Quebec seat projection, 26 February 2023

As of 26 February 2023, from 3 polls · election day 5 October 2026

These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 26 February 2023.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the CAQ win a median of 86 seats (90% range 72–96.05) and a majority in 98%; the Liberals 21 seats (90% range 14–28); Québec solidaire 12 seats (90% range 7–19); the PQ 6 seats (90% range 2–15); the Conservatives 1 seat (90% range 0–4). No party wins a majority in 2%.

Coalition Avenir Québec majority
98%
Most seats in >99% of simulations
No majority
2%
9 ridings with no party above 60%

64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

6 seats (2–15)

Liberal

21 seats (14–28)

Conservative

1 seat (0–4)

Coalition Avenir Québec

86 seats (72–96.05) · majority 98%

Québec solidaire

12 seats (7–19)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 2%.

Seat distributions

64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

Median 6, 90%: 2–15

Most frequent: 5 (14.8%)

Liberal

Median 21, 90%: 14–28

Most frequent: 21 (9.5%)

Conservative

Median 1, 90%: 0–4

Most frequent: 0 (48.0%)

Coalition Avenir Québec

Median 86, 90%: 72–96.05

Majority in 98%

Most frequent: 85 (6.3%)

Québec solidaire

Median 12, 90%: 7–19

Most frequent: 12 (13.5%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Parti Québécois	6	2 to 15	5 seats, 14.8% of simulations	<1%
Liberal	21	14 to 28	21 seats, 9.5% of simulations	<1%
Conservative	1	0 to 4	0 seats, 48.0% of simulations	0%
Coalition Avenir Québec	86	72 to 96.05	85 seats, 6.3% of simulations	98%
Québec solidaire	12	7 to 19	12 seats, 13.5% of simulations	<1%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 64 of 127 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Leger, fieldwork to 26 Feb 2023, 1,044 respondentsCoalition Avenir Québec 40 · Parti Québécois 18 · Québec solidaire 17 · Liberal 14 · Conservative 9

Change since 10 Dec 2022

Median seats: Parti Québécois 0, Liberal −1, Conservative 0, Coalition Avenir Québec −1, Québec solidaire +1.
Chance of a majority, in points: Coalition Avenir Québec 0; no majority 0.
No riding changed projected leader.

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Parti Québécois	Liberal	Coalition Avenir Québec	Québec solidaire
Solid 95%+	1	9	55	5
Likely 80–95%	2	7	20	2
Leans 60–80%	0	3	11	3
Toss-up <60%	9

Quebec

Greater Montreal

Montreal and Laval

Quebec City

Seats changing hands

Won in 2022Projected

PQParti Québécois3

PLQLiberal21

CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92

QSQuébec solidaire11

PQParti Québécois3

PLQLiberal19

CAQCoalition Avenir Québec86

QSQuébec solidaire10

Toss-upToss-up9

Ridings by party: won in 2022, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2022	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
PQParti Québécois	3	3	–	–	–
PLQLiberal	21	19	–	–	2
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	92	86	–	–	6
QSQuébec solidaire	11	10	–	–	1
Toss-up		9

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2022 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2022 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Pointe-aux-Trembles, 93% · chance of a majority 98%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 64 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 64th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 127 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.

All 127 ridings: 2022 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 16 (6–26)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.0 (32–60)Parti Québécois15.5 (6–26)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26)Liberal14.0 (5–25)
Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec45.3 (31–59)Parti Québécois24.6 (13–37)Québec solidaire17.8 (8–29)
AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 41 (27–55) · QS 19 (8–31)	Liberal 42.2%	PLQLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal41.2 (27–55)Québec solidaire18.9 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec16.2 (6–28)Parti Québécois12.6 (4–23)
Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PLQ 30 (17–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	63%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec34.2 (21–48)Liberal29.6 (17–43)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27)Parti Québécois13.9 (4–25)
ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 19 (8–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec44.3 (30–58)Parti Québécois19.0 (8–31)Québec solidaire11.4 (3–21)Liberal10.7 (2–20)
Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 52 (38–65) · PCQ 19 (9–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.8 (38–65)Conservative18.8 (9–30)Parti Québécois13.1 (4–23)Québec solidaire10.8 (2–21)
Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PCQ 36 (22–48)	Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	75%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec45.0 (31–59)Conservative35.7 (22–48)
Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 46 (32–61) · PCQ 36 (23–50)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	76%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec46.3 (32–61)Conservative36.4 (23–50)
BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 52 (37–66) · PQ 20 (9–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.8 (37–66)Parti Québécois19.7 (9–31)Québec solidaire14.1 (5–25)
BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PCQ 28 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	91%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec46.6 (33–60)Conservative28.4 (16–41)Parti Québécois11.9 (3–22)
BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 48 (33–62) · PQ 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.7 (33–62)Parti Québécois22.1 (11–34)Québec solidaire16.3 (6–27)
BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec49.2 (35–63)Parti Québécois24.5 (13–37)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26)
BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 24 (13–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	91%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.4 (30–57)Parti Québécois24.2 (13–36)Québec solidaire17.4 (7–29)
BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PQ 19 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.8 (34–62)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Québec solidaire15.3 (6–26)Liberal10.4 (2–20)
BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%CAQ 42 (29–57) · PQ 35 (21–48)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	72%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec42.3 (29–57)Parti Québécois34.6 (21–48)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)
BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 23 (12–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec48.7 (35–62)Parti Québécois23.1 (12–35)Québec solidaire16.6 (7–28)
Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 24 (12–37)	Liberal 40.1%	PLQLiberalLikely	86%	Likely	Liberal39.3 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec24.0 (12–37)Québec solidaire17.0 (7–29)Parti Québécois11.3 (3–21)
Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 44 (30–58) · QS 18 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec44.3 (30–58)Québec solidaire17.5 (7–29)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–25)Liberal12.1 (3–22)
Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 46 (32–60) · CAQ 30 (17–43)	Parti Québécois 41.6%	PQParti QuébécoisLikely	88%	Likely	Parti Québécois45.9 (32–60)Coalition Avenir Québec29.5 (17–43)Liberal15.2 (5–26)
ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 21 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.6 (33–60)Parti Québécois21.2 (10–33)Québec solidaire17.7 (8–29)
ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 55 (41–69) · PQ 15 (5–26)	Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec55.3 (41–69)Parti Québécois15.1 (5–26)Conservative12.6 (4–22)Québec solidaire10.1 (2–20)
ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 51 (37–65) · QS 15 (5–26)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.1 (37–65)Québec solidaire14.7 (5–26)Liberal12.7 (4–23)Parti Québécois12.3 (3–23)
CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%CAQ 44 (29–59) · PQ 18 (6–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.3 (29–59)Parti Québécois17.5 (6–30)Conservative14.9 (4–27)Québec solidaire14.5 (4–27)
Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 20 (9–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.1 (33–61)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–31)Québec solidaire13.9 (4–25)Conservative13.0 (4–23)
ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%CAQ 47 (32–63) · PCQ 25 (13–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec47.3 (32–63)Conservative25.4 (13–39)Parti Québécois10.4 (1–22)Québec solidaire10.2 (1–22)
ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 60 (46–73) · PQ 17 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec60.3 (46–73)Parti Québécois17.2 (7–29)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–24)
ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 26 (13–39)	Liberal 37.1%	PLQLiberalLikely	80%	Likely	Liberal37.0 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec25.5 (13–39)Conservative15.3 (6–26)
Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 47 (32–63) · PCQ 21 (9–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	95%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.3 (32–63)Conservative21.0 (9–34)Parti Québécois14.2 (4–26)Québec solidaire10.7 (1–22)
ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%CAQ 38 (24–52) · PLQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	85%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec37.9 (24–52)Liberal24.1 (12–36)Parti Québécois14.6 (5–25)Québec solidaire14.1 (5–25)
Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PCQ 18 (8–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.9 (34–62)Conservative18.0 (8–29)Parti Québécois16.3 (6–28)Québec solidaire10.8 (2–21)
D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 52 (36–65) · PCQ 17 (7–28)	Liberal 51.4%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal51.5 (36–65)Conservative16.7 (7–28)Other10.8 (1–21)
Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 18 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.3 (37–65)Parti Québécois18.4 (8–30)Québec solidaire15.6 (6–27)
Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%CAQ 45 (32–59) · PQ 21 (10–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec45.4 (32–59)Parti Québécois20.5 (10–32)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–26)
Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 51 (36–64) · PQ 19 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec50.7 (36–64)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Conservative12.3 (4–22)Québec solidaire12.0 (3–22)
DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 56 (42–69) · PQ 21 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec55.8 (42–69)Parti Québécois21.0 (10–33)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)
DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 29 (17–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	86%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.7 (30–57)Parti Québécois29.0 (17–42)Conservative10.8 (3–20)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20)
FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%CAQ 31 (18–45) · PLQ 30 (17–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec31.1 (18–45)Liberal30.4 (17–44)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23)Parti Québécois12.5 (4–23)Conservative10.6 (3–20)
GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 42 (28–56) · CAQ 39 (25–53)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois42.1 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec38.8 (25–53)
GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PLQ 19 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec45.9 (32–60)Liberal18.8 (8–30)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23)
GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 60 (46–73) · PQ 16 (6–27)	Québec solidaire 59.4%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	99%	Solid	Québec solidaire60.2 (46–73)Parti Québécois15.9 (6–27)Coalition Avenir Québec10.8 (2–22)
GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 57 (42–70) · QS 16 (6–27)	Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec56.5 (42–70)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–26)
GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 19 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.1 (32–59)Parti Québécois18.5 (8–30)Québec solidaire17.6 (7–29)Liberal10.3 (2–20)
Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 52 (38–66) · PQ 19 (8–30)	Québec solidaire 50.8%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	98%	Solid	Québec solidaire52.1 (38–66)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec17.0 (7–29)
HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PLQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	70%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec34.0 (21–48)Liberal24.5 (13–37)Québec solidaire22.0 (11–34)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23)
HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 15 (6–26)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.0 (32–60)Parti Québécois15.3 (6–26)Liberal13.2 (4–24)Québec solidaire12.6 (3–23)
IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 52 (38–65) · PQ 19 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.5 (38–65)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Québec solidaire15.2 (5–26)
Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 62 (47–75) · Oth 10 (1–19)	Liberal 62.6%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.0 (47–75)Other9.5 (1–19)
Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 40 (25–54) · CAQ 30 (16–45)	Québec solidaire 37.7%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	76%	Leans	Québec solidaire40.0 (25–54)Coalition Avenir Québec29.7 (16–45)Parti Québécois13.6 (3–26)
Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%CAQ 31 (16–46) · QS 25 (13–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec30.9 (16–46)Québec solidaire25.4 (13–39)Parti Québécois21.9 (10–35)Liberal12.5 (3–23)
Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 54 (39–67) · CAQ 16 (6–28)	Liberal 53.9%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal53.5 (39–67)Coalition Avenir Québec16.0 (6–28)Québec solidaire11.9 (3–22)
JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 35 (22–48)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	71%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec43.1 (29–57)Parti Québécois35.4 (22–48)Québec solidaire12.2 (4–23)
JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 57 (43–70) · PQ 23 (12–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec57.1 (43–70)Parti Québécois22.9 (12–35)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20)
L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 55 (40–68) · PQ 19 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec54.6 (40–68)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)
La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 45 (29–60) · PCQ 23 (10–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.8 (29–60)Conservative22.6 (10–35)Parti Québécois13.1 (3–25)Québec solidaire10.7 (1–22)
La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 38 (24–52) · CAQ 30 (17–44)	Liberal 38.5%	PLQLiberalLeans	71%	Leans	Liberal37.8 (24–52)Coalition Avenir Québec30.4 (17–44)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–21)Parti Québécois10.3 (2–20)
La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 14 (5–25)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.3 (37–65)Parti Québécois14.4 (5–25)Québec solidaire14.4 (5–25)Liberal13.2 (4–23)
LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 51 (37–65) · CAQ 20 (8–32)	Liberal 51.7%	PLQLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal51.3 (37–65)Coalition Avenir Québec19.5 (8–32)Québec solidaire10.1 (2–20)
LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 23 (11–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.2 (37–65)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)
Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%CAQ 50 (35–63) · PQ 30 (17–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec49.5 (35–63)Parti Québécois29.8 (17–42)
Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 51 (37–64) · PLQ 18 (8–30)	Québec solidaire 48.8%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	98%	Solid	Québec solidaire50.5 (37–64)Liberal18.2 (8–30)Parti Québécois12.5 (4–23)Coalition Avenir Québec10.5 (1–21)
Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%CAQ 31 (18–44) · PLQ 28 (15–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec30.8 (18–44)Liberal27.9 (15–41)Québec solidaire17.7 (7–29)Parti Québécois15.6 (6–26)
Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 51 (37–64) · PQ 20 (9–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.0 (37–64)Parti Québécois19.6 (9–31)Conservative11.9 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.7 (2–21)
Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%CAQ 48 (35–62) · PQ 20 (9–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec48.4 (35–62)Parti Québécois19.9 (9–31)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25)
Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PCQ 26 (14–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	91%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.1 (30–58)Conservative25.8 (14–38)Parti Québécois11.9 (3–22)Québec solidaire10.9 (2–21)
Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 46 (30–61) · PQ 20 (8–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec45.8 (30–61)Parti Québécois20.0 (8–33)Québec solidaire13.3 (3–25)
LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 48 (32–64) · PQ 16 (5–28)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec48.0 (32–64)Parti Québécois16.1 (5–28)Conservative15.4 (5–27)Québec solidaire13.0 (3–25)
Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 22 (11–35)	Liberal 44.8%	PLQLiberalLikely	93%	Likely	Liberal44.0 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec22.4 (11–35)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22)
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 51 (36–64) · PQ 18 (8–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec50.5 (36–64)Parti Québécois17.8 (8–29)Québec solidaire15.2 (5–26)Conservative10.9 (3–20)
Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%CAQ 31 (19–44) · PQ 29 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec31.2 (19–44)Parti Québécois28.5 (16–41)Québec solidaire23.8 (12–36)
MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 46 (31–60) · CAQ 21 (10–34)	Liberal 46.8%	PLQLiberalLikely	95%	Likely	Liberal45.9 (31–60)Coalition Avenir Québec21.0 (10–34)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23)Parti Québécois10.6 (2–21)
MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 53 (39–66) · PQ 18 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec52.8 (39–66)Parti Québécois17.5 (7–29)Conservative11.3 (3–21)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21)
MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 51 (37–64) · PQ 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec50.5 (37–64)Parti Québécois22.0 (11–34)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)
Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 71 (58–83) · CAQ 15 (5–27)	Parti Québécois 67.4%	PQParti QuébécoisSolid	>99%	Solid	Parti Québécois71.3 (58–83)Coalition Avenir Québec15.2 (5–27)
Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%QS 36 (23–50) · CAQ 25 (14–38)	Québec solidaire 34.8%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	79%	Leans	Québec solidaire36.4 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec25.4 (14–38)Parti Québécois17.4 (7–29)Liberal16.1 (6–27)
MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 55 (41–68) · PQ 17 (7–28)	Québec solidaire 53.9%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	99%	Solid	Québec solidaire55.0 (41–68)Parti Québécois17.0 (7–28)Liberal12.7 (4–23)
Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 31 (18–44) · CAQ 31 (18–44)	Liberal 31.8%	PLQLiberalToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Liberal30.9 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec30.5 (18–44)Parti Québécois15.3 (6–26)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25)
MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec48.7 (35–62)Parti Québécois20.1 (9–32)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–26)
Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 38 (24–52) · QS 22 (11–34)	Liberal 39.4%	PLQLiberalLikely	87%	Likely	Liberal38.2 (24–52)Québec solidaire21.9 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec14.6 (5–26)Parti Québécois14.0 (5–25)
MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.7 (30–57)Parti Québécois22.1 (11–34)Québec solidaire17.2 (7–29)Liberal11.4 (3–22)
MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 45 (30–61) · PCQ 20 (8–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.9 (30–61)Conservative20.0 (8–32)Parti Québécois14.4 (4–27)Québec solidaire13.6 (3–26)
MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PCQ 16 (7–27)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec45.7 (32–60)Conservative16.3 (7–27)Parti Québécois15.9 (6–27)Québec solidaire15.2 (5–26)
NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 52 (37–65) · CAQ 16 (6–28)	Liberal 52%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal51.7 (37–65)Coalition Avenir Québec16.0 (6–28)Conservative10.6 (3–20)
Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 46 (33–61) · PQ 21 (10–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.3 (33–61)Parti Québécois20.6 (10–32)Conservative17.3 (7–28)
Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 49 (34–63) · QS 17 (7–29)	Liberal 50.5%	PLQLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal48.8 (34–63)Québec solidaire16.9 (7–29)Other14.5 (2–26)
OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%CAQ 41 (28–55) · QS 18 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec41.4 (28–55)Québec solidaire17.8 (7–29)Parti Québécois16.7 (6–28)Liberal14.4 (5–25)
PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 52 (38–66) · QS 15 (6–26)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	99%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec52.0 (38–66)Québec solidaire15.3 (6–26)Parti Québécois13.2 (4–24)
Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%CAQ 30 (17–43) · PLQ 28 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec29.6 (17–43)Liberal27.6 (15–40)Québec solidaire19.2 (8–31)Parti Québécois15.0 (6–26)
Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 23 (12–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.7 (30–58)Parti Québécois23.4 (12–35)Québec solidaire16.5 (6–28)
PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 43 (28–56) · CAQ 24 (12–38)	Liberal 43.7%	PLQLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal42.9 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec24.0 (12–38)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22)
PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PCQ 24 (13–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	95%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.8 (34–62)Conservative24.4 (13–36)Parti Québécois13.0 (4–23)
PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 23 (12–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.6 (31–58)Parti Québécois23.3 (12–35)Québec solidaire16.4 (6–28)
René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%CAQ 57 (43–70) · PQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec56.7 (43–70)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–37)
RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%CAQ 51 (37–64) · PQ 21 (10–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec50.5 (37–64)Parti Québécois20.8 (10–32)Québec solidaire13.9 (5–25)
RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%CAQ 53 (39–66) · PQ 24 (13–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec52.8 (39–66)Parti Québécois24.4 (13–36)Québec solidaire11.6 (3–22)
RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 45 (31–59) · QS 23 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec45.0 (31–59)Québec solidaire23.3 (12–36)Parti Québécois15.5 (6–27)
RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 32 (20–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	67%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec38.8 (25–52)Parti Québécois32.2 (20–45)Québec solidaire22.3 (11–34)
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%CAQ 50 (36–64) · PQ 21 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec50.3 (36–64)Parti Québécois20.9 (10–33)Québec solidaire16.0 (6–27)
Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 58 (42–71) · PCQ 12 (3–21)	Liberal 57.8%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.7 (42–71)Conservative11.5 (3–21)
RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%CAQ 55 (41–69) · PQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec55.1 (41–69)Parti Québécois24.6 (13–37)
RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 39 (25–52) · PQ 24 (13–36)	Québec solidaire 37.7%	QSQuébec solidaireLikely	84%	Likely	Québec solidaire38.9 (25–52)Parti Québécois24.3 (13–36)Coalition Avenir Québec21.2 (10–33)Liberal10.7 (2–21)
RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 22 (11–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec49.3 (35–63)Parti Québécois21.6 (11–33)Québec solidaire14.4 (5–25)Conservative10.4 (3–19)
Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 43 (29–57) · QS 33 (20–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	77%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec43.1 (29–57)Québec solidaire32.8 (20–46)Parti Québécois13.8 (4–24)
Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 41 (27–55) · QS 30 (18–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	78%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec40.8 (27–55)Québec solidaire30.4 (18–44)Parti Québécois11.3 (3–22)
Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 35 (21–48) · QS 30 (17–43)	Liberal 36.2%	PLQLiberalLeans	65%	Leans	Liberal34.7 (21–48)Québec solidaire29.5 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec16.5 (6–28)Parti Québécois10.6 (2–21)
Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 53 (39–66) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec52.8 (39–66)Parti Québécois20.1 (9–32)Québec solidaire15.0 (5–26)
Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 23 (11–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec48.5 (35–62)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Québec solidaire16.0 (6–27)
Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%CAQ 48 (34–61) · PQ 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.8 (34–61)Parti Québécois22.3 (11–34)Québec solidaire17.1 (7–28)
Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 49 (34–64) · CAQ 14 (4–25)	Liberal 50%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.4 (34–64)Coalition Avenir Québec13.6 (4–25)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–22)
Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 49 (36–62) · PQ 17 (7–29)	Québec solidaire 47.6%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	98%	Solid	Québec solidaire49.3 (36–62)Parti Québécois17.3 (7–29)Liberal14.6 (5–25)Coalition Avenir Québec12.8 (3–24)
Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%CAQ 37 (24–51) · PLQ 23 (12–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	84%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec37.3 (24–51)Liberal23.2 (12–35)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)Parti Québécois15.2 (6–26)
SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%CAQ 47 (34–61) · PQ 20 (9–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.3 (34–61)Parti Québécois19.7 (9–31)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25)
SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 44 (30–57) · CAQ 33 (20–47)	Québec solidaire 41.9%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	78%	Leans	Québec solidaire43.9 (30–57)Coalition Avenir Québec33.3 (20–47)Parti Québécois11.4 (3–22)
SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PLQ 23 (11–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	90%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.3 (27–54)Liberal23.0 (11–35)Parti Québécois12.6 (4–23)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)
TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	86%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.3 (26–53)Parti Québécois23.7 (12–36)Québec solidaire20.2 (10–32)Liberal10.8 (2–20)
TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%QS 41 (27–56) · PQ 26 (13–39)	Québec solidaire 39.5%	QSQuébec solidaireLikely	82%	Likely	Québec solidaire40.9 (27–56)Parti Québécois25.9 (13–39)Coalition Avenir Québec20.0 (7–35)
TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%CAQ 48 (34–61) · PQ 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.9 (34–61)Parti Québécois22.4 (11–34)Québec solidaire14.1 (5–25)
Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 49 (35–63) · QS 18 (8–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec49.4 (35–63)Québec solidaire17.8 (8–29)Parti Québécois17.5 (7–29)
UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%CAQ 35 (22–49) · QS 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	73%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec35.0 (22–49)Québec solidaire26.1 (14–39)Liberal17.3 (7–29)Parti Québécois15.5 (6–26)
VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 16 (6–27)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	95%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec43.4 (30–57)Parti Québécois16.4 (6–27)Québec solidaire16.4 (6–27)Liberal15.4 (6–26)
Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 47 (32–63) · PQ 16 (5–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec47.2 (32–63)Parti Québécois16.4 (5–29)Conservative14.3 (4–26)Québec solidaire13.6 (3–26)
VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 34 (20–47) · CAQ 32 (19–46)	Liberal 34.2%	PLQLiberalToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Liberal33.5 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec32.1 (19–46)Québec solidaire10.5 (2–21)Parti Québécois10.3 (2–20)
VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 24 (13–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec49.4 (35–63)Parti Québécois24.0 (13–36)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)
VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%QS 33 (20–46) · PLQ 28 (15–41)	Québec solidaire 30.7%	QSQuébec solidaireToss-up	59%	Toss-up	Québec solidaire32.6 (20–46)Liberal28.1 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec21.5 (10–34)Parti Québécois10.6 (2–21)
ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 37 (23–51) · QS 32 (20–46)	Liberal 38.3%	PLQLiberalLeans	63%	Leans	Liberal36.7 (23–51)Québec solidaire32.3 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec14.0 (4–26)
Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%CAQ 34 (21–47) · PLQ 29 (16–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	62%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec33.5 (21–47)Liberal29.2 (16–43)Parti Québécois13.4 (4–24)Québec solidaire12.8 (4–23)
Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 49 (34–63) · QS 14 (5–26)	Liberal 50.4%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.2 (34–63)Québec solidaire14.4 (5–26)Other12.2 (1–23)
Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 50 (36–63) · CAQ 36 (23–50)	Parti Québécois 46.4%	PQParti QuébécoisLikely	83%	Likely	Parti Québécois49.7 (36–63)Coalition Avenir Québec36.1 (23–50)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 26 Feb 2023, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Parti Québécois	18.0	18.0–18.0	0
Liberal	14.0	14.0–14.0	0
Conservative	9.0	9.0–9.0	−1.2
Coalition Avenir Québec	40.0	40.0–40.0	+0.1
Québec solidaire	17.0	16.9–17.1	+1.9
Others	2.0		−0.8

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 26 Feb 2023, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 10 Dec 2022, in points.

Polls included (3)

The 3 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire
26 Feb	LegerNew	1,044	±3.0	18	14	9	40	17
10 Dec 2022	Leger	1,002	±3.1	18	14	10	41	14
6 Nov 2022	Leger	1,028	±3.1	18	14	11	36	19

Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2022 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire	PQParti Québécois maj.	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj.	Minority
4 Oct 2026	Forum Research, Research Co.	52	35	13	16	7	18%	<1%	81%
3 Oct 2026	Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas	50	34	12	20	7	17%	1%	82%
27 Sep 2026	Leger, Synopsis	47	34	11	26	7	14%	1%	85%
26 Sep 2026	Pallas	45	33	10	30	7	11%	2%	87%
21 Sep 2026	Leger	44	33	10	31	7	10%	2%	87%
17 Sep 2026	Pallas, Segma	44	33	10	32	7	10%	2%	87%
14 Sep 2026	Nanos	42	34	9	34	6	9%	3%	88%
13 Sep 2026	Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis	41	33	9	35	6	8%	4%	88%

72 earlier projections

Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire	PQParti Québécois maj.	PLQLiberal maj.	Minority
12 Sep 2026	Pallas Data	46	33	8	32	6	13%	<1%	84%
6 Sep 2026	Leger	47	33	8	31	6	15%	<1%	83%
5 Sep 2026	Pallas Data	47	33	8	32	6	15%	<1%	83%
30 Aug 2026	Leger	48	33	8	30	6	15%	<1%	82%
29 Aug 2026	Pallas Data	49	34	8	29	5	16%	<1%	82%
26 Aug 2026	Synopsis	50	34	8	28	6	18%	<1%	80%
24 Aug 2026	Leger	57	36	8	19	5	31%	1%	68%
9 Aug 2026	Leger	59	37	8	15	6	36%	1%	63%
2 Aug 2026	Pallas Data	60	39	8	13	4	39%	1%	60%
15 Jun 2026	Leger	53	39	7	20	5	21%	1%	77%
12 Jun 2026	Pallas Data	52	39	7	20	6	19%	1%	79%
8 Jun 2026	Synopsis	51	41	7	20	5	18%	2%	79%
18 May 2026	Leger	51	44	8	17	4	17%	4%	78%
15 May 2026	Mainstreet Research	51	46	8	15	4	17%	5%	77%
10 May 2026	Synopsis	59	45	8	8	4	34%	5%	61%
9 May 2026	Pallas Data	59	45	8	7	4	35%	5%	59%
27 Apr 2026	Liaison Strategies	62	46	8	4	4	44%	7%	49%
20 Apr 2026	Leger	61	46	9	4	5	40%	6%	53%
14 Apr 2026	Pallas Data	60	49	9	2	5	38%	9%	53%
6 Apr 2026	Leger	65	47	8	1	4	54%	8%	38%
22 Mar 2026	Leger	65	45	10	1	5	54%	5%	41%
2 Mar 2026	Leger	64	42	11	3	5	52%	2%	46%
22 Feb 2026	Pallas Data	65	40	11	4	5	56%	1%	43%
1 Feb 2026	Innovative Research	69	38	10	3	4	70%	1%	29%
29 Jan 2026	Leger	71	37	9	3	5	76%	1%	23%
10 Jan 2026	Pallas Data	76	33	9	2	5	88%	<1%	12%
15 Dec 2025	Leger	79	31	8	3	4	91%	<1%	9%
1 Dec 2025	Angus Reid, Leger	80	32	8	2	4	92%	<1%	8%
25 Nov 2025	Pallas Data	73	37	8	3	4	80%	1%	19%
10 Nov 2025	Leger	69	39	8	4	4	70%	1%	28%
19 Oct 2025	Pallas Data	75	36	8	2	4	86%	1%	13%
28 Sep 2025	Leger	80	35	7	2	3	92%	<1%	7%
15 Sep 2025	Leger	80	35	6	1	3	93%	<1%	6%
6 Sep 2025	Pallas Data	80	34	7	1	4	93%	<1%	6%
5 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	79	33	7	2	5	92%	<1%	8%
18 Aug 2025	Leger	74	37	5	5	4	81%	1%	18%
24 Jun 2025	Mainstreet Research	63	41	9	6	6	48%	2%	50%
22 Jun 2025	Leger	63	39	9	7	6	48%	1%	50%
16 Jun 2025	Pallas Data	66	37	9	6	7	58%	1%	41%
11 May 2025	Leger	68	32	7	13	6	62%	<1%	37%
10 Mar 2025	Leger	58	31	7	22	7	34%	<1%	64%
1 Mar 2025	Pallas Data	62	32	8	16	6	47%	<1%	53%
2 Feb 2025	Leger	60	29	6	24	7	40%	<1%	58%
19 Jan 2025	Leger	63	25	4	27	7	50%	<1%	48%
2 Dec 2024	Leger	67	27	6	17	8	61%	<1%	38%
26 Nov 2024	Pallas Data	72	28	5	13	7	74%	<1%	25%
11 Nov 2024	Leger	70	27	5	16	8	68%	<1%	32%
6 Oct 2024	Leger	61	28	6	23	8	43%	<1%	55%
26 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	61	28	7	22	8	44%	<1%	54%
3 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	52	28	7	29	10	23%	<1%	75%
25 Aug 2024	Leger	48	27	6	33	11	16%	<1%	81%
22 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	66	26	5	20	9	56%	<1%	42%
8 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	63	27	4	22	10	48%	<1%	50%
3 Jun 2024	Leger	60	27	4	26	9	42%	<1%	56%
13 May 2024	Leger	65	29	5	19	8	54%	<1%	45%
21 Apr 2024	Leger, Pallas Data	66	29	4	18	9	58%	<1%	41%
18 Mar 2024	Leger	64	24	5	21	12	50%	<1%	48%
24 Feb 2024	Pallas Data	58	25	5	26	12	35%	<1%	63%
5 Feb 2024	Leger	59	25	5	25	12	38%	<1%	61%
24 Jan 2024	Pallas Data	62	26	5	20	12	46%	<1%	53%
4 Dec 2023	Leger	48	25	4	36	12	17%	<1%	78%
18 Nov 2023	Pallas Data	39	26	5	45	12	8%	<1%	82%
30 Oct 2023	Leger	19	25	4	67	12	1%	<1%	38%
27 Sep 2023	Pallas Data	11	23	3	76	12	<1%	<1%	12%
25 Sep 2023	Leger	12	23	3	76	12	<1%	<1%	13%
21 Aug 2023	Leger	11	20	2	81	11	<1%	0%	6%
12 Jun 2023	Leger	12	22	2	78	12	<1%	0%	10%
3 Jun 2023	Angus Reid	13	23	3	75	13	<1%	<1%	15%
1 May 2023	Leger	11	23	1	79	12	<1%	<1%	8%
26 Feb 2023 (this page)	Leger	6	21	1	86	12	<1%	<1%	2%
10 Dec 2022	Leger	6	22	1	87	11	<1%	<1%	2%
6 Nov 2022	Leger	7	22	2	80	15	<1%	<1%	6%

How the projection works

The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.

The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.

Full methodology · The 2026 election results