Quebec seat projection, 27 September 2023

As of 27 September 2023, from 9 polls · election day 5 October 2026

These projections were computed after the Quebec general election of 5 October 2026, as the site’s projection would have run from the 2022 election: each from only the polls published up to its date. Each riding’s 2022 result, recast onto the 127 ridings of 2026, is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since 2022, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 4 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 27 September 2023.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the CAQ win a median of 76 seats (90% range 55–89) and a majority in 88%; the Liberals 23 seats (90% range 15–30); Québec solidaire 12 seats (90% range 7–20); the PQ 11 seats (90% range 4–27); the Conservatives 3 seats (90% range 0–10). No party wins a majority in 12%.

Coalition Avenir Québec majority
88%
Most seats in 98% of simulations
No majority
12%
11 ridings with no party above 60%

64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

11 seats (4–27)

Liberal

23 seats (15–30)

Conservative

3 seats (0–10)

Coalition Avenir Québec

76 seats (55–89) · majority 88%

Québec solidaire

12 seats (7–20)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 64 of 127 seats. Other wins no seat in the median simulation; Other wins at least one in 1%.

Seat distributions

64 for a majority

Parti Québécois

Median 11, 90%: 4–27

Most frequent: 9 (8.7%)

Liberal

Median 23, 90%: 15–30

Most frequent: 24 (8.8%)

Conservative

Median 3, 90%: 0–10

Most frequent: 2 (15.5%)

Coalition Avenir Québec

Median 76, 90%: 55–89

Majority in 88%

Most frequent: 75 (4.9%)

Québec solidaire

Median 12, 90%: 7–20

Most frequent: 12 (13.4%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
Party	Median seats	90% range	Most frequent	Chance of a majority
Parti Québécois	11	4 to 27	9 seats, 8.7% of simulations	<1%
Liberal	23	15 to 30	24 seats, 8.8% of simulations	<1%
Conservative	3	0 to 10	2 seats, 15.5% of simulations	<1%
Coalition Avenir Québec	76	55 to 89	75 seats, 4.9% of simulations	88%
Québec solidaire	12	7 to 20	12 seats, 13.4% of simulations	<1%

The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 64 of 127 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats.

What changed

New poll

Pallas Data, fieldwork to 27 Sep 2023, 1,095 respondentsCoalition Avenir Québec 34.5 · Parti Québécois 19 · Québec solidaire 15.4 · Liberal 14.7 · Conservative 14.6

Change since 25 Sep 2023

Median seats: Parti Québécois −1, Liberal 0, Conservative 0, Coalition Avenir Québec 0, Québec solidaire 0.
Chance of a majority, in points: Coalition Avenir Québec +1; no majority −1.
Projected leader changed in 3 ridings: Vimont-Auteuil (Coalition Avenir Québec to Liberal); Jean-Talon (Parti Québécois to Coalition Avenir Québec); Anjou-Louis-Riel (Coalition Avenir Québec to Liberal).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
	Parti Québécois	Liberal	Conservative	Coalition Avenir Québec	Québec solidaire
Solid 95%+	2	11	0	13	5
Likely 80–95%	2	6	0	50	3
Leans 60–80%	1	5	2	14	2
Toss-up <60%	11

Quebec

Greater Montreal

Montreal and Laval

Quebec City

Seats changing hands

Won in 2022Projected

PQParti Québécois3

PLQLiberal21

CAQCoalition Avenir Québec92

QSQuébec solidaire11

PQParti Québécois5

PLQLiberal22

PCQConservative2

CAQCoalition Avenir Québec77

QSQuébec solidaire10

Toss-upToss-up11

Ridings by party: won in 2022, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party	2022	Projected	Gains	Losses	Toss-ups
PQParti Québécois	3	5	2	–	–
PLQLiberal	21	22	1	–	–
PCQConservative	0	2	2	–	–
CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	92	77	–	5	10
QSQuébec solidaire	11	10	–	–	1
Toss-up		11

Each riding from the party that won it at the 2022 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2022 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Parti Québécois64th-best riding: Trois-Rivières, 4% · chance of a majority <1%

Coalition Avenir Québec64th-best riding: Montmorency, 79% · chance of a majority 88%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 64 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 64th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 127 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2022, toss-ups included.

All 127 ridings: 2022 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
					Projected share (90% range)
Abitibi-EstRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PQ 18 (8–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.3 (27–54)Parti Québécois18.0 (8–29)Liberal14.2 (5–25)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25)Conservative11.8 (3–22)
Abitibi-OuestRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 28 (15–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	80%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.4 (26–53)Parti Québécois27.8 (15–41)Québec solidaire16.8 (7–28)Conservative10.1 (2–20)
AcadieMontreal · 2022: PLQ 42.2%PLQ 41 (27–55) · QS 18 (7–29)	Liberal 42.2%	PLQLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal41.0 (27–55)Québec solidaire17.7 (7–29)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–26)Coalition Avenir Québec12.2 (3–23)Conservative11.3 (3–21)
Anjou-Louis-RielMontreal · 2022: CAQ 35.5%PLQ 30 (17–43) · CAQ 29 (17–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 35.5%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up	49%	Toss-up	Liberal30.0 (17–43)Coalition Avenir Québec29.3 (17–43)Parti Québécois16.4 (6–28)Québec solidaire15.3 (6–26)
ArgenteuilRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 22 (10–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec38.5 (25–52)Parti Québécois21.8 (10–34)Conservative14.3 (5–25)Liberal10.8 (2–21)Québec solidaire10.6 (2–20)
Arthabaska-L'ÉrableRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.8%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PCQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.9 (31–58)Conservative24.8 (13–37)Parti Québécois15.1 (6–26)
Beauce-NordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.4%PCQ 43 (30–56) · CAQ 37 (24–51)	Coalition Avenir Québec 43.4%	PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans	68%	Leans	Conservative43.3 (30–56)Coalition Avenir Québec37.1 (24–51)Parti Québécois10.1 (2–20)
Beauce-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.6%PCQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 38 (25–52)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%	PCQConservativegain from CAQLeans	66%	Leans	Conservative44.2 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec38.3 (25–52)
BeauharnoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 23 (12–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	95%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec46.0 (32–60)Parti Québécois22.8 (12–35)Québec solidaire13.3 (4–24)
BellechasseRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.7%CAQ 39 (26–52) · PCQ 35 (22–49)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	61%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec39.1 (26–52)Conservative35.3 (22–49)Parti Québécois13.6 (4–25)
BellefeuilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 42 (28–55) · PQ 25 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	88%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec41.6 (28–55)Parti Québécois25.1 (13–38)Québec solidaire15.3 (5–26)Conservative11.7 (3–21)
BerthierRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.2%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 28 (16–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	87%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.2 (29–56)Parti Québécois27.7 (16–40)Québec solidaire14.1 (5–25)Conservative10.7 (2–20)
BertrandRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 38 (25–51) · PQ 28 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	78%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec37.7 (25–51)Parti Québécois27.5 (15–40)Québec solidaire16.5 (7–28)
BlainvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.4%CAQ 42 (29–56) · PQ 22 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec42.1 (29–56)Parti Québécois21.5 (10–33)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)Liberal10.6 (2–21)
BonaventureRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 44.5%PQ 38 (25–52) · CAQ 37 (24–50)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.5%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois38.4 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec36.5 (24–50)Québec solidaire10.9 (2–21)
BorduasMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.9%CAQ 43 (30–57) · PQ 27 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.1 (30–57)Parti Québécois26.5 (14–39)Québec solidaire15.8 (6–27)
Bourassa-SauvéMontreal · 2022: PLQ 40.1%PLQ 40 (26–53) · CAQ 20 (8–32)	Liberal 40.1%	PLQLiberalLikely	91%	Likely	Liberal39.6 (26–53)Coalition Avenir Québec19.6 (8–32)Québec solidaire16.0 (6–27)Parti Québécois13.4 (4–24)
Brome-MissisquoiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.3%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PQ 17 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.0 (26–53)Parti Québécois17.3 (7–29)Québec solidaire16.7 (6–28)Liberal12.4 (3–23)Conservative10.7 (2–20)
Camille-LaurinMontreal · 2022: PQ 41.6%PQ 50 (36–63) · CAQ 24 (13–37)	Parti Québécois 41.6%	PQParti QuébécoisSolid	96%	Solid	Parti Québécois49.7 (36–63)Coalition Avenir Québec24.2 (13–37)Liberal14.9 (5–26)
ChamblyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.5%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 24 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec41.0 (27–54)Parti Québécois24.4 (13–37)Québec solidaire16.8 (7–28)
ChamplainRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 55.9%CAQ 49 (35–63) · PQ 18 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 55.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec48.8 (35–63)Parti Québécois17.6 (7–29)Conservative17.6 (8–29)
ChapleauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.2%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 15 (5–26)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec45.5 (32–59)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–26)Québec solidaire14.0 (5–25)Liberal13.0 (4–23)Conservative10.4 (2–20)
CharlesbourgQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45%CAQ 38 (23–53) · PCQ 20 (8–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	84%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec37.9 (23–53)Conservative20.3 (8–33)Parti Québécois19.9 (8–33)Québec solidaire13.4 (3–26)
Charlevoix-Côte-de-BeaupréRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 48.2%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	90%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.7 (27–54)Parti Québécois22.4 (11–34)Conservative18.0 (8–29)Québec solidaire12.8 (4–23)
ChauveauQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 46.8%CAQ 40 (25–55) · PCQ 32 (18–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	70%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec40.1 (25–55)Conservative32.2 (18–46)Parti Québécois12.2 (2–24)
ChicoutimiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 62.3%CAQ 54 (40–68) · PQ 20 (10–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 62.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec54.4 (40–68)Parti Québécois20.2 (10–32)Québec solidaire12.6 (3–23)
ChomedeyMontreal · 2022: PLQ 37.1%PLQ 37 (22–50) · PCQ 21 (10–32)	Liberal 37.1%	PLQLiberalLikely	84%	Likely	Liberal36.5 (22–50)Conservative20.5 (10–32)Coalition Avenir Québec20.4 (9–33)Parti Québécois11.2 (2–22)
Chutes-de-la-ChaudièreQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.5%CAQ 40 (26–56) · PCQ 27 (14–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	81%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.3 (26–56)Conservative27.2 (14–41)Parti Québécois16.3 (5–29)
ChâteauguayMontreal · 2022: CAQ 39.1%CAQ 33 (20–46) · PLQ 24 (12–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 39.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	71%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec32.7 (20–46)Liberal24.4 (12–37)Parti Québécois17.1 (7–28)Québec solidaire13.3 (4–23)Conservative10.1 (2–20)
Côte-du-SudRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47.7%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PCQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec41.0 (27–55)Conservative23.6 (12–36)Parti Québécois18.5 (8–30)
D'Arcy-McGeeMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.4%PLQ 51 (36–64) · PCQ 22 (11–34)	Liberal 51.4%	PLQLiberalSolid	97%	Solid	Liberal50.5 (36–64)Conservative21.9 (11–34)
Daniel-JohnsonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 45 (31–59) · PQ 21 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	95%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec45.0 (31–59)Parti Québécois21.2 (10–33)Québec solidaire14.7 (5–26)Conservative13.2 (4–24)
Deux-MontagnesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.1%CAQ 40 (26–53) · PQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.7 (26–53)Parti Québécois23.5 (12–36)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–25)
Drummond-Bois-FrancsRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 21 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.3 (30–58)Parti Québécois21.2 (10–33)Conservative17.2 (7–28)Québec solidaire11.1 (3–21)
DubucRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.6%CAQ 50 (36–63) · PQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 57.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec49.7 (36–63)Parti Québécois24.1 (12–36)Québec solidaire11.0 (3–21)Conservative10.9 (3–21)
DuplessisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.1%CAQ 37 (25–51) · PQ 32 (20–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	66%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec37.4 (25–51)Parti Québécois32.1 (20–45)Conservative15.2 (6–26)
FabreMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.8%PLQ 30 (17–44) · CAQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 31.8%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQLeans	61%	Leans	Liberal30.3 (17–44)Coalition Avenir Québec25.8 (14–39)Conservative15.1 (6–26)Parti Québécois14.6 (5–26)Québec solidaire11.6 (3–22)
GaspéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.4%PQ 46 (32–60) · CAQ 33 (20–47)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.4%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLikely	82%	Likely	Parti Québécois46.0 (32–60)Coalition Avenir Québec33.1 (20–47)
GatineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.9%CAQ 40 (26–54) · PLQ 19 (8–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.3 (26–54)Liberal19.1 (8–30)Parti Québécois14.7 (5–26)Québec solidaire12.6 (4–23)Conservative10.9 (3–21)
GouinMontreal · 2022: QS 59.4%QS 59 (45–72) · PQ 19 (8–30)	Québec solidaire 59.4%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	99%	Solid	Québec solidaire59.0 (45–72)Parti Québécois18.7 (8–30)
GranbyRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 57.9%CAQ 51 (36–64) · PQ 17 (7–29)	Coalition Avenir Québec 57.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	98%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec50.8 (36–64)Parti Québécois17.3 (7–29)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26)Conservative10.1 (2–20)
GroulxMontreal · 2022: CAQ 47.8%CAQ 41 (27–54) · PQ 21 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	91%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.6 (27–54)Parti Québécois21.4 (10–33)Québec solidaire16.8 (7–28)Liberal10.5 (2–21)
Hochelaga-MaisonneuveMontreal · 2022: QS 50.8%QS 51 (36–64) · PQ 22 (10–34)	Québec solidaire 50.8%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	97%	Solid	Québec solidaire50.6 (36–64)Parti Québécois21.5 (10–34)Coalition Avenir Québec13.3 (4–25)
HullRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 35.3%CAQ 29 (17–43) · PLQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 35.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	55%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec29.2 (17–43)Liberal25.1 (13–37)Québec solidaire21.1 (10–33)Parti Québécois14.8 (5–26)
HuntingdonRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 40 (27–54) · PQ 18 (7–30)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.3 (27–54)Parti Québécois17.9 (7–30)Liberal13.4 (4–24)Conservative13.2 (4–23)Québec solidaire11.8 (3–22)
IbervilleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 22 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	95%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec45.6 (32–59)Parti Québécois21.5 (10–33)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25)Conservative11.1 (3–21)
Jacques-CartierMontreal · 2022: PLQ 62.6%PLQ 62 (47–75) · PCQ 11 (3–21)	Liberal 62.6%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal62.0 (47–75)Conservative11.3 (3–21)
Jean-LesageQuebec City · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 38 (24–53) · CAQ 25 (12–40)	Québec solidaire 37.7%	QSQuébec solidaireLikely	81%	Likely	Québec solidaire38.4 (24–53)Coalition Avenir Québec25.0 (12–40)Parti Québécois16.0 (5–29)Conservative13.8 (3–26)
Jean-TalonQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 32.5%CAQ 26 (12–41) · PQ 25 (12–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 32.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	38%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec26.0 (12–41)Parti Québécois24.8 (12–38)Québec solidaire24.1 (12–38)Liberal12.6 (3–24)
Jeanne-Mance-VigerMontreal · 2022: PLQ 53.9%PLQ 54 (39–67) · CAQ 12 (3–23)	Liberal 53.9%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal53.5 (39–67)Coalition Avenir Québec11.9 (3–23)Conservative11.6 (3–22)Québec solidaire11.0 (3–21)
JolietteRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.6%PQ 39 (25–52) · CAQ 37 (23–51)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.6%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois39.0 (25–52)Coalition Avenir Québec37.1 (23–51)Québec solidaire11.3 (3–22)
JonquièreRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 59.4%CAQ 51 (37–65) · PQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 59.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	95%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec51.1 (37–65)Parti Québécois26.2 (14–39)
L'AssomptionMontreal · 2022: CAQ 56.8%CAQ 49 (35–62) · PQ 22 (10–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 56.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec48.9 (35–62)Parti Québécois21.6 (10–34)Québec solidaire15.0 (6–26)
La PeltrieQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 44.6%CAQ 38 (23–53) · PCQ 29 (16–43)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	73%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec37.9 (23–53)Conservative28.9 (16–43)Parti Québécois15.1 (4–28)
La PinièreMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.5%PLQ 38 (24–52) · CAQ 26 (13–38)	Liberal 38.5%	PLQLiberalLikely	83%	Likely	Liberal38.1 (24–52)Coalition Avenir Québec25.6 (13–38)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23)Québec solidaire10.4 (2–20)Conservative10.2 (2–20)
La PrairieMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.7%CAQ 46 (32–59) · PQ 17 (7–28)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec45.8 (32–59)Parti Québécois17.0 (7–28)Québec solidaire13.7 (4–24)Liberal13.6 (4–24)
LaFontaineMontreal · 2022: PLQ 51.7%PLQ 51 (36–65) · CAQ 15 (5–27)	Liberal 51.7%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal51.1 (36–65)Coalition Avenir Québec15.1 (5–27)Conservative13.2 (4–23)
LabelleRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.1%CAQ 45 (32–59) · PQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec45.2 (32–59)Parti Québécois25.9 (14–39)Québec solidaire12.7 (4–23)
Lac-Saint-JeanRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.5%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 33 (21–46)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	77%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec43.2 (29–57)Parti Québécois33.3 (21–46)Conservative11.0 (3–21)
Laurier-DorionMontreal · 2022: QS 48.8%QS 49 (35–62) · PLQ 19 (8–30)	Québec solidaire 48.8%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	97%	Solid	Québec solidaire49.0 (35–62)Liberal18.6 (8–30)Parti Québécois14.9 (5–26)
Laval-des-RapidesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 31.9%PLQ 28 (16–41) · CAQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 31.9%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up	51%	Toss-up	Liberal28.1 (16–41)Coalition Avenir Québec25.9 (14–39)Parti Québécois18.0 (7–29)Québec solidaire16.7 (7–28)
Laviolette-Saint-MauriceRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 22 (11–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.5 (31–58)Parti Québécois22.3 (11–35)Conservative16.7 (7–27)
Les PlainesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 23 (11–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec42.5 (29–56)Parti Québécois22.8 (11–35)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)Conservative11.6 (3–21)
Lotbinière-FrontenacRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 43.7%CAQ 37 (24–51) · PCQ 33 (20–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 43.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	64%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec37.0 (24–51)Conservative32.5 (20–45)Parti Québécois13.7 (4–24)
Louis-HébertQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.2%CAQ 40 (25–55) · PQ 23 (10–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	87%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.8 (25–55)Parti Québécois22.7 (10–36)Conservative14.4 (4–27)Québec solidaire12.4 (3–24)
LévisQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 48.8%CAQ 42 (26–57) · PCQ 21 (9–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec41.5 (26–57)Conservative20.8 (9–34)Parti Québécois18.5 (7–31)Québec solidaire12.0 (2–24)
Marguerite-BourgeoysMontreal · 2022: PLQ 44.8%PLQ 44 (30–58) · CAQ 18 (7–30)	Liberal 44.8%	PLQLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal44.2 (30–58)Coalition Avenir Québec18.0 (7–30)Parti Québécois11.4 (3–22)Conservative11.0 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.6 (2–21)
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoieRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 51.7%CAQ 44 (30–58) · PQ 20 (10–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.3 (30–58)Parti Québécois20.4 (10–33)Conservative15.5 (6–27)Québec solidaire14.3 (5–25)
Marie-VictorinMontreal · 2022: CAQ 33.1%PQ 32 (19–45) · CAQ 26 (15–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 33.1%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQLeans	60%	Leans	Parti Québécois31.9 (19–45)Coalition Avenir Québec26.3 (15–39)Québec solidaire22.6 (11–35)
MarquetteMontreal · 2022: PLQ 46.8%PLQ 46 (31–60) · CAQ 17 (6–29)	Liberal 46.8%	PLQLiberalSolid	96%	Solid	Liberal46.1 (31–60)Coalition Avenir Québec16.7 (6–29)Parti Québécois12.7 (3–23)Québec solidaire11.7 (3–22)
MaskinongéRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53.5%CAQ 46 (33–60) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	96%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.4 (33–60)Parti Québécois20.1 (9–32)Conservative16.0 (6–27)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20)
MassonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 25 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.5 (31–58)Parti Québécois25.2 (13–37)Québec solidaire13.6 (5–24)
Matane-Matapédia-MitisRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 67.4%PQ 74 (61–85) · CAQ 11 (2–22)	Parti Québécois 67.4%	PQParti QuébécoisSolid	>99%	Solid	Parti Québécois74.0 (61–85)Coalition Avenir Québec10.9 (2–22)
Maurice-RichardMontreal · 2022: QS 34.8%QS 35 (22–49) · CAQ 21 (10–34)	Québec solidaire 34.8%	QSQuébec solidaireLikely	80%	Likely	Québec solidaire35.3 (22–49)Coalition Avenir Québec21.2 (10–34)Parti Québécois20.3 (10–32)Liberal16.5 (6–28)
MercierMontreal · 2022: QS 53.9%QS 54 (39–67) · PQ 20 (9–31)	Québec solidaire 53.9%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	98%	Solid	Québec solidaire53.5 (39–67)Parti Québécois19.7 (9–31)Liberal13.0 (4–23)
Mille-ÎlesMontreal · 2022: PLQ 31.8%PLQ 31 (18–45) · CAQ 26 (14–39)	Liberal 31.8%	PLQLiberalLeans	64%	Leans	Liberal31.1 (18–45)Coalition Avenir Québec25.5 (14–39)Parti Québécois17.7 (8–29)Québec solidaire13.4 (4–24)Conservative10.1 (2–20)
MirabelMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.4%CAQ 43 (29–57) · PQ 23 (12–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec42.8 (29–57)Parti Québécois23.0 (12–35)Québec solidaire14.6 (5–25)Conservative11.1 (3–21)
Mont-Royal-OutremontMontreal · 2022: PLQ 39.4%PLQ 38 (24–52) · QS 21 (10–33)	Liberal 39.4%	PLQLiberalLikely	89%	Likely	Liberal38.3 (24–52)Québec solidaire20.7 (10–33)Parti Québécois16.4 (6–28)Coalition Avenir Québec10.8 (2–22)
MontarvilleMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 25 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	83%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec38.6 (25–52)Parti Québécois25.4 (13–38)Québec solidaire16.5 (6–28)Liberal11.7 (3–22)
MontmorencyQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 38 (24–54) · PCQ 26 (13–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	79%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec38.3 (24–54)Conservative26.0 (13–40)Parti Québécois16.5 (6–29)Québec solidaire12.5 (3–24)
MéganticRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 39 (26–53) · PCQ 22 (11–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	88%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.3 (26–53)Conservative21.7 (11–33)Parti Québécois18.1 (8–30)Québec solidaire14.1 (5–25)
NelliganMontreal · 2022: PLQ 52%PLQ 52 (37–65) · PCQ 15 (6–26)	Liberal 52%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal51.6 (37–65)Conservative15.2 (6–26)Coalition Avenir Québec11.9 (3–23)
Nicolet-BécancourRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 47%CAQ 40 (26–54) · PQ 23 (11–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	85%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.5 (26–54)Parti Québécois23.0 (11–35)Conservative22.7 (12–35)
Notre-Dame-de-GrâceMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.5%PLQ 50 (35–63) · QS 16 (6–28)	Liberal 50.5%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.5 (35–63)Québec solidaire16.0 (6–28)Other12.5 (1–23)
OrfordRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.8%CAQ 36 (23–50) · PQ 19 (8–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 42.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	87%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec36.0 (23–50)Parti Québécois19.3 (8–31)Québec solidaire16.9 (7–28)Liberal14.7 (5–25)Conservative10.6 (2–20)
PapineauRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 53%CAQ 46 (32–60) · PQ 16 (6–27)	Coalition Avenir Québec 53%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	97%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.2 (32–60)Parti Québécois15.6 (6–27)Québec solidaire14.5 (5–25)Conservative13.2 (4–23)
Pierre-LaporteMontreal · 2022: CAQ 30.8%PLQ 28 (15–41) · CAQ 25 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 30.8%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up	52%	Toss-up	Liberal28.1 (15–41)Coalition Avenir Québec24.9 (13–38)Québec solidaire18.2 (8–30)Parti Québécois17.6 (7–29)
Pointe-aux-TremblesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 45.9%CAQ 38 (25–52) · PQ 27 (15–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	81%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec38.4 (25–52)Parti Québécois26.7 (15–39)Québec solidaire15.7 (6–27)
PontiacRest of Quebec · 2022: PLQ 43.7%PLQ 43 (29–57) · CAQ 20 (8–32)	Liberal 43.7%	PLQLiberalLikely	94%	Likely	Liberal43.2 (29–57)Coalition Avenir Québec19.5 (8–32)Parti Québécois10.9 (2–21)Conservative10.8 (3–21)Québec solidaire10.7 (2–21)
PortneufRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.7%CAQ 41 (27–55) · PCQ 31 (18–44)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	76%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec40.6 (27–55)Conservative31.0 (18–44)Parti Québécois14.9 (5–26)
PrévostRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 39 (25–52) · PQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	82%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec38.8 (25–52)Parti Québécois26.4 (14–39)Québec solidaire15.4 (6–27)Conservative11.4 (3–21)
René-LévesqueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 58.9%CAQ 51 (37–64) · PQ 28 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 58.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec50.5 (37–64)Parti Québécois28.3 (16–41)
RepentignyMontreal · 2022: CAQ 52.6%CAQ 45 (31–58) · PQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec45.0 (31–58)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–36)Québec solidaire13.2 (4–24)
RichelieuRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.8%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 28 (16–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 54.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec46.9 (33–60)Parti Québécois27.7 (16–40)Québec solidaire10.9 (2–21)
RichmondRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 46.2%CAQ 39 (26–53) · QS 22 (11–34)	Coalition Avenir Québec 46.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	88%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec39.3 (26–53)Québec solidaire22.2 (11–34)Parti Québécois18.0 (8–30)Conservative13.4 (5–24)
RimouskiRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 41.8%PQ 36 (23–49) · CAQ 34 (21–47)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.8%	PQParti Québécoisgain from CAQToss-up	56%	Toss-up	Parti Québécois36.1 (23–49)Coalition Avenir Québec33.6 (21–47)Québec solidaire21.2 (10–33)
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 52.1%CAQ 44 (31–58) · PQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 52.1%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	93%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec44.3 (31–58)Parti Québécois24.0 (12–36)Québec solidaire15.1 (5–26)Conservative11.0 (3–21)
Robert-BaldwinMontreal · 2022: PLQ 57.8%PLQ 57 (42–71) · PCQ 16 (6–28)	Liberal 57.8%	PLQLiberalSolid	99%	Solid	Liberal57.3 (42–71)Conservative16.1 (6–28)
RobervalRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 56.2%CAQ 49 (34–63) · PQ 28 (15–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 56.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec48.5 (34–63)Parti Québécois27.8 (15–41)Conservative11.2 (3–21)
RosemontMontreal · 2022: QS 37.7%QS 38 (24–51) · PQ 28 (15–40)	Québec solidaire 37.7%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	77%	Leans	Québec solidaire37.5 (24–51)Parti Québécois27.5 (15–40)Coalition Avenir Québec17.1 (7–29)Liberal10.9 (2–21)
RousseauMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 24 (13–37)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	91%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec42.9 (29–56)Parti Québécois24.4 (13–37)Conservative14.8 (6–25)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–24)
Rouyn-Noranda-TémiscamingueRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 45.2%CAQ 38 (25–52) · QS 32 (19–45)	Coalition Avenir Québec 45.2%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	68%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec38.2 (25–52)Québec solidaire31.9 (19–45)Parti Québécois16.5 (6–28)
Saint-FrançoisRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 42.3%CAQ 36 (22–49) · QS 29 (17–42)	Coalition Avenir Québec 42.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	68%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec35.7 (22–49)Québec solidaire29.3 (17–42)Parti Québécois13.6 (4–25)Conservative11.0 (3–21)
Saint-Henri-Sainte-AnneMontreal · 2022: PLQ 36.2%PLQ 35 (22–49) · QS 28 (16–41)	Liberal 36.2%	PLQLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal35.2 (22–49)Québec solidaire28.4 (16–41)Parti Québécois12.7 (4–23)Coalition Avenir Québec12.7 (3–24)
Saint-HyacintheRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 54.4%CAQ 47 (33–60) · PQ 23 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 54.4%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecSolid	95%	Solid	Coalition Avenir Québec46.9 (33–60)Parti Québécois23.2 (12–36)Québec solidaire14.2 (5–25)
Saint-JeanMontreal · 2022: CAQ 50.6%CAQ 43 (29–56) · PQ 26 (14–39)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec42.8 (29–56)Parti Québécois26.0 (14–39)Québec solidaire15.2 (6–26)
Saint-JérômeMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.7%CAQ 42 (29–55) · PQ 26 (14–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.7%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec42.2 (29–55)Parti Québécois25.5 (14–38)Québec solidaire16.2 (6–27)
Saint-LaurentMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50%PLQ 49 (34–63) · PCQ 14 (5–24)	Liberal 50%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.2 (34–63)Conservative13.9 (5–24)Québec solidaire10.3 (2–20)Parti Québécois10.0 (2–20)
Sainte-Marie-Saint-JacquesMontreal · 2022: QS 47.6%QS 48 (34–61) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Québec solidaire 47.6%	QSQuébec solidaireSolid	97%	Solid	Québec solidaire47.7 (34–61)Parti Québécois20.0 (9–32)Liberal14.9 (5–26)
Sainte-RoseMontreal · 2022: CAQ 38.5%CAQ 32 (20–45) · PLQ 24 (12–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 38.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	71%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec32.1 (20–45)Liberal23.5 (12–36)Parti Québécois17.8 (7–29)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)
SanguinetMontreal · 2022: CAQ 48.9%CAQ 42 (28–55) · PQ 23 (11–35)	Coalition Avenir Québec 48.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	92%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec41.6 (28–55)Parti Québécois22.7 (11–35)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–24)Conservative10.4 (2–20)
SherbrookeRest of Quebec · 2022: QS 41.9%QS 43 (29–56) · CAQ 29 (16–43)	Québec solidaire 41.9%	QSQuébec solidaireLikely	84%	Likely	Québec solidaire43.0 (29–56)Coalition Avenir Québec28.8 (16–43)Parti Québécois13.8 (4–25)
SoulangesMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41%CAQ 35 (22–48) · PLQ 23 (11–36)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	80%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec34.8 (22–48)Liberal23.3 (11–36)Parti Québécois14.9 (5–26)Conservative12.7 (4–23)Québec solidaire10.9 (3–21)
TaillonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 41.5%CAQ 34 (21–48) · PQ 27 (15–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 41.5%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLeans	69%	Leans	Coalition Avenir Québec34.2 (21–48)Parti Québécois27.0 (15–40)Québec solidaire19.2 (9–31)Liberal11.0 (2–21)
TaschereauQuebec City · 2022: QS 39.5%QS 39 (25–54) · PQ 29 (16–43)	Québec solidaire 39.5%	QSQuébec solidaireLeans	75%	Leans	Québec solidaire39.0 (25–54)Parti Québécois29.0 (16–43)Coalition Avenir Québec15.8 (4–30)
TerrebonneMontreal · 2022: CAQ 49.8%CAQ 42 (29–56) · PQ 26 (14–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 49.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	90%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec42.2 (29–56)Parti Québécois25.7 (14–38)Québec solidaire13.3 (4–24)
Trois-RivièresRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 50.8%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 20 (9–32)	Coalition Avenir Québec 50.8%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	94%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.6 (30–57)Parti Québécois20.3 (9–32)Québec solidaire16.9 (7–28)Conservative12.2 (4–22)
UngavaRest of Quebec · 2022: CAQ 36.3%CAQ 30 (17–43) · QS 25 (13–38)	Coalition Avenir Québec 36.3%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecToss-up	60%	Toss-up	Coalition Avenir Québec29.9 (17–43)Québec solidaire24.9 (13–38)Parti Québécois18.0 (8–30)Liberal17.5 (7–29)
VachonMontreal · 2022: CAQ 44.9%CAQ 38 (25–51) · PQ 19 (8–31)	Coalition Avenir Québec 44.9%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	90%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec38.0 (25–51)Parti Québécois19.1 (8–31)Liberal15.7 (6–27)Québec solidaire15.6 (6–26)
Vanier-Les RivièresQuebec City · 2022: CAQ 47.6%CAQ 41 (26–56) · PCQ 20 (8–33)	Coalition Avenir Québec 47.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	89%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec40.9 (26–56)Conservative19.6 (8–33)Parti Québécois18.8 (7–32)Québec solidaire12.6 (2–24)
VaudreuilMontreal · 2022: PLQ 34.2%PLQ 34 (20–47) · CAQ 27 (15–40)	Liberal 34.2%	PLQLiberalLeans	70%	Leans	Liberal33.8 (20–47)Coalition Avenir Québec27.1 (15–40)Parti Québécois12.4 (3–23)Conservative11.6 (3–22)
VerchèresMontreal · 2022: CAQ 51.6%CAQ 44 (30–57) · PQ 28 (16–40)	Coalition Avenir Québec 51.6%	CAQCoalition Avenir QuébecLikely	88%	Likely	Coalition Avenir Québec43.8 (30–57)Parti Québécois27.5 (16–40)Québec solidaire14.9 (5–26)
VerdunMontreal · 2022: QS 30.7%QS 32 (19–45) · PLQ 29 (16–42)	Québec solidaire 30.7%	QSQuébec solidaireToss-up	57%	Toss-up	Québec solidaire31.6 (19–45)Liberal28.7 (16–42)Coalition Avenir Québec17.5 (7–30)Parti Québécois12.9 (4–24)
ViauMontreal · 2022: PLQ 38.3%PLQ 37 (24–51) · QS 31 (18–44)	Liberal 38.3%	PLQLiberalLeans	68%	Leans	Liberal37.2 (24–51)Québec solidaire31.0 (18–44)Parti Québécois11.7 (3–22)Coalition Avenir Québec10.3 (1–21)
Vimont-AuteuilMontreal · 2022: CAQ 34.3%PLQ 29 (16–43) · CAQ 28 (16–41)	Coalition Avenir Québec 34.3%	PLQLiberalgain from CAQToss-up	50%	Toss-up	Liberal29.3 (16–43)Coalition Avenir Québec28.3 (16–41)Parti Québécois15.7 (6–27)Conservative12.8 (4–23)Québec solidaire11.9 (3–22)
Westmount-Saint-LouisMontreal · 2022: PLQ 50.4%PLQ 50 (35–63) · QS 14 (4–24)	Liberal 50.4%	PLQLiberalSolid	98%	Solid	Liberal49.7 (35–63)Québec solidaire13.5 (4–24)Other10.4 (1–20)Parti Québécois10.1 (2–20)
Îles-de-la-MadeleineRest of Quebec · 2022: PQ 46.4%PQ 55 (41–68) · CAQ 31 (18–44)	Parti Québécois 46.4%	PQParti QuébécoisLikely	94%	Likely	Parti Québécois54.6 (41–68)Coalition Avenir Québec30.9 (18–44)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 27 Sep 2023, with the spread of recent polls
Party	Average	Spread	Change
Parti Québécois	20.6	19.1–22.1	−1.4
Liberal	14.1	13.4–14.9	+0.5
Conservative	13.1	11.7–14.5	+1.3
Coalition Avenir Québec	34.5	33.7–35.4	−0.1
Québec solidaire	16.1	15.2–16.9	−0.5
Others	1.6		+0.2

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 27 Sep 2023, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 25 Sep 2023, in points.

Polls included (9)

The 9 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork end	Pollster	Sample	MoE	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire
27 Sep	Pallas DataNew	1,095	±3.0	19	14.7	14.6	34.5	15.4
25 Sep	Leger	1,028	±3.1	22	14	12	34	17
21 Aug	Leger	1,036	±3.0	22	12	11	37	15
12 Jun	Leger	1,042	±3.0	23	13	9	37	16
3 Jun	Angus Reid	506	–	22	13	12	33	17
1 May	Leger	1,201	±3.0	22	14	10	36	16
26 Feb	Leger	1,044	±3.0	18	14	9	40	17
10 Dec 2022	Leger	1,002	±3.1	18	14	10	41	14
6 Nov 2022	Leger	1,028	±3.1	18	14	11	36	19

Quebec polls published between the 2022 election and voting day 2026, up to this projection, from the site’s Quebec polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2022 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 64 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The projections were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire	PQParti Québécois maj.	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec maj.	Minority
4 Oct 2026	Forum Research, Research Co.	52	35	13	16	7	18%	<1%	81%
3 Oct 2026	Leger, Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet, Pallas	50	34	12	20	7	17%	1%	82%
27 Sep 2026	Leger, Synopsis	47	34	11	26	7	14%	1%	85%
26 Sep 2026	Pallas	45	33	10	30	7	11%	2%	87%
21 Sep 2026	Leger	44	33	10	31	7	10%	2%	87%
17 Sep 2026	Pallas, Segma	44	33	10	32	7	10%	2%	87%
14 Sep 2026	Nanos	42	34	9	34	6	9%	3%	88%
13 Sep 2026	Leger, Mainstreet, Research Co., Synopsis	41	33	9	35	6	8%	4%	88%

72 earlier projections

Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
Projection	New polls	PQParti Québécois	PLQLiberal	PCQConservative	CAQCoalition Avenir Québec	QSQuébec solidaire	PQParti Québécois maj.	PLQLiberal maj.	Minority
12 Sep 2026	Pallas Data	46	33	8	32	6	13%	<1%	84%
6 Sep 2026	Leger	47	33	8	31	6	15%	<1%	83%
5 Sep 2026	Pallas Data	47	33	8	32	6	15%	<1%	83%
30 Aug 2026	Leger	48	33	8	30	6	15%	<1%	82%
29 Aug 2026	Pallas Data	49	34	8	29	5	16%	<1%	82%
26 Aug 2026	Synopsis	50	34	8	28	6	18%	<1%	80%
24 Aug 2026	Leger	57	36	8	19	5	31%	1%	68%
9 Aug 2026	Leger	59	37	8	15	6	36%	1%	63%
2 Aug 2026	Pallas Data	60	39	8	13	4	39%	1%	60%
15 Jun 2026	Leger	53	39	7	20	5	21%	1%	77%
12 Jun 2026	Pallas Data	52	39	7	20	6	19%	1%	79%
8 Jun 2026	Synopsis	51	41	7	20	5	18%	2%	79%
18 May 2026	Leger	51	44	8	17	4	17%	4%	78%
15 May 2026	Mainstreet Research	51	46	8	15	4	17%	5%	77%
10 May 2026	Synopsis	59	45	8	8	4	34%	5%	61%
9 May 2026	Pallas Data	59	45	8	7	4	35%	5%	59%
27 Apr 2026	Liaison Strategies	62	46	8	4	4	44%	7%	49%
20 Apr 2026	Leger	61	46	9	4	5	40%	6%	53%
14 Apr 2026	Pallas Data	60	49	9	2	5	38%	9%	53%
6 Apr 2026	Leger	65	47	8	1	4	54%	8%	38%
22 Mar 2026	Leger	65	45	10	1	5	54%	5%	41%
2 Mar 2026	Leger	64	42	11	3	5	52%	2%	46%
22 Feb 2026	Pallas Data	65	40	11	4	5	56%	1%	43%
1 Feb 2026	Innovative Research	69	38	10	3	4	70%	1%	29%
29 Jan 2026	Leger	71	37	9	3	5	76%	1%	23%
10 Jan 2026	Pallas Data	76	33	9	2	5	88%	<1%	12%
15 Dec 2025	Leger	79	31	8	3	4	91%	<1%	9%
1 Dec 2025	Angus Reid, Leger	80	32	8	2	4	92%	<1%	8%
25 Nov 2025	Pallas Data	73	37	8	3	4	80%	1%	19%
10 Nov 2025	Leger	69	39	8	4	4	70%	1%	28%
19 Oct 2025	Pallas Data	75	36	8	2	4	86%	1%	13%
28 Sep 2025	Leger	80	35	7	2	3	92%	<1%	7%
15 Sep 2025	Leger	80	35	6	1	3	93%	<1%	6%
6 Sep 2025	Pallas Data	80	34	7	1	4	93%	<1%	6%
5 Sep 2025	Angus Reid	79	33	7	2	5	92%	<1%	8%
18 Aug 2025	Leger	74	37	5	5	4	81%	1%	18%
24 Jun 2025	Mainstreet Research	63	41	9	6	6	48%	2%	50%
22 Jun 2025	Leger	63	39	9	7	6	48%	1%	50%
16 Jun 2025	Pallas Data	66	37	9	6	7	58%	1%	41%
11 May 2025	Leger	68	32	7	13	6	62%	<1%	37%
10 Mar 2025	Leger	58	31	7	22	7	34%	<1%	64%
1 Mar 2025	Pallas Data	62	32	8	16	6	47%	<1%	53%
2 Feb 2025	Leger	60	29	6	24	7	40%	<1%	58%
19 Jan 2025	Leger	63	25	4	27	7	50%	<1%	48%
2 Dec 2024	Leger	67	27	6	17	8	61%	<1%	38%
26 Nov 2024	Pallas Data	72	28	5	13	7	74%	<1%	25%
11 Nov 2024	Leger	70	27	5	16	8	68%	<1%	32%
6 Oct 2024	Leger	61	28	6	23	8	43%	<1%	55%
26 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	61	28	7	22	8	44%	<1%	54%
3 Sep 2024	Pallas Data	52	28	7	29	10	23%	<1%	75%
25 Aug 2024	Leger	48	27	6	33	11	16%	<1%	81%
22 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	66	26	5	20	9	56%	<1%	42%
8 Jun 2024	Pallas Data	63	27	4	22	10	48%	<1%	50%
3 Jun 2024	Leger	60	27	4	26	9	42%	<1%	56%
13 May 2024	Leger	65	29	5	19	8	54%	<1%	45%
21 Apr 2024	Leger, Pallas Data	66	29	4	18	9	58%	<1%	41%
18 Mar 2024	Leger	64	24	5	21	12	50%	<1%	48%
24 Feb 2024	Pallas Data	58	25	5	26	12	35%	<1%	63%
5 Feb 2024	Leger	59	25	5	25	12	38%	<1%	61%
24 Jan 2024	Pallas Data	62	26	5	20	12	46%	<1%	53%
4 Dec 2023	Leger	48	25	4	36	12	17%	<1%	78%
18 Nov 2023	Pallas Data	39	26	5	45	12	8%	<1%	82%
30 Oct 2023	Leger	19	25	4	67	12	1%	<1%	38%
27 Sep 2023 (this page)	Pallas Data	11	23	3	76	12	<1%	<1%	12%
25 Sep 2023	Leger	12	23	3	76	12	<1%	<1%	13%
21 Aug 2023	Leger	11	20	2	81	11	<1%	0%	6%
12 Jun 2023	Leger	12	22	2	78	12	<1%	0%	10%
3 Jun 2023	Angus Reid	13	23	3	75	13	<1%	<1%	15%
1 May 2023	Leger	11	23	1	79	12	<1%	<1%	8%
26 Feb 2023	Leger	6	21	1	86	12	<1%	<1%	2%
10 Dec 2022	Leger	6	22	1	87	11	<1%	<1%	2%
6 Nov 2022	Leger	7	22	2	80	15	<1%	<1%	6%

How the projection works

The 2026 election used a new map of 127 ridings, and the site found no official recast of the 2022 results onto it, so it made one: each polling section’s 2022 votes go to the 2026 riding that holds it (sections cut by a new boundary, 2% of election-day votes, are divided by area), and each 2022 riding’s advance and other votes go where its election-day votes went. Every 2022 vote is counted once. These notional results are estimates, not results.

The projection moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since 2022, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to its 2022 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Every party ran in all 127 ridings. It is the method of the British Columbia projection; the Ontario projection’s allowances for incumbents made the Quebec tests worse and are not used. Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Montreal, Quebec City and the rest of Quebec) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections.

Full methodology · The 2026 election results