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Stephen Taylor

Ontario seat projection, 4 September 2025

As of 4 September 2025, from 10 polls

No Ontario election has been called, and Ontario no longer has a fixed election date, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, with allowances for members running again and for open seats, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 29 September 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 4 September 2025.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the PCs win a median of 81 seats (90% range 62–97) and a majority in 95%; the NDP 21 seats (90% range 8–27); the Liberals 18 seats (90% range 10–36) and a majority in 1%; the Greens 2 seats (90% range 1–3); independents and others 1 seat (90% range 1–2). No party wins a majority in 4%.

  • Progressive Conservative majority

    95%

    Most seats in 98% of simulations

  • No majority

    4%

    9 ridings with no party above 60%

Projected seats by party, median and 90% range, out of 124; 63 seats are a majority.
63 for a majority
Progressive Conservative

81 seats (62–97) · majority 95%

Liberal

18 seats (10–36) · majority 1%

NDP

21 seats (8–27)

Green

2 seats (1–3)

Others

1 seat (1–2)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 63 of 124 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.

Seat distributions

Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
63 for a majority

Progressive Conservative

Median 81, 90%: 62–97

Majority in 95%

Most frequent: 82 (5.2%)

Liberal

Median 18, 90%: 10–36

Majority in 1%

Most frequent: 16 (7.5%)

NDP

Median 21, 90%: 8–27

Most frequent: 23 (8.8%)

Green

Median 2, 90%: 1–3

Most frequent: 2 (70.6%)

Others

Median 1, 90%: 1–2

Most frequent: 1 (78.8%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
PartyMedian seats90% rangeMost frequentChance of a majority
Progressive Conservative8162 to 9782 seats, 5.2% of simulations95%
Liberal1810 to 3616 seats, 7.5% of simulations1%
NDP218 to 2723 seats, 8.8% of simulations0%
Green21 to 32 seats, 70.6% of simulations0%
Others11 to 21 seats, 78.8% of simulations0%
The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 63 of 124 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.

What changed

New poll

  • Pallas Data, fieldwork to 4 Sep 2025, 1,026 respondentsProgressive Conservative 45 · Liberal 26 · NDP 17 · Green 7

Change since 19 Aug 2025

  • Median seats: Progressive Conservative −1, Liberal −1, NDP +2, Green 0, Other 0.
  • Chance of a majority, in points: Progressive Conservative 0; no majority 0.
  • Projected leader changed in 6 ridings: Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas (Progressive Conservative to NDP); Niagara Centre (Progressive Conservative to NDP); Oshawa (Progressive Conservative to NDP); St. Catharines (Progressive Conservative to NDP); Thunder Bay—Superior North (Progressive Conservative to NDP); Timiskaming—Cochrane (Progressive Conservative to NDP).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
Progressive ConservativeLiberalNDPGreenOther
Solid 95%+374211
Likely 80–95%338810
Leans 60–80%92900
Toss-up <60%9

Ontario

Greater Toronto and Hamilton

Toronto

Ottawa

Seats changing hands

Won in 2025Projected
PC80
Lib14
NDP27
Grn2
Oth1
PC79
Lib14
NDP19
Grn2
Oth1
Toss-up9
Ridings by party: won in 2025, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party2025ProjectedGainsLossesToss-ups
PC8079––1
Lib1414–––
NDP2719––8
Grn22–––
Oth11–––
Toss-up 9 
Each riding from the party that won it at the 2025 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2025 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Progressive Conservative63rd-best riding: Whitby, 85% · chance of a majority 95%

Liberal63rd-best riding: Durham, 4% · chance of a majority 1%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 63 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 63rd-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 124 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.

All 124 ridings: 2025 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
Ajax2025: Lib 45%Lib 51 (37–65) · PC 40 (26–55)Liberal 45%LibLeans76%LeansLiberal51.0 (37–65)Progressive Conservative40.2 (26–55)
Algoma—Manitoulin2025: PC 41.3%PC 57 (40–72) · NDP 22 (9–36)Progressive Conservative 41.3%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative56.5 (40–72)NDP22.3 (9–36)Liberal13.1 (3–26)
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill2025: PC 57.2%PC 61 (46–75) · Lib 31 (17–45)Progressive Conservative 57.2%PCSolid96%SolidProgressive Conservative61.0 (46–75)Liberal31.2 (17–45)
Barrie—Innisfil2025: PC 54.1%PC 59 (43–74) · Lib 24 (10–38)Progressive Conservative 54.1%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative59.2 (43–74)Liberal23.7 (10–38)
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte2025: PC 49.9%PC 54 (38–69) · Lib 33 (18–47)Progressive Conservative 49.9%PCLikely90%LikelyProgressive Conservative54.4 (38–69)Liberal32.7 (18–47)
Bay of Quinte2025: PC 44.1%PC 50 (34–65) · Lib 29 (15–44)Progressive Conservative 44.1%PCLikely90%LikelyProgressive Conservative50.0 (34–65)Liberal28.8 (15–44)NDP13.0 (3–25)
Beaches—East York2025: Lib 51.2%Lib 54 (39–69) · PC 23 (9–38)Liberal 51.2%LibSolid96%SolidLiberal53.9 (39–69)Progressive Conservative22.9 (9–38)NDP16.6 (5–29)
Brampton Centre2025: PC 51.9%PC 57 (41–71) · Lib 31 (18–45)Progressive Conservative 51.9%PCLikely94%LikelyProgressive Conservative56.6 (41–71)Liberal31.3 (18–45)
Brampton East2025: PC 51.8%PC 59 (44–74) · Lib 29 (15–43)Progressive Conservative 51.8%PCSolid96%SolidProgressive Conservative59.0 (44–74)Liberal28.8 (15–43)
Brampton North2025: PC 57.5%PC 62 (47–76) · Lib 28 (14–41)Progressive Conservative 57.5%PCSolid97%SolidProgressive Conservative61.7 (47–76)Liberal27.8 (14–41)
Brampton South2025: PC 52.5%PC 57 (42–72) · Lib 30 (16–44)Progressive Conservative 52.5%PCLikely95%LikelyProgressive Conservative57.3 (42–72)Liberal29.9 (16–44)
Brampton West2025: PC 56.6%PC 61 (46–75) · Lib 30 (16–44)Progressive Conservative 56.6%PCSolid97%SolidProgressive Conservative61.0 (46–75)Liberal30.0 (16–44)
Brantford—Brant2025: PC 47.2%PC 53 (38–69) · Lib 18 (6–32)Progressive Conservative 47.2%PCSolid97%SolidProgressive Conservative53.1 (38–69)Liberal18.1 (6–32)NDP17.4 (6–30)
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound2025: PC 44.1%PC 53 (37–67) · Lib 25 (12–39)Progressive Conservative 44.1%PCSolid96%SolidProgressive Conservative52.7 (37–67)Liberal24.7 (12–39)Green11.6 (2–21)
Burlington2025: PC 43.1%PC 48 (33–63) · Lib 40 (25–54)Progressive Conservative 43.1%PCLeans71%LeansProgressive Conservative48.1 (33–63)Liberal39.6 (25–54)
Cambridge2025: PC 43.7%PC 49 (33–64) · Lib 32 (18–46)Progressive Conservative 43.7%PCLikely87%LikelyProgressive Conservative48.9 (33–64)Liberal31.6 (18–46)
Carleton2025: PC 49.6%PC 57 (42–72) · Lib 33 (19–48)Progressive Conservative 49.6%PCLikely93%LikelyProgressive Conservative57.2 (42–72)Liberal33.2 (19–48)
Chatham-Kent—Leamington2025: PC 52%PC 57 (42–73) · Lib 16 (5–30)Progressive Conservative 52%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative57.1 (42–73)Liberal16.1 (5–30)NDP11.6 (1–23)Other10.6 (1–19)
Davenport2025: NDP 57.1%NDP 54 (36–68) · PC 20 (7–36)NDP 57.1%NDPLikely95%LikelyNDP53.8 (36–68)Progressive Conservative20.4 (7–36)Liberal18.8 (6–34)
Don Valley East2025: Lib 56.6%Lib 58 (43–72) · PC 32 (18–46)Liberal 56.6%LibLikely94%LikelyLiberal58.0 (43–72)Progressive Conservative32.1 (18–46)
Don Valley North2025: Lib 43.8%Lib 54 (39–67) · PC 38 (23–52)Liberal 43.8%LibLikely85%LikelyLiberal53.8 (39–67)Progressive Conservative37.8 (23–52)
Don Valley West2025: Lib 57.2%Lib 58 (44–72) · PC 33 (19–48)Liberal 57.2%LibLikely93%LikelyLiberal58.3 (44–72)Progressive Conservative33.4 (19–48)
Dufferin—Caledon2025: PC 52.5%PC 57 (42–72) · Lib 23 (10–37)Progressive Conservative 52.5%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative57.4 (42–72)Liberal23.0 (10–37)Green12.6 (3–22)
Durham2025: PC 50.5%PC 56 (40–71) · Lib 27 (14–41)Progressive Conservative 50.5%PCSolid95%SolidProgressive Conservative55.8 (40–71)Liberal27.0 (14–41)
Eglinton—Lawrence2025: PC 48.5%PC 54 (39–68) · Lib 40 (26–53)Progressive Conservative 48.5%PCLikely82%LikelyProgressive Conservative53.8 (39–68)Liberal39.5 (26–53)
Elgin—Middlesex—London2025: PC 55.8%PC 60 (45–75) · Lib 22 (10–35)Progressive Conservative 55.8%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative60.4 (45–75)Liberal22.0 (10–35)
Essex2025: PC 55.6%PC 61 (45–76) · NDP 16 (4–28)Progressive Conservative 55.6%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative61.1 (45–76)NDP15.9 (4–28)Liberal13.5 (3–27)
Etobicoke Centre2025: PC 48.1%PC 52 (37–66) · Lib 38 (24–53)Progressive Conservative 48.1%PCLikely81%LikelyProgressive Conservative52.1 (37–66)Liberal38.2 (24–53)
Etobicoke North2025: PC 59.4%PC 63 (48–77) · Lib 26 (12–40)Progressive Conservative 59.4%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative63.3 (48–77)Liberal25.8 (12–40)
Etobicoke—Lakeshore2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 54 (39–68) · PC 37 (22–51)Liberal 48.5%LibLikely86%LikelyLiberal54.0 (39–68)Progressive Conservative37.0 (22–51)
Flamborough—Glanbrook2025: PC 49.4%PC 55 (39–69) · Lib 29 (15–43)Progressive Conservative 49.4%PCLikely94%LikelyProgressive Conservative54.5 (39–69)Liberal28.8 (15–43)
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell2025: PC 51.4%PC 56 (40–70) · Lib 34 (20–48)Progressive Conservative 51.4%PCLikely91%LikelyProgressive Conservative55.7 (40–70)Liberal33.9 (20–48)
Guelph2025: Grn 56.9%Grn 60 (40–71) · PC 24 (11–41)Green 56.9%GrnSolid95%SolidGreen60.2 (40–71)Progressive Conservative24.4 (11–41)
Haldimand—Norfolk2025: Oth 63.7%Bobbi Ann Brady 68 (43–91) · PC 22 (3–43)Other 63.7%Bobbi Ann BradySolid96%SolidBobbi Ann Brady67.8 (43–91)Progressive Conservative22.0 (3–43)
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock2025: PC 52%PC 58 (41–73) · Lib 21 (8–35)Progressive Conservative 52%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative57.6 (41–73)Liberal20.7 (8–35)
Hamilton Centre2025: NDP 38.4%NDP 46 (29–61) · PC 23 (9–38)NDP 38.4%NDPLikely89%LikelyNDP46.4 (29–61)Progressive Conservative22.7 (9–38)Liberal21.5 (9–36)
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek2025: PC 42.1%PC 51 (36–67) · Lib 27 (14–41)Progressive Conservative 42.1%PCLikely94%LikelyProgressive Conservative51.4 (36–67)Liberal27.0 (14–41)NDP11.1 (1–23)
Hamilton Mountain2025: PC 36.2%PC 47 (31–62) · Lib 27 (14–41)Progressive Conservative 36.2%PCLikely90%LikelyProgressive Conservative46.6 (31–62)Liberal26.6 (14–41)NDP18.4 (6–31)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas2025: NDP 38.9%NDP 37 (21–51) · PC 35 (20–51)NDP 38.9%NDPToss-up53%Toss-upNDP36.8 (21–51)Progressive Conservative34.5 (20–51)Liberal20.7 (8–35)
Hastings—Lennox and Addington2025: PC 48.6%PC 54 (38–69) · Lib 27 (14–42)Progressive Conservative 48.6%PCLikely94%LikelyProgressive Conservative53.7 (38–69)Liberal27.2 (14–42)
Humber River—Black Creek2025: NDP 35.3%PC 36 (21–51) · NDP 34 (18–47)NDP 35.3%PCgain from NDPToss-up50%Toss-upProgressive Conservative35.7 (21–51)NDP33.6 (18–47)Liberal25.4 (12–40)
Huron—Bruce2025: PC 50%PC 55 (39–70) · Lib 26 (13–39)Progressive Conservative 50%PCSolid96%SolidProgressive Conservative55.0 (39–70)Liberal25.5 (13–39)
Kanata—Carleton2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 50 (35–65) · PC 40 (25–55)Liberal 47.9%LibLeans73%LeansLiberal49.9 (35–65)Progressive Conservative40.0 (25–55)
Kenora—Rainy River2025: PC 59.9%PC 65 (49–79) · Lib 15 (4–28)Progressive Conservative 59.9%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative64.8 (49–79)Liberal15.0 (4–28)NDP13.3 (2–26)
Kiiwetinoong2025: NDP 62.2%NDP 59 (40–72) · PC 28 (13–44)NDP 62.2%NDPLikely94%LikelyNDP58.7 (40–72)Progressive Conservative27.9 (13–44)
Kingston and the Islands2025: Lib 61.6%Lib 63 (48–77) · PC 23 (9–38)Liberal 61.6%LibSolid98%SolidLiberal63.0 (48–77)Progressive Conservative23.2 (9–38)
King—Vaughan2025: PC 64.2%PC 67 (52–81) · Lib 25 (12–39)Progressive Conservative 64.2%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative67.1 (52–81)Liberal25.2 (12–39)
Kitchener Centre2025: Grn 51.4%Grn 55 (36–67) · PC 25 (11–42)Green 51.4%GrnLikely94%LikelyGreen55.2 (36–67)Progressive Conservative25.2 (11–42)Liberal11.9 (1–26)
Kitchener South—Hespeler2025: PC 45.4%PC 51 (35–66) · Lib 23 (11–37)Progressive Conservative 45.4%PCSolid95%SolidProgressive Conservative51.1 (35–66)Liberal23.4 (11–37)NDP12.3 (2–24)
Kitchener—Conestoga2025: PC 41.5%PC 47 (32–63) · Lib 27 (14–41)Progressive Conservative 41.5%PCLikely90%LikelyProgressive Conservative47.3 (32–63)Liberal27.0 (14–41)NDP12.8 (2–25)
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex2025: PC 53.6%PC 58 (43–73) · Lib 24 (11–38)Progressive Conservative 53.6%PCSolid97%SolidProgressive Conservative58.4 (43–73)Liberal23.8 (11–38)
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston2025: PC 49.1%PC 55 (38–70) · Lib 30 (16–45)Progressive Conservative 49.1%PCLikely92%LikelyProgressive Conservative54.5 (38–70)Liberal30.4 (16–45)
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes2025: PC 55.1%PC 60 (44–74) · Lib 25 (11–39)Progressive Conservative 55.1%PCSolid97%SolidProgressive Conservative59.8 (44–74)Liberal24.8 (11–39)
London North Centre2025: NDP 46.7%NDP 44 (27–58) · PC 34 (19–51)NDP 46.7%NDPLeans74%LeansNDP44.3 (27–58)Progressive Conservative34.4 (19–51)Liberal13.7 (3–27)
London West2025: NDP 49.2%NDP 47 (30–61) · PC 37 (21–53)NDP 49.2%NDPLeans73%LeansNDP46.7 (30–61)Progressive Conservative36.8 (21–53)
London—Fanshawe2025: NDP 47.6%NDP 45 (28–59) · PC 36 (21–52)NDP 47.6%NDPLeans72%LeansNDP45.4 (28–59)Progressive Conservative36.0 (21–52)Liberal10.5 (0–24)
Markham—Stouffville2025: PC 50.6%PC 55 (39–69) · Lib 38 (24–52)Progressive Conservative 50.6%PCLikely85%LikelyProgressive Conservative54.5 (39–69)Liberal38.1 (24–52)
Markham—Thornhill2025: PC 53.6%PC 57 (42–71) · Lib 36 (22–50)Progressive Conservative 53.6%PCLikely90%LikelyProgressive Conservative57.3 (42–71)Liberal36.1 (22–50)
Markham—Unionville2025: PC 61.2%PC 64 (49–78) · Lib 28 (15–42)Progressive Conservative 61.2%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative64.3 (49–78)Liberal28.0 (15–42)
Milton2025: PC 47.4%PC 52 (37–66) · Lib 38 (24–52)Progressive Conservative 47.4%PCLikely81%LikelyProgressive Conservative52.0 (37–66)Liberal38.0 (24–52)
Mississauga Centre2025: PC 46.8%PC 52 (37–66) · Lib 38 (24–52)Progressive Conservative 46.8%PCLikely81%LikelyProgressive Conservative51.7 (37–66)Liberal38.2 (24–52)
Mississauga East—Cooksville2025: PC 46.4%PC 55 (40–69) · Lib 38 (23–51)Progressive Conservative 46.4%PCLikely86%LikelyProgressive Conservative54.5 (40–69)Liberal37.5 (23–51)
Mississauga—Erin Mills2025: PC 44.3%PC 49 (34–64) · Lib 41 (27–56)Progressive Conservative 44.3%PCLeans70%LeansProgressive Conservative49.4 (34–64)Liberal41.3 (27–56)
Mississauga—Lakeshore2025: PC 47.5%PC 52 (37–66) · Lib 40 (26–55)Progressive Conservative 47.5%PCLeans78%LeansProgressive Conservative51.8 (37–66)Liberal40.2 (26–55)
Mississauga—Malton2025: PC 50.9%PC 56 (40–70) · Lib 36 (21–50)Progressive Conservative 50.9%PCLikely88%LikelyProgressive Conservative55.5 (40–70)Liberal35.7 (21–50)
Mississauga—Streetsville2025: PC 47.7%PC 52 (37–66) · Lib 40 (25–54)Progressive Conservative 47.7%PCLeans79%LeansProgressive Conservative52.0 (37–66)Liberal39.7 (25–54)
Mushkegowuk—James Bay2025: NDP 45.4%PC 46 (30–63) · NDP 43 (25–57)NDP 45.4%PCgain from NDPToss-up58%Toss-upProgressive Conservative46.3 (30–63)NDP42.7 (25–57)
Nepean2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 54 (39–68) · PC 36 (21–50)Liberal 48.5%LibLikely88%LikelyLiberal54.4 (39–68)Progressive Conservative35.5 (21–50)
Newmarket—Aurora2025: PC 47.6%PC 52 (37–67) · Lib 38 (24–53)Progressive Conservative 47.6%PCLikely81%LikelyProgressive Conservative52.4 (37–67)Liberal38.3 (24–53)
Niagara Centre2025: NDP 42.2%NDP 40 (23–54) · PC 39 (23–55)NDP 42.2%NDPToss-up53%Toss-upNDP40.0 (23–54)Progressive Conservative38.8 (23–55)Liberal12.7 (1–26)
Niagara Falls2025: NDP 55%NDP 52 (34–66) · PC 36 (21–53)NDP 55%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP51.9 (34–66)Progressive Conservative36.4 (21–53)
Niagara West2025: PC 51.1%PC 56 (41–72) · Lib 22 (9–37)Progressive Conservative 51.1%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative56.4 (41–72)Liberal22.3 (9–37)NDP10.9 (1–23)
Nickel Belt2025: NDP 48.4%NDP 46 (28–61) · PC 37 (21–54)NDP 48.4%NDPLeans70%LeansNDP45.7 (28–61)Progressive Conservative37.4 (21–54)
Nipissing2025: PC 54.8%PC 61 (44–76) · NDP 19 (6–32)Progressive Conservative 54.8%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative60.6 (44–76)NDP19.1 (6–32)Liberal10.3 (0–23)
Northumberland—Peterborough South2025: PC 52.1%PC 57 (41–72) · Lib 30 (16–44)Progressive Conservative 52.1%PCLikely94%LikelyProgressive Conservative56.7 (41–72)Liberal29.8 (16–44)
Oakville2025: PC 48%PC 52 (37–66) · Lib 40 (26–54)Progressive Conservative 48%PCLeans78%LeansProgressive Conservative52.0 (37–66)Liberal40.4 (26–54)
Oakville North—Burlington2025: PC 49.7%PC 54 (39–68) · Lib 38 (23–52)Progressive Conservative 49.7%PCLikely85%LikelyProgressive Conservative54.2 (39–68)Liberal37.5 (23–52)
Orléans2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 56 (41–70) · PC 35 (20–50)Liberal 54.2%LibLikely90%LikelyLiberal55.9 (41–70)Progressive Conservative35.0 (20–50)
Oshawa2025: NDP 45.9%NDP 44 (27–57) · PC 43 (27–59)NDP 45.9%NDPToss-up51%Toss-upNDP43.7 (27–57)Progressive Conservative43.1 (27–59)
Ottawa Centre2025: NDP 55.7%NDP 56 (38–69) · Lib 20 (7–35)NDP 55.7%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP55.7 (38–69)Liberal20.0 (7–35)Progressive Conservative17.5 (5–33)
Ottawa South2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 55 (40–70) · PC 26 (11–41)Liberal 53.2%LibSolid96%SolidLiberal55.4 (40–70)Progressive Conservative25.7 (11–41)NDP11.9 (2–24)
Ottawa West—Nepean2025: NDP 49.3%NDP 47 (30–60) · PC 31 (16–47)NDP 49.3%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP46.6 (30–60)Progressive Conservative30.6 (16–47)Liberal15.8 (3–31)
Ottawa—Vanier2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 54 (39–69) · PC 24 (10–39)Liberal 51.4%LibSolid96%SolidLiberal53.9 (39–69)Progressive Conservative23.8 (10–39)NDP12.4 (2–24)
Oxford2025: PC 55.3%PC 60 (44–75) · Lib 21 (8–35)Progressive Conservative 55.3%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative60.2 (44–75)Liberal20.6 (8–35)
Parkdale—High Park2025: NDP 45.4%NDP 46 (29–60) · Lib 27 (13–42)NDP 45.4%NDPLikely87%LikelyNDP46.4 (29–60)Liberal26.9 (13–42)Progressive Conservative18.7 (6–33)
Parry Sound—Muskoka2025: PC 46.8%PC 50 (35–67) · Grn 40 (22–51)Progressive Conservative 46.8%PCLeans77%LeansProgressive Conservative50.3 (35–67)Green39.5 (22–51)
Perth—Wellington2025: PC 47.4%PC 53 (37–68) · Lib 25 (13–39)Progressive Conservative 47.4%PCSolid95%SolidProgressive Conservative52.6 (37–68)Liberal25.4 (13–39)
Peterborough—Kawartha2025: PC 40.7%PC 46 (30–62) · Lib 34 (20–49)Progressive Conservative 40.7%PCLeans78%LeansProgressive Conservative46.2 (30–62)Liberal34.0 (20–49)NDP11.3 (2–23)
Pickering—Uxbridge2025: PC 48.1%PC 53 (37–67) · Lib 37 (22–51)Progressive Conservative 48.1%PCLikely85%LikelyProgressive Conservative52.8 (37–67)Liberal36.6 (22–51)
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke2025: PC 54.8%PC 63 (47–77) · Lib 19 (6–32)Progressive Conservative 54.8%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative62.6 (47–77)Liberal18.5 (6–32)
Richmond Hill2025: PC 55.4%PC 60 (44–73) · Lib 31 (18–45)Progressive Conservative 55.4%PCSolid95%SolidProgressive Conservative59.5 (44–73)Liberal31.4 (18–45)
Sarnia—Lambton2025: PC 51.3%PC 58 (42–73) · Lib 16 (5–30)Progressive Conservative 51.3%PCSolid98%SolidProgressive Conservative57.8 (42–73)Liberal16.4 (5–30)NDP14.3 (3–27)
Sault Ste. Marie2025: PC 43.1%NDP 37 (17–53) · PC 28 (12–45)Progressive Conservative 43.1%NDPgain from PCToss-up59%Toss-upNDP36.7 (17–53)Progressive Conservative28.4 (12–45)Chris Scott21.4 (8–48)
Scarborough Centre2025: PC 44%PC 49 (34–64) · Lib 39 (25–54)Progressive Conservative 44%PCLeans73%LeansProgressive Conservative48.9 (34–64)Liberal39.2 (25–54)
Scarborough North2025: PC 53%PC 57 (42–72) · Lib 32 (18–46)Progressive Conservative 53%PCLikely94%LikelyProgressive Conservative57.4 (42–72)Liberal31.8 (18–46)
Scarborough Southwest2025: NDP 42.9%NDP 44 (28–58) · PC 30 (15–46)NDP 42.9%NDPLikely80%LikelyNDP44.4 (28–58)Progressive Conservative30.1 (15–46)Liberal19.6 (7–34)
Scarborough—Agincourt2025: PC 49.4%PC 53 (38–67) · Lib 38 (24–52)Progressive Conservative 49.4%PCLikely83%LikelyProgressive Conservative53.2 (38–67)Liberal38.4 (24–52)
Scarborough—Guildwood2025: Lib 51%Lib 53 (38–67) · PC 38 (23–52)Liberal 51%LibLikely84%LikelyLiberal53.2 (38–67)Progressive Conservative37.7 (23–52)
Scarborough—Rouge Park2025: PC 49.2%PC 54 (38–68) · Lib 37 (23–51)Progressive Conservative 49.2%PCLikely85%LikelyProgressive Conservative53.6 (38–68)Liberal37.1 (23–51)
Simcoe North2025: PC 51.4%PC 56 (40–72) · Lib 25 (11–40)Progressive Conservative 51.4%PCSolid96%SolidProgressive Conservative56.3 (40–72)Liberal25.1 (11–40)
Simcoe—Grey2025: PC 53.6%PC 58 (42–72) · Lib 30 (16–44)Progressive Conservative 53.6%PCLikely95%LikelyProgressive Conservative57.5 (42–72)Liberal29.6 (16–44)
Spadina—Fort York2025: NDP 45%NDP 42 (25–56) · Lib 29 (16–45)NDP 45%NDPLeans77%LeansNDP42.4 (25–56)Liberal29.4 (16–45)Progressive Conservative22.2 (9–37)
St. Catharines2025: NDP 42.1%NDP 40 (23–54) · PC 37 (21–53)NDP 42.1%NDPToss-up57%Toss-upNDP39.8 (23–54)Progressive Conservative36.7 (21–53)Liberal15.2 (3–29)
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry2025: PC 61.6%PC 66 (50–81) · Lib 17 (5–31)Progressive Conservative 61.6%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative66.2 (50–81)Liberal16.9 (5–31)
Sudbury2025: NDP 46.7%NDP 44 (27–59) · PC 40 (24–57)NDP 46.7%NDPLeans60%LeansNDP44.4 (27–59)Progressive Conservative40.1 (24–57)
Thornhill2025: PC 64%PC 67 (52–80) · Lib 26 (12–39)Progressive Conservative 64%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative66.8 (52–80)Liberal25.5 (12–39)
Thunder Bay—Atikokan2025: PC 45.7%PC 52 (35–67) · Lib 22 (10–36)Progressive Conservative 45.7%PCLikely95%LikelyProgressive Conservative51.5 (35–67)Liberal22.3 (10–36)NDP19.4 (7–33)
Thunder Bay—Superior North2025: NDP 40.6%NDP 39 (22–53) · PC 36 (20–52)NDP 40.6%NDPToss-up56%Toss-upNDP38.5 (22–53)Progressive Conservative35.6 (20–52)Liberal19.2 (7–33)
Timiskaming—Cochrane2025: NDP 44%NDP 42 (25–56) · PC 40 (23–56)NDP 44%NDPToss-up56%Toss-upNDP41.9 (25–56)Progressive Conservative39.5 (23–56)
Timmins2025: PC 68.4%PC 73 (57–87) · NDP 14 (2–27)Progressive Conservative 68.4%PCSolid>99%SolidProgressive Conservative73.0 (57–87)NDP14.2 (2–27)
Toronto Centre2025: NDP 44.5%NDP 42 (25–56) · Lib 34 (20–50)NDP 44.5%NDPLeans69%LeansNDP41.9 (25–56)Liberal34.2 (20–50)Progressive Conservative16.9 (4–32)
Toronto—Danforth2025: NDP 60.4%NDP 57 (39–70) · Lib 20 (7–35)NDP 60.4%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP56.8 (39–70)Liberal19.5 (7–35)Progressive Conservative17.1 (4–33)
Toronto—St. Paul's2025: Lib 40.9%Lib 48 (33–63) · PC 25 (11–39)Liberal 40.9%LibLikely91%LikelyLiberal48.1 (33–63)Progressive Conservative24.7 (11–39)NDP22.6 (9–36)
University—Rosedale2025: NDP 45.5%NDP 43 (26–57) · Lib 29 (15–44)NDP 45.5%NDPLeans78%LeansNDP42.8 (26–57)Liberal28.7 (15–44)Progressive Conservative22.1 (8–38)
Vaughan—Woodbridge2025: PC 65.1%PC 68 (53–81) · Lib 24 (11–37)Progressive Conservative 65.1%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative68.4 (53–81)Liberal23.6 (11–37)
Waterloo2025: NDP 50.2%NDP 48 (30–61) · PC 30 (15–46)NDP 50.2%NDPLikely86%LikelyNDP47.5 (30–61)Progressive Conservative29.5 (15–46)Liberal13.9 (2–28)
Wellington—Halton Hills2025: PC 45.7%PC 54 (38–70) · Lib 23 (10–38)Progressive Conservative 45.7%PCSolid96%SolidProgressive Conservative54.0 (38–70)Liberal23.2 (10–38)Green14.5 (4–24)
Whitby2025: PC 48.1%PC 53 (38–67) · Lib 37 (22–51)Progressive Conservative 48.1%PCLikely85%LikelyProgressive Conservative52.9 (38–67)Liberal36.7 (22–51)
Willowdale2025: PC 46.3%PC 51 (36–65) · Lib 41 (27–55)Progressive Conservative 46.3%PCLeans74%LeansProgressive Conservative50.9 (36–65)Liberal41.0 (27–55)
Windsor West2025: NDP 52.1%NDP 48 (31–61) · PC 40 (25–56)NDP 52.1%NDPLeans70%LeansNDP47.9 (31–61)Progressive Conservative39.7 (25–56)
Windsor—Tecumseh2025: PC 48.2%PC 54 (38–70) · NDP 24 (11–37)Progressive Conservative 48.2%PCSolid96%SolidProgressive Conservative54.4 (38–70)NDP24.2 (11–37)Liberal12.3 (1–26)
York Centre2025: PC 54.1%PC 58 (43–72) · Lib 32 (19–47)Progressive Conservative 54.1%PCLikely94%LikelyProgressive Conservative58.0 (43–72)Liberal32.4 (19–47)
York South—Weston2025: PC 35.2%PC 46 (31–61) · Lib 30 (17–44)Progressive Conservative 35.2%PCLikely84%LikelyProgressive Conservative45.9 (31–61)Liberal30.1 (17–44)NDP17.8 (6–30)
York—Simcoe2025: PC 59.4%PC 66 (51–80) · Lib 20 (7–34)Progressive Conservative 59.4%PCSolid99%SolidProgressive Conservative66.2 (51–80)Liberal19.8 (7–34)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 4 Sep 2025, with the spread of recent polls
PartyAverageSpreadChange
Progressive Conservative47.443.5–51.4−1.3
Liberal28.424.8–32.0−1.9
NDP14.912.7–17.1+1.3
Green5.43.8–7.0+1.1
Others3.9 +0.8

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 4 Sep 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 19 Aug 2025, in points.

Polls included (10)

The 10 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterPCLibNDPGrn
4 SepPallas DataNew1,026±3.14526177
19 AugAbacus Data1,037±3.05327125
14 AugLiaison Strategies800±3.44435153
15 JulAbacus Data1,000±3.15028136
29 JunPallas Data1,080±3.04329216
26 JunMainstreet Research923±3.24132173
5 JunAbacus Data1,000±3.14928145
25 MayLeger1,025±3.14532155
9 MayLiaison Strategies1,000±3.14636132
26 MarCampaign Research1,672±2.24624188

Ontario polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s Ontario polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2025 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

0208063JulOct2026AprJulProgressive Conservative 64Liberal 29NDP 28Grn 2Other 1

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

0255075100%JulOct2026AprJulProgressive Conservative 54%Minority 44%Liberal 2%

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 63 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 46 projections, to 19 September 2026, were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPCLibNDPGrnOthPC maj.Lib maj.
29 Sep 2026Mainstreet Research6429282154%2%44%
19 Sep 2026Liaison Strategies6430262156%3%41%
24 Aug 2026Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies6430272154%3%43%
9 Aug 2026Pallas Data5832292136%3%61%
21 Jul 2026Liaison Strategies5634292131%4%65%
16 Jul 2026EKOS6130293146%2%52%
25 Jun 2026Abacus Data6231272147%3%50%
17 Jun 2026Abacus Data6132282144%3%53%
39 earlier projections
Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionPCLibNDPGrnOthPC maj.Lib maj.
16 Jun 2026EKOS5734283134%4%62%
15 Jun 2026Liaison Strategies5638272132%6%62%
20 May 2026Abacus Data6133262145%4%51%
16 May 2026Liaison Strategies5835272137%5%58%
11 May 2026Leger5935272139%4%57%
7 May 2026Mainstreet Research5835272137%4%59%
26 Apr 2026Liaison Strategies5935272140%4%56%
22 Apr 2026Pallas Data6232272149%3%47%
21 Apr 2026Abacus Data6331262152%3%44%
8 Apr 2026Pallas Data6529262160%2%38%
6 Apr 2026Abacus Data6530262158%3%39%
29 Mar 2026Liaison Strategies6531252159%3%37%
11 Mar 2026Abacus Data, Ipsos6928242171%2%27%
22 Feb 2026Liaison Strategies7026242175%2%23%
10 Feb 2026Abacus Data7522242186%1%13%
24 Jan 2026Pallas Data7521252188%1%11%
21 Jan 2026Liaison Strategies7620252190%1%9%
13 Jan 2026Abacus Data8115252196%<1%3%
7 Dec 2025Liaison Strategies7521252187%1%12%
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid7718252192%1%7%
15 Nov 2025Pallas Data8018232195%1%5%
7 Nov 2025North Poll8118232195%1%4%
6 Nov 2025Abacus Data8117222195%1%4%
20 Oct 2025Leger8019222194%1%6%
15 Oct 2025Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies8118222195%1%4%
13 Oct 2025Relay Strategies8018232195%1%5%
18 Sep 2025Mainstreet Research8316222196%<1%3%
17 Sep 2025Abacus Data8316222197%<1%3%
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid8018232195%1%5%
4 Sep 2025 (this page)Pallas Data8118212195%1%4%
19 Aug 2025Abacus Data8219192195%1%5%
14 Aug 2025Liaison Strategies7524222185%2%14%
15 Jul 2025Abacus Data7720232191%1%8%
29 Jun 2025Pallas Data7422252185%1%14%
26 Jun 2025Mainstreet Research7523232186%1%13%
5 Jun 2025Abacus Data7921212192%1%7%
25 May 2025Leger7526212183%2%15%
9 May 2025Liaison Strategies7526202183%2%14%
26 Mar 2025Campaign Research8115252196%<1%3%

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 124 ridings. It moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since that election, the same number of points everywhere (a uniform swing). Before the ridings are adjusted to reproduce the average, a party gains 6 points where its member runs again, and 8 more where that member was first elected in 2025 or at a by-election since, whose personal vote the 2025 result does not yet hold; it loses 2 where its member is not running. Until retirements are announced, every member is presumed to run again. Two independents, Bobbi Ann Brady and Chris Scott, keep part of their own 2025 vote.

These rules and their sizes come from ten provincial elections from 2020 to 2025. With each election scored using sizes fitted on the other nine, the projected leader won 88.7% of ridings in 2022 and 90.3% in 2025; keeping every riding with the party that won it last time won 88.7% and 92.7%. The province-wide swing of the other projections did worse in both (82.3% and 82.3%).

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors and riding errors of the size seen in those elections. Candidates’ personal appeal beyond incumbency, local campaigns and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2025 election results