Alberta seat projection, 12 February 2026
As of 12 February 2026, from 28 polls
No Alberta election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls, on the 87 ridings of the 2023 election. Each riding’s 2023 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 16 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 12 February 2026.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the UCP win a median of 51 seats (90% range 36–65) and a majority in 79%; the NDP 36 seats (90% range 21–51) and a majority in 20%. No party wins a majority in 2%.
United Conservative majority
79%
Most seats in 79% of simulations
NDP majority
20%
Most seats in 20% of simulations
No majority
2%
13 ridings with no party above 60%
44 for a majority
United Conservative
51 seats (36–65) · majority 79%
51 seats (36–65) · majority 79%
NDP
36 seats (21–51) · majority 20%
36 seats (21–51) · majority 20%
Others
0 seats (0–1)
0 seats (0–1)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 44 of 87 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.
Seat distributions
Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
44 for a majority
United Conservative
Median 51, 90%: 36–65
Majority in 79%
Most frequent: 52 (4.8%)
NDP
Median 36, 90%: 21–51
Majority in 20%
Most frequent: 34 (5.0%)
Others
Median 0, 90%: 0–1
Most frequent: 0 (54.2%)
| Party | Median seats | 90% range | Most frequent | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Conservative | 51 | 36 to 65 | 52 seats, 4.8% of simulations | 79% |
| NDP | 36 | 21 to 51 | 34 seats, 5.0% of simulations | 20% |
| Others | 0 | 0 to 1 | 0 seats, 54.2% of simulations | <1% |
What changed
New poll
- Mainstreet Research, fieldwork to 12 Feb 2026, 1,504 respondentsUnited Conservative 48 · NDP 40
Change since 26 Jan 2026
- Median seats: United Conservative +1, NDP −1.
- Chance of a majority, in points: United Conservative +2, NDP −2; no majority 0.
- Projected leader changed in 1 riding: Calgary-Glenmore (NDP to United Conservative).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| United Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 26 | 8 |
| Likely 80–95% | 11 | 15 |
| Leans 60–80% | 7 | 7 |
| Toss-up <60% | 13 | |
Alberta
Calgary
Edmonton
Seats changing hands
Won in 2023Projected
UCPUnited Conservative49
NDPNDP38
UCPUnited Conservative44
NDPNDP30
Toss-upToss-up13
| Party | 2023 | Projected | Gains | Losses | Toss-ups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCPUnited Conservative | 49 | 44 | – | – | 5 |
| NDPNDP | 38 | 30 | – | – | 8 |
| Toss-up | 13 | ||||
The path to a majority
United Conservative44th-best riding: Calgary-Cross, 61% · chance of a majority 79%
NDP44th-best riding: Calgary-East, 36% · chance of a majority 20%
All 87 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2023 results.
A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2023, toss-ups included.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie-CochraneCalgary · 2023: UCP 60.1%Peter Guthrie 34 (16–69) · NDP 32 (13–48) | United Conservative 60.1% | Peter Guthriegain from UCPToss-up | 43% | Toss-up | Peter Guthrie34.0 (16–69)NDP32.2 (13–48)United Conservative32.1 (13–48) |
| Airdrie-EastCalgary · 2023: UCP 62%UCP 57 (42–71) · NDP 32 (18–45) | United Conservative 62% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | United Conservative56.6 (42–71)NDP31.6 (18–45)Other11.5 (3–22) |
| Athabasca-Barrhead-WestlockRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 74.3%UCP 68 (54–82) · NDP 23 (10–36) | United Conservative 74.3% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative68.0 (54–82)NDP22.6 (10–36) |
| Banff-KananaskisRest of Alberta · 2023: NDP 49.7%UCP 44 (30–59) · NDP 44 (30–59) | NDP 49.7% | NDPNDPToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | United Conservative44.3 (30–59)NDP44.3 (30–59)Other11.0 (2–21) |
| Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. PaulRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 75.5%UCP 69 (55–83) · NDP 21 (10–35) | United Conservative 75.5% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative69.1 (55–83)NDP21.4 (10–35) |
| Brooks-Medicine HatRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 66.5%UCP 60 (46–74) · NDP 24 (12–38) | United Conservative 66.5% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | United Conservative60.4 (46–74)NDP24.0 (12–38)Other15.1 (5–26) |
| Calgary-AcadiaCalgary · 2023: NDP 48.6%UCP 45 (30–59) · NDP 44 (29–59) | NDP 48.6% | UCPUnited Conservativegain from NDPToss-up | 52% | Toss-up | United Conservative44.5 (30–59)NDP43.8 (29–59)Other11.4 (3–22) |
| Calgary-BeddingtonCalgary · 2023: NDP 49.7%NDP 45 (30–59) · UCP 43 (29–58) | NDP 49.7% | NDPNDPToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | NDP44.5 (30–59)United Conservative42.8 (29–58)Other12.4 (4–23) |
| Calgary-BowCalgary · 2023: UCP 49.7%UCP 45 (31–60) · NDP 43 (28–57) | United Conservative 49.7% | UCPUnited ConservativeToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | United Conservative45.3 (31–60)NDP42.5 (28–57)Other11.9 (3–22) |
| Calgary-BuffaloCalgary · 2023: NDP 63%NDP 57 (42–71) · UCP 32 (18–46) | NDP 63% | NDPNDPLikely | 93% | Likely | NDP56.5 (42–71)United Conservative31.8 (18–46)Other11.3 (3–22) |
| Calgary-CrossCalgary · 2023: UCP 50.2%UCP 46 (31–60) · NDP 42 (28–56) | United Conservative 50.2% | UCPUnited ConservativeLeans | 61% | Leans | United Conservative45.7 (31–60)NDP41.8 (28–56)Other12.2 (3–22) |
| Calgary-CurrieCalgary · 2023: NDP 54.8%NDP 49 (34–64) · UCP 37 (23–52) | NDP 54.8% | NDPNDPLeans | 77% | Leans | NDP48.9 (34–64)United Conservative37.3 (23–52)Other13.3 (4–24) |
| Calgary-EastCalgary · 2023: UCP 50.2%UCP 46 (32–60) · NDP 40 (26–55) | United Conservative 50.2% | UCPUnited ConservativeLeans | 63% | Leans | United Conservative45.7 (32–60)NDP40.4 (26–55)Other13.5 (4–24) |
| Calgary-EdgemontCalgary · 2023: NDP 49.3%NDP 44 (30–58) · UCP 44 (30–58) | NDP 49.3% | NDPNDPToss-up | 50% | Toss-up | NDP44.0 (30–58)United Conservative43.9 (30–58)Other11.6 (3–22) |
| Calgary-ElbowCalgary · 2023: NDP 49%NDP 44 (29–59) · UCP 42 (27–56) | NDP 49% | NDPNDPToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | NDP43.7 (29–59)United Conservative41.8 (27–56)Other14.1 (5–25) |
| Calgary-FalconridgeCalgary · 2023: NDP 56.4%NDP 52 (37–66) · UCP 37 (23–51) | NDP 56.4% | NDPNDPLikely | 82% | Likely | NDP51.5 (37–66)United Conservative36.8 (23–51)Other11.3 (3–21) |
| Calgary-Fish CreekCalgary · 2023: UCP 53.8%UCP 49 (34–64) · NDP 39 (25–54) | United Conservative 53.8% | UCPUnited ConservativeLeans | 73% | Leans | United Conservative49.1 (34–64)NDP39.3 (25–54)Other11.3 (3–22) |
| Calgary-FoothillsCalgary · 2023: NDP 49.9%NDP 45 (31–60) · UCP 45 (31–59) | NDP 49.9% | NDPNDPToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | NDP45.2 (31–60)United Conservative44.9 (31–59) |
| Calgary-GlenmoreCalgary · 2023: NDP 49.3%UCP 45 (30–59) · NDP 44 (30–59) | NDP 49.3% | UCPUnited Conservativegain from NDPToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | United Conservative44.6 (30–59)NDP44.2 (30–59)Other10.7 (2–20) |
| Calgary-HaysCalgary · 2023: UCP 55.6%UCP 51 (36–65) · NDP 38 (24–53) | United Conservative 55.6% | UCPUnited ConservativeLeans | 79% | Leans | United Conservative50.6 (36–65)NDP37.8 (24–53)Other11.2 (3–21) |
| Calgary-KleinCalgary · 2023: NDP 50.9%NDP 46 (31–60) · UCP 43 (29–57) | NDP 50.9% | NDPNDPToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | NDP45.5 (31–60)United Conservative42.6 (29–57)Other11.5 (3–21) |
| Calgary-LougheedCalgary · 2023: UCP 56.4%UCP 51 (37–66) · NDP 36 (22–50) | United Conservative 56.4% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 84% | Likely | United Conservative51.4 (37–66)NDP36.0 (22–50)Other12.3 (4–22) |
| Calgary-McCallCalgary · 2023: NDP 58%NDP 52 (38–66) · UCP 39 (25–53) | NDP 58% | NDPNDPLikely | 81% | Likely | NDP51.9 (38–66)United Conservative38.5 (25–53) |
| Calgary-Mountain ViewCalgary · 2023: NDP 64.7%NDP 58 (44–72) · UCP 30 (17–45) | NDP 64.7% | NDPNDPSolid | 95% | Solid | NDP58.0 (44–72)United Conservative30.2 (17–45)Other11.3 (3–21) |
| Calgary-NorthCalgary · 2023: UCP 50.4%UCP 46 (32–61) · NDP 45 (30–59) | United Conservative 50.4% | UCPUnited ConservativeToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | United Conservative46.0 (32–61)NDP44.6 (30–59) |
| Calgary-North EastCalgary · 2023: NDP 55%NDP 50 (35–64) · UCP 41 (27–56) | NDP 55% | NDPNDPLeans | 71% | Leans | NDP49.5 (35–64)United Conservative41.3 (27–56) |
| Calgary-North WestCalgary · 2023: UCP 48.3%UCP 44 (30–59) · NDP 43 (28–57) | United Conservative 48.3% | UCPUnited ConservativeToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | United Conservative44.3 (30–59)NDP42.9 (28–57)Other12.5 (4–23) |
| Calgary-PeiganCalgary · 2023: UCP 55%UCP 50 (36–65) · NDP 38 (24–52) | United Conservative 55% | UCPUnited ConservativeLeans | 80% | Leans | United Conservative50.2 (36–65)NDP37.5 (24–52)Other12.0 (3–22) |
| Calgary-ShawCalgary · 2023: UCP 56.3%UCP 51 (37–66) · NDP 38 (24–53) | United Conservative 56.3% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 80% | Likely | United Conservative51.4 (37–66)NDP38.2 (24–53)Other10.0 (2–20) |
| Calgary-South EastCalgary · 2023: UCP 58.8%UCP 54 (39–68) · NDP 35 (21–49) | United Conservative 58.8% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | United Conservative53.6 (39–68)NDP35.3 (21–49)Other10.7 (3–21) |
| Calgary-VarsityCalgary · 2023: NDP 58.3%NDP 52 (37–66) · UCP 37 (23–52) | NDP 58.3% | NDPNDPLikely | 84% | Likely | NDP52.1 (37–66)United Conservative37.1 (23–52)Other10.2 (2–20) |
| Calgary-WestCalgary · 2023: UCP 56.7%UCP 52 (37–67) · NDP 37 (23–52) | United Conservative 56.7% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 82% | Likely | United Conservative51.8 (37–67)NDP37.4 (23–52)Other10.4 (2–20) |
| CamroseRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 63.4%UCP 63 (49–77) · NDP 26 (14–40) | United Conservative 63.4% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | United Conservative63.4 (49–77)NDP26.1 (14–40)Other10.1 (2–20) |
| Cardston-SiksikaRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 74.1%UCP 72 (58–85) · NDP 16 (6–29) | United Conservative 74.1% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative72.1 (58–85)NDP16.4 (6–29)Other11.2 (3–21) |
| Central Peace-NotleyRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 77.7%UCP 71 (57–84) · NDP 16 (5–29) | United Conservative 77.7% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative70.9 (57–84)NDP15.9 (5–29)Other12.7 (4–23) |
| Chestermere-StrathmoreCalgary · 2023: UCP 69.7%UCP 64 (50–78) · NDP 25 (12–38) | United Conservative 69.7% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative64.4 (50–78)NDP24.8 (12–38)Other10.5 (2–20) |
| Cypress-Medicine HatRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 61.9%UCP 57 (42–71) · NDP 31 (18–46) | United Conservative 61.9% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 93% | Likely | United Conservative56.6 (42–71)NDP31.1 (18–46)Other11.8 (3–22) |
| Drayton Valley-DevonEdmonton · 2023: UCP 73.7%UCP 67 (53–81) · NDP 20 (8–32) | United Conservative 73.7% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative67.1 (53–81)NDP19.6 (8–32)Other12.9 (4–23) |
| Drumheller-StettlerRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 82.1%UCP 75 (61–87) · Oth 13 (4–23) | United Conservative 82.1% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative75.0 (61–87)Other12.5 (4–23)NDP12.2 (2–24) |
| Edmonton-Beverly-ClareviewEdmonton · 2023: NDP 57.7%NDP 52 (38–67) · UCP 36 (22–50) | NDP 57.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP52.4 (38–67)United Conservative35.9 (22–50)Other11.3 (3–21) |
| Edmonton-Castle DownsEdmonton · 2023: NDP 55.7%NDP 50 (35–64) · UCP 37 (23–52) | NDP 55.7% | NDPNDPLeans | 79% | Leans | NDP49.7 (35–64)United Conservative36.9 (23–52)Other13.0 (4–23) |
| Edmonton-City CentreEdmonton · 2023: NDP 74.9%NDP 67 (53–81) · UCP 20 (9–34) | NDP 74.9% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP67.3 (53–81)United Conservative20.4 (9–34)Other11.9 (3–22) |
| Edmonton-DecoreEdmonton · 2023: NDP 52.8%NDP 47 (33–62) · UCP 38 (24–52) | NDP 52.8% | NDPNDPLeans | 74% | Leans | NDP47.2 (33–62)United Conservative37.5 (24–52)Other14.9 (5–26) |
| Edmonton-EllerslieEdmonton · 2023: NDP 61.7%NDP 56 (41–70) · UCP 34 (20–48) | NDP 61.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 91% | Likely | NDP55.5 (41–70)United Conservative33.7 (20–48)Other10.5 (2–20) |
| Edmonton-GlenoraEdmonton · 2023: NDP 69.2%NDP 62 (47–76) · UCP 26 (13–40) | NDP 69.2% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP62.1 (47–76)United Conservative25.7 (13–40)Other11.8 (3–22) |
| Edmonton-Gold BarEdmonton · 2023: NDP 69.5%NDP 63 (48–77) · UCP 26 (13–40) | NDP 69.5% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP63.4 (48–77)United Conservative25.8 (13–40)Other10.5 (2–20) |
| Edmonton-Highlands-NorwoodEdmonton · 2023: NDP 71.5%NDP 64 (50–78) · UCP 23 (11–37) | NDP 71.5% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP64.1 (50–78)United Conservative23.0 (11–37)Other12.4 (3–23) |
| Edmonton-ManningEdmonton · 2023: NDP 59.8%NDP 54 (39–68) · UCP 35 (21–50) | NDP 59.8% | NDPNDPLikely | 88% | Likely | NDP53.6 (39–68)United Conservative35.1 (21–50)Other10.9 (3–21) |
| Edmonton-McClungEdmonton · 2023: NDP 59.5%NDP 54 (40–69) · UCP 35 (21–49) | NDP 59.5% | NDPNDPLikely | 89% | Likely | NDP54.3 (40–69)United Conservative34.9 (21–49)Other10.3 (2–20) |
| Edmonton-MeadowsEdmonton · 2023: NDP 62.6%NDP 56 (41–71) · UCP 33 (20–48) | NDP 62.6% | NDPNDPLikely | 92% | Likely | NDP56.2 (41–71)United Conservative33.1 (20–48)Other10.3 (2–20) |
| Edmonton-Mill WoodsEdmonton · 2023: NDP 61.7%NDP 55 (40–70) · UCP 35 (21–50) | NDP 61.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 89% | Likely | NDP55.4 (40–70)United Conservative35.2 (21–50) |
| Edmonton-North WestEdmonton · 2023: NDP 59.7%NDP 54 (39–68) · UCP 35 (21–49) | NDP 59.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 87% | Likely | NDP53.5 (39–68)United Conservative35.0 (21–49)Other11.1 (3–21) |
| Edmonton-RiverviewEdmonton · 2023: NDP 67.1%NDP 60 (45–74) · UCP 27 (14–41) | NDP 67.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP60.0 (45–74)United Conservative26.5 (14–41)Other13.0 (4–24) |
| Edmonton-RutherfordEdmonton · 2023: NDP 65.1%NDP 58 (44–73) · UCP 29 (16–43) | NDP 65.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 96% | Solid | NDP58.3 (44–73)United Conservative29.0 (16–43)Other12.1 (3–23) |
| Edmonton-SouthEdmonton · 2023: NDP 59%NDP 53 (38–67) · UCP 36 (22–51) | NDP 59% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP52.9 (38–67)United Conservative36.2 (22–51)Other10.5 (2–20) |
| Edmonton-South WestEdmonton · 2023: NDP 56.5%NDP 51 (36–66) · UCP 39 (25–53) | NDP 56.5% | NDPNDPLeans | 78% | Leans | NDP50.7 (36–66)United Conservative38.6 (25–53)Other10.2 (2–20) |
| Edmonton-StrathconaEdmonton · 2023: NDP 79.7%NDP 72 (58–85) · UCP 16 (5–29) | NDP 79.7% | NDPNDPSolid | >99% | Solid | NDP71.5 (58–85)United Conservative15.9 (5–29)Other12.0 (3–22) |
| Edmonton-West HendayEdmonton · 2023: NDP 56.8%NDP 51 (36–65) · UCP 36 (22–51) | NDP 56.8% | NDPNDPLikely | 82% | Likely | NDP50.7 (36–65)United Conservative36.0 (22–51)Other12.9 (4–23) |
| Edmonton-WhitemudEdmonton · 2023: NDP 60.4%NDP 54 (39–69) · UCP 34 (20–48) | NDP 60.4% | NDPNDPLikely | 90% | Likely | NDP54.0 (39–69)United Conservative33.8 (20–48)Other11.7 (3–22) |
| Fort McMurray-Lac La BicheRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 73.6%UCP 69 (55–82) · NDP 22 (10–35) | United Conservative 73.6% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative68.7 (55–82)NDP21.9 (10–35) |
| Fort McMurray-Wood BuffaloRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 67.7%UCP 69 (55–82) · NDP 19 (8–32) | United Conservative 67.7% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative68.6 (55–82)NDP19.0 (8–32)Other12.0 (3–22) |
| Fort Saskatchewan-VegrevilleEdmonton · 2023: UCP 58.1%UCP 55 (40–69) · NDP 34 (21–49) | United Conservative 58.1% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | United Conservative55.0 (40–69)NDP34.3 (21–49)Other10.4 (2–20) |
| Grande PrairieRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 63.9%UCP 58 (44–73) · NDP 28 (15–42) | United Conservative 63.9% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | United Conservative58.2 (44–73)NDP27.6 (15–42)Other13.8 (5–25) |
| Grande Prairie-WapitiRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 76.2%UCP 70 (56–83) · NDP 18 (7–30) | United Conservative 76.2% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative69.5 (56–83)NDP17.8 (7–30)Other12.2 (3–22) |
| HighwoodRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 68.9%UCP 63 (48–77) · NDP 25 (13–39) | United Conservative 68.9% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | United Conservative63.0 (48–77)NDP25.4 (13–39)Other11.2 (3–21) |
| Innisfail-Sylvan LakeRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 71.6%UCP 65 (51–79) · NDP 22 (10–35) | United Conservative 71.6% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative65.1 (51–79)NDP22.0 (10–35)Other12.5 (3–23) |
| Lac Ste. Anne-ParklandEdmonton · 2023: UCP 69%UCP 63 (48–77) · NDP 24 (11–38) | United Conservative 69% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative63.1 (48–77)NDP23.7 (11–38)Other12.8 (4–23) |
| Lacombe-PonokaRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 67.6%UCP 61 (47–76) · NDP 21 (9–33) | United Conservative 67.6% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative61.3 (47–76)NDP20.5 (9–33)Other17.8 (8–29) |
| Leduc-BeaumontEdmonton · 2023: UCP 56.7%UCP 53 (38–67) · NDP 37 (23–51) | United Conservative 56.7% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 84% | Likely | United Conservative52.5 (38–67)NDP36.6 (23–51)Other10.5 (2–20) |
| Lesser Slave LakeRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 65%UCP 59 (45–74) · NDP 29 (16–43) | United Conservative 65% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | United Conservative59.4 (45–74)NDP29.3 (16–43)Other10.8 (2–21) |
| Lethbridge-EastRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 50.3%UCP 46 (32–61) · NDP 42 (28–56) | United Conservative 50.3% | UCPUnited ConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | United Conservative46.0 (32–61)NDP42.2 (28–56)Other11.3 (3–22) |
| Lethbridge-WestRest of Alberta · 2023: NDP 53.9%NDP 48 (34–63) · UCP 39 (25–53) | NDP 53.9% | NDPNDPLeans | 72% | Leans | NDP48.0 (34–63)United Conservative38.8 (25–53)Other12.7 (4–23) |
| Livingstone-MacleodRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 66.9%UCP 61 (47–75) · NDP 23 (11–36) | United Conservative 66.9% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | United Conservative61.3 (47–75)NDP23.0 (11–36)Other15.2 (5–26) |
| Maskwacis-WetaskiwinRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 67.5%UCP 64 (49–77) · NDP 25 (13–39) | United Conservative 67.5% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 98% | Solid | United Conservative63.7 (49–77)NDP25.2 (13–39)Other10.6 (2–21) |
| Morinville-St. AlbertEdmonton · 2023: UCP 51.8%UCP 47 (33–62) · NDP 40 (26–55) | United Conservative 51.8% | UCPUnited ConservativeLeans | 68% | Leans | United Conservative47.2 (33–62)NDP40.2 (26–55)Other12.1 (3–22) |
| Olds-Didsbury-Three HillsRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 75.3%UCP 69 (54–82) · NDP 16 (5–29) | United Conservative 75.3% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative68.5 (54–82)NDP16.2 (5–29)Other14.9 (5–26) |
| Peace RiverRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 72.8%UCP 68 (54–82) · NDP 21 (9–34) | United Conservative 72.8% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative68.2 (54–82)NDP20.6 (9–34)Other10.7 (2–21) |
| Red Deer-NorthRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 57.5%UCP 52 (38–67) · NDP 34 (21–49) | United Conservative 57.5% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | United Conservative52.4 (38–67)NDP34.2 (21–49)Other13.0 (4–24) |
| Red Deer-SouthRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 56.1%UCP 51 (37–66) · NDP 37 (23–51) | United Conservative 56.1% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 82% | Likely | United Conservative51.2 (37–66)NDP37.0 (23–51)Other11.5 (3–22) |
| Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-SundreRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 69.5%UCP 75 (62–88) · NDP 14 (4–27) | United Conservative 69.5% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative75.3 (62–88)NDP14.2 (4–27)Other10.0 (2–20) |
| Sherwood ParkEdmonton · 2023: NDP 50.3%NDP 45 (30–60) · UCP 40 (26–55) | NDP 50.3% | NDPNDPLeans | 62% | Leans | NDP44.8 (30–60)United Conservative39.9 (26–55)Other14.9 (5–26) |
| Spruce Grove-Stony PlainEdmonton · 2023: UCP 57%UCP 52 (38–67) · NDP 36 (22–50) | United Conservative 57% | UCPUnited ConservativeLikely | 84% | Likely | United Conservative52.1 (38–67)NDP36.0 (22–50)Other11.5 (3–21) |
| St. AlbertEdmonton · 2023: NDP 58.5%NDP 52 (38–67) · UCP 36 (22–51) | NDP 58.5% | NDPNDPLikely | 84% | Likely | NDP52.4 (38–67)United Conservative36.3 (22–51)Other10.8 (2–21) |
| Strathcona-Sherwood ParkEdmonton · 2023: UCP 53.1%UCP 50 (35–65) · NDP 41 (26–56) | United Conservative 53.1% | UCPUnited ConservativeLeans | 72% | Leans | United Conservative49.8 (35–65)NDP40.8 (26–56) |
| Taber-WarnerRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 75.3%UCP 68 (54–82) · Oth 17 (6–28) | United Conservative 75.3% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative68.2 (54–82)Other16.6 (6–28)NDP14.6 (4–27) |
| Vermilion-Lloydminster-WainwrightRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 74.4%UCP 69 (55–82) · Oth 15 (6–27) | United Conservative 74.4% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | United Conservative69.0 (55–82)Other15.3 (6–27)NDP15.2 (5–28) |
| West YellowheadRest of Alberta · 2023: UCP 71.8%UCP 66 (51–79) · NDP 25 (12–38) | United Conservative 71.8% | UCPUnited ConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | United Conservative65.8 (51–79)NDP24.8 (12–38) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Conservative | 48.4 | 47.1–49.7 | +0.1 |
| NDP | 39.6 | 37.4–41.8 | −0.5 |
| Others | 12.0 | +0.4 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 12 Feb 2026, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 26 Jan 2026, in points.
Polls included (28)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | UCPUnited Conservative | NDPNDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb | Mainstreet ResearchNew | 1,504 | ±2.5 | 48 | 40 |
| 26 Jan | Leger | 1,003 | ±3.1 | 50 | 37 |
| 11 Jan | Liaison | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 46 | 44 |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 362 | ±5.0 | 48 | 45 |
| 12 Oct 2025 | Leger | 1,045 | ±3.0 | 44 | 39 |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Cardinal Research | 2,626 | ±2.0 | 43 | 36 |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 431 | ±5.0 | 51 | 40 |
| 25 May 2025 | Leger | 1,040 | ±3.0 | 48 | 34 |
| 21 May 2025 | Abacus Data | 400 | ±5.0 | 58 | 32 |
| 21 May 2025 | Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research | 1,200 | ±2.8 | 52 | 38 |
18 earlier polls
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | UCPUnited Conservative | NDPNDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr 2025 | Environics | 1,003 | – | 43 | 47 |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 1,228 | ±2.8 | 51 | 39 |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 51 | 36 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Cardinal Research | 1,553 | ±2.5 | 50 | 43 |
| 5 Aug 2024 | Leger | 1,005 | ±3.1 | 48 | 40 |
| 11 Jul 2024 | Sovereign North Strategies | 2,861 | ±2.4 | 47 | 46 |
| 28 Jun 2024 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.3 | 54 | 40 |
| 25 May 2024 | Leger | 1,009 | ±3.1 | 47 | 43 |
| 24 Mar 2024 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 46 | 44 |
| 21 Mar 2024 | Abacus Data | 1,000 | ±3.1 | 55 | 40 |
| 13 Mar 2024 | Pallas Data | 868 | ±3.3 | 52 | 45 |
| 11 Mar 2024 | Leger | 1,001 | ±3.1 | 49 | 41 |
| 12 Feb 2024 | Leger | 1,002 | ±3.1 | 49 | 42 |
| 22 Jan 2024 | Leger | 1,001 | ±3.1 | 51 | 40 |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Leger | 1,012 | ±3.1 | 50 | 43 |
| 1 Dec 2023 | Angus Reid | 392 | ±5.0 | 53 | 40 |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 1,001 | ±3.1 | 46 | 47 |
| 18 Sep 2023 | Leger | 1,001 | ±3.1 | 49 | 39 |
Alberta polls published since the 2023 election, up to this projection, from the site’s Alberta polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. Other parties are the remainder: 100 minus the UCP and the NDP. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.
Projections since the 2023 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 44 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 41 projections, to 13 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | UCPUnited Conservative | NDPNDP | OthOther | UCPUnited Conservative maj. | NDPNDP maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 44 | 43 | 0 | 52% | 46% | 3% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Abacus Data | 45 | 42 | 0 | 57% | 41% | 3% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | Leger | 45 | 42 | 0 | 56% | 41% | 3% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research | 47 | 39 | 0 | 67% | 30% | 2% |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Abacus Data | 51 | 36 | 0 | 80% | 19% | 1% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Research Co. | 48 | 38 | 0 | 71% | 28% | 2% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Leger | 52 | 35 | 0 | 82% | 17% | 1% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Ipsos, Leger | 47 | 40 | 0 | 66% | 32% | 2% |
34 earlier projections
| Projection | UCPUnited Conservative | NDPNDP | OthOther | UCPUnited Conservative maj. | NDPNDP maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Angus Reid | 47 | 40 | 0 | 66% | 32% | 2% |
| 6 May 2026 | Probe Research | 50 | 36 | 0 | 77% | 21% | 2% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research, Mainstreet Research | 51 | 35 | 0 | 80% | 18% | 2% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Leger | 53 | 33 | 0 | 86% | 13% | 1% |
| 25 Mar 2026 | Pollara | 51 | 36 | 0 | 79% | 19% | 2% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Leger | 53 | 33 | 1 | 87% | 12% | 1% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Abacus Data | 53 | 34 | 0 | 85% | 14% | 1% |
| 12 Feb 2026 (this page) | Mainstreet Research | 51 | 36 | 0 | 79% | 20% | 2% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Leger | 50 | 37 | 0 | 77% | 22% | 2% |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Liaison | 43 | 43 | 0 | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 44 | 42 | 0 | 54% | 44% | 2% |
| 12 Oct 2025 | Leger | 48 | 38 | 1 | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Cardinal Research | 50 | 36 | 1 | 77% | 20% | 4% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 53 | 34 | 0 | 85% | 14% | 1% |
| 25 May 2025 | Leger | 58 | 28 | 0 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| 21 May 2025 | Abacus Data, Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research | 58 | 29 | 0 | 94% | 6% | 1% |
| 14 Apr 2025 | Environics | 42 | 44 | 0 | 44% | 54% | 2% |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 54 | 32 | 0 | 88% | 11% | 1% |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Leger | 58 | 29 | 0 | 93% | 6% | 1% |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Cardinal Research | 48 | 38 | 0 | 72% | 27% | 1% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | Leger | 47 | 40 | 0 | 66% | 32% | 2% |
| 11 Jul 2024 | Sovereign North Strategies | 46 | 40 | 0 | 64% | 35% | 2% |
| 28 Jun 2024 | Abacus Data | 53 | 33 | 0 | 87% | 12% | 1% |
| 25 May 2024 | Leger | 45 | 41 | 0 | 59% | 39% | 2% |
| 24 Mar 2024 | Leger | 50 | 37 | 0 | 77% | 22% | 1% |
| 21 Mar 2024 | Abacus Data | 51 | 35 | 0 | 82% | 17% | 1% |
| 13 Mar 2024 | Pallas Data | 49 | 38 | 0 | 73% | 25% | 1% |
| 11 Mar 2024 | Leger | 49 | 37 | 0 | 75% | 23% | 2% |
| 12 Feb 2024 | Leger | 50 | 37 | 0 | 76% | 23% | 1% |
| 22 Jan 2024 | Leger | 51 | 36 | 0 | 79% | 20% | 1% |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Leger | 49 | 38 | 0 | 73% | 26% | 1% |
| 1 Dec 2023 | Angus Reid | 50 | 37 | 0 | 76% | 23% | 1% |
| 30 Oct 2023 | Leger | 41 | 45 | 0 | 39% | 59% | 2% |
| 18 Sep 2023 | Leger | 52 | 35 | 0 | 83% | 16% | 1% |
How the projection works
The projection starts from the 2023 result in each of the 87 ridings. It moves each riding by the change in the site’s polling average since that election, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2023 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Parties other than the UCP and the NDP, among them the Progressive Tory Party, the Republican Party of Alberta and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition, are counted together: they had 3.3% of the vote in 2023 and 12% in the average. Their gain is added evenly across the ridings and taken from the UCP and the NDP in the proportions Research Co.’s poll of August 2026 reports among 2023 voters. Peter Guthrie, elected for the UCP in Airdrie-Cochrane in 2023 and now the Progressive Tory leader, keeps part of his 2023 vote, as members who left their party have in past elections. Ridings won in by-elections since 2023 start from the 2023 result.
The next general election is set by law for 18 October 2027, and the legislature is redrawing the ridings before it. When the new map is enacted, the 2023 results will be recast onto the new ridings and the projection will move to them.
Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Calgary, Edmonton and the rest of the province) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections. In those tests the method’s projected leader won 85.5% of ridings, and its 90% ranges contained each party’s actual seat total 94.9% of the time. Candidates’ personal appeal, local campaigns and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.