Quebec seat projection, 2 February 2025

As of 2 February 2025, from 31 polls · election day 5 October 2026

These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 2 February 2025.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the PQ win a median of 60 seats (90% range 31–84) and a majority in 40%; the Liberals 29 seats (90% range 20–36); the CAQ 24 seats (90% range 5–52) and a majority in 2%; Québec solidaire 7 seats (90% range 2–12); the Conservatives 6 seats (90% range 2–13). No party wins a majority in 58%.

Parti Québécois majority
40%
Most seats in 87% of simulations
Coalition Avenir Québec majority
2%
Most seats in 12% of simulations
No majority
58%
34 ridings with no party above 60%

64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

60 seats (31–84) · majority 40%

Liberal

29 seats (20–36)

Conservative

6 seats (2–13)

Coalition Avenir Québec

24 seats (5–52) · majority 2%

Québec solidaire

7 seats (2–12)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 4%.

Seat distributions

64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

Median 60, 90%: 31–84

Majority in 40%

Most frequent: 58 (2.8%)

Liberal

Median 29, 90%: 20–36

Most frequent: 30 (10.6%)

Conservative

Median 6, 90%: 2–13

Most frequent: 6 (13.0%)

Coalition Avenir Québec

Median 24, 90%: 5–52

Majority in 2%

Most frequent: 25 (2.9%)

Québec solidaire

Median 7, 90%: 2–12

Most frequent: 7 (15.8%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Parti Québécois	60	31 to 84	58 seats, 2.8% of simulations	40%
Liberal	29	20 to 36	30 seats, 10.6% of simulations	<1%
Conservative	6	2 to 13	6 seats, 13.0% of simulations	<1%
Coalition Avenir Québec	24	5 to 52	25 seats, 2.9% of simulations	2%
Québec solidaire	7	2 to 12	7 seats, 15.8% of simulations	0%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 64 of 127 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Leger, fieldwork to 2 Feb 2025, 1,017 respondentsParti Québécois 30 · Liberal 21 · Coalition Avenir Québec 21 · Conservative 14 · Québec solidaire 10

Change since 19 Jan 2025

Median seats: Parti Québécois −3, Liberal +4, Conservative +2, Coalition Avenir Québec −3, Québec solidaire 0.
Chance of a majority, in points: Parti Québécois −9, Coalition Avenir Québec −1; no majority +10.
Projected leader changed in 8 ridings: Soulanges (Parti Québécois to Liberal); Châteauguay (Parti Québécois to Liberal); Pierre-Laporte (Parti Québécois to Liberal); Laval-des-Rapides (Parti Québécois to Liberal); Sainte-Rose (Parti Québécois to Liberal); Portneuf (Coalition Avenir Québec to Conservative); La Peltrie (Coalition Avenir Québec to Conservative); Chauveau (Coalition Avenir Québec to Conservative).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Parti Québécois	Liberal	Conservative	Coalition Avenir Québec	Québec solidaire
Solid 95%+	8	15	0	0	0
Likely 80–95%	13	6	2	0	1
Leans 60–80%	28	7	2	6	5
Toss-up <60%	34

Quebec

Greater Montreal

Montreal and Laval

Quebec City

Seats changing hands

Won in 2022Projected

PQParti Québécois3

PLQLiberal21

CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92

QSQuébec solidaire11

PQParti Québécois49

PLQLiberal28

PCQConservative4

CAQCoalition Avenir Québec6

QSQuébec solidaire6

Toss-upToss-up34

Ridings by party: won in 2022, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2022	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
PQParti Québécois	3	49	46	–	–
PLQLiberal	21	28	7	–	–
PCQConservative	0	4	4	–	–
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	92	6	–	54	32
QSQuébec solidaire	11	6	–	3	2
Toss-up		34

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2022 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2022 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Brome-Missisquoi, 51% · chance of a majority 40%

Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Bellechasse, 20% · chance of a majority 2%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 64 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 64th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 127 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.

All 127 ridings: 2022 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%PQ 29 (17–42) · CAQ 28 (16–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois29.2 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec27.6 (16–40)Liberal19.7 (9–32)Conservative11.6 (3–22)
Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%PQ 42 (28–57) · CAQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	87%	Likely	Parti Québécois42.4 (28–57)Coalition Avenir Québec26.9 (15–40)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)
AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 22 (11–35)	Liberal 42.2%	PLQLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal47.4 (33–61)Parti Québécois22.3 (11–35)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–21)Conservative10.0 (2–19)
Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%PLQ 37 (23–51) · PQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans	79%	Leans	Liberal37.1 (23–51)Parti Québécois25.7 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec17.4 (7–29)
ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 33 (20–47) · CAQ 25 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	72%	Leans	Parti Québécois33.0 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec25.2 (13–38)Liberal14.9 (5–26)Conservative13.6 (4–24)
Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–46)Parti Québécois26.4 (14–39)Conservative25.3 (14–37)
Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 44 (31–58) · CAQ 26 (14–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4%	PCQConservativegain from CAQLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative44.3 (31–58)Coalition Avenir Québec25.7 (14–38)Parti Québécois19.4 (8–32)
Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 46 (32–59) · CAQ 27 (14–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%	PCQConservativegain from CAQLikely	90%	Likely	Conservative45.7 (32–59)Coalition Avenir Québec26.9 (14–40)Parti Québécois16.2 (6–28)
BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%PQ 36 (22–49) · CAQ 33 (20–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois35.6 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–46)
BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%PCQ 36 (23–49) · CAQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7%	PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans	69%	Leans	Conservative36.1 (23–49)Coalition Avenir Québec27.3 (15–40)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–37)
BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 29 (16–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	77%	Leans	Parti Québécois39.2 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec29.0 (16–42)Conservative11.6 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.5 (2–20)
BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%PQ 42 (28–56) · CAQ 30 (17–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	82%	Likely	Parti Québécois42.1 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec30.0 (17–43)Conservative10.5 (2–20)
BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	88%	Likely	Parti Québécois40.8 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec24.8 (13–37)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21)
BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%PQ 34 (21–47) · CAQ 29 (17–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	63%	Leans	Parti Québécois33.8 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec29.1 (17–42)Liberal15.2 (5–26)
BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 53 (39–67) · CAQ 23 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid	97%	Solid	Parti Québécois53.4 (39–67)Coalition Avenir Québec23.2 (12–36)Liberal11.2 (2–21)
BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%PQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 30 (18–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	78%	Leans	Parti Québécois40.2 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec29.7 (18–43)Québec solidaire10.7 (2–20)
Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 21 (10–34)	Liberal 40.1%	PLQLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal46.8 (33–61)Parti Québécois21.2 (10–34)Québec solidaire10.2 (2–20)
Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 28 (15–41) · CAQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois27.8 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec26.1 (14–39)Liberal17.2 (7–29)Québec solidaire11.4 (3–21)Conservative10.2 (2–20)
Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 60 (46–73) · PLQ 17 (7–28)	Parti Québécois 41.6%	PQParti QuébécoisSolid	99%	Solid	Parti Québécois59.5 (46–73)Liberal16.9 (7–28)Coalition Avenir Québec12.0 (3–22)
ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 37 (24–51) · CAQ 28 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	77%	Leans	Parti Québécois37.4 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec28.0 (16–41)Québec solidaire11.6 (3–21)Liberal11.2 (3–21)
ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 36 (23–49) · PQ 30 (17–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	67%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec35.6 (23–49)Parti Québécois29.5 (17–43)Conservative17.8 (8–29)
ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 32 (20–45) · PQ 25 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	68%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec32.4 (20–45)Parti Québécois25.2 (13–38)Liberal18.5 (8–30)Conservative10.3 (2–20)
CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%PQ 32 (18–47) · CAQ 26 (13–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	62%	Leans	Parti Québécois31.8 (18–47)Coalition Avenir Québec25.6 (13–40)Conservative19.9 (8–33)
Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 28 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	70%	Leans	Parti Québécois35.4 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec28.2 (16–41)Conservative17.8 (8–29)
ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%PCQ 33 (19–47) · CAQ 28 (15–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8%	PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Conservative32.9 (19–47)Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (15–43)Parti Québécois22.2 (9–36)
ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 34 (21–48)	Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	72%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec41.1 (28–55)Parti Québécois33.6 (21–48)
ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 44 (29–57) · PCQ 19 (8–30)	Liberal 37.1%	PLQLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal43.5 (29–57)Conservative18.8 (8–30)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec10.0 (2–20)
Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 28 (15–43) · PQ 28 (14–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	36%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec28.3 (15–43)Parti Québécois27.6 (14–42)Conservative27.5 (14–41)
ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%PLQ 31 (18–44) · PQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Liberal30.8 (18–44)Parti Québécois26.9 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec20.2 (10–32)
Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%PQ 31 (18–44) · CAQ 29 (16–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	48%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois30.7 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec28.8 (16–42)Conservative23.9 (12–36)
D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 52 (38–66) · PCQ 18 (8–29)	Liberal 51.4%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal52.2 (38–66)Conservative17.6 (8–29)Other13.7 (3–24)Parti Québécois10.4 (2–21)
Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 35 (21–48) · CAQ 33 (19–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois34.6 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (19–46)Conservative13.4 (4–24)Québec solidaire10.1 (2–20)
Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%PQ 36 (22–50) · CAQ 27 (15–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	76%	Leans	Parti Québécois35.9 (22–50)Coalition Avenir Québec26.7 (15–39)Liberal13.9 (4–25)
Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 34 (21–48) · CAQ 31 (18–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois33.8 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec31.2 (18–44)Conservative17.1 (7–28)
DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%PQ 38 (24–52) · CAQ 36 (23–49)	Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois37.9 (24–52)Coalition Avenir Québec36.0 (23–49)Conservative10.8 (2–21)
DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%PQ 46 (32–60) · CAQ 24 (13–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	94%	Likely	Parti Québécois46.2 (32–60)Coalition Avenir Québec24.3 (13–36)Conservative14.3 (5–24)
FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 37 (24–51) · PQ 23 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal37.1 (24–51)Parti Québécois23.3 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec14.5 (5–25)Conservative14.0 (5–25)
GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 61 (47–74) · CAQ 20 (9–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid	99%	Solid	Parti Québécois61.2 (47–74)Coalition Avenir Québec20.0 (9–32)
GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 27 (15–40) · PLQ 26 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	42%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec27.4 (15–40)Liberal25.5 (13–38)Parti Québécois24.6 (12–38)Conservative10.5 (2–20)
GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 47 (33–60) · PQ 30 (17–43)	Québec solidaire 59.4%	QSQuébec solidaireLikely	89%	Likely	Québec solidaire47.4 (33–60)Parti Québécois29.8 (17–43)Liberal11.7 (3–22)
GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 38 (24–51) · PQ 30 (17–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	73%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec37.8 (24–51)Parti Québécois29.5 (17–43)Québec solidaire10.5 (2–20)Conservative10.2 (2–20)
GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%PQ 34 (21–47) · CAQ 28 (16–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	67%	Leans	Parti Québécois33.6 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec27.8 (16–40)Liberal15.1 (5–26)Québec solidaire11.6 (3–21)
Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 41 (27–54) · PQ 34 (20–48)	Québec solidaire 50.8%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	70%	Leans	Québec solidaire40.6 (27–54)Parti Québécois33.8 (20–48)Liberal10.8 (2–22)
HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%PLQ 32 (19–45) · PQ 24 (12–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans	69%	Leans	Liberal31.9 (19–45)Parti Québécois24.1 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec17.6 (7–29)Québec solidaire14.8 (5–25)
HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%PQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois28.5 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec27.0 (15–40)Liberal18.3 (7–30)Conservative12.8 (4–23)
IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 34 (21–48) · CAQ 33 (20–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois34.2 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–46)Conservative11.0 (3–21)
Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 64 (50–76) · Oth 12 (3–22)	Liberal 62.6%	PLQLiberalSolid	>99%	Solid	Liberal63.5 (50–76)Other12.4 (3–22)Parti Québécois11.1 (2–21)
Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 31 (18–45) · PQ 27 (14–42)	Québec solidaire 37.7%	QSQuébec solidaireToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Québec solidaire31.1 (18–45)Parti Québécois27.4 (14–42)Coalition Avenir Québec15.2 (4–29)Conservative14.0 (3–26)
Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%PQ 37 (22–52) · QS 17 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	87%	Likely	Parti Québécois36.9 (22–52)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–29)Liberal17.1 (6–30)Coalition Avenir Québec15.0 (4–28)
Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 60 (46–73) · PQ 14 (4–25)	Liberal 53.9%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal60.1 (46–73)Parti Québécois13.8 (4–25)Conservative10.1 (2–19)
JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 54 (40–68) · CAQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid	97%	Solid	Parti Québécois54.4 (40–68)Coalition Avenir Québec23.9 (12–36)
JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%PQ 41 (27–55) · CAQ 37 (24–50)	Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	60%	Leans	Parti Québécois40.6 (27–55)Coalition Avenir Québec37.0 (24–50)
L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 36 (23–49) · PQ 35 (21–49)	Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec35.8 (23–49)Parti Québécois34.9 (21–49)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20)
La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 29 (16–43) · CAQ 26 (13–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%	PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up	43%	Toss-up	Conservative28.9 (16–43)Coalition Avenir Québec25.8 (13–40)Parti Québécois25.7 (12–40)
La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Liberal 38.5%	PLQLiberalSolid	95%	Solid	Liberal45.2 (31–59)Parti Québécois20.0 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec13.9 (4–25)
La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 32 (20–45) · PQ 28 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	60%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec32.3 (20–45)Parti Québécois28.1 (16–41)Liberal19.0 (8–31)
LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 59 (44–72) · PQ 15 (6–27)	Liberal 51.7%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal58.5 (44–72)Parti Québécois15.4 (6–27)Conservative11.7 (3–21)
LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 32 (19–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	73%	Leans	Parti Québécois39.5 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec31.6 (19–45)
Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%PQ 48 (34–61) · CAQ 29 (17–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	91%	Likely	Parti Québécois47.9 (34–61)Coalition Avenir Québec29.1 (17–41)Conservative10.4 (2–20)
Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 38 (24–50) · PLQ 24 (12–36)	Québec solidaire 48.8%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	79%	Leans	Québec solidaire37.5 (24–50)Liberal24.0 (12–36)Parti Québécois23.9 (12–36)
Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 35 (21–48) · PQ 28 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal34.6 (21–48)Parti Québécois27.6 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec14.6 (5–26)Québec solidaire10.9 (3–20)
Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 31 (18–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	61%	Leans	Parti Québécois35.1 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec31.3 (18–44)Conservative16.5 (7–27)
Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 29 (17–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	68%	Leans	Parti Québécois35.4 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec29.4 (17–42)Liberal11.4 (3–22)Conservative11.3 (3–21)
Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%PCQ 33 (20–46) · CAQ 26 (14–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7%	PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans	63%	Leans	Conservative33.0 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec25.5 (14–38)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–37)
Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%PQ 35 (21–50) · CAQ 27 (14–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	70%	Leans	Parti Québécois35.1 (21–50)Coalition Avenir Québec26.9 (14–41)Conservative14.0 (4–26)Liberal11.9 (3–23)
LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%PQ 30 (16–45) · CAQ 29 (15–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	48%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois30.2 (16–45)Coalition Avenir Québec29.0 (15–44)Conservative20.8 (9–34)
Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 51 (36–64) · PQ 18 (7–30)	Liberal 44.8%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal50.7 (36–64)Parti Québécois18.2 (7–30)
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 33 (20–47) · CAQ 32 (19–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	54%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois33.2 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec31.6 (19–45)Conservative15.6 (6–27)
Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 45 (31–58) · QS 16 (6–26)	Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid	97%	Solid	Parti Québécois44.8 (31–58)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–26)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (6–26)Liberal12.8 (4–23)
MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 53 (38–67) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Liberal 46.8%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal52.7 (38–67)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–32)
MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 33 (19–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (20–46)Parti Québécois32.5 (19–46)Conservative16.0 (6–27)
MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 31 (19–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	72%	Leans	Parti Québécois39.1 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec31.3 (19–45)Liberal11.4 (3–21)
Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 84 (73–93) · PCQ 5 (0–13)	Parti Québécois 67.4%	PQParti QuébécoisSolid	>99%	Solid	Parti Québécois84.2 (73–93)Conservative5.1 (0–13)
Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%PQ 31 (19–45) · QS 27 (15–39)	Québec solidaire 34.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from QSToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois31.4 (19–45)Québec solidaire26.9 (15–39)Liberal21.8 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec11.3 (3–22)
MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 41 (27–54) · PQ 30 (17–43)	Québec solidaire 53.9%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	79%	Leans	Québec solidaire41.0 (27–54)Parti Québécois30.0 (17–43)Liberal17.4 (7–29)
Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 38 (24–51) · PQ 27 (15–40)	Liberal 31.8%	PLQLiberalLeans	79%	Leans	Liberal37.6 (24–51)Parti Québécois26.9 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec14.1 (5–25)
MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%PQ 36 (23–49) · CAQ 30 (18–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	68%	Leans	Parti Québécois36.0 (23–49)Coalition Avenir Québec29.9 (18–43)Conservative10.8 (3–20)Liberal10.2 (2–21)
Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 24 (12–37)	Liberal 39.4%	PLQLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal43.8 (30–58)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–37)Québec solidaire13.3 (5–24)
MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 38 (24–52) · CAQ 25 (14–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	82%	Likely	Parti Québécois37.9 (24–52)Coalition Avenir Québec25.4 (14–38)Liberal16.0 (6–28)Québec solidaire11.0 (3–21)
MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%PQ 28 (14–43) · CAQ 26 (13–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	38%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois27.7 (14–43)Coalition Avenir Québec26.4 (13–41)Conservative26.2 (13–40)
MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 30 (17–43) · CAQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois30.0 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec27.3 (15–40)Conservative21.8 (11–34)
NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 56 (42–70) · PQ 13 (4–25)	Liberal 52%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal56.4 (42–70)Parti Québécois13.4 (4–25)Conservative12.8 (4–23)Other10.6 (2–20)
Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%PQ 36 (22–49) · CAQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	71%	Leans	Parti Québécois35.8 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec26.9 (15–40)Conservative22.4 (11–34)
Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 51 (36–64) · Oth 19 (6–31)	Liberal 50.5%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal50.6 (36–64)Other18.5 (6–31)Parti Québécois13.7 (4–25)
OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%PQ 30 (17–44) · CAQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	64%	Leans	Parti Québécois30.4 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec23.6 (12–36)Liberal19.8 (9–32)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–21)Conservative10.1 (2–20)
PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 33 (20–47) · PQ 27 (14–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	69%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec33.2 (20–47)Parti Québécois26.7 (14–40)Conservative13.2 (4–23)Liberal12.3 (3–23)
Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 34 (21–47) · PQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal34.2 (21–47)Parti Québécois26.8 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec13.6 (4–24)Québec solidaire12.0 (3–22)
Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 40 (26–53) · CAQ 25 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	86%	Likely	Parti Québécois39.6 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec25.2 (13–38)Liberal13.9 (4–25)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20)
PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 50 (35–63) · PQ 18 (7–30)	Liberal 43.7%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.8 (35–63)Parti Québécois17.8 (7–30)
PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%PCQ 32 (19–44) · CAQ 29 (16–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%	PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up	48%	Toss-up	Conservative31.5 (19–44)Coalition Avenir Québec28.7 (16–42)Parti Québécois25.9 (14–39)
PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 40 (26–53) · CAQ 26 (14–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	85%	Likely	Parti Québécois39.8 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec25.9 (14–38)Conservative11.0 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20)
René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%PQ 43 (29–57) · CAQ 36 (23–50)	Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	69%	Leans	Parti Québécois43.0 (29–57)Coalition Avenir Québec36.3 (23–50)
RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%PQ 37 (23–51) · CAQ 31 (19–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	66%	Leans	Parti Québécois36.9 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec31.3 (19–44)Liberal13.7 (4–24)
RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%PQ 42 (28–55) · CAQ 33 (20–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	74%	Leans	Parti Québécois41.8 (28–55)Coalition Avenir Québec32.9 (20–46)
RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 30 (17–44) · CAQ 28 (15–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois30.1 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec27.6 (15–41)Québec solidaire16.8 (7–28)Conservative13.6 (5–24)
RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 51 (37–65) · CAQ 21 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid	97%	Solid	Parti Québécois51.4 (37–65)Coalition Avenir Québec21.4 (10–33)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 31 (19–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	69%	Leans	Parti Québécois37.6 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec31.3 (19–45)Conservative10.9 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20)
Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 60 (45–73) · PCQ 13 (4–23)	Liberal 57.8%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal59.5 (45–73)Conservative13.0 (4–23)Other12.7 (3–23)Parti Québécois10.7 (2–21)
RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%PQ 42 (28–57) · CAQ 35 (21–48)	Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	71%	Leans	Parti Québécois42.4 (28–57)Coalition Avenir Québec34.6 (21–48)Conservative10.9 (2–21)
RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%PQ 40 (27–54) · QS 28 (16–41)	Québec solidaire 37.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from QSLikely	82%	Likely	Parti Québécois40.3 (27–54)Québec solidaire28.2 (16–41)Liberal15.0 (5–26)
RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 39 (25–52) · CAQ 30 (18–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	73%	Leans	Parti Québécois38.5 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec30.4 (18–43)Conservative14.8 (5–25)
Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%PQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	40%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois28.6 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec27.2 (15–40)Québec solidaire25.8 (14–38)
Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 25 (13–37) · PQ 24 (12–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	36%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec24.5 (13–37)Parti Québécois24.3 (12–37)Québec solidaire23.2 (11–35)Liberal12.2 (3–23)Conservative11.1 (3–21)
Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 21 (9–33)	Liberal 36.2%	PLQLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal42.0 (28–56)Parti Québécois20.5 (9–33)Québec solidaire19.9 (9–31)
Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%PQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 34 (21–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois36.6 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec33.6 (21–46)
Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 40 (26–53) · CAQ 30 (17–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	77%	Leans	Parti Québécois39.6 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec29.6 (17–42)Québec solidaire10.2 (2–20)
Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%PQ 39 (25–52) · CAQ 29 (17–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	78%	Leans	Parti Québécois38.9 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec29.1 (17–42)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21)
Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 54 (39–68) · PQ 16 (6–27)	Liberal 50%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal54.1 (39–68)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27)Conservative11.8 (3–21)
Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 37 (24–50) · PQ 31 (18–44)	Québec solidaire 47.6%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	66%	Leans	Québec solidaire36.9 (24–50)Parti Québécois30.9 (18–44)Liberal19.8 (9–32)
Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%PLQ 30 (17–43) · PQ 28 (15–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal29.7 (17–43)Parti Québécois27.8 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec19.8 (9–32)
SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%PQ 35 (22–48) · CAQ 28 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	69%	Leans	Parti Québécois35.0 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (16–41)Liberal13.5 (4–24)Conservative10.1 (2–20)
SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 36 (23–49) · PQ 25 (13–38)	Québec solidaire 41.9%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	78%	Leans	Québec solidaire35.8 (23–49)Parti Québécois24.8 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec19.0 (8–31)
SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%PLQ 30 (16–43) · PQ 24 (12–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Liberal29.6 (16–43)Parti Québécois24.2 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec22.1 (11–34)Conservative12.0 (4–22)
TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%PQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	90%	Likely	Parti Québécois39.8 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec21.8 (11–34)Liberal15.2 (5–26)Québec solidaire13.2 (5–24)
TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%PQ 43 (27–57) · QS 30 (17–43)	Québec solidaire 39.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from QSLikely	81%	Likely	Parti Québécois42.7 (27–57)Québec solidaire29.7 (17–43)
TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%PQ 39 (25–52) · CAQ 29 (17–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	78%	Leans	Parti Québécois38.8 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec28.8 (17–41)Liberal13.3 (4–24)
Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%PQ 33 (20–47) · CAQ 31 (18–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois32.8 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec30.9 (18–44)Conservative12.2 (3–22)Québec solidaire12.0 (3–22)
UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%PQ 29 (17–43) · PLQ 24 (12–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois29.3 (17–43)Liberal23.8 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec18.9 (8–31)Québec solidaire18.7 (8–30)
VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%PQ 30 (17–43) · CAQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	58%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois30.1 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec25.2 (13–37)Liberal21.1 (10–33)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20)
Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%PQ 31 (16–45) · CAQ 28 (15–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois30.7 (16–45)Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (15–43)Conservative19.5 (8–33)
VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 40 (26–54) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Liberal 34.2%	PLQLiberalLikely	92%	Likely	Liberal40.4 (26–54)Parti Québécois20.0 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (6–26)Conservative10.5 (3–20)
VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 42 (28–55) · CAQ 30 (18–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	80%	Likely	Parti Québécois41.5 (28–55)Coalition Avenir Québec30.3 (18–43)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–19)
VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%PLQ 36 (22–49) · QS 23 (12–35)	Québec solidaire 30.7%	PLQLiberalgain from QSLeans	78%	Leans	Liberal35.6 (22–49)Québec solidaire23.1 (12–35)Parti Québécois21.2 (10–34)
ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 45 (30–58) · QS 22 (11–34)	Liberal 38.3%	PLQLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal44.5 (30–58)Québec solidaire22.2 (11–34)Parti Québécois19.4 (9–31)
Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%PLQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans	80%	Leans	Liberal36.1 (23–50)Parti Québécois24.7 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec16.5 (7–28)Conservative11.9 (4–22)
Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 52 (38–66) · Oth 16 (4–27)	Liberal 50.4%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal52.0 (38–66)Other16.0 (4–27)Parti Québécois15.3 (5–27)
Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 69 (55–80) · CAQ 18 (7–29)	Parti Québécois 46.4%	PQParti QuébécoisSolid	>99%	Solid	Parti Québécois68.5 (55–80)Coalition Avenir Québec17.6 (7–29)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 2 Feb 2025, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Parti Québécois	31.8	29.8–33.8	−2.1
Liberal	18.3	15.4–21.3	+3.2
Conservative	12.7	11.2–14.2	+1.5
Coalition Avenir Québec	22.8	20.8–24.8	−2.0
Québec solidaire	10.9	9.9–11.9	−1.1
Others	3.5		+0.6

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 2 Feb 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 19 Jan 2025, in points.

Polls included (31)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire
2 Feb	LegerNew	1,017	±3.1	30	21	14	21	10
19 Jan	Leger	1,003	±3.1	34	15	11	25	12
2 Dec 2024	Leger	1,002	±3.1	31	16	13	24	13
26 Nov 2024	Pallas Data	1,093	±3.0	35	18.3	12.8	20.4	11.9
11 Nov 2024	Leger	1,010	±3.1	35	17	11	21	13
6 Oct 2024	Leger	1,036	±3.0	32	17	12	24	14
26 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	1,111	±2.9	33.9	17.6	14	21.6	11.7
3 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	1,191	±3.0	31	17	14	23	13
25 Aug 2024	Leger	1,041	±3.0	29	16	13	24	15
22 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	1,445	±2.6	35	16.7	12.2	21.7	13.2

21 earlier polls

Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire
8 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	1,339	±2.7	33.1	17.1	10.6	21.5	15.9
3 Jun 2024	Leger	1,015	±3.1	32	15	10	25	14
13 May 2024	Leger	1,031	±3.0	32	17	12	22	12
21 Apr 2024	Leger	1,026	±3.1	34	15	10	24	14
21 Apr 2024	Pallas Data	1,256	±2.8	32.9	22.8	10.7	19.5	12.9
18 Mar 2024	Leger	1,033	±3.0	34	14	10	22	18
24 Feb 2024	Pallas Data	1,122	±2.9	31.4	14.5	12.8	23.1	16.5
5 Feb 2024	Leger	1,032	±3.0	32	15	11	25	16
24 Jan 2024	Pallas Data	1,175	±2.9	31.7	15.4	11.5	21.1	17
4 Dec 2023	Leger	1,040	±3.0	31	14	11	25	17
18 Nov 2023	Pallas Data	1,178	±2.9	30.4	15.5	11.3	24.1	16.1
30 Oct 2023	Leger	1,026	±3.1	26	15	12	30	15
27 Sep 2023	Pallas Data	1,095	±3.0	19	14.7	14.6	34.5	15.4
25 Sep 2023	Leger	1,028	±3.1	22	14	12	34	17
21 Aug 2023	Leger	1,036	±3.0	22	12	11	37	15
12 Jun 2023	Leger	1,042	±3.0	23	13	9	37	16
3 Jun 2023	Angus Reid	506	–	22	13	12	33	17
1 May 2023	Leger	1,201	±3.0	22	14	10	36	16
26 Feb 2023	Leger	1,044	±3.0	18	14	9	40	17
10 Dec 2022	Leger	1,002	±3.1	18	14	10	41	14
6 Nov 2022	Leger	1,028	±3.1	18	14	11	36	19

Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2022 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire	PQParti Québécois maj.	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj.	Minority
4 Oct 2026	Forum Research, Research Co.	52	35	13	16	7	18%	<1%	81%
3 Oct 2026	Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas	50	34	12	20	7	17%	1%	82%
27 Sep 2026	Leger, Synopsis	47	34	11	26	7	14%	1%	85%
26 Sep 2026	Pallas	45	33	10	30	7	11%	2%	87%
21 Sep 2026	Leger	44	33	10	31	7	10%	2%	87%
17 Sep 2026	Pallas, Segma	44	33	10	32	7	10%	2%	87%
14 Sep 2026	Nanos	42	34	9	34	6	9%	3%	88%
13 Sep 2026	Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis	41	33	9	35	6	8%	4%	88%

72 earlier projections

Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire	PQParti Québécois maj.	PLQLiberal maj.	Minority
12 Sep 2026	Pallas Data	46	33	8	32	6	13%	<1%	84%
6 Sep 2026	Leger	47	33	8	31	6	15%	<1%	83%
5 Sep 2026	Pallas Data	47	33	8	32	6	15%	<1%	83%
30 Aug 2026	Leger	48	33	8	30	6	15%	<1%	82%
29 Aug 2026	Pallas Data	49	34	8	29	5	16%	<1%	82%
26 Aug 2026	Synopsis	50	34	8	28	6	18%	<1%	80%
24 Aug 2026	Leger	57	36	8	19	5	31%	1%	68%
9 Aug 2026	Leger	59	37	8	15	6	36%	1%	63%
2 Aug 2026	Pallas Data	60	39	8	13	4	39%	1%	60%
15 Jun 2026	Leger	53	39	7	20	5	21%	1%	77%
12 Jun 2026	Pallas Data	52	39	7	20	6	19%	1%	79%
8 Jun 2026	Synopsis	51	41	7	20	5	18%	2%	79%
18 May 2026	Leger	51	44	8	17	4	17%	4%	78%
15 May 2026	Mainstreet Research	51	46	8	15	4	17%	5%	77%
10 May 2026	Synopsis	59	45	8	8	4	34%	5%	61%
9 May 2026	Pallas Data	59	45	8	7	4	35%	5%	59%
27 Apr 2026	Liaison Strategies	62	46	8	4	4	44%	7%	49%
20 Apr 2026	Leger	61	46	9	4	5	40%	6%	53%
14 Apr 2026	Pallas Data	60	49	9	2	5	38%	9%	53%
6 Apr 2026	Leger	65	47	8	1	4	54%	8%	38%
22 Mar 2026	Leger	65	45	10	1	5	54%	5%	41%
2 Mar 2026	Leger	64	42	11	3	5	52%	2%	46%
22 Feb 2026	Pallas Data	65	40	11	4	5	56%	1%	43%
1 Feb 2026	Innovative Research	69	38	10	3	4	70%	1%	29%
29 Jan 2026	Leger	71	37	9	3	5	76%	1%	23%
10 Jan 2026	Pallas Data	76	33	9	2	5	88%	<1%	12%
15 Dec 2025	Leger	79	31	8	3	4	91%	<1%	9%
1 Dec 2025	Angus Reid, Leger	80	32	8	2	4	92%	<1%	8%
25 Nov 2025	Pallas Data	73	37	8	3	4	80%	1%	19%
10 Nov 2025	Leger	69	39	8	4	4	70%	1%	28%
19 Oct 2025	Pallas Data	75	36	8	2	4	86%	1%	13%
28 Sep 2025	Leger	80	35	7	2	3	92%	<1%	7%
15 Sep 2025	Leger	80	35	6	1	3	93%	<1%	6%
6 Sep 2025	Pallas Data	80	34	7	1	4	93%	<1%	6%
5 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	79	33	7	2	5	92%	<1%	8%
18 Aug 2025	Leger	74	37	5	5	4	81%	1%	18%
24 Jun 2025	Mainstreet Research	63	41	9	6	6	48%	2%	50%
22 Jun 2025	Leger	63	39	9	7	6	48%	1%	50%
16 Jun 2025	Pallas Data	66	37	9	6	7	58%	1%	41%
11 May 2025	Leger	68	32	7	13	6	62%	<1%	37%
10 Mar 2025	Leger	58	31	7	22	7	34%	<1%	64%
1 Mar 2025	Pallas Data	62	32	8	16	6	47%	<1%	53%
2 Feb 2025 (this page)	Leger	60	29	6	24	7	40%	<1%	58%
19 Jan 2025	Leger	63	25	4	27	7	50%	<1%	48%
2 Dec 2024	Leger	67	27	6	17	8	61%	<1%	38%
26 Nov 2024	Pallas Data	72	28	5	13	7	74%	<1%	25%
11 Nov 2024	Leger	70	27	5	16	8	68%	<1%	32%
6 Oct 2024	Leger	61	28	6	23	8	43%	<1%	55%
26 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	61	28	7	22	8	44%	<1%	54%
3 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	52	28	7	29	10	23%	<1%	75%
25 Aug 2024	Leger	48	27	6	33	11	16%	<1%	81%
22 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	66	26	5	20	9	56%	<1%	42%
8 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	63	27	4	22	10	48%	<1%	50%
3 Jun 2024	Leger	60	27	4	26	9	42%	<1%	56%
13 May 2024	Leger	65	29	5	19	8	54%	<1%	45%
21 Apr 2024	Leger, Pallas Data	66	29	4	18	9	58%	<1%	41%
18 Mar 2024	Leger	64	24	5	21	12	50%	<1%	48%
24 Feb 2024	Pallas Data	58	25	5	26	12	35%	<1%	63%
5 Feb 2024	Leger	59	25	5	25	12	38%	<1%	61%
24 Jan 2024	Pallas Data	62	26	5	20	12	46%	<1%	53%
4 Dec 2023	Leger	48	25	4	36	12	17%	<1%	78%
18 Nov 2023	Pallas Data	39	26	5	45	12	8%	<1%	82%
30 Oct 2023	Leger	19	25	4	67	12	1%	<1%	38%
27 Sep 2023	Pallas Data	11	23	3	76	12	<1%	<1%	12%
25 Sep 2023	Leger	12	23	3	76	12	<1%	<1%	13%
21 Aug 2023	Leger	11	20	2	81	11	<1%	0%	6%
12 Jun 2023	Leger	12	22	2	78	12	<1%	0%	10%
3 Jun 2023	Angus Reid	13	23	3	75	13	<1%	<1%	15%
1 May 2023	Leger	11	23	1	79	12	<1%	<1%	8%
26 Feb 2023	Leger	6	21	1	86	12	<1%	<1%	2%
10 Dec 2022	Leger	6	22	1	87	11	<1%	<1%	2%
6 Nov 2022	Leger	7	22	2	80	15	<1%	<1%	6%

How the projection works

The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.

The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.

Full methodology · The 2026 election results