Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake

Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake is a riding defined by two of Ontario's most iconic destinations. Niagara Falls, with its thundering cataracts and Clifton Hill entertainment district, is one of the world's most visited tourist attractions, while Niagara-on-the-Lake, a gracious town at the mouth of the Niagara River, is the heart of Ontario's wine country and home to the Shaw Festival theatre. Conservative incumbent Tony Baldinelli won re-election for a third term, fending off Liberal Andrea Kaiser in their third consecutive matchup.

Candidates

Tony Baldinelli (Conservative) -- Born and raised in Niagara Falls, Baldinelli holds a political science degree from McMaster University and a public relations certificate from Humber College. His career has been deeply intertwined with the local tourism industry -- after stints on Parliament Hill and at Queen's Park, he spent eighteen years as senior manager of communications and stakeholder relations at the Niagara Parks Commission. First elected in 2019, he has served as the Conservative shadow minister for tourism under Pierre Poilievre.

Andrea Kaiser (Liberal) -- A Niagara-on-the-Lake business owner, regional councillor, and three-term municipal councillor, Kaiser is the daughter of Inniskillin co-founder Karl Kaiser and proprietor of Drea's Wine Co. She holds a BA in history and politics from the University of Guelph and previously operated her family's restaurant and motel. She has chaired the Wineries of Niagara-on-the-Lake and served as retail manager at Reif Estate Winery. This was her third consecutive run for the seat.

Shannon Mitchell (NDP) -- Born and raised in Niagara Falls, Mitchell is a two-term District School Board of Niagara trustee first elected in 2018. She has worked alongside provincial MPP Wayne Gates since 2015 and campaigned on workers' rights, affordable housing, and public healthcare.

Celia Taylor (Green Party) -- Taylor ran for the Green Party, emphasizing environmental protection and sustainable tourism.

Dinah Althorpe (People's Party - PPC) -- Althorpe represented the People's Party in the riding.

About the Riding

The tourism industry is the economic engine of this riding. Niagara Falls draws millions of visitors annually to its hotels, restaurants, casinos, and attractions, while Niagara-on-the-Lake's more than thirty-five wineries and the Shaw Festival generate significant revenue and employment. The riding's economy is therefore unusually sensitive to travel disruptions -- the COVID-19 pandemic hit the area particularly hard, and recovery remained uneven heading into the 2025 election.

The riding received a new name and adjusted boundaries following the 2023 redistribution, but voters have consistently elected Conservatives since 2004. The Baldinelli-Kaiser rivalry has become a fixture of local politics, with Kaiser earning the most votes ever cast for a Liberal candidate in the riding's history during her first run in 2019 but unable to close the gap in subsequent attempts.

Cross-border relations and trade with the United States are perennial local concerns, given the riding's position along the Niagara River opposite New York State. The international bridges at Queenston-Lewiston and Rainbow Bridge carry significant commercial and tourist traffic. In 2025, with Canada-U.S. trade tensions elevated, these issues carried added urgency for a riding whose prosperity depends on the free flow of people and goods across the border.