Quebec seat projection, 11 May 2025
As of 11 May 2025, from 34 polls · election day 5 October 2026
These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 11 May 2025.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the PQ win a median of 68 seats (90% range 39–87) and a majority in 62%; the Liberals 32 seats (90% range 23–40); the CAQ 13 seats (90% range 2–39) and a majority in 1%; the Conservatives 7 seats (90% range 2–14); Québec solidaire 6 seats (90% range 1–11). No party wins a majority in 37%.
Parti Québécois majority
62%
Most seats in 94% of simulations
No majority
37%
20 ridings with no party above 60%
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
68 seats (39–87) · majority 62%
68 seats (39–87) · majority 62%
Liberal
32 seats (23–40)
32 seats (23–40)
Conservative
7 seats (2–14)
7 seats (2–14)
Coalition Avenir Québec
13 seats (2–39) · majority 1%
13 seats (2–39) · majority 1%
Québec solidaire
6 seats (1–11)
6 seats (1–11)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 2%.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois
Median 68, 90%: 39–87
Majority in 62%
Most frequent: 70 (3.5%)
Liberal
Median 32, 90%: 23–40
Most frequent: 31 (10.0%)
Conservative
Median 7, 90%: 2–14
Most frequent: 6 (12.8%)
Coalition Avenir Québec
Median 13, 90%: 2–39
Majority in 1%
Most frequent: 7 (4.2%)
Québec solidaire
Median 6, 90%: 1–11
Most frequent: 6 (16.0%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 68 | 39 to 87 | 70 seats, 3.5% of simulations | 62% |
| Liberal | 32 | 23 to 40 | 31 seats, 10.0% of simulations | <1% |
| Conservative | 7 | 2 to 14 | 6 seats, 12.8% of simulations | <1% |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 13 | 2 to 39 | 7 seats, 4.2% of simulations | 1% |
| Québec solidaire | 6 | 1 to 11 | 6 seats, 16.0% of simulations | 0% |
What changed
New poll
- Leger, fieldwork to 11 May 2025, 1,051 respondentsParti Québécois 33 · Liberal 21 · Coalition Avenir Québec 20 · Conservative 13 · Québec solidaire 10
Change since 10 Mar 2025
- Median seats: Parti Québécois +10, Liberal +1, Conservative 0, Coalition Avenir Québec −9, Québec solidaire −1.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Parti Québécois +28, Coalition Avenir Québec −1; no majority −27.
- Projected leader changed in 5 ridings: La Prairie (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); L'Assomption (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Maskinongé (Coalition Avenir Québec to Parti Québécois); Montmorency (Conservative to Parti Québécois); Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (Conservative to Parti Québécois).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Parti Québécois | Liberal | Conservative | Coalition Avenir Québec | Québec solidaire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 10 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Likely 80–95% | 25 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Leans 60–80% | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Toss-up <60% | 20 | ||||
Quebec
Greater Montreal
Montreal and Laval
Quebec City
Seats changing hands
Won in 2022Projected
PQParti Québécois3
PLQLiberal21
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92
QSQuébec solidaire11
PQParti Québécois65
PLQLiberal31
PCQConservative5
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec1
QSQuébec solidaire5
Toss-upToss-up20
| Party | 2022 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQParti Québécois | 3 | 65 | 62 | – | – |
| PLQLiberal | 21 | 31 | 10 | – | – |
| PCQConservative | 0 | 5 | 5 | – | – |
| CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | 92 | 1 | – | 73 | 18 |
| QSQuébec solidaire | 11 | 5 | – | 4 | 2 |
| Toss-up | 20 | ||||
The path to a majority
Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Brome-Missisquoi, 60% · chance of a majority 62%
Liberal64th-best riding: La Peltrie, 1% · chance of a majority <1%
Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Verchères, 11% · chance of a majority 1%
All 127 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%PQ 30 (18–44) · CAQ 24 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois30.3 (18–44)Coalition Avenir Québec24.3 (13–37)Liberal22.8 (11–35)Conservative11.9 (3–22) |
| Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%PQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 92% | Likely | Parti Québécois44.0 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec23.8 (12–36)Québec solidaire10.8 (3–21)Liberal10.1 (1–21)Conservative10.1 (2–20) |
| AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 22 (11–35) | Liberal 42.2% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal51.1 (37–65)Parti Québécois22.3 (11–35)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–19) |
| Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%PLQ 41 (27–55) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 86% | Likely | Liberal40.9 (27–55)Parti Québécois26.2 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec14.5 (5–25) |
| ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 34 (21–48) · CAQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 80% | Leans | Parti Québécois34.3 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec22.2 (11–34)Liberal17.6 (7–29)Conservative13.9 (5–25) |
| Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 42% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.3 (17–42)Parti Québécois27.8 (16–41)Conservative26.1 (14–38) |
| Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 45 (31–59) · CAQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLikely | 93% | Likely | Conservative45.3 (31–59)Coalition Avenir Québec22.7 (11–35)Parti Québécois20.4 (9–33) |
| Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 47 (33–60) · CAQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLikely | 93% | Likely | Conservative46.7 (33–60)Coalition Avenir Québec23.7 (12–36)Parti Québécois17.1 (7–29) |
| BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%PQ 37 (24–51) · CAQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 73% | Leans | Parti Québécois37.3 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec29.3 (17–42)Liberal12.1 (3–23) |
| BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%PCQ 37 (23–50) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 75% | Leans | Conservative36.9 (23–50)Parti Québécois25.2 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec24.1 (13–36) |
| BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 41 (27–55) · CAQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 86% | Likely | Parti Québécois40.8 (27–55)Coalition Avenir Québec25.8 (14–38)Conservative12.0 (3–22)Liberal10.8 (2–21) |
| BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%PQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 89% | Likely | Parti Québécois44.0 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec27.0 (15–39)Conservative10.9 (3–21) |
| BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 43 (28–56) · CAQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 93% | Likely | Parti Québécois42.5 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec22.0 (11–34)Liberal10.8 (2–21)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20) |
| BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 74% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.0 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec25.9 (14–39)Liberal17.9 (7–30) |
| BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 55 (40–69) · CAQ 20 (10–32) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 98% | Solid | Parti Québécois54.8 (40–69)Coalition Avenir Québec20.2 (10–32)Liberal13.4 (4–24) |
| BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%PQ 42 (28–56) · CAQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 87% | Likely | Parti Québécois42.0 (28–56)Coalition Avenir Québec26.7 (15–39)Liberal10.3 (2–21) |
| Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 51 (37–64) · PQ 21 (10–34) | Liberal 40.1% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal50.7 (37–64)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–34) |
| Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%PQ 29 (16–42) · CAQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 60% | Leans | Parti Québécois29.0 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec23.1 (12–35)Liberal20.2 (9–32)Conservative10.6 (2–20)Québec solidaire10.5 (2–20) |
| Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 60 (46–73) · PLQ 19 (8–31) | Parti Québécois 41.6% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | 99% | Solid | Parti Québécois60.2 (46–73)Liberal19.1 (8–31) |
| ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%PQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 86% | Likely | Parti Québécois39.0 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec25.0 (13–37)Liberal13.7 (4–24)Québec solidaire10.7 (3–20) |
| ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 32 (20–46) · PQ 31 (18–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec32.3 (20–46)Parti Québécois31.0 (18–44)Conservative18.4 (8–30)Liberal10.5 (2–21) |
| ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 29 (17–42) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.0 (17–42)Parti Québécois26.3 (14–39)Liberal21.7 (10–34)Conservative10.7 (3–21) |
| CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%PQ 33 (19–48) · CAQ 23 (10–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Parti Québécois33.3 (19–48)Coalition Avenir Québec22.6 (10–36)Conservative20.5 (8–34)Liberal11.2 (2–23) |
| Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%PQ 37 (23–51) · CAQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 80% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.9 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec25.1 (13–37)Conservative18.3 (8–30) |
| ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%PCQ 34 (20–48) · CAQ 25 (12–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 64% | Leans | Conservative33.8 (20–48)Coalition Avenir Québec25.3 (12–39)Parti Québécois23.4 (10–37) |
| ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 38 (24–51) · PQ 36 (22–50) | Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec37.8 (24–51)Parti Québécois35.5 (22–50) |
| ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 19 (8–31) | Liberal 37.1% | PLQLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal47.3 (33–61)Parti Québécois18.8 (8–31)Conservative18.5 (8–30) |
| Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%PQ 29 (15–44) · PCQ 28 (15–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 40% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois28.9 (15–44)Conservative28.2 (15–42)Coalition Avenir Québec25.1 (13–39)Liberal10.0 (1–21) |
| ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%PLQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 68% | Leans | Liberal34.4 (21–48)Parti Québécois27.5 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec17.2 (7–29) |
| Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%PQ 32 (19–46) · CAQ 26 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois31.9 (19–46)Coalition Avenir Québec25.5 (13–38)Conservative24.4 (13–37)Liberal12.0 (3–22) |
| D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 55 (41–69) · PCQ 17 (7–28) | Liberal 51.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal55.4 (41–69)Conservative17.1 (7–28)Other11.7 (2–22)Parti Québécois10.4 (2–21) |
| Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 36 (22–50) · CAQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.1 (22–50)Coalition Avenir Québec29.2 (17–42)Conservative13.8 (4–24)Liberal10.7 (2–21) |
| Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%PQ 37 (24–51) · CAQ 24 (12–36) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 84% | Likely | Parti Québécois37.3 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec23.6 (12–36)Liberal16.6 (6–28) |
| Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.4 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec28.1 (16–41)Conservative17.7 (8–29) |
| DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%PQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Parti Québécois39.9 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec32.7 (20–46)Conservative11.3 (3–21) |
| DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%PQ 48 (34–62) · CAQ 21 (11–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 97% | Solid | Parti Québécois47.9 (34–62)Coalition Avenir Québec21.4 (11–33)Conservative14.7 (5–25) |
| FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 41 (27–55) · PQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal40.9 (27–55)Parti Québécois23.6 (12–37)Conservative14.0 (5–24)Coalition Avenir Québec11.7 (3–22) |
| GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 63 (48–76) · CAQ 17 (7–29) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 99% | Solid | Parti Québécois62.5 (48–76)Coalition Avenir Québec17.3 (7–29)Liberal10.6 (2–21) |
| GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%PLQ 29 (16–42) · PQ 25 (13–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Liberal29.1 (16–42)Parti Québécois25.4 (13–39)Coalition Avenir Québec24.0 (12–36)Conservative10.8 (3–21) |
| GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 45 (31–58) · PQ 31 (18–44) | Québec solidaire 59.4% | QSQuébec solidaireLikely | 85% | Likely | Québec solidaire45.1 (31–58)Parti Québécois30.8 (18–44)Liberal14.0 (5–25) |
| GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 35 (21–48) · PQ 31 (18–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans | 60% | Leans | Coalition Avenir Québec34.5 (21–48)Parti Québécois31.1 (18–45)Conservative10.7 (2–21)Liberal10.5 (2–21) |
| GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%PQ 35 (22–48) · CAQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 77% | Leans | Parti Québécois34.9 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec24.6 (13–37)Liberal17.9 (7–30)Québec solidaire10.7 (3–20) |
| Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 39 (25–52) · PQ 35 (22–49) | Québec solidaire 50.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 61% | Leans | Québec solidaire38.9 (25–52)Parti Québécois35.2 (22–49)Liberal13.2 (4–25) |
| HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%PLQ 36 (22–49) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 79% | Leans | Liberal35.7 (22–49)Parti Québécois24.8 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec14.8 (5–26)Québec solidaire13.6 (5–24) |
| HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%PQ 30 (17–43) · CAQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois29.7 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec23.9 (12–37)Liberal21.4 (10–34)Conservative13.1 (4–23) |
| IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 36 (22–50) · CAQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Parti Québécois35.9 (22–50)Coalition Avenir Québec29.3 (17–42)Conservative11.4 (3–22)Liberal11.0 (2–21) |
| Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 66 (53–79) · PQ 11 (2–21) | Liberal 62.6% | PLQLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal66.4 (53–79)Parti Québécois11.0 (2–21)Other10.4 (2–20) |
| Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 30 (17–43) · PQ 29 (15–44) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | QSQuébec solidaireToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Québec solidaire29.9 (17–43)Parti Québécois28.9 (15–44)Conservative14.5 (4–27)Coalition Avenir Québec12.8 (2–26) |
| Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%PQ 38 (23–53) · PLQ 20 (8–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 87% | Likely | Parti Québécois38.0 (23–53)Liberal19.8 (8–33)Québec solidaire16.1 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec12.5 (2–25) |
| Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 64 (50–76) · PQ 14 (4–25) | Liberal 53.9% | PLQLiberalSolid | >99% | Solid | Liberal63.7 (50–76)Parti Québécois13.8 (4–25) |
| JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 56 (42–70) · CAQ 21 (10–33) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 98% | Solid | Parti Québécois56.3 (42–70)Coalition Avenir Québec21.0 (10–33) |
| JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%PQ 43 (28–57) · CAQ 34 (21–47) | Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 74% | Leans | Parti Québécois42.6 (28–57)Coalition Avenir Québec33.8 (21–47) |
| L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%PQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 33 (20–45) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 63% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.7 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec32.5 (20–45)Liberal10.5 (2–21) |
| La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 30 (16–44) · PQ 27 (13–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6% | PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up | 47% | Toss-up | Conservative29.6 (16–44)Parti Québécois26.9 (13–42)Coalition Avenir Québec22.8 (10–37)Liberal11.1 (2–23) |
| La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 20 (9–33) | Liberal 38.5% | PLQLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal49.2 (35–63)Parti Québécois20.3 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec11.2 (3–21) |
| La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%PQ 29 (17–42) · CAQ 29 (17–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 45% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois29.3 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec28.9 (17–42)Liberal22.2 (11–34) |
| LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 62 (48–75) · PQ 15 (6–27) | Liberal 51.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal62.1 (48–75)Parti Québécois15.3 (6–27)Conservative11.4 (3–21) |
| LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%PQ 41 (27–55) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 83% | Likely | Parti Québécois41.3 (27–55)Coalition Avenir Québec28.4 (16–41) |
| Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%PQ 50 (36–63) · CAQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 95% | Solid | Parti Québécois49.8 (36–63)Coalition Avenir Québec26.1 (14–38)Conservative10.8 (2–20) |
| Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 35 (22–48) · PLQ 27 (15–40) | Québec solidaire 48.8% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 67% | Leans | Québec solidaire35.2 (22–48)Liberal27.1 (15–40)Parti Québécois24.4 (13–37) |
| Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 78% | Leans | Liberal38.4 (25–52)Parti Québécois28.1 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec11.9 (3–22) |
| Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 37 (23–51) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 74% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.7 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec28.1 (16–41)Conservative17.0 (7–28)Liberal10.0 (1–20) |
| Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%PQ 37 (23–50) · CAQ 26 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 79% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.9 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec26.2 (15–39)Liberal13.9 (4–25)Conservative11.6 (3–22) |
| Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%PCQ 34 (21–47) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7% | PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans | 68% | Leans | Conservative33.7 (21–47)Parti Québécois25.1 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec22.4 (11–35)Liberal11.6 (3–22) |
| Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%PQ 37 (22–52) · CAQ 24 (11–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 79% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.5 (22–52)Coalition Avenir Québec23.8 (11–38)Liberal14.4 (4–26)Conservative14.4 (4–27) |
| LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%PQ 32 (17–47) · CAQ 26 (13–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois31.7 (17–47)Coalition Avenir Québec25.9 (13–40)Conservative21.5 (9–35)Liberal10.2 (1–22) |
| Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 55 (40–68) · PQ 18 (7–30) | Liberal 44.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal54.7 (40–68)Parti Québécois18.3 (7–30) |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%PQ 35 (22–49) · CAQ 29 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 68% | Leans | Parti Québécois34.9 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec28.5 (16–41)Conservative16.2 (6–27) |
| Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 46 (32–60) · PLQ 15 (6–26) | Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 97% | Solid | Parti Québécois46.2 (32–60)Liberal15.2 (6–26)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–25)Coalition Avenir Québec12.6 (4–23) |
| MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 57 (42–70) · PQ 20 (9–32) | Liberal 46.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal56.5 (42–70)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–32) |
| MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%PQ 34 (21–48) · CAQ 30 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 62% | Leans | Parti Québécois34.1 (21–48)Coalition Avenir Québec29.8 (18–43)Conservative16.5 (7–27)Liberal10.3 (2–20) |
| MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 82% | Likely | Parti Québécois40.6 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec28.0 (16–41)Liberal13.8 (4–24) |
| Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 85 (73–93) · PCQ 5 (0–13) | Parti Québécois 67.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | >99% | Solid | Parti Québécois84.8 (73–93)Conservative5.2 (0–13) |
| Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%PQ 32 (20–46) · QS 25 (14–37) | Québec solidaire 34.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from QSLeans | 60% | Leans | Parti Québécois32.4 (20–46)Québec solidaire25.4 (14–37)Liberal25.0 (13–38) |
| MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 39 (25–52) · PQ 31 (18–44) | Québec solidaire 53.9% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 71% | Leans | Québec solidaire38.7 (25–52)Parti Québécois30.7 (18–44)Liberal20.0 (9–32) |
| Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 41 (27–55) · PQ 27 (15–40) | Liberal 31.8% | PLQLiberalLikely | 85% | Likely | Liberal41.3 (27–55)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec11.4 (3–22) |
| MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 80% | Leans | Parti Québécois37.5 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec26.7 (15–39)Liberal12.6 (4–24)Conservative11.2 (3–21) |
| Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 24 (12–37) | Liberal 39.4% | PLQLiberalLikely | 95% | Likely | Liberal47.4 (33–61)Parti Québécois24.1 (12–37)Québec solidaire12.0 (4–22) |
| MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 87% | Likely | Parti Québécois39.2 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec22.4 (11–34)Liberal18.8 (8–31)Québec solidaire10.2 (2–20) |
| MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%PQ 29 (15–44) · PCQ 27 (14–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 45% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois29.0 (15–44)Conservative26.9 (14–41)Coalition Avenir Québec23.3 (11–37) |
| MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 31 (18–45) · CAQ 24 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 63% | Leans | Parti Québécois31.3 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec24.2 (13–37)Conservative22.4 (11–34)Liberal10.7 (2–21) |
| NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 60 (46–73) · PQ 14 (4–24) | Liberal 52% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal60.1 (46–73)Parti Québécois13.5 (4–24)Conservative12.5 (4–23) |
| Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%PQ 37 (23–51) · CAQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 78% | Leans | Parti Québécois37.3 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec23.8 (12–37)Conservative22.9 (12–35) |
| Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 54 (40–68) · Oth 16 (4–27) | Liberal 50.5% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal54.2 (40–68)Other15.9 (4–27)Parti Québécois13.7 (4–25) |
| OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%PQ 32 (18–45) · PLQ 23 (11–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 68% | Leans | Parti Québécois31.5 (18–45)Liberal23.0 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec20.6 (10–33)Québec solidaire10.6 (2–20)Conservative10.4 (2–20) |
| PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 30 (17–43) · PQ 28 (15–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 53% | CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | Coalition Avenir Québec29.9 (17–43)Parti Québécois28.0 (15–41)Liberal15.0 (5–27)Conservative13.7 (4–24) |
| Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 38 (24–51) · PQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 79% | Leans | Liberal37.9 (24–51)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec11.1 (2–21)Québec solidaire10.9 (3–20) |
| Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 22 (11–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 91% | Likely | Parti Québécois41.0 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec22.3 (11–34)Liberal16.5 (6–28) |
| PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 54 (39–67) · PQ 18 (7–30) | Liberal 43.7% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal53.9 (39–67)Parti Québécois17.9 (7–30) |
| PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%PCQ 32 (20–45) · PQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7% | PCQConservativegain from CAQToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Conservative32.4 (20–45)Parti Québécois27.2 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec25.6 (14–38) |
| PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 41 (27–55) · CAQ 23 (12–35) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 91% | Likely | Parti Québécois41.4 (27–55)Coalition Avenir Québec23.0 (12–35)Conservative11.3 (3–21)Liberal11.0 (2–21) |
| René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%PQ 45 (31–59) · CAQ 33 (20–46) | Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 80% | Likely | Parti Québécois45.0 (31–59)Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (20–46)Conservative10.0 (2–20) |
| RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%PQ 38 (25–52) · CAQ 28 (16–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 78% | Leans | Parti Québécois38.4 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec28.1 (16–40)Liberal16.3 (6–28) |
| RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%PQ 44 (30–57) · CAQ 30 (18–42) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 85% | Likely | Parti Québécois43.6 (30–57)Coalition Avenir Québec29.8 (18–42) |
| RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%PQ 32 (19–45) · CAQ 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 68% | Leans | Parti Québécois31.6 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec24.6 (13–37)Québec solidaire15.9 (6–27)Conservative14.1 (5–24)Liberal11.2 (2–22) |
| RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 53 (39–67) · CAQ 19 (8–30) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQSolid | 98% | Solid | Parti Québécois53.4 (39–67)Coalition Avenir Québec18.7 (8–30)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–24) |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%PQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 80% | Likely | Parti Québécois39.4 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec28.2 (16–41)Conservative11.4 (3–21) |
| Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 63 (48–76) · PCQ 13 (4–23) | Liberal 57.8% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal62.6 (48–76)Conservative12.6 (4–23)Other10.7 (2–20)Parti Québécois10.6 (2–21) |
| RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%PQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 31 (18–44) | Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 82% | Likely | Parti Québécois44.0 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec31.2 (18–44)Conservative11.3 (3–21) |
| RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%PQ 42 (28–55) · QS 27 (15–39) | Québec solidaire 37.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from QSLikely | 86% | Likely | Parti Québécois41.5 (28–55)Québec solidaire26.7 (15–39)Liberal17.5 (7–29) |
| RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 83% | Likely | Parti Québécois40.1 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec27.2 (15–40)Conservative15.3 (6–26) |
| Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%PQ 30 (17–44) · QS 25 (13–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois30.2 (17–44)Québec solidaire24.8 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec24.3 (13–37) |
| Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%PQ 26 (13–39) · QS 22 (10–34) | Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 46% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois25.6 (13–39)Québec solidaire22.1 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec21.6 (10–34)Liberal14.9 (5–26)Conservative11.6 (3–22) |
| Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 21 (10–33) | Liberal 36.2% | PLQLiberalLikely | 95% | Likely | Liberal45.9 (32–60)Parti Québécois20.8 (10–33)Québec solidaire18.2 (8–29) |
| Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%PQ 38 (25–52) · CAQ 31 (18–43) | Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 73% | Leans | Parti Québécois38.4 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec30.5 (18–43) |
| Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%PQ 41 (27–55) · CAQ 27 (15–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 87% | Likely | Parti Québécois41.3 (27–55)Coalition Avenir Québec26.5 (15–39)Liberal11.2 (3–22) |
| Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 87% | Likely | Parti Québécois40.8 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec26.1 (14–38)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20) |
| Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 58 (43–71) · PQ 16 (6–27) | Liberal 50% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal57.6 (43–71)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–27)Conservative11.5 (3–21) |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 35 (22–47) · PQ 32 (19–45) | Québec solidaire 47.6% | QSQuébec solidaireToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Québec solidaire34.8 (22–47)Parti Québécois31.7 (19–45)Liberal22.6 (11–35) |
| Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%PLQ 33 (20–47) · PQ 29 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 64% | Leans | Liberal33.4 (20–47)Parti Québécois28.5 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec16.9 (7–28) |
| SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%PQ 36 (23–50) · CAQ 25 (14–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 80% | Leans | Parti Québécois36.4 (23–50)Coalition Avenir Québec25.2 (14–37)Liberal16.1 (6–28)Conservative10.4 (2–20) |
| SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 35 (21–47) · PQ 26 (14–39) | Québec solidaire 41.9% | QSQuébec solidaireLeans | 73% | Leans | Québec solidaire34.6 (21–47)Parti Québécois26.3 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec16.4 (6–28)Liberal11.8 (3–22) |
| SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%PLQ 33 (20–47) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans | 71% | Leans | Liberal33.3 (20–47)Parti Québécois24.9 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec19.0 (8–30)Conservative12.2 (4–22) |
| TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%PQ 41 (27–55) · CAQ 19 (9–31) | Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 93% | Likely | Parti Québécois41.2 (27–55)Coalition Avenir Québec18.9 (9–31)Liberal17.8 (7–29)Québec solidaire12.3 (4–22) |
| TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%PQ 44 (29–59) · QS 28 (16–41) | Québec solidaire 39.5% | PQParti Québécoisgain from QSLikely | 86% | Likely | Parti Québécois44.1 (29–59)Québec solidaire28.3 (16–41)Liberal10.2 (1–21) |
| TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%PQ 40 (27–54) · CAQ 26 (14–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 86% | Likely | Parti Québécois40.3 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec25.6 (14–38)Liberal15.8 (6–27) |
| Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%PQ 34 (22–48) · CAQ 28 (16–41) | Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 70% | Leans | Parti Québécois34.4 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec27.8 (16–41)Conservative12.6 (4–23)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21)Liberal11.0 (2–21) |
| UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%PQ 30 (18–43) · PLQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Parti Québécois30.2 (18–43)Liberal27.1 (15–40)Québec solidaire17.3 (7–28)Coalition Avenir Québec16.0 (6–27) |
| VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%PQ 31 (18–44) · PLQ 24 (12–37) | Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 63% | Leans | Parti Québécois31.2 (18–44)Liberal24.3 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec22.1 (11–34) |
| Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%PQ 32 (18–47) · CAQ 25 (12–39) | Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans | 63% | Leans | Parti Québécois32.0 (18–47)Coalition Avenir Québec25.3 (12–39)Conservative20.0 (8–33)Liberal11.7 (2–23) |
| VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 20 (9–33) | Liberal 34.2% | PLQLiberalLikely | 95% | Likely | Liberal44.4 (30–58)Parti Québécois20.4 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec12.3 (4–23)Conservative10.5 (3–20) |
| VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%PQ 43 (29–57) · CAQ 27 (15–40) | Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6% | PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely | 89% | Likely | Parti Québécois43.3 (29–57)Coalition Avenir Québec27.2 (15–40)Liberal10.2 (2–20) |
| VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%PLQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 22 (10–34) | Québec solidaire 30.7% | PLQLiberalgain from QSLikely | 86% | Likely | Liberal39.5 (26–53)Parti Québécois21.8 (10–34)Québec solidaire21.5 (10–33) |
| ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 48 (34–62) · QS 20 (10–32) | Liberal 38.3% | PLQLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal48.2 (34–62)Québec solidaire20.2 (10–32)Parti Québécois19.5 (9–31) |
| Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%PLQ 40 (26–54) · PQ 25 (13–38) | Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3% | PLQLiberalgain from CAQLikely | 86% | Likely | Liberal39.9 (26–54)Parti Québécois25.2 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec13.7 (4–24)Conservative12.0 (4–22) |
| Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 56 (41–69) · PQ 15 (5–27) | Liberal 50.4% | PLQLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal55.5 (41–69)Parti Québécois15.3 (5–27)Other13.7 (3–24) |
| Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 70 (56–81) · CAQ 15 (6–26) | Parti Québécois 46.4% | PQParti QuébécoisSolid | >99% | Solid | Parti Québécois69.8 (56–81)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (6–26)Liberal10.2 (2–20) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 33.0 | 32.6–33.3 | +2.2 |
| Liberal | 21.0 | 20.8–21.2 | +0.8 |
| Conservative | 13.0 | 12.8–13.2 | −0.5 |
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 20.1 | 19.6–20.5 | −1.7 |
| Québec solidaire | 10.0 | 9.8–10.3 | −1.0 |
| Others | 3.0 | +0.3 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 11 May 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 10 Mar 2025, in points.
Polls included (34)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May | LegerNew | 1,051 | ±3.0 | 33 | 21 | 13 | 20 | 10 |
| 10 Mar | Leger | 1,007 | ±3.1 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
| 1 Mar | Pallas Data | 1,120 | ±2.9 | 31.6 | 21.6 | 15 | 19.5 | 10.1 |
| 2 Feb | Leger | 1,017 | ±3.1 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 21 | 10 |
| 19 Jan | Leger | 1,003 | ±3.1 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 25 | 12 |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 31 | 16 | 13 | 24 | 13 |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,093 | ±3.0 | 35 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 20.4 | 11.9 |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Leger | 1,010 | ±3.1 | 35 | 17 | 11 | 21 | 13 |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Leger | 1,036 | ±3.0 | 32 | 17 | 12 | 24 | 14 |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,111 | ±2.9 | 33.9 | 17.6 | 14 | 21.6 | 11.7 |
24 earlier polls
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,191 | ±3.0 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 23 | 13 |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Leger | 1,041 | ±3.0 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 24 | 15 |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,445 | ±2.6 | 35 | 16.7 | 12.2 | 21.7 | 13.2 |
| 8 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,339 | ±2.7 | 33.1 | 17.1 | 10.6 | 21.5 | 15.9 |
| 3 Jun 2024 | Leger | 1,015 | ±3.1 | 32 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 14 |
| 13 May 2024 | Leger | 1,031 | ±3.0 | 32 | 17 | 12 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Leger | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 34 | 15 | 10 | 24 | 14 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,256 | ±2.8 | 32.9 | 22.8 | 10.7 | 19.5 | 12.9 |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Leger | 1,033 | ±3.0 | 34 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 18 |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,122 | ±2.9 | 31.4 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 23.1 | 16.5 |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Leger | 1,032 | ±3.0 | 32 | 15 | 11 | 25 | 16 |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Pallas Data | 1,175 | ±2.9 | 31.7 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 21.1 | 17 |
| 4 Dec 2023 | Leger | 1,040 | ±3.0 | 31 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 17 |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Pallas Data | 1,178 | ±2.9 | 30.4 | 15.5 | 11.3 | 24.1 | 16.1 |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 26 | 15 | 12 | 30 | 15 |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Pallas Data | 1,095 | ±3.0 | 19 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 34.5 | 15.4 |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Leger | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 34 | 17 |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Leger | 1,036 | ±3.0 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 37 | 15 |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Leger | 1,042 | ±3.0 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 37 | 16 |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Angus Reid | 506 | – | 22 | 13 | 12 | 33 | 17 |
| 1 May 2023 | Leger | 1,201 | ±3.0 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 16 |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Leger | 1,044 | ±3.0 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 14 |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 1,028 | ±3.1 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 19 |
Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2022 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | Forum Research, Research Co. | 52 | 35 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 18% | <1% | 81% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas | 50 | 34 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 17% | 1% | 82% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Leger, Synopsis | 47 | 34 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 14% | 1% | 85% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Pallas | 45 | 33 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 11% | 2% | 87% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Leger | 44 | 33 | 10 | 31 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Pallas, Segma | 44 | 33 | 10 | 32 | 7 | 10% | 2% | 87% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Nanos | 42 | 34 | 9 | 34 | 6 | 9% | 3% | 88% |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis | 41 | 33 | 9 | 35 | 6 | 8% | 4% | 88% |
72 earlier projections
| Projection | PQParti Québécois | PLQLiberal | PCQConservative | CAQCoalition Avenir Québec | QSQuébec solidaire | PQParti Québécois maj. | PLQLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 46 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 13% | <1% | 84% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Leger | 47 | 33 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Pallas Data | 47 | 33 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 83% |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Leger | 48 | 33 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 15% | <1% | 82% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 49 | 34 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 16% | <1% | 82% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Synopsis | 50 | 34 | 8 | 28 | 6 | 18% | <1% | 80% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Leger | 57 | 36 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 31% | 1% | 68% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Leger | 59 | 37 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 36% | 1% | 63% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 39 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 39% | 1% | 60% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Leger | 53 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 21% | 1% | 77% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Pallas Data | 52 | 39 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 19% | 1% | 79% |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Synopsis | 51 | 41 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 18% | 2% | 79% |
| 18 May 2026 | Leger | 51 | 44 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 17% | 4% | 78% |
| 15 May 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 51 | 46 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 17% | 5% | 77% |
| 10 May 2026 | Synopsis | 59 | 45 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34% | 5% | 61% |
| 9 May 2026 | Pallas Data | 59 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35% | 5% | 59% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 62 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 44% | 7% | 49% |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Leger | 61 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 53% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 60 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 38% | 9% | 53% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Leger | 65 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 54% | 8% | 38% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Leger | 65 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 54% | 5% | 41% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Leger | 64 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 52% | 2% | 46% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Pallas Data | 65 | 40 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 56% | 1% | 43% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Innovative Research | 69 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 29% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Leger | 71 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 76% | 1% | 23% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Pallas Data | 76 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 88% | <1% | 12% |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Leger | 79 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 91% | <1% | 9% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid, Leger | 80 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 73 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 80% | 1% | 19% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Leger | 69 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 70% | 1% | 28% |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Pallas Data | 75 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 92% | <1% | 7% |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Leger | 80 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 80 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 93% | <1% | 6% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 79 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 92% | <1% | 8% |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Leger | 74 | 37 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 81% | 1% | 18% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 63 | 41 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 48% | 2% | 50% |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Leger | 63 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 48% | 1% | 50% |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 66 | 37 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 58% | 1% | 41% |
| 11 May 2025 (this page) | Leger | 68 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 62% | <1% | 37% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Leger | 58 | 31 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 34% | <1% | 64% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Pallas Data | 62 | 32 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 47% | <1% | 53% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Leger | 60 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 40% | <1% | 58% |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Leger | 63 | 25 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Leger | 67 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 61% | <1% | 38% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Pallas Data | 72 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 74% | <1% | 25% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | Leger | 70 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 68% | <1% | 32% |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Leger | 61 | 28 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 43% | <1% | 55% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 61 | 28 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 44% | <1% | 54% |
| 3 Sep 2024 | Pallas Data | 52 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 23% | <1% | 75% |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Leger | 48 | 27 | 6 | 33 | 11 | 16% | <1% | 81% |
| 22 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 66 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 56% | <1% | 42% |
| 8 Jun 2024 | Pallas Data | 63 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 10 | 48% | <1% | 50% |
| 3 Jun 2024 | Leger | 60 | 27 | 4 | 26 | 9 | 42% | <1% | 56% |
| 13 May 2024 | Leger | 65 | 29 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 54% | <1% | 45% |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Leger, Pallas Data | 66 | 29 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 58% | <1% | 41% |
| 18 Mar 2024 | Leger | 64 | 24 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 50% | <1% | 48% |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Pallas Data | 58 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 35% | <1% | 63% |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Leger | 59 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 38% | <1% | 61% |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Pallas Data | 62 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 12 | 46% | <1% | 53% |
| 4 Dec 2023 | Leger | 48 | 25 | 4 | 36 | 12 | 17% | <1% | 78% |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Pallas Data | 39 | 26 | 5 | 45 | 12 | 8% | <1% | 82% |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 19 | 25 | 4 | 67 | 12 | 1% | <1% | 38% |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Pallas Data | 11 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 25 Sep 2023 | Leger | 12 | 23 | 3 | 76 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Leger | 11 | 20 | 2 | 81 | 11 | <1% | 0% | 6% |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Leger | 12 | 22 | 2 | 78 | 12 | <1% | 0% | 10% |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Angus Reid | 13 | 23 | 3 | 75 | 13 | <1% | <1% | 15% |
| 1 May 2023 | Leger | 11 | 23 | 1 | 79 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Leger | 6 | 21 | 1 | 86 | 12 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 10 Dec 2022 | Leger | 6 | 22 | 1 | 87 | 11 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Leger | 7 | 22 | 2 | 80 | 15 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
How the projection works
The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.
The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.