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Stephen Taylor

Quebec seat projection, 4 December 2023

As of 4 December 2023, from 12 polls · election day 5 October 2026

These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 4 December 2023.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the PQ win a median of 48 seats (90% range 21–77) and a majority in 17%; the CAQ 36 seats (90% range 11–63) and a majority in 5%; the Liberals 25 seats (90% range 16–31); Québec solidaire 12 seats (90% range 6–21); the Conservatives 4 seats (90% range 1–11). No party wins a majority in 78%.

  • Parti Québécois majority

    17%

    Most seats in 65% of simulations

  • Coalition Avenir Québec majority

    5%

    Most seats in 34% of simulations

  • No majority

    78%

    55 ridings with no party above 60%

Projected seats by party, median and 90% range, out of 127; 64 seats are a majority.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois

48 seats (21–77) · majority 17%

Liberal

25 seats (16–31)

Conservative

4 seats (1–11)

Coalition Avenir Québec

36 seats (11–63) · majority 5%

Québec solidaire

12 seats (6–21)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 2%.

Seat distributions

Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

Median 48, 90%: 21–77

Majority in 17%

Most frequent: 55 (2.6%)

Liberal

Median 25, 90%: 16–31

Most frequent: 26 (9.3%)

Conservative

Median 4, 90%: 1–11

Most frequent: 4 (14.8%)

Coalition Avenir Québec

Median 36, 90%: 11–63

Majority in 5%

Most frequent: 40 (2.7%)

Québec solidaire

Median 12, 90%: 6–21

Most frequent: 12 (10.8%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
PartyMedian seats90% rangeMost frequentChance of a majority
Parti Québécois4821 to 7755 seats, 2.6% of simulations17%
Liberal2516 to 3126 seats, 9.3% of simulations<1%
Conservative41 to 114 seats, 14.8% of simulations<1%
Coalition Avenir Québec3611 to 6340 seats, 2.7% of simulations5%
Québec solidaire126 to 2112 seats, 10.8% of simulations<1%
The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 64 of 127 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

  • Leger, fieldwork to 4 Dec 2023, 1,040 respondentsParti Québécois 31 · Coalition Avenir Québec 25 · Québec solidaire 17 · Liberal 14 · Conservative 11

Change since 18 Nov 2023

  • Median seats: Parti Québécois +9, Liberal −1, Conservative −1, Coalition Avenir Québec −9, Québec solidaire 0.
  • Chance of a majority, in points: Parti Québécois +9, Coalition Avenir Québec −5; no majority −4.
  • Projected leader changed in 20 ridings: Orford (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Châteauguay (Liberal to Parti Québécois); Sanguinet (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Vachon (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Richelieu (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Rosemont (Québec solidaire to Parti Québécois); Sainte-Rose (Liberal to Parti Québécois); Groulx (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Mirabel (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Les Plaines (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Masson (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Repentigny (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Rousseau (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Labelle (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Louis-Hébert (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Charlesbourg (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); René-Lévesque (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Roberval (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
Parti QuébécoisLiberalConservativeCoalition Avenir QuébecQuébec solidaire
Solid 95%+612002
Likely 80–95%56235
Leans 60–80%176071
Toss-up <60%55

Quebec

Greater Montreal

Montreal and Laval

Quebec City

Seats changing hands

Won in 2022Projected
PQ3
PLQ21
CAQ92
QS11
PQ28
PLQ24
PCQ2
CAQ10
QS8
Toss-up55
Ridings by party: won in 2022, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party2022ProjectedGainsLossesToss-ups
PQ32825––
PLQ21243––
PCQ022––
CAQ9210–3052
QS118––3
Toss-up 55 
Each riding from the party that won it at the 2022 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2022 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Laval-des-Rapides, 37% · chance of a majority 17%

Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Verchères, 31% · chance of a majority 5%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 64 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 64th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 127 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.

All 127 ridings: 2022 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
Abitibi-Est2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 31 (18–44) · PQ 28 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%CAQToss-up57%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec30.5 (18–44)Parti Québécois27.6 (15–40)Liberal15.2 (5–26)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)Conservative10.0 (2–20)
Abitibi-Ouest2022: CAQ 46.7%PQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 29 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%PQgain from CAQLeans77%LeansParti Québécois39.2 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec29.0 (17–42)Québec solidaire17.1 (7–29)
Acadie2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 42 (27–55) · PQ 22 (11–35)Liberal 42.2%PLQLikely91%LikelyLiberal41.5 (27–55)Parti Québécois22.2 (11–35)Québec solidaire17.7 (7–29)
Anjou-Louis-Riel2022: CAQ 35.5%PLQ 31 (18–45) · PQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5%PLQgain from CAQLeans62%LeansLiberal31.1 (18–45)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec20.3 (10–32)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)
Argenteuil2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 32 (19–45) · CAQ 28 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%PQgain from CAQLeans60%LeansParti Québécois32.0 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (16–41)Conservative12.2 (4–22)Liberal11.4 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.9 (2–21)
Arthabaska-L'Érable2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 36 (22–49) · PQ 25 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8%CAQLeans75%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec35.6 (22–49)Parti Québécois24.7 (13–37)Conservative22.8 (12–34)Québec solidaire10.7 (2–21)
Beauce-Nord2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 42 (28–55) · CAQ 29 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4%PCQgain from CAQLikely82%LikelyConservative41.5 (28–55)Coalition Avenir Québec29.2 (16–42)Parti Québécois18.4 (8–30)
Beauce-Sud2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 43 (29–56) · CAQ 31 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%PCQgain from CAQLikely81%LikelyConservative42.7 (29–56)Coalition Avenir Québec30.5 (18–44)Parti Québécois15.3 (5–27)
Beauharnois2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 35 (22–49) · PQ 33 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%CAQToss-up55%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec35.3 (22–49)Parti Québécois33.4 (21–47)Québec solidaire13.9 (4–25)
Bellechasse2022: CAQ 45.7%PCQ 33 (20–46) · CAQ 31 (18–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7%PCQgain from CAQToss-up54%Toss-upConservative33.2 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec30.5 (18–43)Parti Québécois22.8 (11–36)
Bellefeuille2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 36 (23–50) · CAQ 31 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%PQgain from CAQLeans65%LeansParti Québécois36.4 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec31.2 (18–44)Québec solidaire15.8 (6–27)
Berthier2022: CAQ 51.2%PQ 39 (26–53) · CAQ 32 (20–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2%PQgain from CAQLeans70%LeansParti Québécois39.3 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec32.4 (20–45)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)
Bertrand2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 39 (25–52) · CAQ 27 (16–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%PQgain from CAQLeans79%LeansParti Québécois38.5 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec27.4 (16–40)Québec solidaire16.6 (7–28)
Blainville2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 32 (19–45) · PQ 32 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4%CAQToss-up49%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec31.9 (19–45)Parti Québécois31.8 (19–45)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26)Liberal11.3 (3–21)
Bonaventure2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 51 (36–64) · CAQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5%PQgain from CAQSolid95%SolidParti Québécois50.6 (36–64)Coalition Avenir Québec25.7 (14–39)Québec solidaire10.7 (2–21)
Borduas2022: CAQ 50.9%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 32 (20–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9%PQgain from CAQLeans65%LeansParti Québécois37.6 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec32.2 (20–45)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27)
Bourassa-Sauvé2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 21 (10–33)Liberal 40.1%PLQLikely91%LikelyLiberal40.6 (27–54)Parti Québécois20.9 (10–33)Québec solidaire16.3 (7–28)Coalition Avenir Québec11.8 (3–23)
Brome-Missisquoi2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%CAQToss-up55%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec29.1 (17–42)Parti Québécois26.4 (14–39)Québec solidaire17.4 (7–29)Liberal13.2 (4–24)
Camille-Laurin2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 61 (47–74) · CAQ 15 (6–26)Parti Québécois 41.6%PQSolid99%SolidParti Québécois60.9 (47–74)Coalition Avenir Québec14.8 (6–26)Liberal14.2 (5–25)
Chambly2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 35 (22–48) · CAQ 31 (18–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%PQgain from CAQLeans63%LeansParti Québécois35.1 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec30.5 (18–43)Québec solidaire17.2 (7–28)
Champlain2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9%CAQLeans80%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec38.7 (25–52)Parti Québécois27.7 (15–41)Conservative15.8 (6–27)Québec solidaire10.1 (2–20)
Chapleau2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 36 (22–49) · PQ 24 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2%CAQLikely81%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec35.5 (22–49)Parti Québécois23.6 (12–36)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)Liberal14.2 (5–25)
Charlesbourg2022: CAQ 45%PQ 30 (16–45) · CAQ 28 (15–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 45%PQgain from CAQToss-up50%Toss-upParti Québécois30.0 (16–45)Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (15–43)Conservative17.9 (6–30)Québec solidaire14.1 (4–26)
Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré2022: CAQ 48.2%PQ 33 (20–47) · CAQ 31 (18–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2%PQgain from CAQToss-up56%Toss-upParti Québécois33.2 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec30.8 (18–43)Conservative15.7 (6–26)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)
Chauveau2022: CAQ 46.8%CAQ 31 (17–46) · PCQ 30 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8%CAQToss-up49%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec31.4 (17–46)Conservative30.1 (17–44)Parti Québécois20.9 (8–34)Québec solidaire10.0 (1–22)
Chicoutimi2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 31 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3%CAQLikely83%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.5 (30–57)Parti Québécois30.9 (18–45)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)
Chomedey2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 38 (24–52) · PQ 19 (8–31)Liberal 37.1%PLQLikely89%LikelyLiberal38.2 (24–52)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–31)Conservative17.9 (8–29)Coalition Avenir Québec12.8 (4–24)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 31 (18–46) · PQ 26 (12–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5%CAQToss-up53%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec31.2 (18–46)Parti Québécois25.9 (12–40)Conservative25.0 (12–39)Québec solidaire10.5 (1–22)
Châteauguay2022: CAQ 39.1%PQ 26 (14–39) · PLQ 26 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1%PQgain from CAQToss-up38%Toss-upParti Québécois26.0 (14–39)Liberal25.5 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec23.4 (12–36)Québec solidaire13.7 (5–24)
Côte-du-Sud2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 32 (19–45) · PQ 29 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7%CAQToss-up54%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec31.6 (19–45)Parti Québécois28.8 (16–42)Conservative21.4 (10–33)Québec solidaire10.5 (2–21)
D'Arcy-McGee2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 50 (35–63) · PCQ 18 (8–29)Liberal 51.4%PLQSolid97%SolidLiberal49.5 (35–63)Conservative18.1 (8–29)Parti Québécois10.9 (2–21)Other10.8 (1–21)
Daniel-Johnson2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PQ 32 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQToss-up58%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec34.8 (22–48)Parti Québécois31.9 (19–45)Québec solidaire15.5 (6–27)Conservative11.4 (3–21)
Deux-Montagnes2022: CAQ 47.1%PQ 34 (21–47) · CAQ 30 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1%PQgain from CAQLeans63%LeansParti Québécois34.0 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec29.5 (17–42)Québec solidaire15.0 (5–26)Liberal10.3 (2–20)
Drummond-Bois-Francs2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 34 (21–47) · PQ 32 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQToss-up56%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec34.2 (21–47)Parti Québécois31.8 (19–45)Conservative15.1 (6–26)Québec solidaire11.6 (3–22)
Dubuc2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 35 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6%CAQToss-up60%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec38.6 (25–52)Parti Québécois35.4 (22–49)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22)
Duplessis2022: CAQ 45.1%PQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 27 (15–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1%PQgain from CAQLikely90%LikelyParti Québécois44.1 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec27.0 (15–39)Conservative12.8 (4–23)
Fabre2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 32 (18–45) · PQ 23 (11–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8%PLQgain from CAQLeans71%LeansLiberal31.7 (18–45)Parti Québécois22.9 (11–36)Coalition Avenir Québec17.4 (7–29)Conservative12.9 (4–23)Québec solidaire12.0 (3–22)
Gaspé2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 59 (44–72) · CAQ 22 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4%PQgain from CAQSolid98%SolidParti Québécois58.5 (44–72)Coalition Avenir Québec22.4 (11–35)
Gatineau2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 31 (18–44) · PQ 23 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9%CAQLeans64%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec30.6 (18–44)Parti Québécois23.4 (12–36)Liberal20.5 (9–32)Québec solidaire13.3 (4–24)
Gouin2022: QS 59.4%QS 57 (43–69) · PQ 26 (14–39)Québec solidaire 59.4%QSSolid97%SolidQuébec solidaire56.9 (43–69)Parti Québécois26.3 (14–39)
Granby2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 40 (26–54) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9%CAQLikely83%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.3 (26–54)Parti Québécois27.2 (15–40)Québec solidaire16.0 (6–27)
Groulx2022: CAQ 47.8%PQ 32 (19–45) · CAQ 30 (18–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8%PQgain from CAQToss-up52%Toss-upParti Québécois31.5 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec30.4 (18–43)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–28)Liberal11.2 (2–21)
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve2022: QS 50.8%QS 49 (35–63) · PQ 30 (17–44)Québec solidaire 50.8%QSLikely91%LikelyQuébec solidaire49.4 (35–63)Parti Québécois30.0 (17–44)
Hull2022: CAQ 35.3%PLQ 26 (14–39) · PQ 23 (11–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3%PLQgain from CAQToss-up42%Toss-upLiberal26.1 (14–39)Parti Québécois23.0 (11–36)Québec solidaire21.6 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec20.3 (9–33)
Huntingdon2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 30 (18–44) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 47%CAQToss-up58%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec30.3 (18–44)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)Liberal14.3 (4–25)Québec solidaire12.3 (3–23)Conservative11.3 (3–21)
Iberville2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PQ 32 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%CAQToss-up60%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec35.1 (22–48)Parti Québécois31.9 (19–45)Québec solidaire15.0 (5–26)
Jacques-Cartier2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 61 (47–74) · PQ 12 (3–22)Liberal 62.6%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal61.4 (47–74)Parti Québécois11.8 (3–22)
Jean-Lesage2022: QS 37.7%QS 39 (25–54) · PQ 25 (11–39)Québec solidaire 37.7%QSLikely83%LikelyQuébec solidaire39.2 (25–54)Parti Québécois24.5 (11–39)Coalition Avenir Québec16.7 (5–30)Conservative11.6 (2–23)
Jean-Talon2022: CAQ 32.5%PQ 35 (20–49) · QS 24 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5%PQgain from CAQLeans74%LeansParti Québécois34.7 (20–49)Québec solidaire24.0 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec17.2 (5–31)Liberal13.0 (4–24)
Jeanne-Mance-Viger2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 55 (40–68) · PQ 14 (4–25)Liberal 53.9%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal54.8 (40–68)Parti Québécois14.0 (4–25)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–22)
Joliette2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 52 (37–65) · CAQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6%PQgain from CAQSolid95%SolidParti Québécois51.5 (37–65)Coalition Avenir Québec26.3 (14–39)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21)
Jonquière2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 38 (24–52)Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4%CAQToss-up55%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec39.8 (26–53)Parti Québécois37.9 (24–52)
L'Assomption2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 38 (25–51) · PQ 32 (19–46)Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8%CAQLeans67%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec38.2 (25–51)Parti Québécois32.3 (19–46)Québec solidaire15.8 (6–27)
La Peltrie2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 29 (15–44) · PCQ 27 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%CAQToss-up44%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec29.0 (15–44)Conservative26.5 (14–40)Parti Québécois24.4 (11–39)Québec solidaire10.4 (1–22)
La Pinière2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 40 (25–53) · PQ 20 (9–32)Liberal 38.5%PLQLikely90%LikelyLiberal39.5 (25–53)Parti Québécois19.9 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec17.1 (7–29)Québec solidaire10.7 (3–21)
La Prairie2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 35 (23–48) · PQ 27 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7%CAQLeans75%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec35.4 (23–48)Parti Québécois26.5 (14–39)Liberal14.6 (5–25)Québec solidaire14.4 (5–25)
LaFontaine2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 53 (38–66) · PQ 16 (6–27)Liberal 51.7%PLQSolid98%SolidLiberal52.8 (38–66)Parti Québécois15.5 (6–27)Conservative11.1 (3–21)
Labelle2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 37 (24–51) · CAQ 34 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%PQgain from CAQToss-up59%Toss-upParti Québécois37.1 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec34.3 (22–48)Québec solidaire13.1 (4–24)
Lac-Saint-Jean2022: CAQ 51.5%PQ 46 (32–59) · CAQ 32 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5%PQgain from CAQLikely84%LikelyParti Québécois45.6 (32–59)Coalition Avenir Québec32.0 (19–45)
Laurier-Dorion2022: QS 48.8%QS 48 (34–61) · PQ 22 (11–34)Québec solidaire 48.8%QSSolid95%SolidQuébec solidaire47.6 (34–61)Parti Québécois21.9 (11–34)Liberal18.6 (8–30)
Laval-des-Rapides2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 29 (16–42) · PQ 27 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9%PLQgain from CAQToss-up52%Toss-upLiberal29.0 (16–42)Parti Québécois26.8 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec17.3 (7–29)Québec solidaire16.9 (7–28)
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 34 (21–47) · PQ 33 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQToss-up53%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec34.2 (21–47)Parti Québécois33.2 (20–47)Conservative14.6 (5–25)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20)
Les Plaines2022: CAQ 50%PQ 33 (20–47) · CAQ 32 (20–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 50%PQgain from CAQToss-up53%Toss-upParti Québécois33.4 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec32.2 (20–45)Québec solidaire13.9 (4–24)
Lotbinière-Frontenac2022: CAQ 43.7%PCQ 30 (18–43) · CAQ 29 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7%PCQgain from CAQToss-up48%Toss-upConservative30.2 (18–43)Coalition Avenir Québec28.5 (16–42)Parti Québécois22.6 (11–35)Québec solidaire10.6 (2–20)
Louis-Hébert2022: CAQ 47.2%PQ 33 (19–48) · CAQ 30 (16–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%PQgain from CAQToss-up58%Toss-upParti Québécois33.3 (19–48)Coalition Avenir Québec29.8 (16–44)Québec solidaire12.9 (3–25)Conservative12.3 (3–24)
Lévis2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 32 (18–47) · PQ 28 (15–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8%CAQToss-up56%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec31.9 (18–47)Parti Québécois28.4 (15–43)Conservative18.7 (7–31)Québec solidaire12.7 (2–25)
Marguerite-Bourgeoys2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 18 (7–30)Liberal 44.8%PLQSolid96%SolidLiberal45.3 (31–59)Parti Québécois18.4 (7–30)Québec solidaire10.9 (2–21)Coalition Avenir Québec10.4 (2–21)
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 34 (21–47) · PQ 31 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQToss-up59%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec34.2 (21–47)Parti Québécois30.9 (18–45)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26)Conservative13.6 (5–24)
Marie-Victorin2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 42 (28–56) · QS 22 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1%PQgain from CAQLikely92%LikelyParti Québécois42.4 (28–56)Québec solidaire22.0 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec17.1 (7–28)
Marquette2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 47 (32–61) · PQ 20 (9–32)Liberal 46.8%PLQSolid96%SolidLiberal47.1 (32–61)Parti Québécois19.9 (9–32)Québec solidaire11.9 (3–22)
Maskinongé2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 31 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%CAQLeans67%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec36.1 (23–50)Parti Québécois30.6 (18–44)Conservative14.1 (5–24)Québec solidaire11.0 (2–21)
Masson2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 36 (23–50) · CAQ 34 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%PQgain from CAQToss-up57%Toss-upParti Québécois36.4 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec33.8 (21–47)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25)
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 83 (71–92) · PCQ 4 (0–12)Parti Québécois 67.4%PQSolid>99%SolidParti Québécois83.1 (71–92)Conservative4.4 (0–12)
Maurice-Richard2022: QS 34.8%QS 35 (22–48) · PQ 29 (17–42)Québec solidaire 34.8%QSLeans67%LeansQuébec solidaire35.0 (22–48)Parti Québécois29.0 (17–42)Liberal16.8 (7–28)Coalition Avenir Québec13.1 (4–24)
Mercier2022: QS 53.9%QS 51 (37–64) · PQ 27 (15–40)Québec solidaire 53.9%QSLikely95%LikelyQuébec solidaire51.0 (37–64)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)Liberal12.8 (4–23)
Mille-Îles2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 32 (19–45) · PQ 26 (14–39)Liberal 31.8%PLQLeans64%LeansLiberal32.0 (19–45)Parti Québécois26.4 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec16.9 (7–29)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24)
Mirabel2022: CAQ 50.4%PQ 34 (21–47) · CAQ 33 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4%PQgain from CAQToss-up53%Toss-upParti Québécois33.7 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–46)Québec solidaire15.1 (6–26)
Mont-Royal-Outremont2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 38 (24–52) · PQ 24 (12–37)Liberal 39.4%PLQLikely83%LikelyLiberal38.2 (24–52)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–37)Québec solidaire20.3 (10–32)
Montarville2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 36 (22–49) · CAQ 28 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%PQgain from CAQLeans71%LeansParti Québécois35.8 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec28.1 (16–41)Québec solidaire16.6 (7–28)Liberal12.1 (3–23)
Montmorency2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 29 (16–44) · PQ 26 (13–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%CAQToss-up47%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec29.2 (16–44)Parti Québécois26.1 (13–41)Conservative23.7 (11–37)Québec solidaire13.3 (3–26)
Mégantic2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 30 (17–43) · PQ 28 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%CAQToss-up51%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec29.9 (17–43)Parti Québécois28.1 (16–41)Conservative19.4 (9–31)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)
Nelligan2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 53 (38–66) · PQ 14 (4–25)Liberal 52%PLQSolid98%SolidLiberal52.7 (38–66)Parti Québécois14.0 (4–25)Conservative12.7 (4–23)
Nicolet-Bécancour2022: CAQ 47%PQ 34 (21–47) · CAQ 30 (18–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 47%PQgain from CAQToss-up60%Toss-upParti Québécois34.0 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec29.8 (18–43)Conservative20.2 (10–32)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 48 (33–61) · QS 15 (6–26)Liberal 50.5%PLQSolid97%SolidLiberal47.5 (33–61)Québec solidaire15.2 (6–26)Other14.7 (2–26)Parti Québécois14.3 (5–26)
Orford2022: CAQ 42.8%PQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8%PQgain from CAQToss-up53%Toss-upParti Québécois28.8 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec26.4 (14–39)Québec solidaire17.4 (7–29)Liberal15.5 (6–26)
Papineau2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 53%CAQLeans80%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec36.1 (23–50)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–27)Conservative11.5 (3–21)
Pierre-Laporte2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 29 (16–41) · PQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8%PLQgain from CAQToss-up53%Toss-upLiberal28.7 (16–41)Parti Québécois26.0 (14–39)Québec solidaire18.4 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec16.3 (6–28)
Pointe-aux-Trembles2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 28 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%PQgain from CAQLeans76%LeansParti Québécois37.5 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec27.9 (16–41)Québec solidaire15.9 (6–27)Liberal10.3 (2–20)
Pontiac2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 18 (7–30)Liberal 43.7%PLQSolid96%SolidLiberal44.4 (30–58)Parti Québécois17.8 (7–30)Coalition Avenir Québec11.8 (3–23)Québec solidaire10.9 (3–21)
Portneuf2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 32 (19–45) · PCQ 29 (17–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%CAQToss-up51%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec31.7 (19–45)Conservative28.8 (17–41)Parti Québécois24.4 (12–37)
Prévost2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 29 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%PQgain from CAQLeans74%LeansParti Québécois37.5 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec28.5 (16–41)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)
René-Lévesque2022: CAQ 58.9%PQ 40 (27–54) · CAQ 39 (26–52)Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9%PQgain from CAQToss-up54%Toss-upParti Québécois40.4 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec39.1 (26–52)
Repentigny2022: CAQ 52.6%PQ 35 (21–48) · CAQ 34 (22–47)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6%PQgain from CAQToss-up52%Toss-upParti Québécois34.8 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec34.2 (22–47)Québec solidaire13.7 (4–24)Liberal10.0 (2–20)
Richelieu2022: CAQ 54.8%PQ 39 (26–53) · CAQ 36 (23–49)Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8%PQgain from CAQLeans60%LeansParti Québécois39.3 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec35.7 (23–49)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–21)
Richmond2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 30 (17–43) · PQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%CAQToss-up48%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec29.7 (17–43)Parti Québécois27.6 (15–41)Québec solidaire23.2 (12–36)Conservative11.5 (3–21)
Rimouski2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 48 (34–61) · CAQ 23 (12–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8%PQgain from CAQLikely94%LikelyParti Québécois47.8 (34–61)Coalition Avenir Québec23.2 (12–35)Québec solidaire20.7 (10–33)
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques2022: CAQ 52.1%PQ 35 (22–48) · CAQ 34 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1%PQgain from CAQToss-up53%Toss-upParti Québécois35.0 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec33.8 (21–47)Québec solidaire15.6 (6–27)
Robert-Baldwin2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 57 (42–71) · PCQ 13 (5–24)Liberal 57.8%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal57.3 (42–71)Conservative13.3 (5–24)Parti Québécois11.3 (2–22)Other10.1 (1–20)
Roberval2022: CAQ 56.2%PQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 37 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2%PQgain from CAQToss-up57%Toss-upParti Québécois39.9 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec37.4 (24–51)
Rosemont2022: QS 37.7%PQ 37 (24–51) · QS 36 (23–50)Québec solidaire 37.7%PQgain from QSToss-up52%Toss-upParti Québécois37.1 (24–51)Québec solidaire36.3 (23–50)Liberal11.0 (3–21)
Rousseau2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 36 (22–49) · CAQ 33 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%PQgain from CAQToss-up58%Toss-upParti Québécois35.7 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec32.7 (20–46)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–25)Conservative12.8 (4–23)
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue2022: CAQ 45.2%QS 33 (20–46) · CAQ 29 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%QSgain from CAQToss-up55%Toss-upQuébec solidaire33.1 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec28.5 (16–41)Parti Québécois25.5 (13–38)
Saint-François2022: CAQ 42.3%QS 31 (18–44) · CAQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3%QSgain from CAQToss-up55%Toss-upQuébec solidaire30.6 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec26.4 (14–39)Parti Québécois22.0 (11–34)
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 36 (22–49) · QS 28 (16–41)Liberal 36.2%PLQLeans69%LeansLiberal35.6 (22–49)Québec solidaire28.1 (16–41)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–32)
Saint-Hyacinthe2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 36 (23–49) · PQ 34 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4%CAQToss-up56%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec36.2 (23–49)Parti Québécois34.1 (21–48)Québec solidaire14.8 (5–26)
Saint-Jean2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 37 (24–51) · CAQ 32 (20–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%PQgain from CAQLeans64%LeansParti Québécois37.1 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec32.1 (20–45)Québec solidaire15.5 (6–26)
Saint-Jérôme2022: CAQ 49.7%PQ 36 (23–50) · CAQ 32 (19–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7%PQgain from CAQLeans64%LeansParti Québécois36.4 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec31.5 (19–44)Québec solidaire16.6 (7–28)
Saint-Laurent2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 50 (35–64) · PQ 17 (6–28)Liberal 50%PLQSolid98%SolidLiberal49.7 (35–64)Parti Québécois16.5 (6–28)Conservative11.5 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20)
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques2022: QS 47.6%QS 46 (33–59) · PQ 28 (15–41)Québec solidaire 47.6%QSLikely90%LikelyQuébec solidaire46.3 (33–59)Parti Québécois28.2 (15–41)Liberal14.8 (5–26)
Sainte-Rose2022: CAQ 38.5%PQ 27 (15–40) · PLQ 25 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5%PQgain from CAQToss-up44%Toss-upParti Québécois26.8 (15–40)Liberal24.5 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec22.8 (12–35)Québec solidaire15.3 (5–26)
Sanguinet2022: CAQ 48.9%PQ 33 (20–47) · CAQ 31 (19–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9%PQgain from CAQToss-up55%Toss-upParti Québécois33.1 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec31.2 (19–44)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–25)
Sherbrooke2022: QS 41.9%QS 44 (30–57) · PQ 22 (10–34)Québec solidaire 41.9%QSLikely92%LikelyQuébec solidaire44.1 (30–57)Parti Québécois21.8 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec20.1 (9–33)
Soulanges2022: CAQ 41%CAQ 26 (14–38) · PLQ 25 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 41%CAQToss-up38%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec25.5 (14–38)Liberal24.6 (12–37)Parti Québécois23.5 (12–36)Québec solidaire11.4 (3–22)Conservative10.9 (3–20)
Taillon2022: CAQ 41.5%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 24 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5%PQgain from CAQLikely82%LikelyParti Québécois37.6 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec24.2 (13–37)Québec solidaire19.2 (9–31)Liberal11.3 (3–21)
Taschereau2022: QS 39.5%PQ 39 (24–53) · QS 38 (24–52)Québec solidaire 39.5%PQgain from QSToss-up53%Toss-upParti Québécois38.8 (24–53)Québec solidaire37.7 (24–52)
Terrebonne2022: CAQ 49.8%PQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 32 (19–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8%PQgain from CAQLeans65%LeansParti Québécois36.7 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec31.6 (19–44)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24)
Trois-Rivières2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 31 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8%CAQToss-up57%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec33.4 (20–46)Parti Québécois30.5 (18–44)Québec solidaire17.6 (7–29)Conservative10.4 (2–20)
Ungava2022: CAQ 36.3%PQ 27 (15–40) · QS 26 (14–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3%PQgain from CAQToss-up44%Toss-upParti Québécois27.2 (15–40)Québec solidaire25.6 (14–38)Coalition Avenir Québec21.0 (10–33)Liberal18.4 (8–30)
Vachon2022: CAQ 44.9%PQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 28 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9%PQgain from CAQToss-up47%Toss-upParti Québécois28.6 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec28.1 (16–41)Liberal16.6 (6–28)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27)
Vanier-Les Rivières2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 31 (17–46) · PQ 29 (15–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6%CAQToss-up53%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec31.2 (17–46)Parti Québécois28.9 (15–43)Conservative17.4 (6–30)Québec solidaire13.2 (3–25)
Vaudreuil2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 35 (21–49) · PQ 20 (9–32)Liberal 34.2%PLQLikely84%LikelyLiberal35.2 (21–49)Parti Québécois19.9 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec18.4 (8–30)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20)
Verchères2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 39 (25–52) · CAQ 33 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%PQgain from CAQLeans67%LeansParti Québécois38.8 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec32.8 (20–46)Québec solidaire15.2 (6–26)
Verdun2022: QS 30.7%QS 32 (19–45) · PLQ 29 (17–42)Québec solidaire 30.7%QSToss-up54%Toss-upQuébec solidaire31.6 (19–45)Liberal29.3 (17–42)Parti Québécois20.1 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec10.0 (2–20)
Viau2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 38 (24–51) · QS 31 (18–44)Liberal 38.3%PLQLeans69%LeansLiberal37.6 (24–51)Québec solidaire30.8 (18–44)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)
Vimont-Auteuil2022: CAQ 34.3%PLQ 31 (18–44) · PQ 24 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3%PLQgain from CAQLeans64%LeansLiberal30.5 (18–44)Parti Québécois24.2 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec19.6 (9–32)Québec solidaire12.3 (4–23)Conservative10.8 (3–20)
Westmount-Saint-Louis2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 49 (34–62) · PQ 16 (6–28)Liberal 50.4%PLQSolid97%SolidLiberal48.7 (34–62)Parti Québécois16.1 (6–28)Québec solidaire13.1 (4–24)Other12.6 (1–23)
Îles-de-la-Madeleine2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 66 (53–78) · CAQ 20 (9–32)Parti Québécois 46.4%PQSolid>99%SolidParti Québécois66.4 (53–78)Coalition Avenir Québec20.0 (9–32)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 4 Dec 2023, with the spread of recent polls
PartyAverageSpreadChange
Parti Québécois30.128.4–31.8+1.8
Liberal14.714.0–15.4−0.6
Conservative11.310.9–11.6−0.4
Coalition Avenir Québec25.323.4–27.2−1.4
Québec solidaire16.415.7–17.1+0.7
Others2.2 −0.1

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 4 Dec 2023, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 18 Nov 2023, in points.

Polls included (12)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterPQPLQPCQCAQQS
4 DecLegerNew1,040±3.03114112517
18 NovPallas Data1,178±2.930.415.511.324.116.1
30 OctLeger1,026±3.12615123015
27 SepPallas Data1,095±3.01914.714.634.515.4
25 SepLeger1,028±3.12214123417
21 AugLeger1,036±3.02212113715
12 JunLeger1,042±3.0231393716
3 JunAngus Reid506–2213123317
1 MayLeger1,201±3.02214103616
26 FebLeger1,044±3.0181494017
2 earlier polls
Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterPQPLQPCQCAQQS
10 Dec 2022Leger1,002±3.11814104114
6 Nov 2022Leger1,028±3.11814113619

Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2022 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

02080642023AprJulOct2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulElection dayParti Québécois 52Liberal 35Coalition Avenir Québec 16Conservative 13Québec solidaire 7

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

0255075100%2023AprJulOct2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulMinority 81%Parti Québécois 18%Coalition Avenir Québec <1%Liberal <1%

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPQPLQPCQCAQQSPQ maj.CAQ maj.
4 Oct 2026Forum Research, Research Co.52351316718%<1%81%
3 Oct 2026Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas50341220717%1%82%
27 Sep 2026Leger, Synopsis47341126714%1%85%
26 Sep 2026Pallas45331030711%2%87%
21 Sep 2026Leger44331031710%2%87%
17 Sep 2026Pallas, Segma44331032710%2%87%
14 Sep 2026Nanos423493469%3%88%
13 Sep 2026Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis413393568%4%88%
72 earlier projections
Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPQPLQPCQCAQQSPQ maj.PLQ maj.
12 Sep 2026Pallas Data4633832613%<1%84%
6 Sep 2026Leger4733831615%<1%83%
5 Sep 2026Pallas Data4733832615%<1%83%
30 Aug 2026Leger4833830615%<1%82%
29 Aug 2026Pallas Data4934829516%<1%82%
26 Aug 2026Synopsis5034828618%<1%80%
24 Aug 2026Leger5736819531%1%68%
9 Aug 2026Leger5937815636%1%63%
2 Aug 2026Pallas Data6039813439%1%60%
15 Jun 2026Leger5339720521%1%77%
12 Jun 2026Pallas Data5239720619%1%79%
8 Jun 2026Synopsis5141720518%2%79%
18 May 2026Leger5144817417%4%78%
15 May 2026Mainstreet Research5146815417%5%77%
10 May 2026Synopsis594588434%5%61%
9 May 2026Pallas Data594587435%5%59%
27 Apr 2026Liaison Strategies624684444%7%49%
20 Apr 2026Leger614694540%6%53%
14 Apr 2026Pallas Data604992538%9%53%
6 Apr 2026Leger654781454%8%38%
22 Mar 2026Leger6545101554%5%41%
2 Mar 2026Leger6442113552%2%46%
22 Feb 2026Pallas Data6540114556%1%43%
1 Feb 2026Innovative Research6938103470%1%29%
29 Jan 2026Leger713793576%1%23%
10 Jan 2026Pallas Data763392588%<1%12%
15 Dec 2025Leger793183491%<1%9%
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid, Leger803282492%<1%8%
25 Nov 2025Pallas Data733783480%1%19%
10 Nov 2025Leger693984470%1%28%
19 Oct 2025Pallas Data753682486%1%13%
28 Sep 2025Leger803572392%<1%7%
15 Sep 2025Leger803561393%<1%6%
6 Sep 2025Pallas Data803471493%<1%6%
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid793372592%<1%8%
18 Aug 2025Leger743755481%1%18%
24 Jun 2025Mainstreet Research634196648%2%50%
22 Jun 2025Leger633997648%1%50%
16 Jun 2025Pallas Data663796758%1%41%
11 May 2025Leger6832713662%<1%37%
10 Mar 2025Leger5831722734%<1%64%
1 Mar 2025Pallas Data6232816647%<1%53%
2 Feb 2025Leger6029624740%<1%58%
19 Jan 2025Leger6325427750%<1%48%
2 Dec 2024Leger6727617861%<1%38%
26 Nov 2024Pallas Data7228513774%<1%25%
11 Nov 2024Leger7027516868%<1%32%
6 Oct 2024Leger6128623843%<1%55%
26 Sep 2024Pallas Data6128722844%<1%54%
3 Sep 2024Pallas Data52287291023%<1%75%
25 Aug 2024Leger48276331116%<1%81%
22 Jun 2024Pallas Data6626520956%<1%42%
8 Jun 2024Pallas Data63274221048%<1%50%
3 Jun 2024Leger6027426942%<1%56%
13 May 2024Leger6529519854%<1%45%
21 Apr 2024Leger, Pallas Data6629418958%<1%41%
18 Mar 2024Leger64245211250%<1%48%
24 Feb 2024Pallas Data58255261235%<1%63%
5 Feb 2024Leger59255251238%<1%61%
24 Jan 2024Pallas Data62265201246%<1%53%
4 Dec 2023 (this page)Leger48254361217%<1%78%
18 Nov 2023Pallas Data3926545128%<1%82%
30 Oct 2023Leger1925467121%<1%38%
27 Sep 2023Pallas Data112337612<1%<1%12%
25 Sep 2023Leger122337612<1%<1%13%
21 Aug 2023Leger112028111<1%0%6%
12 Jun 2023Leger122227812<1%0%10%
3 Jun 2023Angus Reid132337513<1%<1%15%
1 May 2023Leger112317912<1%<1%8%
26 Feb 2023Leger62118612<1%<1%2%
10 Dec 2022Leger62218711<1%<1%2%
6 Nov 2022Leger72228015<1%<1%6%

How the projection works

The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.

The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.

Full methodology · The 2026 election results