Ontario seat projection, 16 July 2026
As of 16 July 2026, from 44 polls
No Ontario election has been called, and Ontario no longer has a fixed election date, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, with allowances for members running again and for open seats, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 29 September 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 16 July 2026.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the PCs win a median of 61 seats (90% range 36–78) and a majority in 46%; the Liberals 30 seats (90% range 15–53) and a majority in 2%; the NDP 29 seats (90% range 24–36); the Greens 3 seats (90% range 1–3); independents and others 1 seat (90% range 1–2). No party wins a majority in 52%.
Progressive Conservative majority
46%
Most seats in 88% of simulations
Liberal majority
2%
Most seats in 11% of simulations
No majority
52%
20 ridings with no party above 60%
63 for a majority
Progressive Conservative
61 seats (36–78) · majority 46%
61 seats (36–78) · majority 46%
Liberal
30 seats (15–53) · majority 2%
30 seats (15–53) · majority 2%
NDP
29 seats (24–36)
29 seats (24–36)
Green
3 seats (1–3)
3 seats (1–3)
Others
1 seat (1–2)
1 seat (1–2)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 63 of 124 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
63 for a majority
Progressive Conservative
Median 61, 90%: 36–78
Majority in 46%
Most frequent: 64 (3.8%)
Liberal
Median 30, 90%: 15–53
Majority in 2%
Most frequent: 30 (3.9%)
NDP
Median 29, 90%: 24–36
Most frequent: 28 (15.3%)
Green
Median 3, 90%: 1–3
Most frequent: 3 (49.0%)
Others
Median 1, 90%: 1–2
Most frequent: 1 (81.3%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 61 | 36 to 78 | 64 seats, 3.8% of simulations | 46% |
| Liberal | 30 | 15 to 53 | 30 seats, 3.9% of simulations | 2% |
| NDP | 29 | 24 to 36 | 28 seats, 15.3% of simulations | <1% |
| Green | 3 | 1 to 3 | 3 seats, 49.0% of simulations | 0% |
| Others | 1 | 1 to 2 | 1 seats, 81.3% of simulations | 0% |
What changed
New poll
- EKOS, fieldwork to 16 Jul 2026, 1,248 respondentsProgressive Conservative 32 · NDP 28 · Liberal 26 · Green 5
Change since 25 Jun 2026
- Median seats: Progressive Conservative −1, Liberal −1, NDP +2, Green +1, Other 0.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Progressive Conservative −1, Liberal −1; no majority +2.
- Projected leader changed in 2 ridings: Mississauga Centre (Liberal to Progressive Conservative); Parry Sound—Muskoka (Progressive Conservative to Green).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Progressive Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 8 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| Likely 80–95% | 28 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Leans 60–80% | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Toss-up <60% | 20 | ||||
Ontario
Greater Toronto and Hamilton
Toronto
Ottawa
Seats changing hands
Won in 2025Projected
PCProgressive Conservative80
LibLiberal14
NDPNDP27
GrnGreen2
OthOthers1
PCProgressive Conservative57
LibLiberal16
NDPNDP28
GrnGreen2
OthOthers1
Toss-upToss-up20
| Party | 2025 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCProgressive Conservative | 80 | 57 | – | 3 | 20 |
| LibLiberal | 14 | 16 | 2 | – | – |
| NDPNDP | 27 | 28 | 1 | – | – |
| GrnGreen | 2 | 2 | – | – | – |
| OthOthers | 1 | 1 | – | – | – |
| Toss-up | 20 | ||||
The path to a majority
Progressive Conservative63rd-best riding: Hamilton Mountain, 57% · chance of a majority 46%
Liberal63rd-best riding: Toronto Centre, 12% · chance of a majority 2%
All 124 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AjaxGTA (905) · 2025: Lib 45%Lib 53 (38–67) · PC 30 (16–44) | Liberal 45% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal52.5 (38–67)Progressive Conservative29.7 (16–44)NDP10.3 (1–22) |
| Algoma—ManitoulinNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 41.3%PC 45 (29–60) · NDP 32 (18–47) | Progressive Conservative 41.3% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Progressive Conservative44.5 (29–60)NDP31.9 (18–47)Liberal14.1 (3–27) |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 57.2%PC 50 (34–64) · Lib 33 (18–48) | Progressive Conservative 57.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 86% | Likely | Progressive Conservative49.6 (34–64)Liberal32.9 (18–48)NDP10.0 (0–22) |
| Barrie—InnisfilCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 54.1%PC 47 (31–63) · Lib 25 (11–40) | Progressive Conservative 54.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Progressive Conservative47.0 (31–63)Liberal25.0 (11–40)NDP17.5 (6–31) |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 49.9%PC 43 (27–58) · Lib 34 (20–49) | Progressive Conservative 49.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 70% | Leans | Progressive Conservative42.8 (27–58)Liberal34.3 (20–49)NDP11.0 (1–24) |
| Bay of QuinteEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 44.1%PC 38 (23–53) · Lib 30 (16–45) | Progressive Conservative 44.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 65% | Leans | Progressive Conservative37.8 (23–53)Liberal30.0 (16–45)NDP22.6 (10–36) |
| Beaches—East YorkToronto · 2025: Lib 51.2%Lib 54 (39–69) · NDP 26 (13–40) | Liberal 51.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal54.3 (39–69)NDP26.1 (13–40)Progressive Conservative11.5 (1–25) |
| Brampton CentreGTA (905) · 2025: PC 51.9%PC 45 (29–59) · Lib 33 (19–47) | Progressive Conservative 51.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 78% | Leans | Progressive Conservative44.8 (29–59)Liberal32.8 (19–47)NDP13.0 (3–25) |
| Brampton EastGTA (905) · 2025: PC 51.8%PC 47 (32–62) · Lib 30 (16–45) | Progressive Conservative 51.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 86% | Likely | Progressive Conservative47.1 (32–62)Liberal30.2 (16–45)NDP15.7 (5–28) |
| Brampton NorthGTA (905) · 2025: PC 57.5%PC 50 (35–65) · Lib 29 (16–44) | Progressive Conservative 57.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Progressive Conservative49.9 (35–65)Liberal29.2 (16–44)NDP12.6 (2–25) |
| Brampton SouthGTA (905) · 2025: PC 52.5%PC 45 (30–60) · Lib 31 (17–46) | Progressive Conservative 52.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 82% | Likely | Progressive Conservative45.4 (30–60)Liberal31.4 (17–46)NDP12.6 (2–25) |
| Brampton WestGTA (905) · 2025: PC 56.6%PC 49 (34–64) · Lib 32 (18–46) | Progressive Conservative 56.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative49.4 (34–64)Liberal31.7 (18–46)NDP10.4 (1–22) |
| Brantford—BrantSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 47.2%PC 41 (26–55) · NDP 27 (14–42) | Progressive Conservative 47.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Progressive Conservative40.6 (26–55)NDP27.2 (14–42)Liberal19.1 (7–33) |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 44.1%PC 42 (27–57) · Lib 26 (14–40) | Progressive Conservative 44.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Progressive Conservative41.8 (27–57)Liberal26.1 (14–40)NDP11.4 (1–24)Green11.1 (1–20) |
| BurlingtonHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 43.1%Lib 41 (27–56) · PC 37 (22–52) | Progressive Conservative 43.1% | LibLiberalgain from PCLeans | 62% | Leans | Liberal41.2 (27–56)Progressive Conservative36.6 (22–52)NDP12.1 (1–26) |
| CambridgeSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 43.7%PC 37 (22–52) · Lib 33 (19–47) | Progressive Conservative 43.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 60% | Leans | Progressive Conservative37.1 (22–52)Liberal33.0 (19–47)NDP15.6 (4–29) |
| CarletonEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 49.6%PC 46 (31–62) · Lib 35 (20–50) | Progressive Conservative 49.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 77% | Leans | Progressive Conservative46.4 (31–62)Liberal34.8 (20–50)NDP10.6 (1–23) |
| Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 52%PC 45 (30–60) · NDP 21 (9–35) | Progressive Conservative 52% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 92% | Likely | Progressive Conservative44.7 (30–60)NDP21.2 (9–35)Liberal17.2 (6–31)Other12.7 (3–22) |
| DavenportToronto · 2025: NDP 57.1%NDP 64 (49–77) · Lib 19 (7–33) | NDP 57.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP63.7 (49–77)Liberal19.0 (7–33) |
| Don Valley EastToronto · 2025: Lib 56.6%Lib 60 (45–74) · PC 21 (8–35) | Liberal 56.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal59.6 (45–74)Progressive Conservative21.0 (8–35)NDP11.5 (1–24) |
| Don Valley NorthToronto · 2025: Lib 43.8%Lib 56 (41–70) · PC 28 (14–41) | Liberal 43.8% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal55.7 (41–70)Progressive Conservative27.5 (14–41) |
| Don Valley WestToronto · 2025: Lib 57.2%Lib 61 (46–75) · PC 23 (9–36) | Liberal 57.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal60.6 (46–75)Progressive Conservative22.7 (9–36) |
| Dufferin—CaledonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 52.5%PC 46 (31–61) · Lib 25 (11–39) | Progressive Conservative 52.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Progressive Conservative45.9 (31–61)Liberal24.5 (11–39)Green12.2 (2–21)NDP10.8 (1–23) |
| DurhamGTA (905) · 2025: PC 50.5%PC 44 (28–59) · Lib 28 (15–43) | Progressive Conservative 50.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Progressive Conservative43.7 (28–59)Liberal28.2 (15–43)NDP18.4 (7–31) |
| Eglinton—LawrenceToronto · 2025: PC 48.5%PC 45 (30–59) · Lib 43 (29–57) | Progressive Conservative 48.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative45.1 (30–59)Liberal43.0 (29–57) |
| Elgin—Middlesex—LondonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.8%PC 49 (33–63) · Lib 24 (11–37) | Progressive Conservative 55.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative48.5 (33–63)Liberal23.5 (11–37)NDP13.5 (2–27) |
| EssexSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.6%PC 48 (33–64) · NDP 26 (13–40) | Progressive Conservative 55.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 92% | Likely | Progressive Conservative48.4 (33–64)NDP25.9 (13–40)Liberal14.7 (3–28) |
| Etobicoke CentreToronto · 2025: PC 48.1%PC 41 (26–55) · Lib 40 (26–55) | Progressive Conservative 48.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative41.1 (26–55)Liberal40.2 (26–55) |
| Etobicoke NorthToronto · 2025: PC 59.4%PC 52 (36–66) · Lib 27 (14–42) | Progressive Conservative 59.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 93% | Likely | Progressive Conservative51.6 (36–66)Liberal27.4 (14–42)NDP12.4 (1–25) |
| Etobicoke—LakeshoreToronto · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 56 (41–69) · PC 27 (13–41) | Liberal 48.5% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal55.6 (41–69)Progressive Conservative26.5 (13–41)NDP10.3 (0–23) |
| Flamborough—GlanbrookHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 49.4%PC 42 (27–58) · Lib 30 (16–45) | Progressive Conservative 49.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Progressive Conservative42.4 (27–58)Liberal30.1 (16–45)NDP16.8 (5–30) |
| Glengarry—Prescott—RussellEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 51.4%PC 45 (30–59) · Lib 36 (21–50) | Progressive Conservative 51.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 72% | Leans | Progressive Conservative44.5 (30–59)Liberal35.8 (21–50) |
| GuelphSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: Grn 56.9%Grn 60 (36–71) · PC 14 (2–29) | Green 56.9% | GrnGreenSolid | 96% | Solid | Green59.9 (36–71)Progressive Conservative13.7 (2–29)Liberal10.3 (0–24)NDP10.1 (0–25) |
| Haldimand—NorfolkHamilton-Niagara · 2025: Oth 63.7%Bobbi Ann Brady 69 (45–91) · PC 18 (2–37) | Other 63.7% | Bobbi Ann BradySolid | 98% | Solid | Bobbi Ann Brady68.8 (45–91)Progressive Conservative17.9 (2–37) |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 52%PC 45 (30–61) · Lib 22 (9–37) | Progressive Conservative 52% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Progressive Conservative45.3 (30–61)Liberal21.9 (9–37)NDP17.9 (6–31) |
| Hamilton CentreHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 38.4%NDP 56 (41–70) · Lib 22 (9–35) | NDP 38.4% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP56.1 (41–70)Liberal21.7 (9–35)Progressive Conservative11.5 (0–25) |
| Hamilton East—Stoney CreekHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 42.1%PC 40 (25–55) · Lib 28 (15–42) | Progressive Conservative 42.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 77% | Leans | Progressive Conservative40.0 (25–55)Liberal28.1 (15–42)NDP20.1 (8–34) |
| Hamilton MountainHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 36.2%PC 35 (21–50) · NDP 28 (14–42) | Progressive Conservative 36.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative35.0 (21–50)NDP27.7 (14–42)Liberal27.6 (14–42) |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 38.9%NDP 47 (33–62) · PC 22 (9–37) | NDP 38.9% | NDPNDPLikely | 92% | Likely | NDP47.2 (33–62)Progressive Conservative22.1 (9–37)Liberal21.3 (8–36) |
| Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 48.6%PC 42 (26–57) · Lib 29 (15–43) | Progressive Conservative 48.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Progressive Conservative41.7 (26–57)Liberal28.5 (15–43)NDP15.7 (4–29) |
| Humber River—Black CreekToronto · 2025: NDP 35.3%NDP 44 (29–58) · Lib 26 (12–40) | NDP 35.3% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP43.9 (29–58)Liberal25.9 (12–40)Progressive Conservative23.3 (10–37) |
| Huron—BruceSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 50%PC 43 (28–58) · Lib 27 (14–41) | Progressive Conservative 50% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Progressive Conservative43.0 (28–58)Liberal26.8 (14–41)NDP16.1 (4–29) |
| Kanata—CarletonEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 52 (36–66) · PC 29 (15–44) | Liberal 47.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 92% | Likely | Liberal51.5 (36–66)Progressive Conservative28.6 (15–44)NDP11.3 (1–24) |
| Kenora—Rainy RiverNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 59.9%PC 52 (36–68) · NDP 23 (9–37) | Progressive Conservative 59.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 95% | Solid | Progressive Conservative52.3 (36–68)NDP23.1 (9–37)Liberal16.2 (5–30) |
| KiiwetinoongNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 62.2%NDP 69 (54–82) · PC 15 (3–30) | NDP 62.2% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP69.1 (54–82)Progressive Conservative15.3 (3–30) |
| Kingston and the IslandsEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 61.6%Lib 64 (49–78) · NDP 16 (5–29) | Liberal 61.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal63.9 (49–78)NDP15.9 (5–29)Progressive Conservative12.1 (1–25) |
| King—VaughanGTA (905) · 2025: PC 64.2%PC 56 (41–71) · Lib 27 (13–42) | Progressive Conservative 64.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Progressive Conservative56.2 (41–71)Liberal27.1 (13–42) |
| Kitchener CentreSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: Grn 51.4%Grn 55 (32–66) · PC 14 (2–30) | Green 51.4% | GrnGreenLikely | 95% | Likely | Green54.7 (32–66)Progressive Conservative14.3 (2–30)Liberal13.2 (2–28)NDP11.1 (0–25) |
| Kitchener South—HespelerSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 45.4%PC 39 (24–54) · Lib 25 (12–39) | Progressive Conservative 45.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 78% | Leans | Progressive Conservative38.9 (24–54)Liberal24.6 (12–39)NDP21.9 (9–36) |
| Kitchener—ConestogaSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 41.5%PC 35 (21–50) · Lib 28 (15–42) | Progressive Conservative 41.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 63% | Leans | Progressive Conservative35.2 (21–50)Liberal28.1 (15–42)NDP22.4 (10–36) |
| Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 53.6%PC 46 (31–61) · Lib 25 (12–40) | Progressive Conservative 53.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Progressive Conservative46.3 (31–61)Liberal25.1 (12–40)NDP16.6 (4–30) |
| Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 49.1%PC 43 (27–58) · Lib 32 (17–47) | Progressive Conservative 49.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 75% | Leans | Progressive Conservative42.5 (27–58)Liberal31.8 (17–47)NDP14.8 (3–28) |
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.1%PC 48 (32–63) · Lib 26 (12–41) | Progressive Conservative 55.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Progressive Conservative47.9 (32–63)Liberal26.3 (12–41)NDP14.2 (3–27) |
| London North CentreSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 46.7%NDP 55 (40–69) · PC 22 (8–36) | NDP 46.7% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP54.7 (40–69)Progressive Conservative21.7 (8–36)Liberal14.3 (3–28) |
| London WestSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 49.2%NDP 57 (42–71) · PC 24 (10–38) | NDP 49.2% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP57.1 (42–71)Progressive Conservative23.8 (10–38) |
| London—FanshaweSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 47.6%NDP 56 (41–70) · PC 23 (10–38) | NDP 47.6% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP55.9 (41–70)Progressive Conservative23.2 (10–38)Liberal11.3 (1–24) |
| Markham—StouffvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 50.6%PC 44 (29–58) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Progressive Conservative 50.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative43.5 (29–58)Liberal40.0 (25–55) |
| Markham—ThornhillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 53.6%PC 46 (31–61) · Lib 38 (24–53) | Progressive Conservative 53.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 70% | Leans | Progressive Conservative46.2 (31–61)Liberal38.2 (24–53) |
| Markham—UnionvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 61.2%PC 53 (38–68) · Lib 30 (16–44) | Progressive Conservative 61.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 93% | Likely | Progressive Conservative53.3 (38–68)Liberal29.9 (16–44) |
| MiltonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.4%PC 41 (26–55) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Progressive Conservative 47.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative40.5 (26–55)Liberal39.8 (25–55)NDP10.0 (0–22) |
| Mississauga CentreGTA (905) · 2025: PC 46.8%PC 40 (26–55) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Progressive Conservative 46.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative40.2 (26–55)Liberal39.8 (25–55)NDP10.8 (1–23) |
| Mississauga East—CooksvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 46.4%PC 44 (29–59) · Lib 39 (25–53) | Progressive Conservative 46.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 62% | Leans | Progressive Conservative44.0 (29–59)Liberal39.2 (25–53) |
| Mississauga—Erin MillsGTA (905) · 2025: PC 44.3%Lib 43 (29–58) · PC 38 (24–53) | Progressive Conservative 44.3% | LibLiberalgain from PCLeans | 63% | Leans | Liberal43.1 (29–58)Progressive Conservative38.1 (24–53) |
| Mississauga—LakeshoreGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.5%Lib 42 (27–57) · PC 41 (26–55) | Progressive Conservative 47.5% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Liberal42.1 (27–57)Progressive Conservative40.7 (26–55) |
| Mississauga—MaltonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 50.9%PC 44 (29–59) · Lib 37 (23–52) | Progressive Conservative 50.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 66% | Leans | Progressive Conservative43.8 (29–59)Liberal37.4 (23–52)NDP11.0 (1–23) |
| Mississauga—StreetsvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.7%Lib 42 (27–56) · PC 41 (26–56) | Progressive Conservative 47.7% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Liberal41.6 (27–56)Progressive Conservative40.8 (26–56) |
| Mushkegowuk—James BayNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 45.4%NDP 54 (38–68) · PC 33 (18–48) | NDP 45.4% | NDPNDPLikely | 89% | Likely | NDP53.6 (38–68)Progressive Conservative33.2 (18–48) |
| NepeanEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 56 (41–70) · PC 25 (11–39) | Liberal 48.5% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal55.8 (41–70)Progressive Conservative24.9 (11–39)NDP11.9 (2–24) |
| Newmarket—AuroraGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.6%PC 41 (26–56) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Progressive Conservative 47.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative40.8 (26–56)Liberal40.0 (25–55)NDP10.6 (1–23) |
| Niagara CentreHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 42.2%NDP 51 (36–65) · PC 26 (12–41) | NDP 42.2% | NDPNDPLikely | 94% | Likely | NDP50.6 (36–65)Progressive Conservative26.0 (12–41)Liberal13.5 (2–27) |
| Niagara FallsHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 55%NDP 63 (48–76) · PC 24 (10–38) | NDP 55% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP62.5 (48–76)Progressive Conservative23.5 (10–38) |
| Niagara WestHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 51.1%PC 44 (29–59) · Lib 24 (10–38) | Progressive Conservative 51.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative44.1 (29–59)Liberal23.6 (10–38)NDP20.4 (8–34) |
| Nickel BeltNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 48.4%NDP 56 (41–71) · PC 24 (10–39) | NDP 48.4% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP56.2 (41–71)Progressive Conservative24.4 (10–39) |
| NipissingNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 54.8%PC 48 (32–64) · NDP 29 (15–44) | Progressive Conservative 54.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative47.8 (32–64)NDP29.2 (15–44)Liberal11.5 (1–24) |
| Northumberland—Peterborough SouthCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 52.1%PC 45 (29–60) · Lib 31 (17–46) | Progressive Conservative 52.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 80% | Likely | Progressive Conservative44.9 (29–60)Liberal31.2 (17–46)NDP13.6 (3–27) |
| OakvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 48%Lib 43 (28–57) · PC 41 (26–56) | Progressive Conservative 48% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | Liberal42.5 (28–57)Progressive Conservative41.0 (26–56) |
| Oakville North—BurlingtonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 49.7%PC 43 (28–58) · Lib 39 (25–54) | Progressive Conservative 49.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative42.7 (28–58)Liberal39.3 (25–54) |
| OrléansEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 58 (42–72) · PC 24 (10–39) | Liberal 54.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 97% | Solid | Liberal57.6 (42–72)Progressive Conservative23.9 (10–39)NDP10.1 (0–23) |
| OshawaGTA (905) · 2025: NDP 45.9%NDP 54 (40–68) · PC 30 (16–45) | NDP 45.9% | NDPNDPLikely | 94% | Likely | NDP54.3 (40–68)Progressive Conservative30.0 (16–45) |
| Ottawa CentreEastern Ontario · 2025: NDP 55.7%NDP 65 (51–78) · Lib 20 (8–34) | NDP 55.7% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP65.1 (51–78)Liberal20.0 (8–34) |
| Ottawa SouthEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 56 (41–71) · NDP 21 (9–35) | Liberal 53.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal56.1 (41–71)NDP21.2 (9–35)Progressive Conservative14.3 (2–28) |
| Ottawa West—NepeanEastern Ontario · 2025: NDP 49.3%NDP 57 (42–71) · PC 18 (5–32) | NDP 49.3% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP57.0 (42–71)Progressive Conservative18.1 (5–32)Liberal16.4 (4–31) |
| Ottawa—VanierEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 55 (40–69) · NDP 22 (9–35) | Liberal 51.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal54.5 (40–69)NDP21.6 (9–35)Progressive Conservative12.5 (1–26) |
| OxfordSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.3%PC 48 (32–63) · Lib 22 (9–36) | Progressive Conservative 55.3% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative48.2 (32–63)Liberal22.0 (9–36)NDP15.2 (4–29) |
| Parkdale—High ParkToronto · 2025: NDP 45.4%NDP 56 (41–70) · Lib 27 (14–41) | NDP 45.4% | NDPNDPSolid | 96% | Solid | NDP55.9 (41–70)Liberal26.9 (14–41) |
| Parry Sound—MuskokaNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 46.8%PC 40 (25–58) · Grn 40 (20–52) | Progressive Conservative 46.8% | GrnGreengain from PCToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative40.2 (25–58)Green40.2 (20–52) |
| Perth—WellingtonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 47.4%PC 41 (25–56) · Lib 27 (14–41) | Progressive Conservative 47.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 81% | Likely | Progressive Conservative40.6 (25–56)Liberal26.7 (14–41)NDP16.8 (5–31) |
| Peterborough—KawarthaCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 40.7%Lib 35 (21–50) · PC 34 (19–50) | Progressive Conservative 40.7% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Liberal35.1 (21–50)Progressive Conservative34.1 (19–50)NDP20.8 (8–34) |
| Pickering—UxbridgeGTA (905) · 2025: PC 48.1%PC 41 (26–56) · Lib 38 (24–53) | Progressive Conservative 48.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative41.1 (26–56)Liberal38.2 (24–53)NDP11.7 (2–23) |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokeEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 54.8%PC 51 (36–66) · Lib 20 (7–34) | Progressive Conservative 54.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Progressive Conservative51.1 (36–66)Liberal19.7 (7–34)NDP17.7 (6–31) |
| Richmond HillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 55.4%PC 48 (33–63) · Lib 33 (19–48) | Progressive Conservative 55.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 84% | Likely | Progressive Conservative48.1 (33–63)Liberal33.1 (19–48)NDP10.2 (0–22) |
| Sarnia—LambtonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 51.3%PC 45 (29–60) · NDP 24 (11–38) | Progressive Conservative 51.3% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Progressive Conservative45.1 (29–60)NDP24.1 (11–38)Liberal17.5 (6–31) |
| Sault Ste. MarieNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 43.1%NDP 46 (25–62) · Chris Scott 23 (9–49) | Progressive Conservative 43.1% | NDPNDPgain from PCLikely | 82% | Likely | NDP45.8 (25–62)Chris Scott23.2 (9–49)Progressive Conservative17.4 (4–32) |
| Scarborough CentreToronto · 2025: PC 44%Lib 41 (26–56) · PC 37 (23–52) | Progressive Conservative 44% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Liberal40.7 (26–56)Progressive Conservative37.2 (23–52)NDP12.8 (2–26) |
| Scarborough NorthToronto · 2025: PC 53%PC 46 (31–60) · Lib 33 (19–48) | Progressive Conservative 53% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Progressive Conservative45.6 (31–60)Liberal33.3 (19–48)NDP14.6 (3–28) |
| Scarborough SouthwestToronto · 2025: NDP 42.9%NDP 54 (40–68) · Lib 20 (8–34) | NDP 42.9% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP54.3 (40–68)Liberal20.0 (8–34)Progressive Conservative18.5 (6–32) |
| Scarborough—AgincourtToronto · 2025: PC 49.4%PC 42 (27–57) · Lib 40 (26–55) | Progressive Conservative 49.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative42.2 (27–57)Liberal40.4 (26–55) |
| Scarborough—GuildwoodToronto · 2025: Lib 51%Lib 55 (40–69) · PC 27 (13–41) | Liberal 51% | LibLiberalSolid | 96% | Solid | Liberal54.9 (40–69)Progressive Conservative26.5 (13–41)NDP10.9 (0–24) |
| Scarborough—Rouge ParkToronto · 2025: PC 49.2%PC 42 (27–57) · Lib 39 (24–53) | Progressive Conservative 49.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative42.0 (27–57)Liberal38.7 (24–53)NDP11.4 (1–24) |
| Simcoe NorthCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 51.4%PC 44 (29–60) · Lib 26 (12–41) | Progressive Conservative 51.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 87% | Likely | Progressive Conservative44.3 (29–60)Liberal26.4 (12–41)NDP14.1 (3–27) |
| Simcoe—GreyCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 53.6%PC 46 (30–62) · Lib 31 (17–46) | Progressive Conservative 53.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Progressive Conservative46.2 (30–62)Liberal31.2 (17–46)NDP10.2 (0–23) |
| Spadina—Fort YorkToronto · 2025: NDP 45%NDP 53 (38–66) · Lib 30 (16–44) | NDP 45% | NDPNDPLikely | 92% | Likely | NDP52.6 (38–66)Liberal29.5 (16–44)Progressive Conservative10.4 (0–23) |
| St. CatharinesHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 42.1%NDP 50 (35–65) · PC 24 (11–38) | NDP 42.1% | NDPNDPLikely | 94% | Likely | NDP50.4 (35–65)Progressive Conservative24.0 (11–38)Liberal15.9 (4–30) |
| Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 61.6%PC 54 (39–69) · Lib 18 (6–33) | Progressive Conservative 61.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Progressive Conservative54.0 (39–69)Liberal18.3 (6–33)NDP16.8 (5–30) |
| SudburyNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 46.7%NDP 55 (40–69) · PC 27 (13–42) | NDP 46.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 95% | Likely | NDP55.0 (40–69)Progressive Conservative27.3 (13–42) |
| ThornhillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 64%PC 56 (41–71) · Lib 28 (14–42) | Progressive Conservative 64% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Progressive Conservative56.0 (41–71)Liberal27.5 (14–42) |
| Thunder Bay—AtikokanNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 45.7%PC 39 (24–54) · NDP 29 (15–44) | Progressive Conservative 45.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 69% | Leans | Progressive Conservative38.9 (24–54)NDP29.3 (15–44)Liberal23.3 (11–37) |
| Thunder Bay—Superior NorthNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 40.6%NDP 49 (33–64) · PC 23 (9–38) | NDP 40.6% | NDPNDPLikely | 93% | Likely | NDP48.9 (33–64)Progressive Conservative23.0 (9–38)Liberal19.7 (8–33) |
| Timiskaming—CochraneNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 44%NDP 53 (37–67) · PC 27 (12–42) | NDP 44% | NDPNDPLikely | 94% | Likely | NDP52.5 (37–67)Progressive Conservative26.6 (12–42) |
| TimminsNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 68.4%PC 60 (44–75) · NDP 24 (10–39) | Progressive Conservative 68.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative60.3 (44–75)NDP24.1 (10–39) |
| Toronto CentreToronto · 2025: NDP 44.5%NDP 52 (37–65) · Lib 34 (20–48) | NDP 44.5% | NDPNDPLikely | 88% | Likely | NDP51.8 (37–65)Liberal34.0 (20–48) |
| Toronto—DanforthToronto · 2025: NDP 60.4%NDP 67 (52–79) · Lib 20 (7–33) | NDP 60.4% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP66.6 (52–79)Liberal19.6 (7–33) |
| Toronto—St. Paul'sToronto · 2025: Lib 40.9%Lib 49 (34–63) · NDP 32 (18–46) | Liberal 40.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 87% | Likely | Liberal48.5 (34–63)NDP31.8 (18–46)Progressive Conservative13.9 (3–27) |
| University—RosedaleToronto · 2025: NDP 45.5%NDP 53 (38–67) · Lib 29 (15–43) | NDP 45.5% | NDPNDPLikely | 93% | Likely | NDP53.0 (38–67)Liberal28.8 (15–43)Progressive Conservative10.2 (0–23) |
| Vaughan—WoodbridgeGTA (905) · 2025: PC 65.1%PC 57 (42–72) · Lib 26 (12–40) | Progressive Conservative 65.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Progressive Conservative57.3 (42–72)Liberal25.5 (12–40) |
| WaterlooSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 50.2%NDP 58 (43–72) · PC 17 (5–31) | NDP 50.2% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP57.9 (43–72)Progressive Conservative17.0 (5–31)Liberal14.5 (3–28) |
| Wellington—Halton HillsCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 45.7%PC 43 (28–59) · Lib 25 (12–39) | Progressive Conservative 45.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative43.2 (28–59)Liberal24.6 (12–39)Green14.2 (3–24)NDP10.9 (1–23) |
| WhitbyGTA (905) · 2025: PC 48.1%PC 41 (27–56) · Lib 38 (24–53) | Progressive Conservative 48.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative41.2 (27–56)Liberal38.2 (24–53)NDP12.2 (2–24) |
| WillowdaleToronto · 2025: PC 46.3%Lib 43 (28–57) · PC 40 (25–54) | Progressive Conservative 46.3% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Liberal42.9 (28–57)Progressive Conservative39.8 (25–54) |
| Windsor WestSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 52.1%NDP 59 (44–72) · PC 27 (14–41) | NDP 52.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP58.6 (44–72)Progressive Conservative27.1 (14–41) |
| Windsor—TecumsehSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 48.2%PC 42 (26–56) · NDP 34 (21–49) | Progressive Conservative 48.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 69% | Leans | Progressive Conservative41.5 (26–56)NDP34.4 (21–49)Liberal13.3 (2–27) |
| York CentreToronto · 2025: PC 54.1%PC 47 (31–61) · Lib 34 (20–49) | Progressive Conservative 54.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Progressive Conservative46.7 (31–61)Liberal34.2 (20–49) |
| York South—WestonToronto · 2025: PC 35.2%PC 34 (20–49) · Lib 31 (17–45) | Progressive Conservative 35.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 49% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative34.3 (20–49)Liberal31.0 (17–45)NDP27.0 (14–41) |
| York—SimcoeGTA (905) · 2025: PC 59.4%PC 55 (40–69) · Lib 21 (8–36) | Progressive Conservative 59.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative55.2 (40–69)Liberal21.3 (8–36)NDP11.3 (1–23) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 35.6 | 31.5–39.8 | −1.9 |
| Liberal | 29.6 | 25.5–33.7 | −2.4 |
| NDP | 24.0 | 19.7–28.2 | +2.4 |
| Green | 4.9 | 4.6–5.2 | +0.1 |
| Others | 5.9 | +1.8 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 16 Jul 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 25 Jun 2026, in points.
Polls included (44)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul | EKOSNew | 1,248 | ±2.8 | 32 | 26 | 28 | 5 |
| 25 Jun | Abacus Data | 2,182 | ±2.1 | 41 | 32 | 19 | 5 |
| 17 Jun | Abacus Data | 2,182 | ±2.1 | 41 | 32 | 19 | 5 |
| 16 Jun | EKOS | 1,248 | ±2.8 | 32 | 26 | 28 | 5 |
| 15 Jun | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 35 | 38 | 22 | 4 |
| 20 May | Abacus Data | 1,017 | ±3.1 | 41 | 31 | 17 | 5 |
| 16 May | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 37 | 37 | 20 | 4 |
| 11 May | Leger | 1,003 | ±3.1 | 39 | 34 | 17 | 6 |
| 7 May | Mainstreet Research | 910 | ±3.2 | 35 | 31 | 24 | 6 |
| 26 Apr | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 36 | 38 | 20 | 4 |
34 earlier polls
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr | Pallas Data | 1,007 | ±3.1 | 37 | 32 | 24 | 6 |
| 21 Apr | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 37 | 36 | 17 | 5 |
| 8 Apr | Pallas Data | 1,084 | ±3.0 | 40 | 31 | 22 | 6 |
| 6 Apr | Abacus Data | 2,185 | ±2.1 | 39 | 31 | 21 | 5 |
| 29 Mar | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 39 | 36 | 18 | 5 |
| 11 Mar | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 44 | 32 | 16 | 5 |
| 11 Mar | Ipsos | 801 | ±4.2 | 42 | 35 | 18 | 3 |
| 22 Feb | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 40 | 36 | 17 | 5 |
| 10 Feb | Abacus Data | 1,001 | ±3.1 | 44 | 30 | 16 | 6 |
| 24 Jan | Pallas Data | 1,015 | ±3.1 | 43 | 30 | 18 | 5 |
| 21 Jan | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 42 | 35 | 17 | 3 |
| 13 Jan | Abacus Data | 1,006 | ±3.1 | 48 | 22 | 19 | 6 |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 44 | 35 | 16 | 3 |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 723 | ±3.0 | 41 | 28 | 23 | 4 |
| 15 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,077 | ±3.0 | 45 | 28 | 18 | 6 |
| 7 Nov 2025 | North Poll | 742 | – | 46 | 29 | 17 | 4 |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 51 | 23 | 19 | 3 |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Leger | 1,052 | ±3.1 | 44 | 32 | 13 | 7 |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 51 | 25 | 15 | 5 |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 800 | ±3.4 | 47 | 33 | 15 | 3 |
| 13 Oct 2025 | Relay Strategies | 1,268 | – | 44 | 29 | 17 | 6 |
| 18 Sep 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 958 | ±3.2 | 48 | 29 | 14 | 3 |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,021 | ±3.1 | 52 | 24 | 12 | 6 |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 935 | ±3.0 | 45 | 25 | 22 | 4 |
| 4 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 45 | 26 | 17 | 7 |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,037 | ±3.0 | 53 | 27 | 12 | 5 |
| 14 Aug 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 800 | ±3.4 | 44 | 35 | 15 | 3 |
| 15 Jul 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 50 | 28 | 13 | 6 |
| 29 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,080 | ±3.0 | 43 | 29 | 21 | 6 |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 923 | ±3.2 | 41 | 32 | 17 | 3 |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 49 | 28 | 14 | 5 |
| 25 May 2025 | Leger | 1,025 | ±3.1 | 45 | 32 | 15 | 5 |
| 9 May 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 46 | 36 | 13 | 2 |
| 26 Mar 2025 | Campaign Research | 1,672 | ±2.2 | 46 | 24 | 18 | 8 |
Ontario polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s Ontario polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2025 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 63 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 46 projections, to 19 September 2026, were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | OthOther | PCProgressive Conservative maj. | LibLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 64 | 29 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 54% | 2% | 44% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 64 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 56% | 3% | 41% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies | 64 | 30 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 54% | 3% | 43% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 58 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 36% | 3% | 61% |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 56 | 34 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 31% | 4% | 65% |
| 16 Jul 2026 (this page) | EKOS | 61 | 30 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 46% | 2% | 52% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | Abacus Data | 62 | 31 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 47% | 3% | 50% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Abacus Data | 61 | 32 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 44% | 3% | 53% |
39 earlier projections
| Projection | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | OthOther | PCProgressive Conservative maj. | LibLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026 | EKOS | 57 | 34 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 34% | 4% | 62% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 56 | 38 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 32% | 6% | 62% |
| 20 May 2026 | Abacus Data | 61 | 33 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 45% | 4% | 51% |
| 16 May 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 58 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 37% | 5% | 58% |
| 11 May 2026 | Leger | 59 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 39% | 4% | 57% |
| 7 May 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 58 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 37% | 4% | 59% |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 59 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 40% | 4% | 56% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 62 | 32 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 49% | 3% | 47% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Abacus Data | 63 | 31 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 52% | 3% | 44% |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 65 | 29 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 60% | 2% | 38% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Abacus Data | 65 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 58% | 3% | 39% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 65 | 31 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 59% | 3% | 37% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Abacus Data, Ipsos | 69 | 28 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 71% | 2% | 27% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 70 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 75% | 2% | 23% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Abacus Data | 75 | 22 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Pallas Data | 75 | 21 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 88% | 1% | 11% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 76 | 20 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 90% | 1% | 9% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Abacus Data | 81 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 96% | <1% | 3% |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 75 | 21 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 87% | 1% | 12% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 77 | 18 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 92% | 1% | 7% |
| 15 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 80 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | North Poll | 81 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Abacus Data | 81 | 17 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Leger | 80 | 19 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 94% | 1% | 6% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies | 81 | 18 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 13 Oct 2025 | Relay Strategies | 80 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 18 Sep 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 83 | 16 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 96% | <1% | 3% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Abacus Data | 83 | 16 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 97% | <1% | 3% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 80 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 81 | 18 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Abacus Data | 82 | 19 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 75 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 85% | 2% | 14% |
| 15 Jul 2025 | Abacus Data | 77 | 20 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 91% | 1% | 8% |
| 29 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 74 | 22 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 85% | 1% | 14% |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 75 | 23 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Abacus Data | 79 | 21 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 92% | 1% | 7% |
| 25 May 2025 | Leger | 75 | 26 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 83% | 2% | 15% |
| 9 May 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 75 | 26 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 83% | 2% | 14% |
| 26 Mar 2025 | Campaign Research | 81 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 96% | <1% | 3% |
How the projection works
The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 124 ridings. It moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since that election, the same number of points everywhere (a uniform swing). Before the ridings are adjusted to reproduce the average, a party gains 6 points where its member runs again, and 8 more where that member was first elected in 2025 or at a by-election since, whose personal vote the 2025 result does not yet hold; it loses 2 where its member is not running. Until retirements are announced, every member is presumed to run again. Two independents, Bobbi Ann Brady and Chris Scott, keep part of their own 2025 vote.
These rules and their sizes come from ten provincial elections from 2020 to 2025. With each election scored using sizes fitted on the other nine, the projected leader won 88.7% of ridings in 2022 and 90.3% in 2025; keeping every riding with the party that won it last time won 88.7% and 92.7%. The province-wide swing of the other projections did worse in both (82.3% and 82.3%).
Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors and riding errors of the size seen in those elections. Candidates’ personal appeal beyond incumbency, local campaigns and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.