Quebec seat projection, 30 October 2023
As of 30 October 2023, from 10 polls · election day 5 October 2026
These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 30 October 2023.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the CAQ win a median of 67 seats (90% range 40–83) and a majority in 61%; the Liberals 25 seats (90% range 16–31); the PQ 19 seats (90% range 7–44) and a majority in 1%; Québec solidaire 12 seats (90% range 6–19); the Conservatives 4 seats (90% range 0–11). No party wins a majority in 38%.
Coalition Avenir Québec majority
61%
Most seats in 94% of simulations
No majority
38%
15 ridings with no party above 60%
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
19 seats (7–44) · majority 1%
19 seats (7–44) · majority 1%
Liberal
25 seats (16–31)
25 seats (16–31)
Conservative
4 seats (0–11)
4 seats (0–11)
Coalition Avenir Québec
67 seats (40–83) · majority 61%
67 seats (40–83) · majority 61%
Québec solidaire
12 seats (6–19)
12 seats (6–19)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 2%.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
Median 19, 90%: 7–44
Majority in 1%
Most frequent: 15 (4.9%)
Liberal
Median 25, 90%: 16–31
Most frequent: 26 (10.1%)
Conservative
Median 4, 90%: 0–11
Most frequent: 3 (14.9%)
Coalition Avenir Québec
Median 67, 90%: 40–83
Majority in 61%
Most frequent: 68 (4.0%)
Québec solidaire
Median 12, 90%: 6–19
Most frequent: 11 (13.0%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 19 | 7 to 44 | 15 seats, 4.9% of simulations | 1% |
| Liberal | 25 | 16 to 31 | 26 seats, 10.1% of simulations | <1% |
| Conservative | 4 | 0 to 11 | 3 seats, 14.9% of simulations | <1% |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 67 | 40 to 83 | 68 seats, 4.0% of simulations | 61% |
| Québec solidaire | 12 | 6 to 19 | 11 seats, 13.0% of simulations | <1% |
What changed
New poll
- Leger, fieldwork to 30 Oct 2023, 1,026 respondentsCoalition Avenir Québec 30 · Parti Québécois 26 · Liberal 15 · Québec solidaire 15 · Conservative 12
Change since 27 Sep 2023
- Median seats: Parti Québécois +8, Liberal +2, Conservative +1, Coalition Avenir Québec −9, Québec solidaire 0.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Parti Québécois +1, Coalition Avenir Québec −28; no majority +27.
- Projected leader changed in 2 ridings: Jean-Talon (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Duplessis (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Parti Québécois | Liberal | Conservative | Coalition Avenir Québec | Québec solidaire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 3 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| Likely 80–95% | 1 | 5 | 0 | 37 | 4 |
| Leans 60–80% | 4 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 3 |
| Toss-up <60% | 15 | ||||
Quebec
Greater Montreal
Montreal and Laval
Quebec City
Seats changing hands
Won in 2022Projected
PQParti Québécois3
PLQLiberal21
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92
QSQuébec solidaire11
PQParti Québécois8
PLQLiberal23
PCQConservative2
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec69
QSQuébec solidaire10
Toss-upToss-up15
| Party | 2022 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQParti Québécois | 3 | 8 | 5 | – | – |
| PLQLiberal | 21 | 23 | 2 | – | – |
| PCQConservative | 0 | 2 | 2 | – | – |
| CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | 92 | 69 | – | 9 | 14 |
| QSQuébec solidaire | 11 | 10 | – | – | 1 |
| Toss-up | 15 | ||||
The path to a majority
Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Daniel-Johnson, 9% · chance of a majority 1%
Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Chauveau, 65% · chance of a majority 61%
All 127 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 37 (24–51) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec37.1 (24–51)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–33)Liberal15.0 (5–26)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24)Conservative11.2 (3–21) |
| Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 62% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec36.1 (23–50)Parti Québécois31.9 (19–45)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27) |
| AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 17 (7–29) | Liberal 42.2% | PLQLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal42.0 (28–56)Parti Québécois17.3 (7–29)Québec solidaire16.8 (7–28)Conservative10.5 (2–20) |
| Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%PLQ 31 (18–45) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Liberal31.0 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec26.3 (14–39)Parti Québécois19.3 (8–31)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–25) |
| ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 35 (22–49) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 77% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.2 (22–49)Parti Québécois25.3 (13–38)Conservative13.6 (5–24)Liberal11.4 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20) |
| Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 42 (29–56) · PCQ 24 (13–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.0 (29–56)Conservative24.2 (13–36)Parti Québécois18.4 (8–30) |
| Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 43 (29–56) · CAQ 35 (21–48) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 73% | Leans | Conservative42.7 (29–56)Coalition Avenir Québec34.7 (21–48)Parti Québécois12.9 (4–24) |
| Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 44 (30–57) · CAQ 36 (22–50) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 72% | Leans | Conservative43.8 (30–57)Coalition Avenir Québec36.0 (22–50)Parti Québécois10.3 (2–21) |
| BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.6 (29–57)Parti Québécois26.5 (15–39)Québec solidaire12.8 (4–23) |
| BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PCQ 35 (22–48) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec36.4 (23–50)Conservative34.7 (22–48)Parti Québécois16.7 (7–29) |
| BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.3 (25–52)Parti Québécois29.1 (17–42)Québec solidaire14.7 (5–25)Conservative11.2 (3–21) |
| BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 72% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.8 (26–53)Parti Québécois31.8 (19–45)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–24)Conservative10.1 (2–20) |
| BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 34 (22–48) · PQ 32 (18–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec34.4 (22–48)Parti Québécois31.5 (18–44)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27) |
| BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 39 (25–53) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.8 (25–53)Parti Québécois25.1 (13–38)Québec solidaire13.9 (5–25)Liberal11.2 (3–21) |
| BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 43 (29–57) · CAQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 77% | Leans | Parti Québécois42.8 (29–57)Coalition Avenir Québec32.8 (20–46)Québec solidaire10.1 (2–20) |
| BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 31 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.6 (26–53)Parti Québécois30.5 (18–43)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26) |
| Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 17 (6–29) | Liberal 40.1% | PLQLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal40.8 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec17.0 (6–29)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27)Québec solidaire15.3 (6–26) |
| Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 36 (23–49) · PQ 21 (10–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 86% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec35.9 (23–49)Parti Québécois20.5 (10–32)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27)Liberal13.1 (4–23)Conservative10.1 (2–19) |
| Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 54 (39–67) · CAQ 21 (10–33) | Parti Québécois 41.6% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | 98% | Solid | Parti Québécois53.6 (39–67)Coalition Avenir Québec20.8 (10–33)Liberal15.0 (5–26) |
| ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 38 (24–51) · PQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.7 (24–51)Parti Québécois28.2 (16–41)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–27) |
| ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec45.6 (32–60)Parti Québécois21.0 (10–33)Conservative17.1 (7–28) |
| ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 42 (29–56) · PQ 18 (7–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec42.3 (29–56)Parti Québécois17.8 (7–30)Liberal13.9 (4–24)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–24) |
| CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%CAQ 35 (20–50) · PQ 24 (11–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 74% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.9 (20–50)Parti Québécois23.5 (11–37)Conservative19.5 (8–32)Québec solidaire12.9 (3–25) |
| Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%CAQ 38 (24–51) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 80% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.6 (24–51)Parti Québécois26.2 (14–39)Conservative17.3 (7–28)Québec solidaire12.3 (3–23) |
| ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%CAQ 38 (23–53) · PCQ 32 (18–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 65% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.5 (23–53)Conservative31.6 (18–46)Parti Québécois15.2 (4–28) |
| ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 24 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec51.0 (37–65)Parti Québécois23.9 (13–37)Québec solidaire12.2 (3–23) |
| ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 38 (24–51) · PCQ 20 (9–31) | Liberal 37.1% | PLQLiberalLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal37.8 (24–51)Conservative19.6 (9–31)Coalition Avenir Québec17.9 (7–30)Parti Québécois13.7 (4–25) |
| Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 38 (23–53) · PCQ 27 (13–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 75% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.5 (23–53)Conservative26.5 (13–40)Parti Québécois19.6 (7–33) |
| ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%CAQ 30 (17–43) · PLQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.6 (17–43)Liberal25.4 (13–38)Parti Québécois20.2 (9–32)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23) |
| Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 38 (24–52) · PCQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 83% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.0 (24–52)Conservative22.9 (12–35)Parti Québécois22.1 (11–34) |
| D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 51 (36–65) · PCQ 21 (10–32) | Liberal 51.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal51.1 (36–65)Conservative20.6 (10–32) |
| Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 89% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.8 (28–56)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25)Conservative12.7 (4–23) |
| Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec36.4 (23–50)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)Québec solidaire13.9 (5–25)Liberal10.3 (2–20) |
| Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.1 (27–55)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Conservative16.6 (7–28)Québec solidaire10.6 (2–21) |
| DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 91% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec46.2 (32–60)Parti Québécois28.1 (15–41)Québec solidaire10.5 (2–20)Conservative10.3 (2–20) |
| DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%PQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 34 (21–47) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois36.5 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec34.0 (21–47)Conservative14.4 (5–25) |
| FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 32 (18–45) · CAQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Liberal31.5 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec23.0 (12–35)Parti Québécois17.4 (7–29)Conservative14.4 (5–25)Québec solidaire11.0 (3–21) |
| GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 51 (36–64) · CAQ 29 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 92% | Likely | Parti Québécois50.7 (36–64)Coalition Avenir Québec29.4 (17–43) |
| GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 37 (24–51) · PLQ 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec37.2 (24–51)Liberal20.1 (9–32)Parti Québécois17.7 (7–30)Québec solidaire12.1 (3–23)Conservative10.3 (2–20) |
| GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 57 (43–70) · PQ 22 (10–34) | Québec solidaire 59.4% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 98% | Solid | Québec solidaire57.2 (43–70)Parti Québécois21.8 (10–34) |
| GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 48 (33–61) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 96% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec47.5 (33–61)Parti Québécois20.8 (10–33)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–25) |
| GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%CAQ 37 (24–50) · PQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 83% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec37.3 (24–50)Parti Québécois25.0 (13–37)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27)Liberal11.2 (2–21) |
| Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 49 (34–62) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Québec solidaire 50.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 95% | Likely | Québec solidaire49.0 (34–62)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec11.1 (2–22) |
| HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%CAQ 26 (14–40) · PLQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 41% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec26.3 (14–40)Liberal26.1 (14–38)Québec solidaire20.3 (9–32)Parti Québécois17.7 (7–29) |
| HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 37 (24–51) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec37.0 (24–51)Parti Québécois21.2 (10–33)Liberal14.1 (4–25)Conservative12.6 (4–23)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–21) |
| IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 42 (29–56) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 90% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.3 (29–56)Parti Québécois25.1 (13–38)Québec solidaire13.8 (4–24)Conservative10.5 (2–20) |
| Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 63 (48–75) · PCQ 10 (3–20) | Liberal 62.6% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal62.7 (48–75)Conservative10.4 (3–20) |
| Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 38 (23–52) · CAQ 23 (10–37) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 81% | Likely | Québec solidaire37.5 (23–52)Coalition Avenir Québec22.5 (10–37)Parti Québécois19.2 (7–32)Conservative13.2 (3–25) |
| Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%PQ 28 (15–43) · CAQ 23 (10–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois28.4 (15–43)Coalition Avenir Québec23.1 (10–38)Québec solidaire23.1 (11–36)Liberal13.2 (4–24) |
| Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 55 (40–68) · PCQ 11 (3–20) | Liberal 53.9% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal54.8 (40–68)Conservative10.9 (3–20)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20)Parti Québécois10.0 (2–20) |
| JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 44 (29–57) · CAQ 34 (20–47) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 77% | Leans | Parti Québécois43.6 (29–57)Coalition Avenir Québec33.5 (20–47)Québec solidaire10.6 (3–21) |
| JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 48 (34–61) · PQ 30 (18–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 89% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec47.5 (34–61)Parti Québécois30.4 (18–44) |
| L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 93% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec45.5 (32–59)Parti Québécois25.4 (13–38)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25) |
| La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 35 (20–50) · PCQ 28 (15–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 66% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.1 (20–50)Conservative28.1 (15–42)Parti Québécois18.3 (7–32) |
| La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 23 (11–35) | Liberal 38.5% | PLQLiberalLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal39.3 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec22.7 (11–35)Parti Québécois15.0 (5–26) |
| La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 20 (9–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 94% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec42.5 (29–56)Parti Québécois20.3 (9–32)Liberal14.4 (5–25)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–23) |
| LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 52 (38–66) · CAQ 13 (3–24) | Liberal 51.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal52.4 (38–66)Coalition Avenir Québec12.7 (3–24)Conservative12.4 (4–22)Parti Québécois11.2 (3–22) |
| LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 81% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.7 (28–56)Parti Québécois29.9 (17–43)Québec solidaire12.1 (3–22) |
| Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 38 (24–51) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec39.5 (26–53)Parti Québécois37.7 (24–51)Conservative10.4 (2–20) |
| Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 47 (34–61) · PLQ 19 (8–31) | Québec solidaire 48.8% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 96% | Solid | Québec solidaire47.4 (34–61)Liberal19.4 (8–31)Parti Québécois17.6 (7–29) |
| Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 23 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Liberal29.1 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec23.1 (12–36)Parti Québécois21.1 (10–33)Québec solidaire15.9 (6–27) |
| Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 87% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.2 (28–55)Parti Québécois26.1 (14–39)Conservative16.0 (6–27) |
| Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 27 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 84% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.2 (26–53)Parti Québécois26.5 (14–39)Québec solidaire12.8 (4–23)Conservative11.0 (3–21) |
| Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PCQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec34.4 (21–48)Conservative31.8 (19–45)Parti Québécois16.8 (6–28) |
| Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 37 (22–52) · PQ 27 (13–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 74% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec36.6 (22–52)Parti Québécois26.5 (13–41)Conservative13.7 (3–26)Québec solidaire11.8 (2–23) |
| LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 39 (24–54) · PQ 22 (9–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 83% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.5 (24–54)Parti Québécois21.9 (9–36)Conservative20.2 (8–33)Québec solidaire11.5 (2–23) |
| Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 45 (31–59) · CAQ 15 (5–27) | Liberal 44.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal45.4 (31–59)Coalition Avenir Québec15.4 (5–27)Parti Québécois13.8 (4–25)Conservative10.3 (2–20)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20) |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 24 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 89% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.2 (28–55)Parti Québécois24.1 (13–37)Conservative15.0 (6–26)Québec solidaire13.8 (4–24) |
| Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 36 (22–49) · CAQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 79% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.8 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec23.3 (12–35)Québec solidaire21.5 (10–33) |
| MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 47 (32–61) · PQ 15 (5–26) | Liberal 46.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal47.2 (32–61)Parti Québécois15.1 (5–26)Coalition Avenir Québec14.2 (4–26)Québec solidaire11.0 (2–21) |
| MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 92% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.1 (30–57)Parti Québécois23.8 (12–36)Conservative15.4 (6–26) |
| MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.1 (28–55)Parti Québécois29.1 (16–42)Québec solidaire13.1 (4–23) |
| Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 78 (65–88) · CAQ 8 (0–19) | Parti Québécois 67.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | >99% | Solid | Parti Québécois77.7 (65–88)Coalition Avenir Québec8.4 (0–19) |
| Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%QS 34 (21–47) · PQ 24 (12–36) | Québec solidaire 34.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 75% | Leans | Québec solidaire34.0 (21–47)Parti Québécois23.5 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec18.6 (8–30)Liberal17.2 (7–28) |
| MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 52 (37–65) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Québec solidaire 53.9% | QSQuébec solidaireSolid | 97% | Solid | Québec solidaire51.5 (37–65)Parti Québécois22.8 (11–35)Liberal13.6 (5–24) |
| Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 32 (19–46) · CAQ 23 (11–35) | Liberal 31.8% | PLQLiberalLeans | 71% | Leans | Liberal32.0 (19–46)Coalition Avenir Québec22.7 (11–35)Parti Québécois20.7 (10–33)Québec solidaire12.7 (4–23) |
| MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 84% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.6 (26–53)Parti Québécois26.8 (15–39)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–24)Conservative10.5 (3–20) |
| Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 39 (25–53) · QS 20 (9–32) | Liberal 39.4% | PLQLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal39.1 (25–53)Québec solidaire19.6 (9–32)Parti Québécois19.1 (8–31) |
| MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 35 (22–49) · PQ 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 66% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.1 (22–49)Parti Québécois29.1 (16–42)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)Liberal12.3 (3–23) |
| MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 36 (21–51) · PCQ 25 (13–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 71% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.5 (21–51)Conservative25.3 (13–39)Parti Québécois19.8 (8–33)Québec solidaire12.0 (2–24) |
| MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 22 (10–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec36.4 (23–50)Parti Québécois21.6 (10–34)Conservative21.0 (10–33)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24) |
| NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 53 (38–66) · PCQ 14 (5–25) | Liberal 52% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal52.7 (38–66)Conservative14.2 (5–25)Parti Québécois10.0 (2–20) |
| Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 27 (14–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 73% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec36.4 (23–50)Parti Québécois26.8 (14–40)Conservative21.9 (11–34) |
| Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 50 (35–64) · QS 15 (5–26) | Liberal 50.5% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal49.9 (35–64)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)Other13.4 (1–24)Parti Québécois10.9 (2–21) |
| OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec32.9 (20–46)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27)Liberal15.4 (6–26)Conservative10.0 (2–20) |
| PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 19 (8–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid | 95% | Solid | Coalition Avenir Québec43.0 (29–57)Parti Québécois18.9 (8–31)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–25)Conservative12.7 (4–23) |
| Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Liberal29.0 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec22.0 (11–34)Parti Québécois20.6 (10–33)Québec solidaire17.4 (7–29) |
| Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PQ 31 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 63% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.9 (22–48)Parti Québécois30.6 (18–43)Québec solidaire15.0 (5–26)Liberal10.4 (2–20) |
| PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 17 (6–29) | Liberal 43.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal44.3 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec16.9 (6–29)Parti Québécois13.3 (4–25)Conservative10.1 (2–20)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20) |
| PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 38 (24–52) · PCQ 30 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 71% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec37.8 (24–52)Conservative30.3 (18–43)Parti Québécois18.2 (8–30) |
| PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 36 (22–49) · PQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 65% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.5 (22–49)Parti Québécois30.4 (17–43)Québec solidaire14.8 (5–26)Conservative10.8 (2–21) |
| René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec46.9 (33–60)Parti Québécois32.5 (20–46) |
| RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%CAQ 42 (28–55) · PQ 28 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 85% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.5 (28–55)Parti Québécois27.8 (15–40)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23)Liberal10.0 (2–20) |
| RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 80% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.3 (30–57)Parti Québécois31.8 (19–45)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20) |
| RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 36 (23–50) · QS 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 81% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec36.4 (23–50)Québec solidaire21.7 (11–34)Parti Québécois21.4 (10–34)Conservative12.9 (4–23) |
| RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 30 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 76% | Leans | Parti Québécois40.5 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec30.2 (18–43)Québec solidaire20.2 (9–32) |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 84% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec41.0 (28–55)Parti Québécois27.8 (16–41)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)Conservative10.5 (3–20) |
| Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 58 (43–71) · PCQ 15 (6–26) | Liberal 57.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal58.1 (43–71)Conservative15.0 (6–26) |
| RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 32 (19–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 83% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec44.9 (31–59)Parti Québécois32.0 (19–45)Conservative10.6 (2–20) |
| RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 36 (23–49) · PQ 31 (18–44) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 64% | Leans | Québec solidaire35.9 (23–49)Parti Québécois31.3 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec14.6 (5–26)Liberal11.4 (3–22) |
| RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 81% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec39.7 (26–53)Parti Québécois28.4 (16–41)Conservative14.2 (5–25)Québec solidaire12.9 (4–23) |
| Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 35 (22–49) · QS 31 (19–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 60% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec35.3 (22–49)Québec solidaire31.3 (19–44)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–32) |
| Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 33 (20–46) · QS 29 (16–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 62% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec32.9 (20–46)Québec solidaire28.7 (16–42)Parti Québécois16.6 (7–28)Conservative10.5 (2–20) |
| Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 36 (22–50) · QS 27 (15–40) | Liberal 36.2% | PLQLiberalLeans | 75% | Leans | Liberal36.3 (22–50)Québec solidaire27.2 (15–40)Parti Québécois15.3 (5–27)Coalition Avenir Québec10.4 (2–21) |
| Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec43.5 (30–57)Parti Québécois27.0 (15–40)Québec solidaire13.7 (4–24) |
| Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 30 (17–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec39.4 (26–53)Parti Québécois29.9 (17–43)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25) |
| Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.7 (25–52)Parti Québécois29.4 (17–42)Québec solidaire15.5 (6–26) |
| Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 50 (35–64) · PCQ 13 (4–23) | Liberal 50% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal50.2 (35–64)Conservative13.0 (4–23)Parti Québécois12.3 (3–23) |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 46 (32–59) · PQ 23 (11–36) | Québec solidaire 47.6% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 94% | Likely | Québec solidaire46.0 (32–59)Parti Québécois23.3 (11–36)Liberal15.5 (6–26) |
| Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PLQ 24 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.0 (17–42)Liberal24.4 (13–37)Parti Québécois20.9 (10–33)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25) |
| SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%CAQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 83% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec38.2 (25–52)Parti Québécois26.3 (14–39)Québec solidaire12.9 (4–23) |
| SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 42 (29–55) · CAQ 26 (14–40) | Québec solidaire 41.9% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 87% | Likely | Québec solidaire42.2 (29–55)Coalition Avenir Québec26.3 (14–40)Parti Québécois16.8 (6–28) |
| SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%CAQ 32 (19–45) · PLQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 69% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec31.7 (19–45)Liberal24.3 (12–37)Parti Québécois17.9 (7–30)Conservative12.1 (4–22)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20) |
| TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%CAQ 31 (18–44) · PQ 31 (18–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 47% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec30.9 (18–44)Parti Québécois30.8 (18–44)Québec solidaire18.3 (8–30)Liberal11.5 (3–22) |
| TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%QS 37 (23–52) · PQ 33 (19–47) | Québec solidaire 39.5% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 62% | Leans | Québec solidaire37.4 (23–52)Parti Québécois32.8 (19–47)Coalition Avenir Québec13.5 (2–27) |
| TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%CAQ 39 (26–52) · PQ 30 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 76% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec38.7 (26–52)Parti Québécois29.6 (17–42)Québec solidaire12.7 (4–23) |
| Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 88% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec40.4 (27–54)Parti Québécois23.9 (12–37)Québec solidaire16.4 (7–27)Conservative11.7 (3–22) |
| UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%CAQ 27 (15–40) · QS 24 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 47% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec27.1 (15–40)Québec solidaire24.2 (13–37)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–33)Liberal18.4 (8–30) |
| VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec34.8 (22–48)Parti Québécois22.5 (11–35)Liberal16.5 (6–28)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26) |
| Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 38 (23–53) · PQ 22 (10–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely | 82% | Likely | Coalition Avenir Québec37.8 (23–53)Parti Québécois22.3 (10–36)Conservative18.9 (7–32)Québec solidaire12.0 (2–24) |
| VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 35 (21–49) · CAQ 24 (13–37) | Liberal 34.2% | PLQLiberalLeans | 79% | Leans | Liberal35.0 (21–49)Coalition Avenir Québec24.2 (13–37)Parti Québécois15.0 (5–26)Conservative10.9 (3–21) |
| VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PQ 32 (19–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 75% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec40.3 (27–54)Parti Québécois31.6 (19–44)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25) |
| VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%QS 31 (18–43) · PLQ 30 (17–43) | Québec solidaire 30.7% | QSQuébec solidaireToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Québec solidaire30.5 (18–43)Liberal29.7 (17–43)Parti Québécois15.5 (6–27)Coalition Avenir Québec15.0 (5–27) |
| ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 38 (25–52) · QS 30 (17–43) | Liberal 38.3% | PLQLiberalLeans | 74% | Leans | Liberal38.3 (25–52)Québec solidaire29.8 (17–43)Parti Québécois14.2 (5–25) |
| Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%PLQ 30 (17–44) · CAQ 25 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 61% | Leans | Liberal30.3 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec25.4 (14–38)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Conservative12.1 (4–22)Québec solidaire11.3 (3–22) |
| Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 50 (36–64) · QS 13 (4–23) | Liberal 50.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal50.2 (36–64)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23)Parti Québécois12.3 (3–23)Other11.2 (1–21) |
| Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 59 (45–72) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Parti Québécois 46.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | 98% | Solid | Parti Québécois59.0 (45–72)Coalition Avenir Québec27.0 (15–40) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 24.0 | 21.2–26.8 | +3.4 |
| Liberal | 14.8 | 14.4–15.2 | +0.6 |
| Conservative | 12.5 | 11.5–13.5 | −0.6 |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 31.5 | 29.5–33.6 | −3.0 |
| Québec solidaire | 15.4 | 14.7–16.1 | −0.7 |
| Others | 1.8 | +0.2 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 30 Oct 2023, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 27 Sep 2023, in points.
Polls included (10)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | LegerNew | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 26 | 15 | 12 | 30 | 15 |
| 27 Sep | Pallas Data | 1,095 | ±3.0 | 19 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 34.5 | 15.4 |
| 25 Sep | Leger | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 34 | 17 |
| 21 Aug | Leger | 1,036 | ±3.0 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 37 | 15 |
| 12 Jun | Leger | 1,042 | ±3.0 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 37 | 16 |
| 3 Jun | Angus Reid | 506 | – | 22 | 13 | 12 | 33 | 17 |
| 1 May | Leger | 1,201 | ±3.0 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 16 |
| 26 Feb | Leger | 1,044 | ±3.0 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 14 |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 19 |
Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2022 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | Forum Research, Research Co. | 52 | 35 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 18% | <1% | 81% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas | 50 | 34 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 17% | 1% | 82% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Leger, Synopsis | 47 | 34 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 14% | 1% | 85% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Pallas | 45 | 33 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 11% | 2% | 87% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Leger | 44 | 33 | 10 | 31 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Pallas, Segma | 44 | 33 | 10 | 32 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Nanos | 42 | 34 | 9 | 34 | 6 | 9% | 3% | 88% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis | 41 | 33 | 9 | 35 | 6 | 8% | 4% | 88% |
72 earlier projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | PLQLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 46 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 13% | <1% | 84% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Leger | 47 | 33 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 47 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Leger | 48 | 33 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 82% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 49 | 34 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 16% | <1% | 82% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Synopsis | 50 | 34 | 8 | 28 | 6 | 18% | <1% | 80% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Leger | 57 | 36 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 31% | 1% | 68% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Leger | 59 | 37 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 36% | 1% | 63% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 39 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 39% | 1% | 60% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Leger | 53 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 21% | 1% | 77% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Pallas Data | 52 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 19% | 1% | 79% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Synopsis | 51 | 41 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 18% | 2% | 79% |
| 18 May 2026 | Leger | 51 | 44 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 17% | 4% | 78% |
| 15 May 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 51 | 46 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 17% | 5% | 77% |
| 10 May 2026 | Synopsis | 59 | 45 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34% | 5% | 61% |
| 9 May 2026 | Pallas Data | 59 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35% | 5% | 59% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 62 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 44% | 7% | 49% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Leger | 61 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 53% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 38% | 9% | 53% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Leger | 65 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 54% | 8% | 38% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Leger | 65 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 54% | 5% | 41% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Leger | 64 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 52% | 2% | 46% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Pallas Data | 65 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 56% | 1% | 43% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Innovative Research | 69 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 29% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Leger | 71 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 76% | 1% | 23% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Pallas Data | 76 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 88% | <1% | 12% |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Leger | 79 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 91% | <1% | 9% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid, Leger | 80 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 73 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 80% | 1% | 19% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Leger | 69 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 28% |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Pallas Data | 75 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 92% | <1% | 7% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 80 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 79 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Leger | 74 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 81% | 1% | 18% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 63 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 48% | 2% | 50% |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Leger | 63 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 48% | 1% | 50% |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 66 | 37 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 58% | 1% | 41% |
| 11 May 2025 | Leger | 68 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 62% | <1% | 37% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Leger | 58 | 31 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 34% | <1% | 64% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Pallas Data | 62 | 32 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 47% | <1% | 53% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Leger | 60 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 40% | <1% | 58% |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Leger | 63 | 25 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Leger | 67 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 61% | <1% | 38% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Pallas Data | 72 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 74% | <1% | 25% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Leger | 70 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 68% | <1% | 32% |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Leger | 61 | 28 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 43% | <1% | 55% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 61 | 28 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 44% | <1% | 54% |
| 3 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 52 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 23% | <1% | 75% |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Leger | 48 | 27 | 6 | 33 | 11 | 16% | <1% | 81% |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 66 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 56% | <1% | 42% |
| 8 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 63 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 48% | <1% | 50% |
| 3 Jun 2024 | Leger | 60 | 27 | 4 | 26 | 9 | 42% | <1% | 56% |
| 13 May 2024 | Leger | 65 | 29 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 54% | <1% | 45% |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Leger, Pallas Data | 66 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 58% | <1% | 41% |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Leger | 64 | 24 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Pallas Data | 58 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 35% | <1% | 63% |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Leger | 59 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 38% | <1% | 61% |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Pallas Data | 62 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 12 | 46% | <1% | 53% |
| 4 Dec 2023 | Leger | 48 | 25 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 17% | <1% | 78% |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Pallas Data | 39 | 26 | 5 | 45 | 12 | 8% | <1% | 82% |
| 30 Oct 2023 (this page) | Leger | 19 | 25 | 4 | 67 | 12 | 1% | <1% | 38% |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Pallas Data | 11 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Leger | 12 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Leger | 11 | 20 | 2 | 81 | 11 | <1% | 0% | 6% |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Leger | 12 | 22 | 2 | 78 | 12 | <1% | 0% | 10% |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Angus Reid | 13 | 23 | 3 | 75 | 13 | <1% | <1% | 15% |
| 1 May 2023 | Leger | 11 | 23 | 1 | 79 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Leger | 6 | 21 | 1 | 86 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 6 | 22 | 1 | 87 | 11 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 7 | 22 | 2 | 80 | 15 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
How the projection works
The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.
The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.