A seat projection estimates how many seats each party would win from the polls. Each riding’s result at the last election is moved by the change in the polls since then, and the election is simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to give each party’s chance in every riding, its range of seats and its chance of a majority. Each projection is updated when a new poll is published.
No election has been called: the seats each party would win if one were held at the time of the polls.
Latest projection: polls to 3 October 2026, 236 polls
Chance of a majority (172 of 343 seats): Liberal 92%, Conservative 2%; none 6%
Bars: median seats; lines: the middle 90% of simulations.
The full projection
General election of 24 October 2026.
Latest projection: polls to 8 October 2026, 48 polls
Chance of a majority (47 of 93 seats): Conservative 68%, NDP 26%; none 6%
Bars: median seats; lines: the middle 90% of simulations.
The full projection
How the projections are made, with the tests on past elections, and how the polling averages are calculated.