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Stephen Taylor

British Columbia seat projection, 9 June 2025

As of 9 June 2025, from 6 polls · election day 24 October 2026

Each riding’s 2024 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 23 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 9 June 2025.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the NDP win a median of 49 seats (90% range 28–68) and a majority in 60%; the Conservatives 42 seats (90% range 23–63) and a majority in 34%; the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–4). No party wins a majority in 6%.

  • NDP majority

    60%

    Most seats in 63% of simulations

  • Conservative majority

    34%

    Most seats in 36% of simulations

  • No majority

    6%

    18 ridings with no party above 60%

Projected seats by party, median and 90% range, out of 93; 47 seats are a majority.
47 for a majority
Conservative

42 seats (23–63) · majority 34%

NDP

49 seats (28–68) · majority 60%

Green

2 seats (0–4)

Others

0 seats (0–1)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 47 of 93 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties. OneBC and CentreBC win no seat in the median simulation; OneBC wins at least one in –, CentreBC wins at least one in <1%.

Seat distributions

Seat distributions. Use the left and right arrow keys to read each party’s chance of a number of seats.
47 for a majority

Conservative

Median 42, 90%: 23–63

Majority in 34%

Most frequent: 42 (3.9%)

NDP

Median 49, 90%: 28–68

Majority in 60%

Most frequent: 47 (4.0%)

Green

Median 2, 90%: 0–4

Most frequent: 1 (30.0%)

Others

Median 0, 90%: 0–1

Most frequent: 0 (77.1%)

Seat distribution by party in 10,000 simulations
PartyMedian seats90% rangeMost frequentChance of a majority
Conservative4223 to 6342 seats, 3.9% of simulations34%
NDP4928 to 6847 seats, 4.0% of simulations60%
Green20 to 41 seats, 30.0% of simulations0%
Others00 to 10 seats, 77.1% of simulations0%
The share of the 10,000 simulations in which each party wins each number of seats. Each party’s bars are scaled to its most frequent count, given beside it. Bracket: the middle 90% of simulations; tick: the median. The shaded side of the dashed line is a majority, 47 of 93 seats or more. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on the chart to read each party’s chance of exactly and of at least a number of seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties.

What changed

New poll

  • Research Co., fieldwork to 9 Jun 2025, 803 respondentsNDP 43 · Conservative 42 · Green 8 · CentreBC 2 · OneBC 1

Change since 25 May 2025

  • Median seats: Conservative +2, NDP −2, Green 0.
  • Chance of a majority, in points: Conservative +6, NDP −6; no majority 0.
  • Projected leader changed in 1 riding: North Island (NDP to Conservative).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
ConNDPGreen
Solid 95%+6110
Likely 80–95%14160
Leans 60–80%14131
Toss-up <60%18

British Columbia

Lower Mainland

Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond

Greater Victoria

Kelowna

Seats changing hands

Won in 2024Projected
Con44
NDP47
Grn2
Con34
NDP40
Grn1
Toss-up18
Ridings by party: won in 2024, projected, gained, lost and now toss-ups
Party2024ProjectedGainsLossesToss-ups
Con44341–11
NDP4740–16
Grn21––1
Toss-up 18 
Each riding from the party that won it at the 2024 general election to the party projected to win it, where that party’s chance is 60% or more; ridings where no party reaches 60% are toss-ups. Ribbons that change party are drawn darker. Hover over or tap a ribbon for its ridings and the projected leader’s chance in each. By-elections and members who changed party since 2024 are not shown as changes.

The path to a majority

Conservative47th-best riding: Courtenay-Comox, 46% · chance of a majority 34%

NDP47th-best riding: Ladysmith-Oceanside, 52% · chance of a majority 60%

Every riding ranked by each party’s chance of winning it, best first. The curve is that chance; the strip under it shows who is projected to win each riding, in the map’s colours (hatched: toss-up). A majority is 47 ridings, so the dashed line falls after each party’s 47th-best riding (the dot). The party’s chance there is a rough guide to its chance of a majority, not the same number: a majority can be won with other combinations of ridings, and polling errors move most ridings together. Hover over, tap or use the arrow keys on a chart to read off a riding.

All 93 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2024 results.

A gain: the projected leader is not the party that won the riding in 2024, toss-ups included.

All 93 ridings: 2024 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table; the buttons above it filter it.
Abbotsford South2024: Con 61.6%Con 61 (46–75) · NDP 38 (23–52)Conservative 61.6%ConLikely91%LikelyConservative61.0 (46–75)NDP37.5 (23–52)
Abbotsford West2024: Con 58.4%Con 58 (43–73) · NDP 38 (23–53)Conservative 58.4%ConLikely88%LikelyConservative57.9 (43–73)NDP37.9 (23–53)
Abbotsford-Mission2024: Con 55.4%Con 50 (35–65) · NDP 44 (28–58)Conservative 55.4%ConLeans66%LeansConservative50.1 (35–65)NDP43.6 (28–58)
Boundary-Similkameen2024: Con 48.4%Con 50 (36–64) · NDP 49 (34–63)Conservative 48.4%ConToss-up54%Toss-upConservative50.0 (36–64)NDP48.5 (34–63)
Bulkley Valley-Stikine2024: Con 52.3%Con 52 (38–66) · NDP 43 (30–57)Conservative 52.3%ConLeans70%LeansConservative51.6 (38–66)NDP43.3 (30–57)
Burnaby Centre2024: NDP 57.3%NDP 56 (43–70) · Con 41 (27–54)NDP 57.3%NDPLikely85%LikelyNDP56.4 (43–70)Conservative40.6 (27–54)
Burnaby East2024: NDP 51.8%NDP 52 (38–65) · Con 38 (25–52)NDP 51.8%NDPLikely81%LikelyNDP51.8 (38–65)Conservative38.4 (25–52)
Burnaby North2024: NDP 53.3%NDP 54 (40–68) · Con 43 (29–57)NDP 53.3%NDPLeans76%LeansNDP54.0 (40–68)Conservative43.2 (29–57)
Burnaby South-Metrotown2024: NDP 49.3%NDP 50 (36–64) · Con 41 (28–55)NDP 49.3%NDPLeans73%LeansNDP50.1 (36–64)Conservative41.2 (28–55)
Burnaby-New Westminster2024: NDP 60%NDP 61 (47–74) · Con 37 (24–51)NDP 60%NDPLikely93%LikelyNDP61.2 (47–74)Conservative37.1 (24–51)
Cariboo-Chilcotin2024: Con 69.6%Con 67 (53–81) · NDP 31 (17–45)Conservative 69.6%ConSolid98%SolidConservative67.3 (53–81)NDP30.9 (17–45)
Chilliwack North2024: Con 54.6%Con 53 (38–69) · NDP 41 (26–56)Conservative 54.6%ConLeans77%LeansConservative53.4 (38–69)NDP41.3 (26–56)
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake2024: Con 54.6%Con 54 (38–69) · NDP 47 (31–62)Conservative 54.6%ConLeans66%LeansConservative53.5 (38–69)NDP46.5 (31–62)
Columbia River-Revelstoke2024: Con 47.9%Con 47 (32–62) · NDP 44 (29–59)Conservative 47.9%ConToss-up56%Toss-upConservative46.7 (32–62)NDP44.1 (29–59)
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain2024: NDP 50.8%NDP 50 (36–64) · Con 47 (33–61)NDP 50.8%NDPToss-up59%Toss-upNDP50.0 (36–64)Conservative46.7 (33–61)
Coquitlam-Maillardville2024: NDP 51.8%NDP 52 (38–66) · Con 40 (27–54)NDP 51.8%NDPLeans79%LeansNDP52.4 (38–66)Conservative39.9 (27–54)
Courtenay-Comox2024: Con 38.8%NDP 38 (23–53) · Con 37 (23–53)Conservative 38.8%NDPgain from ConToss-up49%Toss-upNDP37.9 (23–53)Conservative37.4 (23–53)Green22.0 (10–35)
Cowichan Valley2024: NDP 40.5%NDP 40 (25–54) · Con 37 (23–51)NDP 40.5%NDPToss-up57%Toss-upNDP39.7 (25–54)Conservative36.5 (23–51)Green20.7 (9–34)
Delta North2024: NDP 52.7%NDP 57 (44–70) · Con 40 (27–54)NDP 52.7%NDPLikely86%LikelyNDP57.2 (44–70)Conservative40.1 (27–54)
Delta South2024: Con 55.1%Con 52 (38–66) · NDP 45 (31–59)Conservative 55.1%ConLeans70%LeansConservative52.3 (38–66)NDP44.9 (31–59)
Esquimalt-Colwood2024: NDP 51.5%NDP 51 (35–66) · Con 27 (14–42)NDP 51.5%NDPLikely91%LikelyNDP50.5 (35–66)Conservative27.4 (14–42)Green20.4 (8–34)
Fraser-Nicola2024: Con 54.3%Con 53 (38–68) · NDP 37 (22–51)Conservative 54.3%ConLikely85%LikelyConservative52.9 (38–68)NDP36.5 (22–51)Green10.3 (2–20)
Juan de Fuca-Malahat2024: NDP 38.8%NDP 37 (23–52) · Con 35 (21–50)NDP 38.8%NDPToss-up52%Toss-upNDP37.4 (23–52)Conservative34.9 (21–50)Green23.8 (11–37)
Kamloops Centre2024: Con 48.8%Con 45 (31–60) · NDP 40 (25–54)Conservative 48.8%ConLeans64%LeansConservative45.1 (31–60)NDP39.6 (25–54)Green11.0 (2–21)
Kamloops-North Thompson2024: Con 59.7%Con 59 (45–73) · NDP 39 (26–54)Conservative 59.7%ConLikely89%LikelyConservative59.2 (45–73)NDP38.9 (26–54)
Kelowna Centre2024: Con 42.8%NDP 49 (35–64) · Con 49 (35–64)Conservative 42.8%NDPgain from ConToss-up51%Toss-upNDP49.4 (35–64)Conservative49.1 (35–64)
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream2024: Con 53.9%Con 55 (40–70) · NDP 37 (23–52)Conservative 53.9%ConLikely87%LikelyConservative55.3 (40–70)NDP37.0 (23–52)
Kelowna-Mission2024: Con 51.5%Con 56 (41–70) · NDP 35 (22–50)Conservative 51.5%ConLikely90%LikelyConservative56.1 (41–70)NDP35.4 (22–50)
Kootenay Central2024: NDP 39.6%NDP 42 (27–57) · Con 36 (22–51)NDP 39.6%NDPLeans64%LeansNDP41.7 (27–57)Conservative36.0 (22–51)Green20.9 (9–33)
Kootenay-Monashee2024: NDP 52%NDP 52 (37–66) · Con 37 (23–52)NDP 52%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP51.7 (37–66)Conservative36.8 (23–52)Green10.0 (2–20)
Kootenay-Rockies2024: Con 42.7%Con 53 (38–68) · NDP 27 (13–40)Conservative 42.7%ConLikely95%LikelyConservative52.9 (38–68)NDP26.6 (13–40)CentreBC11.0 (2–21)
Ladysmith-Oceanside2024: NDP 41.5%NDP 46 (30–61) · Con 45 (30–60)NDP 41.5%NDPToss-up52%Toss-upNDP45.8 (30–61)Conservative45.1 (30–60)
Langford-Highlands2024: NDP 51.9%NDP 50 (35–64) · Con 35 (21–49)NDP 51.9%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP49.8 (35–64)Conservative34.5 (21–49)Green11.1 (2–22)
Langley-Abbotsford2024: Con 55.6%Con 54 (39–69) · NDP 34 (20–49)Conservative 55.6%ConLikely89%LikelyConservative53.9 (39–69)NDP34.2 (20–49)
Langley-Walnut Grove2024: Con 49.6%Con 47 (32–63) · NDP 44 (29–60)Conservative 49.6%ConToss-up57%Toss-upConservative47.3 (32–63)NDP44.4 (29–60)
Langley-Willowbrook2024: Con 48.2%Con 46 (30–61) · NDP 44 (29–59)Conservative 48.2%ConToss-up53%Toss-upConservative45.7 (30–61)NDP44.3 (29–59)
Maple Ridge East2024: Con 47%NDP 46 (30–60) · Con 45 (29–60)Conservative 47%NDPgain from ConToss-up53%Toss-upNDP45.6 (30–60)Conservative44.5 (29–60)
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows2024: NDP 54.9%NDP 55 (40–69) · Con 42 (27–57)NDP 54.9%NDPLeans77%LeansNDP54.8 (40–69)Conservative41.7 (27–57)
Mid Island-Pacific Rim2024: NDP 48.7%NDP 49 (34–64) · Con 38 (24–53)NDP 48.7%NDPLeans75%LeansNDP48.6 (34–64)Conservative38.3 (24–53)Green12.7 (3–24)
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island2024: NDP 52.7%NDP 52 (37–67) · Con 34 (20–48)NDP 52.7%NDPLikely88%LikelyNDP52.4 (37–67)Conservative33.6 (20–48)Green13.5 (3–25)
Nanaimo-Lantzville2024: NDP 51.7%NDP 50 (36–65) · Con 37 (23–52)NDP 51.7%NDPLeans80%LeansNDP50.4 (36–65)Conservative37.3 (23–52)
Nechako Lakes2024: Con 67.4%Con 66 (52–79) · NDP 31 (19–45)Conservative 67.4%ConSolid98%SolidConservative65.9 (52–79)NDP31.4 (19–45)
New Westminster-Coquitlam2024: NDP 59.1%NDP 58 (43–71) · Con 28 (16–41)NDP 59.1%NDPSolid97%SolidNDP57.5 (43–71)Conservative28.0 (16–41)Green11.7 (3–21)
North Coast-Haida Gwaii2024: NDP 64.9%NDP 64 (50–78) · Con 34 (20–48)NDP 64.9%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP64.3 (50–78)Conservative34.0 (20–48)
North Island2024: Con 47.1%Con 45 (30–59) · NDP 44 (29–58)Conservative 47.1%ConToss-up52%Toss-upConservative44.6 (30–59)NDP43.8 (29–58)
North Vancouver-Lonsdale2024: NDP 64.9%NDP 65 (51–78) · Con 34 (21–47)NDP 64.9%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP64.5 (51–78)Conservative34.0 (21–47)
North Vancouver-Seymour2024: NDP 52.8%NDP 53 (39–67) · Con 36 (22–49)NDP 52.8%NDPLikely88%LikelyNDP53.0 (39–67)Conservative35.7 (22–49)
Oak Bay-Gordon Head2024: NDP 49.1%NDP 48 (33–63) · Con 27 (14–42)NDP 49.1%NDPLikely88%LikelyNDP48.1 (33–63)Conservative27.0 (14–42)Green23.1 (10–37)
Peace River North2024: Con 74.4%Con 66 (23–86) · Jordan Kealy 34 (14–77)Conservative 74.4%ConLeans77%LeansConservative65.9 (23–86)Jordan Kealy34.1 (14–77)
Peace River South2024: Con 69.8%Con 82 (70–93) · NDP 14 (4–25)Conservative 69.8%ConSolid>99%SolidConservative82.3 (70–93)NDP13.7 (4–25)
Penticton-Summerland2024: Con 41.4%Con 51 (36–65) · NDP 41 (27–56)Conservative 41.4%ConLeans72%LeansConservative50.7 (36–65)NDP41.2 (27–56)
Port Coquitlam2024: NDP 53.9%NDP 53 (39–66) · Con 37 (24–50)NDP 53.9%NDPLikely86%LikelyNDP52.6 (39–66)Conservative36.7 (24–50)
Port Moody-Burquitlam2024: NDP 52.1%NDP 52 (37–65) · Con 39 (25–52)NDP 52.1%NDPLikely81%LikelyNDP51.5 (37–65)Conservative38.5 (25–52)
Powell River-Sunshine Coast2024: NDP 49.6%NDP 50 (36–64) · Con 35 (22–49)NDP 49.6%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP49.7 (36–64)Conservative35.2 (22–49)Green14.8 (5–26)
Prince George-Mackenzie2024: Con 60.9%Con 61 (46–75) · NDP 29 (16–43)Conservative 60.9%ConSolid97%SolidConservative60.8 (46–75)NDP29.1 (16–43)
Prince George-North Cariboo2024: Con 56.8%Con 70 (55–83) · NDP 23 (11–37)Conservative 56.8%ConSolid99%SolidConservative69.5 (55–83)NDP23.2 (11–37)
Prince George-Valemount2024: Con 55.2%Con 52 (38–67) · NDP 35 (21–49)Conservative 55.2%ConLikely86%LikelyConservative52.3 (38–67)NDP34.8 (21–49)Green11.0 (2–21)
Richmond Centre2024: Con 52%Con 56 (42–69) · NDP 39 (26–52)Conservative 52%ConLikely87%LikelyConservative56.0 (42–69)NDP39.0 (26–52)
Richmond-Bridgeport2024: Con 58.2%Con 61 (47–74) · NDP 39 (26–53)Conservative 58.2%ConLikely91%LikelyConservative60.6 (47–74)NDP39.4 (26–53)
Richmond-Queensborough2024: Con 50.9%Con 53 (39–66) · NDP 46 (32–59)Conservative 50.9%ConLeans68%LeansConservative52.7 (39–66)NDP45.6 (32–59)
Richmond-Steveston2024: NDP 44.3%NDP 47 (33–60) · Con 45 (31–58)NDP 44.3%NDPToss-up57%Toss-upNDP47.2 (33–60)Conservative44.5 (31–58)
Saanich North and the Islands2024: Grn 36.2%Grn 38 (22–53) · NDP 31 (17–47)Green 36.2%GrnToss-up56%Toss-upGreen37.8 (22–53)NDP31.3 (17–47)Conservative28.6 (15–44)
Saanich South2024: NDP 49.8%NDP 49 (34–64) · Con 31 (18–46)NDP 49.8%NDPLikely87%LikelyNDP49.4 (34–64)Conservative31.4 (18–46)Green18.9 (7–32)
Salmon Arm-Shuswap2024: Con 52.1%Con 53 (38–68) · NDP 32 (17–46)Conservative 52.1%ConLikely91%LikelyConservative53.0 (38–68)NDP31.5 (17–46)
Skeena2024: Con 51.2%Con 49 (34–64) · NDP 45 (30–60)Conservative 51.2%ConLeans60%LeansConservative49.2 (34–64)NDP45.0 (30–60)
Surrey City Centre2024: NDP 46.7%NDP 51 (37–65) · Con 44 (31–58)NDP 46.7%NDPLeans67%LeansNDP51.0 (37–65)Conservative44.3 (31–58)
Surrey North2024: Con 50.7%Con 46 (32–60) · NDP 42 (28–55)Conservative 50.7%ConLeans63%LeansConservative46.4 (32–60)NDP41.6 (28–55)
Surrey South2024: Con 58.8%Con 55 (41–68) · NDP 39 (26–53)Conservative 58.8%ConLikely84%LikelyConservative54.6 (41–68)NDP39.3 (26–53)
Surrey-Cloverdale2024: Con 48.3%NDP 45 (31–59) · Con 45 (31–60)Conservative 48.3%NDPgain from ConToss-up50%Toss-upNDP45.3 (31–59)Conservative45.2 (31–60)
Surrey-Fleetwood2024: NDP 48.6%NDP 48 (34–62) · Con 42 (28–56)NDP 48.6%NDPLeans66%LeansNDP47.9 (34–62)Conservative41.6 (28–56)
Surrey-Guildford2024: NDP 46.9%NDP 46 (32–60) · Con 46 (32–59)NDP 46.9%NDPToss-up52%Toss-upNDP46.4 (32–60)Conservative45.6 (32–59)
Surrey-Newton2024: NDP 51.2%NDP 53 (39–67) · Con 44 (30–58)NDP 51.2%NDPLeans73%LeansNDP53.3 (39–67)Conservative43.5 (30–58)
Surrey-Panorama2024: Con 49.6%NDP 48 (34–62) · Con 48 (34–62)Conservative 49.6%NDPgain from ConToss-up51%Toss-upNDP48.4 (34–62)Conservative48.3 (34–62)
Surrey-Serpentine River2024: Con 49.7%NDP 47 (33–60) · Con 46 (33–60)Conservative 49.7%NDPgain from ConToss-up51%Toss-upNDP46.6 (33–60)Conservative46.3 (33–60)
Surrey-White Rock2024: Con 52.3%Con 48 (34–61) · NDP 43 (29–57)Conservative 52.3%ConLeans61%LeansConservative47.5 (34–61)NDP43.2 (29–57)
Vancouver-Fraserview2024: NDP 57.2%NDP 57 (43–71) · Con 36 (23–49)NDP 57.2%NDPLikely92%LikelyNDP57.3 (43–71)Conservative35.5 (23–49)
Vancouver-Hastings2024: NDP 64.1%NDP 62 (48–75) · Con 23 (11–35)NDP 64.1%NDPSolid99%SolidNDP62.0 (48–75)Conservative22.5 (11–35)Green11.4 (3–21)
Vancouver-Kensington2024: NDP 60.9%NDP 61 (47–74) · Con 30 (18–44)NDP 60.9%NDPSolid97%SolidNDP60.8 (47–74)Conservative30.4 (18–44)
Vancouver-Langara2024: NDP 48.4%NDP 48 (34–62) · Con 44 (30–58)NDP 48.4%NDPLeans61%LeansNDP48.0 (34–62)Conservative43.7 (30–58)
Vancouver-Little Mountain2024: NDP 62.1%NDP 62 (48–75) · Con 30 (17–43)NDP 62.1%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP62.0 (48–75)Conservative29.6 (17–43)
Vancouver-Point Grey2024: NDP 56.8%NDP 56 (42–70) · Con 33 (20–46)NDP 56.8%NDPLikely93%LikelyNDP56.1 (42–70)Conservative32.7 (20–46)
Vancouver-Quilchena2024: Con 51.6%Con 49 (34–63) · NDP 39 (25–52)Conservative 51.6%ConLeans75%LeansConservative48.6 (34–63)NDP38.5 (25–52)
Vancouver-Renfrew2024: NDP 63.2%NDP 63 (48–76) · Con 29 (16–42)NDP 63.2%NDPSolid97%SolidNDP62.6 (48–76)Conservative29.0 (16–42)
Vancouver-South Granville2024: NDP 64.3%NDP 64 (49–77) · Con 23 (11–36)NDP 64.3%NDPSolid99%SolidNDP63.5 (49–77)Conservative22.6 (11–36)Green11.6 (3–21)
Vancouver-Strathcona2024: NDP 68.2%NDP 66 (52–79) · Con 16 (6–27)NDP 68.2%NDPSolid>99%SolidNDP66.1 (52–79)Conservative15.8 (6–27)Green13.7 (5–24)
Vancouver-West End2024: NDP 63%NDP 63 (49–76) · Con 27 (15–40)NDP 63%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP63.0 (49–76)Conservative26.7 (15–40)Green10.0 (2–19)
Vancouver-Yaletown2024: NDP 49.8%NDP 49 (35–63) · Con 41 (28–55)NDP 49.8%NDPLeans70%LeansNDP49.1 (35–63)Conservative41.3 (28–55)
Vernon-Lumby2024: NDP 42.7%Con 54 (39–69) · NDP 43 (28–57)NDP 42.7%Congain from NDPLeans75%LeansConservative54.0 (39–69)NDP42.7 (28–57)
Victoria-Beacon Hill2024: NDP 47.4%NDP 46 (31–62) · Grn 35 (20–50)NDP 47.4%NDPLeans76%LeansNDP46.4 (31–62)Green35.2 (20–50)Conservative18.2 (7–32)
Victoria-Swan Lake2024: NDP 56%NDP 56 (40–71) · Grn 25 (11–38)NDP 56%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP55.5 (40–71)Green24.6 (11–38)Conservative19.5 (7–33)
West Kelowna-Peachland2024: Con 50.9%Con 63 (49–77) · NDP 34 (20–48)Conservative 50.9%ConSolid96%SolidConservative63.2 (49–77)NDP33.8 (20–48)
West Vancouver-Capilano2024: Con 46.7%Con 57 (44–71) · NDP 33 (20–46)Conservative 46.7%ConLikely94%LikelyConservative57.4 (44–71)NDP32.8 (20–46)
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky2024: Grn 38.1%Grn 40 (24–54) · Con 33 (20–48)Green 38.1%GrnLeans64%LeansGreen39.9 (24–54)Conservative33.1 (20–48)NDP25.3 (13–39)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 9 Jun 2025, with the spread of recent polls
PartyAverageSpreadChange
Conservative41.338.9–43.7−0.5
NDP44.143.1–45.1−0.9
Green9.17.5–10.7−0.5
OneBC1.01.0–1.0+1.0
CentreBC2.02.0–2.0+2.0
Others2.5 −1.1

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 9 Jun 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 25 May 2025, in points.

Polls included (6)

The 6 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterConNDPGrnOneBCCentre
9 JunResearch Co.New803±3.54243812
25 MayLeger1,032±3.0394511––
4 MayLiaison Strategies800±3.547457––
5 MarResearch Co.802±3.5424411––
15 FebPallas Data677±3.840.748.87.6––
26 JanLeger1,001±3.1424410––

Province-wide polls published since the 2024 election, up to this projection, from the polling tables on Wikipedia. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party. MoE: the margin of error as the pollster published it, in points, 19 times out of 20; a dash where none was published. Online panels are not random samples, so for them it is the margin of error of a random sample of the same size, given for comparison.

Projections since the 2024 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

0208047Apr 2025JulOct2026AprJulOctElection dayCon 54NDP 37Grn 1

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

0255075100%Apr 2025JulOct2026AprJulOctCon 76%NDP 19%Minority 4%

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 47 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 45 projections, to 3 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionConNDPGrnCon maj.NDP maj.
23 Oct 2026Pallas Data, Mainstreet Research, Research Co.5437176%19%4%
22 Oct 2026Mainstreet Research, Pollara, Pollara, Ipsos, Leger5437176%20%4%
19 Oct 2026Mainstreet Research, Pollara, Angus Reid, Innovative Research5438174%22%5%
13 Oct 2026Pollara5338173%22%5%
12 Oct 2026Leger5338172%24%5%
11 Oct 2026Pollara, Ipsos, Pallas Data, Research Co.5338172%23%5%
8 Oct 2026Liaison Strategies5239168%26%6%
3 Oct 2026Angus Reid5140165%29%6%
44 earlier projections
Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionConNDPGrnCon maj.NDP maj.
1 Oct 2026Mainstreet Research5041263%30%7%
30 Sep 2026Pollara4942257%35%7%
29 Sep 2026Ipsos4942257%36%7%
28 Sep 2026Innovative Research, Leger4744251%41%8%
27 Sep 2026Liaison Strategies4446342%47%12%
24 Sep 2026Angus Reid4247335%54%12%
18 Sep 2026Innovative Research3852322%69%9%
15 Sep 2026Angus Reid3852222%70%8%
14 Sep 2026Ipsos3753221%73%7%
14 Aug 2026Research Co.4545246%44%11%
8 Aug 2026604 Polling4743352%36%11%
3 Aug 2026Yorkville Strategies3852222%70%8%
17 Jul 2026Fairview Strategy4347238%51%11%
12 Jun 2026Angus Reid5536278%17%5%
5 Jun 2026Research Co.5140167%27%6%
2 Jun 2026Leger5239268%25%7%
28 Apr 2026Angus Reid5039363%25%12%
13 Apr 2026Mainstreet Research4445342%45%13%
6 Apr 2026Leger4644248%43%9%
17 Mar 2026Angus Reid5040263%28%8%
13 Mar 2026Mainstreet Research5040261%29%9%
3 Mar 2026Innovative Research5040263%28%8%
27 Feb 2026Pallas Data4644249%42%10%
24 Feb 2026One Persuasion4644247%43%10%
14 Feb 2026Pallas Data4050228%63%8%
9 Feb 2026Leger4150130%64%6%
26 Jan 2026Leger4249233%60%7%
18 Dec 2025Mainstreet Research4545246%46%8%
13 Dec 2025Pallas Data4348239%55%7%
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid4447241%52%7%
25 Nov 2025EKOS, Yorkville Strategies4348139%54%7%
25 Oct 2025Angus Reid4150230%64%7%
15 Oct 2025Abacus Data3853222%73%5%
12 Oct 2025Leger3952225%69%6%
6 Oct 2025Cardinal Research4348236%55%9%
3 Oct 2025Research Co.4050228%63%9%
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid4843255%37%8%
24 Jun 2025Mainstreet Research4745151%44%6%
9 Jun 2025 (this page)Research Co.4249234%60%6%
25 May 2025Leger4051228%66%6%
4 May 2025Liaison Strategies4943158%38%4%
5 Mar 2025Research Co.3952224%70%6%
15 Feb 2025Pallas Data3754120%76%4%
26 Jan 2025Leger4249233%59%8%

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2024 result in each of the 93 ridings, whose boundaries are unchanged for 2026. It moves each riding by the change in the site’s polling average since that election, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2024 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. OneBC and CentreBC, which did not run in 2024, enter where the Conservatives were strong. A party with no candidate in a riding gets no votes there; its voters are divided among the others. Recent regional poll results shift Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island and the rest of the province relative to one another.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections. In those tests the method’s projected leader won 85.5% of ridings, and its 90% ranges contained each party’s actual seat total 94.9% of the time. Candidates’ personal appeal, local campaigns and late shifts in opinion are not modelled.

Full methodology · The 2026 election page