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Stephen Taylor

Quebec seat projection, 21 August 2023

As of 21 August 2023, from 7 polls · election day 5 October 2026

These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 21 August 2023.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the CAQ win a median of 81 seats (90% range 61–94) and a majority in 94%; the Liberals 20 seats (90% range 12–27); the PQ 11 seats (90% range 4–29); Québec solidaire 11 seats (90% range 6–18); the Conservatives 2 seats (90% range 0–7). No party wins a majority in 6%.

  • Coalition Avenir Québec majority

    94%

    Most seats in 99% of simulations

  • No majority

    6%

    12 ridings with no party above 60%

Projected seats by party, median and 90% range, out of 127; 64 seats are a majority.
64 for a majority
Parti Québécois

11 seats (4–29)

Liberal

20 seats (12–27)

Conservative

2 seats (0–7)

Coalition Avenir Québec

81 seats (61–94) · majority 94%

Québec solidaire

11 seats (6–18)

Others

0 seats (0–1)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.

Seat distributions

Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

Median 11, 90%: 4–29

Most frequent: 9 (7.9%)

Liberal

Median 20, 90%: 12–27

Most frequent: 20 (9.4%)

Conservative

Median 2, 90%: 0–7

Most frequent: 1 (24.0%)

Coalition Avenir Québec

Median 81, 90%: 61–94

Majority in 94%

Most frequent: 84 (5.4%)

Québec solidaire

Median 11, 90%: 6–18

Most frequent: 11 (13.9%)

Others

Median 0, 90%: 0–1

Most frequent: 0 (93.2%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
PartyMedian seats90% rangeMost frequentChance of a majority
Parti Québécois114 to 299 seats, 7.9% of simulations<1%
Liberal2012 to 2720 seats, 9.4% of simulations0%
Conservative20 to 71 seats, 24.0% of simulations<1%
Coalition Avenir Québec8161 to 9484 seats, 5.4% of simulations94%
Québec solidaire116 to 1811 seats, 13.9% of simulations<1%
Others00 to 10 seats, 93.2% of simulations0%
The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 64 of 127 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.

What changed

New poll

  • Leger, fieldwork to 21 Aug 2023, 1,036 respondentsCoalition Avenir Québec 37 · Parti Québécois 22 · Québec solidaire 15 · Liberal 12 · Conservative 11

Change since 12 Jun 2023

  • Median seats: Parti Québécois −1, Liberal −2, Conservative 0, Coalition Avenir Québec +3, Québec solidaire −1.
  • Chance of a majority, in points: Coalition Avenir Québec +4; no majority −4.
  • Projected leader changed in 4 ridings: Pierre-Laporte (Liberal to Coalition Avenir Québec); Fabre (Liberal to Coalition Avenir Québec); Mille-Îles (Liberal to Coalition Avenir Québec); Jean-Talon (Parti Québécois to Coalition Avenir Québec).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
Parti QuébécoisLiberalCoalition Avenir QuébecQuébec solidaire
Solid 95%+28215
Likely 80–95%27490
Leans 60–80%14115
Toss-up <60%12

Quebec

Greater Montreal

Montreal and Laval

Quebec City

Seats changing hands

Won in 2022Projected
PQ3
PLQ21
CAQ92
QS11
PQ5
PLQ19
CAQ81
QS10
Toss-up12
Ridings by party: won in 2022, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party2022ProjectedGainsLossesToss-ups
PQ352––
PLQ2119––2
CAQ9281–29
QS1110––1
Toss-up 12 
Each riding from the party that won it at the 2022 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2022 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Jonquière, 4% · chance of a majority <1%

Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Chauveau, 84% · chance of a majority 94%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 64 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 64th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 127 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.

All 127 ridings: 2022 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
Abitibi-Est2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 20 (9–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%CAQSolid95%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec43.4 (30–57)Parti Québécois19.5 (9–31)Québec solidaire13.3 (4–24)Liberal11.9 (3–22)
Abitibi-Ouest2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 30 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%CAQLikely82%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec42.1 (28–56)Parti Québécois29.5 (17–43)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)
Acadie2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 38 (23–51) · QS 17 (7–29)Liberal 42.2%PLQLikely90%LikelyLiberal37.6 (23–51)Québec solidaire17.1 (7–29)Parti Québécois16.4 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec14.4 (4–26)
Anjou-Louis-Riel2022: CAQ 35.5%CAQ 32 (19–46) · PLQ 27 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5%CAQLeans63%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec32.2 (19–46)Liberal26.8 (14–40)Parti Québécois18.0 (7–30)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)
Argenteuil2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PQ 23 (12–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.7 (27–55)Parti Québécois23.1 (12–35)Conservative11.9 (3–22)
Arthabaska-L'Érable2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PCQ 22 (11–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec48.0 (34–62)Conservative21.6 (11–33)Parti Québécois16.4 (7–28)
Beauce-Nord2022: CAQ 43.4%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PCQ 39 (26–52)Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4%CAQToss-up54%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec40.6 (27–55)Conservative39.3 (26–52)Parti Québécois11.4 (3–22)
Beauce-Sud2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PCQ 40 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%CAQToss-up55%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec41.9 (28–56)Conservative40.1 (27–54)
Beauharnois2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PQ 24 (13–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%CAQSolid95%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec48.3 (34–62)Parti Québécois24.0 (13–36)Québec solidaire12.2 (3–22)
Bellechasse2022: CAQ 45.7%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PCQ 32 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7%CAQLeans79%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec42.5 (29–56)Conservative31.8 (19–45)Parti Québécois15.0 (5–26)
Bellefeuille2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%CAQLikely89%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec44.4 (30–58)Parti Québécois26.8 (15–40)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25)
Berthier2022: CAQ 51.2%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 29 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2%CAQLikely88%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec45.3 (31–59)Parti Québécois29.0 (17–42)Québec solidaire12.9 (4–23)
Bertrand2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 40 (27–53) · PQ 29 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%CAQLeans80%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec39.8 (27–53)Parti Québécois28.8 (16–41)Québec solidaire15.1 (6–26)
Blainville2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 23 (12–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4%CAQLikely94%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec44.9 (31–59)Parti Québécois22.9 (12–35)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)
Bonaventure2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 40 (27–54) · CAQ 39 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5%PQgain from CAQToss-up54%Toss-upParti Québécois40.3 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec38.8 (26–53)
Borduas2022: CAQ 50.9%CAQ 45 (32–59) · PQ 28 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec45.2 (32–59)Parti Québécois27.7 (15–40)Québec solidaire14.4 (5–25)
Bourassa-Sauvé2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 36 (22–50) · CAQ 22 (11–35)Liberal 40.1%PLQLikely83%LikelyLiberal36.1 (22–50)Coalition Avenir Québec22.3 (11–35)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–27)Parti Québécois15.0 (5–26)
Brome-Missisquoi2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 41 (28–55) · PQ 18 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%CAQLikely94%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec41.4 (28–55)Parti Québécois18.4 (8–30)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–26)Liberal10.1 (2–19)
Camille-Laurin2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 51 (37–64) · CAQ 26 (14–38)Parti Québécois 41.6%PQSolid96%SolidParti Québécois50.8 (37–64)Coalition Avenir Québec25.6 (14–38)Liberal12.3 (3–22)
Chambly2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 26 (14–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.4 (30–57)Parti Québécois25.7 (14–38)Québec solidaire15.6 (6–26)
Champlain2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 52 (37–65) · PQ 19 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9%CAQSolid98%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec51.6 (37–65)Parti Québécois18.8 (8–31)Conservative15.0 (6–26)
Chapleau2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 48 (35–62) · PQ 16 (6–27)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2%CAQSolid98%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec48.3 (35–62)Parti Québécois15.9 (6–27)Québec solidaire13.0 (4–23)Liberal10.8 (2–20)
Charlesbourg2022: CAQ 45%CAQ 41 (25–56) · PQ 21 (9–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 45%CAQLikely88%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.6 (25–56)Parti Québécois21.3 (9–35)Conservative17.4 (6–30)Québec solidaire12.4 (3–24)
Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré2022: CAQ 48.2%CAQ 44 (29–57) · PQ 24 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2%CAQLikely92%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.5 (29–57)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–36)Conservative15.3 (6–26)Québec solidaire11.8 (3–22)
Chauveau2022: CAQ 46.8%CAQ 43 (28–59) · PCQ 29 (15–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8%CAQLikely84%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.3 (28–59)Conservative28.6 (15–42)Parti Québécois13.5 (3–25)
Chicoutimi2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 57 (43–70) · PQ 21 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3%CAQSolid99%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec56.8 (43–70)Parti Québécois21.3 (11–34)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22)
Chomedey2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 33 (19–46) · CAQ 23 (12–36)Liberal 37.1%PLQLeans75%LeansLiberal33.4 (19–46)Coalition Avenir Québec23.3 (12–36)Conservative18.3 (8–29)Parti Québécois12.7 (3–24)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 44 (29–59) · PCQ 24 (11–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.6 (29–59)Conservative24.0 (11–37)Parti Québécois17.7 (6–31)
Châteauguay2022: CAQ 39.1%CAQ 36 (22–50) · PLQ 21 (10–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1%CAQLikely83%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec35.5 (22–50)Liberal21.4 (10–33)Parti Québécois18.6 (8–30)Québec solidaire12.4 (4–22)
Côte-du-Sud2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PCQ 21 (10–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec44.3 (30–58)Conservative20.8 (10–32)Parti Québécois20.2 (9–32)
D'Arcy-McGee2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 46 (31–60) · PCQ 20 (9–31)Liberal 51.4%PLQSolid96%SolidLiberal46.1 (31–60)Conservative19.5 (9–31)Other14.2 (3–25)
Daniel-Johnson2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec48.2 (34–62)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24)Conservative11.0 (3–21)
Deux-Montagnes2022: CAQ 47.1%CAQ 42 (29–56) · PQ 25 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec42.1 (29–56)Parti Québécois25.0 (13–37)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)
Drummond-Bois-Francs2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQSolid95%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec46.8 (33–60)Parti Québécois22.5 (11–35)Conservative14.6 (5–25)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20)
Dubuc2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 52 (38–65) · PQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec51.9 (38–65)Parti Québécois25.3 (13–38)
Duplessis2022: CAQ 45.1%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 34 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1%CAQLeans67%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec39.6 (26–53)Parti Québécois33.6 (21–47)Conservative12.7 (4–23)
Fabre2022: CAQ 31.8%CAQ 29 (16–42) · PLQ 27 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8%CAQToss-up51%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec28.8 (16–42)Liberal27.3 (14–40)Parti Québécois16.2 (6–28)Conservative13.0 (4–23)Québec solidaire10.9 (2–21)
Gaspé2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 48 (34–62) · CAQ 35 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4%PQgain from CAQLikely82%LikelyParti Québécois48.0 (34–62)Coalition Avenir Québec35.1 (22–49)
Gatineau2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PLQ 17 (6–27)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec43.4 (29–57)Liberal16.5 (6–27)Parti Québécois16.0 (6–28)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)
Gouin2022: QS 59.4%QS 57 (42–69) · PQ 20 (9–32)Québec solidaire 59.4%QSSolid99%SolidQuébec solidaire56.7 (42–69)Parti Québécois20.1 (9–32)
Granby2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 53 (39–67) · PQ 19 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9%CAQSolid98%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec53.3 (39–67)Parti Québécois18.5 (8–30)Québec solidaire13.8 (4–24)
Groulx2022: CAQ 47.8%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.2 (29–56)Parti Québécois22.8 (11–35)Québec solidaire15.6 (6–26)
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve2022: QS 50.8%QS 49 (34–62) · PQ 23 (11–36)Québec solidaire 50.8%QSSolid95%SolidQuébec solidaire48.5 (34–62)Parti Québécois23.1 (11–36)Coalition Avenir Québec15.2 (5–27)
Hull2022: CAQ 35.3%CAQ 32 (19–46) · PLQ 22 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3%CAQLeans70%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec31.9 (19–46)Liberal22.0 (10–34)Québec solidaire20.1 (9–32)Parti Québécois16.2 (6–28)
Huntingdon2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 19 (8–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 47%CAQSolid95%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec42.8 (29–57)Parti Québécois19.2 (8–31)Liberal11.1 (2–21)Conservative10.9 (3–20)Québec solidaire10.8 (2–21)
Iberville2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 48 (34–62) · PQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec48.1 (34–62)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–23)
Jacques-Cartier2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 57 (41–70) · Oth 13 (2–24)Liberal 62.6%PLQSolid99%SolidLiberal56.9 (41–70)Other12.9 (2–24)
Jean-Lesage2022: QS 37.7%QS 37 (23–51) · CAQ 27 (14–43)Québec solidaire 37.7%QSLeans72%LeansQuébec solidaire36.7 (23–51)Coalition Avenir Québec27.4 (14–43)Parti Québécois17.4 (6–30)Conservative11.6 (2–23)
Jean-Talon2022: CAQ 32.5%CAQ 28 (14–43) · PQ 27 (14–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5%CAQToss-up45%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec28.3 (14–43)Parti Québécois26.5 (14–40)Québec solidaire22.8 (11–36)Liberal10.5 (2–21)
Jeanne-Mance-Viger2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 50 (35–64) · CAQ 14 (4–26)Liberal 53.9%PLQSolid98%SolidLiberal49.7 (35–64)Coalition Avenir Québec14.3 (4–26)Québec solidaire10.5 (2–21)Conservative10.0 (2–19)
Joliette2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 41 (27–54) · CAQ 39 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6%PQgain from CAQToss-up55%Toss-upParti Québécois40.6 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec39.1 (25–53)Québec solidaire10.2 (2–20)
Jonquière2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 53 (39–66) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec53.0 (39–66)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)
L'Assomption2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 23 (11–35)Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8%CAQSolid97%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec51.4 (37–65)Parti Québécois22.9 (11–35)Québec solidaire13.8 (5–24)
La Peltrie2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 41 (26–56) · PCQ 26 (13–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%CAQLikely84%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.9 (26–56)Conservative25.5 (13–39)Parti Québécois16.5 (5–29)
La Pinière2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 34 (20–48) · CAQ 29 (16–42)Liberal 38.5%PLQLeans67%LeansLiberal34.4 (20–48)Coalition Avenir Québec28.5 (16–42)Parti Québécois13.8 (4–25)
La Prairie2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 18 (8–30)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7%CAQSolid98%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec48.6 (35–62)Parti Québécois18.3 (8–30)Québec solidaire12.7 (3–23)Liberal11.2 (3–21)
LaFontaine2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 48 (33–62) · CAQ 18 (7–31)Liberal 51.7%PLQSolid96%SolidLiberal47.7 (33–62)Coalition Avenir Québec17.8 (7–31)Conservative11.6 (3–21)Parti Québécois10.5 (2–21)
Labelle2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 48 (34–61) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec47.5 (34–61)Parti Québécois27.2 (15–40)Québec solidaire11.5 (3–22)
Lac-Saint-Jean2022: CAQ 51.5%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 35 (22–48)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5%CAQLeans78%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec45.1 (31–58)Parti Québécois34.6 (22–48)
Laurier-Dorion2022: QS 48.8%QS 47 (33–61) · PQ 16 (6–28)Québec solidaire 48.8%QSSolid97%SolidQuébec solidaire47.3 (33–61)Parti Québécois16.3 (6–28)Liberal16.1 (6–27)
Laval-des-Rapides2022: CAQ 31.9%CAQ 29 (16–42) · PLQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9%CAQToss-up54%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec28.7 (16–42)Liberal25.1 (13–38)Parti Québécois19.7 (9–32)Québec solidaire15.8 (6–27)
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 24 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQLikely95%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec47.1 (33–61)Parti Québécois23.7 (12–36)Conservative14.1 (5–24)
Les Plaines2022: CAQ 50%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 24 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 50%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec45.1 (31–59)Parti Québécois24.2 (12–36)Québec solidaire12.3 (3–22)
Lotbinière-Frontenac2022: CAQ 43.7%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PCQ 29 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7%CAQLikely80%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.5 (27–54)Conservative29.2 (17–42)Parti Québécois15.2 (5–26)
Louis-Hébert2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 42 (27–58) · PQ 24 (12–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%CAQLikely88%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec42.4 (27–58)Parti Québécois24.2 (12–38)Conservative12.0 (2–24)Québec solidaire11.4 (2–23)
Lévis2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 44 (29–60) · PQ 20 (8–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec44.3 (29–60)Parti Québécois19.8 (8–33)Conservative18.0 (7–30)Québec solidaire11.0 (1–22)
Marguerite-Bourgeoys2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 40 (26–54) · CAQ 21 (9–33)Liberal 44.8%PLQLikely92%LikelyLiberal40.3 (26–54)Coalition Avenir Québec20.5 (9–33)Parti Québécois12.8 (3–23)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20)
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 22 (11–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec47.0 (33–61)Parti Québécois21.8 (11–34)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–24)Conservative13.1 (4–23)
Marie-Victorin2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 33 (20–46) · CAQ 28 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1%PQgain from CAQLeans62%LeansParti Québécois33.4 (20–46)Coalition Avenir Québec28.3 (16–41)Québec solidaire21.1 (10–33)
Marquette2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 42 (27–56) · CAQ 19 (8–32)Liberal 46.8%PLQLikely93%LikelyLiberal42.3 (27–56)Coalition Avenir Québec19.3 (8–32)Parti Québécois14.2 (4–25)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21)
Maskinongé2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 21 (10–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%CAQSolid97%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec49.0 (35–63)Parti Québécois21.4 (10–33)Conservative13.5 (5–23)
Masson2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 47 (34–61) · PQ 27 (15–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec47.4 (34–61)Parti Québécois26.8 (15–39)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23)
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 75 (62–86) · CAQ 12 (3–23)Parti Québécois 67.4%PQSolid>99%SolidParti Québécois75.4 (62–86)Coalition Avenir Québec12.1 (3–23)
Maurice-Richard2022: QS 34.8%QS 34 (21–47) · CAQ 24 (12–36)Québec solidaire 34.8%QSLeans72%LeansQuébec solidaire33.7 (21–47)Coalition Avenir Québec23.5 (12–36)Parti Québécois21.9 (11–34)Liberal14.1 (5–24)
Mercier2022: QS 53.9%QS 52 (37–65) · PQ 21 (10–33)Québec solidaire 53.9%QSSolid97%SolidQuébec solidaire51.5 (37–65)Parti Québécois21.3 (10–33)Liberal10.9 (3–21)
Mille-Îles2022: PLQ 31.8%CAQ 28 (16–42) · PLQ 28 (15–41)Liberal 31.8%CAQgain from PLQToss-up46%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec28.3 (16–42)Liberal27.8 (15–41)Parti Québécois19.4 (9–31)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23)
Mirabel2022: CAQ 50.4%CAQ 45 (32–59) · PQ 24 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4%CAQLikely94%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec45.4 (32–59)Parti Québécois24.4 (13–37)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)
Mont-Royal-Outremont2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 35 (21–48) · QS 20 (9–32)Liberal 39.4%PLQLikely83%LikelyLiberal34.5 (21–48)Québec solidaire19.7 (9–32)Parti Québécois18.0 (7–30)Coalition Avenir Québec12.8 (3–24)
Montarville2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 27 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%CAQLikely85%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.8 (27–54)Parti Québécois26.7 (14–39)Québec solidaire15.2 (5–26)
Montmorency2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 41 (26–57) · PCQ 23 (11–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%CAQLikely88%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec41.3 (26–57)Conservative22.9 (11–36)Parti Québécois17.9 (7–31)Québec solidaire11.5 (2–23)
Mégantic2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 42 (28–56) · PQ 20 (9–31)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec42.3 (28–56)Parti Québécois19.6 (9–31)Conservative18.9 (9–30)Québec solidaire13.1 (4–24)
Nelligan2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 47 (32–61) · CAQ 14 (4–26)Liberal 52%PLQSolid97%SolidLiberal47.0 (32–61)Coalition Avenir Québec14.0 (4–26)Conservative13.1 (4–24)Other10.3 (1–20)
Nicolet-Bécancour2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 42 (29–57) · PQ 25 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 47%CAQLikely89%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec42.3 (29–57)Parti Québécois24.6 (13–37)Conservative19.8 (9–31)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 44 (29–58) · Oth 19 (5–31)Liberal 50.5%PLQLikely94%LikelyLiberal43.7 (29–58)Other19.0 (5–31)Québec solidaire14.8 (5–26)
Orford2022: CAQ 42.8%CAQ 39 (25–53) · PQ 21 (9–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec38.7 (25–53)Parti Québécois20.8 (9–33)Québec solidaire15.8 (6–27)Liberal12.3 (4–22)
Papineau2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 17 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec 53%CAQSolid98%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec48.9 (35–63)Parti Québécois16.8 (6–28)Québec solidaire13.3 (4–24)Conservative10.9 (3–20)
Pierre-Laporte2022: CAQ 30.8%CAQ 27 (15–41) · PLQ 25 (12–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8%CAQToss-up50%Toss-upCoalition Avenir Québec27.4 (15–41)Liberal24.7 (12–37)Parti Québécois19.1 (8–31)Québec solidaire17.2 (7–28)
Pointe-aux-Trembles2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 28 (16–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%CAQLikely83%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.6 (27–54)Parti Québécois28.1 (16–40)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)
Pontiac2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 39 (25–53) · CAQ 22 (10–35)Liberal 43.7%PLQLikely89%LikelyLiberal39.2 (25–53)Coalition Avenir Québec22.1 (10–35)Parti Québécois12.2 (3–23)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20)
Portneuf2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PCQ 28 (16–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%CAQLikely89%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.8 (30–58)Conservative27.5 (16–40)Parti Québécois16.3 (6–28)
Prévost2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%CAQLikely84%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec41.1 (27–54)Parti Québécois27.9 (15–41)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25)
René-Lévesque2022: CAQ 58.9%CAQ 53 (38–66) · PQ 29 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9%CAQLikely94%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec52.5 (38–66)Parti Québécois29.4 (17–42)
Repentigny2022: CAQ 52.6%CAQ 47 (34–61) · PQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6%CAQLikely94%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec47.4 (34–61)Parti Québécois25.3 (13–38)Québec solidaire12.1 (3–22)
Richelieu2022: CAQ 54.8%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 29 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8%CAQLikely92%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec49.0 (35–62)Parti Québécois29.0 (17–42)
Richmond2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 42 (28–56) · QS 21 (10–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%CAQLikely92%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec42.2 (28–56)Québec solidaire21.0 (10–33)Parti Québécois19.4 (9–31)Conservative11.2 (3–21)
Rimouski2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 38 (24–51) · CAQ 35 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8%PQgain from CAQToss-up55%Toss-upParti Québécois37.6 (24–51)Coalition Avenir Québec35.4 (22–49)Québec solidaire19.6 (9–31)
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques2022: CAQ 52.1%CAQ 47 (33–61) · PQ 25 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1%CAQLikely94%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec46.8 (33–61)Parti Québécois25.3 (13–38)Québec solidaire13.9 (5–24)
Robert-Baldwin2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 52 (36–66) · PCQ 14 (5–25)Liberal 57.8%PLQSolid98%SolidLiberal52.4 (36–66)Conservative14.0 (5–25)Other13.0 (2–24)
Roberval2022: CAQ 56.2%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 29 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec51.2 (37–65)Parti Québécois29.3 (17–42)
Rosemont2022: QS 37.7%QS 36 (22–49) · PQ 29 (17–42)Québec solidaire 37.7%QSLeans67%LeansQuébec solidaire35.6 (22–49)Parti Québécois29.3 (17–42)Coalition Avenir Québec19.1 (8–31)
Rousseau2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 26 (14–38)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%CAQLikely92%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec45.8 (32–59)Parti Québécois26.1 (14–38)Conservative12.5 (4–22)Québec solidaire12.4 (4–23)
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 41 (27–54) · QS 30 (18–43)Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%CAQLeans78%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec40.8 (27–54)Québec solidaire30.2 (18–43)Parti Québécois17.7 (7–29)
Saint-François2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 38 (25–52) · QS 28 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3%CAQLeans78%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec38.4 (25–52)Québec solidaire27.8 (15–41)Parti Québécois14.8 (5–26)
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 32 (18–45) · QS 27 (15–40)Liberal 36.2%PLQLeans62%LeansLiberal31.7 (18–45)Québec solidaire27.3 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec14.8 (5–26)Parti Québécois14.2 (5–25)
Saint-Hyacinthe2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 24 (13–37)Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4%CAQSolid96%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec49.2 (35–63)Parti Québécois24.4 (13–37)Québec solidaire13.0 (4–23)
Saint-Jean2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec45.1 (31–58)Parti Québécois27.3 (15–40)Québec solidaire13.9 (5–24)
Saint-Jérôme2022: CAQ 49.7%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 27 (15–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec44.3 (31–58)Parti Québécois26.7 (15–39)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)
Saint-Laurent2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 45 (30–59) · PCQ 12 (3–22)Liberal 50%PLQSolid97%SolidLiberal45.0 (30–59)Conservative11.9 (3–22)Coalition Avenir Québec11.7 (2–23)Parti Québécois11.3 (3–22)
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques2022: QS 47.6%QS 46 (32–59) · PQ 22 (10–34)Québec solidaire 47.6%QSSolid95%SolidQuébec solidaire46.0 (32–59)Parti Québécois21.8 (10–34)Liberal12.7 (4–23)Coalition Avenir Québec11.1 (2–22)
Sainte-Rose2022: CAQ 38.5%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PLQ 21 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5%CAQLikely82%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec34.9 (22–48)Liberal20.5 (9–32)Parti Québécois19.3 (9–31)Québec solidaire13.9 (4–25)
Sanguinet2022: CAQ 48.9%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 24 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec44.1 (31–58)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–36)Québec solidaire12.4 (3–23)
Sherbrooke2022: QS 41.9%QS 41 (27–54) · CAQ 31 (19–45)Québec solidaire 41.9%QSLeans76%LeansQuébec solidaire41.1 (27–54)Coalition Avenir Québec31.4 (19–45)Parti Québécois15.1 (5–26)
Soulanges2022: CAQ 41%CAQ 38 (24–51) · PLQ 20 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 41%CAQLikely89%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec37.7 (24–51)Liberal20.3 (9–32)Parti Québécois16.3 (6–28)Conservative10.6 (3–20)Québec solidaire10.0 (2–20)
Taillon2022: CAQ 41.5%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 29 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5%CAQLeans72%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec36.4 (23–50)Parti Québécois28.5 (16–42)Québec solidaire17.9 (8–29)
Taschereau2022: QS 39.5%QS 37 (23–52) · PQ 31 (17–45)Québec solidaire 39.5%QSLeans65%LeansQuébec solidaire37.1 (23–52)Parti Québécois30.8 (17–45)Coalition Avenir Québec17.8 (5–32)
Terrebonne2022: CAQ 49.8%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 27 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8%CAQLikely90%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec44.6 (31–58)Parti Québécois27.1 (15–40)Québec solidaire12.2 (3–22)
Trois-Rivières2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 22 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8%CAQSolid95%SolidCoalition Avenir Québec46.2 (32–60)Parti Québécois21.6 (10–34)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)Conservative10.1 (2–19)
Ungava2022: CAQ 36.3%CAQ 33 (20–47) · QS 24 (12–36)Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3%CAQLeans71%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec33.0 (20–47)Québec solidaire24.0 (12–36)Parti Québécois19.8 (9–32)Liberal15.3 (5–26)
Vachon2022: CAQ 44.9%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 21 (9–32)Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9%CAQLikely93%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec40.7 (27–54)Parti Québécois20.5 (9–32)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)Liberal13.2 (4–24)
Vanier-Les Rivières2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 44 (28–59) · PQ 20 (8–33)Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6%CAQLikely92%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec43.6 (28–59)Parti Québécois20.2 (8–33)Conservative16.8 (6–29)Québec solidaire11.6 (2–23)
Vaudreuil2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 30 (17–43) · CAQ 30 (17–43)Liberal 34.2%PLQToss-up51%Toss-upLiberal30.1 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec29.7 (17–43)Parti Québécois13.6 (4–24)
Verchères2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 29 (17–41)Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%CAQLikely89%LikelyCoalition Avenir Québec45.9 (32–59)Parti Québécois28.8 (17–41)Québec solidaire13.6 (4–24)
Verdun2022: QS 30.7%QS 30 (18–43) · PLQ 26 (13–38)Québec solidaire 30.7%QSToss-up59%Toss-upQuébec solidaire30.4 (18–43)Liberal25.5 (13–38)Coalition Avenir Québec19.8 (9–32)Parti Québécois14.2 (5–25)
Viau2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 34 (20–47) · QS 30 (18–44)Liberal 38.3%PLQLeans60%LeansLiberal33.9 (20–47)Québec solidaire30.3 (18–44)Parti Québécois13.2 (4–24)Coalition Avenir Québec12.4 (3–24)
Vimont-Auteuil2022: CAQ 34.3%CAQ 31 (19–45) · PLQ 26 (14–39)Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3%CAQLeans63%LeansCoalition Avenir Québec31.3 (19–45)Liberal26.2 (14–39)Parti Québécois17.3 (7–29)Québec solidaire11.2 (3–21)Conservative10.9 (3–20)
Westmount-Saint-Louis2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 44 (29–58) · Oth 16 (3–28)Liberal 50.4%PLQSolid96%SolidLiberal44.3 (29–58)Other16.1 (3–28)Québec solidaire12.5 (4–23)Parti Québécois11.2 (2–22)
Îles-de-la-Madeleine2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 56 (42–69) · CAQ 32 (20–45)Parti Québécois 46.4%PQLikely94%LikelyParti Québécois55.8 (42–69)Coalition Avenir Québec32.3 (20–45)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 21 Aug 2023, with the spread of recent polls
PartyAverageSpreadChange
Parti Québécois22.021.9–22.1−0.6
Liberal12.011.9–12.1−1.1
Conservative11.010.9–11.1+0.8
Coalition Avenir Québec37.036.9–37.1+1.5
Québec solidaire15.014.9–15.1−1.4
Others3.0 +0.6

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 21 Aug 2023, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 12 Jun 2023, in points.

Polls included (7)

The 7 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterPQPLQPCQCAQQS
21 AugLegerNew1,036±3.02212113715
12 JunLeger1,042±3.0231393716
3 JunAngus Reid506–2213123317
1 MayLeger1,201±3.02214103616
26 FebLeger1,044±3.0181494017
10 Dec 2022Leger1,002±3.11814104114
6 Nov 2022Leger1,028±3.11814113619

Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2022 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

02080642023AprJulOct2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulElection dayParti Québécois 52Liberal 35Coalition Avenir Québec 16Conservative 13Québec solidaire 7

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

0255075100%2023AprJulOct2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulMinority 81%Parti Québécois 18%Coalition Avenir Québec <1%Liberal <1%

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPQPLQPCQCAQQSPQ maj.CAQ maj.
4 Oct 2026Forum Research, Research Co.52351316718%<1%81%
3 Oct 2026Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas50341220717%1%82%
27 Sep 2026Leger, Synopsis47341126714%1%85%
26 Sep 2026Pallas45331030711%2%87%
21 Sep 2026Leger44331031710%2%87%
17 Sep 2026Pallas, Segma44331032710%2%87%
14 Sep 2026Nanos423493469%3%88%
13 Sep 2026Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis413393568%4%88%
72 earlier projections
Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPQPLQPCQCAQQSPQ maj.PLQ maj.
12 Sep 2026Pallas Data4633832613%<1%84%
6 Sep 2026Leger4733831615%<1%83%
5 Sep 2026Pallas Data4733832615%<1%83%
30 Aug 2026Leger4833830615%<1%82%
29 Aug 2026Pallas Data4934829516%<1%82%
26 Aug 2026Synopsis5034828618%<1%80%
24 Aug 2026Leger5736819531%1%68%
9 Aug 2026Leger5937815636%1%63%
2 Aug 2026Pallas Data6039813439%1%60%
15 Jun 2026Leger5339720521%1%77%
12 Jun 2026Pallas Data5239720619%1%79%
8 Jun 2026Synopsis5141720518%2%79%
18 May 2026Leger5144817417%4%78%
15 May 2026Mainstreet Research5146815417%5%77%
10 May 2026Synopsis594588434%5%61%
9 May 2026Pallas Data594587435%5%59%
27 Apr 2026Liaison Strategies624684444%7%49%
20 Apr 2026Leger614694540%6%53%
14 Apr 2026Pallas Data604992538%9%53%
6 Apr 2026Leger654781454%8%38%
22 Mar 2026Leger6545101554%5%41%
2 Mar 2026Leger6442113552%2%46%
22 Feb 2026Pallas Data6540114556%1%43%
1 Feb 2026Innovative Research6938103470%1%29%
29 Jan 2026Leger713793576%1%23%
10 Jan 2026Pallas Data763392588%<1%12%
15 Dec 2025Leger793183491%<1%9%
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid, Leger803282492%<1%8%
25 Nov 2025Pallas Data733783480%1%19%
10 Nov 2025Leger693984470%1%28%
19 Oct 2025Pallas Data753682486%1%13%
28 Sep 2025Leger803572392%<1%7%
15 Sep 2025Leger803561393%<1%6%
6 Sep 2025Pallas Data803471493%<1%6%
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid793372592%<1%8%
18 Aug 2025Leger743755481%1%18%
24 Jun 2025Mainstreet Research634196648%2%50%
22 Jun 2025Leger633997648%1%50%
16 Jun 2025Pallas Data663796758%1%41%
11 May 2025Leger6832713662%<1%37%
10 Mar 2025Leger5831722734%<1%64%
1 Mar 2025Pallas Data6232816647%<1%53%
2 Feb 2025Leger6029624740%<1%58%
19 Jan 2025Leger6325427750%<1%48%
2 Dec 2024Leger6727617861%<1%38%
26 Nov 2024Pallas Data7228513774%<1%25%
11 Nov 2024Leger7027516868%<1%32%
6 Oct 2024Leger6128623843%<1%55%
26 Sep 2024Pallas Data6128722844%<1%54%
3 Sep 2024Pallas Data52287291023%<1%75%
25 Aug 2024Leger48276331116%<1%81%
22 Jun 2024Pallas Data6626520956%<1%42%
8 Jun 2024Pallas Data63274221048%<1%50%
3 Jun 2024Leger6027426942%<1%56%
13 May 2024Leger6529519854%<1%45%
21 Apr 2024Leger, Pallas Data6629418958%<1%41%
18 Mar 2024Leger64245211250%<1%48%
24 Feb 2024Pallas Data58255261235%<1%63%
5 Feb 2024Leger59255251238%<1%61%
24 Jan 2024Pallas Data62265201246%<1%53%
4 Dec 2023Leger48254361217%<1%78%
18 Nov 2023Pallas Data3926545128%<1%82%
30 Oct 2023Leger1925467121%<1%38%
27 Sep 2023Pallas Data112337612<1%<1%12%
25 Sep 2023Leger122337612<1%<1%13%
21 Aug 2023 (this page)Leger112028111<1%0%6%
12 Jun 2023Leger122227812<1%0%10%
3 Jun 2023Angus Reid132337513<1%<1%15%
1 May 2023Leger112317912<1%<1%8%
26 Feb 2023Leger62118612<1%<1%2%
10 Dec 2022Leger62218711<1%<1%2%
6 Nov 2022Leger72228015<1%<1%6%

How the projection works

The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.

The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.

Full methodology · The 2026 election results