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Stephen Taylor

Alberta seat projection, 22 January 2024

As of 22 January 2024, from 5 polls

No Alberta election has been called, so this projection estimates the seats each party would win if an election were held at the time of the polls, on the 87 ridings of the 2023 election. Each riding’s 2023 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 16 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 22 January 2024.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the UCP win a median of 51 seats (90% range 36–65) and a majority in 79%; the NDP 36 seats (90% range 21–51) and a majority in 20%. No party wins a majority in 1%.

  • United Conservative majority

    79%

    Most seats in 79% of simulations

  • NDP majority

    20%

    Most seats in 20% of simulations

  • No majority

    1%

    13 ridings with no party above 60%

Projected seats by party, median and 90% range, out of 87; 44 seats are a majority.
44 for a majority
United Conservative

51 seats (36–65) · majority 79%

NDP

36 seats (21–51) · majority 20%

Others

0 seats (0–1)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 44 of 87 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.

Seat distributions

Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
44 for a majority

United Conservative

Median 51, 90%: 36–65

Majority in 79%

Most frequent: 50 (5.0%)

NDP

Median 36, 90%: 21–51

Majority in 20%

Most frequent: 34 (5.1%)

Others

Median 0, 90%: 0–1

Most frequent: 0 (64.1%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
PartyMedian seats90% rangeMost frequentChance of a majority
United Conservative5136 to 6550 seats, 5.0% of simulations79%
NDP3621 to 5134 seats, 5.1% of simulations20%
Others00 to 10 seats, 64.1% of simulations0%
The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 44 of 87 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.

What changed

New poll

  • Leger, fieldwork to 22 Jan 2024, 1,001 respondentsUnited Conservative 51 · NDP 40

Change since 15 Jan 2024

  • Median seats: United Conservative +2, NDP −2.
  • Chance of a majority, in points: United Conservative +6, NDP −6; no majority 0.
  • Projected leader changed in 5 ridings: Calgary-Acadia (NDP to United Conservative); Calgary-Glenmore (NDP to United Conservative); Calgary-North (NDP to United Conservative); Calgary-North West (NDP to United Conservative); Airdrie-Cochrane (NDP to Other).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
United ConservativeNDP
Solid 95%+268
Likely 80–95%1215
Leans 60–80%67
Toss-up <60%13

Alberta

Calgary

Edmonton

Seats changing hands

Won in 2023Projected
UCP49
NDP38
UCP44
NDP30
Toss-up13
Ridings by party: won in 2023, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party2023ProjectedGainsLossesToss-ups
UCP4944––5
NDP3830––8
Toss-up 13 
Each riding from the party that won it at the 2023 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2023 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

United Conservative44th-best riding: Calgary-Cross, 61% · chance of a majority 79%

NDP44th-best riding: Calgary-East, 36% · chance of a majority 20%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 44 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 44th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 87 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2023 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2023, toss-ups included.

All 87 ridings: 2023 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
Airdrie-Cochrane2023: UCP 60.1%UCP 34 (14–50) · NDP 34 (13–50)United Conservative 60.1%Peter Guthriegain from UCPToss-up35%Toss-upUnited Conservative33.7 (14–50)NDP33.7 (13–50)Peter Guthrie30.7 (14–67)
Airdrie-East2023: UCP 62%UCP 59 (45–73) · NDP 33 (19–47)United Conservative 62%UCPLikely95%LikelyUnited Conservative59.2 (45–73)NDP33.0 (19–47)
Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock2023: UCP 74.3%UCP 71 (57–84) · NDP 24 (11–37)United Conservative 74.3%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative71.0 (57–84)NDP23.7 (11–37)
Banff-Kananaskis2023: NDP 49.7%UCP 46 (32–61) · NDP 46 (32–61)NDP 49.7%NDPToss-up50%Toss-upUnited Conservative46.4 (32–61)NDP46.4 (32–61)
Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul2023: UCP 75.5%UCP 72 (58–85) · NDP 23 (10–36)United Conservative 75.5%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative72.1 (58–85)NDP22.5 (10–36)
Brooks-Medicine Hat2023: UCP 66.5%UCP 63 (49–77) · NDP 25 (13–39)United Conservative 66.5%UCPSolid98%SolidUnited Conservative63.3 (49–77)NDP25.2 (13–39)Other11.1 (3–21)
Calgary-Acadia2023: NDP 48.6%UCP 47 (32–61) · NDP 46 (31–61)NDP 48.6%UCPgain from NDPToss-up52%Toss-upUnited Conservative46.6 (32–61)NDP45.8 (31–61)
Calgary-Beddington2023: NDP 49.7%NDP 47 (32–61) · UCP 45 (31–60)NDP 49.7%NDPToss-up55%Toss-upNDP46.6 (32–61)United Conservative44.9 (31–60)
Calgary-Bow2023: UCP 49.7%UCP 48 (33–62) · NDP 44 (30–59)United Conservative 49.7%UCPToss-up58%Toss-upUnited Conservative47.5 (33–62)NDP44.4 (30–59)
Calgary-Buffalo2023: NDP 63%NDP 59 (44–73) · UCP 33 (20–48)NDP 63%NDPLikely93%LikelyNDP59.1 (44–73)United Conservative33.2 (20–48)
Calgary-Cross2023: UCP 50.2%UCP 48 (33–62) · NDP 44 (29–58)United Conservative 50.2%UCPLeans61%LeansUnited Conservative47.8 (33–62)NDP43.7 (29–58)
Calgary-Currie2023: NDP 54.8%NDP 51 (37–66) · UCP 39 (25–54)NDP 54.8%NDPLeans78%LeansNDP51.3 (37–66)United Conservative39.1 (25–54)
Calgary-East2023: UCP 50.2%UCP 48 (34–62) · NDP 42 (28–57)United Conservative 50.2%UCPLeans64%LeansUnited Conservative47.8 (34–62)NDP42.3 (28–57)
Calgary-Edgemont2023: NDP 49.3%UCP 46 (31–60) · NDP 46 (32–60)NDP 49.3%NDPToss-up50%Toss-upUnited Conservative46.0 (31–60)NDP46.0 (32–60)
Calgary-Elbow2023: NDP 49%NDP 46 (31–61) · UCP 44 (29–58)NDP 49%NDPToss-up55%Toss-upNDP45.8 (31–61)United Conservative43.8 (29–58)Other10.1 (2–19)
Calgary-Falconridge2023: NDP 56.4%NDP 54 (39–68) · UCP 39 (25–53)NDP 56.4%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP53.8 (39–68)United Conservative38.5 (25–53)
Calgary-Fish Creek2023: UCP 53.8%UCP 51 (37–66) · NDP 41 (27–56)United Conservative 53.8%UCPLeans74%LeansUnited Conservative51.3 (37–66)NDP41.1 (27–56)
Calgary-Foothills2023: NDP 49.9%NDP 47 (33–62) · UCP 47 (33–61)NDP 49.9%NDPToss-up51%Toss-upNDP47.2 (33–62)United Conservative46.9 (33–61)
Calgary-Glenmore2023: NDP 49.3%UCP 47 (32–61) · NDP 46 (32–61)NDP 49.3%UCPgain from NDPToss-up51%Toss-upUnited Conservative46.7 (32–61)NDP46.3 (32–61)
Calgary-Hays2023: UCP 55.6%UCP 53 (38–68) · NDP 40 (25–54)United Conservative 55.6%UCPLeans80%LeansUnited Conservative52.9 (38–68)NDP39.5 (25–54)
Calgary-Klein2023: NDP 50.9%NDP 48 (33–62) · UCP 45 (30–59)NDP 50.9%NDPToss-up58%Toss-upNDP47.6 (33–62)United Conservative44.6 (30–59)
Calgary-Lougheed2023: UCP 56.4%UCP 54 (39–68) · NDP 38 (24–52)United Conservative 56.4%UCPLikely84%LikelyUnited Conservative53.8 (39–68)NDP37.7 (24–52)
Calgary-McCall2023: NDP 58%NDP 54 (40–69) · UCP 40 (26–55)NDP 58%NDPLikely81%LikelyNDP54.3 (40–69)United Conservative40.2 (26–55)
Calgary-Mountain View2023: NDP 64.7%NDP 61 (46–75) · UCP 32 (19–46)NDP 64.7%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP60.7 (46–75)United Conservative31.6 (19–46)
Calgary-North2023: UCP 50.4%UCP 48 (34–63) · NDP 47 (32–61)United Conservative 50.4%UCPToss-up54%Toss-upUnited Conservative48.0 (34–63)NDP46.5 (32–61)
Calgary-North East2023: NDP 55%NDP 52 (37–66) · UCP 43 (29–58)NDP 55%NDPLeans71%LeansNDP51.6 (37–66)United Conservative43.1 (29–58)
Calgary-North West2023: UCP 48.3%UCP 46 (32–61) · NDP 45 (30–59)United Conservative 48.3%UCPToss-up54%Toss-upUnited Conservative46.4 (32–61)NDP44.9 (30–59)
Calgary-Peigan2023: UCP 55%UCP 53 (38–67) · NDP 39 (25–54)United Conservative 55%UCPLikely80%LikelyUnited Conservative52.5 (38–67)NDP39.3 (25–54)
Calgary-Shaw2023: UCP 56.3%UCP 54 (39–68) · NDP 40 (26–54)United Conservative 56.3%UCPLikely81%LikelyUnited Conservative53.7 (39–68)NDP40.0 (26–54)
Calgary-South East2023: UCP 58.8%UCP 56 (42–71) · NDP 37 (23–51)United Conservative 58.8%UCPLikely89%LikelyUnited Conservative56.0 (42–71)NDP36.8 (23–51)
Calgary-Varsity2023: NDP 58.3%NDP 55 (40–69) · UCP 39 (25–53)NDP 58.3%NDPLikely84%LikelyNDP54.6 (40–69)United Conservative38.8 (25–53)
Calgary-West2023: UCP 56.7%UCP 54 (39–69) · NDP 39 (25–54)United Conservative 56.7%UCPLikely83%LikelyUnited Conservative54.1 (39–69)NDP39.1 (25–54)
Camrose2023: UCP 63.4%UCP 66 (52–80) · NDP 27 (15–41)United Conservative 63.4%UCPSolid98%SolidUnited Conservative66.1 (52–80)NDP27.3 (15–41)
Cardston-Siksika2023: UCP 74.1%UCP 75 (62–87) · NDP 17 (6–30)United Conservative 74.1%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative75.3 (62–87)NDP17.2 (6–30)
Central Peace-Notley2023: UCP 77.7%UCP 74 (61–87) · NDP 17 (6–30)United Conservative 77.7%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative74.1 (61–87)NDP16.7 (6–30)
Chestermere-Strathmore2023: UCP 69.7%UCP 67 (53–81) · NDP 26 (13–40)United Conservative 69.7%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative67.2 (53–81)NDP26.0 (13–40)
Cypress-Medicine Hat2023: UCP 61.9%UCP 59 (44–73) · NDP 33 (19–47)United Conservative 61.9%UCPLikely94%LikelyUnited Conservative59.2 (44–73)NDP32.6 (19–47)
Drayton Valley-Devon2023: UCP 73.7%UCP 70 (56–83) · NDP 21 (8–34)United Conservative 73.7%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative70.2 (56–83)NDP20.5 (8–34)
Drumheller-Stettler2023: UCP 82.1%UCP 78 (65–90) · NDP 13 (3–25)United Conservative 82.1%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative78.3 (65–90)NDP12.9 (3–25)
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview2023: NDP 57.7%NDP 55 (40–69) · UCP 38 (24–52)NDP 57.7%NDPLikely86%LikelyNDP54.8 (40–69)United Conservative37.6 (24–52)
Edmonton-Castle Downs2023: NDP 55.7%NDP 52 (37–67) · UCP 39 (25–53)NDP 55.7%NDPLeans80%LeansNDP52.1 (37–67)United Conservative38.6 (25–53)
Edmonton-City Centre2023: NDP 74.9%NDP 70 (56–83) · UCP 21 (10–35)NDP 74.9%NDPSolid99%SolidNDP70.4 (56–83)United Conservative21.3 (10–35)
Edmonton-Decore2023: NDP 52.8%NDP 49 (35–64) · UCP 39 (25–54)NDP 52.8%NDPLeans74%LeansNDP49.4 (35–64)United Conservative39.3 (25–54)Other10.9 (3–21)
Edmonton-Ellerslie2023: NDP 61.7%NDP 58 (43–72) · UCP 35 (22–50)NDP 61.7%NDPLikely92%LikelyNDP58.0 (43–72)United Conservative35.2 (22–50)
Edmonton-Glenora2023: NDP 69.2%NDP 65 (50–79) · UCP 27 (14–41)NDP 69.2%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP65.0 (50–79)United Conservative26.9 (14–41)
Edmonton-Gold Bar2023: NDP 69.5%NDP 66 (51–80) · UCP 27 (14–42)NDP 69.5%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP66.2 (51–80)United Conservative26.9 (14–42)
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood2023: NDP 71.5%NDP 67 (53–81) · UCP 24 (12–38)NDP 71.5%NDPSolid99%SolidNDP67.1 (53–81)United Conservative24.1 (12–38)
Edmonton-Manning2023: NDP 59.8%NDP 56 (41–70) · UCP 37 (23–51)NDP 59.8%NDPLikely88%LikelyNDP56.0 (41–70)United Conservative36.7 (23–51)
Edmonton-McClung2023: NDP 59.5%NDP 57 (42–72) · UCP 37 (22–51)NDP 59.5%NDPLikely89%LikelyNDP56.7 (42–72)United Conservative36.5 (22–51)
Edmonton-Meadows2023: NDP 62.6%NDP 59 (44–73) · UCP 35 (21–50)NDP 62.6%NDPLikely92%LikelyNDP58.7 (44–73)United Conservative34.6 (21–50)
Edmonton-Mill Woods2023: NDP 61.7%NDP 58 (43–72) · UCP 37 (23–51)NDP 61.7%NDPLikely89%LikelyNDP57.9 (43–72)United Conservative36.8 (23–51)
Edmonton-North West2023: NDP 59.7%NDP 56 (41–71) · UCP 37 (23–51)NDP 59.7%NDPLikely88%LikelyNDP55.9 (41–71)United Conservative36.6 (23–51)
Edmonton-Riverview2023: NDP 67.1%NDP 63 (48–77) · UCP 28 (15–42)NDP 67.1%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP62.9 (48–77)United Conservative27.7 (15–42)
Edmonton-Rutherford2023: NDP 65.1%NDP 61 (46–75) · UCP 30 (17–45)NDP 65.1%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP61.0 (46–75)United Conservative30.4 (17–45)
Edmonton-South2023: NDP 59%NDP 55 (41–70) · UCP 38 (24–52)NDP 59%NDPLikely86%LikelyNDP55.3 (41–70)United Conservative37.8 (24–52)
Edmonton-South West2023: NDP 56.5%NDP 53 (38–68) · UCP 40 (26–55)NDP 56.5%NDPLeans78%LeansNDP53.0 (38–68)United Conservative40.3 (26–55)
Edmonton-Strathcona2023: NDP 79.7%NDP 75 (61–88) · UCP 17 (5–30)NDP 79.7%NDPSolid>99%SolidNDP74.9 (61–88)United Conservative16.6 (5–30)
Edmonton-West Henday2023: NDP 56.8%NDP 53 (39–68) · UCP 38 (24–52)NDP 56.8%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP53.1 (39–68)United Conservative37.7 (24–52)
Edmonton-Whitemud2023: NDP 60.4%NDP 57 (42–71) · UCP 35 (22–50)NDP 60.4%NDPLikely90%LikelyNDP56.5 (42–71)United Conservative35.3 (22–50)
Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche2023: UCP 73.6%UCP 72 (58–84) · NDP 23 (11–36)United Conservative 73.6%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative71.6 (58–84)NDP22.9 (11–36)
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo2023: UCP 67.7%UCP 72 (58–85) · NDP 20 (8–33)United Conservative 67.7%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative71.7 (58–85)NDP20.0 (8–33)
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville2023: UCP 58.1%UCP 57 (43–72) · NDP 36 (22–50)United Conservative 58.1%UCPLikely90%LikelyUnited Conservative57.4 (43–72)NDP35.8 (22–50)
Grande Prairie2023: UCP 63.9%UCP 61 (46–75) · NDP 29 (16–43)United Conservative 63.9%UCPSolid97%SolidUnited Conservative60.9 (46–75)NDP28.9 (16–43)
Grande Prairie-Wapiti2023: UCP 76.2%UCP 73 (59–85) · NDP 19 (8–32)United Conservative 76.2%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative72.6 (59–85)NDP18.7 (8–32)
Highwood2023: UCP 68.9%UCP 66 (51–80) · NDP 27 (14–40)United Conservative 68.9%UCPSolid98%SolidUnited Conservative65.8 (51–80)NDP26.6 (14–40)
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake2023: UCP 71.6%UCP 68 (54–81) · NDP 23 (11–36)United Conservative 71.6%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative68.1 (54–81)NDP23.0 (11–36)
Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland2023: UCP 69%UCP 66 (51–80) · NDP 25 (12–39)United Conservative 69%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative65.9 (51–80)NDP24.9 (12–39)
Lacombe-Ponoka2023: UCP 67.6%UCP 64 (50–78) · NDP 22 (10–35)United Conservative 67.6%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative64.3 (50–78)NDP21.5 (10–35)Other13.8 (5–24)
Leduc-Beaumont2023: UCP 56.7%UCP 55 (40–69) · NDP 38 (24–53)United Conservative 56.7%UCPLikely84%LikelyUnited Conservative54.9 (40–69)NDP38.2 (24–53)
Lesser Slave Lake2023: UCP 65%UCP 62 (48–76) · NDP 31 (17–45)United Conservative 65%UCPSolid97%SolidUnited Conservative62.1 (48–76)NDP30.7 (17–45)
Lethbridge-East2023: UCP 50.3%UCP 48 (34–63) · NDP 44 (30–59)United Conservative 50.3%UCPToss-up60%Toss-upUnited Conservative48.1 (34–63)NDP44.2 (30–59)
Lethbridge-West2023: NDP 53.9%NDP 50 (36–65) · UCP 41 (27–55)NDP 53.9%NDPLeans73%LeansNDP50.2 (36–65)United Conservative40.6 (27–55)
Livingstone-Macleod2023: UCP 66.9%UCP 64 (50–78) · NDP 24 (12–38)United Conservative 66.9%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative64.2 (50–78)NDP24.2 (12–38)Other11.2 (3–21)
Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin2023: UCP 67.5%UCP 67 (52–80) · NDP 26 (14–40)United Conservative 67.5%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative66.6 (52–80)NDP26.4 (14–40)
Morinville-St. Albert2023: UCP 51.8%UCP 49 (35–64) · NDP 42 (28–57)United Conservative 51.8%UCPLeans68%LeansUnited Conservative49.3 (35–64)NDP42.0 (28–57)
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills2023: UCP 75.3%UCP 72 (58–85) · NDP 17 (6–30)United Conservative 75.3%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative71.7 (58–85)NDP17.1 (6–30)Other10.9 (3–20)
Peace River2023: UCP 72.8%UCP 71 (57–84) · NDP 22 (10–35)United Conservative 72.8%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative71.2 (57–84)NDP21.5 (10–35)
Red Deer-North2023: UCP 57.5%UCP 55 (40–69) · NDP 36 (22–50)United Conservative 57.5%UCPLikely88%LikelyUnited Conservative54.8 (40–69)NDP35.8 (22–50)
Red Deer-South2023: UCP 56.1%UCP 54 (39–68) · NDP 39 (25–53)United Conservative 56.1%UCPLikely83%LikelyUnited Conservative53.6 (39–68)NDP38.7 (25–53)
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre2023: UCP 69.5%UCP 79 (66–90) · NDP 15 (4–28)United Conservative 69.5%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative78.6 (66–90)NDP14.9 (4–28)
Sherwood Park2023: NDP 50.3%NDP 47 (32–62) · UCP 42 (28–57)NDP 50.3%NDPLeans63%LeansNDP46.9 (32–62)United Conservative41.8 (28–57)Other10.8 (3–20)
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain2023: UCP 57%UCP 55 (40–69) · NDP 38 (23–52)United Conservative 57%UCPLikely85%LikelyUnited Conservative54.5 (40–69)NDP37.7 (23–52)
St. Albert2023: NDP 58.5%NDP 55 (40–69) · UCP 38 (24–53)NDP 58.5%NDPLikely85%LikelyNDP54.8 (40–69)United Conservative38.0 (24–53)
Strathcona-Sherwood Park2023: UCP 53.1%UCP 52 (37–67) · NDP 43 (28–57)United Conservative 53.1%UCPLeans73%LeansUnited Conservative52.0 (37–67)NDP42.6 (28–57)
Taber-Warner2023: UCP 75.3%UCP 72 (58–85) · NDP 16 (5–28)United Conservative 75.3%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative71.5 (58–85)NDP15.5 (5–28)Other12.6 (4–23)
Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright2023: UCP 74.4%UCP 72 (58–85) · NDP 16 (5–29)United Conservative 74.4%UCPSolid>99%SolidUnited Conservative72.2 (58–85)NDP16.1 (5–29)Other11.2 (3–21)
West Yellowhead2023: UCP 71.8%UCP 69 (54–82) · NDP 26 (13–39)United Conservative 71.8%UCPSolid99%SolidUnited Conservative68.6 (54–82)NDP25.9 (13–39)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 22 Jan 2024, with the spread of recent polls
PartyAverageSpreadChange
United Conservative50.650.0–51.2+0.4
NDP41.439.9–42.9−1.4
Others8.0 +1.0

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 22 Jan 2024, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 15 Jan 2024, in points.

Polls included (5)

The 5 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterUCPNDP
22 JanLegerNew1,001±3.15140
15 JanLeger1,012±3.15043
1 Dec 2023Angus Reid392±5.05340
30 Oct 2023Leger1,001±3.14647
18 Sep 2023Leger1,001±3.14939

Alberta polls published since the 2023 election, up to this projection, from the site’s Alberta polling table. Older polls carry little weight in the average. Other parties are the remainder: 100 minus the UCP and the NDP. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2023 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

02080442024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulOctUnited Conservative 44NDP 43Other 0

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

0255075100%2024AprJulOct2025AprJulOct2026AprJulOctUnited Conservative 52%NDP 46%Minority 3%

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 44 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 41 projections, to 13 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 20 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionUCPNDPOthUCP maj.NDP maj.
16 Oct 2026Mainstreet Research4443052%46%3%
13 Oct 2026Abacus Data4542057%41%3%
4 Oct 2026Leger4542056%41%3%
21 Sep 2026Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research4739067%30%2%
7 Sep 2026Abacus Data5136080%19%1%
26 Aug 2026Research Co.4838071%28%2%
23 Aug 2026Leger5235082%17%1%
1 Jun 2026Ipsos, Leger4740066%32%2%
34 earlier projections
Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionUCPNDPOthUCP maj.NDP maj.
24 May 2026Angus Reid4740066%32%2%
6 May 2026Probe Research5036077%21%2%
22 Apr 2026Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research, Mainstreet Research5135080%18%2%
6 Apr 2026Leger5333086%13%1%
25 Mar 2026Pollara5136079%19%2%
4 Mar 2026Leger5333187%12%1%
25 Feb 2026Abacus Data5334085%14%1%
12 Feb 2026Mainstreet Research5136079%20%2%
26 Jan 2026Leger5037077%22%2%
11 Jan 2026Liaison4343049%49%2%
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid4442054%44%2%
12 Oct 2025Leger4838170%26%4%
20 Sep 2025Cardinal Research5036177%20%4%
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid5334085%14%1%
25 May 2025Leger5828094%5%1%
21 May 2025Abacus Data, Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research5829094%6%1%
14 Apr 2025Environics4244044%54%2%
18 Mar 2025Mainstreet Research5432088%11%1%
26 Jan 2025Leger5829093%6%1%
28 Sep 2024Cardinal Research4838072%27%1%
5 Aug 2024Leger4740066%32%2%
11 Jul 2024Sovereign North Strategies4640064%35%2%
28 Jun 2024Abacus Data5333087%12%1%
25 May 2024Leger4541059%39%2%
24 Mar 2024Leger5037077%22%1%
21 Mar 2024Abacus Data5135082%17%1%
13 Mar 2024Pallas Data4938073%25%1%
11 Mar 2024Leger4937075%23%2%
12 Feb 2024Leger5037076%23%1%
22 Jan 2024 (this page)Leger5136079%20%1%
15 Jan 2024Leger4938073%26%1%
1 Dec 2023Angus Reid5037076%23%1%
30 Oct 2023Leger4145039%59%2%
18 Sep 2023Leger5235083%16%1%

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2023 result in each of the 87 ridings. It moves each riding by the change in the site’s polling average since that election, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2023 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. Parties other than the UCP and the NDP, among them the Progressive Tory Party, the Republican Party of Alberta and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition, are counted together: they had 3.3% of the vote in 2023 and 8% in the average. Their gain is added evenly across the ridings and taken from the UCP and the NDP in the proportions Research Co.’s poll of August 2026 reports among 2023 voters. Peter Guthrie, elected for the UCP in Airdrie-Cochrane in 2023 and now the Progressive Tory leader, keeps part of his 2023 vote, as members who left their party have in past elections. Ridings won in by-elections since 2023 start from the 2023 result.

The next general election is set by law for 18 October 2027, and the legislature is redrawing the ridings before it. When the new map is enacted, the 2023 results will be recast onto the new ridings and the projection will move to them.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors (Calgary, Edmonton and the rest of the province) and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections. In those tests the method’s projected leader won 85.5% of ridings, and its 90% ranges contained each party’s actual seat total 94.9% of the time. Candidates’ personal appeal, local campaigns and changes of opinion after the polls are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2023 election results