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Stephen Taylor

Quebec seat projection, 22 March 2026

As of 22 March 2026, from 54 polls · election day 5 October 2026

These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 22 March 2026.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the PQ win a median of 65 seats (90% range 41–81) and a majority in 54%; the Liberals 45 seats (90% range 33–63) and a majority in 5%; the Conservatives 10 seats (90% range 4–19.05); Québec solidaire 5 seats (90% range 1–9); the CAQ 1 seat (90% range 0–9). No party wins a majority in 41%.

  • Parti Québécois majority

    54%

    Most seats in 84% of simulations

  • Liberal majority

    5%

    Most seats in 15% of simulations

  • No majority

    41%

    13 ridings with no party above 60%

Projected seats by party, median and 90% range, out of 127; 64 seats are a majority.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois

65 seats (41–81) · majority 54%

Liberal

45 seats (33–63) · majority 5%

Conservative

10 seats (4–19.05)

Coalition Avenir Québec

1 seat (0–9)

Québec solidaire

5 seats (1–9)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in <1%.

Seat distributions

Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

Median 65, 90%: 41–81

Majority in 54%

Most frequent: 67 (4.2%)

Liberal

Median 45, 90%: 33–63

Majority in 5%

Most frequent: 45 (5.8%)

Conservative

Median 10, 90%: 4–19.05

Most frequent: 10 (10.5%)

Coalition Avenir Québec

Median 1, 90%: 0–9

Most frequent: 0 (34.5%)

Québec solidaire

Median 5, 90%: 1–9

Most frequent: 4 (16.3%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
PartyMedian seats90% rangeMost frequentChance of a majority
Parti Québécois6541 to 8167 seats, 4.2% of simulations54%
Liberal4533 to 6345 seats, 5.8% of simulations5%
Conservative104 to 19.0510 seats, 10.5% of simulations<1%
Coalition Avenir Québec10 to 90 seats, 34.5% of simulations0%
Québec solidaire51 to 94 seats, 16.3% of simulations0%
The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 64 of 127 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

  • Leger, fieldwork to 22 Mar 2026, 1,003 respondentsParti Québécois 33 · Liberal 33 · Conservative 15 · Coalition Avenir Québec 9 · Québec solidaire 9

Change since 2 Mar 2026

  • Median seats: Parti Québécois +1, Liberal +3, Conservative −1, Coalition Avenir Québec −2, Québec solidaire 0.
  • Chance of a majority, in points: Parti Québécois +2, Liberal +2; no majority −4.
  • Projected leader changed in 1 riding: Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques (Québec solidaire to Liberal).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
Parti QuébécoisLiberalConservativeQuébec solidaire
Solid 95%+102820
Likely 80–95%35431
Leans 60–80%19921
Toss-up <60%13

Quebec

Greater Montreal

Montreal and Laval

Quebec City

Seats changing hands

Won in 2022Projected
PQ3
PLQ21
CAQ92
QS11
PQ64
PLQ41
PCQ7
QS2
Toss-up13
Ridings by party: won in 2022, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party2022ProjectedGainsLossesToss-ups
PQ36461––
PLQ214120––
PCQ077––
CAQ920–839
QS112–54
Toss-up 13 
Each riding from the party that won it at the 2022 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2022 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, 61% · chance of a majority 54%

Liberal64th-best riding: Granby, 11% · chance of a majority 5%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 64 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 64th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 127 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.

All 127 ridings: 2022 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
Abitibi-Est2022: CAQ 47.2%PLQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 29 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%PLQgain from CAQLeans66%LeansLiberal34.1 (21–48)Parti Québécois28.5 (16–41)Conservative14.1 (5–25)Coalition Avenir Québec13.8 (5–24)
Abitibi-Ouest2022: CAQ 46.7%PQ 43 (29–58) · PLQ 18 (7–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%PQgain from CAQLikely95%LikelyParti Québécois43.4 (29–58)Liberal18.4 (7–31)Coalition Avenir Québec14.0 (5–25)Conservative12.8 (4–23)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20)
Acadie2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 60 (47–73) · PQ 18 (7–30)Liberal 42.2%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal60.4 (47–73)Parti Québécois18.0 (7–30)Conservative10.0 (2–19)
Anjou-Louis-Riel2022: CAQ 35.5%PLQ 54 (39–67) · PQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5%PLQgain from CAQSolid98%SolidLiberal53.6 (39–67)Parti Québécois22.9 (11–35)
Argenteuil2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 33 (20–47) · PLQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%PQgain from CAQLeans64%LeansParti Québécois33.0 (20–47)Liberal27.8 (15–41)Conservative16.6 (7–28)Coalition Avenir Québec12.6 (4–23)
Arthabaska-L'Érable2022: CAQ 51.8%PCQ 31 (18–44) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8%PCQgain from CAQToss-up57%Toss-upConservative30.9 (18–44)Parti Québécois27.2 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec18.3 (8–29)Liberal16.8 (6–29)
Beauce-Nord2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 51 (37–64) · PQ 19 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4%PCQgain from CAQSolid97%SolidConservative50.9 (37–64)Parti Québécois19.2 (8–31)Liberal14.4 (4–26)Coalition Avenir Québec12.5 (4–22)
Beauce-Sud2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 53 (38–66) · PQ 16 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%PCQgain from CAQSolid98%SolidConservative52.5 (38–66)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–28)Liberal14.8 (5–26)Coalition Avenir Québec13.2 (4–24)
Beauharnois2022: CAQ 53.5%PQ 37 (24–51) · PLQ 21 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%PQgain from CAQLikely85%LikelyParti Québécois37.2 (24–51)Liberal21.4 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec18.7 (8–30)Conservative12.2 (4–23)
Bellechasse2022: CAQ 45.7%PCQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 24 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7%PCQgain from CAQLikely89%LikelyConservative41.9 (28–56)Parti Québécois23.9 (12–37)Liberal16.6 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec13.8 (5–24)
Bellefeuille2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 40 (26–54) · PLQ 19 (8–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%PQgain from CAQLikely91%LikelyParti Québécois40.2 (26–54)Liberal19.4 (8–32)Coalition Avenir Québec15.5 (6–26)Conservative14.8 (5–26)
Berthier2022: CAQ 51.2%PQ 45 (30–59) · CAQ 17 (7–28)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2%PQgain from CAQSolid96%SolidParti Québécois44.6 (30–59)Coalition Avenir Québec17.1 (7–28)Conservative14.0 (5–25)Liberal13.7 (4–25)
Bertrand2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 42 (28–56) · PLQ 19 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%PQgain from CAQLikely94%LikelyParti Québécois42.1 (28–56)Liberal19.3 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec12.9 (4–23)Conservative11.8 (3–22)
Blainville2022: CAQ 49.4%PQ 34 (21–48) · PLQ 28 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4%PQgain from CAQLeans66%LeansParti Québécois33.9 (21–48)Liberal28.4 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec15.5 (6–26)Conservative12.1 (3–22)
Bonaventure2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 54 (39–67) · PLQ 22 (10–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5%PQgain from CAQSolid98%SolidParti Québécois53.6 (39–67)Liberal22.1 (10–35)Coalition Avenir Québec11.5 (3–21)
Borduas2022: CAQ 50.9%PQ 42 (28–56) · PLQ 19 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9%PQgain from CAQLikely94%LikelyParti Québécois42.2 (28–56)Liberal18.9 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec16.8 (7–28)
Bourassa-Sauvé2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 62 (48–75) · PQ 18 (7–29)Liberal 40.1%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal62.3 (48–75)Parti Québécois17.8 (7–29)
Brome-Missisquoi2022: CAQ 45.3%PLQ 31 (18–45) · PQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%PLQgain from CAQToss-up60%Toss-upLiberal31.3 (18–45)Parti Québécois27.8 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec13.2 (4–23)Conservative12.9 (4–23)
Camille-Laurin2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 57 (43–71) · PLQ 28 (16–41)Parti Québécois 41.6%PQSolid96%SolidParti Québécois57.0 (43–71)Liberal28.2 (16–41)
Chambly2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 38 (25–52) · PLQ 23 (11–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%PQgain from CAQLikely87%LikelyParti Québécois38.4 (25–52)Liberal23.1 (11–36)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (6–26)Conservative10.5 (2–20)Québec solidaire10.2 (2–20)
Champlain2022: CAQ 55.9%PQ 31 (18–44) · PCQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9%PQgain from CAQLeans62%LeansParti Québécois30.8 (18–44)Conservative22.5 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec21.0 (10–33)Liberal19.2 (8–32)
Chapleau2022: CAQ 52.2%PLQ 34 (20–47) · PQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2%PLQgain from CAQLeans71%LeansLiberal33.5 (20–47)Parti Québécois25.2 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec17.6 (8–29)Conservative13.1 (4–24)
Charlesbourg2022: CAQ 45%PQ 32 (18–47) · PCQ 24 (11–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 45%PQgain from CAQLeans66%LeansParti Québécois32.4 (18–47)Conservative24.2 (11–38)Liberal19.6 (7–33)Coalition Avenir Québec12.8 (3–24)
Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré2022: CAQ 48.2%PQ 36 (23–50) · PCQ 22 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2%PQgain from CAQLikely83%LikelyParti Québécois36.3 (23–50)Conservative22.0 (11–34)Liberal17.7 (7–30)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (5–26)
Chauveau2022: CAQ 46.8%PCQ 39 (24–54) · PQ 23 (9–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8%PCQgain from CAQLikely84%LikelyConservative39.1 (24–54)Parti Québécois22.6 (9–36)Liberal16.4 (5–30)Coalition Avenir Québec14.7 (4–27)
Chicoutimi2022: CAQ 62.3%PQ 36 (23–51) · CAQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3%PQgain from CAQLeans77%LeansParti Québécois36.3 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec26.3 (14–39)Liberal16.2 (6–28)Conservative11.9 (3–22)
Chomedey2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 58 (44–71) · PCQ 19 (9–30)Liberal 37.1%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal58.4 (44–71)Conservative18.9 (9–30)Parti Québécois15.6 (6–27)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière2022: CAQ 47.5%PCQ 33 (19–47) · PQ 28 (14–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5%PCQgain from CAQToss-up59%Toss-upConservative32.7 (19–47)Parti Québécois27.8 (14–43)Liberal18.0 (6–32)Coalition Avenir Québec14.7 (5–27)
Châteauguay2022: CAQ 39.1%PLQ 47 (32–61) · PQ 25 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1%PLQgain from CAQLikely94%LikelyLiberal46.9 (32–61)Parti Québécois24.8 (13–37)Conservative11.0 (3–21)
Côte-du-Sud2022: CAQ 47.7%PQ 31 (18–44) · PCQ 28 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7%PQgain from CAQToss-up52%Toss-upParti Québécois30.6 (18–44)Conservative28.2 (16–41)Liberal20.7 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec14.9 (5–26)
D'Arcy-McGee2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 64 (50–77) · PCQ 17 (7–27)Liberal 51.4%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal63.9 (50–77)Conservative16.5 (7–27)
Daniel-Johnson2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 36 (22–50) · PLQ 19 (8–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%PQgain from CAQLikely83%LikelyParti Québécois35.6 (22–50)Liberal19.4 (8–32)Coalition Avenir Québec18.2 (8–30)Conservative17.1 (7–29)
Deux-Montagnes2022: CAQ 47.1%PQ 36 (23–50) · PLQ 27 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1%PQgain from CAQLeans76%LeansParti Québécois36.2 (23–50)Liberal26.7 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec13.8 (5–24)Conservative11.9 (3–22)
Drummond-Bois-Francs2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 35 (22–49) · PCQ 22 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%PQgain from CAQLikely81%LikelyParti Québécois35.3 (22–49)Conservative21.6 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec17.7 (7–29)Liberal16.8 (6–28)
Dubuc2022: CAQ 57.6%PQ 41 (27–55) · CAQ 22 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6%PQgain from CAQLikely91%LikelyParti Québécois40.8 (27–55)Coalition Avenir Québec22.0 (11–34)Conservative14.6 (5–26)Liberal14.4 (4–26)
Duplessis2022: CAQ 45.1%PQ 48 (34–61) · PCQ 18 (8–29)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1%PQgain from CAQSolid97%SolidParti Québécois47.6 (34–61)Conservative18.0 (8–29)Liberal15.4 (5–27)Coalition Avenir Québec12.5 (4–22)
Fabre2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 53 (38–67) · PQ 20 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8%PLQgain from CAQSolid98%SolidLiberal52.9 (38–67)Parti Québécois20.4 (9–33)Conservative15.0 (5–26)
Gaspé2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 62 (47–75) · PLQ 18 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4%PQgain from CAQSolid99%SolidParti Québécois61.6 (47–75)Liberal18.3 (8–30)
Gatineau2022: CAQ 46.9%PLQ 42 (27–55) · PQ 23 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9%PLQgain from CAQLikely90%LikelyLiberal41.6 (27–55)Parti Québécois23.4 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec13.4 (4–24)Conservative12.7 (4–23)
Gouin2022: QS 59.4%QS 41 (27–54) · PQ 28 (15–41)Québec solidaire 59.4%QSLikely82%LikelyQuébec solidaire41.4 (27–54)Parti Québécois27.9 (15–41)Liberal21.6 (10–34)
Granby2022: CAQ 57.9%PQ 31 (18–45) · CAQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9%PQgain from CAQLeans67%LeansParti Québécois31.4 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec23.1 (11–35)Liberal19.7 (8–32)Conservative13.9 (5–25)
Groulx2022: CAQ 47.8%PQ 34 (21–47) · PLQ 28 (15–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8%PQgain from CAQLeans66%LeansParti Québécois33.8 (21–47)Liberal28.4 (15–42)Coalition Avenir Québec14.6 (5–25)Conservative10.8 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–19)
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve2022: QS 50.8%QS 36 (23–49) · PQ 33 (20–46)Québec solidaire 50.8%QSToss-up58%Toss-upQuébec solidaire36.2 (23–49)Parti Québécois32.6 (20–46)Liberal21.1 (10–34)
Hull2022: CAQ 35.3%PLQ 48 (34–62) · PQ 22 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3%PLQgain from CAQSolid96%SolidLiberal48.3 (34–62)Parti Québécois22.1 (11–35)Québec solidaire12.0 (3–21)
Huntingdon2022: CAQ 47%PLQ 33 (19–46) · PQ 28 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 47%PLQgain from CAQLeans62%LeansLiberal32.5 (19–46)Parti Québécois28.2 (16–42)Conservative15.6 (6–26)Coalition Avenir Québec13.7 (5–24)
Iberville2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 36 (22–50) · PLQ 20 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%PQgain from CAQLikely84%LikelyParti Québécois35.8 (22–50)Liberal20.0 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec18.7 (8–30)Conservative14.5 (5–26)
Jacques-Cartier2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 74 (61–85) · PCQ 9 (1–17)Liberal 62.6%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal74.0 (61–85)Conservative8.5 (1–17)
Jean-Lesage2022: QS 37.7%QS 29 (16–42) · PQ 28 (14–43)Québec solidaire 37.7%QSToss-up46%Toss-upQuébec solidaire29.0 (16–42)Parti Québécois27.8 (14–43)Conservative17.5 (6–31)Liberal17.2 (5–30)
Jean-Talon2022: CAQ 32.5%PQ 36 (21–51) · PLQ 30 (16–44)Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5%PQgain from CAQLeans65%LeansParti Québécois35.7 (21–51)Liberal29.8 (16–44)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)Conservative11.5 (2–24)
Jeanne-Mance-Viger2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 72 (59–84) · PQ 11 (2–21)Liberal 53.9%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal71.9 (59–84)Parti Québécois10.6 (2–21)
Joliette2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 57 (42–70) · PLQ 13 (4–24)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6%PQgain from CAQSolid99%SolidParti Québécois56.5 (42–70)Liberal13.4 (4–24)Coalition Avenir Québec12.5 (4–22)Conservative10.3 (2–20)
Jonquière2022: CAQ 59.4%PQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 23 (12–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4%PQgain from CAQLikely93%LikelyParti Québécois43.8 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec23.1 (12–35)Liberal13.6 (4–25)Conservative12.6 (4–23)
L'Assomption2022: CAQ 56.8%PQ 37 (23–51) · CAQ 21 (11–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8%PQgain from CAQLikely85%LikelyParti Québécois36.9 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec21.4 (11–33)Liberal19.5 (9–32)Conservative11.1 (2–21)
La Peltrie2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 34 (20–49) · PQ 26 (12–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%PCQgain from CAQLeans66%LeansConservative34.0 (20–49)Parti Québécois25.8 (12–40)Liberal19.3 (7–33)Coalition Avenir Québec12.7 (3–24)
La Pinière2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 62 (48–75) · PQ 17 (7–29)Liberal 38.5%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal61.6 (48–75)Parti Québécois17.1 (7–29)Conservative10.0 (2–19)
La Prairie2022: CAQ 52.7%PLQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7%PLQgain from CAQLeans65%LeansLiberal34.1 (21–48)Parti Québécois28.1 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec17.7 (8–29)Conservative10.2 (2–20)
LaFontaine2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 71 (58–83) · PQ 12 (3–22)Liberal 51.7%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal71.1 (58–83)Parti Québécois11.9 (3–22)Conservative11.3 (3–21)
Labelle2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 42 (27–56) · PLQ 18 (7–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%PQgain from CAQLikely93%LikelyParti Québécois41.5 (27–56)Liberal18.4 (7–31)Coalition Avenir Québec18.2 (8–30)Conservative12.2 (3–22)
Lac-Saint-Jean2022: CAQ 51.5%PQ 50 (36–64) · CAQ 17 (7–27)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5%PQgain from CAQSolid98%SolidParti Québécois50.4 (36–64)Coalition Avenir Québec16.6 (7–27)Liberal13.9 (4–25)Conservative13.8 (4–24)
Laurier-Dorion2022: QS 48.8%PLQ 36 (23–50) · QS 31 (19–43)Québec solidaire 48.8%PLQgain from QSLeans64%LeansLiberal36.2 (23–50)Québec solidaire30.8 (19–43)Parti Québécois21.1 (10–33)
Laval-des-Rapides2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 50 (36–64) · PQ 25 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9%PLQgain from CAQSolid96%SolidLiberal50.4 (36–64)Parti Québécois24.7 (13–37)
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 36 (23–50) · PCQ 21 (10–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%PQgain from CAQLikely83%LikelyParti Québécois36.4 (23–50)Conservative20.6 (10–32)Liberal18.4 (7–31)Coalition Avenir Québec17.6 (7–29)
Les Plaines2022: CAQ 50%PQ 36 (22–50) · PLQ 23 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 50%PQgain from CAQLikely82%LikelyParti Québécois36.2 (22–50)Liberal23.3 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec16.0 (6–27)Conservative14.4 (5–25)
Lotbinière-Frontenac2022: CAQ 43.7%PCQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 24 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7%PCQgain from CAQLikely83%LikelyConservative38.2 (25–52)Parti Québécois23.7 (12–36)Liberal19.8 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec12.3 (4–22)
Louis-Hébert2022: CAQ 47.2%PQ 36 (21–51) · PLQ 24 (11–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%PQgain from CAQLeans75%LeansParti Québécois35.5 (21–51)Liberal23.8 (11–38)Conservative17.3 (6–30)Coalition Avenir Québec13.9 (4–26)
Lévis2022: CAQ 48.8%PQ 31 (17–46) · PCQ 26 (12–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8%PQgain from CAQToss-up59%Toss-upParti Québécois31.0 (17–46)Conservative25.5 (12–40)Liberal18.5 (6–32)Coalition Avenir Québec15.6 (5–28)
Marguerite-Bourgeoys2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 66 (52–78) · PQ 15 (5–26)Liberal 44.8%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal65.7 (52–78)Parti Québécois15.0 (5–26)Conservative10.0 (2–19)
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 35 (22–49) · PCQ 20 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%PQgain from CAQLikely82%LikelyParti Québécois34.8 (22–49)Conservative19.9 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec18.0 (8–29)Liberal16.3 (6–28)
Marie-Victorin2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 45 (31–58) · PLQ 24 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1%PQgain from CAQLikely93%LikelyParti Québécois44.6 (31–58)Liberal24.2 (13–37)Québec solidaire13.8 (5–24)
Marquette2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 67 (53–79) · PQ 16 (6–27)Liberal 46.8%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal67.0 (53–79)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27)
Maskinongé2022: CAQ 53.5%PQ 34 (20–47) · PCQ 20 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%PQgain from CAQLeans77%LeansParti Québécois33.8 (20–47)Conservative20.2 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec19.0 (9–31)Liberal18.9 (8–31)
Masson2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 40 (26–54) · PLQ 23 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%PQgain from CAQLikely88%LikelyParti Québécois39.9 (26–54)Liberal23.3 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec17.3 (7–28)Conservative10.9 (3–21)
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 81 (69–91) · PLQ 9 (1–18)Parti Québécois 67.4%PQSolid>99%SolidParti Québécois81.3 (69–91)Liberal8.5 (1–18)
Maurice-Richard2022: QS 34.8%PLQ 36 (23–49) · PQ 30 (17–43)Québec solidaire 34.8%PLQgain from QSLeans64%LeansLiberal36.0 (23–49)Parti Québécois29.9 (17–43)Québec solidaire23.3 (12–35)
Mercier2022: QS 53.9%QS 35 (21–47) · PLQ 28 (16–41)Québec solidaire 53.9%QSToss-up58%Toss-upQuébec solidaire34.7 (21–47)Liberal28.3 (16–41)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)
Mille-Îles2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 54 (39–67) · PQ 24 (12–36)Liberal 31.8%PLQSolid97%SolidLiberal53.5 (39–67)Parti Québécois23.7 (12–36)Conservative10.3 (2–20)
Mirabel2022: CAQ 50.4%PQ 37 (24–51) · PLQ 22 (10–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4%PQgain from CAQLikely85%LikelyParti Québécois37.0 (24–51)Liberal21.8 (10–35)Coalition Avenir Québec16.4 (7–27)Conservative14.0 (5–25)
Mont-Royal-Outremont2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 57 (43–70) · PQ 20 (9–31)Liberal 39.4%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal57.2 (43–70)Parti Québécois19.7 (9–31)
Montarville2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 38 (24–52) · PLQ 30 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%PQgain from CAQLeans73%LeansParti Québécois38.0 (24–52)Liberal29.5 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec12.9 (4–23)
Montmorency2022: CAQ 45.2%PCQ 31 (17–46) · PQ 28 (15–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%PCQgain from CAQToss-up55%Toss-upConservative31.4 (17–46)Parti Québécois28.1 (15–43)Liberal17.6 (6–31)Coalition Avenir Québec13.2 (4–25)
Mégantic2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 30 (18–44) · PCQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%PQgain from CAQToss-up57%Toss-upParti Québécois30.4 (18–44)Conservative26.3 (14–39)Liberal19.0 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec14.1 (5–25)
Nelligan2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 69 (55–81) · PCQ 12 (4–22)Liberal 52%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal68.8 (55–81)Conservative12.3 (4–22)Parti Québécois10.4 (2–20)
Nicolet-Bécancour2022: CAQ 47%PQ 36 (22–50) · PCQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 47%PQgain from CAQLeans74%LeansParti Québécois36.4 (22–50)Conservative27.0 (15–40)Liberal17.1 (6–29)Coalition Avenir Québec14.0 (5–25)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 64 (50–77) · PQ 11 (2–21)Liberal 50.5%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal63.9 (50–77)Parti Québécois11.0 (2–21)Other10.5 (1–20)
Orford2022: CAQ 42.8%PLQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 30 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8%PLQgain from CAQLeans63%LeansLiberal34.2 (21–48)Parti Québécois29.7 (17–43)Conservative12.5 (4–23)Coalition Avenir Québec11.1 (3–21)
Papineau2022: CAQ 53%PQ 28 (15–41) · PLQ 25 (13–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 53%PQgain from CAQToss-up48%Toss-upParti Québécois27.5 (15–41)Liberal25.2 (13–39)Coalition Avenir Québec18.7 (8–30)Conservative16.9 (7–28)
Pierre-Laporte2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 50 (36–64) · PQ 24 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8%PLQgain from CAQSolid96%SolidLiberal50.3 (36–64)Parti Québécois24.2 (13–37)
Pointe-aux-Trembles2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 40 (26–53) · PLQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%PQgain from CAQLikely84%LikelyParti Québécois40.0 (26–53)Liberal26.4 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec12.9 (4–23)
Pontiac2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 65 (51–78) · PQ 15 (5–26)Liberal 43.7%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal65.3 (51–78)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–26)Conservative10.0 (2–19)
Portneuf2022: CAQ 46.7%PCQ 38 (24–51) · PQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%PCQgain from CAQLeans79%LeansConservative37.6 (24–51)Parti Québécois26.3 (14–39)Liberal15.3 (5–27)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (5–26)
Prévost2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 41 (27–55) · PLQ 20 (8–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%PQgain from CAQLikely93%LikelyParti Québécois40.9 (27–55)Liberal19.5 (8–32)Conservative14.1 (5–25)Coalition Avenir Québec13.6 (4–24)
René-Lévesque2022: CAQ 58.9%PQ 47 (32–60) · CAQ 23 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9%PQgain from CAQLikely95%LikelyParti Québécois46.5 (32–60)Coalition Avenir Québec22.6 (11–34)Conservative13.3 (4–24)Liberal12.4 (3–23)
Repentigny2022: CAQ 52.6%PQ 38 (24–52) · PLQ 27 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6%PQgain from CAQLeans78%LeansParti Québécois37.7 (24–52)Liberal26.8 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec17.5 (8–28)
Richelieu2022: CAQ 54.8%PQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 19 (9–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8%PQgain from CAQLikely95%LikelyParti Québécois44.2 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec19.4 (9–31)Liberal17.1 (7–29)Conservative11.4 (3–21)
Richmond2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 31 (18–45) · PLQ 20 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%PQgain from CAQLeans73%LeansParti Québécois31.0 (18–45)Liberal20.0 (9–33)Conservative17.2 (7–28)Québec solidaire15.3 (6–26)Coalition Avenir Québec14.5 (5–25)
Rimouski2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 54 (39–67) · QS 14 (5–24)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8%PQgain from CAQSolid99%SolidParti Québécois53.7 (39–67)Québec solidaire13.8 (5–24)Liberal13.7 (4–25)Coalition Avenir Québec10.5 (2–20)
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques2022: CAQ 52.1%PQ 40 (25–53) · CAQ 18 (8–29)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1%PQgain from CAQLikely92%LikelyParti Québécois39.5 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec17.9 (8–29)Liberal16.7 (6–29)Conservative14.5 (5–25)
Robert-Baldwin2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 71 (57–82) · PCQ 12 (4–22)Liberal 57.8%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal70.5 (57–82)Conservative12.0 (4–22)
Roberval2022: CAQ 56.2%PQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 20 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2%PQgain from CAQLikely93%LikelyParti Québécois44.1 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec20.4 (9–32)Liberal17.6 (7–30)Conservative14.3 (5–25)
Rosemont2022: QS 37.7%PQ 39 (25–52) · PLQ 27 (14–40)Québec solidaire 37.7%PQgain from QSLeans76%LeansParti Québécois38.9 (25–52)Liberal26.6 (14–40)Québec solidaire24.9 (13–37)
Rousseau2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 40 (26–54) · PCQ 19 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%PQgain from CAQLikely92%LikelyParti Québécois39.9 (26–54)Conservative18.8 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec16.9 (7–28)Liberal15.7 (6–27)
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue2022: CAQ 45.2%PQ 30 (17–43) · QS 25 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%PQgain from CAQLeans61%LeansParti Québécois30.1 (17–43)Québec solidaire24.6 (13–37)Liberal18.2 (7–30)Coalition Avenir Québec14.3 (5–25)Conservative10.6 (2–21)
Saint-François2022: CAQ 42.3%PLQ 25 (12–38) · PQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3%PQgain from CAQToss-up38%Toss-upLiberal24.8 (12–38)Parti Québécois24.7 (13–38)Québec solidaire21.2 (10–33)Conservative14.3 (5–25)Coalition Avenir Québec11.8 (3–22)
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 56 (42–70) · PQ 17 (7–29)Liberal 36.2%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal56.2 (42–70)Parti Québécois17.1 (7–29)Québec solidaire15.0 (6–25)
Saint-Hyacinthe2022: CAQ 54.4%PQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 20 (9–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4%PQgain from CAQLikely89%LikelyParti Québécois38.7 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec19.9 (9–31)Liberal17.6 (7–29)Conservative12.6 (4–23)
Saint-Jean2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 41 (27–55) · PLQ 20 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%PQgain from CAQLikely92%LikelyParti Québécois41.2 (27–55)Liberal19.9 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec16.5 (7–27)Conservative10.8 (2–21)
Saint-Jérôme2022: CAQ 49.7%PQ 41 (27–55) · PLQ 17 (7–29)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7%PQgain from CAQLikely94%LikelyParti Québécois40.9 (27–55)Liberal17.2 (7–29)Coalition Avenir Québec16.2 (7–27)Conservative12.8 (4–23)
Saint-Laurent2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 66 (53–79) · PQ 13 (4–23)Liberal 50%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal66.2 (53–79)Parti Québécois12.5 (4–23)Conservative11.4 (3–21)
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques2022: QS 47.6%PLQ 32 (19–45) · QS 31 (18–43)Québec solidaire 47.6%PLQgain from QSToss-up41%Toss-upLiberal31.5 (19–45)Québec solidaire30.8 (18–43)Parti Québécois27.9 (16–41)
Sainte-Rose2022: CAQ 38.5%PLQ 46 (31–59) · PQ 26 (14–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5%PLQgain from CAQLikely92%LikelyLiberal45.8 (31–59)Parti Québécois25.7 (14–38)Conservative10.3 (2–20)
Sanguinet2022: CAQ 48.9%PQ 36 (22–49) · PLQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9%PQgain from CAQLeans76%LeansParti Québécois35.5 (22–49)Liberal26.1 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (6–26)Conservative12.9 (4–23)
Sherbrooke2022: QS 41.9%QS 34 (21–47) · PQ 26 (13–39)Québec solidaire 41.9%QSLeans70%LeansQuébec solidaire33.9 (21–47)Parti Québécois25.5 (13–39)Liberal20.8 (9–33)
Soulanges2022: CAQ 41%PLQ 46 (31–60) · PQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 41%PLQgain from CAQLikely94%LikelyLiberal45.8 (31–60)Parti Québécois22.5 (11–35)Conservative13.8 (5–24)
Taillon2022: CAQ 41.5%PQ 40 (26–54) · PLQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5%PQgain from CAQLikely81%LikelyParti Québécois39.7 (26–54)Liberal27.9 (15–41)Québec solidaire11.5 (4–21)Coalition Avenir Québec10.2 (2–20)
Taschereau2022: QS 39.5%PQ 42 (26–57) · QS 27 (15–40)Québec solidaire 39.5%PQgain from QSLikely84%LikelyParti Québécois41.7 (26–57)Québec solidaire26.7 (15–40)Liberal17.4 (6–31)
Terrebonne2022: CAQ 49.8%PQ 39 (26–53) · PLQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8%PQgain from CAQLikely84%LikelyParti Québécois39.4 (26–53)Liberal25.8 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec15.6 (6–26)
Trois-Rivières2022: CAQ 50.8%PQ 34 (21–48) · PLQ 20 (8–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8%PQgain from CAQLikely82%LikelyParti Québécois34.2 (21–48)Liberal19.8 (8–32)Coalition Avenir Québec17.3 (7–28)Conservative15.8 (6–27)Québec solidaire10.7 (2–20)
Ungava2022: CAQ 36.3%PLQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3%PLQgain from CAQLeans79%LeansLiberal38.4 (25–52)Parti Québécois27.5 (15–41)Québec solidaire15.6 (6–26)Conservative10.1 (2–20)
Vachon2022: CAQ 44.9%PLQ 36 (22–50) · PQ 29 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9%PLQgain from CAQLeans69%LeansLiberal36.0 (22–50)Parti Québécois29.4 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec12.2 (4–22)Conservative10.6 (2–20)
Vanier-Les Rivières2022: CAQ 47.6%PQ 31 (17–46) · PCQ 24 (11–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6%PQgain from CAQLeans61%LeansParti Québécois31.2 (17–46)Conservative23.8 (11–38)Liberal20.4 (8–34)Coalition Avenir Québec14.9 (5–27)
Vaudreuil2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 57 (43–70) · PQ 18 (7–29)Liberal 34.2%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal57.0 (43–70)Parti Québécois17.6 (7–29)Conservative11.5 (3–22)
Verchères2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 44 (29–57) · PLQ 19 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%PQgain from CAQLikely95%LikelyParti Québécois43.5 (29–57)Liberal18.8 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec17.3 (7–28)
Verdun2022: QS 30.7%PLQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 19 (8–31)Québec solidaire 30.7%PLQgain from QSSolid98%SolidLiberal51.2 (37–65)Parti Québécois18.8 (8–31)Québec solidaire18.6 (8–29)
Viau2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 58 (44–71) · QS 16 (7–27)Liberal 38.3%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal57.8 (44–71)Québec solidaire16.4 (7–27)Parti Québécois15.8 (6–27)
Vimont-Auteuil2022: CAQ 34.3%PLQ 52 (38–66) · PQ 22 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3%PLQgain from CAQSolid98%SolidLiberal52.1 (38–66)Parti Québécois22.0 (10–34)Conservative13.1 (4–23)
Westmount-Saint-Louis2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 65 (51–77) · PQ 12 (3–23)Liberal 50.4%PLQSolid>99%SolidLiberal65.0 (51–77)Parti Québécois12.1 (3–23)
Îles-de-la-Madeleine2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 69 (56–81) · PLQ 18 (7–30)Parti Québécois 46.4%PQSolid>99%SolidParti Québécois69.2 (56–81)Liberal17.6 (7–30)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 22 Mar 2026, with the spread of recent polls
PartyAverageSpreadChange
Parti Québécois31.630.4–32.9+0.8
Liberal30.327.7–32.9+2.4
Conservative15.414.6–16.2−0.3
Coalition Avenir Québec11.69.3–14.0−2.2
Québec solidaire9.28.3–10.0+0.3
Others1.9 −0.9

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 22 Mar 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 2 Mar 2026, in points.

Polls included (54)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterPQPLQPCQCAQQS
22 MarLegerNew1,003±3.133331599
2 MarLeger1,021–313015139
22 FebPallas Data1,075±3.030.127.116.413.710.2
1 FebInnovative Research651–312618146
29 JanLeger1,000±3.0322614177
10 JanPallas Data1,128±3.03424161111
15 Dec 2025Leger1,039±3.0352016199
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid538–4018161310
1 Dec 2025Leger1,042±3.0392113188
25 Nov 2025Pallas Data1,102±3.035.524.714.712.89.2
44 earlier polls
Earlier polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterPQPLQPCQCAQQS
10 Nov 2025Leger1,031±3.1322714178
19 Oct 2025Pallas Data1,234±2.933.326.113.912.510.3
28 Sep 2025Leger1,037±3.0362515166
15 Sep 2025Leger1,053±3.0382711167
6 Sep 2025Pallas Data1,187±2.83826.714.810.87.9
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid524–3821161211
18 Aug 2025Leger977±3.1352610179
24 Jun 2025Mainstreet Research910±3.2312914168
22 Jun 2025Leger1,056±3.0302814179
16 Jun 2025Pallas Data1,085±3.03126141512
11 May 2025Leger1,051±3.03321132010
10 Mar 2025Leger1,007±3.13019122412
1 Mar 2025Pallas Data1,120±2.931.621.61519.510.1
2 Feb 2025Leger1,017±3.13021142110
19 Jan 2025Leger1,003±3.13415112512
2 Dec 2024Leger1,002±3.13116132413
26 Nov 2024Pallas Data1,093±3.03518.312.820.411.9
11 Nov 2024Leger1,010±3.13517112113
6 Oct 2024Leger1,036±3.03217122414
26 Sep 2024Pallas Data1,111±2.933.917.61421.611.7
3 Sep 2024Pallas Data1,191±3.03117142313
25 Aug 2024Leger1,041±3.02916132415
22 Jun 2024Pallas Data1,445±2.63516.712.221.713.2
8 Jun 2024Pallas Data1,339±2.733.117.110.621.515.9
3 Jun 2024Leger1,015±3.13215102514
13 May 2024Leger1,031±3.03217122212
21 Apr 2024Leger1,026±3.13415102414
21 Apr 2024Pallas Data1,256±2.832.922.810.719.512.9
18 Mar 2024Leger1,033±3.03414102218
24 Feb 2024Pallas Data1,122±2.931.414.512.823.116.5
5 Feb 2024Leger1,032±3.03215112516
24 Jan 2024Pallas Data1,175±2.931.715.411.521.117
4 Dec 2023Leger1,040±3.03114112517
18 Nov 2023Pallas Data1,178±2.930.415.511.324.116.1
30 Oct 2023Leger1,026±3.12615123015
27 Sep 2023Pallas Data1,095±3.01914.714.634.515.4
25 Sep 2023Leger1,028±3.12214123417
21 Aug 2023Leger1,036±3.02212113715
12 Jun 2023Leger1,042±3.0231393716
3 Jun 2023Angus Reid506–2213123317
1 May 2023Leger1,201±3.02214103616
26 Feb 2023Leger1,044±3.0181494017
10 Dec 2022Leger1,002±3.11814104114
6 Nov 2022Leger1,028±3.11814113619

Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2022 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

02080642023AprJulOct2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulElection dayParti Québécois 52Liberal 35Coalition Avenir Québec 16Conservative 13Québec solidaire 7

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

0255075100%2023AprJulOct2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulMinority 81%Parti Québécois 18%Coalition Avenir Québec <1%Liberal <1%

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPQPLQPCQCAQQSPQ maj.CAQ maj.
4 Oct 2026Forum Research, Research Co.52351316718%<1%81%
3 Oct 2026Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas50341220717%1%82%
27 Sep 2026Leger, Synopsis47341126714%1%85%
26 Sep 2026Pallas45331030711%2%87%
21 Sep 2026Leger44331031710%2%87%
17 Sep 2026Pallas, Segma44331032710%2%87%
14 Sep 2026Nanos423493469%3%88%
13 Sep 2026Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis413393568%4%88%
72 earlier projections
Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPQPLQPCQCAQQSPQ maj.PLQ maj.
12 Sep 2026Pallas Data4633832613%<1%84%
6 Sep 2026Leger4733831615%<1%83%
5 Sep 2026Pallas Data4733832615%<1%83%
30 Aug 2026Leger4833830615%<1%82%
29 Aug 2026Pallas Data4934829516%<1%82%
26 Aug 2026Synopsis5034828618%<1%80%
24 Aug 2026Leger5736819531%1%68%
9 Aug 2026Leger5937815636%1%63%
2 Aug 2026Pallas Data6039813439%1%60%
15 Jun 2026Leger5339720521%1%77%
12 Jun 2026Pallas Data5239720619%1%79%
8 Jun 2026Synopsis5141720518%2%79%
18 May 2026Leger5144817417%4%78%
15 May 2026Mainstreet Research5146815417%5%77%
10 May 2026Synopsis594588434%5%61%
9 May 2026Pallas Data594587435%5%59%
27 Apr 2026Liaison Strategies624684444%7%49%
20 Apr 2026Leger614694540%6%53%
14 Apr 2026Pallas Data604992538%9%53%
6 Apr 2026Leger654781454%8%38%
22 Mar 2026 (this page)Leger6545101554%5%41%
2 Mar 2026Leger6442113552%2%46%
22 Feb 2026Pallas Data6540114556%1%43%
1 Feb 2026Innovative Research6938103470%1%29%
29 Jan 2026Leger713793576%1%23%
10 Jan 2026Pallas Data763392588%<1%12%
15 Dec 2025Leger793183491%<1%9%
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid, Leger803282492%<1%8%
25 Nov 2025Pallas Data733783480%1%19%
10 Nov 2025Leger693984470%1%28%
19 Oct 2025Pallas Data753682486%1%13%
28 Sep 2025Leger803572392%<1%7%
15 Sep 2025Leger803561393%<1%6%
6 Sep 2025Pallas Data803471493%<1%6%
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid793372592%<1%8%
18 Aug 2025Leger743755481%1%18%
24 Jun 2025Mainstreet Research634196648%2%50%
22 Jun 2025Leger633997648%1%50%
16 Jun 2025Pallas Data663796758%1%41%
11 May 2025Leger6832713662%<1%37%
10 Mar 2025Leger5831722734%<1%64%
1 Mar 2025Pallas Data6232816647%<1%53%
2 Feb 2025Leger6029624740%<1%58%
19 Jan 2025Leger6325427750%<1%48%
2 Dec 2024Leger6727617861%<1%38%
26 Nov 2024Pallas Data7228513774%<1%25%
11 Nov 2024Leger7027516868%<1%32%
6 Oct 2024Leger6128623843%<1%55%
26 Sep 2024Pallas Data6128722844%<1%54%
3 Sep 2024Pallas Data52287291023%<1%75%
25 Aug 2024Leger48276331116%<1%81%
22 Jun 2024Pallas Data6626520956%<1%42%
8 Jun 2024Pallas Data63274221048%<1%50%
3 Jun 2024Leger6027426942%<1%56%
13 May 2024Leger6529519854%<1%45%
21 Apr 2024Leger, Pallas Data6629418958%<1%41%
18 Mar 2024Leger64245211250%<1%48%
24 Feb 2024Pallas Data58255261235%<1%63%
5 Feb 2024Leger59255251238%<1%61%
24 Jan 2024Pallas Data62265201246%<1%53%
4 Dec 2023Leger48254361217%<1%78%
18 Nov 2023Pallas Data3926545128%<1%82%
30 Oct 2023Leger1925467121%<1%38%
27 Sep 2023Pallas Data112337612<1%<1%12%
25 Sep 2023Leger122337612<1%<1%13%
21 Aug 2023Leger112028111<1%0%6%
12 Jun 2023Leger122227812<1%0%10%
3 Jun 2023Angus Reid132337513<1%<1%15%
1 May 2023Leger112317912<1%<1%8%
26 Feb 2023Leger62118612<1%<1%2%
10 Dec 2022Leger62218711<1%<1%2%
6 Nov 2022Leger72228015<1%<1%6%

How the projection works

The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.

The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.

Full methodology · The 2026 election results