A seat projection estimates how many seats each party would win from the polls. Each riding’s result at the last election is moved by the change in the polls since then, and the election is simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to give each party’s chance in every riding, its range of seats and its chance of a majority. Each projection is updated when a new poll is published.
No election has been called: the seats each party would win if one were held at the time of the polls.
Latest projection: polls to 24 October 2026, 246 polls
Chance of a majority (172 of 343 seats): Liberal 93%, Conservative 1%; none 5%
Bars: median seats; lines: the middle 90% of simulations.
The full projection
General election of 24 October 2026.
Final projection: polls to 23 October 2026, 64 polls
Chance of a majority (47 of 93 seats): Conservative 76%, NDP 19%; none 4%
Bars: median seats; lines: the middle 90% of simulations.
The full projection
No election has been called: the seats each party would win if one were held at the time of the polls.
Latest projection: polls to 19 October 2026, 51 polls
Chance of a majority (63 of 124 seats): Progressive Conservative 58%, Liberal 2%; none 40%
Bars: median seats; lines: the middle 90% of simulations.
The full projection
No election has been called: the seats each party would win on the 2023 ridings if one were held at the time of the polls.
Latest projection: polls to 16 October 2026, 46 polls
Chance of a majority (44 of 87 seats): NDP 55%, United Conservative 43%; none 2%
Bars: median seats; lines: the middle 90% of simulations.
The full projection
General election of 5 October 2026: computed afterwards from the polls published before it, and compared with the result.
Latest projection: polls to 4 October 2026, 91 polls
Chance of a majority (64 of 127 seats): Parti Québécois 18%; none 81%
Bars: median seats; lines: the middle 90% of simulations.
The full projection
How the projections are made, with the tests on past elections, and how the polling averages are calculated.