Quebec seat projection, 6 November 2022
As of 6 November 2022, from 1 polls · election day 5 October 2026
These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 6 November 2022.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the CAQ win a median of 80 seats (90% range 62–92) and a majority in 94%; the Liberals 22 seats (90% range 14–29); Québec solidaire 15 seats (90% range 9–25); the PQ 7 seats (90% range 3–18); the Conservatives 2 seats (90% range 0–7). No party wins a majority in 6%.
Coalition Avenir Québec majority
94%
Most seats in 99% of simulations
No majority
6%
16 ridings with no party above 60%
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
7 seats (3–18)
7 seats (3–18)
Liberal
22 seats (14–29)
22 seats (14–29)
Conservative
2 seats (0–7)
2 seats (0–7)
Coalition Avenir Québec
80 seats (62–92) · majority 94%
80 seats (62–92) · majority 94%
Québec solidaire
15 seats (9–25)
15 seats (9–25)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 2%.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
Median 7, 90%: 3–18
Most frequent: 6 (12.2%)
Liberal
Median 22, 90%: 14–29
Most frequent: 22 (8.9%)
Conservative
Median 2, 90%: 0–7
Most frequent: 1 (22.3%)
Coalition Avenir Québec
Median 80, 90%: 62–92
Majority in 94%
Most frequent: 82 (5.8%)
Québec solidaire
Median 15, 90%: 9–25
Most frequent: 14 (10.9%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 7 | 3 to 18 | 6 seats, 12.2% of simulations | <1% |
| Liberal | 22 | 14 to 29 | 22 seats, 8.9% of simulations | <1% |
| Conservative | 2 | 0 to 7 | 1 seats, 22.3% of simulations | <1% |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 80 | 62 to 92 | 82 seats, 5.8% of simulations | 94% |
| Québec solidaire | 15 | 9 to 25 | 14 seats, 10.9% of simulations | <1% |
What changed
New poll
- Leger, fieldwork to 6 Nov 2022, 1,028 respondentsCoalition Avenir Québec 36 · Québec solidaire 19 · Parti Québécois 18 · Liberal 14 · Conservative 11
First projection
This is the first projection since the 2022 election.
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Parti Québécois | Liberal | Coalition Avenir Québec | Québec solidaire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 1 | 11 | 29 | 5 |
| Likely 80–95% | 2 | 5 | 40 | 5 |
| Leans 60–80% | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Toss-up <60% | 16 | |||
Quebec
Greater Montreal
Montreal and Laval
Quebec City
Seats changing hands
Won in 2022Projected
PQParti Québécois3
PLQLiberal21
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92
QSQuébec solidaire11
PQParti Québécois4
PLQLiberal19
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec77
QSQuébec solidaire11
Toss-upToss-up16
| Party | 2022 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQParti Québécois | 3 | 4 | 1 | – | – |
| PLQLiberal | 21 | 19 | – | – | 2 |
| CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | 92 | 77 | – | 1 | 14 |
| QSQuébec solidaire | 11 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Toss-up | 16 | ||||
The path to a majority
Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Montmorency, 87% · chance of a majority 94%
All 127 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 42 (28–56) · QS 17 (7–29) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 95% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.8 (28–56)Québec solidaire17.1 (7–29)Parti Québécois15.5 (6–26)Liberal14.1 (5–25) |
| Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.1 (27–55)Parti Québécois24.7 (13–37)Québec solidaire20.1 (9–32) |
| AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 41 (27–55) · QS 21 (10–33) | Liberal 42.2% | PLQLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal40.7 (27–55)Québec solidaire20.8 (10–33)Coalition Avenir Québec13.1 (4–24)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23) |
| Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%CAQ 30 (18–44) · PLQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 48% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec30.4 (18–44)Liberal29.8 (17–43)Québec solidaire18.3 (8–30)Parti Québécois13.9 (5–25) |
| ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 40 (26–54) · PQ 19 (8–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.1 (26–54)Parti Québécois19.1 (8–31)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–24)Conservative12.1 (4–22)Liberal10.8 (2–21) |
| Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PCQ 22 (11–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec47.1 (33–61)Conservative21.8 (11–33)Parti Québécois13.0 (4–23)Québec solidaire12.5 (3–23) |
| Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%CAQ 40 (26–54) · PCQ 40 (26–53) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec39.9 (26–54)Conservative39.7 (26–53) |
| Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PCQ 41 (27–54) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec41.1 (27–55)Conservative40.5 (27–54) |
| BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 48 (33–62) · PQ 20 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec47.6 (33–62)Parti Québécois19.9 (9–31)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–28) |
| BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%CAQ 42 (28–55) · PCQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 77% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec41.7 (28–55)Conservative32.1 (19–45)Parti Québécois11.7 (3–22) |
| BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.4 (29–57)Parti Québécois22.2 (11–34)Québec solidaire18.5 (8–30) |
| BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.0 (31–58)Parti Québécois24.6 (13–37)Québec solidaire17.2 (7–29) |
| BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 24 (13–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.2 (26–53)Parti Québécois24.3 (13–36)Québec solidaire19.6 (9–31) |
| BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec43.6 (30–58)Parti Québécois18.7 (8–30)Québec solidaire17.4 (7–29)Liberal10.5 (2–20) |
| BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%CAQ 39 (25–53) · PQ 35 (22–48) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 61% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.5 (25–53)Parti Québécois34.9 (22–48)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–25) |
| BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.6 (31–58)Parti Québécois23.3 (12–35)Québec solidaire18.8 (8–30) |
| Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 21 (9–33) | Liberal 40.1% | PLQLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal39.3 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec20.6 (9–33)Québec solidaire19.0 (9–31)Parti Québécois11.2 (3–21) |
| Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 40 (27–54) · QS 20 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.1 (27–54)Québec solidaire19.7 (9–31)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–25)Liberal12.2 (3–22) |
| Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 47 (32–60) · CAQ 26 (15–39) | Parti Québécois 41.6% | PQParti QuébécoisLikely | 92% | Likely | Parti Québécois46.5 (32–60)Coalition Avenir Québec26.4 (15–39)Liberal15.5 (6–26) |
| ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 42 (29–56) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.4 (29–56)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–33)Québec solidaire19.9 (9–32) |
| ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 15 (5–26) | Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 98% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec50.8 (37–65)Parti Québécois15.2 (5–26)Conservative15.2 (6–26)Québec solidaire11.9 (3–22) |
| ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 47 (33–61) · QS 17 (7–28) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 98% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.8 (33–61)Québec solidaire16.8 (7–28)Liberal12.9 (4–23)Parti Québécois12.3 (3–23) |
| CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%CAQ 40 (25–55) · PCQ 18 (6–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 89% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.8 (25–55)Conservative17.6 (6–30)Parti Québécois17.4 (6–30)Québec solidaire16.4 (5–29) |
| Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 20 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.7 (29–56)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–31)Québec solidaire15.8 (6–27)Conservative15.5 (6–26) |
| ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%CAQ 42 (27–58) · PCQ 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.4 (27–58)Conservative28.8 (16–42)Québec solidaire11.8 (2–24)Parti Québécois10.3 (1–21) |
| ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 56 (42–69) · PQ 17 (7–29) | Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 99% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec56.0 (42–69)Parti Québécois17.4 (7–29)Québec solidaire15.3 (5–27) |
| ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 22 (10–35) | Liberal 37.1% | PLQLiberalLikely | 85% | Likely | Liberal36.8 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec21.8 (10–35)Conservative17.8 (8–29)Québec solidaire10.8 (2–21) |
| Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 43 (28–58) · PCQ 24 (12–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 89% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.5 (28–58)Conservative24.2 (12–38)Parti Québécois14.2 (4–26)Québec solidaire12.4 (2–24) |
| ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PLQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.0 (21–48)Liberal24.3 (12–37)Québec solidaire16.0 (6–27)Parti Québécois14.6 (5–25) |
| Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PCQ 21 (10–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.3 (29–57)Conservative20.9 (10–32)Parti Québécois16.3 (6–28)Québec solidaire12.5 (3–23) |
| D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 50 (35–64) · PCQ 19 (9–30) | Liberal 51.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal50.4 (35–64)Conservative19.0 (9–30)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–22)Other10.6 (1–20) |
| Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.9 (33–61)Parti Québécois18.5 (8–30)Québec solidaire17.8 (7–29)Conservative11.1 (3–21) |
| Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 21 (10–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.3 (28–55)Parti Québécois20.7 (10–32)Québec solidaire17.5 (7–29) |
| Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.3 (32–60)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Conservative14.8 (6–25)Québec solidaire13.8 (4–25) |
| DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 52 (38–65) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 98% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec51.6 (38–65)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–33)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24) |
| DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 79% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.6 (26–53)Parti Québécois29.1 (17–42)Conservative13.1 (4–23)Québec solidaire12.1 (3–23) |
| FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 30 (17–44) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Liberal30.4 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec27.2 (15–40)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25)Conservative12.8 (4–23)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23) |
| GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 43 (28–56) · CAQ 35 (22–49) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Parti Québécois42.5 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec35.3 (22–49)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22) |
| GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PLQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.7 (28–56)Liberal19.0 (8–30)Québec solidaire15.3 (6–27)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23) |
| GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 63 (49–75) · PQ 15 (5–26) | Québec solidaire 59.4% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | >99% | Solid | Québec solidaire63.0 (49–75)Parti Québécois15.3 (5–26) |
| GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 52 (38–66) · QS 18 (7–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 98% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec52.2 (38–66)Québec solidaire17.9 (7–30)Parti Québécois14.8 (5–26) |
| GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%CAQ 42 (28–55) · QS 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.0 (28–55)Québec solidaire19.9 (9–32)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Liberal10.4 (2–20) |
| Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 55 (40–68) · PQ 18 (8–30) | Québec solidaire 50.8% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 99% | Solid | Québec solidaire54.9 (40–68)Parti Québécois18.1 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec13.8 (4–25) |
| HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%CAQ 30 (17–44) · PLQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec30.1 (17–44)Liberal24.6 (13–37)Québec solidaire24.4 (13–37)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23) |
| HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 15 (6–27) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec41.8 (28–56)Parti Québécois15.4 (6–27)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–26)Liberal13.3 (4–24)Conservative11.0 (3–21) |
| IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec47.2 (33–61)Parti Québécois18.7 (8–30)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–29) |
| Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 62 (47–74) · Oth 10 (1–19) | Liberal 62.6% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal61.6 (47–74)Other9.5 (1–19) |
| Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 43 (28–57) · CAQ 26 (12–41) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 87% | Likely | Québec solidaire42.7 (28–57)Coalition Avenir Québec25.6 (12–41)Parti Québécois13.3 (3–25)Conservative11.2 (2–22) |
| Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%QS 28 (15–42) · CAQ 27 (13–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5% | QSQuébec solidairegain from CAQToss-up | 43% | Toss-up | Québec solidaire27.8 (15–42)Coalition Avenir Québec27.1 (13–42)Parti Québécois21.7 (10–35)Liberal12.5 (3–23) |
| Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 53 (38–67) · QS 14 (4–25) | Liberal 53.9% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal53.2 (38–67)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–25)Coalition Avenir Québec12.9 (3–24) |
| JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%CAQ 39 (25–53) · PQ 36 (22–49) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 61% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.2 (25–53)Parti Québécois35.7 (22–49)Québec solidaire14.1 (5–25) |
| JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 53 (39–67) · PQ 23 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec53.1 (39–67)Parti Québécois23.3 (12–36)Québec solidaire11.8 (3–22) |
| L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 50 (36–64) · PQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec50.4 (36–64)Parti Québécois18.8 (8–30)Québec solidaire18.0 (8–30) |
| La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 40 (25–56) · PCQ 26 (13–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 83% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.0 (25–56)Conservative25.8 (13–39)Parti Québécois13.0 (3–25)Québec solidaire12.4 (2–25) |
| La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 38 (24–52) · CAQ 27 (14–40) | Liberal 38.5% | PLQLiberalLeans | 80% | Leans | Liberal37.9 (24–52)Coalition Avenir Québec26.7 (14–40)Québec solidaire12.9 (4–24)Parti Québécois10.3 (2–20) |
| La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 47 (33–61) · QS 17 (6–27) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec47.1 (33–61)Québec solidaire16.5 (6–27)Parti Québécois14.5 (5–25)Liberal13.4 (4–24) |
| LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 51 (36–65) · CAQ 16 (6–28) | Liberal 51.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal51.1 (36–65)Coalition Avenir Québec16.2 (6–28)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)Conservative11.0 (3–21) |
| LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec47.0 (33–61)Parti Québécois22.9 (11–35)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–27) |
| Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 30 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.4 (31–59)Parti Québécois30.2 (18–43)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20) |
| Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 53 (39–66) · PLQ 18 (7–29) | Québec solidaire 48.8% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 99% | Solid | Québec solidaire53.1 (39–66)Liberal17.8 (7–29)Parti Québécois12.1 (3–22) |
| Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 28 (15–41) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 46% | Toss-up | Liberal27.9 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec27.1 (15–40)Québec solidaire19.7 (9–32)Parti Québécois15.5 (6–26) |
| Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 20 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.6 (33–60)Parti Québécois19.7 (9–31)Conservative14.3 (5–25)Québec solidaire12.5 (3–23) |
| Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 20 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec44.2 (31–58)Parti Québécois20.0 (9–31)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27) |
| Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PCQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 78% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.3 (26–53)Conservative29.2 (17–42)Québec solidaire12.5 (3–23)Parti Québécois11.8 (3–22) |
| Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 42 (26–57) · PQ 20 (8–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 91% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.6 (26–57)Parti Québécois20.0 (8–33)Québec solidaire15.3 (4–28)Conservative12.1 (2–24) |
| LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 43 (28–59) · PCQ 18 (7–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.4 (28–59)Conservative18.1 (7–31)Parti Québécois16.1 (5–28)Québec solidaire14.8 (4–27) |
| Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 19 (8–32) | Liberal 44.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 95% | Solid | Liberal44.0 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec19.0 (8–32)Québec solidaire13.1 (4–24) |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 18 (8–29) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.1 (32–60)Parti Québécois17.9 (8–29)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–29)Conservative13.2 (4–24) |
| Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 28 (16–41) · CAQ 28 (16–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 39% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois28.3 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec27.5 (16–40)Québec solidaire26.2 (14–39) |
| MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 46 (31–60) · CAQ 18 (7–30) | Liberal 46.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal45.9 (31–60)Coalition Avenir Québec17.8 (7–30)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–26)Parti Québécois10.5 (2–21) |
| MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PQ 18 (7–29) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec48.3 (34–62)Parti Québécois17.6 (7–29)Conservative13.7 (5–24)Québec solidaire13.0 (4–24) |
| MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.3 (32–60)Parti Québécois22.2 (11–34)Québec solidaire16.6 (7–28) |
| Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 71 (58–82) · CAQ 13 (3–24) | Parti Québécois 67.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | >99% | Solid | Parti Québécois71.3 (58–82)Coalition Avenir Québec12.5 (3–24) |
| Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%QS 39 (26–53) · CAQ 22 (11–34) | Québec solidaire 34.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 89% | Likely | Québec solidaire39.3 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec21.8 (11–34)Parti Québécois17.2 (7–28)Liberal16.0 (6–27) |
| MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 58 (43–71) · PQ 16 (6–27) | Québec solidaire 53.9% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 99% | Solid | Québec solidaire57.7 (43–71)Parti Québécois16.4 (6–27)Liberal12.4 (4–23) |
| Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 31 (18–45) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Liberal 31.8% | PLQLiberalLeans | 61% | Leans | Liberal31.0 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec26.8 (15–40)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27)Parti Québécois15.2 (6–26) |
| MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec44.5 (31–58)Parti Québécois20.2 (9–32)Québec solidaire17.6 (7–29) |
| Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 38 (24–52) · QS 24 (12–37) | Liberal 39.4% | PLQLiberalLikely | 85% | Likely | Liberal37.8 (24–52)Québec solidaire23.9 (12–37)Parti Québécois13.8 (4–24)Coalition Avenir Québec11.7 (2–23) |
| MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.9 (26–53)Parti Québécois22.2 (11–34)Québec solidaire19.5 (9–32)Liberal11.5 (3–22) |
| MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 40 (25–56) · PCQ 23 (11–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.3 (25–56)Conservative23.0 (11–36)Québec solidaire15.4 (4–28)Parti Québécois14.3 (4–26) |
| MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PCQ 19 (9–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.2 (27–55)Conservative19.0 (9–30)Québec solidaire17.2 (7–29)Parti Québécois15.8 (6–27) |
| NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 52 (37–65) · CAQ 13 (4–24) | Liberal 52% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal51.5 (37–65)Coalition Avenir Québec12.9 (4–24)Conservative12.8 (4–23) |
| Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 21 (10–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.8 (28–56)Parti Québécois20.6 (10–32)Conservative20.1 (10–32)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22) |
| Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 48 (33–62) · QS 19 (8–31) | Liberal 50.5% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal48.2 (33–62)Québec solidaire18.7 (8–31)Other14.3 (2–25) |
| OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%CAQ 37 (24–51) · QS 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec37.3 (24–51)Québec solidaire20.0 (9–32)Parti Québécois16.7 (6–28)Liberal14.5 (5–25) |
| PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 48 (34–62) · QS 17 (7–29) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 98% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec47.6 (34–62)Québec solidaire17.4 (7–29)Parti Québécois13.2 (4–24)Conservative10.9 (3–20) |
| Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 28 (15–40) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 46% | Toss-up | Liberal27.7 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec25.9 (14–39)Québec solidaire21.3 (10–33)Parti Québécois15.0 (5–26) |
| Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 24 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.7 (26–53)Parti Québécois23.5 (12–35)Québec solidaire18.7 (8–30) |
| PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 43 (28–56) · CAQ 21 (9–34) | Liberal 43.7% | PLQLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal42.9 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec20.6 (9–34)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–24) |
| PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PCQ 28 (16–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.0 (29–57)Conservative27.8 (16–40)Parti Québécois12.9 (4–23)Québec solidaire11.4 (2–22) |
| PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PQ 23 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.4 (27–54)Parti Québécois23.4 (12–36)Québec solidaire18.6 (8–30) |
| René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%CAQ 53 (39–66) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec52.8 (39–66)Parti Québécois25.4 (13–38)Québec solidaire10.1 (1–20) |
| RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.5 (33–60)Parti Québécois21.0 (10–33)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27) |
| RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec48.8 (35–62)Parti Québécois24.7 (13–37)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–24) |
| RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 41 (27–54) · QS 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.6 (27–54)Québec solidaire25.8 (14–39)Parti Québécois15.4 (6–26)Conservative11.1 (3–21) |
| RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PQ 32 (20–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec35.0 (22–48)Parti Québécois32.3 (20–45)Québec solidaire24.8 (13–37) |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec46.0 (32–60)Parti Québécois21.1 (10–33)Québec solidaire18.1 (8–30) |
| Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 57 (42–70) · PCQ 14 (5–24) | Liberal 57.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal57.1 (42–70)Conservative13.6 (5–24) |
| RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec50.9 (37–65)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–37) |
| RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 42 (28–56) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 90% | Likely | Québec solidaire41.7 (28–56)Parti Québécois23.8 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec17.8 (7–29)Liberal10.6 (2–21) |
| RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 22 (11–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 95% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.9 (31–59)Parti Québécois21.7 (11–33)Québec solidaire16.5 (6–28)Conservative12.6 (4–23) |
| Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 39 (25–52) · QS 36 (23–49) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec38.7 (25–52)Québec solidaire35.8 (23–49)Parti Québécois13.7 (4–24) |
| Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 36 (23–50) · QS 33 (20–47) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec36.4 (23–50)Québec solidaire33.1 (20–47)Parti Québécois11.2 (3–21) |
| Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 34 (21–48) · QS 32 (19–45) | Liberal 36.2% | PLQLiberalToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Liberal34.3 (21–48)Québec solidaire31.9 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec13.4 (4–25)Parti Québécois10.4 (2–20) |
| Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 20 (10–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 97% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec48.5 (35–62)Parti Québécois20.3 (10–32)Québec solidaire17.1 (7–29) |
| Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.4 (31–58)Parti Québécois22.9 (12–35)Québec solidaire18.2 (8–30) |
| Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.7 (30–57)Parti Québécois22.4 (11–34)Québec solidaire19.3 (9–31) |
| Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 49 (34–63) · QS 13 (4–24) | Liberal 50% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal49.0 (34–63)Québec solidaire12.8 (4–24)Conservative11.6 (3–21)Coalition Avenir Québec10.6 (2–21) |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 52 (38–65) · PQ 17 (7–28) | Québec solidaire 47.6% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 98% | Solid | Québec solidaire51.9 (38–65)Parti Québécois16.8 (7–28)Liberal14.3 (5–25) |
| Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%CAQ 33 (21–47) · PLQ 23 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 75% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec33.3 (21–47)Liberal23.3 (12–36)Québec solidaire17.8 (7–30)Parti Québécois15.2 (6–26) |
| SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 20 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 95% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.1 (30–57)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–31)Québec solidaire16.4 (6–28) |
| SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 47 (33–60) · CAQ 29 (17–43) | Québec solidaire 41.9% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 89% | Likely | Québec solidaire47.0 (33–60)Coalition Avenir Québec29.1 (17–43)Parti Québécois11.2 (2–21) |
| SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PLQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 83% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec36.2 (23–50)Liberal23.2 (11–35)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–24)Parti Québécois12.7 (4–23)Conservative10.5 (3–20) |
| TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%CAQ 35 (22–49) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.4 (22–49)Parti Québécois23.7 (12–36)Québec solidaire22.6 (11–35)Liberal10.9 (2–21) |
| TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%QS 44 (29–58) · PQ 25 (12–39) | Québec solidaire 39.5% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 89% | Likely | Québec solidaire43.5 (29–58)Parti Québécois25.2 (12–39)Coalition Avenir Québec16.6 (4–31) |
| TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 23 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.8 (30–57)Parti Québécois22.6 (11–34)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27) |
| Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 45 (31–59) · QS 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 95% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.0 (31–59)Québec solidaire20.1 (9–32)Parti Québécois17.6 (7–29)Conservative10.1 (2–19) |
| UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%CAQ 31 (18–45) · QS 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec30.9 (18–45)Québec solidaire28.6 (16–42)Liberal17.3 (7–29)Parti Québécois15.4 (6–26) |
| VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%CAQ 39 (26–53) · QS 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.3 (26–53)Québec solidaire18.5 (8–30)Parti Québécois16.5 (6–27)Liberal15.5 (6–27) |
| Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 43 (28–58) · PCQ 17 (6–29) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.7 (28–58)Conservative16.9 (6–29)Parti Québécois16.4 (5–29)Québec solidaire15.5 (4–28) |
| VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 34 (20–47) · CAQ 28 (16–42) | Liberal 34.2% | PLQLiberalLeans | 66% | Leans | Liberal33.6 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec28.3 (16–42)Québec solidaire12.2 (3–23)Parti Québécois10.2 (2–20) |
| VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 24 (13–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.4 (31–59)Parti Québécois24.3 (13–36)Québec solidaire17.9 (8–29) |
| VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%QS 35 (22–49) · PLQ 28 (15–41) | Québec solidaire 30.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 70% | Leans | Québec solidaire35.3 (22–49)Liberal27.8 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec18.1 (8–30)Parti Québécois10.5 (2–20) |
| ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 36 (23–50) · QS 35 (22–48) | Liberal 38.3% | PLQLiberalToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Liberal36.2 (23–50)Québec solidaire34.7 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec11.0 (2–22) |
| Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%CAQ 30 (17–43) · PLQ 29 (16–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.6 (17–43)Liberal29.3 (16–43)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–26)Parti Québécois13.4 (4–24)Conservative10.7 (3–20) |
| Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 49 (34–62) · QS 16 (6–28) | Liberal 50.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal48.7 (34–62)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–28)Other12.1 (1–22) |
| Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 51 (37–64) · CAQ 33 (20–46) | Parti Québécois 46.4% | PQParti QuébécoisLikely | 90% | Likely | Parti Québécois50.7 (37–64)Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (20–46) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 18.0 | 18.0–18.0 |
| Liberal | 14.0 | 14.0–14.0 |
| Conservative | 11.0 | 11.0–11.0 |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 36.0 | 36.0–36.0 |
| Québec solidaire | 19.0 | 19.0–19.0 |
| Others | 2.0 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 6 Nov 2022, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100.
Polls included (1)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | LegerNew | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 19 |
Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2022 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | Forum Research, Research Co. | 52 | 35 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 18% | <1% | 81% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas | 50 | 34 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 17% | 1% | 82% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Leger, Synopsis | 47 | 34 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 14% | 1% | 85% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Pallas | 45 | 33 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 11% | 2% | 87% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Leger | 44 | 33 | 10 | 31 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Pallas, Segma | 44 | 33 | 10 | 32 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Nanos | 42 | 34 | 9 | 34 | 6 | 9% | 3% | 88% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis | 41 | 33 | 9 | 35 | 6 | 8% | 4% | 88% |
72 earlier projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | PLQLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 46 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 13% | <1% | 84% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Leger | 47 | 33 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 47 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Leger | 48 | 33 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 82% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 49 | 34 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 16% | <1% | 82% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Synopsis | 50 | 34 | 8 | 28 | 6 | 18% | <1% | 80% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Leger | 57 | 36 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 31% | 1% | 68% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Leger | 59 | 37 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 36% | 1% | 63% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 39 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 39% | 1% | 60% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Leger | 53 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 21% | 1% | 77% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Pallas Data | 52 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 19% | 1% | 79% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Synopsis | 51 | 41 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 18% | 2% | 79% |
| 18 May 2026 | Leger | 51 | 44 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 17% | 4% | 78% |
| 15 May 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 51 | 46 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 17% | 5% | 77% |
| 10 May 2026 | Synopsis | 59 | 45 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34% | 5% | 61% |
| 9 May 2026 | Pallas Data | 59 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35% | 5% | 59% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 62 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 44% | 7% | 49% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Leger | 61 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 53% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 38% | 9% | 53% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Leger | 65 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 54% | 8% | 38% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Leger | 65 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 54% | 5% | 41% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Leger | 64 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 52% | 2% | 46% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Pallas Data | 65 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 56% | 1% | 43% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Innovative Research | 69 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 29% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Leger | 71 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 76% | 1% | 23% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Pallas Data | 76 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 88% | <1% | 12% |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Leger | 79 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 91% | <1% | 9% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid, Leger | 80 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 73 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 80% | 1% | 19% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Leger | 69 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 28% |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Pallas Data | 75 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 92% | <1% | 7% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 80 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 79 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Leger | 74 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 81% | 1% | 18% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 63 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 48% | 2% | 50% |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Leger | 63 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 48% | 1% | 50% |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 66 | 37 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 58% | 1% | 41% |
| 11 May 2025 | Leger | 68 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 62% | <1% | 37% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Leger | 58 | 31 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 34% | <1% | 64% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Pallas Data | 62 | 32 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 47% | <1% | 53% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Leger | 60 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 40% | <1% | 58% |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Leger | 63 | 25 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Leger | 67 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 61% | <1% | 38% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Pallas Data | 72 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 74% | <1% | 25% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Leger | 70 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 68% | <1% | 32% |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Leger | 61 | 28 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 43% | <1% | 55% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 61 | 28 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 44% | <1% | 54% |
| 3 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 52 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 23% | <1% | 75% |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Leger | 48 | 27 | 6 | 33 | 11 | 16% | <1% | 81% |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 66 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 56% | <1% | 42% |
| 8 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 63 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 48% | <1% | 50% |
| 3 Jun 2024 | Leger | 60 | 27 | 4 | 26 | 9 | 42% | <1% | 56% |
| 13 May 2024 | Leger | 65 | 29 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 54% | <1% | 45% |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Leger, Pallas Data | 66 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 58% | <1% | 41% |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Leger | 64 | 24 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Pallas Data | 58 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 35% | <1% | 63% |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Leger | 59 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 38% | <1% | 61% |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Pallas Data | 62 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 12 | 46% | <1% | 53% |
| 4 Dec 2023 | Leger | 48 | 25 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 17% | <1% | 78% |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Pallas Data | 39 | 26 | 5 | 45 | 12 | 8% | <1% | 82% |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 19 | 25 | 4 | 67 | 12 | 1% | <1% | 38% |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Pallas Data | 11 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Leger | 12 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Leger | 11 | 20 | 2 | 81 | 11 | <1% | 0% | 6% |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Leger | 12 | 22 | 2 | 78 | 12 | <1% | 0% | 10% |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Angus Reid | 13 | 23 | 3 | 75 | 13 | <1% | <1% | 15% |
| 1 May 2023 | Leger | 11 | 23 | 1 | 79 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Leger | 6 | 21 | 1 | 86 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 6 | 22 | 1 | 87 | 11 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 6 Nov 2022 (this page) | Leger | 7 | 22 | 2 | 80 | 15 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
How the projection works
The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.
The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.