Sarnia—Lambton

Sarnia—Lambton, a riding defined by its petrochemical industry at the southern end of Lake Huron, entered the 2025 election with Bob Bailey as one of the longest-serving Progressive Conservative MPPs in Ontario. First elected in 2007, Bailey was seeking an unprecedented sixth term. During the 2022–2025 term, he continued to represent a riding where the economy was closely tied to the cluster of refineries and chemical plants known as Chemical Valley. The snap election call meant a short campaign, and the contest drew nine candidates, the largest field in the riding.

Bailey's decision not to attend any all-candidates debates during the campaign drew some local criticism, though it did not appear to dent his support in the reliably conservative riding.

Candidates

Bob Bailey (Progressive Conservative) — Bailey grew up in the Petrolia area and worked at NOVA Chemicals for more than thirty years before entering politics. First elected in 2007 by defeating the riding's Liberal incumbent, he has held the seat through five consecutive elections. He served as a Township of Enniskillen councillor before entering provincial politics.

Candace Young (NDP) — Young is Anishinaabe and a member of Kettle and Stony Point First Nation. Born and raised in Sarnia, she works as a math professor at Lambton College and serves as vice-president of OPSEU Local 125, representing college staff.

Rachel Willsie (Liberal) — Willsie is a nurse with fifteen years of experience at Bluewater Health who later taught nursing at Lambton College while completing a Master's degree in political science with a focus on public policy. She grew up in Lambton County in a farming family.

Keith Benn (New Blue Party), Nathan Colquhoun (Independent), Pamela Reid (Green Party), Jacques Boudreau (Libertarian), Mark Lamore (Ontario Party), and Tom Stoukas (People's Political Party) also ran.

Local Issues

Environmental health and industrial emissions dominated local discourse during the 2022–2025 term, reaching a crisis point in the spring of 2024. In April 2024, Aamjiwnaang First Nation, whose territory is surrounded on three sides by Chemical Valley's industrial facilities, declared a state of emergency after air monitors detected sharply elevated benzene levels linked to operations at the INEOS Styrolution plastics plant. Community members reported headaches, nausea, and dizziness. The Ontario Ministry of the Environment subsequently pulled the facility's environmental compliance approval, and the company ultimately announced it would permanently close the plant. The episode intensified longstanding concerns about the adequacy of provincial environmental monitoring and enforcement in the corridor.

Healthcare access was a persistent challenge in Sarnia—Lambton. The region faced an ongoing shortage of family physicians, and Bluewater Health experienced staffing pressures that affected emergency department capacity. A local physician recruitment task force continued its work throughout the term, but the gap between retiring practitioners and new arrivals remained significant. Residents in the riding's rural communities faced particular difficulty accessing primary care.

The long-term future of the petrochemical sector continued to generate debate. While the industry remained the region's dominant employer, discussions about energy transition, investment in renewable energy, and the economic impact of potential plant closures created uncertainty. The permanent shutdown of the INEOS Styrolution facility underscored the vulnerability of a local economy heavily dependent on a single industrial sector.