Ontario seat projection, 22 February 2026
As of 22 February 2026, from 27 polls
No Ontario election has been called, and Ontario no longer has a fixed election date, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls. Each riding’s 2025 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, with allowances for members running again and for open seats, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 29 September 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 22 February 2026.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the PCs win a median of 70 seats (90% range 46–87) and a majority in 75%; the Liberals 26 seats (90% range 14–51) and a majority in 2%; the NDP 24 seats (90% range 14–29); the Greens 2 seats (90% range 1–3); independents and others 1 seat (90% range 1–2). No party wins a majority in 23%.
Progressive Conservative majority
75%
Most seats in 94% of simulations
Liberal majority
2%
Most seats in 6% of simulations
No majority
23%
9 ridings with no party above 60%
63 for a majority
Progressive Conservative
70 seats (46–87) · majority 75%
70 seats (46–87) · majority 75%
Liberal
26 seats (14–51) · majority 2%
26 seats (14–51) · majority 2%
NDP
24 seats (14–29)
24 seats (14–29)
Green
2 seats (1–3)
2 seats (1–3)
Others
1 seat (1–2)
1 seat (1–2)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 63 of 124 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
63 for a majority
Progressive Conservative
Median 70, 90%: 46–87
Majority in 75%
Most frequent: 69 (3.9%)
Liberal
Median 26, 90%: 14–51
Majority in 2%
Most frequent: 26 (4.3%)
NDP
Median 24, 90%: 14–29
Most frequent: 26 (12.0%)
Green
Median 2, 90%: 1–3
Most frequent: 2 (61.5%)
Others
Median 1, 90%: 1–2
Most frequent: 1 (80.9%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 70 | 46 to 87 | 69 seats, 3.9% of simulations | 75% |
| Liberal | 26 | 14 to 51 | 26 seats, 4.3% of simulations | 2% |
| NDP | 24 | 14 to 29 | 26 seats, 12.0% of simulations | <1% |
| Green | 2 | 1 to 3 | 2 seats, 61.5% of simulations | 0% |
| Others | 1 | 1 to 2 | 1 seats, 80.9% of simulations | 0% |
What changed
New poll
- Liaison Strategies, fieldwork to 22 Feb 2026, 1,000 respondentsProgressive Conservative 40 · Liberal 36 · NDP 17 · Green 5
Change since 10 Feb 2026
- Median seats: Progressive Conservative −5, Liberal +4, NDP 0, Green 0, Other 0.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Progressive Conservative −11, Liberal +1; no majority +11.
- Projected leader changed in 2 ridings: Burlington (Progressive Conservative to Liberal); Mississauga—Erin Mills (Progressive Conservative to Liberal).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Progressive Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Likely 80–95% | 34 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Leans 60–80% | 22 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Toss-up <60% | 9 | ||||
Ontario
Greater Toronto and Hamilton
Toronto
Ottawa
Seats changing hands
Won in 2025Projected
PCProgressive Conservative80
LibLiberal14
NDPNDP27
GrnGreen2
OthOthers1
PCProgressive Conservative71
LibLiberal14
NDPNDP27
GrnGreen2
OthOthers1
Toss-upToss-up9
| Party | 2025 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCProgressive Conservative | 80 | 71 | – | 1 | 8 |
| LibLiberal | 14 | 14 | – | – | – |
| NDPNDP | 27 | 27 | 1 | – | 1 |
| GrnGreen | 2 | 2 | – | – | – |
| OthOthers | 1 | 1 | – | – | – |
| Toss-up | 9 | ||||
The path to a majority
Progressive Conservative63rd-best riding: Whitby, 68% · chance of a majority 75%
Liberal63rd-best riding: Kitchener South—Hespeler, 11% · chance of a majority 2%
All 124 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2025 results.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2025, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AjaxGTA (905) · 2025: Lib 45%Lib 55 (40–69) · PC 36 (22–50) | Liberal 45% | LibLiberalLikely | 89% | Likely | Liberal54.9 (40–69)Progressive Conservative35.7 (22–50) |
| Algoma—ManitoulinNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 41.3%PC 51 (36–67) · NDP 25 (11–39) | Progressive Conservative 41.3% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative51.3 (36–67)NDP24.7 (11–39)Liberal16.7 (5–30) |
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 57.2%PC 56 (41–71) · Lib 35 (21–50) | Progressive Conservative 57.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Progressive Conservative56.1 (41–71)Liberal35.3 (21–50) |
| Barrie—InnisfilCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 54.1%PC 54 (38–69) · Lib 28 (13–43) | Progressive Conservative 54.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative54.1 (38–69)Liberal27.7 (13–43)NDP10.2 (1–22) |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 49.9%PC 49 (34–65) · Lib 37 (22–52) | Progressive Conservative 49.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 78% | Leans | Progressive Conservative49.4 (34–65)Liberal36.8 (22–52) |
| Bay of QuinteEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 44.1%PC 45 (29–60) · Lib 33 (18–48) | Progressive Conservative 44.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 77% | Leans | Progressive Conservative44.7 (29–60)Liberal32.8 (18–48)NDP15.3 (4–28) |
| Beaches—East YorkToronto · 2025: Lib 51.2%Lib 57 (42–72) · NDP 19 (7–31) | Liberal 51.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal57.4 (42–72)NDP18.8 (7–31)Progressive Conservative17.9 (5–32) |
| Brampton CentreGTA (905) · 2025: PC 51.9%PC 52 (36–66) · Lib 35 (21–50) | Progressive Conservative 51.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 84% | Likely | Progressive Conservative51.5 (36–66)Liberal35.3 (21–50) |
| Brampton EastGTA (905) · 2025: PC 51.8%PC 54 (39–69) · Lib 33 (18–47) | Progressive Conservative 51.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Progressive Conservative53.8 (39–69)Liberal32.8 (18–47) |
| Brampton NorthGTA (905) · 2025: PC 57.5%PC 57 (41–71) · Lib 32 (18–46) | Progressive Conservative 57.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative56.7 (41–71)Liberal31.9 (18–46) |
| Brampton SouthGTA (905) · 2025: PC 52.5%PC 52 (37–67) · Lib 34 (20–49) | Progressive Conservative 52.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 87% | Likely | Progressive Conservative52.2 (37–67)Liberal33.9 (20–49) |
| Brampton WestGTA (905) · 2025: PC 56.6%PC 56 (41–70) · Lib 34 (20–48) | Progressive Conservative 56.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Progressive Conservative56.1 (41–70)Liberal34.1 (20–48) |
| Brantford—BrantSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 47.2%PC 48 (32–63) · Lib 22 (9–36) | Progressive Conservative 47.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 93% | Likely | Progressive Conservative47.7 (32–63)Liberal21.9 (9–36)NDP19.8 (8–33) |
| Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 44.1%PC 48 (33–63) · Lib 29 (16–43) | Progressive Conservative 44.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 89% | Likely | Progressive Conservative48.2 (33–63)Liberal28.5 (16–43)Green11.3 (1–21) |
| BurlingtonHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 43.1%Lib 44 (29–58) · PC 43 (28–58) | Progressive Conservative 43.1% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Liberal43.6 (29–58)Progressive Conservative43.1 (28–58) |
| CambridgeSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 43.7%PC 44 (29–59) · Lib 36 (22–50) | Progressive Conservative 43.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 71% | Leans | Progressive Conservative43.9 (29–59)Liberal35.7 (22–50) |
| CarletonEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 49.6%PC 53 (37–67) · Lib 37 (22–52) | Progressive Conservative 49.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Progressive Conservative52.6 (37–67)Liberal37.0 (22–52) |
| Chatham-Kent—LeamingtonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 52%PC 52 (37–68) · Lib 20 (8–34) | Progressive Conservative 52% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Progressive Conservative51.9 (37–68)Liberal20.0 (8–34)NDP13.9 (3–26) |
| DavenportToronto · 2025: NDP 57.1%NDP 56 (40–70) · Lib 22 (9–38) | NDP 57.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 96% | Solid | NDP56.3 (40–70)Liberal22.3 (9–38)Progressive Conservative15.1 (3–30) |
| Don Valley EastToronto · 2025: Lib 56.6%Lib 62 (47–76) · PC 27 (14–42) | Liberal 56.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal62.1 (47–76)Progressive Conservative27.3 (14–42) |
| Don Valley NorthToronto · 2025: Lib 43.8%Lib 58 (43–71) · PC 33 (19–47) | Liberal 43.8% | LibLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal57.7 (43–71)Progressive Conservative33.3 (19–47) |
| Don Valley WestToronto · 2025: Lib 57.2%Lib 63 (48–76) · PC 29 (15–43) | Liberal 57.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal62.5 (48–76)Progressive Conservative28.8 (15–43) |
| Dufferin—CaledonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 52.5%PC 53 (37–67) · Lib 27 (13–42) | Progressive Conservative 52.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative52.6 (37–67)Liberal27.0 (13–42)Green12.3 (2–21) |
| DurhamGTA (905) · 2025: PC 50.5%PC 51 (35–66) · Lib 31 (17–46) | Progressive Conservative 50.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 89% | Likely | Progressive Conservative50.7 (35–66)Liberal31.0 (17–46)NDP11.1 (2–22) |
| Eglinton—LawrenceToronto · 2025: PC 48.5%PC 50 (35–64) · Lib 44 (30–58) | Progressive Conservative 48.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 65% | Leans | Progressive Conservative49.8 (35–64)Liberal43.7 (30–58) |
| Elgin—Middlesex—LondonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.8%PC 55 (40–70) · Lib 26 (13–40) | Progressive Conservative 55.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Progressive Conservative55.4 (40–70)Liberal26.1 (13–40) |
| EssexSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.6%PC 56 (40–71) · NDP 18 (6–31) | Progressive Conservative 55.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative55.7 (40–71)NDP18.4 (6–31)Liberal17.4 (5–32) |
| Etobicoke CentreToronto · 2025: PC 48.1%PC 47 (32–62) · Lib 42 (28–57) | Progressive Conservative 48.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 63% | Leans | Progressive Conservative47.4 (32–62)Liberal42.4 (28–57) |
| Etobicoke NorthToronto · 2025: PC 59.4%PC 58 (43–73) · Lib 30 (16–44) | Progressive Conservative 59.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 95% | Solid | Progressive Conservative58.4 (43–73)Liberal29.9 (16–44) |
| Etobicoke—LakeshoreToronto · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 58 (43–72) · PC 32 (18–47) | Liberal 48.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal57.9 (43–72)Progressive Conservative32.4 (18–47) |
| Flamborough—GlanbrookHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 49.4%PC 49 (34–64) · Lib 33 (18–48) | Progressive Conservative 49.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Progressive Conservative49.3 (34–64)Liberal32.7 (18–48) |
| Glengarry—Prescott—RussellEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 51.4%PC 51 (36–66) · Lib 38 (23–53) | Progressive Conservative 51.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | Progressive Conservative51.1 (36–66)Liberal38.1 (23–53) |
| GuelphSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: Grn 56.9%Grn 60 (39–72) · PC 20 (7–37) | Green 56.9% | GrnGreenSolid | 95% | Solid | Green60.1 (39–72)Progressive Conservative20.0 (7–37)Liberal12.8 (2–28) |
| Haldimand—NorfolkHamilton-Niagara · 2025: Oth 63.7%Bobbi Ann Brady 68 (43–91) · PC 20 (3–40) | Other 63.7% | Bobbi Ann BradySolid | 97% | Solid | Bobbi Ann Brady67.7 (43–91)Progressive Conservative20.3 (3–40) |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—BrockCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 52%PC 52 (36–68) · Lib 25 (11–40) | Progressive Conservative 52% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 95% | Likely | Progressive Conservative52.4 (36–68)Liberal24.7 (11–40)NDP10.7 (1–22) |
| Hamilton CentreHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 38.4%NDP 49 (33–63) · Lib 25 (12–39) | NDP 38.4% | NDPNDPLikely | 92% | Likely | NDP48.8 (33–63)Liberal24.8 (12–39)Progressive Conservative17.8 (5–32) |
| Hamilton East—Stoney CreekHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 42.1%PC 47 (31–62) · Lib 31 (17–45) | Progressive Conservative 42.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Progressive Conservative46.5 (31–62)Liberal30.7 (17–45)NDP13.2 (2–25) |
| Hamilton MountainHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 36.2%PC 42 (26–57) · Lib 30 (17–45) | Progressive Conservative 36.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 76% | Leans | Progressive Conservative41.6 (26–57)Liberal30.2 (17–45)NDP20.6 (8–34) |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—DundasHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 38.9%NDP 39 (24–54) · PC 29 (15–45) | NDP 38.9% | NDPNDPLeans | 69% | Leans | NDP39.4 (24–54)Progressive Conservative29.1 (15–45)Liberal24.3 (11–40) |
| Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 48.6%PC 49 (33–64) · Lib 31 (17–47) | Progressive Conservative 48.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 86% | Likely | Progressive Conservative48.6 (33–64)Liberal31.3 (17–47) |
| Humber River—Black CreekToronto · 2025: NDP 35.3%NDP 36 (21–50) · PC 30 (16–45) | NDP 35.3% | NDPNDPToss-up | 53% | Toss-up | NDP36.2 (21–50)Progressive Conservative30.3 (16–45)Liberal29.0 (15–44) |
| Huron—BruceSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 50%PC 50 (34–65) · Lib 30 (16–44) | Progressive Conservative 50% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Progressive Conservative49.9 (34–65)Liberal29.5 (16–44) |
| Kanata—CarletonEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 47.9%Lib 54 (39–69) · PC 35 (20–50) | Liberal 47.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 88% | Likely | Liberal54.0 (39–69)Progressive Conservative35.1 (20–50) |
| Kenora—Rainy RiverNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 59.9%PC 60 (43–74) · Lib 19 (7–33) | Progressive Conservative 59.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative59.5 (43–74)Liberal18.9 (7–33)NDP15.6 (3–29) |
| KiiwetinoongNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 62.2%NDP 62 (45–75) · PC 23 (8–38) | NDP 62.2% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP61.6 (45–75)Progressive Conservative22.5 (8–38) |
| Kingston and the IslandsEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 61.6%Lib 67 (52–81) · PC 18 (5–33) | Liberal 61.6% | LibLiberalSolid | 99% | Solid | Liberal66.8 (52–81)Progressive Conservative18.3 (5–33) |
| King—VaughanGTA (905) · 2025: PC 64.2%PC 63 (48–76) · Lib 29 (15–44) | Progressive Conservative 64.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Progressive Conservative62.5 (48–76)Liberal29.4 (15–44) |
| Kitchener CentreSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: Grn 51.4%Grn 55 (35–67) · PC 21 (7–37) | Green 51.4% | GrnGreenLikely | 95% | Likely | Green55.0 (35–67)Progressive Conservative20.6 (7–37)Liberal15.8 (4–31) |
| Kitchener South—HespelerSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 45.4%PC 46 (30–61) · Lib 27 (14–42) | Progressive Conservative 45.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative45.9 (30–61)Liberal27.4 (14–42)NDP14.5 (3–27) |
| Kitchener—ConestogaSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 41.5%PC 42 (27–57) · Lib 31 (17–45) | Progressive Conservative 41.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 77% | Leans | Progressive Conservative42.1 (27–57)Liberal30.9 (17–45)NDP15.1 (4–28) |
| Lambton—Kent—MiddlesexSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 53.6%PC 53 (38–68) · Lib 28 (14–42) | Progressive Conservative 53.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative53.2 (38–68)Liberal27.8 (14–42) |
| Lanark—Frontenac—KingstonEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 49.1%PC 49 (33–65) · Lib 35 (20–50) | Progressive Conservative 49.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 82% | Likely | Progressive Conservative49.4 (33–65)Liberal34.5 (20–50) |
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.1%PC 55 (39–70) · Lib 29 (14–43) | Progressive Conservative 55.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative54.7 (39–70)Liberal28.8 (14–43) |
| London North CentreSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 46.7%NDP 47 (31–61) · PC 29 (14–44) | NDP 46.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 87% | Likely | NDP47.0 (31–61)Progressive Conservative28.9 (14–44)Liberal17.4 (5–32) |
| London WestSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 49.2%NDP 49 (33–64) · PC 31 (16–47) | NDP 49.2% | NDPNDPLikely | 87% | Likely | NDP49.4 (33–64)Progressive Conservative31.2 (16–47)Liberal13.0 (2–27) |
| London—FanshaweSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 47.6%NDP 48 (32–62) · PC 30 (16–46) | NDP 47.6% | NDPNDPLikely | 86% | Likely | NDP48.1 (32–62)Progressive Conservative30.4 (16–46)Liberal14.3 (3–28) |
| Markham—StouffvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 50.6%PC 50 (35–64) · Lib 42 (27–57) | Progressive Conservative 50.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Progressive Conservative49.8 (35–64)Liberal42.3 (27–57) |
| Markham—ThornhillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 53.6%PC 53 (37–67) · Lib 40 (26–55) | Progressive Conservative 53.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 77% | Leans | Progressive Conservative52.5 (37–67)Liberal40.2 (26–55) |
| Markham—UnionvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 61.2%PC 60 (45–74) · Lib 32 (18–46) | Progressive Conservative 61.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 95% | Likely | Progressive Conservative59.7 (45–74)Liberal32.2 (18–46) |
| MiltonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.4%PC 47 (32–62) · Lib 42 (28–57) | Progressive Conservative 47.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 63% | Leans | Progressive Conservative47.1 (32–62)Liberal42.2 (28–57) |
| Mississauga CentreGTA (905) · 2025: PC 46.8%PC 47 (32–61) · Lib 42 (27–57) | Progressive Conservative 46.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 61% | Leans | Progressive Conservative46.8 (32–61)Liberal42.3 (27–57) |
| Mississauga East—CooksvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 46.4%PC 50 (35–64) · Lib 41 (27–55) | Progressive Conservative 46.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 72% | Leans | Progressive Conservative50.1 (35–64)Liberal41.3 (27–55) |
| Mississauga—Erin MillsGTA (905) · 2025: PC 44.3%Lib 45 (31–60) · PC 45 (30–59) | Progressive Conservative 44.3% | LibLiberalgain from PCToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Liberal45.4 (31–60)Progressive Conservative44.5 (30–59) |
| Mississauga—LakeshoreGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.5%PC 47 (32–62) · Lib 44 (30–59) | Progressive Conservative 47.5% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 57% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative47.1 (32–62)Liberal44.4 (30–59) |
| Mississauga—MaltonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 50.9%PC 51 (35–65) · Lib 40 (25–55) | Progressive Conservative 50.9% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 75% | Leans | Progressive Conservative50.5 (35–65)Liberal39.8 (25–55) |
| Mississauga—StreetsvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.7%PC 47 (32–62) · Lib 44 (29–58) | Progressive Conservative 47.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative47.3 (32–62)Liberal43.9 (29–58) |
| Mushkegowuk—James BayNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 45.4%NDP 46 (29–60) · PC 41 (25–57) | NDP 45.4% | NDPNDPLeans | 62% | Leans | NDP45.5 (29–60)Progressive Conservative40.5 (25–57) |
| NepeanEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 48.5%Lib 58 (43–72) · PC 31 (17–46) | Liberal 48.5% | LibLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal58.2 (43–72)Progressive Conservative30.9 (17–46) |
| Newmarket—AuroraGTA (905) · 2025: PC 47.6%PC 47 (32–62) · Lib 43 (28–57) | Progressive Conservative 47.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 62% | Leans | Progressive Conservative47.4 (32–62)Liberal42.5 (28–57) |
| Niagara CentreHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 42.2%NDP 43 (27–57) · PC 33 (18–49) | NDP 42.2% | NDPNDPLeans | 73% | Leans | NDP42.8 (27–57)Progressive Conservative33.3 (18–49)Liberal16.5 (4–31) |
| Niagara FallsHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 55%NDP 55 (38–69) · PC 31 (16–46) | NDP 55% | NDPNDPLikely | 92% | Likely | NDP54.9 (38–69)Progressive Conservative30.9 (16–46) |
| Niagara WestHamilton-Niagara · 2025: PC 51.1%PC 51 (36–66) · Lib 26 (13–41) | Progressive Conservative 51.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Progressive Conservative51.1 (36–66)Liberal26.3 (13–41)NDP13.1 (2–26) |
| Nickel BeltNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 48.4%NDP 49 (32–63) · PC 32 (16–48) | NDP 48.4% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP48.5 (32–63)Progressive Conservative31.9 (16–48)Liberal12.6 (1–26) |
| NipissingNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 54.8%PC 55 (39–71) · NDP 22 (8–35) | Progressive Conservative 54.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Progressive Conservative55.1 (39–71)NDP21.6 (8–35)Liberal14.3 (3–28) |
| Northumberland—Peterborough SouthCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 52.1%PC 52 (36–67) · Lib 34 (19–49) | Progressive Conservative 52.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 86% | Likely | Progressive Conservative51.6 (36–67)Liberal33.8 (19–49) |
| OakvilleGTA (905) · 2025: PC 48%PC 47 (32–62) · Lib 45 (30–59) | Progressive Conservative 48% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative47.3 (32–62)Liberal44.7 (30–59) |
| Oakville North—BurlingtonGTA (905) · 2025: PC 49.7%PC 49 (34–64) · Lib 42 (27–56) | Progressive Conservative 49.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Progressive Conservative49.2 (34–64)Liberal41.7 (27–56) |
| OrléansEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 54.2%Lib 60 (45–74) · PC 30 (16–45) | Liberal 54.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 95% | Solid | Liberal60.1 (45–74)Progressive Conservative30.2 (16–45) |
| OshawaGTA (905) · 2025: NDP 45.9%NDP 47 (31–60) · PC 38 (22–53) | NDP 45.9% | NDPNDPLeans | 73% | Leans | NDP46.5 (31–60)Progressive Conservative37.6 (22–53)Liberal10.6 (0–25) |
| Ottawa CentreEastern Ontario · 2025: NDP 55.7%NDP 58 (42–71) · Lib 23 (10–38) | NDP 55.7% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP58.2 (42–71)Liberal23.2 (10–38)Progressive Conservative12.6 (1–27) |
| Ottawa SouthEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 53.2%Lib 59 (44–74) · PC 21 (7–35) | Liberal 53.2% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal59.0 (44–74)Progressive Conservative20.8 (7–35)NDP14.1 (3–26) |
| Ottawa West—NepeanEastern Ontario · 2025: NDP 49.3%NDP 49 (33–63) · PC 25 (11–41) | NDP 49.3% | NDPNDPLikely | 91% | Likely | NDP49.3 (33–63)Progressive Conservative25.2 (11–41)Liberal19.5 (6–35) |
| Ottawa—VanierEastern Ontario · 2025: Lib 51.4%Lib 58 (43–72) · PC 19 (6–33) | Liberal 51.4% | LibLiberalSolid | 98% | Solid | Liberal57.7 (43–72)Progressive Conservative18.9 (6–33)NDP14.6 (4–27) |
| OxfordSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 55.3%PC 55 (39–70) · Lib 25 (12–39) | Progressive Conservative 55.3% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Progressive Conservative55.2 (39–70)Liberal24.6 (12–39) |
| Parkdale—High ParkToronto · 2025: NDP 45.4%NDP 49 (33–62) · Lib 30 (16–45) | NDP 45.4% | NDPNDPLikely | 88% | Likely | NDP48.8 (33–62)Liberal30.1 (16–45)Progressive Conservative13.9 (2–28) |
| Parry Sound—MuskokaNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 46.8%PC 46 (31–64) · Grn 40 (21–52) | Progressive Conservative 46.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 67% | Leans | Progressive Conservative46.3 (31–64)Green39.9 (21–52) |
| Perth—WellingtonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 47.4%PC 48 (32–63) · Lib 29 (16–44) | Progressive Conservative 47.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative47.5 (32–63)Liberal29.4 (16–44) |
| Peterborough—KawarthaCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 40.7%PC 41 (25–57) · Lib 38 (23–54) | Progressive Conservative 40.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative41.0 (25–57)Liberal37.9 (23–54)NDP13.5 (3–25) |
| Pickering—UxbridgeGTA (905) · 2025: PC 48.1%PC 48 (33–63) · Lib 41 (26–56) | Progressive Conservative 48.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Progressive Conservative47.8 (33–63)Liberal40.6 (26–56) |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—PembrokeEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 54.8%PC 58 (42–73) · Lib 22 (9–37) | Progressive Conservative 54.8% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative57.8 (42–73)Liberal22.3 (9–37)NDP10.9 (1–23) |
| Richmond HillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 55.4%PC 55 (39–69) · Lib 36 (22–50) | Progressive Conservative 55.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative54.7 (39–69)Liberal35.5 (22–50) |
| Sarnia—LambtonSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 51.3%PC 52 (36–67) · Lib 20 (8–34) | Progressive Conservative 51.3% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Progressive Conservative52.4 (36–67)Liberal20.3 (8–34)NDP16.7 (5–29) |
| Sault Ste. MarieNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 43.1%NDP 39 (19–55) · PC 24 (8–40) | Progressive Conservative 43.1% | NDPNDPgain from PCLeans | 71% | Leans | NDP39.1 (19–55)Progressive Conservative23.6 (8–40)Chris Scott20.8 (8–47)Liberal11.4 (1–25) |
| Scarborough CentreToronto · 2025: PC 44%PC 44 (29–59) · Lib 43 (28–58) | Progressive Conservative 44% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative43.9 (29–59)Liberal43.3 (28–58) |
| Scarborough NorthToronto · 2025: PC 53%PC 52 (37–67) · Lib 36 (21–51) | Progressive Conservative 53% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Progressive Conservative52.2 (37–67)Liberal35.8 (21–51) |
| Scarborough SouthwestToronto · 2025: NDP 42.9%NDP 47 (31–61) · PC 25 (11–40) | NDP 42.9% | NDPNDPLikely | 89% | Likely | NDP46.9 (31–61)Progressive Conservative25.0 (11–40)Liberal23.0 (10–38) |
| Scarborough—AgincourtToronto · 2025: PC 49.4%PC 49 (34–63) · Lib 43 (28–57) | Progressive Conservative 49.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 65% | Leans | Progressive Conservative48.5 (34–63)Liberal42.6 (28–57) |
| Scarborough—GuildwoodToronto · 2025: Lib 51%Lib 57 (42–71) · PC 33 (19–47) | Liberal 51% | LibLiberalLikely | 93% | Likely | Liberal57.2 (42–71)Progressive Conservative32.8 (19–47) |
| Scarborough—Rouge ParkToronto · 2025: PC 49.2%PC 49 (33–63) · Lib 41 (27–56) | Progressive Conservative 49.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 69% | Leans | Progressive Conservative48.6 (33–63)Liberal41.2 (27–56) |
| Simcoe NorthCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 51.4%PC 51 (35–67) · Lib 29 (15–44) | Progressive Conservative 51.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Progressive Conservative51.2 (35–67)Liberal29.1 (15–44) |
| Simcoe—GreyCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 53.6%PC 53 (37–68) · Lib 34 (20–49) | Progressive Conservative 53.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Progressive Conservative52.7 (37–68)Liberal33.7 (20–49) |
| Spadina—Fort YorkToronto · 2025: NDP 45%NDP 45 (29–59) · Lib 33 (19–49) | NDP 45% | NDPNDPLeans | 78% | Leans | NDP44.9 (29–59)Liberal32.9 (19–49)Progressive Conservative17.0 (4–31) |
| St. CatharinesHamilton-Niagara · 2025: NDP 42.1%NDP 43 (27–57) · PC 31 (17–47) | NDP 42.1% | NDPNDPLeans | 76% | Leans | NDP42.5 (27–57)Progressive Conservative31.2 (17–47)Liberal18.9 (6–34) |
| Stormont—Dundas—South GlengarryEastern Ontario · 2025: PC 61.6%PC 61 (45–76) · Lib 21 (8–36) | Progressive Conservative 61.6% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative61.1 (45–76)Liberal21.0 (8–36) |
| SudburyNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 46.7%NDP 47 (31–62) · PC 35 (19–51) | NDP 46.7% | NDPNDPLeans | 79% | Leans | NDP47.2 (31–62)Progressive Conservative34.6 (19–51)Liberal12.2 (1–25) |
| ThornhillGTA (905) · 2025: PC 64%PC 62 (47–76) · Lib 30 (16–44) | Progressive Conservative 64% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Progressive Conservative62.3 (47–76)Liberal29.8 (16–44) |
| Thunder Bay—AtikokanNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 45.7%PC 46 (30–62) · Lib 26 (13–40) | Progressive Conservative 45.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 87% | Likely | Progressive Conservative46.1 (30–62)Liberal26.1 (13–40)NDP21.9 (9–36) |
| Thunder Bay—Superior NorthNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 40.6%NDP 41 (25–56) · PC 30 (15–46) | NDP 40.6% | NDPNDPLeans | 72% | Leans | NDP41.1 (25–56)Progressive Conservative30.1 (15–46)Liberal22.8 (10–37) |
| Timiskaming—CochraneNorthern Ontario · 2025: NDP 44%NDP 45 (28–59) · PC 34 (19–50) | NDP 44% | NDPNDPLeans | 75% | Leans | NDP44.7 (28–59)Progressive Conservative33.9 (19–50)Liberal11.3 (1–25) |
| TimminsNorthern Ontario · 2025: PC 68.4%PC 68 (52–82) · NDP 17 (4–30) | Progressive Conservative 68.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Progressive Conservative67.7 (52–82)NDP16.6 (4–30) |
| Toronto CentreToronto · 2025: NDP 44.5%NDP 44 (28–58) · Lib 38 (23–53) | NDP 44.5% | NDPNDPLeans | 68% | Leans | NDP44.4 (28–58)Liberal37.6 (23–53)Progressive Conservative11.8 (0–26) |
| Toronto—DanforthToronto · 2025: NDP 60.4%NDP 59 (43–72) · Lib 23 (10–38) | NDP 60.4% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP59.3 (43–72)Liberal23.0 (10–38)Progressive Conservative11.9 (1–26) |
| Toronto—St. Paul'sToronto · 2025: Lib 40.9%Lib 51 (36–66) · NDP 25 (12–38) | Liberal 40.9% | LibLiberalLikely | 94% | Likely | Liberal51.4 (36–66)NDP24.8 (12–38)Progressive Conservative19.9 (7–34) |
| University—RosedaleToronto · 2025: NDP 45.5%NDP 45 (30–59) · Lib 32 (18–47) | NDP 45.5% | NDPNDPLeans | 80% | Leans | NDP45.3 (30–59)Liberal32.1 (18–47)Progressive Conservative16.9 (4–32) |
| Vaughan—WoodbridgeGTA (905) · 2025: PC 65.1%PC 64 (49–77) · Lib 28 (14–42) | Progressive Conservative 65.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative63.7 (49–77)Liberal27.8 (14–42) |
| WaterlooSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 50.2%NDP 50 (34–64) · PC 24 (10–39) | NDP 50.2% | NDPNDPLikely | 93% | Likely | NDP50.2 (34–64)Progressive Conservative24.0 (10–39)Liberal17.6 (5–32) |
| Wellington—Halton HillsCentral Ontario · 2025: PC 45.7%PC 50 (34–65) · Lib 27 (13–42) | Progressive Conservative 45.7% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Progressive Conservative49.5 (34–65)Liberal27.0 (13–42)Green14.3 (3–24) |
| WhitbyGTA (905) · 2025: PC 48.1%PC 48 (33–62) · Lib 41 (26–55) | Progressive Conservative 48.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | Progressive Conservative47.9 (33–62)Liberal40.7 (26–55) |
| WillowdaleToronto · 2025: PC 46.3%PC 46 (31–60) · Lib 45 (30–59) | Progressive Conservative 46.3% | PCProgressive ConservativeToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | Progressive Conservative46.0 (31–60)Liberal45.2 (30–59) |
| Windsor WestSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: NDP 52.1%NDP 52 (36–65) · PC 35 (20–50) | NDP 52.1% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP51.7 (36–65)Progressive Conservative35.0 (20–50) |
| Windsor—TecumsehSouthwestern Ontario · 2025: PC 48.2%PC 49 (33–64) · NDP 27 (13–40) | Progressive Conservative 48.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 92% | Likely | Progressive Conservative48.9 (33–64)NDP26.7 (13–40)Liberal16.2 (4–30) |
| York CentreToronto · 2025: PC 54.1%PC 53 (38–67) · Lib 37 (22–51) | Progressive Conservative 54.1% | PCProgressive ConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Progressive Conservative53.2 (38–67)Liberal36.6 (22–51) |
| York South—WestonToronto · 2025: PC 35.2%PC 41 (26–56) · Lib 34 (20–48) | Progressive Conservative 35.2% | PCProgressive ConservativeLeans | 67% | Leans | Progressive Conservative40.9 (26–56)Liberal33.7 (20–48)NDP20.0 (8–33) |
| York—SimcoeGTA (905) · 2025: PC 59.4%PC 62 (47–76) · Lib 24 (10–38) | Progressive Conservative 59.4% | PCProgressive ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | Progressive Conservative61.7 (47–76)Liberal23.6 (10–38) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 42.4 | 40.2–44.6 | −1.5 |
| Liberal | 32.3 | 28.5–36.1 | +2.3 |
| NDP | 17.0 | 16.1–17.8 | −0.3 |
| Green | 5.1 | 4.2–6.0 | +0.1 |
| Others | 3.2 | −0.7 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 22 Feb 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 10 Feb 2026, in points.
Polls included (27)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb | Liaison StrategiesNew | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 40 | 36 | 17 | 5 |
| 10 Feb | Abacus Data | 1,001 | ±3.1 | 44 | 30 | 16 | 6 |
| 24 Jan | Pallas Data | 1,015 | ±3.1 | 43 | 30 | 18 | 5 |
| 21 Jan | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 42 | 35 | 17 | 3 |
| 13 Jan | Abacus Data | 1,006 | ±3.1 | 48 | 22 | 19 | 6 |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 44 | 35 | 16 | 3 |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 723 | ±3.0 | 41 | 28 | 23 | 4 |
| 15 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,077 | ±3.0 | 45 | 28 | 18 | 6 |
| 7 Nov 2025 | North Poll | 742 | – | 46 | 29 | 17 | 4 |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 51 | 23 | 19 | 3 |
17 earlier polls
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2025 | Leger | 1,052 | ±3.1 | 44 | 32 | 13 | 7 |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 51 | 25 | 15 | 5 |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 800 | ±3.4 | 47 | 33 | 15 | 3 |
| 13 Oct 2025 | Relay Strategies | 1,268 | – | 44 | 29 | 17 | 6 |
| 18 Sep 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 958 | ±3.2 | 48 | 29 | 14 | 3 |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,021 | ±3.1 | 52 | 24 | 12 | 6 |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 935 | ±3.0 | 45 | 25 | 22 | 4 |
| 4 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,026 | ±3.1 | 45 | 26 | 17 | 7 |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,037 | ±3.0 | 53 | 27 | 12 | 5 |
| 14 Aug 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 800 | ±3.4 | 44 | 35 | 15 | 3 |
| 15 Jul 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 50 | 28 | 13 | 6 |
| 29 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 1,080 | ±3.0 | 43 | 29 | 21 | 6 |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 923 | ±3.2 | 41 | 32 | 17 | 3 |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 49 | 28 | 14 | 5 |
| 25 May 2025 | Leger | 1,025 | ±3.1 | 45 | 32 | 15 | 5 |
| 9 May 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 46 | 36 | 13 | 2 |
| 26 Mar 2025 | Campaign Research | 1,672 | ±2.2 | 46 | 24 | 18 | 8 |
Ontario polls published since the 2025 election, up to this projection, from the site’s Ontario polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2025 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 63 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 46 projections, to 19 September 2026, were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | OthOther | PCProgressive Conservative maj. | LibLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 64 | 29 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 54% | 2% | 44% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 64 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 56% | 3% | 41% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies | 64 | 30 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 54% | 3% | 43% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | Pallas Data | 58 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 36% | 3% | 61% |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 56 | 34 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 31% | 4% | 65% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | EKOS | 61 | 30 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 46% | 2% | 52% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | Abacus Data | 62 | 31 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 47% | 3% | 50% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Abacus Data | 61 | 32 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 44% | 3% | 53% |
39 earlier projections
| Projection | PCProgressive Conservative | LibLiberal | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | OthOther | PCProgressive Conservative maj. | LibLiberal maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026 | EKOS | 57 | 34 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 34% | 4% | 62% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 56 | 38 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 32% | 6% | 62% |
| 20 May 2026 | Abacus Data | 61 | 33 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 45% | 4% | 51% |
| 16 May 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 58 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 37% | 5% | 58% |
| 11 May 2026 | Leger | 59 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 39% | 4% | 57% |
| 7 May 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 58 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 37% | 4% | 59% |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 59 | 35 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 40% | 4% | 56% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 62 | 32 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 49% | 3% | 47% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Abacus Data | 63 | 31 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 52% | 3% | 44% |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Pallas Data | 65 | 29 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 60% | 2% | 38% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Abacus Data | 65 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 58% | 3% | 39% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 65 | 31 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 59% | 3% | 37% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Abacus Data, Ipsos | 69 | 28 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 71% | 2% | 27% |
| 22 Feb 2026 (this page) | Liaison Strategies | 70 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 75% | 2% | 23% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Abacus Data | 75 | 22 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Pallas Data | 75 | 21 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 88% | 1% | 11% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 76 | 20 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 90% | 1% | 9% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Abacus Data | 81 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 96% | <1% | 3% |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 75 | 21 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 87% | 1% | 12% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 77 | 18 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 92% | 1% | 7% |
| 15 Nov 2025 | Pallas Data | 80 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | North Poll | 81 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Abacus Data | 81 | 17 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Leger | 80 | 19 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 94% | 1% | 6% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies | 81 | 18 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 13 Oct 2025 | Relay Strategies | 80 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 18 Sep 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 83 | 16 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 96% | <1% | 3% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Abacus Data | 83 | 16 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 97% | <1% | 3% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 80 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | Pallas Data | 81 | 18 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Abacus Data | 82 | 19 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 95% | 1% | 5% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 75 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 85% | 2% | 14% |
| 15 Jul 2025 | Abacus Data | 77 | 20 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 91% | 1% | 8% |
| 29 Jun 2025 | Pallas Data | 74 | 22 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 85% | 1% | 14% |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 75 | 23 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 86% | 1% | 13% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Abacus Data | 79 | 21 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 92% | 1% | 7% |
| 25 May 2025 | Leger | 75 | 26 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 83% | 2% | 15% |
| 9 May 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 75 | 26 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 83% | 2% | 14% |
| 26 Mar 2025 | Campaign Research | 81 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 96% | <1% | 3% |
How the projection works
The projection starts from the 2025 result in each of the 124 ridings. It moves each riding by the change in each party’s share of the site’s polling average since that election, the same number of points everywhere (a uniform swing). Before the ridings are adjusted to reproduce the average, a party gains 6 points where its member runs again, and 8 more where that member was first elected in 2025 or at a by-election since, whose personal vote the 2025 result does not yet hold; it loses 2 where its member is not running. Until retirements are announced, every member is presumed to run again. Two independents, Bobbi Ann Brady and Chris Scott, keep part of their own 2025 vote.
These rules and their sizes come from ten provincial elections from 2020 to 2025. With each election scored using sizes fitted on the other nine, the projected leader won 88.7% of ridings in 2022 and 90.3% in 2025; keeping every riding with the party that won it last time won 88.7% and 92.7%. The province-wide swing of the other projections did worse in both (82.3% and 82.3%).
Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors and riding errors of the size seen in those elections. Candidates’ personal appeal beyond incumbency, local campaigns and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.