Campaign secrets

During the election, there was much talk of the Liberal war room mole and the leaks which came out from the Liberal war room which were easily picked up by Conservative strategists and the media. Granted, the mole did exist and leaked key policy announcements to the press one day early and leaked the entire Liberal platform to the Western Standard. However, there was another source of Liberal leaks that provided a lot of material to the Conservative campaign.

First let’s take a look at a satellite image of downtown Ottawa.

satellite-ottawa-warrooms.jpg

The Conservative war room was located in the Burnside building at 151 Slater st. and the Liberal war room was located just around the corner on Metcalfe. Yes, just around the corner (about 200m according to Google Earth).

satellite-warrooms-closeup.jpg

On the corner of Metcalfe and Slater is a Starbucks which was often frequented by Liberal war room staffers in need of some java and by their Conservative counterparts who liked to sit around and “read” the newspaper (while eavesdropping on the competition). Granted, it was a good place for bloggers to pick up some tips too.

metcalfe-starbucks.jpg

Cabinet predictions

I’m going to take a shot at predicting PM-elect Stephen Harper’s cabinet. The following is partly an indication of what I think should happen and partly what I believe will happen.

*Prime Minister – Stephen Harper
*Deputy PM – Lawrence Cannon
Justice and Emergency Preparedness – Peter MacKay
*Foreign Affairs – Monte Solberg
*Defence – Gordon O’Connor
Transport – James Moore
Finance – Jim Flaherty
Revenue – Garth Turner
Intergovernmental Affairs – Rona Ambrose
Environment – Bob Mills
Indian Affairs – Jim Prentice
International Trade – Maxime Bernier
*Fisheries – Loyola Hearn
*Leader of the Government (HoC) – Jay Hill
Health – Tony Clement
Heritage – Bev Oda
*Veterens Affairs – Laurie Hawn
Leader of the Government (Senate) – Hugh Segal Marjorie Lebreton
Agriculture – Gerry Ritz
President of the Treasury Board – Jason Kenney
*Minister of the Econ. Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec and Minister responsible for the Francophonie – Josee Verner
ACOA – Gerald Keddy
Human Resources – John Baird
Attorney General – Vic Toews
Industry – Rob Nicholson
Democratic Reform – Scott Reid
Sport – Gary Goodyear
Internal Trade – Christian Paradis
North American relations – Stockwell Day
*Immigration – Diane Ablonczy

Speaker – Chuck Strahl

(*) Indicates my most confident predictions.

Agree/Disagree? Do you have any additions (I’ve skipped a few ministries) Put your suggestions/corrections in the comments.

Thoughts about last night

The main story is that the Conservative Party is back in Quebec and in a big way. Both the Bloc and the Liberals suffered losses while the Tories beat some of the more optimistic predictions and took 10 seats. This is a great base for the Conservative Party to build upon. Stephen Harper and Jean Charest should get to work as soon as possible to build the case for this classical federalist model that they’re calling “open federalism”. Stephen Harper should take Quebeckers sanctioning of the Liberal Party and make the case for unity through respect.

The other big story? The West is in. The axis of power and influence in this country hasn’t changed over night, but it is bound to become different as Conservatives cut off Liberal ties to patronage and do their best to stack the Privy Council Office with their own people. Most importantly, now that the West “is in”, we have a chance to see a truly pan-Canadian government and power structure as every region of the country has a significant stake in Harper’s new government. Regional exclusion will not (and cannot) exist within a Harper government. Especially with the concept of open federalism, even Saskatchewan NDP premier Lorne Calvert endorsed Harper’s plan for provincial balance.

Speaking of the CBC, when they were cycling through the ridings last night, why even when no polls were reporting was the Liberal candidate ranked #1 (even against an incumbent from another party)? So much for the so-called honeymoon period.

And now, while watching Newsworld am I getting the feeling like I’m watching a somber retrospective of election night (what does a Calgary power centre mean? Then a sad look at the rise and fall of Paul Martin). CTV’s about to have a lot more access.

How will Stephen Harper’s minority conservative government survive? I believe that they’ll hold on longer than Paul Martin’s Liberal government. First of all, Canadians realize that this Parliament is now a group effort among all parties. Governance will be done on an issue-by-issue basis. The Conservatives will come out strong with a very successful drive on pushing through the Accountability Act. All parties will likely support the policy and members that do not will be viewed with suspicion especially after constructive discussion/amendments in committee.

The theme that dogged Paul Martin’s minority Parliament was the Gomery inquiry and corruption. Stephen Harper has the advantage of riding the opposite track of that theme. Canadians saw government accountability as the #1 election issue and there is little doubt that Stephen Harper will deliver forcefully on it.

Law and order will also be an early key accomplishment of Stephen Harper’s government. Even Jack Layton’s NDP hugged the centre proposing harsher sentences for violent/gun crimes. We’ll likely see amendments that address “causes” of crime which will see measures such as increased community policing (the capital of which could be drawn from the gun registry).

It’s a new day in what should hopefully be a new era in Canadian politics. The Liberals have been trending towards defeat since they barely held on in 2004. Now as they face bankruptcy and what should be a brutal leadership race, the Tories have a real opportunity to build upon their success especially as Stephen Harper presents his case for a strong mandate by restoring Canadians faith in good government.