Quebec seat projection, 14 September 2026
As of 14 September 2026, from 79 polls · election day 5 October 2026
These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 14 September 2026.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the PQ win a median of 42 seats (90% range 18–69) and a majority in 9%; the Liberals 34 seats (90% range 26–43); the CAQ 34 seats (90% range 10–59) and a majority in 3%; the Conservatives 9 seats (90% range 3–18); Québec solidaire 6 seats (90% range 2–11). No party wins a majority in 88%.
Parti Québécois majority
9%
Most seats in 55% of simulations
Coalition Avenir Québec majority
3%
Most seats in 35% of simulations
No majority
88%
44 ridings with no party above 60%
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
42 seats (18–69) · majority 9%
42 seats (18–69) · majority 9%
Liberal
34 seats (26–43)
34 seats (26–43)
Conservative
9 seats (3–18)
9 seats (3–18)
Coalition Avenir Québec
34 seats (10–59) · majority 3%
34 seats (10–59) · majority 3%
Québec solidaire
6 seats (2–11)
6 seats (2–11)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in <1%.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
Median 42, 90%: 18–69
Majority in 9%
Most frequent: 43 (2.9%)
Liberal
Median 34, 90%: 26–43
Most frequent: 33 (10.4%)
Conservative
Median 9, 90%: 3–18
Most frequent: 8 (9.8%)
Coalition Avenir Québec
Median 34, 90%: 10–59
Majority in 3%
Most frequent: 35 (3.0%)
Québec solidaire
Median 6, 90%: 2–11
Most frequent: 6 (15.7%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 42 | 18 to 69 | 43 seats, 2.9% of simulations | 9% |
| Liberal | 34 | 26 to 43 | 33 seats, 10.4% of simulations | <1% |
| Conservative | 9 | 3 to 18 | 8 seats, 9.8% of simulations | <1% |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 34 | 10 to 59 | 35 seats, 3.0% of simulations | 3% |
| Québec solidaire | 6 | 2 to 11 | 6 seats, 15.7% of simulations | 0% |
What changed
New poll
- Nanos, fieldwork to 14 Sep 2026, 485 respondentsParti Québécois 28 · Liberal 24 · Coalition Avenir Québec 21 · Conservative 16 · Québec solidaire 9
Change since 13 Sep 2026
- Median seats: Parti Québécois +1, Liberal +1, Conservative 0, Coalition Avenir Québec −1, Québec solidaire 0.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Parti Québécois 0, Coalition Avenir Québec 0; no majority 0.
- No riding changed projected leader.
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Parti Québécois | Liberal | Conservative | Coalition Avenir Québec | Québec solidaire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Likely 80–95% | 6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Leans 60–80% | 15 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
| Toss-up <60% | 44 | ||||
Quebec
Greater Montreal
Montreal and Laval
Quebec City
Seats changing hands
Won in 2022Projected
PQParti Québécois3
PLQLiberal21
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92
QSQuébec solidaire11
PQParti Québécois25
PLQLiberal31
PCQConservative7
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec14
QSQuébec solidaire6
Toss-upToss-up44
| Party | 2022 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQParti Québécois | 3 | 25 | 22 | – | – |
| PLQLiberal | 21 | 31 | 10 | – | – |
| PCQConservative | 0 | 7 | 7 | – | – |
| CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | 92 | 14 | – | 36 | 42 |
| QSQuébec solidaire | 11 | 6 | – | 3 | 2 |
| Toss-up | 44 | ||||
The path to a majority
Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Brome-Missisquoi, 28% · chance of a majority 9%
Liberal64th-best riding: Charlesbourg, 2% · chance of a majority <1%
Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Prévost, 26% · chance of a majority 3%
All 127 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 28 (16–41) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (16–41)Parti Québécois24.5 (13–37)Liberal23.5 (12–36)Conservative14.4 (5–25) |
| Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%PQ 37 (23–51) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 75% | Leans | Parti Québécois37.0 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec28.2 (16–41)Conservative12.7 (4–23)Liberal10.9 (2–21)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–19) |
| AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 53 (39–67) · PQ 18 (8–30) | Liberal 42.2% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal53.2 (39–67)Parti Québécois18.3 (8–30)Conservative12.3 (4–22) |
| Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%PLQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 21 (10–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal42.2 (28–56)Parti Québécois21.4 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec18.1 (8–30) |
| ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois28.9 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec26.8 (15–39)Liberal18.8 (8–31)Conservative17.1 (7–28) |
| Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 33 (21–46) · PCQ 30 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec33.3 (21–46)Conservative29.5 (17–42)Parti Québécois21.9 (11–34) |
| Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 49 (35–62) · CAQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLikely | 94% | Likely | Conservative48.8 (35–62)Coalition Avenir Québec25.6 (14–38)Parti Québécois15.2 (5–27) |
| Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 50 (36–64) · CAQ 27 (14–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLikely | 94% | Likely | Conservative50.2 (36–64)Coalition Avenir Québec26.7 (14–40)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23) |
| BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 31 (18–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec34.4 (21–48)Parti Québécois31.2 (18–45)Liberal13.0 (4–24)Conservative12.0 (3–22) |
| BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%PCQ 40 (27–54) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLikely | 83% | Likely | Conservative40.4 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec27.4 (15–40)Parti Québécois19.3 (9–32) |
| BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 34 (21–48) · CAQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 61% | Leans | Parti Québécois33.9 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec30.2 (17–43)Conservative14.6 (5–25)Liberal11.6 (3–22) |
| BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%PQ 37 (24–51) · CAQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 66% | Leans | Parti Québécois37.4 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec32.0 (19–45)Conservative13.6 (4–24) |
| BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 77% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.7 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec26.9 (15–40)Conservative12.0 (3–22)Liberal11.9 (3–23) |
| BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 30 (18–44) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec30.4 (18–44)Parti Québécois29.0 (17–42)Liberal18.8 (8–31)Conservative12.1 (4–22) |
| BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 48 (33–62) · CAQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 94% | Likely | Parti Québécois47.6 (33–62)Coalition Avenir Québec24.8 (13–37)Liberal14.5 (5–25) |
| BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%PQ 36 (22–49) · CAQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 62% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.9 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec32.0 (19–45)Liberal11.3 (2–22) |
| Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 52 (38–66) · PQ 17 (7–29) | Liberal 40.1% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal52.4 (38–66)Parti Québécois17.3 (7–29)Conservative10.1 (2–20) |
| Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 28 (16–41) · PQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec27.9 (16–41)Parti Québécois24.1 (12–37)Liberal21.5 (10–34)Conservative13.3 (4–24) |
| Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 55 (41–68) · PLQ 21 (10–33) | Parti Québécois 41.6% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | 98% | Solid | Parti Québécois54.9 (41–68)Liberal21.3 (10–33)Coalition Avenir Québec13.3 (5–24) |
| ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 33 (20–46) · CAQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois33.0 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec29.9 (17–43)Liberal14.7 (5–26)Conservative10.6 (2–20)Québec solidaire10.1 (2–20) |
| ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 37 (24–50) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 78% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec36.8 (24–50)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Conservative21.5 (10–34)Liberal11.0 (2–21) |
| ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 34 (21–47) · PLQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 74% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec33.5 (21–47)Liberal22.5 (11–35)Parti Québécois21.2 (10–33)Conservative13.2 (4–24) |
| CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%PQ 27 (14–42) · CAQ 27 (14–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 39% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois27.4 (14–42)Coalition Avenir Québec26.9 (14–41)Conservative24.1 (11–38)Liberal11.9 (2–23) |
| Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%PQ 31 (18–44) · CAQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 48% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois30.5 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec29.4 (17–42)Conservative21.5 (11–33)Liberal10.3 (2–20) |
| ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%PCQ 38 (23–52) · CAQ 29 (15–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 71% | Leans | Conservative37.6 (23–52)Coalition Avenir Québec28.9 (15–43)Parti Québécois18.1 (6–31) |
| ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 29 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.9 (29–56)Parti Québécois29.0 (17–43)Conservative11.2 (3–21) |
| ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 48 (34–62) · PCQ 22 (11–33) | Liberal 37.1% | PLQLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal48.0 (34–62)Conservative21.5 (11–33)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–26)Coalition Avenir Québec10.4 (2–20) |
| Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%PCQ 32 (18–46) · CAQ 29 (15–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5% | PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Conservative31.8 (18–46)Coalition Avenir Québec28.8 (15–43)Parti Québécois22.8 (10–37)Liberal10.4 (1–22) |
| ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%PLQ 36 (22–49) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 78% | Leans | Liberal35.7 (22–49)Parti Québécois22.6 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec21.1 (10–33)Conservative12.0 (3–22) |
| Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PCQ 28 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 43% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.1 (17–42)Conservative27.5 (15–40)Parti Québécois25.4 (13–38)Liberal12.4 (3–23) |
| D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 60 (45–73) · PCQ 21 (10–33) | Liberal 51.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal59.8 (45–73)Conservative21.1 (10–33) |
| Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 34 (21–47) · PQ 29 (16–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 61% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec33.5 (21–47)Parti Québécois29.4 (16–43)Conservative16.5 (7–28)Liberal11.3 (2–22) |
| Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%PQ 32 (18–45) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois31.5 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (16–41)Liberal17.7 (7–29)Conservative12.0 (3–22) |
| Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 29 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec32.8 (20–46)Parti Québécois29.2 (17–43)Conservative20.9 (10–33) |
| DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 38 (25–51) · PQ 33 (20–47) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 63% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.0 (25–51)Parti Québécois33.3 (20–47)Conservative14.0 (5–25) |
| DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%PQ 41 (28–55) · CAQ 26 (15–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 86% | Likely | Parti Québécois41.2 (28–55)Coalition Avenir Québec26.0 (15–38)Conservative17.9 (8–29) |
| FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 19 (8–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal41.9 (28–56)Parti Québécois19.0 (8–31)Conservative16.6 (7–28)Coalition Avenir Québec15.0 (5–26) |
| GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 56 (41–69) · CAQ 22 (10–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 98% | Solid | Parti Québécois55.5 (41–69)Coalition Avenir Québec21.7 (10–34)Liberal11.7 (3–22) |
| GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%PLQ 30 (17–43) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Liberal29.9 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec28.2 (16–41)Parti Québécois20.4 (9–33)Conservative13.3 (4–24) |
| GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 46 (32–59) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Québec solidaire 59.4% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 90% | Likely | Québec solidaire46.4 (32–59)Parti Québécois27.5 (15–41)Liberal16.1 (6–28) |
| GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.6 (26–53)Parti Québécois25.3 (13–38)Conservative13.3 (4–24)Liberal11.2 (2–22) |
| GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 46% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.3 (17–42)Parti Québécois29.1 (17–42)Liberal18.9 (8–31)Conservative10.9 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–19) |
| Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 39 (25–52) · PQ 31 (18–45) | Québec solidaire 50.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 73% | Leans | Québec solidaire38.9 (25–52)Parti Québécois30.8 (18–45)Liberal14.7 (5–27) |
| HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%PLQ 37 (24–51) · PQ 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 87% | Likely | Liberal37.3 (24–51)Parti Québécois20.3 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec18.6 (8–31)Québec solidaire12.9 (4–23) |
| HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 28 (16–42) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (16–42)Parti Québécois24.5 (13–37)Liberal22.4 (11–35)Conservative16.0 (6–27) |
| IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 63% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.2 (21–48)Parti Québécois29.8 (17–43)Conservative14.1 (5–25)Liberal11.8 (3–23) |
| Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 72 (58–83) · PCQ 11 (3–21) | Liberal 62.6% | PLQLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal71.5 (58–83)Conservative11.2 (3–21) |
| Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 29 (16–42) · PQ 24 (11–38) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Québec solidaire28.7 (16–42)Parti Québécois23.9 (11–38)Conservative17.8 (6–31)Coalition Avenir Québec16.8 (5–31)Liberal10.2 (1–22) |
| Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%PQ 33 (18–47) · PLQ 21 (9–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 73% | Leans | Parti Québécois32.5 (18–47)Liberal21.2 (9–35)Coalition Avenir Québec16.3 (5–30)Québec solidaire15.5 (5–27)Conservative12.2 (2–25) |
| Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 66 (52–78) · PCQ 12 (3–22) | Liberal 53.9% | PLQLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal65.7 (52–78)Conservative12.1 (3–22)Parti Québécois10.7 (2–21) |
| JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 49 (35–63) · CAQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 94% | Likely | Parti Québécois49.3 (35–63)Coalition Avenir Québec25.8 (14–38)Conservative10.3 (2–20) |
| JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 36 (22–50) | Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec39.2 (26–53)Parti Québécois35.9 (22–50)Conservative12.0 (3–22) |
| L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 38 (24–50) · PQ 30 (17–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 71% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.5 (24–50)Parti Québécois30.3 (17–44)Liberal11.2 (3–22)Conservative10.7 (2–21) |
| La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 33 (19–48) · CAQ 27 (13–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 62% | Leans | Conservative33.4 (19–48)Coalition Avenir Québec26.6 (13–41)Parti Québécois21.4 (9–35)Liberal11.6 (2–23) |
| La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 51 (36–65) · PQ 16 (6–28) | Liberal 38.5% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal50.7 (36–65)Parti Québécois16.2 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec14.5 (5–25)Conservative11.5 (3–21) |
| La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 34 (21–47) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 70% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec33.6 (21–47)Parti Québécois23.9 (12–36)Liberal23.1 (11–35)Conservative10.4 (2–20) |
| LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 63 (49–76) · PCQ 14 (5–24) | Liberal 51.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal63.0 (49–76)Conservative13.7 (5–24)Parti Québécois11.8 (3–22) |
| LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 34 (21–47) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois35.0 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec33.6 (21–47)Conservative12.0 (3–22)Liberal10.7 (2–21) |
| Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%PQ 43 (29–57) · CAQ 31 (19–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 81% | Likely | Parti Québécois43.0 (29–57)Coalition Avenir Québec31.2 (19–44)Conservative13.6 (4–24) |
| Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 36 (22–48) · PLQ 30 (17–43) | Québec solidaire 48.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 64% | Leans | Québec solidaire35.7 (22–48)Liberal30.0 (17–43)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–33) |
| Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 40 (26–54) · PQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal39.8 (26–54)Parti Québécois23.2 (12–35)Coalition Avenir Québec15.4 (6–27)Conservative10.6 (3–20) |
| Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 30 (18–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec32.6 (20–46)Parti Québécois30.3 (18–44)Conservative20.1 (10–32)Liberal10.7 (2–21) |
| Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%CAQ 31 (19–44) · PQ 31 (18–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 48% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec31.0 (19–44)Parti Québécois30.8 (18–44)Liberal14.8 (5–26)Conservative14.3 (5–25) |
| Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%PCQ 37 (24–50) · CAQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 78% | Leans | Conservative37.2 (24–50)Coalition Avenir Québec25.7 (14–38)Parti Québécois19.5 (9–31)Liberal11.8 (3–22) |
| Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%PQ 31 (17–45) · CAQ 28 (15–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois30.5 (17–45)Coalition Avenir Québec28.3 (15–43)Conservative17.3 (6–30)Liberal15.3 (5–28) |
| LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 30 (16–45) · PQ 26 (13–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec30.2 (16–45)Parti Québécois25.7 (13–40)Conservative24.9 (12–39)Liberal10.8 (1–22) |
| Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 57 (42–70) · PQ 15 (5–26) | Liberal 44.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal56.8 (42–70)Parti Québécois14.8 (5–26)Conservative11.9 (3–22) |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 61% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (20–46)Parti Québécois28.7 (16–42)Conservative19.3 (9–31) |
| Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 17 (7–28) | Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 94% | Likely | Parti Québécois40.9 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec16.8 (7–28)Liberal16.7 (7–28)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25) |
| MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 59 (44–72) · PQ 16 (6–27) | Liberal 46.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal58.5 (44–72)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27)Conservative10.1 (2–19) |
| MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 67% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.6 (22–48)Parti Québécois27.9 (15–41)Conservative19.6 (9–31)Liberal11.0 (2–21) |
| MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 34 (20–47) · CAQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois33.8 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–46)Liberal14.6 (5–25)Conservative10.7 (3–21) |
| Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 81 (68–90) · PCQ 8 (0–16) | Parti Québécois 67.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | >99% | Solid | Parti Québécois80.6 (68–90)Conservative7.5 (0–16) |
| Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%PQ 28 (15–41) · PLQ 27 (15–40) | Québec solidaire 34.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from QSToss-up | 40% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois27.7 (15–41)Liberal26.9 (15–40)Québec solidaire24.7 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec12.6 (3–23) |
| MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 40 (26–53) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Québec solidaire 53.9% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 79% | Leans | Québec solidaire39.8 (26–53)Parti Québécois27.5 (15–41)Liberal22.5 (11–35) |
| Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 22 (11–35) | Liberal 31.8% | PLQLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal42.7 (29–57)Parti Québécois22.4 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec14.7 (5–26)Conservative11.6 (3–21) |
| MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%CAQ 31 (19–45) · PQ 31 (19–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec31.4 (19–45)Parti Québécois31.3 (19–44)Conservative13.9 (5–24)Liberal13.4 (4–25) |
| Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 51 (36–64) · PQ 20 (9–32) | Liberal 39.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal50.7 (36–64)Parti Québécois20.4 (9–32)Québec solidaire11.6 (3–21) |
| MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 34 (20–47) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 65% | Leans | Parti Québécois33.6 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec27.3 (15–40)Liberal20.2 (9–33) |
| MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%PCQ 31 (17–45) · CAQ 27 (14–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Conservative30.7 (17–45)Coalition Avenir Québec27.2 (14–42)Parti Québécois23.3 (11–37)Liberal10.1 (1–22) |
| MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 28 (16–41) · PCQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 43% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec28.2 (16–41)Conservative25.8 (14–38)Parti Québécois25.3 (13–38)Liberal11.3 (3–22) |
| NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 63 (49–76) · PCQ 15 (6–26) | Liberal 52% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal63.1 (49–76)Conservative15.4 (6–26)Parti Québécois10.6 (2–21) |
| Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%PQ 31 (17–44) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 46% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois30.6 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec27.9 (16–41)Conservative26.4 (15–39) |
| Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 61 (47–74) · PQ 12 (3–22) | Liberal 50.5% | PLQLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal60.9 (47–74)Parti Québécois11.7 (3–22) |
| OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%PQ 26 (14–39) · CAQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 39% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois26.2 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec24.9 (13–37)Liberal24.1 (12–37)Conservative13.0 (4–24) |
| PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 35 (21–48) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 79% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.6 (21–48)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Conservative16.5 (6–28)Liberal15.7 (6–27) |
| Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 40 (26–54) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal40.1 (26–54)Parti Québécois22.9 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec14.7 (5–26)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20) |
| Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 35 (22–48) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 72% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.2 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec27.1 (15–40)Liberal17.8 (7–29) |
| PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 56 (41–69) · PQ 14 (5–26) | Liberal 43.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal55.9 (41–69)Parti Québécois14.3 (5–26)Conservative11.9 (3–22) |
| PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%PCQ 36 (23–49) · CAQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 67% | Leans | Conservative36.1 (23–49)Coalition Avenir Québec29.2 (17–42)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–34) |
| PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 28 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 71% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.2 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec27.8 (15–40)Conservative14.2 (5–25)Liberal12.0 (3–22) |
| René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%CAQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 38 (24–52) | Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec38.4 (25–52)Parti Québécois38.1 (24–52)Conservative12.6 (4–23) |
| RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%CAQ 33 (21–46) · PQ 32 (19–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (21–46)Parti Québécois32.3 (19–46)Liberal17.4 (7–29) |
| RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%PQ 37 (24–50) · CAQ 35 (22–48) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois37.1 (24–50)Coalition Avenir Québec35.0 (22–48)Conservative11.1 (3–21) |
| RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.0 (17–42)Parti Québécois25.9 (14–39)Conservative17.0 (7–28)Québec solidaire14.8 (6–25)Liberal11.9 (3–23) |
| RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 47 (33–61) · CAQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 95% | Likely | Parti Québécois47.1 (33–61)Coalition Avenir Québec23.5 (12–36)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24) |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%CAQ 33 (21–47) · PQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (21–47)Parti Québécois33.0 (20–46)Conservative14.1 (5–25) |
| Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 67 (53–79) · PCQ 16 (6–27) | Liberal 57.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal67.1 (53–79)Conservative15.7 (6–27) |
| RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%PQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 36 (23–49) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois36.6 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec35.8 (23–49)Conservative13.8 (5–24)Liberal10.0 (2–20) |
| RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%PQ 37 (23–50) · QS 27 (15–39) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from QSLeans | 77% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.6 (23–50)Québec solidaire26.5 (15–39)Liberal19.3 (8–32) |
| RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 33 (20–46) · CAQ 32 (19–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois33.1 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec31.6 (19–44)Conservative18.1 (8–30) |
| Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.1 (17–42)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Québec solidaire23.6 (12–35)Conservative10.5 (2–20)Liberal10.4 (2–21) |
| Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 26 (14–39) · QS 21 (9–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec26.1 (14–39)Québec solidaire20.9 (9–33)Parti Québécois20.7 (10–33)Liberal15.8 (6–27)Conservative14.4 (5–25) |
| Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 49 (34–63) · QS 18 (8–29) | Liberal 36.2% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal48.8 (34–63)Québec solidaire17.7 (8–29)Parti Québécois17.2 (7–29) |
| Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 36 (23–49) · PQ 32 (19–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 60% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.6 (23–49)Parti Québécois32.1 (19–46)Conservative12.2 (3–23)Liberal10.0 (2–20) |
| Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 32 (19–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 60% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.0 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec31.5 (19–44)Liberal12.1 (3–23)Conservative10.7 (2–21) |
| Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%PQ 35 (21–48) · CAQ 31 (19–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 60% | Leans | Parti Québécois34.6 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec31.2 (19–44)Conservative12.6 (4–23)Liberal10.0 (2–20) |
| Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 61 (46–74) · PCQ 14 (5–25) | Liberal 50% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal60.9 (46–74)Conservative14.4 (5–25)Parti Québécois13.0 (4–24) |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 35 (22–48) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Québec solidaire 47.6% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 63% | Leans | Québec solidaire34.9 (22–48)Parti Québécois27.8 (15–41)Liberal25.0 (13–38) |
| Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%PLQ 35 (21–48) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 76% | Leans | Liberal34.7 (21–48)Parti Québécois23.5 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec20.7 (10–33)Conservative11.2 (3–21) |
| SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%PQ 31 (18–44) · CAQ 30 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois30.5 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec30.0 (18–43)Liberal17.1 (7–29)Conservative13.0 (4–23) |
| SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 33 (20–46) · PQ 22 (10–34) | Québec solidaire 41.9% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 75% | Leans | Québec solidaire33.3 (20–46)Parti Québécois21.6 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec20.8 (10–34)Liberal12.8 (3–24) |
| SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%PLQ 35 (21–48) · CAQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 77% | Leans | Liberal34.5 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec22.9 (12–35)Parti Québécois20.2 (9–32)Conservative14.8 (6–26) |
| TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 23 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 79% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.4 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec23.4 (12–36)Liberal19.2 (8–31)Québec solidaire11.7 (4–22) |
| TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%PQ 39 (24–54) · QS 28 (15–41) | Québec solidaire 39.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from QSLeans | 78% | Leans | Parti Québécois38.9 (24–54)Québec solidaire28.1 (15–41)Liberal11.5 (2–23)Conservative10.6 (1–23) |
| TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%PQ 34 (21–47) · CAQ 31 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois34.1 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec30.5 (18–43)Liberal16.9 (7–28) |
| Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 61% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–46)Parti Québécois28.5 (16–42)Conservative15.4 (6–26)Liberal11.7 (3–22)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20) |
| UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%PLQ 28 (15–41) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Liberal28.0 (15–41)Parti Québécois24.6 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec19.7 (9–32)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27)Conservative10.7 (2–20) |
| VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%CAQ 27 (15–39) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 36% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec26.5 (15–39)Parti Québécois25.9 (14–39)Liberal25.6 (13–39)Conservative11.1 (3–21) |
| Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 30 (16–44) · PQ 26 (13–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 48% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.5 (16–44)Parti Québécois26.1 (13–40)Conservative23.4 (11–37)Liberal12.4 (2–24) |
| VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 17 (6–28) | Liberal 34.2% | PLQLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal46.3 (32–60)Parti Québécois16.5 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec15.9 (6–27)Conservative13.1 (4–24) |
| VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 37 (24–51) · CAQ 33 (20–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 63% | Leans | Parti Québécois37.0 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–45)Liberal11.2 (3–22) |
| VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%PLQ 42 (28–56) · QS 21 (10–32) | Québec solidaire 30.7% | PLQLiberalgain from QSLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal41.9 (28–56)Québec solidaire20.8 (10–32)Parti Québécois18.0 (7–30) |
| ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 51 (36–65) · QS 20 (9–31) | Liberal 38.3% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal50.9 (36–65)Québec solidaire19.6 (9–31)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27) |
| Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%PLQ 41 (27–55) · PQ 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 91% | Likely | Liberal40.9 (27–55)Parti Québécois20.4 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec17.0 (7–29)Conservative14.5 (5–25) |
| Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 62 (47–74) · PQ 13 (4–24) | Liberal 50.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal61.5 (47–74)Parti Québécois13.0 (4–24) |
| Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 64 (50–76) · CAQ 20 (9–31) | Parti Québécois 46.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | 99% | Solid | Parti Québécois63.8 (50–76)Coalition Avenir Québec19.6 (9–31)Liberal11.6 (3–22) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 27.6 | 25.7–29.5 | 0 |
| Liberal | 22.2 | 21.0–23.5 | +0.2 |
| Conservative | 15.7 | 14.6–16.8 | +0.1 |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 24.0 | 21.6–26.5 | −0.3 |
| Québec solidaire | 9.6 | 8.5–10.8 | +0.1 |
| Others | 1.0 | 0 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 14 Sep 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 13 Sep 2026, in points.
Polls included (79)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep | NanosNew | 485 | – | 28 | 24 | 16 | 21 | 9 |
| 13 Sep | Leger | 1,013 | – | 29 | 23 | 17 | 21 | 10 |
| 13 Sep | Mainstreet | 2,047 | – | 24 | 22 | 17 | 28 | 8 |
| 13 Sep | Research Co. | 705 | ±3.7 | 28 | 22 | 16 | 23 | 10 |
| 13 Sep | Synopsis | 1,000 | – | 28 | 22 | 14 | 24 | 11 |
| 12 Sep | Pallas Data | 1,085 | – | 27 | 23 | 16 | 23 | 11 |
| 6 Sep | Leger | 1,008 | – | 29 | 22 | 15 | 23 | 10 |
| 5 Sep | Pallas Data | 1,100 | – | 29 | 20 | 15 | 24 | 11 |
| 30 Aug | Leger | 1,008 | – | 29 | 22 | 15 | 24 | 10 |
| 29 Aug | Pallas Data | 1,108 | – | 29 | 22 | 16 | 24 | 9 |
69 earlier polls
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug | Synopsis | 1,009 | – | 28 | 20 | 14 | 27 | 10 |
| 24 Aug | Leger | 1,010 | – | 30 | 23 | 16 | 23 | 7 |
| 9 Aug | Leger | 998 | – | 30 | 24 | 13 | 20 | 11 |
| 2 Aug | Pallas Data | 1,121 | ±3.0 | 31 | 27 | 14 | 19 | 9 |
| 15 Jun | Leger | 1,014 | – | 30 | 27 | 13 | 21 | 8 |
| 12 Jun | Pallas Data | 1,099 | ±3.0 | 28.6 | 24.7 | 14.1 | 20 | 11.2 |
| 8 Jun | Synopsis | 1,000 | – | 31 | 25 | 12 | 21 | 11 |
| 18 May | Leger | 1,027 | – | 30 | 28 | 11 | 22 | 8 |
| 15 May | Mainstreet Research | 1,225 | ±2.7 | 22.9 | 30.5 | 14 | 24.6 | 6.8 |
| 10 May | Synopsis | 1,000 | – | 30 | 30 | 13 | 18 | 8 |
| 9 May | Pallas Data | 1,176 | ±2.9 | 28.5 | 28.3 | 14.3 | 18.9 | 8.1 |
| 27 Apr | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 32 | 32 | 11 | 16 | 7 |
| 20 Apr | Leger | 1,030 | ±3.0 | 31 | 28 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| 14 Apr | Pallas Data | 956 | ±3.2 | 28.5 | 31.8 | 13.7 | 14.4 | 10.6 |
| 6 Apr | Leger | 1,036 | ±3.0 | 32 | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| 22 Mar | Leger | 1,003 | ±3.1 | 33 | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 Mar | Leger | 1,021 | – | 31 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 9 |
| 22 Feb | Pallas Data | 1,075 | ±3.0 | 30.1 | 27.1 | 16.4 | 13.7 | 10.2 |
| 1 Feb | Innovative Research | 651 | – | 31 | 26 | 18 | 14 | 6 |
| 29 Jan | Leger | 1,000 | ±3.0 | 32 | 26 | 14 | 17 | 7 |
| 10 Jan | Pallas Data | 1,128 | ±3.0 | 34 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 11 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Leger | 1,039 | ±3.0 | 35 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 9 |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 538 | – | 40 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 10 |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Leger | 1,042 | ±3.0 | 39 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 8 |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,102 | ±3.0 | 35.5 | 24.7 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 9.2 |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Leger | 1,031 | ±3.1 | 32 | 27 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,234 | ±2.9 | 33.3 | 26.1 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 10.3 |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Leger | 1,037 | ±3.0 | 36 | 25 | 15 | 16 | 6 |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Leger | 1,053 | ±3.0 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 7 |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,187 | ±2.8 | 38 | 26.7 | 14.8 | 10.8 | 7.9 |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 524 | – | 38 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 11 |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Leger | 977 | ±3.1 | 35 | 26 | 10 | 17 | 9 |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 910 | ±3.2 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 16 | 8 |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Leger | 1,056 | ±3.0 | 30 | 28 | 14 | 17 | 9 |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,085 | ±3.0 | 31 | 26 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 11 May 2025 | Leger | 1,051 | ±3.0 | 33 | 21 | 13 | 20 | 10 |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Leger | 1,007 | ±3.1 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,120 | ±2.9 | 31.6 | 21.6 | 15 | 19.5 | 10.1 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Leger | 1,017 | ±3.1 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 21 | 10 |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Leger | 1,003 | ±3.1 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 25 | 12 |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 31 | 16 | 13 | 24 | 13 |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,093 | ±3.0 | 35 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 20.4 | 11.9 |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Leger | 1,010 | ±3.1 | 35 | 17 | 11 | 21 | 13 |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Leger | 1,036 | ±3.0 | 32 | 17 | 12 | 24 | 14 |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,111 | ±2.9 | 33.9 | 17.6 | 14 | 21.6 | 11.7 |
| 3 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,191 | ±3.0 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 23 | 13 |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Leger | 1,041 | ±3.0 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 24 | 15 |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,445 | ±2.6 | 35 | 16.7 | 12.2 | 21.7 | 13.2 |
| 8 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,339 | ±2.7 | 33.1 | 17.1 | 10.6 | 21.5 | 15.9 |
| 3 Jun 2024 | Leger | 1,015 | ±3.1 | 32 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 14 |
| 13 May 2024 | Leger | 1,031 | ±3.0 | 32 | 17 | 12 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Leger | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 34 | 15 | 10 | 24 | 14 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,256 | ±2.8 | 32.9 | 22.8 | 10.7 | 19.5 | 12.9 |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Leger | 1,033 | ±3.0 | 34 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 18 |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,122 | ±2.9 | 31.4 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 23.1 | 16.5 |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Leger | 1,032 | ±3.0 | 32 | 15 | 11 | 25 | 16 |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,175 | ±2.9 | 31.7 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 21.1 | 17 |
| 4 Dec 2023 | Leger | 1,040 | ±3.0 | 31 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 17 |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Pallas Data | 1,178 | ±2.9 | 30.4 | 15.5 | 11.3 | 24.1 | 16.1 |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 26 | 15 | 12 | 30 | 15 |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Pallas Data | 1,095 | ±3.0 | 19 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 34.5 | 15.4 |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Leger | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 34 | 17 |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Leger | 1,036 | ±3.0 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 37 | 15 |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Leger | 1,042 | ±3.0 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 37 | 16 |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Angus Reid | 506 | – | 22 | 13 | 12 | 33 | 17 |
| 1 May 2023 | Leger | 1,201 | ±3.0 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 16 |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Leger | 1,044 | ±3.0 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 14 |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 19 |
Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2022 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | Forum Research, Research Co. | 52 | 35 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 18% | <1% | 81% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas | 50 | 34 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 17% | 1% | 82% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Leger, Synopsis | 47 | 34 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 14% | 1% | 85% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Pallas | 45 | 33 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 11% | 2% | 87% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Leger | 44 | 33 | 10 | 31 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Pallas, Segma | 44 | 33 | 10 | 32 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 14 Sep 2026 (this page) | Nanos | 42 | 34 | 9 | 34 | 6 | 9% | 3% | 88% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis | 41 | 33 | 9 | 35 | 6 | 8% | 4% | 88% |
72 earlier projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | PLQLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 46 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 13% | <1% | 84% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Leger | 47 | 33 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 47 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Leger | 48 | 33 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 82% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 49 | 34 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 16% | <1% | 82% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Synopsis | 50 | 34 | 8 | 28 | 6 | 18% | <1% | 80% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Leger | 57 | 36 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 31% | 1% | 68% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Leger | 59 | 37 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 36% | 1% | 63% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 39 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 39% | 1% | 60% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Leger | 53 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 21% | 1% | 77% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Pallas Data | 52 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 19% | 1% | 79% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Synopsis | 51 | 41 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 18% | 2% | 79% |
| 18 May 2026 | Leger | 51 | 44 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 17% | 4% | 78% |
| 15 May 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 51 | 46 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 17% | 5% | 77% |
| 10 May 2026 | Synopsis | 59 | 45 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34% | 5% | 61% |
| 9 May 2026 | Pallas Data | 59 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35% | 5% | 59% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 62 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 44% | 7% | 49% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Leger | 61 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 53% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 38% | 9% | 53% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Leger | 65 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 54% | 8% | 38% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Leger | 65 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 54% | 5% | 41% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Leger | 64 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 52% | 2% | 46% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Pallas Data | 65 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 56% | 1% | 43% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Innovative Research | 69 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 29% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Leger | 71 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 76% | 1% | 23% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Pallas Data | 76 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 88% | <1% | 12% |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Leger | 79 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 91% | <1% | 9% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid, Leger | 80 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 73 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 80% | 1% | 19% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Leger | 69 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 28% |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Pallas Data | 75 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 92% | <1% | 7% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 80 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 79 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Leger | 74 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 81% | 1% | 18% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 63 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 48% | 2% | 50% |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Leger | 63 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 48% | 1% | 50% |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 66 | 37 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 58% | 1% | 41% |
| 11 May 2025 | Leger | 68 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 62% | <1% | 37% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Leger | 58 | 31 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 34% | <1% | 64% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Pallas Data | 62 | 32 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 47% | <1% | 53% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Leger | 60 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 40% | <1% | 58% |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Leger | 63 | 25 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Leger | 67 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 61% | <1% | 38% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Pallas Data | 72 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 74% | <1% | 25% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Leger | 70 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 68% | <1% | 32% |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Leger | 61 | 28 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 43% | <1% | 55% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 61 | 28 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 44% | <1% | 54% |
| 3 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 52 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 23% | <1% | 75% |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Leger | 48 | 27 | 6 | 33 | 11 | 16% | <1% | 81% |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 66 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 56% | <1% | 42% |
| 8 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 63 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 48% | <1% | 50% |
| 3 Jun 2024 | Leger | 60 | 27 | 4 | 26 | 9 | 42% | <1% | 56% |
| 13 May 2024 | Leger | 65 | 29 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 54% | <1% | 45% |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Leger, Pallas Data | 66 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 58% | <1% | 41% |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Leger | 64 | 24 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Pallas Data | 58 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 35% | <1% | 63% |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Leger | 59 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 38% | <1% | 61% |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Pallas Data | 62 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 12 | 46% | <1% | 53% |
| 4 Dec 2023 | Leger | 48 | 25 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 17% | <1% | 78% |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Pallas Data | 39 | 26 | 5 | 45 | 12 | 8% | <1% | 82% |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 19 | 25 | 4 | 67 | 12 | 1% | <1% | 38% |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Pallas Data | 11 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Leger | 12 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Leger | 11 | 20 | 2 | 81 | 11 | <1% | 0% | 6% |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Leger | 12 | 22 | 2 | 78 | 12 | <1% | 0% | 10% |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Angus Reid | 13 | 23 | 3 | 75 | 13 | <1% | <1% | 15% |
| 1 May 2023 | Leger | 11 | 23 | 1 | 79 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Leger | 6 | 21 | 1 | 86 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 6 | 22 | 1 | 87 | 11 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 7 | 22 | 2 | 80 | 15 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
How the projection works
The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.
The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.