Federal seat projection, 9 December 2025

As of 9 December 2025, from 91 polls

No federal election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the national polling average since that election, adjusted region by region with provincial and regional polls, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 3 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 9 December 2025.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the Liberals win a median of 169 seats (90% range 104.95–234) and a majority in 48%; the Conservatives 131 seats (90% range 71–192) and a majority in 12%; the Bloc Québécois 30 seats (90% range 16–44); the NDP 10 seats (90% range 2–18); the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–3). No party wins a majority in 40%.

Liberal majority
48%
Most seats in 71% of simulations
Conservative majority
12%
Most seats in 28% of simulations
No majority
40%
35 ridings with no party above 60%

172 for a majority

Liberal

169 seats (104.95–234) · majority 48%

Conservative

131 seats (71–192) · majority 12%

NDP

10 seats (2–18)

Bloc Québécois

30 seats (16–44)

Green

2 seats (0–3)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 172 of 343 seats. People’s Party and Other win no seat in the median simulation; People’s Party wins at least one in <1%, Other wins at least one in <1%.

Seat distributions

172 for a majority

Liberal

Median 169, 90%: 104.95–234

Majority in 48%

Most frequent: 166 (1.3%)

Conservative

Median 131, 90%: 71–192

Majority in 12%

Most frequent: 130 (1.4%)

NDP

Median 10, 90%: 2–18

Most frequent: 10 (8.9%)

Bloc Québécois

Median 30, 90%: 16–44

Most frequent: 30 (5.6%)

Green

Median 2, 90%: 0–3

Most frequent: 2 (54.4%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Liberal	169	104.95 to 234	166 seats, 1.3% of simulations	48%
Conservative	131	71 to 192	130 seats, 1.4% of simulations	12%
NDP	10	2 to 18	10 seats, 8.9% of simulations	0%
Bloc Québécois	30	16 to 44	30 seats, 5.6% of simulations	0%
Green	2	0 to 3	2 seats, 54.4% of simulations	0%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 172 of 343 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Abacus Data, fieldwork to 9 Dec 2025, 1,500 respondentsLiberal 41 · Conservative 41 · NDP 9 · Bloc Québécois 6 · Green 2 · People’s Party 1

Change since 5 Dec 2025

Median seats: Liberal −1, Conservative +1, NDP 0, Bloc Québécois 0, Green 0.
Chance of a majority, in points: Liberal −1, Conservative +1; no majority 0.
No riding changed projected leader.

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn
Solid 95%+	48	34	0	6	0
Likely 80–95%	56	33	4	16	1
Leans 60–80%	52	51	2	4	1
Toss-up <60%	35

Canada

Ottawa–Gatineau

Vancouver

Greater Toronto

Montreal

Calgary

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Seats changing hands

Won in 2025Projected

LibLiberal169

ConConservative144

NDPNDP7

BQBloc Québécois22

GrnGreen1

LibLiberal156

ConConservative118

NDPNDP6

BQBloc Québécois26

GrnGreen2

Toss-upToss-up35

Ridings by party: won in 2025, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2025	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
LibLiberal	169	156	5	3	15
ConConservative	144	118	–	7	19
NDPNDP	7	6	–	–	1
BQBloc Québécois	22	26	4	–	–
GrnGreen	1	2	1	–	–
Toss-up		35

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2025 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2025 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Liberal172nd-best riding: Kildonan—St. Paul, 46% · chance of a majority 48%

Conservative172nd-best riding: South Surrey—White Rock, 28% · chance of a majority 12%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 172 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 172nd-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

By region

2025 vote projected vote or median seats 90% range of seats 2025 seats

British Columbia43 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		40.1%, 2025: 41.8%		20 seats, 90% range 9 to 31; 2025: 20
Con		39.2%, 2025: 41.2%		18−1 seats, 90% range 6 to 30; 2025: 19
NDP		14.8%, 2025: 13.0%		4+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 8; 2025: 3
Grn		5.1%, 2025: 3.0%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1

Alberta37 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		56.7%, 2025: 63.6%		30−4 seats, 90% range 21 to 35; 2025: 34
Lib		29.3%, 2025: 27.9%		6+4 seats, 90% range 1 to 14; 2025: 2
NDP		9.3%, 2025: 6.3%		2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
Grn		1.6%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.5%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Manitoba and Saskatchewan28 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		50.8%, 2025: 54.9%		18−2 seats, 90% range 14 to 21; 2025: 20
Lib		32.3%, 2025: 34.1%		8+1 seats, 90% range 5 to 13; 2025: 7
NDP		12.4%, 2025: 9.4%		2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1
Grn		1.9%, 2025: 0.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.2%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Ontario122 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		46.3%, 2025: 49.2%		71+1 seats, 90% range 38 to 103; 2025: 70
Con		40.1%, 2025: 43.8%		49−3 seats, 90% range 16 to 81; 2025: 52
NDP		8.0%, 2025: 4.8%		1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 4; 2025: 0
Grn		2.8%, 2025: 1.1%		1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 0
PPC		1.2%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Quebec78 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		37.2%, 2025: 42.6%		38−6 seats, 90% range 24 to 52; 2025: 44
BQ		33.2%, 2025: 27.7%		30+8 seats, 90% range 16 to 44; 2025: 22
Con		20.9%, 2025: 23.3%		9−2 seats, 90% range 3 to 15; 2025: 11
NDP		5.5%, 2025: 4.5%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
Grn		2.1%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.1%, 2025: 0.8%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Atlantic32 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		52.1%, 2025: 55.5%		24 seats, 90% range 16 to 30; 2025: 24
Con		34.9%, 2025: 38.0%		8 seats, 90% range 2 to 16; 2025: 8
NDP		7.8%, 2025: 4.3%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		2.9%, 2025: 1.1%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Territories3 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		48.1%, 2025: 50.5%		2 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 2
NDP		16.7%, 2025: 13.4%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 1
Con		31.6%, 2025: 34.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 0
Grn		3.0%, 2025: 1.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Vote: each party’s share of the valid vote in 2025 and the projection’s estimate for the region now, on one scale (0–70%) for every region. Seats: the median and the middle 90% of the simulations, on each region’s own scale, and the change in the median from the 2025 result. Regions as in the model: Manitoba and Saskatchewan together; the three territories together.

All 343 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.

All 343 ridings: 2025 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abbotsford—South LangleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 43.1%Con 52 (38–66) · Lib 37 (24–52)	Conservative 43.1%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative52.3 (38–66)Liberal37.3 (24–52)
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouQuebec · 2025: Lib 41.2%BQ 38 (24–53) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Liberal 41.2%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois38.0 (24–53)Liberal37.3 (23–52)Conservative19.0 (8–31)
Abitibi—TémiscamingueQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.4%BQ 56 (40–72) · Lib 20 (7–35)	Bloc Québécois 49.4%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois56.3 (40–72)Liberal20.2 (7–35)Conservative16.3 (5–29)
Acadie—AnnapolisNova Scotia · 2025: Con 47.7%Lib 48 (32–69) · Con 38 (18–54)	Conservative 47.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal48.2 (32–69)Conservative38.4 (18–54)
Acadie—BathurstNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 67.5%Lib 63 (49–76) · Con 24 (11–36)	Liberal 67.5%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.4 (49–76)Conservative23.5 (11–36)
Ahuntsic-CartiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 61%Lib 55 (41–68) · BQ 21 (11–33)	Liberal 61%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal54.8 (41–68)Bloc Québécois21.3 (11–33)Conservative13.7 (5–24)
Airdrie—CochraneAlberta · 2025: Con 71.2%Con 63 (49–77) · Lib 25 (12–38)	Conservative 71.2%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative63.3 (49–77)Liberal24.9 (12–38)
AjaxOntario · 2025: Lib 56.3%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 34 (21–48)	Liberal 56.3%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal55.0 (40–69)Conservative34.0 (21–48)
Alfred-PellanQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 48 (34–62) · BQ 25 (14–38)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal48.1 (34–62)Bloc Québécois25.1 (14–38)Conservative19.4 (9–31)
Algonquin—Renfrew—PembrokeOntario · 2025: Con 55.7%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 55.7%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative51.7 (37–66)Liberal35.0 (21–49)
Argenteuil—La Petite-NationQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.5%Lib 40 (26–55) · BQ 29 (16–43)	Liberal 47.5%	LibLiberalLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal40.3 (26–55)Bloc Québécois28.9 (16–43)Conservative22.4 (11–35)
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillOntario · 2025: Con 54.7%Con 53 (39–67) · Lib 38 (25–53)	Conservative 54.7%	ConConservativeLikely	82%	Likely	Conservative53.1 (39–67)Liberal38.4 (25–53)
AvalonNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal56.3 (41–70)Conservative31.6 (18–46)
Barrie South—InnisfilOntario · 2025: Con 57.8%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 35 (22–50)	Conservative 57.8%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative54.0 (39–68)Liberal35.4 (22–50)
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 48 (32–62) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative47.5 (32–62)Liberal41.2 (27–56)
Battle River—CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 82.8%Con 75 (61–88) · Lib 12 (2–25)	Conservative 82.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative75.3 (61–88)Liberal12.4 (2–25)
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow LakeSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 75.8%Con 71 (56–84) · Lib 17 (6–29)	Conservative 75.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative71.1 (56–84)Liberal17.0 (6–29)
Bay of QuinteOntario · 2025: Lib 50.4%Lib 49 (35–63) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 50.4%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal49.1 (35–63)Conservative38.8 (25–53)
Beaches—East YorkOntario · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 64 (49–79) · Con 19 (7–32)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.2 (49–79)Conservative19.3 (7–32)NDP10.1 (1–21)
BeauceQuebec · 2025: Con 59.7%Con 58 (42–73) · BQ 18 (6–32)	Conservative 59.7%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative58.2 (42–73)Bloc Québécois17.9 (6–32)Liberal13.2 (2–27)
Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—HuntingdonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 51 (36–65) · Lib 25 (13–39)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	95%	Likely	Bloc Québécois50.7 (36–65)Liberal25.2 (13–39)Conservative16.5 (6–28)
Beauport—LimoilouQuebec · 2025: Lib 35.6%BQ 34 (19–49) · Lib 32 (17–47)	Liberal 35.6%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	46%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois33.6 (19–49)Liberal31.7 (17–47)Conservative25.9 (12–40)
BeauséjourNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal55.9 (41–70)Conservative30.3 (17–44)
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—LévisQuebec · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 46 (30–61) · BQ 24 (11–39)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeLikely	87%	Likely	Conservative45.5 (30–61)Bloc Québécois24.3 (11–39)Liberal22.3 (9–37)
Beloeil—ChamblyQuebec · 2025: BQ 48.3%BQ 55 (40–69) · Lib 26 (13–40)	Bloc Québécois 48.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois55.2 (40–69)Liberal26.3 (13–40)Conservative10.9 (2–21)
Berthier—MaskinongéQuebec · 2025: BQ 35%BQ 41 (26–56) · NDP 24 (6–38)	Bloc Québécois 35%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	84%	Likely	Bloc Québécois40.5 (26–56)NDP23.5 (6–38)Liberal17.5 (6–30)Conservative14.1 (4–26)
BourassaQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 55 (41–68) · BQ 21 (10–32)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal55.0 (41–68)Bloc Québécois20.7 (10–32)Conservative14.4 (6–24)
Bow RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 78.9%Con 72 (58–85) · Lib 17 (6–30)	Conservative 78.9%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.4 (58–85)Liberal17.1 (6–30)
Bowmanville—Oshawa NorthOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 43 (29–57)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative46.1 (31–60)Liberal42.7 (29–57)
Brampton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal47.6 (33–62)Conservative41.1 (27–55)
Brampton EastOntario · 2025: Lib 48.6%Lib 46 (32–61) · Con 42 (27–56)	Liberal 48.6%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal46.2 (32–61)Conservative41.5 (27–56)
Brampton North—CaledonOntario · 2025: Lib 49%Lib 46 (32–61) · Con 44 (29–58)	Liberal 49%	LibLiberalToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Liberal46.4 (32–61)Conservative44.0 (29–58)
Brampton SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 47 (32–62) · Con 45 (30–59)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Liberal47.1 (32–62)Conservative44.5 (30–59)
Brampton WestOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 48 (34–62) · Lib 43 (29–57)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative48.3 (34–62)Liberal42.9 (29–57)
Brampton—Chinguacousy ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 46 (32–61) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal46.0 (32–61)Conservative41.0 (27–55)
Brandon—SourisManitoba · 2025: Con 62.2%Con 59 (44–72) · Lib 20 (9–32)	Conservative 62.2%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative58.5 (44–72)Liberal20.2 (9–32)NDP17.4 (7–29)
Brantford—Brant South—Six NationsOntario · 2025: Con 52.4%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 52.4%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal38.0 (24–52)
Brome—MissisquoiQuebec · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 43 (28–58) · BQ 33 (19–48)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal43.2 (28–58)Bloc Québécois32.9 (19–48)Conservative16.0 (5–29)
Brossard—Saint-LambertQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.2%Lib 57 (43–69) · Con 18 (8–28)	Liberal 62.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal56.8 (43–69)Conservative17.7 (8–28)Bloc Québécois17.2 (8–28)
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 49 (34–62) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative48.5 (34–62)Liberal36.9 (23–51)
BurlingtonOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	83%	Likely	Liberal52.6 (38–67)Conservative37.0 (23–51)
Burlington North—Milton WestOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 50 (35–65) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal50.0 (35–65)Conservative40.9 (26–55)
Burnaby CentralBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 42.2%Lib 42 (28–56) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 42.2%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal42.2 (28–56)Conservative34.8 (22–49)NDP19.9 (9–32)
Burnaby North—SeymourBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.1%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 59.1%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal56.9 (42–71)Conservative32.2 (19–46)
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—AlnôbakQuebec · 2025: BQ 47%BQ 54 (38–69) · Lib 20 (8–35)	Bloc Québécois 47%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois53.9 (38–69)Liberal20.2 (8–35)Conservative18.2 (6–32)
Calgary CentreAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 43 (28–58)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal47.1 (32–61)Conservative42.8 (28–58)
Calgary ConfederationAlberta · 2025: Lib 48.1%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–52)	Liberal 48.1%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal51.3 (36–65)Conservative37.2 (23–52)
Calgary CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 52 (36–66) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative51.5 (36–66)Liberal38.8 (24–53)
Calgary EastAlberta · 2025: Con 60.5%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 33 (19–47)	Conservative 60.5%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative53.0 (38–67)Liberal33.1 (19–47)
Calgary HeritageAlberta · 2025: Con 61.4%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 61.4%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative54.0 (39–68)Liberal36.2 (22–50)
Calgary McKnightAlberta · 2025: Con 49.1%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 44 (30–58)	Conservative 49.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal45.2 (31–59)Conservative44.4 (30–58)
Calgary MidnaporeAlberta · 2025: Con 65.5%Con 58 (43–72) · Lib 31 (18–45)	Conservative 65.5%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative57.9 (43–72)Liberal31.3 (18–45)
Calgary Nose HillAlberta · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 52 (36–66) · Lib 38 (23–52)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	81%	Likely	Conservative51.8 (36–66)Liberal37.5 (23–52)
Calgary ShepardAlberta · 2025: Con 68%Con 60 (46–74) · Lib 30 (16–43)	Conservative 68%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative60.3 (46–74)Liberal29.6 (16–43)
Calgary Signal HillAlberta · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative54.6 (40–69)Liberal36.1 (22–50)
Calgary SkyviewAlberta · 2025: Con 55.4%Con 52 (37–67) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 55.4%	ConConservativeLikely	81%	Likely	Conservative52.2 (37–67)Liberal38.9 (25–53)
CambridgeOntario · 2025: Con 48.6%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 48.6%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative46.7 (32–61)Liberal41.1 (27–55)
Cape Breton—Canso—AntigonishNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.6%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 51.6%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal48.0 (33–63)Conservative40.6 (26–55)
Cape SpearNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 68.3%Lib 65 (50–78) · Con 22 (10–35)	Liberal 68.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.8 (50–78)Conservative22.0 (10–35)
CardiganPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57%Lib 54 (38–69) · Con 35 (20–50)	Liberal 57%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal53.7 (38–69)Conservative35.1 (20–50)
Cariboo—Prince GeorgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 60.3%Con 58 (44–71) · Lib 29 (16–42)	Conservative 60.3%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative58.2 (44–71)Liberal28.6 (16–42)
CarletonOntario · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal50.7 (36–65)Conservative40.8 (27–55)
Carlton Trail—Eagle CreekSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.4%Con 73 (58–85) · Lib 15 (5–27)	Conservative 77.4%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.5 (58–85)Liberal15.3 (5–27)
Central NewfoundlandNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 54.1%Con 51 (36–66) · Lib 40 (25–55)	Conservative 54.1%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative51.0 (36–66)Liberal40.4 (25–55)
Central NovaNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 48 (34–63) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal48.3 (34–63)Conservative39.9 (26–54)
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesQuebec · 2025: Con 42.4%Con 39 (24–54) · Lib 28 (14–43)	Conservative 42.4%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative39.4 (24–54)Liberal28.3 (14–43)Bloc Québécois25.0 (11–40)
CharlottetownPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 64.8%Lib 60 (44–75) · Con 26 (13–40)	Liberal 64.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.8 (44–75)Conservative26.2 (13–40)
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative52.9 (38–67)Liberal33.1 (20–47)
Chicoutimi—Le FjordQuebec · 2025: Con 34.1%Lib 50 (33–67) · BQ 32 (16–49)	Conservative 34.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal50.4 (33–67)Bloc Québécois32.4 (16–49)Conservative11.3 (1–24)
Chilliwack—HopeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 52 (38–66) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative52.3 (38–66)Liberal33.4 (20–47)
Churchill—Keewatinook AskiManitoba · 2025: Lib 45.5%Lib 44 (29–58) · NDP 32 (18–46)	Liberal 45.5%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal43.6 (29–58)NDP32.3 (18–46)Conservative19.0 (8–32)
Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.2%Lib 41 (27–54) · BQ 34 (21–47)	Liberal 45.2%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal40.9 (27–54)Bloc Québécois33.7 (21–47)Conservative18.6 (8–30)
Cloverdale—Langley CityBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 44 (30–59)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Conservative45.9 (31–60)Liberal44.4 (30–59)
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 48 (32–63) · Lib 26 (13–41)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative47.9 (32–63)Liberal26.4 (13–41)NDP20.6 (9–34)
Compton—StansteadQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 41 (26–56) · BQ 31 (17–46)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal40.8 (26–56)Bloc Québécois30.9 (17–46)Conservative18.6 (7–32)
Coquitlam—Port CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 42 (27–56)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal45.7 (31–60)Conservative41.6 (27–56)
Courtenay—AlberniBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 39.6%NDP 43 (27–58) · Con 32 (17–47)	NDP 39.6%	NDPNDPLeans	76%	Leans	NDP43.2 (27–58)Conservative31.6 (17–47)Liberal20.0 (8–34)
Cowichan—Malahat—LangfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 37.2%Con 37 (23–52) · NDP 34 (19–49)	Conservative 37.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative36.6 (23–52)NDP34.1 (19–49)Liberal24.2 (11–38)
Cumberland—ColchesterNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 41 (26–54)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal46.6 (32–61)Conservative40.5 (26–54)
Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—NitassinanQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.7%BQ 51 (35–67) · Con 22 (10–36)	Bloc Québécois 43.7%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois50.9 (35–67)Conservative22.2 (10–36)Liberal21.4 (9–35)
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—TémiscouataQuebec · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 43 (27–58) · BQ 26 (12–41)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative42.5 (27–58)Bloc Québécois26.0 (12–41)Liberal24.2 (11–39)
Dartmouth—Cole HarbourNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 62 (48–76) · Con 20 (8–33)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.0 (48–76)Conservative19.9 (8–33)NDP11.6 (3–22)
DavenportOntario · 2025: Lib 57.8%Lib 51 (36–66) · NDP 23 (10–36)	Liberal 57.8%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal51.1 (36–66)NDP23.3 (10–36)Conservative19.0 (8–32)
DeltaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 51.8%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 51.8%	LibLiberalLeans	79%	Leans	Liberal52.0 (38–66)Conservative39.6 (26–54)
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill RiverSaskatchewan · 2025: Lib 65.1%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 65.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.8 (48–76)Conservative21.2 (9–34)NDP11.9 (3–22)
Don Valley NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 37 (23–52)	Liberal 53.2%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (38–66)Conservative37.2 (23–52)
Don Valley WestOntario · 2025: Lib 62.6%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 62.6%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal59.3 (44–73)Conservative30.2 (17–44)
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalleQuebec · 2025: Lib 59.4%Lib 55 (41–67) · Con 20 (10–30)	Liberal 59.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal54.6 (41–67)Conservative19.8 (10–30)Bloc Québécois16.1 (7–26)
DrummondQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.8%BQ 49 (34–65) · Lib 21 (8–36)	Bloc Québécois 42.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois49.4 (34–65)Liberal21.3 (8–36)Conservative19.3 (7–33)
Dufferin—CaledonOntario · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 32 (19–46)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	93%	Likely	Conservative56.3 (41–70)Liberal32.4 (19–46)
Edmonton CentreAlberta · 2025: Lib 44.3%Lib 46 (32–61) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 44.3%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal46.3 (32–61)Conservative29.0 (16–43)NDP19.5 (7–32)
Edmonton GatewayAlberta · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 41 (26–56)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative46.3 (31–61)Liberal40.7 (26–56)
Edmonton GriesbachAlberta · 2025: Con 45.5%NDP 40 (22–54) · Con 38 (24–54)	Conservative 45.5%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	54%	Toss-up	NDP39.9 (22–54)Conservative38.2 (24–54)Liberal16.8 (6–29)
Edmonton ManningAlberta · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative44.8 (30–59)Liberal35.9 (22–50)NDP13.7 (4–24)
Edmonton NorthwestAlberta · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 38 (23–52)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative48.0 (33–62)Liberal37.6 (23–52)
Edmonton RiverbendAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 52 (35–73) · Con 37 (16–53)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal52.0 (35–73)Conservative36.6 (16–53)
Edmonton SoutheastAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 52.9%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative47.7 (33–62)Liberal38.4 (24–53)
Edmonton StrathconaAlberta · 2025: NDP 47%NDP 54 (35–69) · Con 24 (12–39)	NDP 47%	NDPNDPLikely	94%	Likely	NDP54.3 (35–69)Conservative24.1 (12–39)Liberal16.6 (6–30)
Edmonton WestAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 45 (31–60) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 52.9%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative45.1 (31–60)Liberal41.7 (27–56)
Eglinton—LawrenceOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal48.7 (34–63)Conservative42.4 (28–56)
EgmontPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 47 (32–63) · Con 40 (25–55)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal47.4 (32–63)Conservative40.0 (25–55)
Elgin—St. Thomas—London SouthOntario · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 38 (25–53)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative48.5 (34–63)Liberal38.4 (25–53)
Elmwood—TransconaManitoba · 2025: Con 41.6%Con 38 (25–53) · NDP 38 (23–52)	Conservative 41.6%	ConConservativeToss-up	49%	Toss-up	Conservative38.3 (25–53)NDP38.2 (23–52)Liberal18.5 (7–31)
Esquimalt—Saanich—SookeBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 25 (12–40)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal48.4 (33–63)Conservative25.3 (12–40)NDP20.2 (8–33)
EssexOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative53.3 (38–67)Liberal34.0 (20–48)
Etobicoke CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.6%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 53.6%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal50.6 (36–65)Conservative40.6 (26–55)
Etobicoke NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 52.6%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 52.6%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal51.7 (37–66)Conservative35.9 (22–50)
Etobicoke—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 57.4%Lib 55 (39–69) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 57.4%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal54.5 (39–69)Conservative35.5 (22–50)
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant NorthOntario · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative48.7 (34–63)Liberal40.3 (26–55)
Fleetwood—Port KellsBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 48 (34–62) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 47.9%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.0 (34–62)Conservative40.3 (26–54)
FoothillsAlberta · 2025: Con 76.3%Con 69 (54–82) · Lib 20 (8–33)	Conservative 76.3%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative68.8 (54–82)Liberal20.2 (8–33)
Fort McMurray—Cold LakeAlberta · 2025: Con 80.2%Con 73 (59–85) · Lib 16 (5–28)	Conservative 80.2%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.0 (59–85)Liberal15.7 (5–28)
Fredericton—OromoctoNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 61.3%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 61.3%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.2 (44–72)Conservative27.9 (15–41)
Fundy RoyalNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 36 (23–51)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLikely	80%	Likely	Conservative49.5 (35–64)Liberal36.3 (23–51)
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—ListugujQuebec · 2025: BQ 45.8%BQ 55 (39–71) · Lib 29 (15–44)	Bloc Québécois 45.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	93%	Likely	Bloc Québécois55.3 (39–71)Liberal29.1 (15–44)
GatineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.5%Lib 54 (38–68) · BQ 22 (10–35)	Liberal 60.5%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal53.6 (38–68)Bloc Québécois21.7 (10–35)Conservative17.4 (7–29)
Grande PrairieAlberta · 2025: Con 81.7%Con 74 (61–86) · Lib 13 (3–24)	Conservative 81.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.4 (61–86)Liberal12.8 (3–24)
GuelphOntario · 2025: Lib 54.7%Lib 50 (35–65) · Con 24 (12–38)	Liberal 54.7%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal49.7 (35–65)Conservative24.4 (12–38)Green17.0 (1–31)
Haldimand—NorfolkOntario · 2025: Con 57.6%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 57.6%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative53.2 (38–67)Liberal33.5 (20–48)
Haliburton—Kawartha LakesOntario · 2025: Con 56.6%Con 53 (37–67) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 56.6%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative52.5 (37–67)Liberal36.2 (22–51)
HalifaxNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 57 (42–72) · NDP 23 (10–36)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal57.1 (42–72)NDP22.9 (10–36)Conservative15.0 (5–27)
Halifax WestNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 65.6%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 24 (12–38)	Liberal 65.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.5 (46–74)Conservative24.4 (12–38)
Hamilton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 37.6%NDP 36 (20–50) · Lib 34 (21–49)	Liberal 37.6%	NDPNDPgain from LibToss-up	51%	Toss-up	NDP35.8 (20–50)Liberal34.4 (21–49)Conservative23.1 (11–37)
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative47.4 (33–61)Liberal41.7 (28–56)
Hamilton MountainOntario · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 41 (27–56) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal41.3 (27–56)Conservative36.7 (23–51)NDP17.1 (6–29)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasOntario · 2025: Lib 56.1%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 56.1%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal54.2 (39–68)Conservative31.4 (18–45)
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—TyendinagaOntario · 2025: Con 54.3%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 54.3%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative49.9 (35–64)Liberal37.3 (23–52)
Hochelaga—Rosemont-EstQuebec · 2025: Lib 46.1%Lib 41 (28–55) · BQ 31 (18–44)	Liberal 46.1%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal41.4 (28–55)Bloc Québécois31.2 (18–44)NDP14.2 (3–25)
Honoré-MercierQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.2%Lib 57 (44–69) · Con 20 (9–30)	Liberal 60.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal56.7 (44–69)Conservative19.5 (9–30)Bloc Québécois15.9 (7–26)
Hull—AylmerQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 56 (42–69) · BQ 16 (7–28)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal56.1 (42–69)Bloc Québécois16.4 (7–28)Conservative15.7 (6–26)
Humber River—Black CreekOntario · 2025: Lib 55.6%Lib 52 (37–67) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 55.6%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal51.9 (37–67)Conservative32.2 (19–46)NDP10.1 (2–20)
Huron—BruceOntario · 2025: Con 53.2%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 53.2%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative49.0 (34–63)Liberal38.6 (25–53)
Joliette—ManawanQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.3%BQ 56 (41–70) · Lib 24 (12–37)	Bloc Québécois 49.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois56.1 (41–70)Liberal23.9 (12–37)Conservative12.5 (3–23)
JonquièreQuebec · 2025: BQ 40%BQ 47 (30–63) · Con 26 (13–41)	Bloc Québécois 40%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	87%	Likely	Bloc Québécois46.9 (30–63)Conservative26.4 (13–41)Liberal19.3 (6–34)
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 50 (34–65) · Lib 37 (22–52)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative49.7 (34–65)Liberal36.8 (22–52)
Kamloops—Thompson—NicolaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.5%Con 49 (34–64) · Lib 38 (24–54)	Conservative 51.5%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative49.2 (34–64)Liberal38.0 (24–54)
KanataOntario · 2025: Lib 60.8%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 60.8%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal57.1 (42–71)Conservative32.2 (19–46)
Kapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukOntario · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 46 (32–61) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative46.4 (32–61)Liberal33.9 (20–48)NDP14.6 (4–26)
KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 43 (28–58)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLeans	65%	Leans	Liberal48.9 (34–64)Conservative42.8 (28–58)
Kenora—KiiwetinoongOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 43 (29–58) · Lib 31 (18–46)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative43.1 (29–58)Liberal31.3 (18–46)NDP19.5 (7–32)
Kildonan—St. PaulManitoba · 2025: Con 47.5%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 47.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Conservative43.6 (29–58)Liberal42.0 (28–56)
Kingston and the IslandsOntario · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 27 (15–41)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.9 (44–73)Conservative27.0 (15–41)
Kings—HantsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 56 (42–70) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal56.0 (42–70)Conservative30.4 (17–44)
King—VaughanOntario · 2025: Con 61.5%Con 58 (43–71) · Lib 33 (20–48)	Conservative 61.5%	ConConservativeLikely	93%	Likely	Conservative57.6 (43–71)Liberal33.4 (20–48)
Kitchener CentreOntario · 2025: Con 34.2%Grn 46 (6–65) · Con 28 (14–47)	Conservative 34.2%	GrnGreengain from ConLeans	79%	Leans	Green46.4 (6–65)Conservative27.5 (14–47)Liberal20.0 (8–38)
Kitchener South—HespelerOntario · 2025: Con 47.9%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 47.9%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative45.9 (32–60)Liberal41.0 (27–55)
Kitchener—ConestogaOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 44 (29–58)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal45.6 (31–60)Conservative43.8 (29–58)
La Pointe-de-l'ÎleQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.1%BQ 50 (35–64) · Lib 30 (17–44)	Bloc Québécois 43.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	89%	Likely	Bloc Québécois49.6 (35–64)Liberal30.4 (17–44)Conservative10.5 (2–21)
La Prairie—AtatekenQuebec · 2025: Lib 44.1%BQ 40 (26–53) · Lib 40 (25–53)	Liberal 44.1%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois39.6 (26–53)Liberal39.5 (25–53)Conservative14.3 (5–25)
LaSalle—Émard—VerdunQuebec · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 47 (34–60) · BQ 25 (14–37)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal47.2 (34–60)Bloc Québécois24.9 (14–37)Conservative11.8 (4–21)NDP11.4 (2–21)
LabradorNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLeans	79%	Leans	Liberal49.3 (34–64)Conservative36.6 (23–51)NDP10.7 (2–21)
Lac-Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 53 (37–69) · Con 21 (8–35)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois53.1 (37–69)Conservative21.0 (8–35)Liberal19.3 (7–34)
Lac-Saint-LouisQuebec · 2025: Lib 67.6%Lib 64 (51–76) · Con 23 (13–34)	Liberal 67.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.0 (51–76)Conservative23.2 (13–34)
LakelandAlberta · 2025: Con 81%Con 73 (59–85) · Lib 13 (3–25)	Conservative 81%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.4 (59–85)Liberal13.1 (3–25)
Lanark—FrontenacOntario · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 43 (28–57)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Conservative46.1 (32–60)Liberal42.5 (28–57)
Langley Township—Fraser HeightsBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.4%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 51.4%	ConConservativeLeans	71%	Leans	Conservative49.6 (35–64)Liberal41.1 (27–56)
Laurentides—LabelleQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.6%BQ 52 (35–67) · Lib 27 (13–43)	Bloc Québécois 44.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois51.5 (35–67)Liberal27.3 (13–43)Conservative12.2 (2–24)
Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec · 2025: Lib 52.1%Lib 46 (31–60) · NDP 22 (6–35)	Liberal 52.1%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal45.5 (31–60)NDP21.5 (6–35)Bloc Québécois19.7 (9–32)
Laval—Les ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.7%Lib 45 (31–58) · Con 31 (18–43)	Liberal 49.7%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal44.6 (31–58)Conservative30.6 (18–43)Bloc Québécois18.3 (9–29)
Leduc—WetaskiwinAlberta · 2025: Con 74.7%Con 67 (52–80) · Lib 18 (8–31)	Conservative 74.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative66.7 (52–80)Liberal18.3 (8–31)
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau LakesOntario · 2025: Con 50%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 50%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative45.8 (31–60)Liberal41.2 (27–56)
Les Pays-d'en-HautQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%BQ 41 (27–56) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Liberal 41%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	64%	Leans	Bloc Québécois41.3 (27–56)Liberal36.2 (22–50)Conservative14.8 (5–26)
LethbridgeAlberta · 2025: Con 61.1%Con 56 (40–71) · Lib 33 (18–47)	Conservative 61.1%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative55.5 (40–71)Liberal32.5 (18–47)
London CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 56.7%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 27 (14–41)	Liberal 56.7%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal51.6 (37–66)Conservative27.0 (14–41)NDP14.1 (4–25)
London WestOntario · 2025: Lib 56.2%Lib 52 (38–67) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 56.2%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (38–67)Conservative33.1 (19–47)
London—FanshaweOntario · 2025: Con 40.6%Con 37 (23–52) · NDP 34 (18–49)	Conservative 40.6%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative36.7 (23–52)NDP34.3 (18–49)Liberal24.4 (12–38)
Long Range MountainsNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 50.3%Con 50 (35–65) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 50.3%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative50.1 (35–65)Liberal38.0 (24–53)
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyneQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.4%Lib 43 (29–57) · BQ 33 (20–46)	Liberal 49.4%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal42.7 (29–57)Bloc Québécois32.5 (20–46)Conservative14.9 (6–26)
Longueuil—Saint-HubertQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%BQ 44 (30–58) · Lib 36 (23–50)	Liberal 41%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	71%	Leans	Bloc Québécois44.0 (30–58)Liberal36.3 (23–50)Conservative11.4 (3–21)
Louis-HébertQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.4%Lib 48 (32–63) · BQ 27 (13–42)	Liberal 55.4%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal47.8 (32–63)Bloc Québécois27.3 (13–42)Conservative18.1 (6–31)
Louis-Saint-Laurent—AkiawenhrahkQuebec · 2025: Con 44.9%Con 42 (25–57) · Lib 27 (12–42)	Conservative 44.9%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative41.6 (25–57)Liberal26.7 (12–42)Bloc Québécois24.6 (11–40)
Lévis—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 47.7%Con 44 (28–59) · BQ 25 (12–40)	Conservative 47.7%	ConConservativeLikely	83%	Likely	Conservative44.3 (28–59)Bloc Québécois25.3 (12–40)Liberal23.2 (10–38)
Madawaska—RestigoucheNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 36 (22–49)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (39–68)Conservative35.5 (22–49)
MalpequePrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57.6%Lib 52 (37–68) · Con 33 (19–48)	Liberal 57.6%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (37–68)Conservative33.3 (19–48)
Marc-Aurèle-FortinQuebec · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 48 (34–61) · BQ 28 (16–41)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal47.6 (34–61)Bloc Québécois27.7 (16–41)Conservative18.1 (8–29)
Markham—StouffvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 51.4%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal48.5 (34–63)Conservative41.8 (28–56)
Markham—ThornhillOntario · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 54 (39–67) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.7 (39–67)Conservative37.0 (23–51)
Markham—UnionvilleOntario · 2025: Con 50.7%Lib 51 (34–72) · Con 40 (19–56)	Conservative 50.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal50.6 (34–72)Conservative40.4 (19–56)
Medicine Hat—Cardston—WarnerAlberta · 2025: Con 76.7%Con 69 (54–82) · Lib 19 (7–32)	Conservative 76.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative68.7 (54–82)Liberal18.6 (7–32)
Middlesex—LondonOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 47 (33–62) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	71%	Leans	Conservative47.4 (33–62)Liberal39.0 (25–53)
Milton East—Halton Hills SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 43 (29–56)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal47.7 (33–62)Conservative42.7 (29–56)
MirabelQuebec · 2025: BQ 39.9%BQ 47 (31–61) · Lib 26 (14–40)	Bloc Québécois 39.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	90%	Likely	Bloc Québécois46.6 (31–61)Liberal26.4 (14–40)Conservative19.2 (8–31)
Miramichi—Grand LakeNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative46.8 (32–61)Liberal41.1 (27–55)
Mission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 56.7%Con 54 (40–68) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 56.7%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative54.4 (40–68)Liberal34.8 (21–49)
Mississauga CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.9%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 53.9%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal53.3 (39–67)Conservative37.0 (23–51)
Mississauga East—CooksvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 50.2%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 42 (27–56)	Liberal 50.2%	LibLiberalLeans	65%	Leans	Liberal47.5 (33–62)Conservative41.5 (27–56)
Mississauga—Erin MillsOntario · 2025: Lib 55.7%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 55.7%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal52.8 (38–67)Conservative36.7 (23–51)
Mississauga—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 52.4%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 40 (26–55)	Liberal 52.4%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal49.5 (35–64)Conservative40.4 (26–55)
Mississauga—MaltonOntario · 2025: Lib 53.3%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 39 (24–53)	Liberal 53.3%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal50.5 (36–65)Conservative38.9 (24–53)
Mississauga—StreetsvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal48.5 (34–63)Conservative41.2 (27–55)
Moncton—DieppeNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal57.9 (43–72)Conservative28.1 (15–42)
Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’AcadieQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.1%Lib 42 (27–56) · BQ 40 (26–55)	Liberal 47.1%	LibLiberalToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal41.8 (27–56)Bloc Québécois40.0 (26–55)Conservative11.0 (2–21)
MontcalmQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.6%BQ 53 (38–67) · Lib 20 (9–33)	Bloc Québécois 46.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois53.3 (38–67)Liberal20.0 (9–33)Conservative19.7 (8–32)
Montmorency—CharlevoixQuebec · 2025: Con 34.5%BQ 39 (23–54) · Con 34 (19–49)	Conservative 34.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from ConLeans	61%	Leans	Bloc Québécois38.8 (23–54)Conservative33.7 (19–49)Liberal21.1 (8–35)
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—LaniganSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.9%Con 67 (53–81) · Lib 15 (4–27)	Conservative 71.9%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative67.2 (53–81)Liberal15.0 (4–27)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Mount RoyalQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 48 (35–60) · Con 40 (27–52)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal47.6 (35–60)Conservative39.7 (27–52)
Mégantic—L’Érable—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 55 (39–70) · BQ 22 (9–36)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative55.1 (39–70)Bloc Québécois21.8 (9–36)Liberal16.0 (4–30)
Nanaimo—LadysmithBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 33 (19–49) · Grn 24 (6–39)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative33.4 (19–49)Green23.9 (6–39)Liberal22.5 (10–37)NDP18.5 (7–31)
NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.8%Lib 62 (48–76) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 63.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal62.2 (48–76)Conservative28.6 (16–43)
New Tecumseth—GwillimburyOntario · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 55 (41–69) · Lib 34 (21–48)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative55.2 (41–69)Liberal34.3 (21–48)
New Westminster—Burnaby—MaillardvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 35.1%Lib 35 (22–49) · NDP 34 (19–47)	Liberal 35.1%	LibLiberalToss-up	46%	Toss-up	Liberal35.0 (22–49)NDP33.7 (19–47)Conservative27.6 (15–41)
Newmarket—AuroraOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 49 (35–63) · Lib 42 (28–57)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative49.3 (35–63)Liberal42.3 (28–57)
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-LakeOntario · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative45.0 (31–59)Liberal41.7 (27–56)
Niagara SouthOntario · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative45.9 (32–60)Liberal38.8 (25–53)
Niagara WestOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative47.9 (33–62)Liberal40.6 (26–55)
Nipissing—TimiskamingOntario · 2025: Lib 47.2%Lib 46 (32–61) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 47.2%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal46.1 (32–61)Conservative38.5 (25–53)
North Island—Powell RiverBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 38.7%Con 38 (25–52) · NDP 34 (20–48)	Conservative 38.7%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative38.1 (25–52)NDP34.3 (20–48)Liberal22.6 (11–35)
North Vancouver—CapilanoBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 59 (44–74) · Con 30 (17–45)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal59.2 (44–74)Conservative30.3 (17–45)
Northumberland—ClarkeOntario · 2025: Con 49%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 43 (28–57)	Conservative 49%	ConConservativeToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Conservative45.5 (31–60)Liberal42.9 (28–57)
Northwest TerritoriesNorthwest Territories · 2025: Lib 53.5%Lib 51 (33–69) · Con 29 (12–46)	Liberal 53.5%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal51.1 (33–69)Conservative29.0 (12–46)NDP15.3 (2–30)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—WestmountQuebec · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 60 (47–72) · Con 19 (10–29)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.2 (47–72)Conservative19.2 (10–29)
NunavutNunavut · 2025: NDP 37.3%NDP 38 (11–58) · Lib 37 (18–60)	NDP 37.3%	NDPNDPToss-up	50%	Toss-up	NDP38.1 (11–58)Liberal36.5 (18–60)Conservative22.5 (7–40)
Oakville EastOntario · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 41 (27–56)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal48.1 (33–62)Conservative41.2 (27–56)
Oakville WestOntario · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal52.2 (38–66)Conservative39.3 (25–53)
Okanagan Lake West—South KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.9%Con 49 (34–64) · Lib 42 (27–57)	Conservative 50.9%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative48.8 (34–64)Liberal42.4 (27–57)
OrléansOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 64 (49–77) · Con 25 (13–38)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal64.0 (49–77)Conservative25.0 (13–38)
OshawaOntario · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 37 (24–52)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative45.8 (31–60)Liberal37.3 (24–52)NDP11.1 (2–21)
Ottawa CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 62.7%Lib 55 (40–71) · NDP 26 (12–40)	Liberal 62.7%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal55.4 (40–71)NDP26.4 (12–40)Conservative12.1 (2–24)
Ottawa SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 65.2%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 24 (11–37)	Liberal 65.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.7 (46–74)Conservative23.6 (11–37)
Ottawa West—NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 24 (11–37)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.0 (44–73)Conservative23.5 (11–37)NDP10.8 (2–21)
Ottawa—Vanier—GloucesterOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 62 (47–76) · Con 18 (7–31)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.1 (47–76)Conservative18.1 (7–31)NDP11.4 (3–21)
OutremontQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 50 (36–64) · BQ 15 (6–26)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.6 (36–64)Bloc Québécois15.4 (6–26)NDP12.4 (2–22)Conservative11.3 (3–21)Green10.4 (1–18)
OxfordOntario · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 35 (22–50)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLikely	81%	Likely	Conservative49.1 (34–63)Liberal35.2 (22–50)
PapineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 53%Lib 50 (36–64) · BQ 20 (10–31)	Liberal 53%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal50.0 (36–64)Bloc Québécois19.8 (10–31)NDP18.0 (5–30)
ParklandAlberta · 2025: Con 75.2%Con 68 (53–80) · Lib 19 (8–31)	Conservative 75.2%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative67.6 (53–80)Liberal18.9 (8–31)
Parry Sound—MuskokaOntario · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 48 (34–62) · Lib 40 (25–54)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative48.4 (34–62)Liberal40.0 (25–54)
Peace River—WestlockAlberta · 2025: Con 77.1%Con 74 (59–86) · Lib 13 (4–25)	Conservative 77.1%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.5 (59–86)Liberal13.2 (4–25)
Perth—WellingtonOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative48.9 (34–63)Liberal38.0 (24–52)
PeterboroughOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.1 (39–67)Conservative35.9 (22–50)
Pickering—BrooklinOntario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 53 (39–67) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.2%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal52.9 (39–67)Conservative36.1 (22–50)
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—VerchèresQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.1%BQ 53 (37–67) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Bloc Québécois 46.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois53.2 (37–67)Liberal30.8 (17–45)
Pierrefonds—DollardQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 57 (44–69) · Con 30 (19–42)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.5 (44–69)Conservative30.1 (19–42)
Pitt Meadows—Maple RidgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.4%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 44 (30–58)	Conservative 47.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Conservative45.5 (31–60)Liberal43.9 (30–58)
Ponoka—DidsburyAlberta · 2025: Con 81.8%Con 74 (60–86) · NDP 16 (5–27)	Conservative 81.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.2 (60–86)NDP15.5 (5–27)
Pontiac—Kitigan ZibiQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 49 (33–64) · Con 26 (13–40)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal48.8 (33–64)Conservative25.9 (13–40)Bloc Québécois14.1 (3–27)
Port Moody—CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 43.5%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 36 (23–50)	Liberal 43.5%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal43.6 (29–58)Conservative36.3 (23–50)NDP16.6 (6–28)
Portage—LisgarManitoba · 2025: Con 69.4%Con 65 (50–78) · Lib 21 (9–34)	Conservative 69.4%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.1 (50–78)Liberal21.1 (9–34)
Portneuf—Jacques-CartierQuebec · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 46 (30–62) · BQ 24 (10–38)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLikely	87%	Likely	Conservative46.1 (30–62)Bloc Québécois23.6 (10–38)Liberal23.1 (10–38)
Prescott—Russell—CumberlandOntario · 2025: Lib 54.8%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 54.8%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (39–68)Conservative35.4 (22–49)
Prince AlbertSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.5%Con 66 (51–80) · Lib 17 (6–30)	Conservative 71.5%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative66.1 (51–80)Liberal17.3 (6–30)NDP12.3 (3–23)
Prince George—Peace River—Northern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 71.1%Con 68 (53–81) · Lib 18 (6–31)	Conservative 71.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative68.4 (53–81)Liberal17.9 (6–31)
ProvencherManitoba · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 62 (47–76) · Lib 24 (12–37)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative62.1 (47–76)Liberal24.0 (12–37)
Québec CentreQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.5%BQ 42 (26–57) · Lib 41 (26–56)	Liberal 49.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois42.3 (26–57)Liberal40.7 (26–56)
Red DeerAlberta · 2025: Con 71.6%Con 65 (51–79) · Lib 22 (10–35)	Conservative 71.6%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative65.4 (51–79)Liberal22.1 (10–35)
Regina—LewvanSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 50%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative45.9 (31–61)Liberal40.4 (26–55)
Regina—Qu'AppelleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 64%Con 59 (44–73) · Lib 25 (12–38)	Conservative 64%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative59.2 (44–73)Liberal24.9 (12–38)NDP10.8 (2–21)
Regina—WascanaSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 42 (26–56)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative46.1 (31–61)Liberal41.5 (26–56)
RepentignyQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.2%BQ 51 (36–66) · Lib 30 (17–44)	Bloc Québécois 42.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois51.4 (36–66)Liberal29.9 (17–44)Conservative12.1 (3–23)
Richmond Centre—MarpoleBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative49.7 (35–64)Liberal40.9 (27–55)
Richmond East—StevestonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 44 (30–59)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal46.3 (32–60)Conservative44.4 (30–59)
Richmond Hill SouthOntario · 2025: Con 52.3%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 52.3%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative50.7 (36–65)Liberal39.9 (26–54)
Richmond—ArthabaskaQuebec · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 35 (20–50) · BQ 33 (18–48)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Conservative35.4 (20–50)Bloc Québécois32.5 (18–48)Liberal25.3 (12–40)
Riding MountainManitoba · 2025: Con 67.8%Con 63 (48–76) · Lib 20 (9–33)	Conservative 67.8%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative63.2 (48–76)Liberal20.2 (9–33)
Rimouski—La MatapédiaQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 54 (38–70) · Lib 28 (14–44)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	93%	Likely	Bloc Québécois54.3 (38–70)Liberal28.3 (14–44)Conservative11.1 (1–23)
Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 41 (27–55) · BQ 38 (24–52)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal41.1 (27–55)Bloc Québécois37.8 (24–52)Conservative14.5 (5–25)
Rivière-du-NordQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.8%BQ 51 (35–65) · Lib 24 (12–38)	Bloc Québécois 43.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois50.6 (35–65)Liberal24.4 (12–38)Conservative17.8 (7–30)
Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec · 2025: NDP 41%NDP 44 (20–59) · Lib 25 (13–40)	NDP 41%	NDPNDPLikely	83%	Likely	NDP43.9 (20–59)Liberal24.6 (13–40)Bloc Québécois22.0 (10–37)
Saanich—Gulf IslandsBritish Columbia · 2025: Grn 39.1%Grn 49 (21–66) · Lib 25 (12–44)	Green 39.1%	GrnGreenLikely	85%	Likely	Green49.2 (21–66)Liberal25.3 (12–44)Conservative19.7 (8–36)
Sackville—Bedford—PrestonNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 62%Lib 59 (45–73) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 62%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.2 (45–73)Conservative28.4 (15–41)
Saint John—KennebecasisNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 58.1%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 34 (21–48)	Liberal 58.1%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (39–68)Conservative34.1 (21–48)
Saint John—St. CroixNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 38 (23–52)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative49.4 (34–63)Liberal37.5 (23–52)
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 51 (35–66) · Lib 26 (13–41)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois50.7 (35–66)Liberal26.0 (13–41)Conservative15.0 (4–28)
Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.3%BQ 51 (36–66) · Lib 27 (14–41)	Bloc Québécois 44.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois51.4 (36–66)Liberal26.8 (14–41)Conservative13.5 (4–25)
Saint-LaurentQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.9%Lib 55 (42–67) · Con 28 (16–39)	Liberal 58.9%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal55.1 (42–67)Conservative27.6 (16–39)
Saint-Léonard—Saint-MichelQuebec · 2025: Lib 65.3%Lib 61 (47–73) · Con 20 (10–30)	Liberal 65.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.6 (47–73)Conservative19.7 (10–30)
Saint-Maurice—ChamplainQuebec · 2025: Lib 50%Lib 43 (27–59) · BQ 27 (13–43)	Liberal 50%	LibLiberalLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal42.7 (27–59)Bloc Québécois27.2 (13–43)Conservative22.2 (10–36)
Sarnia—Lambton—BkejwanongOntario · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 42 (20–58) · Lib 42 (26–64)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative42.4 (20–58)Liberal41.6 (26–64)
Saskatoon SouthSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 49.3%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 38 (23–52)	Conservative 49.3%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative45.1 (30–60)Liberal37.7 (23–52)NDP12.0 (3–22)
Saskatoon WestSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 47 (32–62) · Lib 25 (12–38)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative47.1 (32–62)Liberal24.5 (12–38)NDP23.4 (11–36)
Saskatoon—UniversitySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative44.6 (30–60)Liberal38.7 (24–53)NDP11.4 (3–21)
Sault Ste. Marie—AlgomaOntario · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 44 (29–58) · Con 40 (26–55)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal43.6 (29–58)Conservative40.2 (26–55)NDP10.2 (2–20)
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley EastOntario · 2025: Lib 57.3%Lib 54 (40–69) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 57.3%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal54.3 (40–69)Conservative34.7 (21–49)
Scarborough NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 60 (44–73) · Con 30 (17–43)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal59.5 (44–73)Conservative29.7 (17–43)
Scarborough SouthwestOntario · 2025: Lib 61.5%Lib 59 (43–74) · Con 26 (13–40)	Liberal 61.5%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.0 (43–74)Conservative25.8 (13–40)
Scarborough—AgincourtOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 40 (25–53)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal51.3 (37–65)Conservative39.5 (25–53)
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.0 (45–74)Conservative28.1 (15–42)
Scarborough—WoburnOntario · 2025: Lib 60.4%Lib 57 (42–71) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 60.4%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal56.8 (42–71)Conservative30.6 (18–45)
Selkirk—Interlake—EastmanManitoba · 2025: Con 60.2%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 28 (16–42)	Conservative 60.2%	ConConservativeSolid	95%	Solid	Conservative55.7 (41–70)Liberal28.4 (16–42)
SheffordQuebec · 2025: BQ 40.1%BQ 47 (31–63) · Lib 31 (17–46)	Bloc Québécois 40.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	83%	Likely	Bloc Québécois46.9 (31–63)Liberal31.4 (17–46)Conservative14.4 (4–27)
SherbrookeQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.3%Lib 44 (28–59) · BQ 33 (18–48)	Liberal 51.3%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal43.5 (28–59)Bloc Québécois32.6 (18–48)Conservative11.0 (1–23)
Sherwood Park—Fort SaskatchewanAlberta · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 58 (44–72) · Lib 28 (15–42)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative58.2 (44–72)Liberal28.4 (15–42)
Simcoe NorthOntario · 2025: Con 48.4%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 48.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Conservative44.0 (29–58)Liberal41.2 (27–55)
Simcoe—GreyOntario · 2025: Con 52.1%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 52.1%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative47.9 (33–62)Liberal40.3 (26–54)
Similkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenayBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 44.1%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 33 (20–48)	Conservative 44.1%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative43.7 (29–58)Liberal33.3 (20–48)NDP17.6 (7–30)
Skeena—Bulkley ValleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.2%Con 46 (32–61) · NDP 41 (26–56)	Conservative 47.2%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative45.9 (32–61)NDP41.4 (26–56)
Souris—Moose MountainSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 84%Con 80 (67–90) · Lib 8 (0–18)	Conservative 84%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative80.3 (67–90)Liberal7.9 (0–18)
South Shore—St. MargaretsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.9%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 54.9%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.8 (39–68)Conservative37.3 (23–51)
South Surrey—White RockBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 50.5%Lib 51 (36–64) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 50.5%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal50.5 (36–64)Conservative41.9 (28–56)
Spadina—HarbourfrontOntario · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 57 (43–71) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal57.4 (43–71)Conservative25.9 (13–39)NDP11.2 (3–21)
St. Albert—Sturgeon RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 63.9%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 31 (17–45)	Conservative 63.9%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative56.0 (41–70)Liberal31.1 (17–45)
St. Boniface—St. VitalManitoba · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 59 (44–72) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.6 (44–72)Conservative27.6 (15–41)
St. CatharinesOntario · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal48.7 (34–63)Conservative36.8 (23–51)
St. John's EastNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 62.3%Lib 56 (41–71) · Con 22 (10–36)	Liberal 62.3%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.2 (41–71)Conservative22.4 (10–36)NDP17.1 (6–29)
Stormont—Dundas—GlengarryOntario · 2025: Con 56.3%Con 52 (37–67) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 56.3%	ConConservativeLikely	83%	Likely	Conservative52.1 (37–67)Liberal36.9 (23–51)
SudburyOntario · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 48 (34–62) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal48.0 (34–62)Conservative35.1 (22–49)NDP11.7 (3–22)
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltOntario · 2025: Con 48.3%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 36 (23–50)	Conservative 48.3%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative45.9 (32–60)Liberal36.4 (23–50)NDP11.5 (3–22)
Surrey CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48%Lib 46 (32–60) · Con 41 (28–55)	Liberal 48%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal46.1 (32–60)Conservative41.3 (28–55)
Surrey NewtonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 42 (28–57)	Liberal 49.5%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal47.6 (33–62)Conservative42.4 (28–57)
Swift Current—Grasslands—KindersleySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 82%Con 78 (64–89) · Lib 10 (1–21)	Conservative 82%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative77.8 (64–89)Liberal9.7 (1–21)
Sydney—Glace BayNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal51.6 (37–66)Conservative35.8 (22–50)
Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 51 (35–66) · NDP 29 (14–43)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal50.6 (35–66)NDP29.0 (14–43)Conservative14.5 (4–27)
Terra Nova—The PeninsulasNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 48%Con 47 (32–62) · Lib 42 (28–57)	Conservative 48%	ConConservativeLeans	62%	Leans	Conservative47.0 (32–62)Liberal42.3 (28–57)
TerrebonneQuebec · 2025: Lib 38.7%BQ 43 (28–58) · Lib 34 (20–50)	Liberal 38.7%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	71%	Leans	Bloc Québécois43.4 (28–58)Liberal34.3 (20–50)Conservative14.9 (4–27)
ThornhillOntario · 2025: Con 66.4%Con 63 (48–76) · Lib 29 (16–43)	Conservative 66.4%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative62.5 (48–76)Liberal28.9 (16–43)
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverOntario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 39 (24–53)	Liberal 48.5%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal44.8 (30–59)Conservative38.6 (24–53)NDP10.5 (2–21)
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 32 (18–45)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal51.0 (36–65)Conservative31.7 (18–45)NDP10.9 (2–21)
Thérèse-De BlainvilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.8%Lib 41 (27–55) · BQ 37 (23–51)	Liberal 45.8%	LibLiberalToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Liberal40.8 (27–55)Bloc Québécois37.3 (23–51)Conservative15.7 (6–27)
Tobique—MactaquacNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 32 (19–46)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative55.1 (40–69)Liberal32.4 (19–46)
Toronto CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 64.3%Lib 60 (45–74) · NDP 17 (6–29)	Liberal 64.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.1 (45–74)NDP17.1 (6–29)Conservative16.6 (6–29)
Toronto—DanforthOntario · 2025: Lib 66.6%Lib 60 (45–74) · NDP 18 (7–30)	Liberal 66.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.3 (45–74)NDP18.2 (7–30)Conservative15.6 (5–28)
Toronto—St. Paul'sOntario · 2025: Lib 61.9%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 29 (16–42)	Liberal 61.9%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal60.0 (45–74)Conservative28.5 (16–42)
Trois-RivièresQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 37 (22–52) · BQ 33 (18–48)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Liberal36.5 (22–52)Bloc Québécois32.7 (18–48)Conservative23.4 (10–37)
University—RosedaleOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 60 (44–75) · Con 19 (7–32)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.9 (44–75)Conservative19.0 (7–32)NDP13.7 (3–25)
Vancouver CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 28 (16–41)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (38–66)Conservative28.3 (16–41)NDP14.7 (5–26)
Vancouver EastBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 43.6%NDP 47 (31–62) · Lib 32 (19–47)	NDP 43.6%	NDPNDPLikely	84%	Likely	NDP47.3 (31–62)Liberal31.9 (19–47)Conservative15.4 (6–27)
Vancouver Fraserview—South BurnabyBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 52.3%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 32 (20–46)	Liberal 52.3%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal51.9 (37–66)Conservative32.2 (20–46)NDP11.1 (2–21)
Vancouver GranvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.4 (44–73)Conservative26.8 (14–40)
Vancouver KingswayBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 37.2%NDP 41 (25–55) · Lib 33 (19–48)	NDP 37.2%	NDPNDPLeans	68%	Leans	NDP40.6 (25–55)Liberal33.3 (19–48)Conservative21.9 (11–35)
Vancouver QuadraBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 62 (48–75) · Con 27 (15–40)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal62.3 (48–75)Conservative27.4 (15–40)
VaudreuilQuebec · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 52 (39–65) · Con 22 (11–33)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal52.4 (39–65)Conservative21.6 (11–33)Bloc Québécois19.0 (9–30)
Vaughan—WoodbridgeOntario · 2025: Con 60%Con 58 (44–72) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 60%	ConConservativeLikely	93%	Likely	Conservative58.3 (44–72)Liberal34.1 (20–48)
Vernon—Lake Country—MonasheeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 51 (35–65) · Lib 39 (24–54)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative50.5 (35–65)Liberal38.8 (24–54)
VictoriaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 52 (37–68) · NDP 27 (13–40)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (37–68)NDP26.5 (13–40)Conservative14.2 (4–27)
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-SoeursQuebec · 2025: Lib 63.7%Lib 59 (45–71) · Con 18 (8–28)	Liberal 63.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal58.8 (45–71)Conservative18.0 (8–28)Bloc Québécois11.9 (4–21)
VimyQuebec · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 48 (34–61) · Con 23 (12–34)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal47.6 (34–61)Conservative23.1 (12–34)Bloc Québécois21.4 (11–33)
WaterlooOntario · 2025: Lib 59.5%Lib 55 (41–69) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 59.5%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal55.2 (41–69)Conservative28.8 (16–43)
Wellington—Halton Hills NorthOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 47 (32–60) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative46.5 (32–60)Liberal41.1 (27–55)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky CountryBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.7%Lib 57 (43–70) · Con 31 (18–44)	Liberal 59.7%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal57.1 (43–70)Conservative31.0 (18–44)
WhitbyOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 40 (26–55)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal49.6 (35–64)Conservative40.2 (26–55)
WillowdaleOntario · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal50.6 (36–65)Conservative40.5 (26–55)
Windsor WestOntario · 2025: Con 39%Con 35 (21–50) · NDP 34 (18–49)	Conservative 39%	ConConservativeToss-up	47%	Toss-up	Conservative35.2 (21–50)NDP34.4 (18–49)Liberal24.8 (13–39)
Windsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 44 (30–58) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Conservative43.9 (30–58)Liberal40.6 (27–55)
Winnipeg CentreManitoba · 2025: NDP 39.4%NDP 45 (28–59) · Lib 31 (18–46)	NDP 39.4%	NDPNDPLikely	81%	Likely	NDP44.9 (28–59)Liberal31.1 (18–46)Conservative17.8 (7–31)
Winnipeg NorthManitoba · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 31 (17–45)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal55.1 (40–69)Conservative30.8 (17–45)
Winnipeg SouthManitoba · 2025: Lib 59%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 59%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal56.4 (41–70)Conservative31.6 (18–46)
Winnipeg South CentreManitoba · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 25 (12–38)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.5 (46–74)Conservative24.5 (12–38)
Winnipeg WestManitoba · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal53.8 (39–68)Conservative35.5 (22–50)
YellowheadAlberta · 2025: Con 69.1%Con 63 (49–76) · Lib 25 (13–39)	Conservative 69.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative62.9 (49–76)Liberal25.2 (13–39)
York CentreOntario · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLikely	83%	Likely	Conservative53.1 (38–67)Liberal38.3 (24–53)
York South—Weston—EtobicokeOntario · 2025: Lib 55.3%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 55.3%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal51.9 (37–66)Conservative36.0 (22–50)
Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.5%Con 73 (59–85) · Lib 13 (3–24)	Conservative 77.5%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.7 (59–85)Liberal12.7 (3–24)
York—DurhamOntario · 2025: Con 55.6%Con 54 (39–67) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 55.6%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative53.5 (39–67)Liberal35.1 (21–49)
YukonYukon · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 49 (30–67) · Con 35 (17–53)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal48.8 (30–67)Conservative35.4 (17–53)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 9 Dec 2025, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Liberal	41.2	39.6–42.8	−0.1
Conservative	37.9	35.0–40.9	+0.1
NDP	8.8	6.8–10.8	+0.1
Bloc Québécois	7.2	5.9–8.5	0
Green	2.8	1.9–3.7	0
People’s Party	1.4	0.9–1.8	−0.1
Others	1.0		0

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 9 Dec 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 5 Dec 2025, in points.

Polls included (91)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
9 Dec	Abacus DataNew	1,500	±2.5	41	41	9	6	2	1
5 Dec	Nanos Research	1,042	±3.0	39.1	37.8	9.5	6.3	3.3	1.8
1 Dec	Abacus Data	1,802	±2.3	41	41	7	7	2	1
1 Dec	Angus Reid	4,025	±1.5	40	37	10	9	3	–
1 Dec	Innovative Research	1,846	–	39	38	9	8	4	–
30 Nov	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	41	36	12	5	2	2
30 Nov	Léger	1,579	±2.5	43	36	8	9	4	–
28 Nov	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	41.9	38.2	8.4	7.3	2.7	1.2
27 Nov	Abacus Data	2,421	±2.0	41	40	8	7	2	1
21 Nov	Nanos Research	1,053	±3.0	41.9	37.2	9.1	7	2.7	1.6

81 earlier polls

Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
18 Nov	Kolosowski Strategies	890	±3.2	44	44	3	6	1	1
14 Nov	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	40.2	38.2	10.1	7.4	2.2	1.3
11 Nov	Ekos	1,191	±2.8	44.1	33.2	10.7	5.4	3.3	1.8
8 Nov	Abacus Data	1,244	±1.8	40	23	9	8	–	–
8 Nov	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	36	10	6	2	1
8 Nov	Mainstreet Research	1,084	±3.0	44	40	5	6	2	2
7 Nov	Angus Reid	2,038	±1.5	40	38	9	8	3	–
7 Nov	Nanos Research	1,122	±2.9	40	36.8	11.4	7.5	2.3	1.2
6 Nov	Abacus Data	1,916	±2.2	40	41	8	7	2	1
4 Nov	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.4	35.5	8	5.8	3.5	2
4 Nov	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	38	11	5	2	1
3 Nov	Léger	1,585	±2.5	43	38	7	7	4	–
31 Oct	Nanos Research	924	±3.0	39.3	37.1	12.5	6.6	1.7	1.5
29 Oct	Abacus Data	2,922	±1.8	40	42	8	6	3	1
24 Oct	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.5	32.4	12.4	5.7	3	2
24 Oct	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	39.4	37	12.7	7	1.6	1.2
17 Oct	Nanos Research	1,021	±3.1	39.3	36.6	12.1	6.8	2.8	1.3
15 Oct	Abacus Data	4,501	±1.5	40	41	8	7	3	1
15 Oct	Pallas Data	1,206	±2.8	41	37	11	6	2	2
10 Oct	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	38.5	36.8	12.2	6.5	3.9	1.4
5 Oct	Léger	1,562	±2.5	44	38	6	7	3	–
3 Oct	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	39.1	37.9	11.5	6.2	4	0.9
1 Oct	Abacus Data	1,504	±2.5	40	41	7	7	3	2
26 Sep	Nanos Research	1,030	±3.1	40.7	36.6	11.9	4.8	4.3	1.2
22 Sep	Angus Reid	1,570	±2.0	38	41	10	8	2	1
21 Sep	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	37	10	5	2	2
19 Sep	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	40.6	35.7	11.6	5.5	3.2	2.2
17 Sep	Abacus Data	2,230	±2.1	40	40	8	7	3	1
12 Sep	Ekos	1,614	±2.4	42	34	12.6	5.2	3	2
12 Sep	Nanos Research	1,049	±3.0	41.8	34.5	12.8	5.5	2.5	1.9
12 Sep	Research Co.	1,003	±3.1	43	38	8	6	2	1
8 Sep	Ipsos	1,001	±3.8	43	39	7	7	1	2
7 Sep	Léger	1,592	±2.5	47	38	6	6	2	–
5 Sep	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	42.7	32.9	12.8	5.2	3.5	1.6
4 Sep	Angus Reid	3,656	±1.5	38	40	10	8	2	1
2 Sep	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	43	40	6	7	2	1
1 Sep	Mainstreet Research	1,008	±3.1	42.3	40.4	8.4	5	1.2	1.6
29 Aug	Nanos Research	1,009	±3.1	43.3	32.4	12.7	6.2	2.9	1.6
27 Aug	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	10	5	2	2
22 Aug	Nanos Research	1,045	±3.0	43.7	34.2	10.7	5.5	3.3	1.6
19 Aug	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	39	41	7	7	2	2
15 Aug	Nanos Research	1,050	±3.0	44.4	32.4	11.6	4.9	3.2	2.8
8 Aug	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	11	6	3	1
8 Aug	Nanos Research	1,094	±3.0	44.8	31.9	11.5	6.1	2.6	2.5
7 Aug	Abacus Data	1,686	±2.4	43	40	8	6	1.5	1.5
4 Aug	Léger	1,617	±2.4	46	36	6	7	3	–
1 Aug	Nanos Research	1,096	±3.0	43.7	32.5	12	5.3	2.5	3
1 Aug	Pallas Data	1,301	±2.7	43.2	37.6	7.5	6.3	2.2	–
28 Jul	Innovative Research	3,732	–	41	39	9	7	4	–
25 Jul	Liaison Strategies	–	–	43	36	10	6	3	1
25 Jul	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	43.6	33.5	12.1	5.9	2.3	1.8
18 Jul	Nanos Research	1,026	±3.1	44.3	34	10.3	6.6	2.3	2
15 Jul	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	43	40	7	6	3	1
14 Jul	Ekos	1,817	±2.3	43.2	30.5	13	5.5	3.5	3.6
11 Jul	Nanos Research	1,047	±3.0	44.5	33.8	11.1	5.9	2.1	1.9
6 Jul	Léger	1,546	±2.5	48	35	7	6	3	–
4 Jul	Liaison Strategies	–	–	46	35	9	6	2	1
4 Jul	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	45.1	32.6	11.5	6.2	1.8	1.8
2 Jul	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	40	9	7	2	2
2 Jul	Research Co.	1,001	±3.1	47	37	6	6	2	1
30 Jun	Innovative Research	4,029	–	43	38	8	6	3	–
27 Jun	Nanos Research	1,076	±3.0	44.5	31.4	12.8	5.9	2.5	1.7
26 Jun	Mainstreet Research	1,168	±2.9	47	38	6	3	3	1
20 Jun	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	38	11	6	3	1
20 Jun	Nanos Research	1,090	±3.0	45.2	30.8	12.2	6.1	2.9	1.5
19 Jun	Abacus Data	1,500	±1.9	42	39	7	6	3	1
13 Jun	Nanos Research	1,080	±3.0	44.2	32.2	11.4	6.3	3.2	1.7
6 Jun	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	39	9	6	2	1
6 Jun	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	42.6	32.8	12	6.5	3.9	1.3
5 Jun	Abacus Data	2,585	±1.9	42	39	8	6	3	1
4 Jun	Ekos	1,529	±2.5	43.9	32	12.7	5.2	3	3
30 May	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	41.7	36.4	10.5	6.5	3.4	1.1
30 May	Spark Insights	3,450	–	41	40	8	7	–	–
23 May	Liaison Strategies	–	–	44	39	8	6	1	1
23 May	Nanos Research	1,127	±3.0	40.4	38.6	9.8	5.9	3.7	1.3
22 May	Innovative Research	2,517	–	42	39	8	6	3	–
21 May	Abacus Data	2,273	±2.1	41	40	8	7	3	1
16 May	Nanos Research	1,127	±2.9	41.4	39.6	8.5	4.7	3.9	1.3
9 May	Liaison Strategies	–	–	45	40	7	6	1	1
9 May	Nanos Research	1,259	±2.8	41.5	40.5	7.8	5.1	3.3	1.3
2 May	Nanos Research	1,297	±2.7	41.8	39.2	7.9	5.8	3.2	1.3

National polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s federal polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2025 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 172 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 199 projections, to 2 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	LibLiberal	ConConservative	NDPNDP	BQBloc Québécois	GrnGreen	LibLiberal maj.	ConConservative maj.	Minority
3 Oct 2026	Liaison Strategies	226	82	13	20	2	92%	2%	6%
2 Oct 2026	Nanos Research	225	83	13	20	2	92%	2%	7%
26 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	223	85	13	20	2	91%	2%	7%
25 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	222	86	12	20	2	91%	2%	7%
23 Sep 2026	Abacus Data	220	88	12	21	2	90%	2%	8%
19 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	221	87	13	20	2	90%	2%	8%
18 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	221	88	12	20	2	90%	2%	8%
12 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	219	88	13	21	2	90%	2%	8%

192 earlier projections

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 343 ridings. The national polling average sets each party’s change since that election. A rule fitted on the federal elections since 2006 turns it into a change for each of seven regions, and polls of a single province or region, from the pollsters’ own releases, correct that rule where they exist. Each riding moves with its region, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2025 share, and the ridings are adjusted so that each region reproduces its estimate. The Bloc Québécois runs only in Quebec. A first-term member running again gains a few points and an open seat loses a few; in Quebec, ridings with more French speakers move further in the direction of the province-wide change; members who crossed the floor take a small part of their 2025 vote to their new party.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a national polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from the six federal elections from 2008 to 2025. Tested on each of those elections with only the polls published before it, and with every size fitted on the other five, the projected leader won 82.9% of 1,973 ridings, and 90% ranges contained 93.6% of riding vote shares. Local campaigns, candidates other than incumbents and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2025 election results