Federal seat projection, 19 December 2025

As of 19 December 2025, from 97 polls

No federal election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the national polling average since that election, adjusted region by region with provincial and regional polls, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 3 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 19 December 2025.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the Liberals win a median of 164 seats (90% range 100–229) and a majority in 41%; the Conservatives 135 seats (90% range 74–194) and a majority in 14%; the Bloc Québécois 32 seats (90% range 18–46); the NDP 10 seats (90% range 2–18); the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–3). No party wins a majority in 45%.

Liberal majority
41%
Most seats in 67% of simulations
Conservative majority
14%
Most seats in 33% of simulations
No majority
45%
34 ridings with no party above 60%

172 for a majority

Liberal

164 seats (100–229) · majority 41%

Conservative

135 seats (74–194) · majority 14%

NDP

10 seats (2–18)

Bloc Québécois

32 seats (18–46)

Green

2 seats (0–3)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 172 of 343 seats. People’s Party and Other win no seat in the median simulation; People’s Party wins at least one in <1%, Other wins at least one in <1%.

Seat distributions

172 for a majority

Liberal

Median 164, 90%: 100–229

Majority in 41%

Most frequent: 164 (1.5%)

Conservative

Median 135, 90%: 74–194

Majority in 14%

Most frequent: 135 (1.4%)

NDP

Median 10, 90%: 2–18

Most frequent: 10 (8.9%)

Bloc Québécois

Median 32, 90%: 18–46

Most frequent: 29 (5.5%)

Green

Median 2, 90%: 0–3

Most frequent: 2 (52.9%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Liberal	164	100 to 229	164 seats, 1.5% of simulations	41%
Conservative	135	74 to 194	135 seats, 1.4% of simulations	14%
NDP	10	2 to 18	10 seats, 8.9% of simulations	0%
Bloc Québécois	32	18 to 46	29 seats, 5.5% of simulations	0%
Green	2	0 to 3	2 seats, 52.9% of simulations	0%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 172 of 343 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Nanos Research, fieldwork to 19 Dec 2025, 1,059 respondentsLiberal 36.3 · Conservative 35.6 · NDP 11.4 · Bloc Québécois 7.1 · Green 3.5 · People’s Party 1.8

Change since 15 Dec 2025

Median seats: Liberal −1, Conservative +1, NDP 0, Bloc Québécois +1, Green 0.
Chance of a majority, in points: Liberal −1, Conservative 0; no majority +1.
Projected leader changed in 1 riding: Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie (Liberal to Bloc Québécois).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn
Solid 95%+	48	35	0	10	0
Likely 80–95%	55	36	4	12	1
Leans 60–80%	46	55	2	4	1
Toss-up <60%	34

Canada

Ottawa–Gatineau

Vancouver

Greater Toronto

Montreal

Calgary

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Seats changing hands

Won in 2025Projected

LibLiberal169

ConConservative144

NDPNDP7

BQBloc Québécois22

GrnGreen1

LibLiberal149

ConConservative126

NDPNDP6

BQBloc Québécois26

GrnGreen2

Toss-upToss-up34

Ridings by party: won in 2025, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2025	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
LibLiberal	169	149	4	3	21
ConConservative	144	126	–	6	12
NDPNDP	7	6	–	–	1
BQBloc Québécois	22	26	4	–	–
GrnGreen	1	2	1	–	–
Toss-up		34

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2025 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2025 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Liberal172nd-best riding: Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou, 43% · chance of a majority 41%

Conservative172nd-best riding: Willowdale, 29% · chance of a majority 14%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 172 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 172nd-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

By region

2025 vote projected vote or median seats 90% range of seats 2025 seats

British Columbia43 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		39.5%, 2025: 41.2%		19 seats, 90% range 7 to 30; 2025: 19
Lib		39.3%, 2025: 41.8%		19−1 seats, 90% range 8 to 31; 2025: 20
NDP		14.7%, 2025: 13.0%		4+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 7; 2025: 3
Grn		5.4%, 2025: 3.0%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
PPC		1.1%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Alberta37 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		57.6%, 2025: 63.6%		30−4 seats, 90% range 22 to 35; 2025: 34
Lib		28.3%, 2025: 27.9%		5+3 seats, 90% range 1 to 13; 2025: 2
NDP		9.6%, 2025: 6.3%		2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
PPC		1.7%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		1.5%, 2025: 0.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Manitoba and Saskatchewan28 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Con		50.6%, 2025: 54.9%		18−2 seats, 90% range 14 to 21; 2025: 20
Lib		32.2%, 2025: 34.1%		8+1 seats, 90% range 5 to 13; 2025: 7
NDP		12.6%, 2025: 9.4%		2+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 1
Grn		1.9%, 2025: 0.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.4%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Ontario122 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		45.4%, 2025: 49.2%		68−2 seats, 90% range 35 to 100; 2025: 70
Con		40.8%, 2025: 43.8%		52 seats, 90% range 19 to 84; 2025: 52
NDP		8.2%, 2025: 4.8%		1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 4; 2025: 0
Grn		2.7%, 2025: 1.1%		1+1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 0
PPC		1.4%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Quebec78 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		36.8%, 2025: 42.6%		37−7 seats, 90% range 23 to 50; 2025: 44
BQ		34.5%, 2025: 27.7%		32+10 seats, 90% range 18 to 46; 2025: 22
Con		20.1%, 2025: 23.3%		8−3 seats, 90% range 3 to 14; 2025: 11
NDP		5.2%, 2025: 4.5%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 1
Grn		2.2%, 2025: 0.9%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.2%, 2025: 0.8%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Atlantic32 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		52.1%, 2025: 55.5%		24 seats, 90% range 16 to 30; 2025: 24
Con		34.5%, 2025: 38.0%		8 seats, 90% range 2 to 16; 2025: 8
NDP		7.8%, 2025: 4.3%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
Grn		2.8%, 2025: 1.1%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0
PPC		1.1%, 2025: 0.7%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Territories3 seats

Party	Vote, %		Seats
Lib		47.4%, 2025: 50.5%		2 seats, 90% range 0 to 3; 2025: 2
NDP		16.7%, 2025: 13.4%		1 seats, 90% range 0 to 1; 2025: 1
Con		31.8%, 2025: 34.6%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 2; 2025: 0
Grn		3.0%, 2025: 1.4%		0 seats, 90% range 0 to 0; 2025: 0

Vote: each party’s share of the valid vote in 2025 and the projection’s estimate for the region now, on one scale (0–70%) for every region. Seats: the median and the middle 90% of the simulations, on each region’s own scale, and the change in the median from the 2025 result. Regions as in the model: Manitoba and Saskatchewan together; the three territories together.

All 343 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.

All 343 ridings: 2025 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abbotsford—South LangleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 43.1%Con 53 (38–66) · Lib 36 (23–51)	Conservative 43.1%	ConConservativeLikely	86%	Likely	Conservative52.6 (38–66)Liberal36.4 (23–51)
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouQuebec · 2025: Lib 41.2%BQ 39 (25–54) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Liberal 41.2%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois39.3 (25–54)Liberal36.8 (23–51)Conservative18.2 (8–30)
Abitibi—TémiscamingueQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.4%BQ 58 (42–73) · Lib 20 (7–34)	Bloc Québécois 49.4%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	98%	Solid	Bloc Québécois58.0 (42–73)Liberal19.7 (7–34)Conservative15.4 (4–28)
Acadie—AnnapolisNova Scotia · 2025: Con 47.7%Lib 48 (32–69) · Con 38 (17–54)	Conservative 47.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal48.2 (32–69)Conservative37.9 (17–54)
Acadie—BathurstNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 67.5%Lib 63 (49–76) · Con 23 (11–36)	Liberal 67.5%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.3 (49–76)Conservative23.1 (11–36)
Ahuntsic-CartiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 61%Lib 55 (41–68) · BQ 22 (11–34)	Liberal 61%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal54.5 (41–68)Bloc Québécois22.3 (11–34)Conservative13.1 (5–23)
Airdrie—CochraneAlberta · 2025: Con 71.2%Con 64 (50–78) · Lib 24 (12–37)	Conservative 71.2%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative64.3 (50–78)Liberal23.9 (12–37)
AjaxOntario · 2025: Lib 56.3%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 35 (21–49)	Liberal 56.3%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal54.1 (39–68)Conservative34.6 (21–49)
Alfred-PellanQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 48 (34–61) · BQ 26 (15–39)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal47.7 (34–61)Bloc Québécois26.3 (15–39)Conservative18.6 (8–30)
Algonquin—Renfrew—PembrokeOntario · 2025: Con 55.7%Con 52 (37–66) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 55.7%	ConConservativeLikely	88%	Likely	Conservative52.4 (37–66)Liberal34.1 (20–48)
Argenteuil—La Petite-NationQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.5%Lib 40 (25–54) · BQ 30 (17–44)	Liberal 47.5%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal39.9 (25–54)Bloc Québécois30.3 (17–44)Conservative21.4 (10–34)
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillOntario · 2025: Con 54.7%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 54.7%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative53.7 (39–68)Liberal37.5 (24–52)
AvalonNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal56.3 (41–70)Conservative31.3 (18–45)
Barrie South—InnisfilOntario · 2025: Con 57.8%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 57.8%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative54.7 (40–69)Liberal34.5 (21–49)
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal40.3 (26–55)
Battle River—CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 82.8%Con 76 (62–88) · Lib 12 (2–24)	Conservative 82.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative76.2 (62–88)Liberal11.6 (2–24)
Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow LakeSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 75.8%Con 71 (56–84) · Lib 17 (6–29)	Conservative 75.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative70.9 (56–84)Liberal17.0 (6–29)
Bay of QuinteOntario · 2025: Lib 50.4%Lib 48 (34–62) · Con 39 (26–54)	Liberal 50.4%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal48.2 (34–62)Conservative39.4 (26–54)
Beaches—East YorkOntario · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 63 (48–78) · Con 20 (7–33)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal63.3 (48–78)Conservative19.9 (7–33)NDP10.4 (1–21)
BeauceQuebec · 2025: Con 59.7%Con 57 (41–72) · BQ 19 (7–33)	Conservative 59.7%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative57.0 (41–72)Bloc Québécois19.3 (7–33)Liberal13.0 (2–26)
Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—HuntingdonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 52 (37–66) · Lib 25 (13–38)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois52.3 (37–66)Liberal24.6 (13–38)Conservative15.5 (6–27)
Beauport—LimoilouQuebec · 2025: Lib 35.6%BQ 35 (21–51) · Lib 31 (17–46)	Liberal 35.6%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois35.1 (21–51)Liberal31.3 (17–46)Conservative24.8 (11–39)
BeauséjourNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal55.9 (41–70)Conservative29.9 (17–44)
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—LévisQuebec · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 44 (28–60) · BQ 26 (12–41)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative44.3 (28–60)Bloc Québécois25.9 (12–41)Liberal22.0 (9–37)
Beloeil—ChamblyQuebec · 2025: BQ 48.3%BQ 57 (42–71) · Lib 26 (13–40)	Bloc Québécois 48.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois56.7 (42–71)Liberal25.6 (13–40)Conservative10.1 (1–20)
Berthier—MaskinongéQuebec · 2025: BQ 35%BQ 42 (27–58) · NDP 23 (5–36)	Bloc Québécois 35%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	88%	Likely	Bloc Québécois42.3 (27–58)NDP22.6 (5–36)Liberal17.1 (6–30)Conservative13.3 (3–25)
BourassaQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.6%Lib 55 (41–68) · BQ 22 (11–33)	Liberal 58.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal54.7 (41–68)Bloc Québécois21.6 (11–33)Conservative13.9 (5–24)
Bow RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 78.9%Con 73 (59–86) · Lib 16 (5–29)	Conservative 78.9%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.2 (59–86)Liberal16.3 (5–29)
Bowmanville—Oshawa NorthOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative46.8 (32–61)Liberal41.7 (28–56)
Brampton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal46.7 (32–61)Conservative41.8 (28–56)
Brampton EastOntario · 2025: Lib 48.6%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 42 (28–57)	Liberal 48.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal45.2 (31–60)Conservative42.1 (28–57)
Brampton North—CaledonOntario · 2025: Lib 49%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 45 (30–59)	Liberal 49%	LibLiberalToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal45.4 (31–60)Conservative44.7 (30–59)
Brampton SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 46 (31–61) · Con 45 (31–59)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal46.1 (31–61)Conservative45.2 (31–59)
Brampton WestOntario · 2025: Con 49.8%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 49.8%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative49.0 (34–63)Liberal42.0 (28–56)
Brampton—Chinguacousy ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal45.1 (31–60)Conservative41.7 (28–56)
Brandon—SourisManitoba · 2025: Con 62.2%Con 58 (44–72) · Lib 20 (9–32)	Conservative 62.2%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative58.3 (44–72)Liberal20.1 (9–32)NDP17.6 (7–29)
Brantford—Brant South—Six NationsOntario · 2025: Con 52.4%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 52.4%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative48.9 (34–63)Liberal37.1 (23–51)
Brome—MissisquoiQuebec · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 43 (28–57) · BQ 34 (20–49)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal42.7 (28–57)Bloc Québécois34.3 (20–49)Conservative15.2 (5–28)
Brossard—Saint-LambertQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.2%Lib 57 (42–69) · BQ 18 (9–29)	Liberal 62.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal56.5 (42–69)Bloc Québécois18.1 (9–29)Conservative17.1 (8–28)
Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 49 (35–63) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLikely	81%	Likely	Conservative49.2 (35–63)Liberal36.0 (22–50)
BurlingtonOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 38 (23–52)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal51.7 (37–66)Conservative37.7 (23–52)
Burlington North—Milton WestOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 42 (27–56)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal49.0 (34–64)Conservative41.6 (27–56)
Burnaby CentralBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 42.2%Lib 41 (28–56) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 42.2%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal41.4 (28–56)Conservative35.1 (22–49)NDP19.8 (8–32)
Burnaby North—SeymourBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.1%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 33 (19–46)	Liberal 59.1%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal56.0 (41–70)Conservative32.6 (19–46)
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—AlnôbakQuebec · 2025: BQ 47%BQ 56 (40–71) · Lib 20 (7–34)	Bloc Québécois 47%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois55.5 (40–71)Liberal19.7 (7–34)Conservative17.1 (6–30)
Calgary CentreAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 46 (31–60) · Con 44 (29–59)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal45.8 (31–60)Conservative43.9 (29–59)
Calgary ConfederationAlberta · 2025: Lib 48.1%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 38 (24–53)	Liberal 48.1%	LibLiberalLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal50.2 (35–64)Conservative38.2 (24–53)
Calgary CrowfootAlberta · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 38 (23–52)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	83%	Likely	Conservative52.6 (38–67)Liberal37.6 (23–52)
Calgary EastAlberta · 2025: Con 60.5%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 32 (18–46)	Conservative 60.5%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative54.0 (39–68)Liberal32.0 (18–46)
Calgary HeritageAlberta · 2025: Con 61.4%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 61.4%	ConConservativeLikely	89%	Likely	Conservative55.1 (40–69)Liberal35.0 (21–49)
Calgary McKnightAlberta · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 45 (31–59) · Lib 44 (30–58)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Conservative45.4 (31–59)Liberal44.1 (30–58)
Calgary MidnaporeAlberta · 2025: Con 65.5%Con 59 (44–73) · Lib 30 (17–44)	Conservative 65.5%	ConConservativeSolid	96%	Solid	Conservative58.9 (44–73)Liberal30.2 (17–44)
Calgary Nose HillAlberta · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative52.9 (38–67)Liberal36.4 (22–51)
Calgary ShepardAlberta · 2025: Con 68%Con 61 (47–75) · Lib 29 (15–42)	Conservative 68%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative61.3 (47–75)Liberal28.5 (15–42)
Calgary Signal HillAlberta · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative55.6 (41–70)Liberal35.0 (21–49)
Calgary SkyviewAlberta · 2025: Con 55.4%Con 53 (38–68) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 55.4%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative53.2 (38–68)Liberal37.8 (24–52)
CambridgeOntario · 2025: Con 48.6%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 48.6%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative47.3 (33–61)Liberal40.2 (26–54)
Cape Breton—Canso—AntigonishNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.6%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 51.6%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.0 (33–63)Conservative40.1 (26–54)
Cape SpearNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 68.3%Lib 65 (50–78) · Con 22 (10–35)	Liberal 68.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.8 (50–78)Conservative21.6 (10–35)
CardiganPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57%Lib 54 (38–69) · Con 35 (20–50)	Liberal 57%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal53.7 (38–69)Conservative34.7 (20–50)
Cariboo—Prince GeorgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 60.3%Con 58 (44–71) · Lib 28 (15–41)	Conservative 60.3%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative58.3 (44–71)Liberal27.8 (15–41)
CarletonOntario · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 42 (28–55)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal49.8 (35–64)Conservative41.5 (28–55)
Carlton Trail—Eagle CreekSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.4%Con 72 (58–85) · Lib 15 (5–27)	Conservative 77.4%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.3 (58–85)Liberal15.3 (5–27)
Central NewfoundlandNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 54.1%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 54.1%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative50.5 (36–65)Liberal40.4 (26–55)
Central NovaNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 48 (34–63) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	72%	Leans	Liberal48.3 (34–63)Conservative39.4 (25–53)
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesQuebec · 2025: Con 42.4%Con 38 (23–53) · Lib 28 (14–43)	Conservative 42.4%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative38.2 (23–53)Liberal28.0 (14–43)Bloc Québécois26.5 (13–41)
CharlottetownPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 64.8%Lib 60 (44–75) · Con 26 (13–40)	Liberal 64.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.8 (44–75)Conservative25.8 (13–40)
Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 54 (38–67) · Lib 32 (19–46)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative53.5 (38–67)Liberal32.2 (19–46)
Chicoutimi—Le FjordQuebec · 2025: Con 34.1%Lib 50 (33–67) · BQ 33 (16–49)	Conservative 34.1%	LibLiberalgain from ConLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal50.2 (33–67)Bloc Québécois32.6 (16–49)Conservative11.1 (1–24)
Chilliwack—HopeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 53 (38–66) · Lib 33 (20–46)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative52.6 (38–66)Liberal32.5 (20–46)
Churchill—Keewatinook AskiManitoba · 2025: Lib 45.5%Lib 43 (29–58) · NDP 33 (18–46)	Liberal 45.5%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal43.4 (29–58)NDP32.6 (18–46)Conservative18.8 (8–31)
Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-NapiervilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.2%Lib 41 (27–54) · BQ 35 (22–48)	Liberal 45.2%	LibLiberalLeans	65%	Leans	Liberal40.5 (27–54)Bloc Québécois35.1 (22–48)Conservative17.8 (8–29)
Cloverdale—Langley CityBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 44 (29–58)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Conservative46.2 (32–60)Liberal43.5 (29–58)
Columbia—Kootenay—Southern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 48 (32–63) · Lib 26 (13–40)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative48.1 (32–63)Liberal25.6 (13–40)NDP20.4 (9–33)
Compton—StansteadQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 40 (26–56) · BQ 32 (18–48)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal40.4 (26–56)Bloc Québécois32.4 (18–48)Conservative17.7 (7–30)
Coquitlam—Port CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 44 (30–58) · Con 42 (27–55)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal44.3 (30–58)Conservative41.5 (27–55)
Courtenay—AlberniBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 39.6%NDP 43 (26–58) · Con 32 (18–47)	NDP 39.6%	NDPNDPLeans	75%	Leans	NDP42.8 (26–58)Conservative31.8 (18–47)Liberal19.3 (8–33)
Cowichan—Malahat—LangfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 37.2%Con 37 (23–52) · NDP 34 (19–48)	Conservative 37.2%	ConConservativeToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Conservative36.9 (23–52)NDP33.9 (19–48)Liberal23.5 (11–38)
Cumberland—ColchesterNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal46.6 (32–61)Conservative40.1 (26–54)
Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—NitassinanQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.7%BQ 53 (37–68) · Con 21 (9–34)	Bloc Québécois 43.7%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois52.5 (37–68)Conservative21.1 (9–34)Liberal20.9 (8–35)
Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—TémiscouataQuebec · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 41 (26–57) · BQ 28 (13–43)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative41.2 (26–57)Bloc Québécois27.6 (13–43)Liberal23.9 (10–39)
Dartmouth—Cole HarbourNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 67.7%Lib 62 (48–76) · Con 20 (8–32)	Liberal 67.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal61.9 (48–76)Conservative19.5 (8–32)NDP11.6 (3–22)
DavenportOntario · 2025: Lib 57.8%Lib 50 (35–65) · NDP 24 (11–37)	Liberal 57.8%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal50.2 (35–65)NDP23.7 (11–37)Conservative19.5 (8–33)
DeltaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 51.8%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 51.8%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal51.1 (37–65)Conservative40.0 (26–54)
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill RiverSaskatchewan · 2025: Lib 65.1%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 21 (9–34)	Liberal 65.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.7 (48–76)Conservative21.1 (9–34)NDP12.1 (3–22)
Don Valley NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 53.2%	LibLiberalLikely	81%	Likely	Liberal51.5 (37–66)Conservative37.9 (24–52)
Don Valley WestOntario · 2025: Lib 62.6%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 31 (17–45)	Liberal 62.6%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal58.4 (44–72)Conservative30.9 (17–45)
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalleQuebec · 2025: Lib 59.4%Lib 54 (41–67) · Con 19 (10–30)	Liberal 59.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal54.4 (41–67)Conservative19.2 (10–30)Bloc Québécois16.9 (8–27)
DrummondQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.8%BQ 51 (35–67) · Lib 21 (8–35)	Bloc Québécois 42.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	95%	Solid	Bloc Québécois51.1 (35–67)Liberal20.9 (8–35)Conservative18.2 (6–31)
Dufferin—CaledonOntario · 2025: Con 60.1%Con 57 (42–70) · Lib 32 (18–45)	Conservative 60.1%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative56.9 (42–70)Liberal31.6 (18–45)
Edmonton CentreAlberta · 2025: Lib 44.3%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 44.3%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal45.1 (31–59)Conservative29.7 (17–44)NDP20.1 (8–33)
Edmonton GatewayAlberta · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 47 (32–62) · Lib 40 (25–54)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative47.3 (32–62)Liberal39.5 (25–54)
Edmonton GriesbachAlberta · 2025: Con 45.5%NDP 41 (23–55) · Con 39 (25–55)	Conservative 45.5%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	54%	Toss-up	NDP40.5 (23–55)Conservative38.7 (25–55)Liberal15.9 (6–28)
Edmonton ManningAlberta · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 35 (21–49)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative45.7 (31–60)Liberal34.7 (21–49)NDP14.1 (4–25)
Edmonton NorthwestAlberta · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative48.9 (34–63)Liberal36.4 (22–50)
Edmonton RiverbendAlberta · 2025: Con 50.2%Lib 51 (34–71) · Con 38 (17–54)	Conservative 50.2%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	76%	Leans	Liberal50.8 (34–71)Conservative37.6 (17–54)
Edmonton SoutheastAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 52.9%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative48.6 (34–63)Liberal37.3 (23–51)
Edmonton StrathconaAlberta · 2025: NDP 47%NDP 55 (36–69) · Con 25 (12–40)	NDP 47%	NDPNDPLikely	94%	Likely	NDP55.0 (36–69)Conservative24.5 (12–40)Liberal15.7 (6–29)
Edmonton WestAlberta · 2025: Con 52.9%Con 46 (32–61) · Lib 41 (26–55)	Conservative 52.9%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative46.1 (32–61)Liberal40.5 (26–55)
Eglinton—LawrenceOntario · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 43 (29–57)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal47.8 (33–62)Conservative43.0 (29–57)
EgmontPrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 48 (32–63) · Con 40 (24–54)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal47.5 (32–63)Conservative39.6 (24–54)
Elgin—St. Thomas—London SouthOntario · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative49.1 (34–63)Liberal37.5 (24–52)
Elmwood—TransconaManitoba · 2025: Con 41.6%NDP 39 (23–52) · Con 38 (24–53)	Conservative 41.6%	NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up	50%	Toss-up	NDP38.5 (23–52)Conservative38.1 (24–53)Liberal18.4 (7–31)
Esquimalt—Saanich—SookeBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.3%Lib 47 (32–62) · Con 26 (13–40)	Liberal 49.3%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal47.4 (32–62)Conservative25.5 (13–40)NDP20.0 (8–33)
EssexOntario · 2025: Con 57.5%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 33 (19–47)	Conservative 57.5%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative53.9 (39–68)Liberal33.1 (19–47)
Etobicoke CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.6%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 41 (27–56)	Liberal 53.6%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal49.7 (35–64)Conservative41.3 (27–56)
Etobicoke NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 52.6%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 52.6%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal50.8 (36–65)Conservative36.6 (23–51)
Etobicoke—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 57.4%Lib 54 (38–68) · Con 36 (22–51)	Liberal 57.4%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal53.5 (38–68)Conservative36.2 (22–51)
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant NorthOntario · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 49 (35–63) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative49.3 (35–63)Liberal39.4 (25–54)
Fleetwood—Port KellsBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 41 (27–54)	Liberal 47.9%	LibLiberalLeans	67%	Leans	Liberal47.1 (33–61)Conservative40.6 (27–54)
FoothillsAlberta · 2025: Con 76.3%Con 70 (55–83) · Lib 19 (7–32)	Conservative 76.3%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative69.7 (55–83)Liberal19.2 (7–32)
Fort McMurray—Cold LakeAlberta · 2025: Con 80.2%Con 74 (60–86) · Lib 15 (5–26)	Conservative 80.2%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative73.8 (60–86)Liberal14.8 (5–26)
Fredericton—OromoctoNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 61.3%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 61.3%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.2 (44–72)Conservative27.5 (15–41)
Fundy RoyalNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 36 (23–51)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative49.0 (34–63)Liberal36.4 (23–51)
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—ListugujQuebec · 2025: BQ 45.8%BQ 57 (40–72) · Lib 28 (14–44)	Bloc Québécois 45.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	95%	Likely	Bloc Québécois56.8 (40–72)Liberal28.4 (14–44)
GatineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.5%Lib 53 (38–67) · BQ 23 (11–36)	Liberal 60.5%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal53.2 (38–67)Bloc Québécois23.0 (11–36)Conservative16.6 (6–28)
Grande PrairieAlberta · 2025: Con 81.7%Con 75 (62–87) · Lib 12 (2–23)	Conservative 81.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative75.1 (62–87)Liberal11.9 (2–23)
GuelphOntario · 2025: Lib 54.7%Lib 49 (34–65) · Con 25 (13–39)	Liberal 54.7%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal49.1 (34–65)Conservative25.0 (13–39)Green16.7 (1–31)
Haldimand—NorfolkOntario · 2025: Con 57.6%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 33 (19–47)	Conservative 57.6%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative53.9 (39–68)Liberal32.6 (19–47)
Haliburton—Kawartha LakesOntario · 2025: Con 56.6%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 35 (21–50)	Conservative 56.6%	ConConservativeLikely	87%	Likely	Conservative53.2 (38–67)Liberal35.2 (21–50)
HalifaxNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 57 (42–72) · NDP 23 (10–36)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal57.1 (42–72)NDP22.9 (10–36)Conservative14.7 (5–26)
Halifax WestNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 65.6%Lib 61 (46–74) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 65.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.5 (46–74)Conservative24.0 (12–37)
Hamilton CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 37.6%NDP 36 (20–51) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Liberal 37.6%	NDPNDPgain from LibToss-up	54%	Toss-up	NDP36.3 (20–51)Liberal33.5 (20–48)Conservative23.5 (12–38)
Hamilton East—Stoney CreekOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 48 (33–62) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative48.0 (33–62)Liberal40.8 (27–55)
Hamilton MountainOntario · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 40 (26–55) · Con 37 (23–52)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal40.3 (26–55)Conservative37.3 (23–52)NDP17.4 (6–29)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasOntario · 2025: Lib 56.1%Lib 53 (38–68) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 56.1%	LibLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal53.3 (38–68)Conservative32.0 (18–46)
Hastings—Lennox and Addington—TyendinagaOntario · 2025: Con 54.3%Con 51 (36–65) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 54.3%	ConConservativeLikely	82%	Likely	Conservative50.6 (36–65)Liberal36.4 (22–51)
Hochelaga—Rosemont-EstQuebec · 2025: Lib 46.1%Lib 41 (28–55) · BQ 33 (20–46)	Liberal 46.1%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal41.0 (28–55)Bloc Québécois32.6 (20–46)NDP13.6 (2–24)
Honoré-MercierQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.2%Lib 57 (43–69) · Con 19 (9–29)	Liberal 60.2%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal56.5 (43–69)Conservative18.9 (9–29)Bloc Québécois16.8 (8–27)
Hull—AylmerQuebec · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 56 (42–69) · BQ 17 (7–29)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal55.9 (42–69)Bloc Québécois17.4 (7–29)Conservative15.1 (6–26)
Humber River—Black CreekOntario · 2025: Lib 55.6%Lib 51 (36–66) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 55.6%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal50.9 (36–66)Conservative32.7 (19–47)NDP10.3 (2–20)
Huron—BruceOntario · 2025: Con 53.2%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 53.2%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative49.7 (35–64)Liberal37.7 (24–52)
Joliette—ManawanQuebec · 2025: BQ 49.3%BQ 58 (42–71) · Lib 23 (11–37)	Bloc Québécois 49.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	98%	Solid	Bloc Québécois57.7 (42–71)Liberal23.3 (11–37)Conservative11.7 (2–22)
JonquièreQuebec · 2025: BQ 40%BQ 49 (32–65) · Con 25 (12–40)	Bloc Québécois 40%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	90%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.7 (32–65)Conservative25.2 (12–40)Liberal18.8 (6–33)
Kamloops—Shuswap—Central RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 50 (35–65) · Lib 36 (22–51)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLikely	80%	Likely	Conservative50.0 (35–65)Liberal35.9 (22–51)
Kamloops—Thompson—NicolaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.5%Con 50 (34–64) · Lib 37 (23–53)	Conservative 51.5%	ConConservativeLeans	78%	Leans	Conservative49.5 (34–64)Liberal37.1 (23–53)
KanataOntario · 2025: Lib 60.8%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 33 (19–47)	Liberal 60.8%	LibLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal56.2 (41–70)Conservative32.9 (19–47)
Kapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukOntario · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLikely	82%	Likely	Conservative46.9 (33–61)Liberal33.0 (20–47)NDP14.9 (5–26)
KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.8%Lib 48 (33–63) · Con 43 (28–58)	Liberal 48.8%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal48.0 (33–63)Conservative43.2 (28–58)
Kenora—KiiwetinoongOntario · 2025: Con 48.7%Con 44 (29–58) · Lib 30 (17–45)	Conservative 48.7%	ConConservativeLikely	80%	Likely	Conservative43.6 (29–58)Liberal30.4 (17–45)NDP19.8 (8–33)
Kildonan—St. PaulManitoba · 2025: Con 47.5%Con 43 (29–58) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 47.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Conservative43.4 (29–58)Liberal42.0 (28–56)
Kingston and the IslandsOntario · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 28 (15–42)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.0 (43–72)Conservative27.6 (15–42)
Kings—HantsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 60.6%Lib 56 (42–70) · Con 30 (17–43)	Liberal 60.6%	LibLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal56.0 (42–70)Conservative29.9 (17–43)
King—VaughanOntario · 2025: Con 61.5%Con 58 (43–72) · Lib 33 (19–47)	Conservative 61.5%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative58.3 (43–72)Liberal32.5 (19–47)
Kitchener CentreOntario · 2025: Con 34.2%Grn 46 (6–64) · Con 28 (15–48)	Conservative 34.2%	GrnGreengain from ConLeans	77%	Leans	Green45.8 (6–64)Conservative28.2 (15–48)Liberal19.6 (8–37)
Kitchener South—HespelerOntario · 2025: Con 47.9%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 47.9%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative46.5 (32–61)Liberal40.2 (26–54)
Kitchener—ConestogaOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 45 (30–59) · Con 45 (30–59)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal44.7 (30–59)Conservative44.5 (30–59)
La Pointe-de-l'ÎleQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.1%BQ 51 (36–65) · Lib 30 (17–43)	Bloc Québécois 43.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois51.1 (36–65)Liberal29.8 (17–43)
La Prairie—AtatekenQuebec · 2025: Lib 44.1%BQ 41 (27–55) · Lib 39 (25–52)	Liberal 44.1%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois41.0 (27–55)Liberal38.9 (25–52)Conservative13.5 (4–24)
LaSalle—Émard—VerdunQuebec · 2025: Lib 50.9%Lib 47 (33–60) · BQ 26 (14–38)	Liberal 50.9%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal46.8 (33–60)Bloc Québécois25.9 (14–38)Conservative11.3 (4–21)NDP10.9 (1–20)
LabradorNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 49 (34–64) · Con 36 (22–51)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal49.3 (34–64)Conservative36.2 (22–51)NDP10.7 (2–21)
Lac-Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 55 (39–70) · Con 20 (7–34)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Bloc Québécois54.8 (39–70)Conservative19.9 (7–34)Liberal18.8 (7–33)
Lac-Saint-LouisQuebec · 2025: Lib 67.6%Lib 64 (51–76) · Con 23 (12–34)	Liberal 67.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal64.0 (51–76)Conservative22.8 (12–34)
LakelandAlberta · 2025: Con 81%Con 74 (60–86) · Lib 12 (3–24)	Conservative 81%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.2 (60–86)Liberal12.3 (3–24)
Lanark—FrontenacOntario · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (27–56)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative46.9 (32–61)Liberal41.6 (27–56)
Langley Township—Fraser HeightsBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 51.4%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 51.4%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative49.8 (35–64)Liberal40.1 (26–54)
Laurentides—LabelleQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.6%BQ 53 (36–68) · Lib 27 (13–42)	Bloc Québécois 44.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	93%	Likely	Bloc Québécois53.1 (36–68)Liberal26.7 (13–42)Conservative11.3 (2–23)
Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec · 2025: Lib 52.1%Lib 45 (31–60) · NDP 21 (5–34)	Liberal 52.1%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal45.3 (31–60)NDP20.8 (5–34)Bloc Québécois20.8 (10–33)
Laval—Les ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.7%Lib 45 (31–57) · Con 30 (18–42)	Liberal 49.7%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal44.5 (31–57)Conservative29.9 (18–42)Bloc Québécois19.2 (9–30)
Leduc—WetaskiwinAlberta · 2025: Con 74.7%Con 68 (53–80) · Lib 17 (7–30)	Conservative 74.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative67.5 (53–80)Liberal17.4 (7–30)
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau LakesOntario · 2025: Con 50%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 50%	ConConservativeLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative46.5 (32–61)Liberal40.3 (26–55)
Les Pays-d'en-HautQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%BQ 43 (28–57) · Lib 36 (22–49)	Liberal 41%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	69%	Leans	Bloc Québécois42.8 (28–57)Liberal35.6 (22–49)Conservative13.9 (4–25)
LethbridgeAlberta · 2025: Con 61.1%Con 57 (41–71) · Lib 31 (17–46)	Conservative 61.1%	ConConservativeLikely	93%	Likely	Conservative56.5 (41–71)Liberal31.4 (17–46)
London CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 56.7%Lib 51 (36–65) · Con 28 (14–41)	Liberal 56.7%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal50.7 (36–65)Conservative27.5 (14–41)NDP14.4 (4–26)
London WestOntario · 2025: Lib 56.2%Lib 51 (37–66) · Con 34 (20–48)	Liberal 56.2%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal51.4 (37–66)Conservative33.8 (20–48)
London—FanshaweOntario · 2025: Con 40.6%Con 37 (23–52) · NDP 35 (19–49)	Conservative 40.6%	ConConservativeToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Conservative37.0 (23–52)NDP34.7 (19–49)Liberal23.6 (11–37)
Long Range MountainsNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 50.3%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 50.3%	ConConservativeLeans	76%	Leans	Conservative49.6 (35–64)Liberal38.0 (24–53)
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyneQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.4%Lib 42 (28–56) · BQ 34 (21–47)	Liberal 49.4%	LibLiberalLeans	73%	Leans	Liberal42.2 (28–56)Bloc Québécois33.8 (21–47)Conservative14.1 (5–25)
Longueuil—Saint-HubertQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%BQ 45 (31–60) · Lib 36 (23–49)	Liberal 41%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	76%	Leans	Bloc Québécois45.4 (31–60)Liberal35.7 (23–49)Conservative10.7 (3–20)
Louis-HébertQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.4%Lib 47 (32–63) · BQ 29 (15–44)	Liberal 55.4%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal47.3 (32–63)Bloc Québécois28.7 (15–44)Conservative17.3 (6–30)
Louis-Saint-Laurent—AkiawenhrahkQuebec · 2025: Con 44.9%Con 40 (24–56) · Lib 27 (12–41)	Conservative 44.9%	ConConservativeLeans	73%	Leans	Conservative40.4 (24–56)Liberal26.5 (12–41)Bloc Québécois26.2 (12–41)
Lévis—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 47.7%Con 43 (27–58) · BQ 27 (13–42)	Conservative 47.7%	ConConservativeLeans	80%	Leans	Conservative43.0 (27–58)Bloc Québécois26.8 (13–42)Liberal22.9 (10–38)
Madawaska—RestigoucheNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (39–68)Conservative35.0 (22–49)
MalpequePrince Edward Island · 2025: Lib 57.6%Lib 52 (37–68) · Con 33 (18–47)	Liberal 57.6%	LibLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (37–68)Conservative32.9 (18–47)
Marc-Aurèle-FortinQuebec · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 47 (34–61) · BQ 29 (17–42)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal47.2 (34–61)Bloc Québécois28.8 (17–42)Conservative17.4 (7–28)
Markham—StouffvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 43 (28–57)	Liberal 51.4%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal47.5 (33–62)Conservative42.5 (28–57)
Markham—ThornhillOntario · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 38 (24–51)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal52.8 (38–67)Conservative37.6 (24–51)
Markham—UnionvilleOntario · 2025: Con 50.7%Lib 50 (33–71) · Con 41 (20–57)	Conservative 50.7%	LibLiberalgain from ConLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal49.7 (33–71)Conservative41.1 (20–57)
Medicine Hat—Cardston—WarnerAlberta · 2025: Con 76.7%Con 70 (55–83) · Lib 18 (6–30)	Conservative 76.7%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative69.6 (55–83)Liberal17.6 (6–30)
Middlesex—LondonOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 48 (33–63) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative48.0 (33–63)Liberal38.0 (24–52)
Milton East—Halton Hills SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 48.3%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 43 (29–57)	Liberal 48.3%	LibLiberalToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal46.8 (32–61)Conservative43.4 (29–57)
MirabelQuebec · 2025: BQ 39.9%BQ 48 (33–63) · Lib 26 (13–40)	Bloc Québécois 39.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	92%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.3 (33–63)Liberal25.8 (13–40)Conservative18.2 (7–30)
Miramichi—Grand LakeNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 46 (32–61) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative46.4 (32–61)Liberal41.1 (27–55)
Mission—Matsqui—AbbotsfordBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 56.7%Con 55 (40–68) · Lib 34 (20–48)	Conservative 56.7%	ConConservativeLikely	91%	Likely	Conservative54.7 (40–68)Liberal33.9 (20–48)
Mississauga CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 53.9%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 38 (24–52)	Liberal 53.9%	LibLiberalLikely	83%	Likely	Liberal52.4 (38–66)Conservative37.6 (24–52)
Mississauga East—CooksvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 50.2%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 50.2%	LibLiberalLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal46.6 (32–61)Conservative42.2 (28–56)
Mississauga—Erin MillsOntario · 2025: Lib 55.7%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 37 (23–52)	Liberal 55.7%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal51.8 (37–66)Conservative37.4 (23–52)
Mississauga—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Lib 52.4%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 41 (27–56)	Liberal 52.4%	LibLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal48.5 (34–63)Conservative41.1 (27–56)
Mississauga—MaltonOntario · 2025: Lib 53.3%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 40 (25–54)	Liberal 53.3%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal49.6 (35–64)Conservative39.5 (25–54)
Mississauga—StreetsvilleOntario · 2025: Lib 51.5%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 51.5%	LibLiberalLeans	65%	Leans	Liberal47.6 (33–62)Conservative41.9 (28–56)
Moncton—DieppeNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal57.9 (43–72)Conservative27.7 (15–41)
Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’AcadieQuebec · 2025: Lib 47.1%BQ 42 (27–56) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Liberal 47.1%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois41.5 (27–56)Liberal41.1 (27–55)Conservative10.2 (2–20)
MontcalmQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.6%BQ 55 (40–69) · Lib 20 (8–32)	Bloc Québécois 46.6%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	97%	Solid	Bloc Québécois54.9 (40–69)Liberal19.5 (8–32)Conservative18.6 (8–31)
Montmorency—CharlevoixQuebec · 2025: Con 34.5%BQ 40 (25–56) · Con 33 (18–47)	Conservative 34.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from ConLeans	68%	Leans	Bloc Québécois40.4 (25–56)Conservative32.5 (18–47)Liberal20.7 (8–35)
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—LaniganSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.9%Con 67 (53–80) · Lib 15 (4–27)	Conservative 71.9%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative67.0 (53–80)Liberal15.0 (4–27)NDP10.5 (2–20)
Mount RoyalQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 48 (35–61) · Con 39 (26–52)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal47.8 (35–61)Conservative39.2 (26–52)
Mégantic—L’Érable—LotbinièreQuebec · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 54 (37–68) · BQ 23 (10–38)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeSolid	95%	Solid	Conservative53.8 (37–68)Bloc Québécois23.3 (10–38)Liberal15.8 (4–30)
Nanaimo—LadysmithBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 33 (19–49) · Grn 25 (7–40)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative33.4 (19–49)Green24.6 (7–40)Liberal21.7 (10–36)NDP18.2 (7–31)
NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.8%Lib 61 (47–75) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 63.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal61.3 (47–75)Conservative29.3 (16–43)
New Tecumseth—GwillimburyOntario · 2025: Con 59.4%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 59.4%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative55.9 (41–70)Liberal33.4 (20–47)
New Westminster—Burnaby—MaillardvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 35.1%Lib 34 (21–48) · NDP 34 (19–47)	Liberal 35.1%	LibLiberalToss-up	44%	Toss-up	Liberal34.3 (21–48)NDP33.5 (19–47)Conservative27.9 (16–41)
Newmarket—AuroraOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 50 (35–63) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	70%	Leans	Conservative49.9 (35–63)Liberal41.4 (27–56)
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-LakeOntario · 2025: Con 49.1%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 41 (27–55)	Conservative 49.1%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative45.7 (31–60)Liberal40.8 (27–55)
Niagara SouthOntario · 2025: Con 47.8%Con 47 (32–60) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 47.8%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative46.5 (32–60)Liberal37.9 (24–52)
Niagara WestOntario · 2025: Con 51.7%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 40 (25–54)	Conservative 51.7%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative48.5 (34–63)Liberal39.6 (25–54)
Nipissing—TimiskamingOntario · 2025: Lib 47.2%Lib 45 (31–60) · Con 39 (25–53)	Liberal 47.2%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal45.2 (31–60)Conservative39.1 (25–53)
North Island—Powell RiverBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 38.7%Con 38 (25–52) · NDP 34 (20–48)	Conservative 38.7%	ConConservativeLeans	60%	Leans	Conservative38.4 (25–52)NDP34.1 (20–48)Liberal21.9 (11–34)
North Vancouver—CapilanoBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 58 (43–73) · Con 31 (17–45)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal58.3 (43–73)Conservative30.6 (17–45)
Northumberland—ClarkeOntario · 2025: Con 49%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 42 (28–56)	Conservative 49%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative46.1 (31–61)Liberal42.0 (28–56)
Northwest TerritoriesNorthwest Territories · 2025: Lib 53.5%Lib 50 (32–68) · Con 29 (12–46)	Liberal 53.5%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal50.4 (32–68)Conservative29.1 (12–46)NDP15.4 (2–30)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—WestmountQuebec · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 60 (48–72) · Con 19 (9–29)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.2 (48–72)Conservative18.7 (9–29)
NunavutNunavut · 2025: NDP 37.3%NDP 38 (11–58) · Lib 36 (18–59)	NDP 37.3%	NDPNDPToss-up	51%	Toss-up	NDP38.2 (11–58)Liberal35.8 (18–59)Conservative22.6 (7–40)
Oakville EastOntario · 2025: Lib 51.1%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 42 (27–56)	Liberal 51.1%	LibLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal47.1 (32–61)Conservative41.8 (27–56)
Oakville WestOntario · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal51.3 (37–65)Conservative40.0 (26–54)
Okanagan Lake West—South KelownaBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.9%Con 49 (34–64) · Lib 41 (27–56)	Conservative 50.9%	ConConservativeLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative49.1 (34–64)Liberal41.4 (27–56)
OrléansOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 63 (48–76) · Con 26 (13–39)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal63.1 (48–76)Conservative25.6 (13–39)
OshawaOntario · 2025: Con 48.2%Con 46 (32–60) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 48.2%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative46.4 (32–60)Liberal36.5 (23–51)NDP11.3 (3–21)
Ottawa CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 62.7%Lib 54 (39–70) · NDP 27 (12–41)	Liberal 62.7%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal54.4 (39–70)NDP26.9 (12–41)Conservative12.5 (3–24)
Ottawa SouthOntario · 2025: Lib 65.2%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 24 (12–38)	Liberal 65.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.7 (45–74)Conservative24.2 (12–38)
Ottawa West—NepeanOntario · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 58 (43–72) · Con 24 (12–37)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal58.0 (43–72)Conservative24.1 (12–37)NDP11.1 (2–21)
Ottawa—Vanier—GloucesterOntario · 2025: Lib 67.4%Lib 61 (46–75) · Con 19 (7–31)	Liberal 67.4%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal61.2 (46–75)Conservative18.7 (7–31)NDP11.7 (3–22)
OutremontQuebec · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 49 (35–63) · BQ 16 (7–27)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.4 (35–63)Bloc Québécois16.3 (7–27)NDP12.0 (2–22)Conservative10.8 (3–20)Green10.6 (1–18)
OxfordOntario · 2025: Con 53.4%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 34 (21–49)	Conservative 53.4%	ConConservativeLikely	84%	Likely	Conservative49.7 (35–64)Liberal34.3 (21–49)
PapineauQuebec · 2025: Lib 53%Lib 50 (36–63) · BQ 21 (10–32)	Liberal 53%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal49.8 (36–63)Bloc Québécois20.8 (10–32)NDP17.5 (4–29)
ParklandAlberta · 2025: Con 75.2%Con 68 (54–81) · Lib 18 (7–30)	Conservative 75.2%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative68.4 (54–81)Liberal18.0 (7–30)
Parry Sound—MuskokaOntario · 2025: Con 52.2%Con 49 (35–63) · Lib 39 (25–53)	Conservative 52.2%	ConConservativeLeans	74%	Leans	Conservative49.0 (35–63)Liberal39.1 (25–53)
Peace River—WestlockAlberta · 2025: Con 77.1%Con 74 (60–86) · Lib 12 (3–24)	Conservative 77.1%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.2 (60–86)Liberal12.3 (3–24)
Perth—WellingtonOntario · 2025: Con 53%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 37 (23–51)	Conservative 53%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative49.6 (35–64)Liberal37.1 (23–51)
PeterboroughOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal52.2 (38–66)Conservative36.5 (23–51)
Pickering—BrooklinOntario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 52 (38–66) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 54.2%	LibLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal52.0 (38–66)Conservative36.7 (23–51)
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—VerchèresQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.1%BQ 55 (39–69) · Lib 30 (16–44)	Bloc Québécois 46.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	93%	Likely	Bloc Québécois54.8 (39–69)Liberal30.1 (16–44)
Pierrefonds—DollardQuebec · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 57 (44–69) · Con 30 (18–41)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.6 (44–69)Conservative29.5 (18–41)
Pitt Meadows—Maple RidgeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.4%Con 46 (31–60) · Lib 43 (29–57)	Conservative 47.4%	ConConservativeToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Conservative45.8 (31–60)Liberal42.9 (29–57)
Ponoka—DidsburyAlberta · 2025: Con 81.8%Con 75 (61–86) · NDP 16 (5–28)	Conservative 81.8%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative74.5 (61–86)NDP15.8 (5–28)
Pontiac—Kitigan ZibiQuebec · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 49 (33–64) · Con 25 (13–39)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal48.7 (33–64)Conservative25.1 (13–39)Bloc Québécois15.1 (4–28)
Port Moody—CoquitlamBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 43.5%Lib 43 (29–57) · Con 37 (23–50)	Liberal 43.5%	LibLiberalLeans	66%	Leans	Liberal42.8 (29–57)Conservative36.5 (23–50)NDP16.5 (6–28)
Portage—LisgarManitoba · 2025: Con 69.4%Con 65 (50–78) · Lib 21 (9–34)	Conservative 69.4%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative64.9 (50–78)Liberal21.0 (9–34)
Portneuf—Jacques-CartierQuebec · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 45 (29–60) · BQ 25 (11–40)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative44.8 (29–60)Bloc Québécois25.1 (11–40)Liberal22.8 (10–38)
Prescott—Russell—CumberlandOntario · 2025: Lib 54.8%Lib 53 (38–67) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 54.8%	LibLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal52.7 (38–67)Conservative36.1 (22–50)
Prince AlbertSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 71.5%Con 66 (51–79) · Lib 17 (6–30)	Conservative 71.5%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative66.0 (51–79)Liberal17.2 (6–30)NDP12.5 (3–23)
Prince George—Peace River—Northern RockiesBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 71.1%Con 69 (53–81) · Lib 17 (6–31)	Conservative 71.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative68.5 (53–81)Liberal17.2 (6–31)
ProvencherManitoba · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 62 (47–76) · Lib 24 (12–37)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative61.9 (47–76)Liberal24.0 (12–37)
Québec CentreQuebec · 2025: Lib 49.5%BQ 44 (28–59) · Lib 40 (25–55)	Liberal 49.5%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Bloc Québécois43.5 (28–59)Liberal39.9 (25–55)
Red DeerAlberta · 2025: Con 71.6%Con 66 (52–79) · Lib 21 (10–34)	Conservative 71.6%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative66.3 (52–79)Liberal21.1 (10–34)
Regina—LewvanSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 50%	ConConservativeLeans	64%	Leans	Conservative45.8 (31–61)Liberal40.4 (26–55)
Regina—Qu'AppelleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 64%Con 59 (44–73) · Lib 25 (12–38)	Conservative 64%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative59.1 (44–73)Liberal24.8 (12–38)NDP11.0 (2–21)
Regina—WascanaSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 50.1%Con 46 (31–61) · Lib 41 (26–56)	Conservative 50.1%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative46.0 (31–61)Liberal41.4 (26–56)
RepentignyQuebec · 2025: BQ 42.2%BQ 53 (38–67) · Lib 29 (16–43)	Bloc Québécois 42.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	93%	Likely	Bloc Québécois52.9 (38–67)Liberal29.3 (16–43)Conservative11.3 (2–21)
Richmond Centre—MarpoleBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 49.6%Con 50 (35–64) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 49.6%	ConConservativeLeans	75%	Leans	Conservative50.1 (35–64)Liberal40.0 (26–54)
Richmond East—StevestonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48.4%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 45 (30–59)	Liberal 48.4%	LibLiberalToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal45.4 (31–59)Conservative44.8 (30–59)
Richmond Hill SouthOntario · 2025: Con 52.3%Con 51 (37–65) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 52.3%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative51.4 (37–65)Liberal39.1 (25–54)
Richmond—ArthabaskaQuebec · 2025: Con 35.5%Con 34 (19–49) · BQ 34 (19–50)	Conservative 35.5%	ConConservativeToss-up	44%	Toss-up	Conservative34.3 (19–49)Bloc Québécois34.1 (19–50)Liberal25.0 (11–40)
Riding MountainManitoba · 2025: Con 67.8%Con 63 (48–76) · Lib 20 (9–33)	Conservative 67.8%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative63.0 (48–76)Liberal20.2 (9–33)NDP10.1 (2–20)
Rimouski—La MatapédiaQuebec · 2025: BQ 46.2%BQ 56 (40–72) · Lib 28 (13–43)	Bloc Québécois 46.2%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois55.9 (40–72)Liberal27.6 (13–43)Conservative10.2 (1–22)
Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.6%Lib 41 (27–54) · BQ 39 (25–53)	Liberal 45.6%	LibLiberalToss-up	53%	Toss-up	Liberal40.5 (27–54)Bloc Québécois39.1 (25–53)Conservative13.8 (5–24)
Rivière-du-NordQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.8%BQ 52 (37–67) · Lib 24 (11–37)	Bloc Québécois 43.8%	BQBloc QuébécoisSolid	95%	Solid	Bloc Québécois52.3 (37–67)Liberal23.9 (11–37)Conservative16.8 (6–29)
Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec · 2025: NDP 41%NDP 43 (18–58) · Lib 25 (12–40)	NDP 41%	NDPNDPLikely	81%	Likely	NDP42.8 (18–58)Liberal24.5 (12–40)Bloc Québécois23.4 (12–39)
Saanich—Gulf IslandsBritish Columbia · 2025: Grn 39.1%Grn 50 (23–67) · Lib 24 (11–42)	Green 39.1%	GrnGreenLikely	87%	Likely	Green50.0 (23–67)Liberal24.2 (11–42)Conservative19.6 (8–36)
Sackville—Bedford—PrestonNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 62%Lib 59 (45–73) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 62%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.2 (45–73)Conservative28.0 (15–41)
Saint John—KennebecasisNew Brunswick · 2025: Lib 58.1%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 34 (20–48)	Liberal 58.1%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal53.6 (39–68)Conservative33.7 (20–48)
Saint John—St. CroixNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 38 (24–52)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative48.9 (34–63)Liberal37.6 (24–52)
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec · 2025: BQ 43.9%BQ 52 (36–68) · Lib 26 (12–40)	Bloc Québécois 43.9%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Bloc Québécois52.4 (36–68)Liberal25.5 (12–40)Conservative14.0 (4–26)
Saint-JeanQuebec · 2025: BQ 44.3%BQ 53 (38–67) · Lib 26 (13–40)	Bloc Québécois 44.3%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	95%	Likely	Bloc Québécois53.0 (38–67)Liberal26.2 (13–40)Conservative12.6 (3–23)
Saint-LaurentQuebec · 2025: Lib 58.9%Lib 55 (42–67) · Con 27 (16–39)	Liberal 58.9%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal55.1 (42–67)Conservative27.0 (16–39)
Saint-Léonard—Saint-MichelQuebec · 2025: Lib 65.3%Lib 61 (47–73) · Con 19 (9–30)	Liberal 65.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.6 (47–73)Conservative19.2 (9–30)Bloc Québécois10.3 (3–19)
Saint-Maurice—ChamplainQuebec · 2025: Lib 50%Lib 42 (26–58) · BQ 29 (14–44)	Liberal 50%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal42.3 (26–58)Bloc Québécois28.7 (14–44)Conservative21.2 (9–35)
Sarnia—Lambton—BkejwanongOntario · 2025: Con 53.1%Con 43 (21–59) · Lib 41 (25–63)	Conservative 53.1%	ConConservativeToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Conservative43.1 (21–59)Liberal40.7 (25–63)
Saskatoon SouthSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 49.3%Con 45 (30–60) · Lib 38 (23–52)	Conservative 49.3%	ConConservativeLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative44.9 (30–60)Liberal37.7 (23–52)NDP12.2 (3–23)
Saskatoon WestSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 52.7%Con 47 (32–62) · Lib 24 (12–38)	Conservative 52.7%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative46.9 (32–62)Liberal24.4 (12–38)NDP23.7 (11–36)
Saskatoon—UniversitySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 48.9%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 39 (24–53)	Conservative 48.9%	ConConservativeLeans	65%	Leans	Conservative44.5 (30–59)Liberal38.6 (24–53)NDP11.6 (3–22)
Sault Ste. Marie—AlgomaOntario · 2025: Lib 47.4%Lib 43 (28–57) · Con 41 (26–55)	Liberal 47.4%	LibLiberalToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal42.7 (28–57)Conservative40.9 (26–55)NDP10.4 (2–21)
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley EastOntario · 2025: Lib 57.3%Lib 53 (39–68) · Con 35 (22–49)	Liberal 57.3%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal53.3 (39–68)Conservative35.3 (22–49)
Scarborough NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 63%Lib 59 (43–72) · Con 30 (17–44)	Liberal 63%	LibLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal58.6 (43–72)Conservative30.4 (17–44)
Scarborough SouthwestOntario · 2025: Lib 61.5%Lib 58 (42–73) · Con 26 (13–41)	Liberal 61.5%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal58.2 (42–73)Conservative26.4 (13–41)
Scarborough—AgincourtOntario · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 50 (36–64) · Con 40 (26–54)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal50.4 (36–64)Conservative40.2 (26–54)
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 59 (45–73) · Con 29 (16–43)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal59.1 (45–73)Conservative28.8 (16–43)
Scarborough—WoburnOntario · 2025: Lib 60.4%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 60.4%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal55.9 (41–70)Conservative31.2 (18–45)
Selkirk—Interlake—EastmanManitoba · 2025: Con 60.2%Con 56 (41–70) · Lib 28 (16–42)	Conservative 60.2%	ConConservativeSolid	95%	Solid	Conservative55.6 (41–70)Liberal28.4 (16–42)
SheffordQuebec · 2025: BQ 40.1%BQ 49 (33–64) · Lib 31 (16–46)	Bloc Québécois 40.1%	BQBloc QuébécoisLikely	86%	Likely	Bloc Québécois48.5 (33–64)Liberal30.8 (16–46)Conservative13.5 (3–26)
SherbrookeQuebec · 2025: Lib 51.3%Lib 43 (27–58) · BQ 34 (20–50)	Liberal 51.3%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal43.0 (27–58)Bloc Québécois34.0 (20–50)Conservative10.2 (1–22)
Sherwood Park—Fort SaskatchewanAlberta · 2025: Con 66.3%Con 59 (45–73) · Lib 27 (14–41)	Conservative 66.3%	ConConservativeSolid	97%	Solid	Conservative59.2 (45–73)Liberal27.3 (14–41)
Simcoe NorthOntario · 2025: Con 48.4%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 40 (26–55)	Conservative 48.4%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative44.6 (30–59)Liberal40.3 (26–55)
Simcoe—GreyOntario · 2025: Con 52.1%Con 49 (34–63) · Lib 39 (25–54)	Conservative 52.1%	ConConservativeLeans	72%	Leans	Conservative48.6 (34–63)Liberal39.4 (25–54)
Similkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenayBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 44.1%Con 44 (29–59) · Lib 33 (19–47)	Conservative 44.1%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative44.0 (29–59)Liberal32.5 (19–47)NDP17.5 (7–30)
Skeena—Bulkley ValleyBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 47.2%Con 46 (32–61) · NDP 41 (25–55)	Conservative 47.2%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative45.8 (32–61)NDP40.7 (25–55)
Souris—Moose MountainSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 84%Con 80 (67–90) · Lib 8 (0–18)	Conservative 84%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative80.2 (67–90)Liberal7.8 (0–18)
South Shore—St. MargaretsNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.9%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 54.9%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal53.8 (39–68)Conservative36.8 (23–51)
South Surrey—White RockBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 50.5%Lib 50 (35–63) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 50.5%	LibLiberalLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal49.7 (35–63)Conservative42.2 (28–56)
Spadina—HarbourfrontOntario · 2025: Lib 60.1%Lib 57 (42–70) · Con 27 (14–40)	Liberal 60.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.5 (42–70)Conservative26.5 (14–40)NDP11.5 (3–21)
St. Albert—Sturgeon RiverAlberta · 2025: Con 63.9%Con 57 (42–71) · Lib 30 (16–44)	Conservative 63.9%	ConConservativeLikely	95%	Likely	Conservative57.0 (42–71)Liberal30.0 (16–44)
St. Boniface—St. VitalManitoba · 2025: Lib 59.8%Lib 58 (44–72) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 59.8%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.4 (44–72)Conservative27.5 (15–41)
St. CatharinesOntario · 2025: Lib 52%Lib 48 (33–62) · Con 38 (23–52)	Liberal 52%	LibLiberalLeans	75%	Leans	Liberal47.8 (33–62)Conservative37.5 (23–52)
St. John's EastNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Lib 62.3%Lib 56 (41–71) · Con 22 (10–35)	Liberal 62.3%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal56.1 (41–71)Conservative22.0 (10–35)NDP17.1 (6–29)
Stormont—Dundas—GlengarryOntario · 2025: Con 56.3%Con 53 (38–67) · Lib 36 (22–50)	Conservative 56.3%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative52.8 (38–67)Liberal36.0 (22–50)
SudburyOntario · 2025: Lib 51.9%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 36 (22–50)	Liberal 51.9%	LibLiberalLeans	77%	Leans	Liberal47.0 (33–61)Conservative35.7 (22–50)NDP11.9 (3–22)
Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltOntario · 2025: Con 48.3%Con 47 (32–61) · Lib 36 (22–49)	Conservative 48.3%	ConConservativeLeans	77%	Leans	Conservative46.5 (32–61)Liberal35.6 (22–49)NDP11.7 (3–22)
Surrey CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 48%Lib 45 (31–59) · Con 42 (28–56)	Liberal 48%	LibLiberalToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Liberal45.1 (31–59)Conservative41.6 (28–56)
Surrey NewtonBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 49.5%Lib 47 (32–61) · Con 43 (29–57)	Liberal 49.5%	LibLiberalLeans	60%	Leans	Liberal46.5 (32–61)Conservative42.7 (29–57)
Swift Current—Grasslands—KindersleySaskatchewan · 2025: Con 82%Con 78 (64–89) · Lib 10 (1–21)	Conservative 82%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative77.6 (64–89)Liberal9.7 (1–21)
Sydney—Glace BayNova Scotia · 2025: Lib 54.6%Lib 52 (37–66) · Con 35 (21–50)	Liberal 54.6%	LibLiberalLikely	85%	Likely	Liberal51.5 (37–66)Conservative35.4 (21–50)
Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High ParkOntario · 2025: Lib 55.8%Lib 50 (35–65) · NDP 30 (14–43)	Liberal 55.8%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal49.6 (35–65)NDP29.5 (14–43)Conservative14.9 (4–27)
Terra Nova—The PeninsulasNewfoundland and Labrador · 2025: Con 48%Con 47 (32–62) · Lib 42 (28–57)	Conservative 48%	ConConservativeLeans	61%	Leans	Conservative46.6 (32–62)Liberal42.3 (28–57)
TerrebonneQuebec · 2025: Lib 38.7%BQ 45 (29–60) · Lib 34 (19–49)	Liberal 38.7%	BQBloc Québécoisgain from LibLeans	76%	Leans	Bloc Québécois44.9 (29–60)Liberal33.7 (19–49)Conservative14.0 (4–26)
ThornhillOntario · 2025: Con 66.4%Con 63 (48–76) · Lib 28 (15–42)	Conservative 66.4%	ConConservativeSolid	98%	Solid	Conservative63.1 (48–76)Liberal28.0 (15–42)
Thunder Bay—Rainy RiverOntario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 44 (30–58) · Con 39 (25–54)	Liberal 48.5%	LibLiberalLeans	62%	Leans	Liberal43.9 (30–58)Conservative39.2 (25–54)NDP10.8 (2–21)
Thunder Bay—Superior NorthOntario · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 32 (19–46)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	88%	Likely	Liberal50.1 (35–64)Conservative32.3 (19–46)NDP11.2 (2–21)
Thérèse-De BlainvilleQuebec · 2025: Lib 45.8%Lib 40 (26–54) · BQ 39 (25–53)	Liberal 45.8%	LibLiberalToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Liberal40.2 (26–54)Bloc Québécois38.7 (25–53)Conservative14.8 (5–26)
Tobique—MactaquacNew Brunswick · 2025: Con 58.8%Con 55 (40–69) · Lib 32 (19–47)	Conservative 58.8%	ConConservativeLikely	92%	Likely	Conservative54.6 (40–69)Liberal32.4 (19–47)
Toronto CentreOntario · 2025: Lib 64.3%Lib 59 (44–73) · NDP 17 (6–29)	Liberal 64.3%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.1 (44–73)NDP17.4 (6–29)Conservative17.1 (6–29)
Toronto—DanforthOntario · 2025: Lib 66.6%Lib 59 (44–73) · NDP 19 (7–31)	Liberal 66.6%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.4 (44–73)NDP18.6 (7–31)Conservative16.1 (6–28)
Toronto—St. Paul'sOntario · 2025: Lib 61.9%Lib 59 (44–73) · Con 29 (16–42)	Liberal 61.9%	LibLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal59.1 (44–73)Conservative29.1 (16–42)
Trois-RivièresQuebec · 2025: Lib 41%Lib 36 (21–52) · BQ 34 (20–49)	Liberal 41%	LibLiberalToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal36.1 (21–52)Bloc Québécois34.2 (20–49)Conservative22.4 (10–36)
University—RosedaleOntario · 2025: Lib 64%Lib 59 (43–74) · Con 20 (7–33)	Liberal 64%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal59.1 (43–74)Conservative19.5 (7–33)NDP14.1 (3–26)
Vancouver CentreBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 55.2%Lib 52 (37–65) · Con 29 (16–42)	Liberal 55.2%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal51.6 (37–65)Conservative28.6 (16–42)NDP14.5 (5–26)
Vancouver EastBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 43.6%NDP 47 (31–61) · Lib 31 (18–46)	NDP 43.6%	NDPNDPLikely	85%	Likely	NDP46.9 (31–61)Liberal31.1 (18–46)Conservative15.5 (6–27)
Vancouver Fraserview—South BurnabyBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 52.3%Lib 51 (37–65) · Con 33 (20–46)	Liberal 52.3%	LibLiberalLikely	90%	Likely	Liberal51.0 (37–65)Conservative32.6 (20–46)NDP11.0 (2–21)
Vancouver GranvilleBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 62.1%Lib 59 (43–72) · Con 27 (15–40)	Liberal 62.1%	LibLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal58.5 (43–72)Conservative27.1 (15–40)
Vancouver KingswayBritish Columbia · 2025: NDP 37.2%NDP 41 (25–55) · Lib 33 (19–47)	NDP 37.2%	NDPNDPLeans	69%	Leans	NDP40.5 (25–55)Liberal32.7 (19–47)Conservative22.1 (11–35)
Vancouver QuadraBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 63.2%Lib 61 (47–74) · Con 28 (15–41)	Liberal 63.2%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal61.4 (47–74)Conservative27.7 (15–41)
VaudreuilQuebec · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 52 (39–65) · Con 21 (10–32)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal52.1 (39–65)Conservative20.9 (10–32)Bloc Québécois20.0 (10–31)
Vaughan—WoodbridgeOntario · 2025: Con 60%Con 59 (44–73) · Lib 33 (20–47)	Conservative 60%	ConConservativeLikely	94%	Likely	Conservative59.0 (44–73)Liberal33.3 (20–47)
Vernon—Lake Country—MonasheeBritish Columbia · 2025: Con 50.4%Con 51 (35–65) · Lib 38 (24–53)	Conservative 50.4%	ConConservativeLeans	79%	Leans	Conservative50.8 (35–65)Liberal37.9 (24–53)
VictoriaBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 54.3%Lib 52 (36–67) · NDP 26 (13–40)	Liberal 54.3%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal51.5 (36–67)NDP26.3 (13–40)Conservative14.4 (4–27)
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-SoeursQuebec · 2025: Lib 63.7%Lib 59 (45–71) · Con 17 (8–27)	Liberal 63.7%	LibLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal58.7 (45–71)Conservative17.4 (8–27)Bloc Québécois12.7 (5–22)
VimyQuebec · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 47 (33–61) · Con 22 (11–34)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal47.4 (33–61)Conservative22.4 (11–34)Bloc Québécois22.4 (12–34)
WaterlooOntario · 2025: Lib 59.5%Lib 54 (40–68) · Con 30 (17–43)	Liberal 59.5%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal54.4 (40–68)Conservative29.5 (17–43)
Wellington—Halton Hills NorthOntario · 2025: Con 50.6%Con 47 (33–61) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 50.6%	ConConservativeLeans	67%	Leans	Conservative47.3 (33–61)Liberal40.2 (26–54)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky CountryBritish Columbia · 2025: Lib 59.7%Lib 56 (42–69) · Con 31 (18–45)	Liberal 59.7%	LibLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal56.0 (42–69)Conservative31.2 (18–45)
WhitbyOntario · 2025: Lib 52.7%Lib 49 (34–63) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 52.7%	LibLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal48.7 (34–63)Conservative40.9 (27–55)
WillowdaleOntario · 2025: Lib 53.4%Lib 50 (35–64) · Con 41 (27–55)	Liberal 53.4%	LibLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal49.6 (35–64)Conservative41.2 (27–55)
Windsor WestOntario · 2025: Con 39%Con 36 (22–50) · NDP 35 (19–49)	Conservative 39%	ConConservativeToss-up	48%	Toss-up	Conservative35.6 (22–50)NDP34.8 (19–49)Liberal23.9 (12–38)
Windsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreOntario · 2025: Con 45.8%Con 45 (30–59) · Lib 40 (26–54)	Conservative 45.8%	ConConservativeLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative44.6 (30–59)Liberal39.7 (26–54)
Winnipeg CentreManitoba · 2025: NDP 39.4%NDP 45 (29–60) · Lib 31 (17–45)	NDP 39.4%	NDPNDPLikely	82%	Likely	NDP45.3 (29–60)Liberal30.9 (17–45)Conservative17.7 (7–31)
Winnipeg NorthManitoba · 2025: Lib 57.9%Lib 55 (40–69) · Con 31 (17–45)	Liberal 57.9%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal55.0 (40–69)Conservative30.7 (17–45)
Winnipeg SouthManitoba · 2025: Lib 59%Lib 56 (41–70) · Con 32 (18–46)	Liberal 59%	LibLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal56.3 (41–70)Conservative31.5 (18–46)
Winnipeg South CentreManitoba · 2025: Lib 63.6%Lib 60 (45–74) · Con 24 (12–38)	Liberal 63.6%	LibLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal60.4 (45–74)Conservative24.3 (12–38)
Winnipeg WestManitoba · 2025: Lib 54.5%Lib 54 (39–68) · Con 35 (22–50)	Liberal 54.5%	LibLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal53.8 (39–68)Conservative35.4 (22–50)
YellowheadAlberta · 2025: Con 69.1%Con 64 (50–77) · Lib 24 (12–37)	Conservative 69.1%	ConConservativeSolid	99%	Solid	Conservative63.8 (50–77)Liberal24.2 (12–37)
York CentreOntario · 2025: Con 54.8%Con 54 (39–68) · Lib 37 (23–52)	Conservative 54.8%	ConConservativeLikely	85%	Likely	Conservative53.7 (39–68)Liberal37.4 (23–52)
York South—Weston—EtobicokeOntario · 2025: Lib 55.3%Lib 51 (36–66) · Con 37 (23–51)	Liberal 55.3%	LibLiberalLikely	82%	Likely	Liberal50.9 (36–66)Conservative36.6 (23–51)
Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan · 2025: Con 77.5%Con 73 (59–85) · Lib 13 (3–24)	Conservative 77.5%	ConConservativeSolid	>99%	Solid	Conservative72.5 (59–85)Liberal12.7 (3–24)
York—DurhamOntario · 2025: Con 55.6%Con 54 (40–68) · Lib 34 (21–48)	Conservative 55.6%	ConConservativeLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative54.1 (40–68)Liberal34.3 (21–48)
YukonYukon · 2025: Lib 53.1%Lib 48 (29–66) · Con 36 (17–53)	Liberal 53.1%	LibLiberalLeans	74%	Leans	Liberal48.0 (29–66)Conservative35.6 (17–53)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 19 Dec 2025, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Liberal	40.5	38.9–42.2	−0.2
Conservative	38.1	35.6–40.6	−0.1
NDP	8.8	7.0–10.7	+0.1
Bloc Québécois	7.4	6.2–8.6	0
Green	2.8	1.8–3.8	0
People’s Party	1.5	1.0–1.9	+0.1
Others	1.0		0

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 19 Dec 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 15 Dec 2025, in points.

Polls included (97)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
19 Dec	Nanos ResearchNew	1,059	±3.0	36.3	35.6	11.4	7.1	3.5	1.8
15 Dec	Ipsos	1,502	±3.1	40	37	9	9	2	2
15 Dec	Pallas Data	1,074	±3.0	40.9	37.7	7.9	8.2	3.6	–
14 Dec	Innovative Research	2,159	–	39	39	10	7	4	–
12 Dec	Mainstreet Research	1,098	±3.0	41	42	6	7	1	1
12 Dec	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	38.5	36	10.8	6.7	3.7	1.9
9 Dec	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	41	9	6	2	1
5 Dec	Nanos Research	1,042	±3.0	39.1	37.8	9.5	6.3	3.3	1.8
1 Dec	Abacus Data	1,802	±2.3	41	41	7	7	2	1
1 Dec	Angus Reid	4,025	±1.5	40	37	10	9	3	–

87 earlier polls

Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	PPC
1 Dec	Innovative Research	1,846	–	39	38	9	8	4	–
30 Nov	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	41	36	12	5	2	2
30 Nov	Léger	1,579	±2.5	43	36	8	9	4	–
28 Nov	Nanos Research	1,084	±3.0	41.9	38.2	8.4	7.3	2.7	1.2
27 Nov	Abacus Data	2,421	±2.0	41	40	8	7	2	1
21 Nov	Nanos Research	1,053	±3.0	41.9	37.2	9.1	7	2.7	1.6
18 Nov	Kolosowski Strategies	890	±3.2	44	44	3	6	1	1
14 Nov	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	40.2	38.2	10.1	7.4	2.2	1.3
11 Nov	Ekos	1,191	±2.8	44.1	33.2	10.7	5.4	3.3	1.8
8 Nov	Abacus Data	1,244	±1.8	40	23	9	8	–	–
8 Nov	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	36	10	6	2	1
8 Nov	Mainstreet Research	1,084	±3.0	44	40	5	6	2	2
7 Nov	Angus Reid	2,038	±1.5	40	38	9	8	3	–
7 Nov	Nanos Research	1,122	±2.9	40	36.8	11.4	7.5	2.3	1.2
6 Nov	Abacus Data	1,916	±2.2	40	41	8	7	2	1
4 Nov	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.4	35.5	8	5.8	3.5	2
4 Nov	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	42	38	11	5	2	1
3 Nov	Léger	1,585	±2.5	43	38	7	7	4	–
31 Oct	Nanos Research	924	±3.0	39.3	37.1	12.5	6.6	1.7	1.5
29 Oct	Abacus Data	2,922	±1.8	40	42	8	6	3	1
24 Oct	Ekos	1,199	±2.8	43.5	32.4	12.4	5.7	3	2
24 Oct	Nanos Research	1,060	±3.0	39.4	37	12.7	7	1.6	1.2
17 Oct	Nanos Research	1,021	±3.1	39.3	36.6	12.1	6.8	2.8	1.3
15 Oct	Abacus Data	4,501	±1.5	40	41	8	7	3	1
15 Oct	Pallas Data	1,206	±2.8	41	37	11	6	2	2
10 Oct	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	38.5	36.8	12.2	6.5	3.9	1.4
5 Oct	Léger	1,562	±2.5	44	38	6	7	3	–
3 Oct	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	39.1	37.9	11.5	6.2	4	0.9
1 Oct	Abacus Data	1,504	±2.5	40	41	7	7	3	2
26 Sep	Nanos Research	1,030	±3.1	40.7	36.6	11.9	4.8	4.3	1.2
22 Sep	Angus Reid	1,570	±2.0	38	41	10	8	2	1
21 Sep	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	43	37	10	5	2	2
19 Sep	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	40.6	35.7	11.6	5.5	3.2	2.2
17 Sep	Abacus Data	2,230	±2.1	40	40	8	7	3	1
12 Sep	Ekos	1,614	±2.4	42	34	12.6	5.2	3	2
12 Sep	Nanos Research	1,049	±3.0	41.8	34.5	12.8	5.5	2.5	1.9
12 Sep	Research Co.	1,003	±3.1	43	38	8	6	2	1
8 Sep	Ipsos	1,001	±3.8	43	39	7	7	1	2
7 Sep	Léger	1,592	±2.5	47	38	6	6	2	–
5 Sep	Nanos Research	1,002	±3.1	42.7	32.9	12.8	5.2	3.5	1.6
4 Sep	Angus Reid	3,656	±1.5	38	40	10	8	2	1
2 Sep	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	43	40	6	7	2	1
1 Sep	Mainstreet Research	1,008	±3.1	42.3	40.4	8.4	5	1.2	1.6
29 Aug	Nanos Research	1,009	±3.1	43.3	32.4	12.7	6.2	2.9	1.6
27 Aug	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	10	5	2	2
22 Aug	Nanos Research	1,045	±3.0	43.7	34.2	10.7	5.5	3.3	1.6
19 Aug	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	39	41	7	7	2	2
15 Aug	Nanos Research	1,050	±3.0	44.4	32.4	11.6	4.9	3.2	2.8
8 Aug	Liaison Strategies	1,000	±3.1	44	35	11	6	3	1
8 Aug	Nanos Research	1,094	±3.0	44.8	31.9	11.5	6.1	2.6	2.5
7 Aug	Abacus Data	1,686	±2.4	43	40	8	6	1.5	1.5
4 Aug	Léger	1,617	±2.4	46	36	6	7	3	–
1 Aug	Nanos Research	1,096	±3.0	43.7	32.5	12	5.3	2.5	3
1 Aug	Pallas Data	1,301	±2.7	43.2	37.6	7.5	6.3	2.2	–
28 Jul	Innovative Research	3,732	–	41	39	9	7	4	–
25 Jul	Liaison Strategies	–	–	43	36	10	6	3	1
25 Jul	Nanos Research	1,027	±3.1	43.6	33.5	12.1	5.9	2.3	1.8
18 Jul	Nanos Research	1,026	±3.1	44.3	34	10.3	6.6	2.3	2
15 Jul	Abacus Data	1,915	±2.2	43	40	7	6	3	1
14 Jul	Ekos	1,817	±2.3	43.2	30.5	13	5.5	3.5	3.6
11 Jul	Nanos Research	1,047	±3.0	44.5	33.8	11.1	5.9	2.1	1.9
6 Jul	Léger	1,546	±2.5	48	35	7	6	3	–
4 Jul	Liaison Strategies	–	–	46	35	9	6	2	1
4 Jul	Nanos Research	1,056	±3.0	45.1	32.6	11.5	6.2	1.8	1.8
2 Jul	Abacus Data	1,500	±2.5	41	40	9	7	2	2
2 Jul	Research Co.	1,001	±3.1	47	37	6	6	2	1
30 Jun	Innovative Research	4,029	–	43	38	8	6	3	–
27 Jun	Nanos Research	1,076	±3.0	44.5	31.4	12.8	5.9	2.5	1.7
26 Jun	Mainstreet Research	1,168	±2.9	47	38	6	3	3	1
20 Jun	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	38	11	6	3	1
20 Jun	Nanos Research	1,090	±3.0	45.2	30.8	12.2	6.1	2.9	1.5
19 Jun	Abacus Data	1,500	±1.9	42	39	7	6	3	1
13 Jun	Nanos Research	1,080	±3.0	44.2	32.2	11.4	6.3	3.2	1.7
6 Jun	Liaison Strategies	–	–	42	39	9	6	2	1
6 Jun	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	42.6	32.8	12	6.5	3.9	1.3
5 Jun	Abacus Data	2,585	±1.9	42	39	8	6	3	1
4 Jun	Ekos	1,529	±2.5	43.9	32	12.7	5.2	3	3
30 May	Nanos Research	1,079	±3.0	41.7	36.4	10.5	6.5	3.4	1.1
30 May	Spark Insights	3,450	–	41	40	8	7	–	–
23 May	Liaison Strategies	–	–	44	39	8	6	1	1
23 May	Nanos Research	1,127	±3.0	40.4	38.6	9.8	5.9	3.7	1.3
22 May	Innovative Research	2,517	–	42	39	8	6	3	–
21 May	Abacus Data	2,273	±2.1	41	40	8	7	3	1
16 May	Nanos Research	1,127	±2.9	41.4	39.6	8.5	4.7	3.9	1.3
9 May	Liaison Strategies	–	–	45	40	7	6	1	1
9 May	Nanos Research	1,259	±2.8	41.5	40.5	7.8	5.1	3.3	1.3
2 May	Nanos Research	1,297	±2.7	41.8	39.2	7.9	5.8	3.2	1.3

National polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s federal polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2025 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 172 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 199 projections, to 2 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	LibLiberal	ConConservative	NDPNDP	BQBloc Québécois	GrnGreen	LibLiberal maj.	ConConservative maj.	Minority
3 Oct 2026	Liaison Strategies	226	82	13	20	2	92%	2%	6%
2 Oct 2026	Nanos Research	225	83	13	20	2	92%	2%	7%
26 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	223	85	13	20	2	91%	2%	7%
25 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	222	86	12	20	2	91%	2%	7%
23 Sep 2026	Abacus Data	220	88	12	21	2	90%	2%	8%
19 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	221	87	13	20	2	90%	2%	8%
18 Sep 2026	Nanos Research	221	88	12	20	2	90%	2%	8%
12 Sep 2026	Liaison Strategies	219	88	13	21	2	90%	2%	8%

192 earlier projections

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 343 ridings. The national polling average sets each party’s change since that election. A rule fitted on the federal elections since 2006 turns it into a change for each of seven regions, and polls of a single province or region, from the pollsters’ own releases, correct that rule where they exist. Each riding moves with its region, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2025 share, and the ridings are adjusted so that each region reproduces its estimate. The Bloc Québécois runs only in Quebec. A first-term member running again gains a few points and an open seat loses a few; in Quebec, ridings with more French speakers move further in the direction of the province-wide change; members who crossed the floor take a small part of their 2025 vote to their new party.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a national polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from the six federal elections from 2008 to 2025. Tested on each of those elections with only the polls published before it, and with every size fitted on the other five, the projected leader won 82.9% of 1,973 ridings, and 90% ranges contained 93.6% of riding vote shares. Local campaigns, candidates other than incumbents and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2025 election results