Tag: conservative party of canada

CPC Convention – Before the PM’s speech

MP Shelley Glover and Christian Paradis are warming up the audience extolling the virtues of the host city Winnipeg and trade some scripted lines on the follies of the House of Commons.

Glover introduces the mayor of Winnipeg.

Mayor says a few words about Winnipeg.

7:30pm: Glover introduces Steven Fletcher. Fletcher gets a standing ovation.

7:32pm: Fletcher asks delegates to wear red tomorrow to support the troops. Fletcher suggests we take the colour red back from the Liberals since they’ve done nothing to support them.

7:34pm: Fletcher calls Harper’s marriage to Laureen the smartest decision he ever made. Enter Laureen Harper to give Fletcher a peck on the cheek for saying so. Laureen Harper is introduced.

7:36pm: “Steven Fletcher’s gotta be the smoothest guy on six wheels” — Laureen Harper

7:37pm: “This is unusual. Usually I get the last word in our house, not the first.”

7:38pm: Mrs. Harper says that the PM will interrupt any meeting to take a call from son Ben or daughter Rachel.

7:39pm: Apparently, Stephen Harper has seen High School Musical four times.

7:40pm: Harper enters to Collective Soul’s Better Now, his signature entrance music for the 2006 and 2008 campaigns.

The latest Strategic Counsel poll

So, about the latest Strategic Counsel poll that shows the Liberals at 37% and the Conservatives at 30%.

I’ve checked the methodology of the poll and it seems to be what I call an “honest poll” (ie. that the pollster has the ballot question first without prompting respondents with questions that either outline successes or failures of any party — check this post for more discussion).

So, the methodology is straight-forward. However I cannot square the main result (LPC 37%, CPC 30%) with the results of this question:

Now that Stéphane Dion is the new Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, would you say you are significantly more likely, somewhat more likely, the same, somewhat less likely or significantly less likely to vote Liberal than you were before the Convention?

Total more likely: 20%
The same: 47%
Total less likely: 26%

This question should indicate that Canadian are less likely to vote for the Liberals under Stephane Dion.

However, the ballot question indicates the Liberals over the Conservatives with 37% to 30%, respectively.

The two results are in conflict. The only explanation is that the Liberals had higher support than 37% before the convention.

Ipsos put them at 25-27% to a Conservative 38% just a few days before Dion was elected leader.

The only thing that we know for certain is that we don’t have a clear picture of what is going on yet.

I’ll wait for SES numbers.