Federal seat projection, 6 February 2026

As of 6 February 2026, from 121 polls

No federal election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the national polling average since that election, adjusted region by region with provincial and regional polls, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 3 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 6 February 2026.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the Liberals win a median of 187 seats (90% range 120–251) and a majority in 67%; the Conservatives 119 seats (90% range 61–181) and a majority in 7%; the Bloc Québécois 24 seats (90% range 9–38); the NDP 11 seats (90% range 3–19); the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–3). No party wins a majority in 26%.

Liberal majority
67%
Most seats in 83% of simulations
Conservative majority
7%
Most seats in 17% of simulations
No majority
26%
39 ridings with no party above 60%

172 for a majority

Liberal

187 seats (120–251) · majority 67%

Conservative

119 seats (61–181) · majority 7%

NDP

11 seats (3–19)

Bloc Québécois

24 seats (9–38)

Green

2 seats (0–3)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 172 of 343 seats. People’s Party and Other win no seat in the median simulation; People’s Party wins at least one in <1%, Other wins at least one in <1%.

Seat distributions

172 for a majority

Liberal

Median 187, 90%: 120–251

Majority in 67%

Most frequent: 195 (1.3%)

Conservative

Median 119, 90%: 61–181

Majority in 7%

Most frequent: 107 (1.4%)

NDP

Median 11, 90%: 3–19

Most frequent: 11 (8.6%)

Bloc Québécois

Median 24, 90%: 9–38

Most frequent: 26 (6.2%)

Green

Median 2, 90%: 0–3

Most frequent: 2 (51.3%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Liberal	187	120 to 251	195 seats, 1.3% of simulations	67%
Conservative	119	61 to 181	107 seats, 1.4% of simulations	7%
NDP	11	3 to 19	11 seats, 8.6% of simulations	0%
Bloc Québécois	24	9 to 38	26 seats, 6.2% of simulations	0%
Green	2	0 to 3	2 seats, 51.3% of simulations	0%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 172 of 343 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Nanos Research, fieldwork to 6 Feb 2026, 1,049 respondentsLiberal 39.1 · Conservative 35.2 · NDP 12.6 · Bloc Québécois 8.8 · Green 2.9 · People’s Party 0.9

Change since 5 Feb 2026

Median seats: Liberal 0, Conservative 0, NDP 0, Bloc Québécois 0, Green 0.
Chance of a majority, in points: Liberal 0, Conservative 0; no majority 0.
Projected leader changed in 1 riding: Terrebonne (Liberal to Bloc Québécois).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn
Solid 95%+	68	29	1	0	0
Likely 80–95%	56	29	3	15	1
Leans 60–80%	46	44	4	7	1
Toss-up <60%	39

Canada

Ottawa–Gatineau

Vancouver

Greater Toronto

Montreal

Calgary

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Seats changing hands

Won in 2025Projected

LibLiberal169

ConConservative144

NDPNDP7

BQBloc Québécois22

GrnGreen1

LibLiberal170

ConConservative102

NDPNDP8

BQBloc Québécois22

GrnGreen2

Toss-upToss-up39

Ridings by party: won in 2025, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2025	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
LibLiberal	169	170	7	–	6
ConConservative	144	102	–	10	32
NDPNDP	7	8	2	–	1
BQBloc Québécois	22	22	–	–	–
GrnGreen	1	2	1	–	–
Toss-up		39

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2025 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2025 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Liberal172nd-best riding: Beauport—Limoilou, 60% · chance of a majority 67%

Conservative172nd-best riding: Acadie—Annapolis, 22% · chance of a majority 7%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 172 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 172nd-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

By region

2025 vote projected vote or median seats 90% range of seats 2025 seats

British Columbia43 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		41.1%, 2025: 41.8%		22+2 seats, 90% range 10 to 33; 2025: 20
Con		36.7%, 2025: 41.2%		15−4 seats, 90% range 5 to 27; 2025: 19
NDP		15.5%, 2025: 13.0%		5+2 seats, 90% range 1 to 8; 2025: 3
Grn		5.4%, 2025: 3.0%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
PPC		1.2%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Alberta37 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		53.3%, 2025: 63.6%		28−6 seats, 90% range 19 to 34; 2025: 34
Lib		30.1%, 2025: 27.9%		7+5 seats, 90% range 2 to 16; 2025: 2
NDP		11.7%, 2025: 6.3%		2+1 seats, 90% range 1 to 3; 2025: 1
Grn		1.6%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.6%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Manitoba and Saskatchewan28 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		46.7%, 2025: 54.9%		16−4 seats, 90% range 12 to 20; 2025: 20
Lib		35.4%, 2025: 34.1%		10+3 seats, 90% range 6 to 14; 2025: 7
NDP		13.3%, 2025: 9.4%		2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1
Grn		2.1%, 2025: 0.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.2%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Ontario122 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		47.2%, 2025: 49.2%		75+5 seats, 90% range 41 to 106; 2025: 70
Con		39.0%, 2025: 43.8%		44−8 seats, 90% range 14 to 78; 2025: 52
NDP		8.5%, 2025: 4.8%		2+2 seats, 90% range 0 to 4; 2025: 0
Grn		2.7%, 2025: 1.1%		1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 0
PPC		1.4%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Quebec78 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		40.9%, 2025: 42.6%		44 seats, 90% range 30 to 61; 2025: 44
BQ		29.0%, 2025: 27.7%		24+2 seats, 90% range 9 to 38; 2025: 22
Con		19.7%, 2025: 23.3%		8−3 seats, 90% range 3 to 14; 2025: 11
NDP		5.7%, 2025: 4.5%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
Grn		2.4%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.4%, 2025: 0.8%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Atlantic32 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		54.5%, 2025: 55.5%		26+2 seats, 90% range 18 to 31; 2025: 24
Con		33.4%, 2025: 38.0%		6−2 seats, 90% range 1 to 14; 2025: 8
NDP		7.7%, 2025: 4.3%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		2.8%, 2025: 1.1%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.1%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Territories3 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		49.3%, 2025: 50.5%		2 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 2
NDP		17.4%, 2025: 13.4%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 1
Con		29.6%, 2025: 34.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 0
Grn		3.1%, 2025: 1.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Vote: each party’s share of the valid vote in 2025 and the projection’s estimate for the region now, on one scale (0–70%) for every region. Seats: the median and the middle 90% of the simulations, on each region’s own scale, and the change in the median from the 2025 result. Regions as in the model: Manitoba and Saskatchewan together; the three territories together.

All 343 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.

All 343 ridings: 2025 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abbotsford—South LangleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 43.1%Con 50 (35–63) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 43.1%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative49.6 (35–63)Liberal38.5 (25–53)
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouQuebec · 2025: Lib 41.2%Lib 41 (27–55) · BQ 34 (20–48)	Liberal 41.2%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal40.8 (27–55)Bloc Québécois33.8 (20–48)Conservative18.0 (7–30)
Abitibi—TémiscamingueQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.4%BQ 51 (35–67) · Lib 24 (10–39)	Bloc Québécois 49.4%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois50.8 (35–67)Liberal24.2 (10–39)Conservative15.4 (4–28)
Acadie—AnnapolisNova Scotia · 2025: Con 47.7%Lib 51 (35–72) · Con 37 (16–52)	Conservative 47.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal50.7 (35–72)Conservative36.8 (16–52)
Acadie—BathurstNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 67.5%Lib 66 (51–78) · Con 22 (10–35)	Liberal 67.5%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal65.7 (51–78)Conservative22.0 (10–35)
Ahuntsic-CartiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 61%Lib 58 (44–70) · BQ 18 (8–29)	Liberal 61%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.7 (44–70)Bloc Québécois17.8 (8–29)Conservative12.5 (4–22)
Airdrie—CochraneAlberta · 2025: Con 71.2%Con 60 (45–74) · Lib 26 (13–39)	Conservative 71.2%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative60.0 (45–74)Liberal25.9 (13–39)
AjaxOntario · 2025: Lib 56.3%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 33 (20–47)	Liberal 56.3%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal56.0 (41–70)Conservative32.9 (20–47)
Alfred-PellanQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 52 (38–65) · BQ 21 (11–33)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal51.7 (38–65)Bloc Québécois21.4 (11–33)Conservative18.1 (8–29)
Algonquin—Renfrew—PembrokeOntario · 2025: Con 55.7%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 55.7%	ConConservativeLikely	83%	Likely	Conservative50.6 (36–65)Liberal35.9 (22–50)
Argenteuil—La Petite-NationQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.5%Lib 45 (30–59) · BQ 24 (12–38)	Liberal 47.5%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal44.6 (30–59)Bloc Québécois24.3 (12–38)Conservative20.9 (9–33)
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillOntario · 2025: Con 54.7%Con 52 (38–66) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 54.7%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative52.0 (38–66)Liberal39.4 (25–54)
AvalonNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal58.6 (44–73)Conservative30.1 (17–44)
Barrie South—InnisfilOntario · 2025: Con 57.8%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 57.8%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative52.8 (38–67)Liberal36.4 (22–51)
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 42 (27–57)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative46.4 (31–61)Liberal42.2 (27–57)
Battle River—CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 82.8%Con 72 (57–85) · Lib 13 (3–26)	Conservative 82.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.2 (57–85)Liberal13.2 (3–26)
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow LakeSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 75.8%Con 67 (52–80) · Lib 20 (8–33)	Conservative 75.8%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative67.0 (52–80)Liberal20.0 (8–33)
Bay of QuinteOntario · 2025: Lib 50.4%Lib 50 (36–64) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 50.4%	LibLiberalLeans	79%	Leans	Liberal50.0 (36–64)Conservative37.7 (24–52)
Beaches—East YorkOntario · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 65 (50–79) · Con 18 (6–31)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.9 (50–79)Conservative18.4 (6–31)NDP10.7 (2–22)
BeauceQuebec · 2025: Con 59.7%Con 56 (40–71) · Lib 17 (5–31)	Conservative 59.7%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative56.4 (40–71)Liberal16.6 (5–31)Bloc Québécois14.3 (4–28)
Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—HuntingdonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 46 (31–60) · Lib 29 (16–43)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	86%	Likely	Bloc Québécois45.7 (31–60)Liberal29.3 (16–43)Conservative15.5 (5–27)
Beauport—LimoilouQuebec · 2025: Lib 35.6%Lib 36 (21–51) · BQ 29 (15–44)	Liberal 35.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Liberal35.7 (21–51)Bloc Québécois29.1 (15–44)Conservative24.5 (11–38)
BeauséjourNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal58.3 (44–72)Conservative28.8 (16–43)
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—LévisQuebec · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 44 (28–59) · Lib 26 (12–42)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative43.8 (28–59)Liberal26.3 (12–42)Bloc Québécois20.3 (8–35)
Beloeil—ChamblyQuebec · 2025: BQ 48.3%BQ 50 (35–64) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Bloc Québécois 48.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	89%	Likely	Bloc Québécois49.8 (35–64)Liberal30.6 (17–45)Conservative10.1 (1–20)
Berthier—MaskinongéQuebec · 2025: BQ 35%BQ 36 (21–51) · NDP 25 (7–39)	Bloc Québécois 35%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	71%	Leans	Bloc Québécois35.5 (21–51)NDP24.6 (7–39)Liberal21.0 (9–35)Conservative13.0 (3–24)
BourassaQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 58 (44–70) · BQ 17 (8–28)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.7 (44–70)Bloc Québécois17.4 (8–28)Conservative13.3 (5–23)
Bow RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 78.9%Con 69 (55–83) · Lib 18 (7–31)	Conservative 78.9%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative69.3 (55–83)Liberal18.0 (7–31)
Bowmanville—Oshawa NorthOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 44 (30–58)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Conservative45.0 (30–59)Liberal43.7 (30–58)
Brampton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 49 (34–62) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal48.6 (34–62)Conservative40.0 (26–54)
Brampton EastOntario · 2025: Lib 48.6%Lib 47 (33–62) · Con 40 (26–55)	Liberal 48.6%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal47.2 (33–62)Conservative40.3 (26–55)
Brampton North—CaledonOntario · 2025: Lib 49%Lib 47 (33–62) · Con 43 (28–57)	Liberal 49%	LibLiberalLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal47.4 (33–62)Conservative42.8 (28–57)
Brampton SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 43 (29–58)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal48.1 (33–63)Conservative43.3 (29–58)
Brampton WestOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 44 (30–58)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative47.2 (33–61)Liberal43.9 (30–58)
Brampton—Chinguacousy ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 47 (32–62) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal47.0 (32–62)Conservative39.9 (26–54)
Brandon—SourisManitoba · 2025: Con 62.2%Con 54 (40–68) · Lib 23 (11–36)	Conservative 62.2%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative54.3 (40–68)Liberal22.9 (11–36)NDP18.7 (8–31)
Brantford—Brant South—Six NationsOntario · 2025: Con 52.4%Con 47 (32–62) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 52.4%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative47.0 (32–62)Liberal38.9 (25–53)
Brome—MissisquoiQuebec · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 47 (32–62) · BQ 28 (15–43)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal47.4 (32–62)Bloc Québécois28.3 (15–43)Conservative14.8 (4–27)
Brossard—Saint-LambertQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.2%Lib 60 (46–72) · Con 16 (7–26)	Liberal 62.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.7 (46–72)Conservative16.3 (7–26)Bloc Québécois14.3 (6–24)
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative47.3 (33–61)Liberal37.9 (24–52)
BurlingtonOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (39–68)Conservative35.9 (22–50)
Burlington North—Milton WestOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 51 (36–66) · Con 40 (25–54)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal51.0 (36–66)Conservative39.7 (25–54)
Burnaby CentralBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 42.2%Lib 43 (29–57) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 42.2%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal43.0 (29–57)Conservative32.2 (19–46)NDP20.8 (9–33)
Burnaby North—SeymourBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.1%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 30 (17–43)	Liberal 59.1%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal58.0 (43–72)Conservative29.7 (17–43)
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—AlnôbakQuebec · 2025: BQ 47%BQ 49 (33–64) · Lib 24 (11–39)	Bloc Québécois 47%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.7 (33–64)Liberal24.4 (11–39)Conservative17.3 (6–30)
Calgary CentreAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 40 (26–54)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.2 (33–62)Conservative39.8 (26–54)
Calgary ConfederationAlberta · 2025: Lib 48.1%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 34 (21–49)	Liberal 48.1%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal52.1 (37–66)Conservative34.3 (21–49)
Calgary CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 40 (25–54)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLeans	71%	Leans	Conservative48.3 (33–63)Liberal39.9 (25–54)
Calgary EastAlberta · 2025: Con 60.5%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 60.5%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative49.7 (35–64)Liberal34.0 (20–48)
Calgary HeritageAlberta · 2025: Con 61.4%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 61.4%	ConConservativeLikely	81%	Likely	Conservative50.8 (36–65)Liberal37.3 (23–51)
Calgary McKnightAlberta · 2025: Con 49.1%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 41 (27–55)	Conservative 49.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal46.2 (32–60)Conservative41.4 (27–55)
Calgary MidnaporeAlberta · 2025: Con 65.5%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 32 (19–47)	Conservative 65.5%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative54.6 (40–69)Liberal32.4 (19–47)
Calgary Nose HillAlberta · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 49 (33–63) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative48.7 (33–63)Liberal38.5 (24–53)
Calgary ShepardAlberta · 2025: Con 68%Con 57 (42–71) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Conservative 68%	ConConservativeLikely	95%	Likely	Conservative57.1 (42–71)Liberal30.7 (17–45)
Calgary Signal HillAlberta · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	82%	Likely	Conservative51.6 (37–66)Liberal37.3 (23–51)
Calgary SkyviewAlberta · 2025: Con 55.4%Con 49 (34–64) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 55.4%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative49.2 (34–64)Liberal39.9 (26–54)
CambridgeOntario · 2025: Con 48.6%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 48.6%	ConConservativeToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Conservative45.6 (31–60)Liberal42.0 (28–56)
Cape Breton—Canso—AntigonishNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.6%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 51.6%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal50.5 (36–65)Conservative38.9 (25–53)
Cape SpearNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 68.3%Lib 67 (53–80) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 68.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal67.1 (53–80)Conservative20.6 (9–34)
CardiganPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57%Lib 56 (41–71) · Con 34 (19–49)	Liberal 57%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal56.2 (41–71)Conservative33.5 (19–49)
Cariboo—Prince GeorgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 60.3%Con 55 (41–69) · Lib 30 (17–43)	Conservative 60.3%	ConConservativeLikely	95%	Likely	Conservative55.2 (41–69)Liberal29.7 (17–43)
CarletonOntario · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal51.7 (37–66)Conservative39.7 (26–54)
Carlton Trail—Eagle CreekSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.4%Con 69 (53–81) · Lib 18 (7–31)	Conservative 77.4%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative68.5 (53–81)Liberal18.1 (7–31)
Central NewfoundlandNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 54.1%Con 49 (34–64) · Lib 43 (28–58)	Conservative 54.1%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative49.2 (34–64)Liberal42.8 (28–58)
Central NovaNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	79%	Leans	Liberal50.7 (36–65)Conservative38.2 (24–52)
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesQuebec · 2025: Con 42.4%Con 38 (22–53) · Lib 33 (18–48)	Conservative 42.4%	ConConservativeLeans	60%	Leans	Conservative37.6 (22–53)Liberal32.5 (18–48)Bloc Québécois20.8 (8–35)
CharlottetownPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 64.8%Lib 62 (47–77) · Con 25 (12–39)	Liberal 64.8%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.2 (47–77)Conservative24.8 (12–39)
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	87%	Likely	Conservative51.6 (37–66)Liberal34.0 (20–48)
Chicoutimi—Le FjordQuebec · 2025: Con 34.1%Lib 51 (33–68) · BQ 31 (15–47)	Conservative 34.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal50.6 (33–68)Bloc Québécois31.1 (15–47)Conservative11.0 (1–24)
Chilliwack—HopeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 49 (35–63) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative49.4 (35–63)Liberal34.5 (21–49)
Churchill—Keewatinook AskiManitoba · 2025: Lib 45.5%Lib 46 (31–61) · NDP 33 (19–47)	Liberal 45.5%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal46.0 (31–61)NDP33.2 (19–47)Conservative15.7 (6–28)
Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.2%Lib 45 (31–58) · BQ 29 (17–42)	Liberal 45.2%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal44.7 (31–58)Bloc Québécois29.4 (17–42)Conservative17.4 (7–28)
Cloverdale—Langley CityBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.8%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 43 (29–57)	Conservative 47.8%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Liberal45.7 (31–60)Conservative43.1 (29–57)
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 27 (14–42)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative45.0 (30–60)Liberal27.3 (14–42)NDP21.6 (10–35)
Compton—StansteadQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 45 (30–60) · BQ 26 (13–41)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal44.9 (30–60)Bloc Québécois26.4 (13–41)Conservative17.3 (6–30)
Coquitlam—Port CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 38 (25–52)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal46.3 (32–60)Conservative38.4 (25–52)
Courtenay—AlberniBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 39.6%NDP 44 (28–59) · Con 29 (15–44)	NDP 39.6%	NDPNDPLikely	81%	Likely	NDP44.3 (28–59)Conservative28.9 (15–44)Liberal20.5 (9–35)
Cowichan—Malahat—LangfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 37.2%NDP 35 (20–50) · Con 34 (20–49)	Conservative 37.2%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	48%	Toss-up	NDP35.2 (20–50)Conservative34.0 (20–49)Liberal24.8 (12–39)
Cumberland—ColchesterNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 49 (35–63) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal48.9 (35–63)Conservative39.0 (25–53)
Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—NitassinanQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.7%BQ 46 (30–61) · Lib 25 (11–39)	Bloc Québécois 43.7%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	88%	Likely	Bloc Québécois45.5 (30–61)Liberal25.0 (11–39)Conservative21.1 (9–34)
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—TémiscouataQuebec · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 41 (25–56) · Lib 28 (14–43)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative40.6 (25–56)Liberal28.2 (14–43)Bloc Québécois21.7 (9–36)
Dartmouth—Cole HarbourNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 64 (50–78) · Con 19 (7–31)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.3 (50–78)Conservative18.6 (7–31)NDP11.3 (3–21)
DavenportOntario · 2025: Lib 57.8%Lib 52 (36–67) · NDP 24 (11–38)	Liberal 57.8%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal51.5 (36–67)NDP24.2 (11–38)Conservative18.0 (7–31)
DeltaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 51.8%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 37 (24–51)	Liberal 51.8%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.2 (39–67)Conservative37.0 (24–51)
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill RiverSaskatchewan · 2025: Lib 65.1%Lib 66 (51–79) · Con 18 (7–30)	Liberal 65.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal65.8 (51–79)Conservative17.7 (7–30)NDP12.5 (3–23)
Don Valley NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 53.2%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.3 (39–67)Conservative36.1 (22–50)
Don Valley WestOntario · 2025: Lib 62.6%Lib 60 (46–74) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 62.6%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.3 (46–74)Conservative29.1 (16–43)
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalleQuebec · 2025: Lib 59.4%Lib 57 (44–69) · Con 18 (9–28)	Liberal 59.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.0 (44–69)Conservative18.3 (9–28)Bloc Québécois13.4 (5–23)
DrummondQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.8%BQ 44 (29–60) · Lib 25 (12–40)	Bloc Québécois 42.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	86%	Likely	Bloc Québécois44.4 (29–60)Liberal25.4 (12–40)Conservative18.3 (6–32)
Dufferin—CaledonOntario · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative55.1 (40–69)Liberal33.4 (20–47)
Edmonton CentreAlberta · 2025: Lib 44.3%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 44.3%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal46.0 (31–60)Conservative25.7 (13–39)NDP23.1 (10–36)
Edmonton GatewayAlberta · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 43 (28–58) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Conservative42.9 (28–58)Liberal41.5 (27–56)NDP10.4 (2–20)
Edmonton GriesbachAlberta · 2025: Con 45.5%NDP 45 (27–59) · Con 34 (20–49)	Conservative 45.5%	NDPNDPgain from ConLeans	75%	Leans	NDP44.9 (27–59)Conservative33.8 (20–49)Liberal16.4 (6–29)
Edmonton ManningAlberta · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 41 (27–56) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative41.2 (27–56)Liberal36.3 (22–51)NDP16.9 (6–28)
Edmonton NorthwestAlberta · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative44.6 (30–59)Liberal38.2 (24–52)NDP11.9 (3–22)
Edmonton RiverbendAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 53 (36–73) · Con 34 (13–49)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal52.9 (36–73)Conservative33.5 (13–49)
Edmonton SoutheastAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 52.9%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative44.5 (30–59)Liberal39.2 (25–53)NDP10.1 (2–20)
Edmonton StrathconaAlberta · 2025: NDP 47%NDP 60 (41–73) · Con 20 (9–34)	NDP 47%	NDPNDPSolid	97%	Solid	NDP59.5 (41–73)Conservative20.1 (9–34)Liberal15.8 (6–28)
Edmonton WestAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Lib 43 (28–57) · Con 42 (27–56)	Conservative 52.9%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal42.5 (28–57)Conservative41.7 (27–56)NDP10.5 (2–20)
Eglinton—LawrenceOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal49.7 (35–64)Conservative41.2 (27–55)
EgmontPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 50 (35–65) · Con 38 (23–53)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal49.9 (35–65)Conservative38.4 (23–53)
Elgin—St. Thomas—London SouthOntario · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 47 (33–62) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative47.3 (33–62)Liberal39.3 (25–54)
Elmwood—TransconaManitoba · 2025: Con 41.6%NDP 40 (25–54) · Con 34 (21–49)	Conservative 41.6%	NDPNDPgain from ConLeans	63%	Leans	NDP39.8 (25–54)Conservative34.4 (21–49)Liberal20.7 (9–34)
Esquimalt—Saanich—SookeBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 23 (10–37)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal48.9 (34–64)Conservative22.9 (10–37)NDP20.9 (9–34)
EssexOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative52.0 (37–66)Liberal34.9 (21–49)
Etobicoke CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.6%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 40 (25–54)	Liberal 53.6%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal51.7 (37–66)Conservative39.5 (25–54)
Etobicoke NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 52.6%Lib 53 (38–66) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 52.6%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal52.6 (38–66)Conservative34.8 (21–49)
Etobicoke—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 57.4%Lib 56 (40–70) · Con 34 (21–49)	Liberal 57.4%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal55.5 (40–70)Conservative34.4 (21–49)
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant NorthOntario · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 48 (33–61) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative47.5 (33–61)Liberal41.3 (27–56)
Fleetwood—Port KellsBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 49 (35–63) · Con 38 (24–51)	Liberal 47.9%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal49.2 (35–63)Conservative37.7 (24–51)
FoothillsAlberta · 2025: Con 76.3%Con 66 (50–79) · Lib 21 (9–34)	Conservative 76.3%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.6 (50–79)Liberal21.2 (9–34)
Fort McMurray—Cold LakeAlberta · 2025: Con 80.2%Con 70 (55–82) · Lib 17 (6–29)	Conservative 80.2%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative69.9 (55–82)Liberal16.5 (6–29)
Fredericton—OromoctoNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 61.3%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 61.3%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.6 (46–74)Conservative26.5 (14–40)
Fundy RoyalNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative47.9 (33–62)Liberal38.7 (25–53)
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—ListugujQuebec · 2025: BQ 45.8%BQ 50 (33–65) · Lib 33 (18–49)	Bloc Québécois 45.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	83%	Likely	Bloc Québécois49.7 (33–65)Liberal33.2 (18–49)
GatineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.5%Lib 58 (42–71) · BQ 18 (7–30)	Liberal 60.5%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.5 (42–71)Bloc Québécois17.6 (7–30)Conservative15.8 (6–27)
Grande PrairieAlberta · 2025: Con 81.7%Con 71 (57–83) · Lib 14 (4–25)	Conservative 81.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative71.1 (57–83)Liberal13.5 (4–25)
GuelphOntario · 2025: Lib 54.7%Lib 51 (35–66) · Con 24 (11–37)	Liberal 54.7%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal50.7 (35–66)Conservative23.5 (11–37)Green16.7 (1–31)
Haldimand—NorfolkOntario · 2025: Con 57.6%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 57.6%	ConConservativeLikely	87%	Likely	Conservative52.1 (37–66)Liberal34.5 (21–49)
Haliburton—Kawartha LakesOntario · 2025: Con 56.6%Con 51 (36–66) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 56.6%	ConConservativeLikely	82%	Likely	Conservative51.3 (36–66)Liberal37.1 (23–52)
HalifaxNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 59 (44–74) · NDP 23 (9–36)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.3 (44–74)NDP22.5 (9–36)Conservative13.9 (4–26)
Halifax WestNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 65.6%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 23 (11–36)	Liberal 65.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.8 (48–76)Conservative23.0 (11–36)
Hamilton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 37.6%NDP 37 (21–52) · Lib 35 (21–50)	Liberal 37.6%	NDPNDPgain from LibToss-up	54%	Toss-up	NDP37.1 (21–52)Liberal34.7 (21–50)Conservative22.0 (10–36)
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 43 (29–57)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Conservative46.2 (32–60)Liberal42.6 (29–57)
Hamilton MountainOntario · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 42 (28–57) · Con 35 (22–50)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal42.0 (28–57)Conservative35.4 (22–50)NDP17.9 (7–30)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasOntario · 2025: Lib 56.1%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 56.1%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal55.1 (40–69)Conservative30.3 (17–44)
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—TyendinagaOntario · 2025: Con 54.3%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 54.3%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative48.8 (34–63)Liberal38.3 (24–53)
Hochelaga—Rosemont-EstQuebec · 2025: Lib 46.1%Lib 45 (31–58) · BQ 27 (15–40)	Liberal 46.1%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal44.7 (31–58)Bloc Québécois26.8 (15–40)NDP14.5 (3–25)
Honoré-MercierQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.2%Lib 59 (47–71) · Con 18 (8–28)	Liberal 60.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.4 (47–71)Conservative18.1 (8–28)Bloc Québécois13.2 (5–23)
Hull—AylmerQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 59 (45–72) · Con 14 (5–24)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.1 (45–72)Conservative14.2 (5–24)Bloc Québécois13.1 (4–23)
Humber River—Black CreekOntario · 2025: Lib 55.6%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 55.6%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal52.7 (38–67)Conservative31.0 (18–45)NDP10.7 (2–21)
Huron—BruceOntario · 2025: Con 53.2%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 53.2%	ConConservativeLeans	71%	Leans	Conservative47.8 (33–62)Liberal39.6 (26–54)
Joliette—ManawanQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.3%BQ 51 (35–65) · Lib 28 (15–42)	Bloc Québécois 49.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois51.0 (35–65)Liberal28.1 (15–42)Conservative11.7 (2–22)
JonquièreQuebec · 2025: BQ 40%BQ 42 (26–58) · Con 25 (12–40)	Bloc Québécois 40%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	79%	Leans	Bloc Québécois41.9 (26–58)Conservative25.4 (12–40)Liberal23.4 (10–38)
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 47 (32–62) · Lib 38 (23–53)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLeans	71%	Leans	Conservative46.9 (32–62)Liberal38.0 (23–53)
Kamloops—Thompson—NicolaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.5%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 39 (25–55)	Conservative 51.5%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative46.4 (31–61)Liberal39.2 (25–55)
KanataOntario · 2025: Lib 60.8%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 60.8%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal58.2 (43–72)Conservative31.1 (18–45)
Kapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukOntario · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative45.2 (31–59)Liberal34.6 (21–49)NDP15.4 (5–27)
KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 50 (35–65) · Con 40 (25–55)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal50.2 (35–65)Conservative40.2 (25–55)
Kenora—KiiwetinoongOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 42 (27–56) · Lib 32 (19–46)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative41.7 (27–56)Liberal31.9 (19–46)NDP20.5 (8–33)
Kildonan—St. PaulManitoba · 2025: Con 47.5%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 39 (25–54)	Conservative 47.5%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal45.6 (31–60)Conservative39.2 (25–54)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Kingston and the IslandsOntario · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 60 (45–73) · Con 26 (14–40)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.8 (45–73)Conservative25.9 (14–40)
Kings—HantsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 29 (16–42)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal58.4 (44–72)Conservative28.8 (16–42)
King—VaughanOntario · 2025: Con 61.5%Con 57 (41–70) · Lib 35 (20–49)	Conservative 61.5%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative56.5 (41–70)Liberal34.5 (20–49)
Kitchener CentreOntario · 2025: Con 34.2%Grn 46 (6–64) · Con 27 (14–46)	Conservative 34.2%	GrnGreengain from ConLeans	78%	Leans	Green46.0 (6–64)Conservative26.9 (14–46)Liberal20.8 (9–39)
Kitchener South—HespelerOntario · 2025: Con 47.9%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 47.9%	ConConservativeToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Conservative44.8 (30–59)Liberal42.0 (28–56)
Kitchener—ConestogaOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 43 (28–57)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Liberal46.6 (32–61)Conservative42.6 (28–57)
La Pointe-de-l'ÎleQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.1%BQ 44 (30–59) · Lib 34 (21–48)	Bloc Québécois 43.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	75%	Leans	Bloc Québécois44.4 (30–59)Liberal34.3 (21–48)
La Prairie—AtatekenQuebec · 2025: Lib 44.1%Lib 44 (29–57) · BQ 35 (21–48)	Liberal 44.1%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal43.6 (29–57)Bloc Québécois34.9 (21–48)Conservative13.3 (4–24)
LaSalle—Émard—VerdunQuebec · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 50 (36–63) · BQ 21 (11–33)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.8 (36–63)Bloc Québécois21.1 (11–33)NDP11.5 (2–21)Conservative10.8 (3–20)
LabradorNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 52 (36–66) · Con 35 (21–50)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal51.6 (36–66)Conservative35.1 (21–50)NDP10.6 (2–21)
Lac-Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 48 (32–64) · Lib 23 (10–39)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	91%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.0 (32–64)Liberal23.4 (10–39)Conservative20.1 (7–34)
Lac-Saint-LouisQuebec · 2025: Lib 67.6%Lib 66 (53–77) · Con 22 (12–32)	Liberal 67.6%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal65.9 (53–77)Conservative21.6 (12–32)
LakelandAlberta · 2025: Con 81%Con 70 (56–83) · Lib 14 (4–26)	Conservative 81%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative70.2 (56–83)Liberal13.9 (4–26)
Lanark—FrontenacOntario · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 44 (29–58)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Conservative45.0 (31–59)Liberal43.5 (29–58)
Langley Township—Fraser HeightsBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.4%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (28–57)	Conservative 51.4%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal42.2 (28–57)
Laurentides—LabelleQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.6%BQ 46 (30–62) · Lib 32 (17–48)	Bloc Québécois 44.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	81%	Likely	Bloc Québécois46.1 (30–62)Liberal31.7 (17–48)Conservative11.2 (2–23)
Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec · 2025: Lib 52.1%Lib 48 (34–63) · NDP 22 (6–35)	Liberal 52.1%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal48.0 (34–63)NDP21.5 (6–35)Bloc Québécois16.0 (7–27)
Laval—Les ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.7%Lib 48 (34–61) · Con 29 (17–41)	Liberal 49.7%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal47.7 (34–61)Conservative28.9 (17–41)Bloc Québécois15.6 (7–25)
Leduc—WetaskiwinAlberta · 2025: Con 74.7%Con 63 (48–76) · Lib 19 (8–32)	Conservative 74.7%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative63.0 (48–76)Liberal19.0 (8–32)NDP12.0 (3–22)
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau LakesOntario · 2025: Con 50%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 42 (28–57)	Conservative 50%	ConConservativeToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Conservative44.6 (30–59)Liberal42.2 (28–57)
Les Pays-d'en-HautQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 41 (26–55) · BQ 36 (22–50)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal40.5 (26–55)Bloc Québécois36.4 (22–50)Conservative13.7 (4–25)
LethbridgeAlberta · 2025: Con 61.1%Con 52 (37–67) · Lib 33 (19–48)	Conservative 61.1%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative52.4 (37–67)Liberal33.4 (19–48)
London CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 56.7%Lib 52 (38–67) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 56.7%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal52.3 (38–67)Conservative25.8 (13–39)NDP14.8 (4–26)
London WestOntario · 2025: Lib 56.2%Lib 53 (39–68) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 56.2%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal53.2 (39–68)Conservative32.0 (18–46)
London—FanshaweOntario · 2025: Con 40.6%NDP 36 (20–50) · Con 35 (22–50)	Conservative 40.6%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	47%	Toss-up	NDP35.6 (20–50)Conservative35.3 (22–50)Liberal24.8 (12–38)
Long Range MountainsNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 50.3%Con 48 (34–63) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 50.3%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative48.4 (34–63)Liberal40.3 (26–55)
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyneQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.4%Lib 46 (32–60) · BQ 28 (16–41)	Liberal 49.4%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal46.2 (32–60)Bloc Québécois27.9 (16–41)Conservative13.6 (5–24)
Longueuil—Saint-HubertQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 40 (27–54) · BQ 39 (25–53)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Liberal40.3 (27–54)Bloc Québécois39.2 (25–53)Conservative10.5 (2–20)
Louis-HébertQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.4%Lib 52 (36–67) · BQ 23 (10–37)	Liberal 55.4%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal52.1 (36–67)Bloc Québécois22.7 (10–37)Conservative16.6 (5–29)
Louis-Saint-Laurent—AkiawenhrahkQuebec · 2025: Con 44.9%Con 40 (24–55) · Lib 31 (16–46)	Conservative 44.9%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative39.8 (24–55)Liberal30.8 (16–46)Bloc Québécois20.5 (8–35)
Lévis—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 47.7%Con 43 (26–57) · Lib 27 (13–43)	Conservative 47.7%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative42.5 (26–57)Liberal27.2 (13–43)Bloc Québécois21.1 (9–35)
Madawaska—RestigoucheNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 34 (20–48)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal56.0 (41–70)Conservative33.8 (20–48)
MalpequePrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57.6%Lib 55 (39–70) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 57.6%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal54.9 (39–70)Conservative31.7 (18–46)
Marc-Aurèle-FortinQuebec · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 51 (37–64) · BQ 24 (13–36)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal51.1 (37–64)Bloc Québécois23.8 (13–36)Conservative16.9 (7–27)
Markham—StouffvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 51.4%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal49.5 (35–64)Conservative40.6 (27–55)
Markham—ThornhillOntario · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 55 (40–68) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal54.7 (40–68)Conservative35.8 (22–50)
Markham—UnionvilleOntario · 2025: Con 50.7%Lib 52 (35–73) · Con 39 (18–55)	Conservative 50.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal51.6 (35–73)Conservative39.2 (18–55)
Medicine Hat—Cardston—WarnerAlberta · 2025: Con 76.7%Con 65 (50–79) · Lib 19 (8–33)	Conservative 76.7%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.2 (50–79)Liberal19.3 (8–33)NDP10.1 (2–20)
Middlesex—LondonOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative46.2 (31–61)Liberal39.9 (26–54)
Milton East—Halton Hills SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 42 (28–55)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal48.7 (34–63)Conservative41.6 (28–55)
MirabelQuebec · 2025: BQ 39.9%BQ 42 (27–56) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Bloc Québécois 39.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	77%	Leans	Bloc Québécois41.6 (27–56)Liberal30.5 (17–45)Conservative18.2 (7–30)
Miramichi—Grand LakeNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 45 (31–60) · Lib 43 (29–58)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Conservative45.3 (31–60)Liberal43.4 (29–58)
Mission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 56.7%Con 52 (37–65) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 56.7%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative51.6 (37–65)Liberal36.0 (22–50)
Mississauga CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.9%Lib 54 (40–68) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 53.9%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal54.3 (40–68)Conservative35.8 (22–50)
Mississauga East—CooksvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 50.2%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 50.2%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.5 (34–63)Conservative40.3 (26–54)
Mississauga—Erin MillsOntario · 2025: Lib 55.7%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 55.7%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal53.8 (39–68)Conservative35.6 (22–50)
Mississauga—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 52.4%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 39 (25–54)	Liberal 52.4%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal50.5 (36–65)Conservative39.3 (25–54)
Mississauga—MaltonOntario · 2025: Lib 53.3%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 38 (23–52)	Liberal 53.3%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal51.5 (37–66)Conservative37.7 (23–52)
Mississauga—StreetsvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal49.6 (35–64)Conservative40.0 (26–54)
Moncton—DieppeNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 60 (46–74) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.3 (46–74)Conservative26.6 (14–40)
Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’AcadieQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.1%Lib 46 (31–60) · BQ 35 (21–50)	Liberal 47.1%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal46.0 (31–60)Bloc Québécois35.1 (21–50)Conservative10.0 (2–20)
MontcalmQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.6%BQ 48 (33–62) · Lib 24 (12–38)	Bloc Québécois 46.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	93%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.2 (33–62)Liberal24.1 (12–38)Conservative18.9 (8–31)
Montmorency—CharlevoixQuebec · 2025: Con 34.5%BQ 34 (19–49) · Con 33 (18–47)	Conservative 34.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from ConToss-up	48%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois34.2 (19–49)Conservative32.5 (18–47)Liberal25.1 (11–40)
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—LaniganSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.9%Con 63 (48–77) · Lib 18 (6–30)	Conservative 71.9%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative63.1 (48–77)Liberal17.8 (6–30)NDP11.4 (3–21)
Mount RoyalQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 50 (37–62) · Con 37 (24–50)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLikely	83%	Likely	Liberal49.7 (37–62)Conservative37.3 (24–50)
Mégantic—L’Érable—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 53 (37–68) · Lib 20 (7–34)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative53.3 (37–68)Liberal19.7 (7–34)Bloc Québécois17.9 (6–32)
Nanaimo—LadysmithBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 31 (17–46) · Grn 25 (7–40)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Conservative30.9 (17–46)Green24.6 (7–40)Liberal23.0 (11–37)NDP19.1 (7–32)
NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.8%Lib 63 (49–77) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 63.8%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal63.1 (49–77)Conservative27.6 (15–41)
New Tecumseth—GwillimburyOntario · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 35 (22–49)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative54.1 (39–68)Liberal35.3 (22–49)
New Westminster—Burnaby—MaillardvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 35.1%Lib 36 (22–50) · NDP 35 (20–48)	Liberal 35.1%	LibLiberalToss-up	48%	Toss-up	Liberal35.6 (22–50)NDP34.8 (20–48)Conservative25.2 (13–38)
Newmarket—AuroraOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 48 (34–62) · Lib 43 (29–58)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative48.1 (34–62)Liberal43.4 (29–58)
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-LakeOntario · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 43 (28–57)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Conservative43.9 (30–58)Liberal42.6 (28–57)
Niagara SouthOntario · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative44.8 (30–59)Liberal39.7 (26–54)
Niagara WestOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal41.6 (27–56)
Nipissing—TimiskamingOntario · 2025: Lib 47.2%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 37 (24–51)	Liberal 47.2%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal47.0 (33–61)Conservative37.3 (24–51)
North Island—Powell RiverBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 38.7%Con 36 (23–49) · NDP 36 (21–49)	Conservative 38.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	47%	Toss-up	Conservative35.5 (23–49)NDP35.5 (21–49)Liberal23.2 (12–36)
North Vancouver—CapilanoBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 60 (45–75) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal60.3 (45–75)Conservative27.9 (15–42)
Northumberland—ClarkeOntario · 2025: Con 49%Con 44 (30–59) · Lib 44 (29–58)	Conservative 49%	ConConservativeToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Conservative44.3 (30–59)Liberal43.9 (29–58)
Northwest TerritoriesNorthwest Territories · 2025: Lib 53.5%Lib 52 (34–70) · Con 27 (11–44)	Liberal 53.5%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal52.3 (34–70)Conservative27.1 (11–44)NDP16.1 (2–31)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—WestmountQuebec · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 62 (49–74) · Con 18 (9–27)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal61.8 (49–74)Conservative17.6 (9–27)
NunavutNunavut · 2025: NDP 37.3%NDP 39 (13–59) · Lib 37 (19–61)	NDP 37.3%	NDPNDPToss-up	52%	Toss-up	NDP39.3 (13–59)Liberal37.4 (19–61)Conservative20.7 (6–38)
Oakville EastOntario · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 40 (26–55)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal49.1 (34–63)Conservative40.0 (26–55)
Oakville WestOntario · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLikely	83%	Likely	Liberal53.2 (39–67)Conservative38.2 (24–52)
Okanagan Lake West—South KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.9%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 44 (29–59)	Conservative 50.9%	ConConservativeToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Conservative46.0 (31–61)Liberal43.6 (29–59)
OrléansOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 65 (50–78) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.9 (50–78)Conservative23.9 (12–37)
OshawaOntario · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative44.6 (30–59)Liberal38.1 (24–53)NDP11.7 (3–22)
Ottawa CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 62.7%Lib 56 (40–71) · NDP 27 (13–41)	Liberal 62.7%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal55.6 (40–71)NDP27.3 (13–41)Conservative11.2 (2–23)
Ottawa SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 65.2%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 23 (11–36)	Liberal 65.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal61.5 (47–75)Conservative22.6 (11–36)NDP10.0 (2–20)
Ottawa West—NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 23 (11–36)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.7 (45–74)Conservative22.5 (11–36)NDP11.4 (2–21)
Ottawa—Vanier—GloucesterOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 17 (6–30)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.8 (48–76)Conservative17.2 (6–30)NDP12.0 (3–22)
OutremontQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 52 (38–66) · BQ 13 (4–22)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal52.2 (38–66)Bloc Québécois12.6 (4–22)NDP12.5 (2–22)Green10.5 (1–18)Conservative10.2 (3–19)
OxfordOntario · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative47.9 (33–62)Liberal36.1 (22–51)
PapineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 53%Lib 51 (38–65) · NDP 18 (5–30)	Liberal 53%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal51.4 (38–65)NDP17.8 (5–30)Bloc Québécois16.3 (7–27)
ParklandAlberta · 2025: Con 75.2%Con 64 (50–78) · Lib 20 (8–32)	Conservative 75.2%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative64.2 (50–78)Liberal19.7 (8–32)
Parry Sound—MuskokaOntario · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative47.1 (33–61)Liberal41.0 (26–55)
Peace River—WestlockAlberta · 2025: Con 77.1%Con 70 (55–83) · Lib 14 (4–26)	Conservative 77.1%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative70.0 (55–83)Liberal13.9 (4–26)NDP11.5 (3–22)
Perth—WellingtonOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	71%	Leans	Conservative47.7 (33–62)Liberal38.9 (25–53)
PeterboroughOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 54 (40–68) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal54.1 (40–68)Conservative34.8 (21–49)
Pickering—BrooklinOntario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 54 (40–68) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 54.2%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal53.9 (40–68)Conservative35.0 (21–49)
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—VerchèresQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.1%BQ 48 (32–62) · Lib 35 (21–50)	Bloc Québécois 46.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	79%	Leans	Bloc Québécois47.7 (32–62)Liberal35.3 (21–50)
Pierrefonds—DollardQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 59 (46–71) · Con 28 (17–39)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal58.8 (46–71)Conservative28.1 (17–39)
Pitt Meadows—Maple RidgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.4%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 43 (28–57)	Conservative 47.4%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Liberal45.0 (31–59)Conservative42.7 (28–57)
Ponoka—DidsburyAlberta · 2025: Con 81.8%Con 70 (55–83) · NDP 19 (8–32)	Conservative 81.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative70.1 (55–83)NDP19.3 (8–32)
Pontiac—Kitigan ZibiQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 52 (37–67) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal52.1 (37–67)Conservative24.0 (12–37)Bloc Québécois11.1 (1–23)
Port Moody—CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 43.5%Lib 44 (30–58) · Con 34 (21–47)	Liberal 43.5%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal44.4 (30–58)Conservative33.6 (21–47)NDP17.4 (7–29)
Portage—LisgarManitoba · 2025: Con 69.4%Con 61 (46–74) · Lib 24 (12–38)	Conservative 69.4%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative61.0 (46–74)Liberal24.2 (12–38)
Portneuf—Jacques-CartierQuebec · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 44 (28–60) · Lib 27 (13–42)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative44.3 (28–60)Liberal27.1 (13–42)Bloc Québécois19.5 (7–34)
Prescott—Russell—CumberlandOntario · 2025: Lib 54.8%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 34 (21–48)	Liberal 54.8%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal54.6 (40–69)Conservative34.4 (21–48)
Prince AlbertSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.5%Con 62 (47–76) · Lib 20 (8–33)	Conservative 71.5%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative62.0 (47–76)Liberal20.1 (8–33)NDP13.5 (4–24)
Prince George—Peace River—Northern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 71.1%Con 66 (50–79) · Lib 19 (7–33)	Conservative 71.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.6 (50–79)Liberal18.9 (7–33)
ProvencherManitoba · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 58 (43–72) · Lib 27 (15–41)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative57.8 (43–72)Liberal27.3 (15–41)
Québec CentreQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 45 (30–60) · BQ 37 (21–51)	Liberal 49.5%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal44.7 (30–60)Bloc Québécois36.6 (21–51)
Red DeerAlberta · 2025: Con 71.6%Con 62 (48–76) · Lib 23 (11–36)	Conservative 71.6%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative62.2 (48–76)Liberal23.0 (11–36)
Regina—LewvanSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 42 (27–57)	Conservative 50%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Liberal44.0 (29–58)Conservative41.6 (27–57)
Regina—Qu'AppelleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 64%Con 55 (40–70) · Lib 28 (15–42)	Conservative 64%	ConConservativeLikely	95%	Likely	Conservative54.9 (40–70)Liberal28.1 (15–42)NDP11.8 (3–22)
Regina—WascanaSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50.1%Lib 45 (30–60) · Con 42 (27–56)	Conservative 50.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal45.2 (30–60)Conservative41.7 (27–56)
RepentignyQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.2%BQ 46 (32–61) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Bloc Québécois 42.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	80%	Leans	Bloc Québécois46.4 (32–61)Liberal34.2 (20–48)Conservative11.2 (2–21)
Richmond Centre—MarpoleBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative47.1 (33–61)Liberal42.1 (28–56)
Richmond East—StevestonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 48 (33–61) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal47.6 (33–61)Conservative41.7 (28–56)
Richmond Hill SouthOntario · 2025: Con 52.3%Con 50 (35–63) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 52.3%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative49.6 (35–63)Liberal41.0 (27–55)
Richmond—ArthabaskaQuebec · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 34 (19–48) · Lib 29 (15–44)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	49%	Toss-up	Conservative33.8 (19–48)Liberal29.2 (15–44)Bloc Québécois27.9 (14–43)
Riding MountainManitoba · 2025: Con 67.8%Con 59 (44–72) · Lib 23 (11–37)	Conservative 67.8%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative59.0 (44–72)Liberal23.3 (11–37)NDP11.0 (2–21)
Rimouski—La MatapédiaQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 49 (32–64) · Lib 33 (17–48)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	83%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.5 (32–64)Liberal32.8 (17–48)Conservative10.1 (0–22)
Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 45 (31–59) · BQ 33 (20–47)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal45.2 (31–59)Bloc Québécois33.1 (20–47)Conservative13.5 (4–24)
Rivière-du-NordQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.8%BQ 46 (30–60) · Lib 29 (15–43)	Bloc Québécois 43.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	87%	Likely	Bloc Québécois45.5 (30–60)Liberal28.6 (15–43)Conservative16.8 (6–29)
Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec · 2025: NDP 41%NDP 45 (21–60) · Lib 27 (15–43)	NDP 41%	NDPNDPLikely	83%	Likely	NDP44.5 (21–60)Liberal27.3 (15–43)Bloc Québécois18.2 (8–32)
Saanich—Gulf IslandsBritish Columbia · 2025: Grn 39.1%Grn 50 (23–67) · Lib 26 (12–44)	Green 39.1%	GrnGreenLikely	87%	Likely	Green50.0 (23–67)Liberal25.6 (12–44)Conservative17.6 (6–33)
Sackville—Bedford—PrestonNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 62%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 62%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.5 (47–75)Conservative27.0 (14–40)
Saint John—KennebecasisNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 58.1%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 58.1%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal56.1 (41–70)Conservative32.6 (19–47)
Saint John—St. CroixNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative47.8 (33–62)Liberal39.9 (26–54)
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 45 (30–61) · Lib 30 (16–46)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	82%	Likely	Bloc Québécois45.4 (30–61)Liberal30.4 (16–46)Conservative14.0 (3–27)
Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.3%BQ 46 (31–61) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Bloc Québécois 44.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	84%	Likely	Bloc Québécois46.1 (31–61)Liberal31.2 (17–45)Conservative12.6 (3–23)
Saint-LaurentQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.9%Lib 57 (44–69) · Con 26 (15–37)	Liberal 58.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal57.2 (44–69)Conservative25.7 (15–37)
Saint-Léonard—Saint-MichelQuebec · 2025: Lib 65.3%Lib 63 (50–74) · Con 18 (9–28)	Liberal 65.3%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal62.9 (50–74)Conservative18.2 (9–28)
Saint-Maurice—ChamplainQuebec · 2025: Lib 50%Lib 47 (31–63) · BQ 23 (9–37)	Liberal 50%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal47.1 (31–63)Bloc Québécois22.5 (9–37)Conservative20.5 (8–34)
Sarnia—Lambton—BkejwanongOntario · 2025: Con 53.1%Lib 43 (27–65) · Con 41 (19–57)	Conservative 53.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal42.5 (27–65)Conservative41.2 (19–57)
Saskatoon SouthSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 49.3%Lib 41 (27–56) · Con 41 (26–55)	Conservative 49.3%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal41.2 (27–56)Conservative40.7 (26–55)NDP12.9 (4–23)
Saskatoon WestSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 43 (28–58) · Lib 27 (15–41)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLikely	80%	Likely	Conservative42.8 (28–58)Liberal27.4 (15–41)NDP24.8 (12–38)
Saskatoon—UniversitySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 48.9%Lib 42 (27–57) · Con 40 (26–55)	Conservative 48.9%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal42.1 (27–57)Conservative40.3 (26–55)NDP12.3 (3–23)
Sault Ste. Marie—AlgomaOntario · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalLeans	64%	Leans	Liberal44.5 (30–59)Conservative39.1 (25–53)NDP10.8 (2–21)
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley EastOntario · 2025: Lib 57.3%Lib 55 (41–69) · Con 34 (20–47)	Liberal 57.3%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal55.2 (41–69)Conservative33.5 (20–47)
Scarborough NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 61 (45–74) · Con 29 (16–42)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.5 (45–74)Conservative28.6 (16–42)
Scarborough SouthwestOntario · 2025: Lib 61.5%Lib 60 (44–75) · Con 25 (12–39)	Liberal 61.5%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.9 (44–75)Conservative24.8 (12–39)
Scarborough—AgincourtOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal52.3 (38–66)Conservative38.3 (24–52)
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 27 (14–41)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.0 (46–75)Conservative27.0 (14–41)
Scarborough—WoburnOntario · 2025: Lib 60.4%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 30 (17–43)	Liberal 60.4%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal57.8 (43–72)Conservative29.5 (17–43)
Selkirk—Interlake—EastmanManitoba · 2025: Con 60.2%Con 51 (36–66) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 60.2%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative51.4 (36–66)Liberal31.8 (18–46)
SheffordQuebec · 2025: BQ 40.1%BQ 42 (26–57) · Lib 36 (21–51)	Bloc Québécois 40.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLeans	64%	Leans	Bloc Québécois41.6 (26–57)Liberal35.9 (21–51)Conservative13.4 (3–26)
SherbrookeQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.3%Lib 48 (32–63) · BQ 28 (14–42)	Liberal 51.3%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal47.7 (32–63)Bloc Québécois27.7 (14–42)
Sherwood Park—Fort SaskatchewanAlberta · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 29 (16–43)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative54.8 (40–69)Liberal29.3 (16–43)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Simcoe NorthOntario · 2025: Con 48.4%Con 43 (28–57) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 48.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative42.9 (28–57)Liberal42.2 (28–56)
Simcoe—GreyOntario · 2025: Con 52.1%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 52.1%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal41.4 (27–56)
Similkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenayBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 44.1%Con 41 (26–56) · Lib 34 (20–49)	Conservative 44.1%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative41.0 (26–56)Liberal34.2 (20–49)NDP18.5 (8–31)
Skeena—Bulkley ValleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.2%Con 43 (29–58) · NDP 43 (27–56)	Conservative 47.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Conservative42.7 (29–58)NDP42.5 (27–56)
Souris—Moose MountainSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 84%Con 77 (64–88) · Lib 10 (1–21)	Conservative 84%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative76.9 (64–88)Liberal10.2 (1–21)
South Shore—St. MargaretsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.9%Lib 56 (42–70) · Con 36 (22–49)	Liberal 54.9%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal56.1 (42–70)Conservative35.7 (22–49)
South Surrey—White RockBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 50.5%Lib 52 (38–65) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 50.5%	LibLiberalLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal51.8 (38–65)Conservative39.3 (25–53)
Spadina—HarbourfrontOntario · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 25 (12–38)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal58.1 (43–72)Conservative24.8 (12–38)NDP11.9 (3–22)
St. Albert—Sturgeon RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 63.9%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 63.9%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative52.6 (38–67)Liberal32.0 (18–46)
St. Boniface—St. VitalManitoba · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 62 (47–75) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.8 (47–75)Conservative23.8 (12–37)
St. CatharinesOntario · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal49.6 (35–64)Conservative35.6 (22–50)NDP10.2 (2–20)
St. John's EastNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 62.3%Lib 59 (43–73) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 62.3%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal58.5 (43–73)Conservative21.1 (9–34)NDP16.9 (6–29)
Stormont—Dundas—GlengarryOntario · 2025: Con 56.3%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 56.3%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative51.0 (36–65)Liberal37.9 (24–52)
SudburyOntario · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 34 (21–48)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal48.8 (34–63)Conservative33.9 (21–48)NDP12.4 (3–23)
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltOntario · 2025: Con 48.3%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 37 (24–51)	Conservative 48.3%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative44.7 (30–59)Liberal37.2 (24–51)NDP12.2 (3–23)
Surrey CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 39 (25–52)	Liberal 48%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal47.1 (33–61)Conservative38.5 (25–52)
Surrey NewtonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 40 (26–53)	Liberal 49.5%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal48.6 (34–63)Conservative39.6 (26–53)
Swift Current—Grasslands—KindersleySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 82%Con 74 (60–86) · Lib 12 (2–24)	Conservative 82%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.1 (60–86)Liberal12.2 (2–24)
Sydney—Glace BayNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 34 (20–49)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal54.0 (39–68)Conservative34.2 (20–49)
Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 51 (36–66) · NDP 30 (15–44)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal50.9 (36–66)NDP30.0 (15–44)Conservative13.6 (3–26)
Terra Nova—The PeninsulasNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 48%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 45 (30–59)	Conservative 48%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative45.5 (31–60)Liberal44.6 (30–59)
TerrebonneQuebec · 2025: Lib 38.7%BQ 39 (23–53) · Lib 38 (24–54)	Liberal 38.7%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois38.6 (23–53)Liberal38.4 (24–54)Conservative13.8 (4–25)
ThornhillOntario · 2025: Con 66.4%Con 61 (47–75) · Lib 30 (17–44)	Conservative 66.4%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative61.4 (47–75)Liberal29.8 (17–44)
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverOntario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 37 (23–52)	Liberal 48.5%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal45.7 (31–60)Conservative37.4 (23–52)NDP11.2 (2–21)
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 31 (17–44)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal51.9 (37–66)Conservative30.6 (17–44)NDP11.6 (3–22)
Thérèse-De BlainvilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.8%Lib 45 (31–59) · BQ 33 (19–46)	Liberal 45.8%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal45.0 (31–59)Bloc Québécois32.6 (19–46)Conservative14.6 (5–25)
Tobique—MactaquacNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative53.5 (39–68)Liberal34.6 (21–49)
Toronto CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 64.3%Lib 61 (46–75) · NDP 18 (7–30)	Liberal 64.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.5 (46–75)NDP17.8 (7–30)Conservative15.7 (5–28)
Toronto—DanforthOntario · 2025: Lib 66.6%Lib 61 (45–75) · NDP 19 (7–31)	Liberal 66.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.8 (45–75)NDP19.0 (7–31)Conservative14.7 (5–26)
Toronto—St. Paul'sOntario · 2025: Lib 61.9%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 27 (15–41)	Liberal 61.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.9 (46–75)Conservative27.4 (15–41)
Trois-RivièresQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 41 (25–56) · BQ 28 (14–43)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal40.7 (25–56)Bloc Québécois28.0 (14–43)Conservative22.0 (9–35)
University—RosedaleOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 61 (45–75) · Con 18 (6–31)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.6 (45–75)Conservative18.0 (6–31)NDP14.4 (4–26)
Vancouver CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal53.3 (39–67)Conservative25.8 (13–39)NDP15.4 (5–27)
Vancouver EastBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 43.6%NDP 48 (32–62) · Lib 32 (19–47)	NDP 43.6%	NDPNDPLikely	85%	Likely	NDP48.0 (32–62)Liberal32.1 (19–47)Conservative13.3 (4–24)
Vancouver Fraserview—South BurnabyBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 52.3%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 30 (18–43)	Liberal 52.3%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal52.8 (38–67)Conservative29.7 (18–43)NDP11.7 (3–22)
Vancouver GranvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.3 (45–74)Conservative24.4 (12–37)
Vancouver KingswayBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 37.2%NDP 42 (26–56) · Lib 34 (20–48)	NDP 37.2%	NDPNDPLeans	70%	Leans	NDP41.6 (26–56)Liberal33.8 (20–48)Conservative19.5 (9–32)
Vancouver QuadraBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 63 (49–76) · Con 25 (13–38)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.3 (49–76)Conservative25.0 (13–38)
VaudreuilQuebec · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 56 (42–68) · Con 20 (10–31)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal55.5 (42–68)Conservative20.1 (10–31)Bloc Québécois15.9 (7–26)
Vaughan—WoodbridgeOntario · 2025: Con 60%Con 57 (42–71) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 60%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative57.2 (42–71)Liberal35.1 (21–49)
Vernon—Lake Country—MonasheeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 48 (32–62) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative47.8 (32–62)Liberal39.9 (26–55)
VictoriaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 53 (37–68) · NDP 27 (14–41)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal52.6 (37–68)NDP27.1 (14–41)Conservative12.3 (2–24)
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-SoeursQuebec · 2025: Lib 63.7%Lib 61 (48–73) · Con 17 (7–26)	Liberal 63.7%	LibLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal61.0 (48–73)Conservative16.5 (7–26)
VimyQuebec · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 51 (37–64) · Con 22 (11–33)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal50.8 (37–64)Conservative21.6 (11–33)Bloc Québécois18.2 (8–29)
WaterlooOntario · 2025: Lib 59.5%Lib 56 (42–70) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 59.5%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal56.2 (42–70)Conservative27.8 (15–42)
Wellington—Halton Hills NorthOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Conservative45.4 (31–59)Liberal42.2 (28–56)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky CountryBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.7%Lib 58 (44–71) · Con 28 (16–42)	Liberal 59.7%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.1 (44–71)Conservative28.4 (16–42)
WhitbyOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal50.6 (36–65)Conservative39.0 (25–53)
WillowdaleOntario · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal51.6 (37–66)Conservative39.3 (25–53)
Windsor WestOntario · 2025: Con 39%NDP 36 (20–50) · Con 34 (20–49)	Conservative 39%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	50%	Toss-up	NDP35.7 (20–50)Conservative33.9 (20–49)Liberal25.2 (13–39)
Windsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 43 (29–57) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Conservative42.7 (29–57)Liberal41.4 (27–56)
Winnipeg CentreManitoba · 2025: NDP 39.4%NDP 46 (30–60) · Lib 33 (20–48)	NDP 39.4%	NDPNDPLeans	79%	Leans	NDP46.0 (30–60)Liberal33.2 (20–48)Conservative14.6 (5–27)
Winnipeg NorthManitoba · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 59 (44–72) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.5 (44–72)Conservative26.8 (14–40)
Winnipeg SouthManitoba · 2025: Lib 59%Lib 60 (45–73) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 59%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.9 (45–73)Conservative27.6 (15–41)
Winnipeg South CentreManitoba · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 64 (49–77) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.8 (49–77)Conservative20.7 (9–34)
Winnipeg WestManitoba · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 57 (43–71) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal57.3 (43–71)Conservative31.5 (18–46)
YellowheadAlberta · 2025: Con 69.1%Con 60 (45–73) · Lib 26 (14–40)	Conservative 69.1%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative59.7 (45–73)Liberal26.1 (14–40)
York CentreOntario · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative51.9 (37–66)Liberal39.3 (25–54)
York South—Weston—EtobicokeOntario · 2025: Lib 55.3%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 55.3%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal52.9 (38–67)Conservative34.8 (21–49)
Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.5%Con 69 (55–82) · Lib 15 (5–28)	Conservative 77.5%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative68.8 (55–82)Liberal15.4 (5–28)
York—DurhamOntario · 2025: Con 55.6%Con 52 (38–66) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 55.6%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative52.4 (38–66)Liberal36.0 (22–50)
YukonYukon · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 50 (31–69) · Con 33 (15–51)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal50.2 (31–69)Conservative33.4 (15–51)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 6 Feb 2026, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Liberal	42.7	39.1–46.3	−0.1
Conservative	35.9	33.0–38.8	0
NDP	9.4	6.6–12.2	+0.1
Bloc Québécois	6.8	5.8–7.9	+0.1
Green	2.8	2.2–3.5	0
People’s Party	1.6	1.0–2.1	0
Others	1.0		0

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 6 Feb 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 5 Feb 2026, in points.

Polls included (121)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
6 Feb	Nanos ResearchNew	1,049	±3.0	39.1	35.2	12.6	8.8	2.9	0.9
5 Feb	Research Co.	1,001	±3.1	45	32	10	7	3	2
2 Feb	Innovative Research	1,666	–	40	38	10	7	3	–
2 Feb	Mainstreet Research	1,276	±2.7	51	35.5	4	5.5	2.2	0.6
31 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	35	8	7	3	2
30 Jan	Ekos	1,453	±2.6	44.4	29.5	13.8	5.3	3.9	1.6
30 Jan	Nanos Research	1,055	±3.0	38.9	35.2	12.5	9.2	2.5	1.3
27 Jan	Abacus Data	2,498	±2.0	43	39	8	6	2	2
26 Jan	Angus Reid	1,420	±2.6	41	38	10	7	2	–
26 Jan	Léger	1,611	±2.4	47	38	5	6	2	–

111 earlier polls

Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
24 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	34	10	8	3	2
23 Jan	Nanos Research	1,053	±3.0	39.2	35.2	11.6	8	3.6	2.1
17 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	40	35	11	8	3	1
16 Jan	Abacus Data	2,008	±2.2	41	39	8	7	3	2
16 Jan	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	38.8	34.8	11.5	7.7	4.6	2.4
14 Jan	Abacus Data	1,850	±2.3	40	40	8	7	3	1
12 Jan	Pallas Data	1,120	±2.9	40	37	11	7	3	–
10 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	39	36	12	8	3	1
9 Jan	Nanos Research	1,054	±3.0	38.8	35.5	10.9	7.6	3.9	2.1
3 Jan	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	38	37	12	7	3	1
2 Jan	Nanos Research	1,059	±3.0	37.7	35.5	11.7	7.6	3.9	1.9
28 Dec 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	39	37	11	7	3	2
26 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,054	±3.0	38.4	34.7	11.3	7.4	3.9	1.7
21 Dec 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	38	38	12	7	3	2
19 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,059	±3.0	36.3	35.6	11.4	7.1	3.5	1.8
15 Dec 2025	Ipsos	1,502	±3.1	40	37	9	9	2	2
15 Dec 2025	Pallas Data	1,074	±3.0	40.9	37.7	7.9	8.2	3.6	–
14 Dec 2025	Innovative Research	2,159	–	39	39	10	7	4	–
12 Dec 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,098	±3.0	41	42	6	7	1	1
12 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	38.5	36	10.8	6.7	3.7	1.9
9 Dec 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	41	9	6	2	1
5 Dec 2025	Nanos Research	1,042	±3.0	39.1	37.8	9.5	6.3	3.3	1.8
1 Dec 2025	Abacus Data	1,802	±2.3	41	41	7	7	2	1
1 Dec 2025	Angus Reid	4,025	±1.5	40	37	10	9	3	–
1 Dec 2025	Innovative Research	1,846	–	39	38	9	8	4	–
30 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	41	36	12	5	2	2
30 Nov 2025	Léger	1,579	±2.5	43	36	8	9	4	–
28 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	41.9	38.2	8.4	7.3	2.7	1.2
27 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	2,421	±2.0	41	40	8	7	2	1
21 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,053	±3.0	41.9	37.2	9.1	7	2.7	1.6
18 Nov 2025	Kolosowski Strategies	890	±3.2	44	44	3	6	1	1
14 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	40.2	38.2	10.1	7.4	2.2	1.3
11 Nov 2025	Ekos	1,191	±2.8	44.1	33.2	10.7	5.4	3.3	1.8
8 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	1,244	±1.8	40	23	9	8	–	–
8 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	36	10	6	2	1
8 Nov 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,084	±3.0	44	40	5	6	2	2
7 Nov 2025	Angus Reid	2,038	±1.5	40	38	9	8	3	–
7 Nov 2025	Nanos Research	1,122	±2.9	40	36.8	11.4	7.5	2.3	1.2
6 Nov 2025	Abacus Data	1,916	±2.2	40	41	8	7	2	1
4 Nov 2025	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.4	35.5	8	5.8	3.5	2
4 Nov 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	38	11	5	2	1
3 Nov 2025	Léger	1,585	±2.5	43	38	7	7	4	–
31 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	924	±3.0	39.3	37.1	12.5	6.6	1.7	1.5
29 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	2,922	±1.8	40	42	8	6	3	1
24 Oct 2025	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.5	32.4	12.4	5.7	3	2
24 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	39.4	37	12.7	7	1.6	1.2
17 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,021	±3.1	39.3	36.6	12.1	6.8	2.8	1.3
15 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	4,501	±1.5	40	41	8	7	3	1
15 Oct 2025	Pallas Data	1,206	±2.8	41	37	11	6	2	2
10 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	38.5	36.8	12.2	6.5	3.9	1.4
5 Oct 2025	Léger	1,562	±2.5	44	38	6	7	3	–
3 Oct 2025	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	39.1	37.9	11.5	6.2	4	0.9
1 Oct 2025	Abacus Data	1,504	±2.5	40	41	7	7	3	2
26 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,030	±3.1	40.7	36.6	11.9	4.8	4.3	1.2
22 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	1,570	±2.0	38	41	10	8	2	1
21 Sep 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	37	10	5	2	2
19 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	40.6	35.7	11.6	5.5	3.2	2.2
17 Sep 2025	Abacus Data	2,230	±2.1	40	40	8	7	3	1
12 Sep 2025	Ekos	1,614	±2.4	42	34	12.6	5.2	3	2
12 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,049	±3.0	41.8	34.5	12.8	5.5	2.5	1.9
12 Sep 2025	Research Co.	1,003	±3.1	43	38	8	6	2	1
8 Sep 2025	Ipsos	1,001	±3.8	43	39	7	7	1	2
7 Sep 2025	Léger	1,592	±2.5	47	38	6	6	2	–
5 Sep 2025	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	42.7	32.9	12.8	5.2	3.5	1.6
4 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	3,656	±1.5	38	40	10	8	2	1
2 Sep 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	43	40	6	7	2	1
1 Sep 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,008	±3.1	42.3	40.4	8.4	5	1.2	1.6
29 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,009	±3.1	43.3	32.4	12.7	6.2	2.9	1.6
27 Aug 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	10	5	2	2
22 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,045	±3.0	43.7	34.2	10.7	5.5	3.3	1.6
19 Aug 2025	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	39	41	7	7	2	2
15 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,050	±3.0	44.4	32.4	11.6	4.9	3.2	2.8
8 Aug 2025	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	11	6	3	1
8 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,094	±3.0	44.8	31.9	11.5	6.1	2.6	2.5
7 Aug 2025	Abacus Data	1,686	±2.4	43	40	8	6	1.5	1.5
4 Aug 2025	Léger	1,617	±2.4	46	36	6	7	3	–
1 Aug 2025	Nanos Research	1,096	±3.0	43.7	32.5	12	5.3	2.5	3
1 Aug 2025	Pallas Data	1,301	±2.7	43.2	37.6	7.5	6.3	2.2	–
28 Jul 2025	Innovative Research	3,732	–	41	39	9	7	4	–
25 Jul 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	43	36	10	6	3	1
25 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	43.6	33.5	12.1	5.9	2.3	1.8
18 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,026	±3.1	44.3	34	10.3	6.6	2.3	2
15 Jul 2025	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	43	40	7	6	3	1
14 Jul 2025	Ekos	1,817	±2.3	43.2	30.5	13	5.5	3.5	3.6
11 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,047	±3.0	44.5	33.8	11.1	5.9	2.1	1.9
6 Jul 2025	Léger	1,546	±2.5	48	35	7	6	3	–
4 Jul 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	46	35	9	6	2	1
4 Jul 2025	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	45.1	32.6	11.5	6.2	1.8	1.8
2 Jul 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	40	9	7	2	2
2 Jul 2025	Research Co.	1,001	±3.1	47	37	6	6	2	1
30 Jun 2025	Innovative Research	4,029	–	43	38	8	6	3	–
27 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,076	±3.0	44.5	31.4	12.8	5.9	2.5	1.7
26 Jun 2025	Mainstreet Research	1,168	±2.9	47	38	6	3	3	1
20 Jun 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	38	11	6	3	1
20 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,090	±3.0	45.2	30.8	12.2	6.1	2.9	1.5
19 Jun 2025	Abacus Data	1,500	±1.9	42	39	7	6	3	1
13 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,080	±3.0	44.2	32.2	11.4	6.3	3.2	1.7
6 Jun 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	39	9	6	2	1
6 Jun 2025	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	42.6	32.8	12	6.5	3.9	1.3
5 Jun 2025	Abacus Data	2,585	±1.9	42	39	8	6	3	1
4 Jun 2025	Ekos	1,529	±2.5	43.9	32	12.7	5.2	3	3
30 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	41.7	36.4	10.5	6.5	3.4	1.1
30 May 2025	Spark Insights	3,450	–	41	40	8	7	–	–
23 May 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	44	39	8	6	1	1
23 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,127	±3.0	40.4	38.6	9.8	5.9	3.7	1.3
22 May 2025	Innovative Research	2,517	–	42	39	8	6	3	–
21 May 2025	Abacus Data	2,273	±2.1	41	40	8	7	3	1
16 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,127	±2.9	41.4	39.6	8.5	4.7	3.9	1.3
9 May 2025	Liaison Strategies	–	–	45	40	7	6	1	1
9 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,259	±2.8	41.5	40.5	7.8	5.1	3.3	1.3
2 May 2025	Nanos Research	1,297	±2.7	41.8	39.2	7.9	5.8	3.2	1.3

National polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s federal polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2025 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 172 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 199 projections, to 2 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	LibLiberal	ConConservative	NDPNDP	BQBloc Québécois	GrnGreen	LibLiberal maj.	ConConservative maj.	Minority
3 Oct 2026	Liaison Strategies	226	82	13	20	2	92%	2%	6%
2 Oct 2026	Nanos Research	225	83	13	20	2	92%	2%	7%
26 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	223	85	13	20	2	91%	2%	7%
25 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	222	86	12	20	2	91%	2%	7%
23 Sep 2026	Abacus Data	220	88	12	21	2	90%	2%	8%
19 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	221	87	13	20	2	90%	2%	8%
18 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	221	88	12	20	2	90%	2%	8%
12 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	219	88	13	21	2	90%	2%	8%

192 earlier projections

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 343 ridings. The national polling average sets each party’s change since that election. A rule fitted on the federal elections since 2006 turns it into a change for each of seven regions, and polls of a single province or region, from the pollsters’ own releases, correct that rule where they exist. Each riding moves with its region, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2025 share, and the ridings are adjusted so that each region reproduces its estimate. The Bloc Québécois runs only in Quebec. A first-term member running again gains a few points and an open seat loses a few; in Quebec, ridings with more French speakers move further in the direction of the province-wide change; members who crossed the floor take a small part of their 2025 vote to their new party.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a national polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from the six federal elections from 2008 to 2025. Tested on each of those elections with only the polls published before it, and with every size fitted on the other five, the projected leader won 82.9% of 1,973 ridings, and 90% ranges contained 93.6% of riding vote shares. Local campaigns, candidates other than incumbents and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2025 election results