The Last week of play. What to watch for.

For spectators of the political Olympics, we’re now in the final sprint, the last leg, indeed the gold medal round of the competition to shape the 41st Parliament.

We’ve seen some surprises, some upsets and some tears among the competitors.

Jack Layton, the scrappy underdog, is on his way to a personal best and new team record if his current momentum holds. His main competition released a barrage of hits against him this weekend calling him an unprincipled career politician. The Liberals have been billing themselves as good sports but they’ve been throwing a few low blows of late. Word is, the old coach of the Grits, one Jean Chrétien, a 40 year career hall-of-famer in his own right, will be on the bench and will be wrapping his gloves around the neck of any oncomer that comes to challenge rookie Iggy “the Professor” Ignatieff.

The relative inexperience of the Liberal challenger has been evident in round-robin competition up to now.

Meanwhile, later this week, gameplay will be interrupted by the British Royal wedding. Look for competitors to regroup in Quebec where fans of both Brits and marriage are in relative short supply. Indeed, while English Canada is tuning into the nuptials of Wills and Kate, Quebecers will be getting a better look at Gilles, Jaques and Stephen. Layton will continue to bill himself as the hometown hero in Montreal as the Habs continue their playoff run. Duceppe will focus his fire on the new challenger to the socialist crown in the nation. Of late, the sovereignist slugger has been flailing as his gameplan has come up short. La crie finale of the Bloc will appeal to Quebecers and their identity instead of their issues.

Stephen Harper will continue to skate easy as team Grit and team Dip battle it out for the silver. To help firm up the NDP vote where it counts for the Conservatives against the Liberals, watch for additional polarizing plays by the Conservatives against the New Democrats. A strong frontal attack against Layton will rally the orange jerseys and prevent them from switching teams in the last round. Harper, the champion of the last round and favourite to win this match, owes much of his success to years of disciplined training, a strong record, and trash-talking of the Liberal challenger in the off-season. Facing a much weakened Liberal team in the final round, look for Harper to square-off against the Liberals, Dippers and Bloc as a tag-team coalition, and a desperate, reckless and unstable one at that.

While keeping an eye on gameplay on the field, watch for fans to boo the officiators of this Canadian political grudge match as election referees focus attention on rule breakers in the stands threatening the peace with their tweets and wall posts. A wave of civil disobedience will start among the spectators as they pass on the score to spectators suffering under blackout conditions.

As we wrap up competition in the games of the 41st political Olympiad the biggest question will remained unanswered until the last minute of competition as we finish tallying the score: will we hold the next political Olympics in four years?

Game Changer

They’ve been popping organic champagne corks in the NDP war room this week as poll after poll is showing that party ahead of the Liberals in a race for second place.

The surge of the NDP seems to be most pronounced in Quebec where there are certainly more than a few former NDP staffers, thinking they were taking one for the team, who may yet find themselves with seats in the House of Commons come May 3rd.

The larger effect of all of this is of course the psychological block experienced by many on the left regarding cheating on their idealism to act pragmatic. For those that have traditionally held their nose voting Liberal to “stop Harper”, this week has been a game changer for the NDP.

What happened? Jack Layton gave phenomenal back-to-back performances in the debates. Walking into this campaign, with the visible assistance of a cane, reporters had asked him how his health would fare during a grueling 35 days while leaders crisscross the country on an intense schedule. Instead, we’ve learned that Layton may toss his cane aside by election day.

Indeed, Layton now appears to be dancing circles around the Liberal campaign led by a leader many in the press expected to do better given lower expectations set by 2 years of negative advertising against him. Instead, the Harvard professor was schooled by Layton in the moment of the English language leaders debate that was the closest thing we saw to a “knock-out blow” in those two nights. Called out for his poor attendance record, Layton asked rhetorically how Michael Ignatieff could speak convincingly on democracy if he didn’t show up for votes in the Commons.

Many leftwing voters are now asking how Ignatieff can represent their views if he’s not present for votes. And as we’re seeing in the polls, many wonder if Ignatieff can do much to stop a majority Conservative government.

The other fatal blunder for Ignatieff this week came during an interview with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge when the Liberal leader admitted that regarding a coalition, Mr. Harper could try to form government yet if he could not command the confidence of the House, Mr. Ignatieff would try to form a government with the support of the other parties, including the Bloc Quebecois. Yet most Canadians are more grounded than Ignatieff appeared to be during that interview. It is widely understood that such cooperation would come with concessions to any partner that would support the second-place Liberals in the formation of a new government. And while Mr. Ignatieff is willfully ignorant that such concessions would relate to cabinet, Canadians remember the last time the Liberals negotiated a scenario for taking power without the support of the majority or plurality of the electorate.

Canadians are going into the Easter weekend tomorrow with a few truths to consider. First and foremost, Stephen Harper will be the next Prime Minister. Second, if Michael Ignatieff cannot be counted on to stop Stephen Harper from forming a majority, left-leaning Canadians will look to the much more likable and ideological Jack Layton to oppose Mr. Harper in the 41st parliament. Third, Canadians will consider a coalition government to be explicitly on the table as Layton may be in an increased position of strength to negotiate its outcome.