Quebec seat projection, 25 September 2023
As of 25 September 2023, from 8 polls · election day 5 October 2026
These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 25 September 2023.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the CAQ win a median of 76 seats (90% range 54–89) and a majority in 87%; the Liberals 23 seats (90% range 14–29); the PQ 12 seats (90% range 5–31); Québec solidaire 12 seats (90% range 7–20); the Conservatives 3 seats (90% range 0–9). No party wins a majority in 13%.
Coalition Avenir Québec majority
87%
Most seats in 98% of simulations
No majority
13%
11 ridings with no party above 60%
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
12 seats (5–31)
12 seats (5–31)
Liberal
23 seats (14–29)
23 seats (14–29)
Conservative
3 seats (0–9)
3 seats (0–9)
Coalition Avenir Québec
76 seats (54–89) · majority 87%
76 seats (54–89) · majority 87%
Québec solidaire
12 seats (7–20)
12 seats (7–20)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 1%.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
Median 12, 90%: 5–31
Most frequent: 10 (7.3%)
Liberal
Median 23, 90%: 14–29
Most frequent: 23 (8.8%)
Conservative
Median 3, 90%: 0–9
Most frequent: 2 (18.5%)
Coalition Avenir Québec
Median 76, 90%: 54–89
Majority in 87%
Most frequent: 75 (4.8%)
Québec solidaire
Median 12, 90%: 7–20
Most frequent: 12 (12.6%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 12 | 5 to 31 | 10 seats, 7.3% of simulations | <1% |
| Liberal | 23 | 14 to 29 | 23 seats, 8.8% of simulations | <1% |
| Conservative | 3 | 0 to 9 | 2 seats, 18.5% of simulations | <1% |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 76 | 54 to 89 | 75 seats, 4.8% of simulations | 87% |
| Québec solidaire | 12 | 7 to 20 | 12 seats, 12.6% of simulations | <1% |
What changed
New poll
- Leger, fieldwork to 25 Sep 2023, 1,028 respondentsCoalition Avenir Québec 34 · Parti Québécois 22 · Québec solidaire 17 · Liberal 14 · Conservative 12
Change since 21 Aug 2023
- Median seats: Parti Québécois +1, Liberal +3, Conservative +1, Coalition Avenir Québec −5, Québec solidaire +1.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Coalition Avenir Québec −7; no majority +7.
- Projected leader changed in 7 ridings: Pierre-Laporte (Coalition Avenir Québec to Liberal); Laval-des-Rapides (Coalition Avenir Québec to Liberal); Fabre (Coalition Avenir Québec to Liberal); Mille-Îles (Coalition Avenir Québec to Liberal); Jean-Talon (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Beauce-Sud (Coalition Avenir Québec to Conservative); Beauce-Nord (Coalition Avenir Québec to Conservative).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Parti Québécois | Liberal | Coalition Avenir Québec | Québec solidaire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 3 | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Likely 80–95% | 1 | 6 | 52 | 3 |
| Leans 60–80% | 4 | 3 | 16 | 3 |
| Toss-up <60% | 11 | |||
Quebec
Greater Montreal
Montreal and Laval
Quebec City
Seats changing hands
Won in 2022Projected
PQParti Québécois3
PLQLiberal21
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92
QSQuébec solidaire11
PQParti Québécois8
PLQLiberal20
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec77
QSQuébec solidaire11
Toss-upToss-up11
| Party | 2022 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQParti Québécois | 3 | 8 | 5 | – | – |
| PLQLiberal | 21 | 20 | – | – | 1 |
| CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | 92 | 77 | – | 5 | 10 |
| QSQuébec solidaire | 11 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Toss-up | 11 | ||||
The path to a majority
Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Vimont-Auteuil, 5% · chance of a majority <1%
Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Pointe-aux-Trembles, 78% · chance of a majority 87%
All 127 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PQ 19 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.4 (27–54)Parti Québécois19.3 (9–31)Québec solidaire14.7 (5–26)Liberal13.5 (4–24)Conservative10.5 (2–20) |
| Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 29 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.2 (26–53)Parti Québécois29.3 (17–43)Québec solidaire17.2 (7–29) |
| AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 40 (26–54) · QS 19 (8–30) | Liberal 42.2% | PLQLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal40.1 (26–54)Québec solidaire18.5 (8–30)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec12.4 (3–23)Conservative10.1 (2–19) |
| Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%CAQ 29 (17–43) · PLQ 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 47% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.4 (17–43)Liberal29.0 (16–42)Parti Québécois17.7 (7–29)Québec solidaire15.9 (6–27) |
| ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 23 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.7 (25–52)Parti Québécois23.3 (12–36)Conservative12.9 (4–23)Québec solidaire11.0 (2–21)Liberal10.2 (2–20) |
| Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 45 (32–59) · PCQ 23 (12–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.3 (32–59)Conservative22.9 (12–34)Parti Québécois16.5 (7–28)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20) |
| Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 38 (24–52) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4% | PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Conservative41.1 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec38.0 (24–52)Parti Québécois11.4 (3–22) |
| Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 42 (28–56) · CAQ 39 (25–53) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Conservative42.0 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec39.3 (25–53) |
| BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 24 (13–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.9 (32–60)Parti Québécois24.2 (13–36)Québec solidaire13.8 (4–25) |
| BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PCQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 68% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.7 (26–53)Conservative33.2 (20–46)Parti Québécois14.9 (5–26) |
| BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.4 (28–55)Parti Québécois26.6 (15–39)Québec solidaire15.8 (6–27)Conservative10.4 (2–20) |
| BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.0 (29–56)Parti Québécois29.2 (17–42)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–25) |
| BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 38 (25–51) · PQ 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 74% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.6 (25–51)Parti Québécois29.0 (16–42)Québec solidaire16.9 (7–28) |
| BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.1 (28–56)Parti Québécois22.9 (12–35)Québec solidaire15.0 (5–26)Liberal10.0 (2–20) |
| BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 36 (23–50) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 61% | Leans | Parti Québécois40.0 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec36.1 (23–50)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21) |
| BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.9 (29–57)Parti Québécois27.9 (15–41)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27) |
| Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 39 (25–52) · CAQ 20 (9–32) | Liberal 40.1% | PLQLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal38.6 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec19.8 (9–32)Québec solidaire16.7 (7–28)Parti Québécois14.6 (5–26) |
| Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.2 (26–53)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–29)Liberal11.8 (3–22) |
| Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 52 (38–65) · CAQ 24 (13–37) | Parti Québécois 41.6% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | 97% | Solid | Parti Québécois51.7 (38–65)Coalition Avenir Québec24.0 (13–37)Liberal14.2 (5–25) |
| ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.9 (27–54)Parti Québécois25.8 (14–38)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–29) |
| ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 19 (8–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec49.0 (35–63)Parti Québécois19.0 (8–31)Conservative16.0 (6–27) |
| ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 16 (6–27) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec45.7 (32–59)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–25)Liberal12.4 (3–23) |
| CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%CAQ 38 (23–53) · PQ 21 (9–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 84% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.2 (23–53)Parti Québécois21.4 (9–35)Conservative18.5 (7–31)Québec solidaire14.0 (4–26) |
| Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 89% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.8 (27–54)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–36)Conservative16.3 (7–27)Québec solidaire13.3 (4–24) |
| ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%CAQ 41 (26–56) · PCQ 30 (17–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec40.8 (26–56)Conservative30.2 (17–44)Parti Québécois13.5 (3–25) |
| ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 54 (40–68) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 98% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec54.2 (40–68)Parti Québécois21.5 (11–34)Québec solidaire13.0 (4–24) |
| ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 36 (22–49) · CAQ 21 (10–33) | Liberal 37.1% | PLQLiberalLikely | 83% | Likely | Liberal35.9 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec20.8 (10–33)Conservative19.0 (9–31)Parti Québécois12.5 (3–23) |
| Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 41 (26–56) · PCQ 25 (12–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 84% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.7 (26–56)Conservative25.2 (12–39)Parti Québécois17.7 (6–31)Québec solidaire10.2 (1–21) |
| ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%CAQ 33 (20–47) · PLQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 73% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec32.9 (20–47)Liberal23.6 (12–36)Parti Québécois18.5 (8–30)Québec solidaire13.8 (5–24) |
| Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PCQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.3 (27–55)Conservative21.8 (11–34)Parti Québécois20.0 (9–32)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20) |
| D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 50 (35–64) · PCQ 21 (10–33) | Liberal 51.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal50.4 (35–64)Conservative20.7 (10–33) |
| Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.0 (31–59)Parti Québécois22.6 (11–35)Québec solidaire15.2 (5–26)Conservative11.8 (3–22) |
| Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.7 (26–53)Parti Québécois25.0 (13–37)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26) |
| Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.4 (30–58)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Conservative15.7 (6–26)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22) |
| DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 50 (36–63) · PQ 26 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec49.5 (36–63)Parti Québécois25.6 (13–38)Québec solidaire11.4 (3–21) |
| DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%CAQ 37 (24–50) · PQ 34 (21–47) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 60% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.4 (24–50)Parti Québécois33.8 (21–47)Conservative13.7 (5–24) |
| FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 30 (17–43) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Liberal29.5 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec26.2 (14–39)Parti Québécois15.9 (6–28)Conservative13.8 (5–24)Québec solidaire12.2 (3–22) |
| GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 48 (33–61) · CAQ 33 (19–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 85% | Likely | Parti Québécois47.7 (33–61)Coalition Avenir Québec32.6 (19–46) |
| GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PLQ 18 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.6 (27–55)Liberal18.4 (8–30)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–28)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–24) |
| GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 60 (45–72) · PQ 20 (9–32) | Québec solidaire 59.4% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 99% | Solid | Québec solidaire59.5 (45–72)Parti Québécois19.7 (9–32) |
| GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 51 (36–64) · PQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 98% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec50.8 (36–64)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Québec solidaire15.5 (6–27) |
| GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.6 (27–54)Parti Québécois22.8 (11–35)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–28) |
| Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 51 (37–64) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Québec solidaire 50.8% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 97% | Solid | Québec solidaire51.1 (37–64)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec13.2 (4–24) |
| HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%CAQ 29 (17–43) · PLQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.4 (17–43)Liberal24.2 (12–36)Québec solidaire21.8 (11–34)Parti Québécois16.1 (6–27) |
| HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 19 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.5 (27–54)Parti Québécois19.3 (9–31)Liberal12.8 (4–23)Québec solidaire12.3 (3–23)Conservative11.9 (3–22) |
| IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.6 (32–59)Parti Québécois22.9 (11–35)Québec solidaire14.8 (5–26) |
| Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 62 (47–75) · PCQ 10 (2–20) | Liberal 62.6% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal61.8 (47–75)Conservative10.3 (2–20) |
| Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 39 (25–54) · CAQ 25 (12–40) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 82% | Likely | Québec solidaire39.2 (25–54)Coalition Avenir Québec24.9 (12–40)Parti Québécois17.2 (6–30)Conservative12.3 (2–24) |
| Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%PQ 26 (13–40) · CAQ 26 (12–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 35% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois26.3 (13–40)Coalition Avenir Québec25.9 (12–41)Québec solidaire24.7 (12–38)Liberal12.0 (3–23) |
| Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 53 (38–66) · CAQ 12 (3–23) | Liberal 53.9% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal52.8 (38–66)Coalition Avenir Québec12.2 (3–23)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)Conservative10.5 (2–20) |
| JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 37 (23–50) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 62% | Leans | Parti Québécois40.7 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec36.8 (23–50)Québec solidaire11.6 (3–22) |
| JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 51 (37–64) · PQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec50.8 (37–64)Parti Québécois27.7 (16–41) |
| L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec48.7 (35–62)Parti Québécois23.0 (11–35)Québec solidaire15.5 (6–27) |
| La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 38 (23–54) · PCQ 27 (14–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 77% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.4 (23–54)Conservative26.9 (14–41)Parti Québécois16.5 (5–29)Québec solidaire10.2 (1–22) |
| La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 37 (23–51) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Liberal 38.5% | PLQLiberalLikely | 80% | Likely | Liberal37.2 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec25.9 (14–39)Parti Québécois13.6 (4–25)Québec solidaire11.0 (3–21) |
| La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 18 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec45.8 (32–59)Parti Québécois18.3 (8–30)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25)Liberal12.9 (4–23) |
| LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 50 (35–64) · CAQ 15 (5–28) | Liberal 51.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal50.3 (35–64)Coalition Avenir Québec15.4 (5–28)Conservative12.1 (3–22)Parti Québécois10.1 (2–20) |
| LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.1 (31–59)Parti Québécois27.4 (15–40)Québec solidaire13.1 (4–24) |
| Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 35 (22–48) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 73% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec42.9 (29–56)Parti Québécois35.0 (22–48) |
| Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 50 (36–63) · PLQ 18 (7–29) | Québec solidaire 48.8% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 98% | Solid | Québec solidaire49.9 (36–63)Liberal17.8 (7–29)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27) |
| Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 27 (15–40) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 45% | Toss-up | Liberal27.2 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec26.1 (14–39)Parti Québécois19.5 (9–31)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–29) |
| Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.6 (31–58)Parti Québécois23.8 (12–36)Conservative15.1 (6–25)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20) |
| Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 91% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.5 (29–56)Parti Québécois24.3 (12–36)Québec solidaire13.8 (4–24)Conservative10.2 (2–20) |
| Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%CAQ 38 (24–51) · PCQ 30 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 71% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.6 (24–51)Conservative30.4 (18–43)Parti Québécois15.0 (5–26)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20) |
| Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 40 (25–55) · PQ 24 (12–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.9 (25–55)Parti Québécois24.3 (12–38)Conservative12.9 (3–25)Québec solidaire12.9 (3–25) |
| LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 42 (27–57) · PQ 20 (8–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.8 (27–57)Parti Québécois19.9 (8–33)Conservative19.1 (8–32)Québec solidaire12.5 (2–24) |
| Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 43 (29–57) · CAQ 18 (8–31) | Liberal 44.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 95% | Solid | Liberal43.4 (29–57)Coalition Avenir Québec18.3 (8–31)Parti Québécois12.6 (3–23)Québec solidaire11.3 (3–21) |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.4 (31–58)Parti Québécois21.8 (11–34)Québec solidaire14.8 (5–26)Conservative14.0 (5–25) |
| Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 34 (20–46) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 65% | Leans | Parti Québécois33.5 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec26.1 (14–39)Québec solidaire23.0 (12–35) |
| MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 45 (30–59) · CAQ 17 (6–29) | Liberal 46.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal45.2 (30–59)Coalition Avenir Québec17.0 (6–29)Parti Québécois13.9 (4–25)Québec solidaire12.4 (3–23) |
| MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 22 (10–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.6 (33–60)Parti Québécois21.6 (10–34)Conservative14.5 (5–25)Québec solidaire10.8 (2–21) |
| MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 27 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.3 (31–58)Parti Québécois26.6 (14–39)Québec solidaire14.1 (5–25) |
| Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 76 (63–86) · CAQ 11 (2–21) | Parti Québécois 67.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | >99% | Solid | Parti Québécois75.6 (63–86)Coalition Avenir Québec10.7 (2–21) |
| Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%QS 36 (23–49) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Québec solidaire 34.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 81% | Likely | Québec solidaire35.9 (23–49)Parti Québécois21.6 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec21.1 (10–33)Liberal15.7 (6–26) |
| MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 54 (40–68) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Québec solidaire 53.9% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 98% | Solid | Québec solidaire54.1 (40–68)Parti Québécois20.9 (10–33)Liberal12.3 (4–22) |
| Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 30 (17–44) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Liberal 31.8% | PLQLiberalToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Liberal30.1 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec25.7 (14–39)Parti Québécois19.1 (9–31)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–25) |
| MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 91% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.8 (29–57)Parti Québécois24.5 (13–37)Québec solidaire15.0 (6–26) |
| Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 37 (23–51) · QS 21 (11–34) | Liberal 39.4% | PLQLiberalLikely | 86% | Likely | Liberal37.3 (23–51)Québec solidaire21.4 (11–34)Parti Québécois17.8 (7–29)Coalition Avenir Québec11.0 (2–22) |
| MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 27 (14–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 80% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.4 (25–52)Parti Québécois26.8 (14–40)Québec solidaire16.9 (7–29)Liberal11.0 (3–21) |
| MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 39 (24–54) · PCQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.7 (24–54)Conservative24.1 (12–37)Parti Québécois17.9 (7–31)Québec solidaire13.1 (3–25) |
| MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PCQ 20 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.5 (26–53)Conservative19.9 (9–31)Parti Québécois19.6 (9–31)Québec solidaire14.7 (5–26) |
| NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 51 (36–65) · PCQ 14 (5–25) | Liberal 52% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal51.2 (36–65)Conservative14.0 (5–25)Coalition Avenir Québec12.2 (3–24) |
| Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.7 (27–54)Parti Québécois24.6 (13–37)Conservative20.9 (10–32) |
| Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 49 (34–63) · QS 17 (7–29) | Liberal 50.5% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal48.9 (34–63)Québec solidaire16.9 (7–29)Other11.8 (1–22)Parti Québécois10.1 (2–20) |
| OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 21 (9–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec36.1 (23–50)Parti Québécois20.7 (9–33)Québec solidaire17.5 (7–29)Liberal14.0 (5–25) |
| PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 17 (6–28) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.3 (32–60)Parti Québécois16.9 (6–28)Québec solidaire15.0 (5–26)Conservative11.8 (3–22) |
| Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 27 (14–40) · CAQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 46% | Toss-up | Liberal27.1 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec25.1 (13–38)Parti Québécois19.0 (8–31)Québec solidaire18.9 (8–31) |
| Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 78% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.2 (25–52)Parti Québécois28.2 (16–41)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27) |
| PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 42 (28–56) · CAQ 20 (9–33) | Liberal 43.7% | PLQLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal42.4 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec19.9 (9–33)Parti Québécois12.1 (3–23)Québec solidaire11.3 (3–22) |
| PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PCQ 29 (17–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.1 (27–55)Conservative28.9 (17–41)Parti Québécois16.3 (6–28) |
| PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 79% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.7 (25–52)Parti Québécois28.0 (15–41)Québec solidaire15.9 (6–27)Conservative10.1 (2–20) |
| René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%CAQ 50 (36–64) · PQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec50.3 (36–64)Parti Québécois29.8 (17–43) |
| RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.8 (31–58)Parti Québécois25.4 (13–38)Québec solidaire13.7 (4–24) |
| RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec46.7 (33–60)Parti Québécois29.2 (17–42)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–21) |
| RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 39 (26–53) · QS 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.3 (26–53)Québec solidaire22.9 (12–35)Parti Québécois19.3 (9–31)Conservative12.0 (4–22) |
| RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 61% | Leans | Parti Québécois37.6 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (20–46)Québec solidaire21.5 (10–33) |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 25 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 91% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.2 (31–58)Parti Québécois25.4 (14–38)Québec solidaire15.5 (6–27) |
| Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 57 (41–70) · PCQ 15 (6–26) | Liberal 57.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal57.1 (41–70)Conservative15.0 (6–26) |
| RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 91% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec48.3 (34–62)Parti Québécois29.3 (17–42) |
| RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 38 (25–51) · PQ 29 (16–42) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 75% | Leans | Québec solidaire37.9 (25–51)Parti Québécois28.9 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec17.0 (6–29)Liberal10.3 (2–20) |
| RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.8 (29–56)Parti Québécois25.9 (14–38)Québec solidaire13.9 (5–25)Conservative13.3 (4–23) |
| Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 38 (25–51) · QS 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 65% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.0 (25–51)Québec solidaire32.5 (20–46)Parti Québécois17.6 (7–29) |
| Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 36 (22–49) · QS 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 66% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.7 (22–49)Québec solidaire30.1 (17–43)Parti Québécois14.8 (5–26) |
| Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 34 (21–48) · QS 29 (17–42) | Liberal 36.2% | PLQLiberalLeans | 64% | Leans | Liberal34.2 (21–48)Québec solidaire29.3 (17–42)Parti Québécois13.9 (4–25)Coalition Avenir Québec12.8 (3–24) |
| Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec46.8 (33–60)Parti Québécois24.6 (13–37)Québec solidaire14.7 (5–25) |
| Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 28 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.6 (29–56)Parti Québécois27.5 (15–40)Québec solidaire15.6 (6–27) |
| Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%CAQ 42 (28–55) · PQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.0 (28–55)Parti Québécois26.9 (15–39)Québec solidaire16.7 (7–28) |
| Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 49 (34–63) · PCQ 13 (4–23) | Liberal 50% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal48.6 (34–63)Conservative12.7 (4–23)Parti Québécois11.3 (2–22)Québec solidaire11.0 (3–21) |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 48 (34–62) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Québec solidaire 47.6% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 96% | Solid | Québec solidaire48.4 (34–62)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–33)Liberal14.1 (5–25) |
| Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%CAQ 32 (20–46) · PLQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 72% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec32.3 (20–46)Liberal22.6 (11–35)Parti Québécois19.2 (8–31)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–27) |
| SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%CAQ 42 (28–55) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.6 (28–55)Parti Québécois24.1 (12–36)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–25) |
| SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 44 (30–57) · CAQ 29 (16–42) | Québec solidaire 41.9% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 86% | Likely | Québec solidaire43.7 (30–57)Coalition Avenir Québec28.7 (16–42)Parti Québécois14.9 (5–26) |
| SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%CAQ 35 (22–49) · PLQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec35.2 (22–49)Liberal22.6 (11–35)Parti Québécois16.3 (6–28)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22)Conservative11.4 (3–21) |
| TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 29 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 64% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.0 (21–48)Parti Québécois28.5 (16–41)Québec solidaire19.7 (9–32)Liberal10.3 (2–20) |
| TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%QS 39 (25–54) · PQ 30 (17–45) | Québec solidaire 39.5% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 73% | Leans | Québec solidaire39.4 (25–54)Parti Québécois30.3 (17–45)Coalition Avenir Québec15.7 (4–30) |
| TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%CAQ 42 (29–55) · PQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.1 (29–55)Parti Québécois27.2 (15–40)Québec solidaire13.7 (4–24) |
| Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.6 (30–57)Parti Québécois21.7 (11–34)Québec solidaire17.4 (7–29)Conservative10.9 (3–20) |
| UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%CAQ 30 (17–43) · QS 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.9 (17–43)Québec solidaire25.6 (14–38)Parti Québécois19.3 (9–31)Liberal16.8 (7–28) |
| VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%CAQ 38 (25–51) · PQ 21 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.1 (25–51)Parti Québécois20.5 (9–32)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27)Liberal15.0 (5–26) |
| Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 41 (26–56) · PQ 20 (8–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 89% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.1 (26–56)Parti Québécois20.3 (8–33)Conservative17.9 (7–31)Québec solidaire13.1 (3–25) |
| VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 33 (20–46) · CAQ 28 (15–41) | Liberal 34.2% | PLQLiberalLeans | 66% | Leans | Liberal33.1 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec27.5 (15–41)Parti Québécois13.6 (4–24)Conservative10.4 (3–20)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–21) |
| VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 44 (29–57) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.5 (29–57)Parti Québécois29.0 (17–42)Québec solidaire15.3 (6–26) |
| VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%QS 33 (20–46) · PLQ 28 (15–41) | Québec solidaire 30.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 62% | Leans | Québec solidaire32.5 (20–46)Liberal27.7 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec17.6 (7–30)Parti Québécois14.0 (5–25) |
| ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 36 (23–50) · QS 32 (19–46) | Liberal 38.3% | PLQLiberalLeans | 62% | Leans | Liberal36.2 (23–50)Québec solidaire32.0 (19–46)Parti Québécois12.9 (4–24)Coalition Avenir Québec10.4 (1–21) |
| Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%CAQ 29 (16–42) · PLQ 28 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 46% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec28.6 (16–42)Liberal28.4 (16–42)Parti Québécois17.0 (7–28)Québec solidaire12.5 (4–23)Conservative11.5 (3–21) |
| Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 49 (34–63) · QS 14 (5–25) | Liberal 50.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal49.1 (34–63)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25)Parti Québécois11.4 (2–22) |
| Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 56 (42–69) · CAQ 30 (18–43) | Parti Québécois 46.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | 95% | Solid | Parti Québécois56.1 (42–69)Coalition Avenir Québec30.3 (18–43) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 22.0 | 22.0–22.0 | 0 |
| Liberal | 13.6 | 12.8–14.4 | +1.6 |
| Conservative | 11.8 | 11.4–12.2 | +0.8 |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 34.6 | 33.4–35.8 | −2.4 |
| Québec solidaire | 16.6 | 15.8–17.4 | +1.6 |
| Others | 1.4 | −1.6 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 25 Sep 2023, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 21 Aug 2023, in points.
Polls included (8)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep | LegerNew | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 34 | 17 |
| 21 Aug | Leger | 1,036 | ±3.0 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 37 | 15 |
| 12 Jun | Leger | 1,042 | ±3.0 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 37 | 16 |
| 3 Jun | Angus Reid | 506 | – | 22 | 13 | 12 | 33 | 17 |
| 1 May | Leger | 1,201 | ±3.0 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 16 |
| 26 Feb | Leger | 1,044 | ±3.0 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 14 |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 19 |
Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2022 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | Forum Research, Research Co. | 52 | 35 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 18% | <1% | 81% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas | 50 | 34 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 17% | 1% | 82% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Leger, Synopsis | 47 | 34 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 14% | 1% | 85% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Pallas | 45 | 33 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 11% | 2% | 87% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Leger | 44 | 33 | 10 | 31 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Pallas, Segma | 44 | 33 | 10 | 32 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Nanos | 42 | 34 | 9 | 34 | 6 | 9% | 3% | 88% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis | 41 | 33 | 9 | 35 | 6 | 8% | 4% | 88% |
72 earlier projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | PLQLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 46 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 13% | <1% | 84% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Leger | 47 | 33 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 47 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Leger | 48 | 33 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 82% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 49 | 34 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 16% | <1% | 82% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Synopsis | 50 | 34 | 8 | 28 | 6 | 18% | <1% | 80% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Leger | 57 | 36 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 31% | 1% | 68% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Leger | 59 | 37 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 36% | 1% | 63% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 39 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 39% | 1% | 60% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Leger | 53 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 21% | 1% | 77% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Pallas Data | 52 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 19% | 1% | 79% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Synopsis | 51 | 41 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 18% | 2% | 79% |
| 18 May 2026 | Leger | 51 | 44 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 17% | 4% | 78% |
| 15 May 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 51 | 46 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 17% | 5% | 77% |
| 10 May 2026 | Synopsis | 59 | 45 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34% | 5% | 61% |
| 9 May 2026 | Pallas Data | 59 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35% | 5% | 59% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 62 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 44% | 7% | 49% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Leger | 61 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 53% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 38% | 9% | 53% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Leger | 65 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 54% | 8% | 38% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Leger | 65 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 54% | 5% | 41% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Leger | 64 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 52% | 2% | 46% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Pallas Data | 65 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 56% | 1% | 43% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Innovative Research | 69 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 29% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Leger | 71 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 76% | 1% | 23% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Pallas Data | 76 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 88% | <1% | 12% |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Leger | 79 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 91% | <1% | 9% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid, Leger | 80 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 73 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 80% | 1% | 19% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Leger | 69 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 28% |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Pallas Data | 75 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 92% | <1% | 7% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 80 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 79 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Leger | 74 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 81% | 1% | 18% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 63 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 48% | 2% | 50% |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Leger | 63 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 48% | 1% | 50% |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 66 | 37 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 58% | 1% | 41% |
| 11 May 2025 | Leger | 68 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 62% | <1% | 37% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Leger | 58 | 31 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 34% | <1% | 64% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Pallas Data | 62 | 32 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 47% | <1% | 53% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Leger | 60 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 40% | <1% | 58% |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Leger | 63 | 25 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Leger | 67 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 61% | <1% | 38% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Pallas Data | 72 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 74% | <1% | 25% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Leger | 70 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 68% | <1% | 32% |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Leger | 61 | 28 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 43% | <1% | 55% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 61 | 28 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 44% | <1% | 54% |
| 3 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 52 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 23% | <1% | 75% |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Leger | 48 | 27 | 6 | 33 | 11 | 16% | <1% | 81% |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 66 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 56% | <1% | 42% |
| 8 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 63 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 48% | <1% | 50% |
| 3 Jun 2024 | Leger | 60 | 27 | 4 | 26 | 9 | 42% | <1% | 56% |
| 13 May 2024 | Leger | 65 | 29 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 54% | <1% | 45% |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Leger, Pallas Data | 66 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 58% | <1% | 41% |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Leger | 64 | 24 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Pallas Data | 58 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 35% | <1% | 63% |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Leger | 59 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 38% | <1% | 61% |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Pallas Data | 62 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 12 | 46% | <1% | 53% |
| 4 Dec 2023 | Leger | 48 | 25 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 17% | <1% | 78% |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Pallas Data | 39 | 26 | 5 | 45 | 12 | 8% | <1% | 82% |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 19 | 25 | 4 | 67 | 12 | 1% | <1% | 38% |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Pallas Data | 11 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 25 Sep 2023 (this page) | Leger | 12 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Leger | 11 | 20 | 2 | 81 | 11 | <1% | 0% | 6% |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Leger | 12 | 22 | 2 | 78 | 12 | <1% | 0% | 10% |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Angus Reid | 13 | 23 | 3 | 75 | 13 | <1% | <1% | 15% |
| 1 May 2023 | Leger | 11 | 23 | 1 | 79 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Leger | 6 | 21 | 1 | 86 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 6 | 22 | 1 | 87 | 11 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 7 | 22 | 2 | 80 | 15 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
How the projection works
The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.
The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.