2 (17–45)Conservative19.6 (8–32) |
| Abitibi—TémiscamingueQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.4%BQ 46 (30–62) · Lib 26 (12–41) | Bloc Québécois 49.4% | BQBloc QuébécoisLikely | 89% | Likely | Bloc Québécois46.1 (30–62)Liberal26.2 (12–41)Conservative17.5 (6–31) |
| Acadie—AnnapolisNova Scotia · 2025: Con 47.7%Lib 51 (35–72) · Con 38 (16–54) | Conservative 47.7% | LibLiberalgain from ConLeans | 77% | Leans | Liberal51.1 (35–72)Conservative37.6 (16–54) |
| Acadie—BathurstNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 67.5%Lib 66 (51–79) · Con 23 (10–36) | Liberal 67.5% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal66.2 (51–79)Conservative22.7 (10–36) |
| Ahuntsic-CartiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 61%Lib 59 (45–71) · BQ 15 (6–25) | Liberal 61% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal58.6 (45–71)Bloc Québécois15.1 (6–25)Conservative13.4 (5–23) |
| Airdrie—CochraneAlberta · 2025: Con 71.2%Con 60 (45–74) · Lib 27 (14–41) | Conservative 71.2% | ConConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Conservative59.9 (45–74)Liberal27.3 (14–41) |
| AjaxOntario · 2025: Lib 56.3%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 32 (19–46) | Liberal 56.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal56.9 (42–71)Conservative32.3 (19–46) |
| Alfred-PellanQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 19 (9–31) | Liberal 54.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal53.1 (39–67)Conservative19.4 (9–31)Bloc Québécois18.4 (8–30) |
| Algonquin—Renfrew—PembrokeOntario · 2025: Con 55.7%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 37 (23–51) | Conservative 55.7% | ConConservativeLikely | 80% | Likely | Conservative49.9 (35–64)Liberal36.9 (23–51) |
| Argenteuil—La Petite-NationQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.5%Lib 46 (32–61) · Con 23 (11–35) | Liberal 47.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal46.3 (32–61)Conservative22.6 (11–35)Bloc Québécois20.5 (9–33) |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillOntario · 2025: Con 54.7%Con 51 (37–65) · Lib 40 (26–55) | Conservative 54.7% | ConConservativeLeans | 76% | Leans | Conservative51.4 (37–65)Liberal40.3 (26–55) |
| AvalonNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 59 (43–73) · Con 31 (17–45) | Liberal 58.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 95% | Likely | Liberal58.9 (43–73)Conservative30.8 (17–45) |
| Barrie South—InnisfilOntario · 2025: Con 57.8%Con 52 (38–67) · Lib 37 (23–52) | Conservative 57.8% | ConConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Conservative52.3 (38–67)Liberal37.4 (23–52) |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 43 (28–58) | Conservative 51.7% | ConConservativeToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Conservative45.7 (31–60)Liberal43.1 (28–58) |
| Battle River—CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 82.8%Con 72 (57–85) · Lib 14 (3–27) | Conservative 82.8% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative72.2 (57–85)Liberal14.4 (3–27) |
| Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow LakeSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 75.8%Con 68 (52–81) · Lib 20 (8–33) | Conservative 75.8% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative67.6 (52–81)Liberal19.9 (8–33) |
| Bay of QuinteOntario · 2025: Lib 50.4%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 37 (24–51) | Liberal 50.4% | LibLiberalLikely | 82% | Likely | Liberal51.0 (37–65)Conservative37.1 (24–51) |
| Beaches—East YorkOntario · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 66 (51–80) · Con 18 (6–31) | Liberal 67.7% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal65.8 (51–80)Conservative17.8 (6–31)NDP10.6 (1–21) |
| BeauceQuebec · 2025: Con 59.7%Con 59 (43–73) · Lib 18 (5–32) | Conservative 59.7% | ConConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Conservative58.9 (43–73)Liberal17.6 (5–32)Bloc Québécois10.9 (1–23) |
| Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—HuntingdonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 41 (27–55) · Lib 31 (18–45) | Bloc Québécois 43.9% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 75% | Leans | Bloc Québécois41.2 (27–55)Liberal31.3 (18–45)Conservative17.5 (7–29) |
| Beauport—LimoilouQuebec · 2025: Lib 35.6%Lib 37 (22–53) · Con 27 (13–41) | Liberal 35.6% | LibLiberalLeans | 68% | Leans | Liberal37.3 (22–53)Conservative26.5 (13–41)Bloc Québécois24.9 (12–39) |
| BeauséjourNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 30 (16–44) | Liberal 60.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal58.8 (44–73)Conservative29.5 (16–44) |
| Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—LévisQuebec · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 46 (30–61) · Lib 28 (13–43) | Conservative 49.1% | ConConservativeLikely | 87% | Likely | Conservative46.1 (30–61)Liberal27.5 (13–43)Bloc Québécois16.4 (5–30) |
| Beloeil—ChamblyQuebec · 2025: BQ 48.3%BQ 45 (30–59) · Lib 33 (19–48) | Bloc Québécois 48.3% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 80% | Leans | Bloc Québécois45.1 (30–59)Liberal32.8 (19–48)Conservative11.7 (2–23) |
| Berthier—MaskinongéQuebec · 2025: BQ 35%BQ 30 (17–45) · NDP 29 (13–44) | Bloc Québécois 35% | BQBloc QuébécoisToss-up | 44% | Toss-up | Bloc Québécois30.0 (17–45)NDP29.4 (13–44)Liberal21.8 (10–36)Conservative14.2 (4–26) |
| BourassaQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 59 (45–71) · BQ 15 (6–25) | Liberal 58.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal58.8 (45–71)Bloc Québécois14.9 (6–25)Conservative14.2 (6–24) |
| Bow RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 78.9%Con 69 (54–82) · Lib 19 (7–32) | Conservative 78.9% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative69.2 (54–82)Liberal19.2 (7–32) |
| Bowmanville—Oshawa NorthOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 44 (30–58) | Conservative 49.8% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Liberal44.7 (30–59)Conservative44.2 (30–58) |
| Brampton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 39 (25–54) | Liberal 48.4% | LibLiberalLeans | 74% | Leans | Liberal49.6 (35–64)Conservative39.4 (25–54) |
| Brampton EastOntario · 2025: Lib 48.6%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 40 (26–54) | Liberal 48.6% | LibLiberalLeans | 70% | Leans | Liberal48.5 (34–63)Conservative40.0 (26–54) |
| Brampton North—CaledonOntario · 2025: Lib 49%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 42 (28–57) | Liberal 49% | LibLiberalLeans | 65% | Leans | Liberal48.5 (34–63)Conservative42.3 (28–57) |
| Brampton SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 43 (28–57) | Liberal 49.3% | LibLiberalLeans | 66% | Leans | Liberal49.2 (34–64)Conservative42.7 (28–57) |
| Brampton WestOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 45 (30–59) | Conservative 49.8% | ConConservativeToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Conservative46.6 (32–61)Liberal44.9 (30–59) |
| Brampton—Chinguacousy ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 48 (34–63) · Con 39 (25–54) | Liberal 48.8% | LibLiberalLeans | 72% | Leans | Liberal48.1 (34–63)Conservative39.3 (25–54) |
| Brandon—SourisManitoba · 2025: Con 62.2%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 23 (11–36) | Conservative 62.2% | ConConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Conservative55.2 (40–69)Liberal23.0 (11–36)NDP17.1 (6–29) |
| Brantford—Brant South—Six NationsOntario · 2025: Con 52.4%Con 46 (32–61) · Lib 40 (26–54) | Conservative 52.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 67% | Leans | Conservative46.4 (32–61)Liberal39.9 (26–54) |
| Brome—MissisquoiQuebec · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 49 (34–64) · BQ 25 (12–39) | Liberal 48.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal49.2 (34–64)Bloc Québécois24.5 (12–39)Conservative16.4 (5–29) |
| Brossard—Saint-LambertQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.2%Lib 61 (47–73) · Con 17 (8–28) | Liberal 62.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal60.8 (47–73)Conservative17.3 (8–28)Bloc Québécois12.0 (4–21) |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 39 (25–53) | Conservative 53% | ConConservativeLeans | 70% | Leans | Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal38.8 (25–53) |
| BurlingtonOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 35 (21–50) | Liberal 55.8% | LibLiberalLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal54.7 (40–69)Conservative35.3 (21–50) |
| Burlington North—Milton WestOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 52 (37–67) · Con 39 (25–53) | Liberal 52.7% | LibLiberalLeans | 79% | Leans | Liberal52.1 (37–67)Conservative39.1 (25–53) |
| Burnaby CentralBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 42.2%Lib 43 (29–58) · Con 33 (20–47) | Liberal 42.2% | LibLiberalLeans | 76% | Leans | Liberal43.1 (29–58)Conservative32.6 (20–47)NDP20.7 (9–33) |
| Burnaby North—SeymourBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.1%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 30 (17–44) | Liberal 59.1% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal58.1 (43–72)Conservative30.1 (17–44) |
| Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—AlnôbakQuebec · 2025: BQ 47%BQ 44 (28–59) · Lib 26 (13–42) | Bloc Québécois 47% | BQBloc QuébécoisLikely | 85% | Likely | Bloc Québécois44.0 (28–59)Liberal26.4 (13–42)Conservative19.5 (7–33) |
| Calgary CentreAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 50 (34–64) · Con 39 (25–54) | Conservative 50.2% | LibLiberalgain from ConLeans | 74% | Leans | Liberal49.7 (34–64)Conservative39.3 (25–54) |
| Calgary ConfederationAlberta · 2025: Lib 48.1%Lib 54 (39–67) · Con 34 (20–48) | Liberal 48.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal53.8 (39–67)Conservative34.0 (20–48) |
| Calgary CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 42 (26–56) | Conservative 58.8% | ConConservativeLeans | 66% | Leans | Conservative47.9 (33–62)Liberal41.5 (26–56) |
| Calgary EastAlberta · 2025: Con 60.5%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 36 (21–50) | Conservative 60.5% | ConConservativeLikely | 81% | Likely | Conservative49.5 (35–64)Liberal35.6 (21–50) |
| Calgary HeritageAlberta · 2025: Con 61.4%Con 50 (35–65) · Lib 39 (24–53) | Conservative 61.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 77% | Leans | Conservative50.4 (35–65)Liberal38.8 (24–53) |
| Calgary McKnightAlberta · 2025: Con 49.1%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 41 (27–55) | Conservative 49.1% | LibLiberalgain from ConLeans | 67% | Leans | Liberal47.7 (33–62)Conservative41.0 (27–55) |
| Calgary MidnaporeAlberta · 2025: Con 65.5%Con 54 (39–69) · Lib 34 (20–48) | Conservative 65.5% | ConConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Conservative54.4 (39–69)Liberal33.9 (20–48) |
| Calgary Nose HillAlberta · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Conservative 59.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 70% | Leans | Conservative48.3 (33–63)Liberal40.1 (25–55) |
| Calgary ShepardAlberta · 2025: Con 68%Con 57 (42–71) · Lib 32 (18–46) | Conservative 68% | ConConservativeLikely | 93% | Likely | Conservative56.7 (42–71)Liberal32.2 (18–46) |
| Calgary Signal HillAlberta · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 51 (37–66) · Lib 39 (25–53) | Conservative 60.1% | ConConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Conservative51.2 (37–66)Liberal38.6 (25–53) |
| Calgary SkyviewAlberta · 2025: Con 55.4%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 41 (27–56) | Conservative 55.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Conservative48.8 (34–63)Liberal41.4 (27–56) |
| CambridgeOntario · 2025: Con 48.6%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 43 (28–57) | Conservative 48.6% | ConConservativeToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Conservative44.9 (30–59)Liberal42.9 (28–57) |
| Cape Breton—Canso—AntigonishNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.6%Lib 51 (36–66) · Con 40 (25–54) | Liberal 51.6% | LibLiberalLeans | 75% | Leans | Liberal50.7 (36–66)Conservative39.6 (25–54) |
| Cape SpearNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 68.3%Lib 68 (53–81) · Con 21 (9–35) | Liberal 68.3% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal67.5 (53–81)Conservative21.2 (9–35) |
| CardiganPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57%Lib 57 (41–72) · Con 34 (19–50) | Liberal 57% | LibLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal56.5 (41–72)Conservative34.3 (19–50) |
| Cariboo—Prince GeorgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 60.3%Con 56 (41–69) · Lib 30 (17–43) | Conservative 60.3% | ConConservativeLikely | 95% | Likely | Conservative55.6 (41–69)Liberal29.7 (17–43) |
| CarletonOntario · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 39 (25–53) | Liberal 50.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 81% | Likely | Liberal52.7 (38–67)Conservative39.1 (25–53) |
| Carlton Trail—Eagle CreekSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.4%Con 69 (54–82) · Lib 18 (7–31) | Conservative 77.4% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative69.1 (54–82)Liberal18.0 (7–31) |
| Central NewfoundlandNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 54.1%Con 50 (34–65) · Lib 43 (28–58) | Conservative 54.1% | ConConservativeLeans | 66% | Leans | Conservative50.0 (34–65)Liberal42.9 (28–58) |
| Central NovaNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 51 (36–66) · Con 39 (24–54) | Liberal 51.9% | LibLiberalLeans | 77% | Leans | Liberal51.0 (36–66)Conservative39.0 (24–54) |
| Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesQuebec · 2025: Con 42.4%Con 40 (24–55) · Lib 34 (19–49) | Conservative 42.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 64% | Leans | Conservative39.8 (24–55)Liberal33.8 (19–49)Bloc Québécois16.9 (5–30) |
| CharlottetownPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 64.8%Lib 63 (47–78) · Con 25 (12–40) | Liberal 64.8% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal62.7 (47–78)Conservative25.4 (12–40) |
| Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 35 (21–49) | Conservative 57.5% | ConConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Conservative51.1 (36–65)Liberal35.1 (21–49) |
| Chicoutimi—Le FjordQuebec · 2025: Con 34.1%Lib 51 (34–68) · BQ 31 (15–47) | Conservative 34.1% | LibLiberalgain from ConLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal51.4 (34–68)Bloc Québécois30.7 (15–47)Conservative11.4 (1–24) |
| Chilliwack—HopeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 35 (21–49) | Conservative 54.8% | ConConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Conservative49.8 (35–64)Liberal34.5 (21–49) |
| Churchill—Keewatinook AskiManitoba · 2025: Lib 45.5%Lib 47 (31–62) · NDP 31 (17–45) | Liberal 45.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 84% | Likely | Liberal46.6 (31–62)NDP31.2 (17–45)Conservative16.4 (6–29) |
| Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.2%Lib 47 (33–60) · BQ 26 (14–38) | Liberal 45.2% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal46.6 (33–60)Bloc Québécois25.9 (14–38)Conservative19.1 (8–30) |
| Cloverdale—Langley CityBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.8%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 43 (29–58) | Conservative 47.8% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Liberal45.7 (31–60)Conservative43.4 (29–58) |
| Columbia—Kootenay—Southern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 45 (30–61) · Lib 27 (14–42) | Conservative 50.4% | ConConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Conservative45.4 (30–61)Liberal27.3 (14–42)NDP21.4 (9–35) |
| Compton—StansteadQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 47 (31–62) · BQ 23 (10–37) | Liberal 45.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal46.6 (31–62)Bloc Québécois22.6 (10–37)Conservative18.9 (7–32) |
| Coquitlam—Port CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 39 (25–53) | Liberal 47.4% | LibLiberalLeans | 70% | Leans | Liberal46.3 (32–60)Conservative38.8 (25–53) |
| Courtenay—AlberniBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 39.6%NDP 44 (28–59) · Con 29 (15–44) | NDP 39.6% | NDPNDPLikely | 80% | Likely | NDP44.1 (28–59)Conservative29.3 (15–44)Liberal20.5 (9–35) |
| Cowichan—Malahat—LangfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 37.2%NDP 35 (20–50) · Con 34 (21–49) | Conservative 37.2% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 47% | Toss-up | NDP35.0 (20–50)Conservative34.4 (21–49)Liberal24.8 (12–39) |
| Cumberland—ColchesterNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 49 (35–64) · Con 40 (25–54) | Liberal 48.3% | LibLiberalLeans | 73% | Leans | Liberal49.3 (35–64)Conservative39.7 (25–54) |
| Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—NitassinanQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.7%BQ 41 (26–57) · Lib 27 (13–42) | Bloc Québécois 43.7% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 77% | Leans | Bloc Québécois41.2 (26–57)Liberal27.0 (13–42)Conservative23.4 (10–37) |
| Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—TémiscouataQuebec · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 43 (27–58) · Lib 30 (15–45) | Conservative 45.8% | ConConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Conservative43.1 (27–58)Liberal29.6 (15–45)Bloc Québécois17.7 (6–31) |
| Dartmouth—Cole HarbourNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 65 (50–79) · Con 19 (8–32) | Liberal 67.7% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal65.0 (50–79)Conservative19.2 (8–32)NDP10.7 (2–21) |
| DavenportOntario · 2025: Lib 57.8%Lib 53 (37–68) · NDP 24 (11–37) | Liberal 57.8% | LibLiberalSolid | 95% | Solid | Liberal52.5 (37–68)NDP23.9 (11–37)Conservative17.5 (6–30) |
| DeltaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 51.8%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 38 (24–51) | Liberal 51.8% | LibLiberalLikely | 85% | Likely | Liberal53.3 (39–67)Conservative37.5 (24–51) |
| Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill RiverSaskatchewan · 2025: Lib 65.1%Lib 66 (51–79) · Con 18 (7–31) | Liberal 65.1% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal65.9 (51–79)Conservative18.2 (7–31)NDP11.2 (2–22) |
| Don Valley NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 54 (40–68) · Con 36 (22–50) | Liberal 53.2% | LibLiberalLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal54.3 (40–68)Conservative35.5 (22–50) |
| Don Valley WestOntario · 2025: Lib 62.6%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 29 (16–42) | Liberal 62.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal61.3 (46–75)Conservative28.5 (16–42) |
| Dorval—Lachine—LaSalleQuebec · 2025: Lib 59.4%Lib 58 (45–70) · Con 19 (10–30) | Liberal 59.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal58.0 (45–70)Conservative19.3 (10–30)Bloc Québécois11.4 (4–20) |
| DrummondQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.8%BQ 40 (24–55) · Lib 27 (13–42) | Bloc Québécois 42.8% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 76% | Leans | Bloc Québécois39.6 (24–55)Liberal27.3 (13–42)Conservative20.4 (8–34) |
| Dufferin—CaledonOntario · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 55 (40–68) · Lib 34 (21–48) | Conservative 60.1% | ConConservativeLikely | 89% | Likely | Conservative54.5 (40–68)Liberal34.4 (21–48) |
| Edmonton CentreAlberta · 2025: Lib 44.3%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 26 (14–40) | Liberal 44.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal48.8 (34–63)Conservative26.2 (14–40)NDP18.7 (7–31) |
| Edmonton GatewayAlberta · 2025: Con 50.6%Lib 43 (28–58) · Con 43 (28–58) | Conservative 50.6% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Liberal43.3 (28–58)Conservative42.8 (28–58) |
| Edmonton GriesbachAlberta · 2025: Con 45.5%NDP 39 (21–54) · Con 36 (22–52) | Conservative 45.5% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | NDP39.1 (21–54)Conservative35.9 (22–52)Liberal18.7 (8–32) |
| Edmonton ManningAlberta · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 42 (27–56) · Lib 39 (24–53) | Conservative 53.1% | ConConservativeToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Conservative41.6 (27–56)Liberal38.5 (24–53)NDP13.2 (3–24) |
| Edmonton NorthwestAlberta · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 40 (25–54) | Conservative 53.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 62% | Leans | Conservative44.7 (30–59)Liberal40.1 (25–54) |
| Edmonton RiverbendAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 55 (38–75) · Con 33 (13–49) | Conservative 50.2% | LibLiberalgain from ConLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal54.7 (38–75)Conservative33.3 (13–49) |
| Edmonton SoutheastAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 44 (30–59) · Lib 41 (26–56) | Conservative 52.9% | ConConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Conservative44.4 (30–59)Liberal40.9 (26–56) |
| Edmonton StrathconaAlberta · 2025: NDP 47%NDP 53 (34–68) · Con 22 (10–37) | NDP 47% | NDPNDPLikely | 94% | Likely | NDP53.4 (34–68)Conservative22.0 (10–37)Liberal18.5 (8–33) |
| Edmonton WestAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Lib 44 (29–59) · Con 42 (27–56) | Conservative 52.9% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Liberal44.4 (29–59)Conservative41.6 (27–56) |
| Eglinton—LawrenceOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 41 (26–55) | Liberal 49.3% | LibLiberalLeans | 74% | Leans | Liberal50.7 (36–65)Conservative40.6 (26–55) |
| EgmontPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 50 (34–66) · Con 39 (23–54) | Liberal 51.9% | LibLiberalLeans | 74% | Leans | Liberal50.2 (34–66)Conservative39.1 (23–54) |
| Elgin—St. Thomas—London SouthOntario · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 40 (26–55) | Conservative 50.1% | ConConservativeLeans | 66% | Leans | Conservative46.9 (32–61)Liberal40.4 (26–55) |
| Elmwood—TransconaManitoba · 2025: Con 41.6%NDP 38 (22–52) · Con 36 (22–51) | Conservative 41.6% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | NDP37.6 (22–52)Conservative35.5 (22–51)Liberal21.1 (9–34) |
| Esquimalt—Saanich—SookeBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 49 (33–64) · Con 23 (11–37) | Liberal 49.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal48.8 (33–64)Conservative23.2 (11–37)NDP20.7 (9–34) |
| EssexOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 52 (36–66) · Lib 36 (22–50) | Conservative 57.5% | ConConservativeLikely | 84% | Likely | Conservative51.5 (36–66)Liberal36.0 (22–50) |
| Etobicoke CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.6%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 39 (25–53) | Liberal 53.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 81% | Likely | Liberal52.7 (38–67)Conservative38.8 (25–53) |
| Etobicoke NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 52.6%Lib 54 (39–67) · Con 34 (21–48) | Liberal 52.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal53.7 (39–67)Conservative34.3 (21–48) |
| Etobicoke—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 57.4%Lib 57 (41–71) · Con 34 (20–48) | Liberal 57.4% | LibLiberalLikely | 91% | Likely | Liberal56.6 (41–71)Conservative33.8 (20–48) |
| Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant NorthOntario · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (28–57) | Conservative 52.7% | ConConservativeLeans | 61% | Leans | Conservative46.9 (32–61)Liberal42.4 (28–57) |
| Fleetwood—Port KellsBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 49 (35–63) · Con 38 (24–52) | Liberal 47.9% | LibLiberalLeans | 77% | Leans | Liberal49.2 (35–63)Conservative38.1 (24–52) |
| FoothillsAlberta · 2025: Con 76.3%Con 65 (50–80) · Lib 23 (10–36) | Conservative 76.3% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative65.4 (50–80)Liberal22.5 (10–36) |
| Fort McMurray—Cold LakeAlberta · 2025: Con 80.2%Con 70 (55–82) · Lib 18 (7–30) | Conservative 80.2% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative69.8 (55–82)Liberal17.8 (7–30) |
| Fredericton—OromoctoNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 61.3%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 27 (14–41) | Liberal 61.3% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal61.1 (46–75)Conservative27.2 (14–41) |
| Fundy RoyalNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 49 (33–64) · Lib 39 (25–54) | Conservative 53.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 73% | Leans | Conservative48.8 (33–64)Liberal39.1 (25–54) |
| Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—ListugujQuebec · 2025: BQ 45.8%BQ 45 (30–61) · Lib 36 (21–52) | Bloc Québécois 45.8% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 73% | Leans | Bloc Québécois45.4 (30–61)Liberal35.7 (21–52)Conservative10.0 (1–22) |
| GatineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.5%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 17 (7–29) | Liberal 60.5% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal59.1 (44–73)Conservative17.2 (7–29)Bloc Québécois14.4 (5–26) |
| Grande PrairieAlberta · 2025: Con 81.7%Con 71 (57–84) · Lib 15 (4–27) | Conservative 81.7% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative71.3 (57–84)Liberal14.7 (4–27) |
| GuelphOntario · 2025: Lib 54.7%Lib 51 (36–67) · Con 23 (11–36) | Liberal 54.7% | LibLiberalSolid | 95% | Solid | Liberal51.1 (36–67)Conservative22.9 (11–36)Green17.5 (2–32) |
| Haldimand—NorfolkOntario · 2025: Con 57.6%Con 52 (36–66) · Lib 35 (21–50) | Conservative 57.6% | ConConservativeLikely | 84% | Likely | Conservative51.5 (36–66)Liberal35.4 (21–50) |
| Haliburton—Kawartha LakesOntario · 2025: Con 56.6%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 38 (24–53) | Conservative 56.6% | ConConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Conservative50.8 (36–65)Liberal38.2 (24–53) |
| HalifaxNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 60 (45–75) · NDP 22 (7–35) | Liberal 63% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal60.1 (45–75)NDP21.5 (7–35)Conservative14.5 (5–27) |
| Halifax WestNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 65.6%Lib 63 (48–77) · Con 24 (11–37) | Liberal 65.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal63.4 (48–77)Conservative23.6 (11–37) |
| Hamilton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 37.6%NDP 37 (21–51) · Lib 36 (22–51) | Liberal 37.6% | NDPNDPgain from LibToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | NDP36.8 (21–51)Liberal35.5 (22–51)Conservative21.6 (10–35) |
| Hamilton East—Stoney CreekOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 44 (30–58) | Conservative 48.7% | ConConservativeToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Conservative45.7 (31–60)Liberal43.7 (30–58) |
| Hamilton MountainOntario · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 43 (29–58) · Con 35 (21–49) | Liberal 45.6% | LibLiberalLeans | 70% | Leans | Liberal43.1 (29–58)Conservative34.9 (21–49)NDP17.8 (7–30) |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasOntario · 2025: Lib 56.1%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 30 (16–44) | Liberal 56.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 95% | Likely | Liberal56.0 (41–70)Conservative29.7 (16–44) |
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington—TyendinagaOntario · 2025: Con 54.3%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 39 (25–54) | Conservative 54.3% | ConConservativeLeans | 72% | Leans | Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal39.3 (25–54) |
| Hochelaga—Rosemont-EstQuebec · 2025: Lib 46.1%Lib 46 (32–59) · BQ 23 (12–35) | Liberal 46.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal45.6 (32–59)Bloc Québécois23.1 (12–35)NDP17.7 (6–29) |
| Honoré-MercierQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.2%Lib 61 (48–72) · Con 19 (9–29) | Liberal 60.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal60.5 (48–72)Conservative19.1 (9–29)Bloc Québécois11.1 (4–20) |
| Hull—AylmerQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 60 (46–73) · Con 15 (6–26) | Liberal 62.1% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal60.1 (46–73)Conservative15.3 (6–26)Bloc Québécois10.5 (2–20) |
| Humber River—Black CreekOntario · 2025: Lib 55.6%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 31 (17–44) | Liberal 55.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal53.9 (39–68)Conservative30.5 (17–44)NDP10.6 (2–21) |
| Huron—BruceOntario · 2025: Con 53.2%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 41 (27–55) | Conservative 53.2% | ConConservativeLeans | 67% | Leans | Conservative47.2 (33–61)Liberal40.6 (27–55) |
| Joliette—ManawanQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.3%BQ 46 (31–60) · Lib 30 (17–44) | Bloc Québécois 49.3% | BQBloc QuébécoisLikely | 85% | Likely | Bloc Québécois46.3 (31–60)Liberal30.3 (17–44)Conservative13.5 (4–25) |
| JonquièreQuebec · 2025: BQ 40%BQ 37 (21–53) · Con 28 (14–43) | Bloc Québécois 40% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 64% | Leans | Bloc Québécois37.2 (21–53)Conservative27.9 (14–43)Liberal25.2 (11–40) |
| Kamloops—Shuswap—Central RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 47 (32–63) · Lib 38 (23–53) | Conservative 52.2% | ConConservativeLeans | 72% | Leans | Conservative47.3 (32–63)Liberal38.0 (23–53) |
| Kamloops—Thompson—NicolaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.5%Con 47 (31–62) · Lib 39 (24–55) | Conservative 51.5% | ConConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Conservative46.9 (31–62)Liberal39.2 (24–55) |
| KanataOntario · 2025: Lib 60.8%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 31 (17–45) | Liberal 60.8% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal59.1 (44–73)Conservative30.5 (17–45) |
| Kapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukOntario · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 36 (22–50) | Conservative 48.9% | ConConservativeLeans | 73% | Leans | Conservative44.7 (31–59)Liberal35.6 (22–50)NDP15.3 (5–27) |
| KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 50 (35–65) · Con 41 (26–55) | Liberal 48.8% | LibLiberalLeans | 72% | Leans | Liberal50.1 (35–65)Conservative40.6 (26–55) |
| Kenora—KiiwetinoongOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 41 (27–56) · Lib 33 (19–47) | Conservative 48.7% | ConConservativeLeans | 70% | Leans | Conservative41.3 (27–56)Liberal32.8 (19–47)NDP20.3 (8–33) |
| Kildonan—St. PaulManitoba · 2025: Con 47.5%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 40 (25–55) | Conservative 47.5% | LibLiberalgain from ConLeans | 64% | Leans | Liberal45.5 (31–60)Conservative39.7 (25–55) |
| Kingston and the IslandsOntario · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 25 (13–39) | Liberal 63.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal60.7 (46–74)Conservative25.3 (13–39) |
| Kings—HantsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 30 (16–44) | Liberal 60.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal58.9 (44–73)Conservative29.6 (16–44) |
| King—VaughanOntario · 2025: Con 61.5%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 35 (21–50) | Conservative 61.5% | ConConservativeLikely | 89% | Likely | Conservative55.9 (41–70)Liberal35.4 (21–50) |
| Kitchener CentreOntario · 2025: Con 34.2%Grn 47 (6–66) · Con 26 (13–45) | Conservative 34.2% | GrnGreengain from ConLikely | 81% | Likely | Green47.4 (6–66)Conservative26.0 (13–45)Liberal20.9 (9–39) |
| Kitchener South—HespelerOntario · 2025: Con 47.9%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 43 (29–57) | Conservative 47.9% | ConConservativeToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Conservative44.2 (30–58)Liberal42.9 (29–57) |
| Kitchener—ConestogaOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 42 (28–56) | Liberal 48.3% | LibLiberalLeans | 64% | Leans | Liberal47.7 (33–62)Conservative42.1 (28–56) |
| La Pointe-de-l'ÎleQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.1%BQ 40 (26–54) · Lib 36 (23–50) | Bloc Québécois 43.1% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 61% | Leans | Bloc Québécois40.1 (26–54)Liberal36.4 (23–50)Conservative11.1 (3–21) |
| La Prairie—AtatekenQuebec · 2025: Lib 44.1%Lib 46 (31–59) · BQ 31 (18–44) | Liberal 44.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 85% | Likely | Liberal45.6 (31–59)Bloc Québécois31.0 (18–44)Conservative14.8 (5–26) |
| LaSalle—Émard—VerdunQuebec · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 51 (37–63) · BQ 18 (8–29) | Liberal 50.9% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal50.6 (37–63)Bloc Québécois18.2 (8–29)NDP14.0 (4–24)Conservative11.6 (4–21) |
| LabradorNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 52 (36–67) · Con 36 (22–51) | Liberal 51.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 84% | Likely | Liberal51.9 (36–67)Conservative35.8 (22–51) |
| Lac-Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 43 (28–59) · Lib 25 (12–41) | Bloc Québécois 46.2% | BQBloc QuébécoisLikely | 82% | Likely | Bloc Québécois43.3 (28–59)Liberal25.4 (12–41)Conservative22.5 (9–37) |
| Lac-Saint-LouisQuebec · 2025: Lib 67.6%Lib 66 (54–77) · Con 22 (12–33) | Liberal 67.6% | LibLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal66.4 (54–77)Conservative22.3 (12–33) |
| LakelandAlberta · 2025: Con 81%Con 70 (56–83) · Lib 15 (5–27) | Conservative 81% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative70.3 (56–83)Liberal15.1 (5–27) |
| Lanark—FrontenacOntario · 2025: Con 50.4%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 44 (30–59) | Conservative 50.4% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Liberal44.5 (30–59)Conservative44.3 (30–59) |
| Langley Township—Fraser HeightsBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.4%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (28–57) | Conservative 51.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 63% | Leans | Conservative47.1 (32–61)Liberal42.2 (28–57) |
| Laurentides—LabelleQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.6%BQ 42 (26–57) · Lib 34 (19–50) | Bloc Québécois 44.6% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 68% | Leans | Bloc Québécois41.5 (26–57)Liberal34.0 (19–50)Conservative13.0 (3–26) |
| Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec · 2025: Lib 52.1%Lib 48 (34–63) · NDP 25 (11–39) | Liberal 52.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal48.0 (34–63)NDP25.3 (11–39)Bloc Québécois12.9 (4–23) |
| Laval—Les ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.7%Lib 49 (35–61) · Con 30 (18–42) | Liberal 49.7% | LibLiberalLikely | 91% | Likely | Liberal48.5 (35–61)Conservative30.3 (18–42)Bloc Québécois13.2 (5–23) |
| Leduc—WetaskiwinAlberta · 2025: Con 74.7%Con 63 (49–77) · Lib 21 (9–34) | Conservative 74.7% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative63.4 (49–77)Liberal20.5 (9–34) |
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau LakesOntario · 2025: Con 50%Con 44 (30–59) · Lib 43 (28–58) | Conservative 50% | ConConservativeToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Conservative44.1 (30–59)Liberal43.2 (28–58) |
| Les Pays-d'en-HautQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 43 (28–57) · BQ 32 (19–46) | Liberal 41% | LibLiberalLeans | 77% | Leans | Liberal42.6 (28–57)Bloc Québécois32.2 (19–46)Conservative15.4 (5–27) |
| LethbridgeAlberta · 2025: Con 61.1%Con 52 (37–67) · Lib 35 (20–50) | Conservative 61.1% | ConConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Conservative52.1 (37–67)Liberal34.9 (20–50) |
| London CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 56.7%Lib 53 (39–68) · Con 25 (13–39) | Liberal 56.7% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal53.4 (39–68)Conservative25.3 (13–39)NDP14.7 (4–26) |
| London WestOntario · 2025: Lib 56.2%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 31 (18–45) | Liberal 56.2% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal54.2 (39–68)Conservative31.4 (18–45) |
| London—FanshaweOntario · 2025: Con 40.6%NDP 35 (19–50) · Con 35 (21–50) | Conservative 40.6% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 47% | Toss-up | NDP35.4 (19–50)Conservative35.0 (21–50)Liberal25.7 (13–40) |
| Long Range MountainsNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 50.3%Con 49 (34–64) · Lib 41 (26–56) | Conservative 50.3% | ConConservativeLeans | 69% | Leans | Conservative49.2 (34–64)Liberal40.5 (26–56) |
| Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyneQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.4%Lib 48 (34–62) · BQ 24 (13–37) | Liberal 49.4% | LibLiberalLikely | 95% | Likely | Liberal47.8 (34–62)Bloc Québécois24.3 (13–37)Conservative14.9 (6–26) |
| Longueuil—Saint-HubertQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 42 (28–56) · BQ 35 (22–49) | Liberal 41% | LibLiberalLeans | 69% | Leans | Liberal42.1 (28–56)Bloc Québécois35.1 (22–49)Conservative11.9 (3–22) |
| Louis-HébertQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.4%Lib 54 (38–69) · BQ 19 (7–33) | Liberal 55.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal53.9 (38–69)Bloc Québécois19.1 (7–33)Conservative18.2 (6–31) |
| Louis-Saint-Laurent—AkiawenhrahkQuebec · 2025: Con 44.9%Con 42 (26–57) · Lib 32 (17–48) | Conservative 44.9% | ConConservativeLeans | 73% | Leans | Conservative42.0 (26–57)Liberal32.1 (17–48)Bloc Québécois16.6 (5–30) |
| Lévis—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 47.7%Con 45 (29–60) · Lib 28 (14–44) | Conservative 47.7% | ConConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Conservative44.9 (29–60)Liberal28.4 (14–44)Bloc Québécois17.2 (6–31) |
| Madawaska—RestigoucheNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 56 (41–71) · Con 35 (21–49) | Liberal 55.2% | LibLiberalLikely | 91% | Likely | Liberal56.3 (41–71)Conservative34.6 (21–49) |
| MalpequePrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57.6%Lib 55 (39–71) · Con 33 (18–47) | Liberal 57.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 91% | Likely | Liberal55.4 (39–71)Conservative32.5 (18–47) |
| Marc-Aurèle-FortinQuebec · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 53 (39–66) · BQ 21 (10–32) | Liberal 52% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal52.6 (39–66)Bloc Québécois20.7 (10–32)Conservative18.2 (8–29) |
| Markham—StouffvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 40 (26–54) | Liberal 51.4% | LibLiberalLeans | 75% | Leans | Liberal50.5 (36–65)Conservative40.0 (26–54) |
| Markham—ThornhillOntario · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 56 (41–69) · Con 35 (22–49) | Liberal 54.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 90% | Likely | Liberal55.8 (41–69)Conservative35.3 (22–49) |
| Markham—UnionvilleOntario · 2025: Con 50.7%Lib 53 (36–74) · Con 39 (18–55) | Conservative 50.7% | LibLiberalgain from ConLeans | 77% | Leans | Liberal52.6 (36–74)Conservative38.5 (18–55) |
| Medicine Hat—Cardston—WarnerAlberta · 2025: Con 76.7%Con 65 (50–79) · Lib 21 (9–34) | Conservative 76.7% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative65.4 (50–79)Liberal20.8 (9–34) |
| Middlesex—LondonOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 41 (27–55) | Conservative 51.7% | ConConservativeLeans | 62% | Leans | Conservative45.6 (31–60)Liberal40.9 (27–55) |
| Milton East—Halton Hills SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 41 (27–55) | Liberal 48.3% | LibLiberalLeans | 72% | Leans | Liberal49.7 (35–64)Conservative41.0 (27–55) |
| MirabelQuebec · 2025: BQ 39.9%BQ 37 (23–51) · Lib 33 (19–47) | Bloc Québécois 39.9% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 60% | Leans | Bloc Québécois37.2 (23–51)Liberal32.5 (19–47)Conservative20.2 (9–33) |
| Miramichi—Grand LakeNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 44 (29–59) | Conservative 48.2% | ConConservativeToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Conservative46.0 (31–61)Liberal43.7 (29–59) |
| Mission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 56.7%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 36 (22–50) | Conservative 56.7% | ConConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Conservative52.0 (37–66)Liberal36.1 (22–50) |
| Mississauga CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.9%Lib 55 (41–69) · Con 35 (22–49) | Liberal 53.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 90% | Likely | Liberal55.4 (41–69)Conservative35.3 (22–49) |
| Mississauga East—CooksvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 50.2%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 40 (26–54) | Liberal 50.2% | LibLiberalLeans | 74% | Leans | Liberal49.7 (35–64)Conservative39.8 (26–54) |
| Mississauga—Erin MillsOntario · 2025: Lib 55.7%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 35 (21–49) | Liberal 55.7% | LibLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal54.9 (40–69)Conservative35.0 (21–49) |
| Mississauga—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 52.4%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 39 (25–53) | Liberal 52.4% | LibLiberalLeans | 79% | Leans | Liberal51.6 (37–66)Conservative38.6 (25–53) |
| Mississauga—MaltonOntario · 2025: Lib 53.3%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 37 (23–52) | Liberal 53.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 83% | Likely | Liberal52.7 (38–67)Conservative37.2 (23–52) |
| Mississauga—StreetsvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 39 (25–54) | Liberal 51.5% | LibLiberalLeans | 76% | Leans | Liberal50.6 (36–65)Conservative39.4 (25–54) |
| Moncton—DieppeNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 61 (45–75) · Con 27 (14–41) | Liberal 63% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal60.8 (45–75)Conservative27.3 (14–41) |
| Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’AcadieQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.1%Lib 48 (34–62) · BQ 31 (18–45) | Liberal 47.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 87% | Likely | Liberal48.2 (34–62)Bloc Québécois31.1 (18–45)Conservative11.4 (3–22) |
| MontcalmQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.6%BQ 43 (29–58) · Lib 26 (13–40) | Bloc Québécois 46.6% | BQBloc QuébécoisLikely | 86% | Likely | Bloc Québécois43.4 (29–58)Liberal25.9 (13–40)Conservative20.9 (9–33) |
| Montmorency—CharlevoixQuebec · 2025: Con 34.5%Con 35 (20–50) · BQ 30 (15–45) | Conservative 34.5% | ConConservativeToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Conservative35.0 (20–50)Bloc Québécois29.8 (15–45)Liberal26.7 (13–42) |
| Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—LaniganSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.9%Con 64 (48–78) · Lib 18 (6–30) | Conservative 71.9% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative63.6 (48–78)Liberal17.7 (6–30)NDP10.1 (2–20) |
| Mount RoyalQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 50 (37–62) · Con 38 (25–51) | Liberal 51.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 81% | Likely | Liberal49.8 (37–62)Conservative38.2 (25–51) |
| Mégantic—L’Érable—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 56 (39–70) · Lib 21 (8–35) | Conservative 58.8% | ConConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Conservative55.8 (39–70)Liberal20.8 (8–35)Bloc Québécois14.1 (3–27) |
| Nanaimo—LadysmithBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 31 (17–46) · Grn 26 (7–42) | Conservative 35.5% | ConConservativeToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Conservative30.9 (17–46)Green25.7 (7–42)Liberal22.8 (10–37)NDP18.8 (7–32) |
| NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.8%Lib 64 (50–77) · Con 27 (14–41) | Liberal 63.8% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal64.1 (50–77)Conservative27.0 (14–41) |
| New Tecumseth—GwillimburyOntario · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 36 (22–51) | Conservative 59.4% | ConConservativeLikely | 86% | Likely | Conservative53.5 (39–68)Liberal36.3 (22–51) |
| New Westminster—Burnaby—MaillardvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 35.1%Lib 36 (22–50) · NDP 35 (20–48) | Liberal 35.1% | LibLiberalToss-up | 48% | Toss-up | Liberal35.6 (22–50)NDP34.5 (20–48)Conservative25.5 (14–38) |
| Newmarket—AuroraOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 48 (33–61) · Lib 44 (30–59) | Conservative 50.6% | ConConservativeToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Conservative47.5 (33–61)Liberal44.4 (30–59) |
| Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-LakeOntario · 2025: Con 49.1%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 43 (29–58) | Conservative 49.1% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Liberal43.7 (29–58)Conservative43.3 (29–58) |
| Niagara SouthOntario · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 41 (27–55) | Conservative 47.8% | ConConservativeToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Conservative44.2 (30–58)Liberal40.7 (27–55) |
| Niagara WestOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 43 (28–57) | Conservative 51.7% | ConConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Conservative46.1 (31–61)Liberal42.6 (28–57) |
| Nipissing—TimiskamingOntario · 2025: Lib 47.2%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 37 (23–51) | Liberal 47.2% | LibLiberalLeans | 77% | Leans | Liberal48.0 (33–63)Conservative36.8 (23–51) |
| North Island—Powell RiverBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 38.7%Con 36 (23–50) · NDP 35 (21–49) | Conservative 38.7% | ConConservativeToss-up | 48% | Toss-up | Conservative35.9 (23–50)NDP35.3 (21–49)Liberal23.2 (12–36) |
| North Vancouver—CapilanoBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 60 (45–75) · Con 28 (15–43) | Liberal 59.8% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal60.3 (45–75)Conservative28.2 (15–43) |
| Northumberland—ClarkeOntario · 2025: Con 49%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 44 (29–58) | Conservative 49% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Liberal45.0 (30–59)Conservative43.7 (29–58) |
| Northwest TerritoriesNorthwest Territories · 2025: Lib 53.5%Lib 53 (34–71) · Con 27 (11–44) | Liberal 53.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 90% | Likely | Liberal52.9 (34–71)Conservative27.1 (11–44)NDP15.9 (2–31) |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—WestmountQuebec · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 62 (49–74) · Con 18 (9–28) | Liberal 64% | LibLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal62.0 (49–74)Conservative18.3 (9–28)NDP10.4 (2–19) |
| NunavutNunavut · 2025: NDP 37.3%NDP 39 (12–59) · Lib 38 (19–62) | NDP 37.3% | NDPNDPToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | NDP39.2 (12–59)Liberal38.0 (19–62)Conservative20.7 (6–38) |
| Oakville EastOntario · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 39 (25–54) | Liberal 51.1% | LibLiberalLeans | 75% | Leans | Liberal50.1 (35–64)Conservative39.4 (25–54) |
| Oakville WestOntario · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 54 (40–68) · Con 38 (23–51) | Liberal 53.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 85% | Likely | Liberal54.2 (40–68)Conservative37.6 (23–51) |
| Okanagan Lake West—South KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.9%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 44 (29–59) | Conservative 50.9% | ConConservativeToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Conservative46.4 (31–61)Liberal43.6 (29–59) |
| OrléansOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 66 (51–79) · Con 23 (11–36) | Liberal 67.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal65.9 (51–79)Conservative23.4 (11–36) |
| OshawaOntario · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 39 (25–54) | Conservative 48.2% | ConConservativeLeans | 63% | Leans | Conservative44.0 (29–58)Liberal39.0 (25–54)NDP11.6 (3–22) |
| Ottawa CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 62.7%Lib 57 (41–72) · NDP 27 (12–41) | Liberal 62.7% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal56.5 (41–72)NDP27.0 (12–41)Conservative10.8 (2–22) |
| Ottawa SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 65.2%Lib 62 (48–76) · Con 22 (10–35) | Liberal 65.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal62.4 (48–76)Conservative22.0 (10–35) |
| Ottawa West—NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 22 (10–35) | Liberal 63.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal60.7 (46–75)Conservative22.0 (10–35)NDP11.3 (2–21) |
| Ottawa—Vanier—GloucesterOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 64 (49–77) · Con 17 (6–29) | Liberal 67.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal63.7 (49–77)Conservative16.7 (6–29)NDP11.8 (3–22) |
| OutremontQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 53 (39–66) · NDP 15 (5–26) | Liberal 55.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal52.5 (39–66)NDP15.0 (5–26)Conservative10.9 (3–20)Bloc Québécois10.3 (3–19)Green10.3 (1–18) |
| OxfordOntario · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 47 (33–62) · Lib 37 (23–52) | Conservative 53.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 75% | Leans | Conservative47.3 (33–62)Liberal37.1 (23–52) |
| PapineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 53%Lib 52 (38–65) · NDP 21 (9–34) | Liberal 53% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal51.7 (38–65)NDP21.1 (9–34)Bloc Québécois13.8 (5–23) |
| ParklandAlberta · 2025: Con 75.2%Con 64 (49–78) · Lib 21 (9–34) | Conservative 75.2% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative64.3 (49–78)Liberal21.1 (9–34) |
| Parry Sound—MuskokaOntario · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (27–56) | Conservative 52.2% | ConConservativeLeans | 61% | Leans | Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal42.1 (27–56) |
| Peace River—WestlockAlberta · 2025: Con 77.1%Con 71 (56–83) · Lib 15 (5–27) | Conservative 77.1% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative70.5 (56–83)Liberal15.1 (5–27) |
| Perth—WellingtonOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 40 (26–54) | Conservative 53% | ConConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Conservative47.2 (32–61)Liberal40.0 (26–54) |
| PeterboroughOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 55 (41–69) · Con 34 (21–48) | Liberal 54.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 90% | Likely | Liberal55.1 (41–69)Conservative34.2 (21–48) |
| Pickering—BrooklinOntario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 55 (41–69) · Con 34 (21–48) | Liberal 54.2% | LibLiberalLikely | 91% | Likely | Liberal54.9 (41–69)Conservative34.4 (21–48) |
| Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—VerchèresQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.1%BQ 43 (28–58) · Lib 38 (23–52) | Bloc Québécois 46.1% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 64% | Leans | Bloc Québécois43.2 (28–58)Liberal37.7 (23–52)Conservative10.0 (1–20) |
| Pierrefonds—DollardQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 59 (47–71) · Con 29 (18–40) | Liberal 60.1% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal59.3 (47–71)Conservative29.1 (18–40) |
| Pitt Meadows—Maple RidgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.4%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 43 (29–57) | Conservative 47.4% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Liberal45.1 (31–60)Conservative43.2 (29–57) |
| Ponoka—DidsburyAlberta · 2025: Con 81.8%Con 72 (57–84) · NDP 15 (5–28) | Conservative 81.8% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative72.0 (57–84)NDP15.4 (5–28) |
| Pontiac—Kitigan ZibiQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 53 (37–68) · Con 25 (13–39) | Liberal 54.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal52.8 (37–68)Conservative25.2 (13–39) |
| Port Moody—CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 43.5%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 34 (21–48) | Liberal 43.5% | LibLiberalLeans | 76% | Leans | Liberal44.5 (30–59)Conservative34.0 (21–48)NDP17.3 (7–29) |
| Portage—LisgarManitoba · 2025: Con 69.4%Con 61 (46–75) · Lib 24 (12–38) | Conservative 69.4% | ConConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Conservative61.4 (46–75)Liberal24.1 (12–38) |
| Portneuf—Jacques-CartierQuebec · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 47 (30–62) · Lib 28 (14–44) | Conservative 49.6% | ConConservativeLikely | 86% | Likely | Conservative46.7 (30–62)Liberal28.4 (14–44)Bloc Québécois15.7 (4–29) |
| Prescott—Russell—CumberlandOntario · 2025: Lib 54.8%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 34 (20–47) | Liberal 54.8% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal55.6 (41–70)Conservative33.7 (20–47) |
| Prince AlbertSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.5%Con 63 (47–77) · Lib 20 (8–33) | Conservative 71.5% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative62.7 (47–77)Liberal20.1 (8–33)NDP12.1 (3–23) |
| Prince George—Peace River—Northern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 71.1%Con 66 (50–79) · Lib 19 (7–33) | Conservative 71.1% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative66.0 (50–79)Liberal18.9 (7–33) |
| ProvencherManitoba · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 58 (43–73) · Lib 27 (14–41) | Conservative 66.3% | ConConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Conservative58.3 (43–73)Liberal27.1 (14–41) |
| Québec CentreQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 47 (32–62) · BQ 33 (18–47) | Liberal 49.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 83% | Likely | Liberal47.1 (32–62)Bloc Québécois32.5 (18–47)NDP11.9 (2–22) |
| Red DeerAlberta · 2025: Con 71.6%Con 62 (47–76) · Lib 24 (12–38) | Conservative 71.6% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative62.1 (47–76)Liberal24.3 (12–38) |
| Regina—LewvanSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50%Lib 44 (29–59) · Con 42 (27–57) | Conservative 50% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Liberal43.9 (29–59)Conservative42.1 (27–57) |
| Regina—Qu'AppelleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 64%Con 56 (40–71) · Lib 28 (14–42) | Conservative 64% | ConConservativeLikely | 95% | Likely | Conservative55.6 (40–71)Liberal28.0 (14–42)NDP10.5 (2–21) |
| Regina—WascanaSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50.1%Lib 45 (29–60) · Con 42 (27–57) | Conservative 50.1% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Liberal45.0 (29–60)Conservative42.2 (27–57) |
| RepentignyQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.2%BQ 42 (28–56) · Lib 36 (22–50) | Bloc Québécois 42.2% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 66% | Leans | Bloc Québécois42.1 (28–56)Liberal36.3 (22–50)Conservative12.8 (3–23) |
| Richmond Centre—MarpoleBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 48 (33–61) · Lib 42 (28–56) | Conservative 49.6% | ConConservativeLeans | 64% | Leans | Conservative47.5 (33–61)Liberal42.1 (28–56) |
| Richmond East—StevestonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 42 (28–56) | Liberal 48.4% | LibLiberalLeans | 64% | Leans | Liberal47.6 (33–62)Conservative42.0 (28–56) |
| Richmond Hill SouthOntario · 2025: Con 52.3%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 42 (28–56) | Conservative 52.3% | ConConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Conservative49.0 (34–63)Liberal41.9 (28–56) |
| Richmond—ArthabaskaQuebec · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 36 (21–51) · Lib 31 (16–46) | Conservative 35.5% | ConConservativeToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Conservative36.1 (21–51)Liberal30.9 (16–46)Bloc Québécois23.8 (11–38) |
| Riding MountainManitoba · 2025: Con 67.8%Con 60 (44–73) · Lib 23 (11–37) | Conservative 67.8% | ConConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Conservative59.6 (44–73)Liberal23.2 (11–37) |
| Rimouski—La MatapédiaQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 44 (28–60) · Lib 35 (20–51) | Bloc Québécois 46.2% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 70% | Leans | Bloc Québécois44.0 (28–60)Liberal35.3 (20–51)Conservative11.9 (1–24) |
| Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 47 (33–61) · BQ 29 (17–42) | Liberal 45.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal47.2 (33–61)Bloc Québécois29.3 (17–42)Conservative15.0 (6–26) |
| Rivière-du-NordQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.8%BQ 41 (26–56) · Lib 31 (17–45) | Bloc Québécois 43.8% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 76% | Leans | Bloc Québécois40.8 (26–56)Liberal30.6 (17–45)Conservative18.8 (8–31) |
| Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec · 2025: NDP 41%NDP 50 (29–65) · Lib 27 (14–42) | NDP 41% | NDPNDPLikely | 90% | Likely | NDP49.9 (29–65)Liberal26.6 (14–42)Bloc Québécois14.3 (5–26) |
| Saanich—Gulf IslandsBritish Columbia · 2025: Grn 39.1%Grn 52 (25–68) · Lib 25 (11–44) | Green 39.1% | GrnGreenLikely | 88% | Likely | Green51.5 (25–68)Liberal25.0 (11–44)Conservative17.4 (6–33) |
| Sackville—Bedford—PrestonNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 62%Lib 62 (47–76) · Con 28 (14–41) | Liberal 62% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal61.9 (47–76)Conservative27.5 (14–41) |
| Saint John—KennebecasisNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 58.1%Lib 57 (41–71) · Con 33 (19–48) | Liberal 58.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal56.5 (41–71)Conservative33.2 (19–48) |
| Saint John—St. CroixNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 49 (33–63) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Conservative 53.1% | ConConservativeLeans | 70% | Leans | Conservative48.6 (33–63)Liberal40.2 (25–55) |
| Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 41 (26–56) · Lib 33 (18–48) | Bloc Québécois 43.9% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 70% | Leans | Bloc Québécois40.8 (26–56)Liberal32.6 (18–48)Conservative15.9 (5–29) |
| Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.3%BQ 42 (27–56) · Lib 33 (19–48) | Bloc Québécois 44.3% | BQBloc QuébécoisLeans | 71% | Leans | Bloc Québécois41.5 (27–56)Liberal33.4 (19–48)Conservative14.4 (4–26) |
| Saint-LaurentQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.9%Lib 58 (44–70) · Con 27 (16–38) | Liberal 58.9% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal57.6 (44–70)Conservative26.6 (16–38) |
| Saint-Léonard—Saint-MichelQuebec · 2025: Lib 65.3%Lib 63 (50–75) · Con 19 (9–29) | Liberal 65.3% | LibLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal63.3 (50–75)Conservative18.9 (9–29) |
| Saint-Maurice—ChamplainQuebec · 2025: Lib 50%Lib 49 (32–65) · Con 22 (10–36) | Liberal 50% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal48.9 (32–65)Conservative22.4 (10–36)Bloc Québécois18.7 (6–33) |
| Sarnia—Lambton—BkejwanongOntario · 2025: Con 53.1%Lib 44 (28–66) · Con 41 (18–57) | Conservative 53.1% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Liberal43.6 (28–66)Conservative40.7 (18–57) |
| Saskatoon SouthSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 49.3%Con 41 (26–56) · Lib 41 (26–56) | Conservative 49.3% | ConConservativeToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Conservative41.3 (26–56)Liberal41.1 (26–56)NDP11.6 (2–22) |
| Saskatoon WestSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 44 (29–59) · Lib 28 (14–42) | Conservative 52.7% | ConConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Conservative43.8 (29–59)Liberal27.6 (14–42)NDP23.0 (10–36) |
| Saskatoon—UniversitySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 48.9%Lib 42 (27–57) · Con 41 (26–56) | Conservative 48.9% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Liberal42.1 (27–57)Conservative40.9 (26–56)NDP11.0 (2–21) |
| Sault Ste. Marie—AlgomaOntario · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 38 (24–53) | Liberal 47.4% | LibLiberalLeans | 68% | Leans | Liberal45.5 (31–60)Conservative38.4 (24–53)NDP10.7 (2–21) |
| Scarborough Centre—Don Valley EastOntario · 2025: Lib 57.3%Lib 56 (42–71) · Con 33 (19–47) | Liberal 57.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal56.4 (42–71)Conservative33.0 (19–47) |
| Scarborough NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 62 (46–75) · Con 28 (16–42) | Liberal 63% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal61.5 (46–75)Conservative28.0 (16–42) |
| Scarborough SouthwestOntario · 2025: Lib 61.5%Lib 61 (45–76) · Con 24 (11–39) | Liberal 61.5% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal60.8 (45–76)Conservative24.3 (11–39) |
| Scarborough—AgincourtOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 38 (24–52) | Liberal 54.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 84% | Likely | Liberal53.4 (39–67)Conservative37.7 (24–52) |
| Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 26 (14–40) | Liberal 64% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal61.9 (47–75)Conservative26.4 (14–40) |
| Scarborough—WoburnOntario · 2025: Lib 60.4%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 29 (16–43) | Liberal 60.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal58.7 (44–73)Conservative28.9 (16–43) |
| Selkirk—Interlake—EastmanManitoba · 2025: Con 60.2%Con 52 (37–67) · Lib 32 (18–46) | Conservative 60.2% | ConConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Conservative52.0 (37–67)Liberal31.7 (18–46) |
| SheffordQuebec · 2025: BQ 40.1%Lib 38 (23–53) · BQ 37 (22–53) | Bloc Québécois 40.1% | LibLiberalgain from BQToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Liberal38.2 (23–53)Bloc Québécois37.2 (22–53)Conservative15.2 (4–28) |
| SherbrookeQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.3%Lib 50 (34–65) · BQ 24 (11–38) | Liberal 51.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal49.5 (34–65)Bloc Québécois23.7 (11–38)Conservative11.1 (1–23) |
| Sherwood Park—Fort SaskatchewanAlberta · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 31 (17–45) | Conservative 66.3% | ConConservativeLikely | 93% | Likely | Conservative54.7 (40–69)Liberal30.9 (17–45) |
| Simcoe NorthOntario · 2025: Con 48.4%Lib 43 (29–58) · Con 42 (28–57) | Conservative 48.4% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Liberal43.2 (29–58)Conservative42.3 (28–57) |
| Simcoe—GreyOntario · 2025: Con 52.1%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 42 (28–57) | Conservative 52.1% | ConConservativeToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Conservative46.1 (31–60)Liberal42.3 (28–57) |
| Similkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenayBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 44.1%Con 42 (27–56) · Lib 34 (20–49) | Conservative 44.1% | ConConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Conservative41.5 (27–56)Liberal34.2 (20–49)NDP18.4 (7–31) |
| Skeena—Bulkley ValleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.2%Con 43 (29–58) · NDP 42 (26–56) | Conservative 47.2% | ConConservativeToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Conservative43.1 (29–58)NDP42.2 (26–56) |
| Souris—Moose MountainSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 84%Con 77 (64–88) · Lib 10 (1–21) | Conservative 84% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative77.4 (64–88)Liberal10.1 (1–21) |
| South Shore—St. MargaretsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.9%Lib 56 (42–71) · Con 36 (22–51) | Liberal 54.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal56.4 (42–71)Conservative36.4 (22–51) |
| South Surrey—White RockBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 50.5%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 40 (25–54) | Liberal 50.5% | LibLiberalLeans | 79% | Leans | Liberal51.7 (37–66)Conservative39.7 (25–54) |
| Spadina—HarbourfrontOntario · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 24 (12–38) | Liberal 60.1% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal59.1 (44–73)Conservative24.3 (12–38)NDP11.7 (3–22) |
| St. Albert—Sturgeon RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 63.9%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 34 (19–48) | Conservative 63.9% | ConConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Conservative52.6 (38–67)Liberal33.7 (19–48) |
| St. Boniface—St. VitalManitoba · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 24 (12–38) | Liberal 59.8% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal61.7 (47–75)Conservative24.3 (12–38) |
| St. CatharinesOntario · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 35 (21–49) | Liberal 52% | LibLiberalLikely | 84% | Likely | Liberal50.7 (36–65)Conservative35.1 (21–49)NDP10.1 (2–20) |
| St. John's EastNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 62.3%Lib 59 (43–74) · Con 22 (9–36) | Liberal 62.3% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal59.1 (43–74)Conservative21.7 (9–36)NDP16.0 (4–28) |
| Stormont—Dundas—GlengarryOntario · 2025: Con 56.3%Con 50 (35–65) · Lib 39 (24–53) | Conservative 56.3% | ConConservativeLeans | 77% | Leans | Conservative50.3 (35–65)Liberal38.9 (24–53) |
| SudburyOntario · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 33 (20–48) | Liberal 51.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 86% | Likely | Liberal49.9 (35–64)Conservative33.4 (20–48)NDP12.2 (3–23) |
| Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltOntario · 2025: Con 48.3%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 38 (24–52) | Conservative 48.3% | ConConservativeLeans | 66% | Leans | Conservative44.2 (30–58)Liberal38.2 (24–52)NDP12.0 (3–23) |
| Surrey CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 39 (25–53) | Liberal 48% | LibLiberalLeans | 70% | Leans | Liberal47.2 (33–61)Conservative38.9 (25–53) |
| Surrey NewtonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 40 (26–54) | Liberal 49.5% | LibLiberalLeans | 71% | Leans | Liberal48.7 (34–63)Conservative40.0 (26–54) |
| Swift Current—Grasslands—KindersleySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 82%Con 75 (60–87) · Lib 12 (2–24) | Conservative 82% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative74.7 (60–87)Liberal12.2 (2–24) |
| Sydney—Glace BayNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 54 (39–69) · Con 35 (21–50) | Liberal 54.6% | LibLiberalLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal54.3 (39–69)Conservative35.0 (21–50) |
| Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 52 (37–67) · NDP 30 (15–44) | Liberal 55.8% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal51.7 (37–67)NDP29.7 (15–44)Conservative13.2 (3–25) |
| Terra Nova—The PeninsulasNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 48%Con 46 (31–62) · Lib 45 (29–60) | Conservative 48% | ConConservativeToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Conservative46.2 (31–62)Liberal44.8 (29–60) |
| TerrebonneQuebec · 2025: Lib 38.7%Lib 41 (25–56) · BQ 35 (19–49) | Liberal 38.7% | LibLiberalLeans | 65% | Leans | Liberal40.5 (25–56)Bloc Québécois34.5 (19–49)Conservative15.6 (5–28) |
| ThornhillOntario · 2025: Con 66.4%Con 61 (46–74) · Lib 31 (18–45) | Conservative 66.4% | ConConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Conservative60.9 (46–74)Liberal30.8 (18–45) |
| Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverOntario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 37 (23–51) | Liberal 48.5% | LibLiberalLeans | 74% | Leans | Liberal46.7 (32–61)Conservative36.8 (23–51)NDP11.0 (2–21) |
| Thunder Bay—Superior NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 30 (17–44) | Liberal 55.2% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal52.9 (38–67)Conservative30.0 (17–44)NDP11.4 (2–22) |
| Thérèse-De BlainvilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.8%Lib 47 (33–61) · BQ 29 (16–42) | Liberal 45.8% | LibLiberalLikely | 90% | Likely | Liberal47.0 (33–61)Bloc Québécois28.7 (16–42)Conservative16.1 (6–27) |
| Tobique—MactaquacNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 54 (39–69) · Lib 35 (21–50) | Conservative 58.8% | ConConservativeLikely | 87% | Likely | Conservative54.4 (39–69)Liberal34.9 (21–50) |
| Toronto CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 64.3%Lib 62 (47–75) · NDP 18 (6–29) | Liberal 64.3% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal61.5 (47–75)NDP17.6 (6–29)Conservative15.3 (5–27) |
| Toronto—DanforthOntario · 2025: Lib 66.6%Lib 62 (46–76) · NDP 19 (7–31) | Liberal 66.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal61.7 (46–76)NDP18.8 (7–31)Conservative14.2 (4–26) |
| Toronto—St. Paul'sOntario · 2025: Lib 61.9%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 27 (14–40) | Liberal 61.9% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal61.9 (47–75)Conservative26.8 (14–40) |
| Trois-RivièresQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 43 (27–58) · BQ 24 (11–38) | Liberal 41% | LibLiberalLikely | 83% | Likely | Liberal42.5 (27–58)Bloc Québécois24.0 (11–38)Conservative23.9 (11–38) |
| University—RosedaleOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 61 (45–76) · Con 18 (6–31) | Liberal 64% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal61.4 (45–76)Conservative17.6 (6–31)NDP14.2 (3–26) |
| Vancouver CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 26 (14–39) | Liberal 55.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal53.4 (39–67)Conservative26.2 (14–39)NDP15.3 (5–27) |
| Vancouver EastBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 43.6%NDP 48 (32–62) · Lib 32 (19–47) | NDP 43.6% | NDPNDPLikely | 84% | Likely | NDP47.9 (32–62)Liberal32.1 (19–47)Conservative13.5 (4–25) |
| Vancouver Fraserview—South BurnabyBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 52.3%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 30 (18–43) | Liberal 52.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal52.9 (38–67)Conservative30.1 (18–43)NDP11.6 (3–22) |
| Vancouver GranvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 25 (13–38) | Liberal 62.1% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal60.3 (45–74)Conservative24.7 (13–38) |
| Vancouver KingswayBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 37.2%NDP 42 (26–56) · Lib 34 (20–48) | NDP 37.2% | NDPNDPLeans | 69% | Leans | NDP41.5 (26–56)Liberal33.9 (20–48)Conservative19.9 (9–33) |
| Vancouver QuadraBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 63 (49–76) · Con 25 (13–38) | Liberal 63.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal63.3 (49–76)Conservative25.3 (13–38) |
| VaudreuilQuebec · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 57 (43–69) · Con 21 (11–32) | Liberal 57.9% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal56.8 (43–69)Conservative21.3 (11–32)Bloc Québécois13.5 (5–23) |
| Vaughan—WoodbridgeOntario · 2025: Con 60%Con 57 (42–71) · Lib 36 (22–50) | Conservative 60% | ConConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Conservative56.7 (42–71)Liberal36.1 (22–50) |
| Vernon—Lake Country—MonasheeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Conservative 50.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 69% | Leans | Conservative48.1 (33–62)Liberal39.9 (25–55) |
| VictoriaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 53 (37–68) · NDP 27 (13–41) | Liberal 54.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal52.7 (37–68)NDP27.0 (13–41)Conservative12.5 (2–25) |
| Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-SoeursQuebec · 2025: Lib 63.7%Lib 62 (48–74) · Con 17 (8–27) | Liberal 63.7% | LibLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal61.5 (48–74)Conservative17.3 (8–27) |
| VimyQuebec · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 52 (38–65) · Con 23 (12–34) | Liberal 53.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal51.8 (38–65)Conservative22.8 (12–34)Bloc Québécois15.5 (6–26) |
| WaterlooOntario · 2025: Lib 59.5%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 27 (14–41) | Liberal 59.5% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal57.1 (42–71)Conservative27.2 (14–41) |
| Wellington—Halton Hills NorthOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 43 (29–57) | Conservative 50.6% | ConConservativeToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Conservative44.8 (30–59)Liberal43.1 (29–57) |
| West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky CountryBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.7%Lib 58 (43–71) · Con 29 (16–42) | Liberal 59.7% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal58.0 (43–71)Conservative28.7 (16–42) |
| WhitbyOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 38 (24–53) | Liberal 52.7% | LibLiberalLeans | 80% | Leans | Liberal51.6 (37–66)Conservative38.4 (24–53) |
| WillowdaleOntario · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 39 (24–53) | Liberal 53.4% | LibLiberalLikely | 81% | Likely | Liberal52.7 (38–67)Conservative38.7 (24–53) |
| Windsor WestOntario · 2025: Con 39%NDP 36 (19–50) · Con 34 (20–48) | Conservative 39% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | NDP35.5 (19–50)Conservative33.5 (20–48)Liberal26.0 (14–40) |
| Windsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Con 45.8%Lib 43 (28–57) · Con 42 (28–57) | Conservative 45.8% | LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Liberal42.5 (28–57)Conservative42.2 (28–57) |
| Winnipeg CentreManitoba · 2025: NDP 39.4%NDP 44 (27–58) · Lib 34 (20–49) | NDP 39.4% | NDPNDPLeans | 73% | Leans | NDP43.8 (27–58)Liberal34.0 (20–49)Conservative15.4 (5–28) |
| Winnipeg NorthManitoba · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 27 (14–41) | Liberal 57.9% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal58.4 (43–72)Conservative27.3 (14–41) |
| Winnipeg SouthManitoba · 2025: Lib 59%Lib 60 (44–73) · Con 28 (15–42) | Liberal 59% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal59.7 (44–73)Conservative28.0 (15–42) |
| Winnipeg South CentreManitoba · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 64 (49–77) · Con 21 (9–35) | Liberal 63.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal63.8 (49–77)Conservative21.2 (9–35) |
| Winnipeg WestManitoba · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 32 (19–47) | Liberal 54.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal57.2 (42–71)Conservative31.9 (19–47) |
| YellowheadAlberta · 2025: Con 69.1%Con 60 (45–74) · Lib 28 (15–41) | Conservative 69.1% | ConConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Conservative59.6 (45–74)Liberal27.6 (15–41) |
| York CentreOntario · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 51 (37–66) · Lib 40 (26–55) | Conservative 54.8% | ConConservativeLeans | 76% | Leans | Conservative51.3 (37–66)Liberal40.3 (26–55) |
| York South—Weston—EtobicokeOntario · 2025: Lib 55.3%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 34 (21–48) | Liberal 55.3% | LibLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal53.9 (39–68)Conservative34.2 (21–48) |
| Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.5%Con 69 (55–83) · Lib 15 (4–28) | Conservative 77.5% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative69.4 (55–83)Liberal15.3 (4–28) |
| York—DurhamOntario · 2025: Con 55.6%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 37 (23–51) | Conservative 55.6% | ConConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Conservative51.9 (37–66)Liberal37.0 (23–51) |
| YukonYukon · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 51 (32–69) · Con 33 (15–51) | Liberal 53.1% | LibLiberalLikely | 81% | Likely | Liberal50.8 (32–69)Conservative33.4 (15–51) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 43.6 | 41.5–45.8 | −0.7 |
| Conservative | 36.2 | 33.0–39.3 | +0.6 |
| NDP | 9.3 | 7.1–11.5 | 0 |
| Bloc Québécois | 6.1 | 5.3–6.9 | +0.3 |
| Green | 3.0 | 2.3–3.7 | +0.2 |
| People’s Party | 1.8 | 0.8–2.8 | −0.4 |
| Others | 1.0 | 0 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 28 Jul 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 25 Jul 2025, in points.
Polls included (33)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | Lib | Con | NDP | BQ | Grn | PPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul | Innovative ResearchNew | 3,732 | – | 41 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 4 | – |
| 25 Jul | Liaison Strategies | – | – | 43 | 36 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 25 Jul | Nanos Research | 1,027 | ±3.1 | 43.6 | 33.5 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 18 Jul | Nanos Research | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 44.3 | 34 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 2 |
| 15 Jul | Abacus Data | 1,915 | ±2.2 | 43 | 40 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 Jul | Ekos | 1,817 | ±2.3 | 43.2 | 30.5 | 13 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| 11 Jul | Nanos Research | 1,047 | ±3.0 | 44.5 | 33.8 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| 6 Jul | Léger | 1,546 | ±2.5 | 48 | 35 | 7 | 6 | 3 | – |
| 4 Jul | Liaison Strategies | – | – | 46 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 Jul | Nanos Research | 1,056 | ±3.0 | 45.1 | 32.6 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
23 earlier polls
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | Lib | Con | NDP | BQ | Grn | PPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul | Abacus Data | 1,500 | ±2.5 | 41 | 40 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 Jul | Research Co. | 1,001 | ±3.1 | 47 | 37 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 Jun | Innovative Research | 4,029 | – | 43 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – |
| 27 Jun | Nanos Research | 1,076 | ±3.0 | 44.5 | 31.4 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 26 Jun | Mainstreet Research | 1,168 | ±2.9 | 47 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 Jun | Liaison Strategies | – | – | 42 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 Jun | Nanos Research | 1,090 | ±3.0 | 45.2 | 30.8 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 19 Jun | Abacus Data | 1,500 | ±1.9 | 42 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 Jun | Nanos Research | 1,080 | ±3.0 | 44.2 | 32.2 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 6 Jun | Liaison Strategies | – | – | 42 | 39 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 Jun | Nanos Research | 1,079 | ±3.0 | 42.6 | 32.8 | 12 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 |
| 5 Jun | Abacus Data | 2,585 | ±1.9 | 42 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 Jun | Ekos | 1,529 | ±2.5 | 43.9 | 32 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 |
| 30 May | Nanos Research | 1,079 | ±3.0 | 41.7 | 36.4 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| 30 May | Spark Insights | 3,450 | – | 41 | 40 | 8 | 7 | – | – |
| 23 May | Liaison Strategies | – | – | 44 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 23 May | Nanos Research | 1,127 | ±3.0 | 40.4 | 38.6 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 22 May | Innovative Research | 2,517 | – | 42 | 39 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – |
| 21 May | Abacus Data | 2,273 | ±2.1 | 41 | 40 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 May | Nanos Research | 1,127 | ±2.9 | 41.4 | 39.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 |
| 9 May | Liaison Strategies | – | – | 45 | 40 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 May | Nanos Research | 1,259 | ±2.8 | 41.5 | 40.5 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 May | Nanos Research | 1,297 | ±2.7 | 41.8 | 39.2 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
National polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s federal polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2025 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 172 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 199 projections, to 2 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | LibLiberal | ConConservative | NDPNDP | BQBloc Québécois | GrnGreen | LibLiberal maj. | ConConservative maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 226 | 82 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 92% | 2% | 6% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Nanos Research | 225 | 83 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 92% | 2% | 7% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 223 | 85 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 91% | 2% | 7% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Nanos Research | 222 | 86 | 12 | 20 | 2 | 91% | 2% | 7% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | Abacus Data | 220 | 88 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 90% | 2% | 8% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 221 | 87 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 90% | 2% | 8% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Nanos Research | 221 | 88 | 12 | 20 | 2 | 90% | 2% | 8% |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 219 | 88 | 13 | 21 | 2 | 90% | 2% | 8% |
192 earlier projections
How the projection works
The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 343 ridings. The national polling average sets each party’s change since that election. A rule fitted on the federal elections since 2006 turns it into a change for each of seven regions, and polls of a single province or region, from the pollsters’ own releases, correct that rule where they exist. Each riding moves with its region, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2025 share, and the ridings are adjusted so that each region reproduces its estimate. The Bloc Québécois runs only in Quebec. A first-term member running again gains a few points and an open seat loses a few; in Quebec, ridings with more French speakers move further in the direction of the province-wide change; members who crossed the floor take a small part of their 2025 vote to their new party.
Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a national polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from the six federal elections from 2008 to 2025. Tested on each of those elections with only the polls published before it, and with every size fitted on the other five, the projected leader won 82.9% of 1,973 ridings, and 90% ranges contained 93.6% of riding vote shares. Local campaigns, candidates other than incumbents and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.