Liberal Party On Ice

It’s January in Ottawa and it’s freezing cold. Parliament is on break and the next major political event scheduled is the federal budget. The Ottawa Convention Centre is a warm place and there’s not much else to do.

For a party in third place in the House of Commons, Liberal organizers will tell you they are pleased by 3200 registered delegates who are attending their biennial convention in this temperate refuge from their harsh environs outside of these walls.

There is also a large contingent of media that have gathered to huddle with the Liberals. Perhaps there really is nothing else to do, or that the Liberal Party is on the verge of a national comeback, or they’re doing something really important like electing a new policy chair and party president. Or something.

So why is there so much interest in the national media for the down-and-out Grits? Why is the meager battle-royale of party presidential candidates Sheila Copps vs. Mike Crawley garnering more press than say the ongoing leadership race of the Official Opposition NDP? What’s the big fuss?

“The death of a party is always news and seeing a zombie rise would also be a big story,” Sally Housser, deputy director of the NDP, rationalized tongue-in-cheek.

Yet, I’d like to offer an alternative analogy.

The Liberal Party is the Toronto Maple Leafs of Canadian politics. You’ve always heard your parents talk about their glory days, even your grandparents will tell you about the mighty unstoppable Leafs. Yet the team hasn’t won in a while and fans suggest in response that it’s the “rebuilding” phase. They’re the Central Canadian Establishment’s hometown favourites, and yes, the CBC swears that this year there will be a parade down Yonge street.

Will Liberals get boarded when they leave the convention for having a weak game with little to show for their efforts? Or will the media allow this storied team skate because everyone likes a good comeback?

Liberal convention 2012

Ottawa has been covered by a fresh blanket of snow this second week of January giving the nation’s capital an idyllic calm as delegates, press, and observers gather for the Liberal binennial convention.

The party was crushed in the last general election that saw the ascendance of the first majority Conservative government in 23 years. And for a party that has held government 4 out of 5 years of the past 100, the Liberals saw many of their own littered on the landscape — the most disasterous defeat of that party in its history.

Serious and sober discussions are expected as Grits assess party administration, party leadership, membership, fundraising, and policy.

There are also some old scores to settle that are already starting to surface as a contentious race for party president is underway that is already promising to reopen old wounds.

Policy is also going to be particularly challenging as a party looks not only to oppose the current administration, but to offer its own plan to the electorate. Will Liberals end up discussing policies that widely appeal to Canadians? Will we see the next grand Liberal vision for Canada emerge? Or will we see the old standbys discussed to reaffirm what has defined the party in the past? Will the Liberal policy primarily focus outward or internally on how the party conducts its own affairs?

The party is also assessing the monumental challenge of its own finances. To appeal to the electorate is a far-off challenge. First, the party must grow its own numbers and rescue its balance from the red. The process of politicking is one discussion the Liberals must have this weekend in order to ensure their survival. Liberals are looking to tap into US Democratic methods for fundraising and building winning membership networks.

The party is describing this weekend’s effort as one of rebuilding, renewal, and reboot, however, Liberal troubles run deep and are pervasive through every thread of its institution. The Liberals do face a challenge to avoid reducing its partisans to rehash old scores, to stay away from reusing ineffective tactics to raise money and increase membership and to resist recycling old policies that don’t appeal to an electorate that has changed since the days of Trudeau, Turner, Chretien and Martin.

When the snow of this weekend melts, will the Liberal Party see the first sprouts of its renewal, or will old and wasted remnants of days past remain as Canada’s former Natural Governing Party hunkers down for a long and cold winter?

State of Twitter

Treasury Board President Tony Clement recently remarked that Twitter is important in the public policy process. The Parry Sound-Muskoka MP has discovered its utility in his own branding; he is often cited by Hill reporters and other observers alike as the politician making the most sincere effort at using the medium to engage with the political twittersphere.

But are they his constituents? In politics, anyone who has skillfully run a successful election campaign will tell you that there are two main objectives: finding out who would vote for your candidate (voter ID) and getting these identified voters to actually vote (get out the vote). Does Twitter do either of these things?

To be sure, Twitter’s strength is in amplification. Like blogging in the middle of the last decade, the average elector is not getting their news from Twitter but those that pen the articles that this elector reads, are consuming as many tweets as they can. Twitter’s political strength in terms of votes is changing the direction of discussion among opinion leaders and those that set the narrative.

During the last Ontario provincial campaign, PC, Liberal and NDP war rooms took to Twitter often with inconsequential results. Mid-level war room staffers in their early 20s tweeting about smart-metering and tax cuts on home heating came off as insincere. Reporters had already flagged and dismissed many of these partisans as just that and if the staffers were unknown quantities, they were largely unsearched, non-retweeted and thus unamplified. Better to spend one’s time knocking on doors or making phone calls to identify hard constituent data rather than the pseudonymous. Politically, Twitter is better used to challenge preconceptions. This is done most effectively when the source is trusted and high value. And as with anything else social, authenticity matters.

Watching the Canadian twittersphere for any length of time it is easy to see that its participants mostly lean left. In the United States, one can see that a good number lean right. Why is this so? When the champion of one’s ideology occupies the government pulpit, the megaphone of office is sufficient for many. However, getting the message out in opposition is always a challenge. When mainstream options aren’t available, creative use of alternative methods becomes a necessity. When in opposition, partisans will occupy alternative media. It was true for the Canadian Conservative blogosphere when the Conservatives were in opposition; it is true of this country’s Progressive twittersphere today.

Another theory may also prove supplementarily useful. It is no secret to us conservatives that engagement with non-political but ideologically-aligned people remains one of our greatest challenges; most of our people just want to be left alone. For the left, solutions to grievances are rooted in state solutions. For the right, most look to themselves or families for answers. Advocacy and appeal for government solutions (or criticism for a lack of them) is typical of the left. There are right-wingers on Twitter, however, as citizens who look outside government for solutions, they are more likely tweeting about the hockey game or Dancing With The Stars than about the merit of cuts coming from Clement’s office. Further, Twitter is more likely to be used by younger people and by those with more free time (students and the unemployed). These demographics are also more likely dependent on — and seek fulfillment from — government assistance.

The result? Twitter viewed politically has a leftward bias in Canada. For better or worse, that’s just the way it is. For truly social-media savvy reporters, this bias is understood rather than taken as a true cross-section of Canadian life. Twitter does provide an exciting new medium for direct participation and feedback in our democracy. However, taken as a poll, it is an incomplete picture. If Twitter were reflective of reality, it would have been nationalized as a strategic resource long ago.