British Columbia seat projection, 5 March 2025
Projection, not a poll
As of 5 March 2025, from 3 polls · election day 24 October 2026
Each riding’s 2024 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.
An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 8 October 2026.
Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 5 March 2025.
Seats
In 10,000 simulations, the NDP win a median of 52 seats (90% range 32–70) and a majority in 70%; the Conservatives 39 seats (90% range 21–59) and a majority in 24%; the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–4). No party wins a majority in 6%.
NDP majority
70%
Most seats in 72% of simulations
Conservative majority
24%
Most seats in 26% of simulations
No majority
6%
20 ridings with no party above 60%
47 for a majority
Conservative
39 seats (21–59) · majority 24%
39 seats (21–59) · majority 24%
NDP
52 seats (32–70) · majority 70%
52 seats (32–70) · majority 70%
Green
2 seats (0–4)
2 seats (0–4)
Others
0 seats (0–1)
0 seats (0–1)
Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 47 of 93 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties. OneBC and CentreBC win no seat in the median simulation.
What changed
New poll
- Research Co., fieldwork to 5 Mar 2025, 802 respondentsNDP 44 · Conservative 42 · Green 11
Change since 15 Feb 2025
- Median seats: Conservative +2, NDP −2, Green +1.
- Chance of a majority, in points: Conservative +4, NDP −6; no majority +2.
- Projected leader changed in 1 riding: Langley-Walnut Grove (NDP to Conservative).
Projected leader by riding
Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.
| Con | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solid 95%+ | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Likely 80–95% | 14 | 19 | 0 |
| Leans 60–80% | 9 | 12 | 1 |
| Toss-up <60% | 20 | ||
British Columbia
Lower Mainland
Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond
Greater Victoria
Kelowna
All 93 ridings
Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2024 results.
| Projected share (90% range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford SouthFraser Valley · 2024: Con 61.6%Con 61 (46–76) · NDP 39 (24–54) | Conservative 61.6% | ConConservativeLikely | 90% | Likely | Conservative61.3 (46–76)NDP38.6 (24–54) |
| Abbotsford WestFraser Valley · 2024: Con 58.4%Con 59 (44–75) · NDP 41 (25–56) | Conservative 58.4% | ConConservativeLikely | 86% | Likely | Conservative59.3 (44–75)NDP40.5 (25–56) |
| Abbotsford-MissionFraser Valley · 2024: Con 55.4%Con 51 (35–66) · NDP 46 (30–61) | Conservative 55.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 63% | Leans | Conservative51.0 (35–66)NDP45.7 (30–61) |
| Boundary-SimilkameenInterior and North · 2024: Con 48.4%NDP 50 (35–65) · Con 50 (35–64) | Conservative 48.4% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | NDP50.1 (35–65)Conservative49.6 (35–64) |
| Bulkley Valley-StikineInterior and North · 2024: Con 52.3%Con 50 (36–64) · NDP 44 (31–59) | Conservative 52.3% | ConConservativeLeans | 64% | Leans | Conservative50.0 (36–64)NDP44.3 (31–59) |
| Burnaby CentreMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 57.3%NDP 59 (45–72) · Con 40 (26–54) | NDP 57.3% | NDPNDPLikely | 88% | Likely | NDP58.8 (45–72)Conservative39.8 (26–54) |
| Burnaby EastMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 51.8%NDP 53 (39–67) · Con 38 (24–52) | NDP 51.8% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP53.2 (39–67)Conservative37.6 (24–52) |
| Burnaby NorthMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 53.3%NDP 56 (41–70) · Con 43 (29–57) | NDP 53.3% | NDPNDPLeans | 80% | Leans | NDP55.7 (41–70)Conservative42.7 (29–57) |
| Burnaby South-MetrotownMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 49.3%NDP 52 (37–66) · Con 41 (27–55) | NDP 49.3% | NDPNDPLeans | 77% | Leans | NDP51.6 (37–66)Conservative40.5 (27–55) |
| Burnaby-New WestminsterMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 60%NDP 63 (49–76) · Con 35 (22–49) | NDP 60% | NDPNDPSolid | 95% | Solid | NDP63.0 (49–76)Conservative35.3 (22–49) |
| Cariboo-ChilcotinInterior and North · 2024: Con 69.6%Con 67 (52–81) · NDP 32 (18–46) | Conservative 69.6% | ConConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Conservative66.8 (52–81)NDP31.6 (18–46) |
| Chilliwack NorthFraser Valley · 2024: Con 54.6%Con 55 (39–70) · NDP 45 (29–60) | Conservative 54.6% | ConConservativeLeans | 72% | Leans | Conservative54.5 (39–70)NDP44.6 (29–60) |
| Chilliwack-Cultus LakeFraser Valley · 2024: Con 54.6%Con 52 (36–68) · NDP 48 (32–64) | Conservative 54.6% | ConConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Conservative52.0 (36–68)NDP48.0 (32–64) |
| Columbia River-RevelstokeInterior and North · 2024: Con 47.9%NDP 45 (30–61) · Con 45 (30–60) | Conservative 47.9% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | NDP45.4 (30–61)Conservative45.1 (30–60) |
| Coquitlam-Burke MountainMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 50.8%NDP 52 (38–66) · Con 46 (32–61) | NDP 50.8% | NDPNDPLeans | 65% | Leans | NDP52.4 (38–66)Conservative46.3 (32–61) |
| Coquitlam-MaillardvilleMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 51.8%NDP 54 (40–68) · Con 38 (25–52) | NDP 51.8% | NDPNDPLikely | 84% | Likely | NDP53.7 (40–68)Conservative38.1 (25–52) |
| Courtenay-ComoxVancouver Island · 2024: Con 38.8%NDP 40 (25–55) · Con 37 (22–52) | Conservative 38.8% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | NDP39.5 (25–55)Conservative36.7 (22–52)Green23.3 (11–37) |
| Cowichan ValleyVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 40.5%NDP 40 (26–55) · Con 35 (21–49) | NDP 40.5% | NDPNDPLeans | 63% | Leans | NDP40.4 (26–55)Conservative34.5 (21–49)Green21.5 (10–35) |
| Delta NorthMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 52.7%NDP 60 (46–73) · Con 39 (26–53) | NDP 52.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 90% | Likely | NDP59.6 (46–73)Conservative39.3 (26–53) |
| Delta SouthMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 55.1%Con 52 (38–66) · NDP 47 (33–60) | Conservative 55.1% | ConConservativeLeans | 65% | Leans | Conservative52.2 (38–66)NDP46.5 (33–60) |
| Esquimalt-ColwoodVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 51.5%NDP 52 (37–67) · Con 26 (13–41) | NDP 51.5% | NDPNDPLikely | 93% | Likely | NDP52.0 (37–67)Conservative26.1 (13–41)Green21.5 (9–35) |
| Fraser-NicolaInterior and North · 2024: Con 54.3%Con 52 (37–67) · NDP 37 (23–52) | Conservative 54.3% | ConConservativeLikely | 81% | Likely | Conservative51.5 (37–67)NDP37.3 (23–52)Green10.8 (2–21) |
| Juan de Fuca-MalahatVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 38.8%NDP 38 (23–53) · Con 34 (20–49) | NDP 38.8% | NDPNDPToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | NDP38.0 (23–53)Conservative33.8 (20–49)Green24.8 (12–39) |
| Kamloops CentreInterior and North · 2024: Con 48.8%Con 44 (30–59) · NDP 41 (26–55) | Conservative 48.8% | ConConservativeToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Conservative44.4 (30–59)NDP40.5 (26–55)Green11.5 (3–22) |
| Kamloops-North ThompsonInterior and North · 2024: Con 59.7%Con 59 (44–73) · NDP 40 (27–55) | Conservative 59.7% | ConConservativeLikely | 87% | Likely | Conservative59.4 (44–73)NDP40.3 (27–55) |
| Kelowna CentreInterior and North · 2024: Con 42.8%NDP 51 (36–66) · Con 49 (34–64) | Conservative 42.8% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | NDP51.1 (36–66)Conservative48.7 (34–64) |
| Kelowna-Lake Country-ColdstreamInterior and North · 2024: Con 53.9%Con 56 (40–70) · NDP 38 (24–53) | Conservative 53.9% | ConConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Conservative55.5 (40–70)NDP38.1 (24–53) |
| Kelowna-MissionInterior and North · 2024: Con 51.5%Con 56 (41–71) · NDP 36 (22–51) | Conservative 51.5% | ConConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Conservative56.2 (41–71)NDP36.4 (22–51) |
| Kootenay CentralInterior and North · 2024: NDP 39.6%NDP 43 (28–58) · Con 35 (21–51) | NDP 39.6% | NDPNDPLeans | 68% | Leans | NDP42.8 (28–58)Conservative35.1 (21–51)Green21.9 (10–34) |
| Kootenay-MonasheeInterior and North · 2024: NDP 52%NDP 53 (38–68) · Con 36 (22–51) | NDP 52% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP53.1 (38–68)Conservative35.9 (22–51)Green10.6 (2–21) |
| Kootenay-RockiesInterior and North · 2024: Con 42.7%Con 60 (45–75) · NDP 31 (17–45) | Conservative 42.7% | ConConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Conservative60.2 (45–75)NDP30.7 (17–45) |
| Ladysmith-OceansideVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 41.5%NDP 47 (31–62) · Con 43 (28–59) | NDP 41.5% | NDPNDPToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | NDP47.0 (31–62)Conservative43.4 (28–59) |
| Langford-HighlandsVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 51.9%NDP 51 (36–66) · Con 33 (20–48) | NDP 51.9% | NDPNDPLikely | 87% | Likely | NDP51.3 (36–66)Conservative33.2 (20–48)Green11.8 (2–23) |
| Langley-AbbotsfordFraser Valley · 2024: Con 55.6%Con 54 (38–69) · NDP 35 (21–50) | Conservative 55.6% | ConConservativeLikely | 87% | Likely | Conservative53.8 (38–69)NDP35.0 (21–50) |
| Langley-Walnut GroveFraser Valley · 2024: Con 49.6%Con 47 (31–62) · NDP 47 (31–62) | Conservative 49.6% | ConConservativeToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | Conservative47.0 (31–62)NDP46.5 (31–62) |
| Langley-WillowbrookFraser Valley · 2024: Con 48.2%NDP 46 (30–61) · Con 45 (30–61) | Conservative 48.2% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 51% | Toss-up | NDP45.7 (30–61)Conservative45.2 (30–61) |
| Maple Ridge EastFraser Valley · 2024: Con 47%NDP 47 (31–62) · Con 43 (27–58) | Conservative 47% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | NDP46.6 (31–62)Conservative42.7 (27–58) |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt MeadowsFraser Valley · 2024: NDP 54.9%NDP 58 (43–72) · Con 42 (27–57) | NDP 54.9% | NDPNDPLikely | 81% | Likely | NDP57.5 (43–72)Conservative42.3 (27–57) |
| Mid Island-Pacific RimVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 48.7%NDP 50 (34–65) · Con 36 (22–51) | NDP 48.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 80% | Likely | NDP49.8 (34–65)Conservative36.4 (22–51)Green13.4 (3–25) |
| Nanaimo-Gabriola IslandVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 52.7%NDP 54 (39–69) · Con 32 (18–46) | NDP 52.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 91% | Likely | NDP53.7 (39–69)Conservative31.6 (18–46)Green14.2 (4–26) |
| Nanaimo-LantzvilleVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 51.7%NDP 52 (36–66) · Con 35 (21–50) | NDP 51.7% | NDPNDPLikely | 84% | Likely | NDP51.5 (36–66)Conservative35.4 (21–50) |
| Nechako LakesInterior and North · 2024: Con 67.4%Con 65 (50–78) · NDP 32 (19–46) | Conservative 67.4% | ConConservativeSolid | 97% | Solid | Conservative64.7 (50–78)NDP32.1 (19–46) |
| New Westminster-CoquitlamMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 59.1%NDP 59 (44–72) · Con 26 (14–39) | NDP 59.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP58.5 (44–72)Conservative26.0 (14–39)Green12.2 (3–22) |
| North Coast-Haida GwaiiInterior and North · 2024: NDP 64.9%NDP 66 (52–80) · Con 32 (18–47) | NDP 64.9% | NDPNDPSolid | 97% | Solid | NDP66.3 (52–80)Conservative32.1 (18–47) |
| North IslandVancouver Island · 2024: Con 47.1%NDP 45 (30–60) · Con 43 (28–58) | Conservative 47.1% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 55% | Toss-up | NDP44.8 (30–60)Conservative42.8 (28–58) |
| North Vancouver-LonsdaleMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 64.9%NDP 66 (53–79) · Con 32 (19–46) | NDP 64.9% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP66.4 (53–79)Conservative32.3 (19–46) |
| North Vancouver-SeymourMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 52.8%NDP 56 (42–70) · Con 37 (23–51) | NDP 52.8% | NDPNDPLikely | 89% | Likely | NDP55.6 (42–70)Conservative36.7 (23–51) |
| Oak Bay-Gordon HeadVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 49.1%NDP 50 (34–65) · Con 26 (13–40) | NDP 49.1% | NDPNDPLikely | 90% | Likely | NDP49.5 (34–65)Conservative25.7 (13–40)Green24.4 (11–38) |
| Peace River NorthInterior and North · 2024: Con 74.4%Con 65 (22–86) · Jordan Kealy 35 (14–78) | Conservative 74.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 76% | Leans | Conservative65.2 (22–86)Jordan Kealy34.8 (14–78) |
| Peace River SouthInterior and North · 2024: Con 69.8%Con 82 (70–93) · NDP 13 (3–25) | Conservative 69.8% | ConConservativeSolid | >99% | Solid | Conservative82.2 (70–93)NDP13.2 (3–25) |
| Penticton-SummerlandInterior and North · 2024: Con 41.4%Con 51 (35–66) · NDP 43 (28–58) | Conservative 41.4% | ConConservativeLeans | 69% | Leans | Conservative50.5 (35–66)NDP42.5 (28–58) |
| Port CoquitlamMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 53.9%NDP 54 (40–67) · Con 35 (22–48) | NDP 53.9% | NDPNDPLikely | 89% | Likely | NDP53.7 (40–67)Conservative34.8 (22–48) |
| Port Moody-BurquitlamMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 52.1%NDP 54 (39–68) · Con 38 (24–52) | NDP 52.1% | NDPNDPLikely | 85% | Likely | NDP53.5 (39–68)Conservative37.6 (24–52) |
| Powell River-Sunshine CoastMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 49.6%NDP 51 (37–65) · Con 33 (20–47) | NDP 49.6% | NDPNDPLikely | 88% | Likely | NDP51.0 (37–65)Conservative33.3 (20–47)Green15.5 (6–27) |
| Prince George-MackenzieInterior and North · 2024: Con 60.9%Con 60 (44–74) · NDP 30 (16–44) | Conservative 60.9% | ConConservativeSolid | 96% | Solid | Conservative59.8 (44–74)NDP29.7 (16–44)Green10.1 (2–20) |
| Prince George-North CaribooInterior and North · 2024: Con 56.8%Con 69 (54–83) · NDP 23 (11–38) | Conservative 56.8% | ConConservativeSolid | 99% | Solid | Conservative68.9 (54–83)NDP23.4 (11–38) |
| Prince George-ValemountInterior and North · 2024: Con 55.2%Con 52 (37–67) · NDP 36 (22–51) | Conservative 55.2% | ConConservativeLikely | 85% | Likely | Conservative52.1 (37–67)NDP35.9 (22–51)Green11.5 (2–22) |
| Richmond CentreMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 52%Con 55 (41–68) · NDP 40 (26–53) | Conservative 52% | ConConservativeLikely | 83% | Likely | Conservative54.6 (41–68)NDP39.9 (26–53) |
| Richmond-BridgeportMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 58.2%Con 59 (45–73) · NDP 41 (27–55) | Conservative 58.2% | ConConservativeLikely | 88% | Likely | Conservative59.4 (45–73)NDP40.6 (27–55) |
| Richmond-QueensboroughMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 50.9%Con 51 (37–65) · NDP 47 (33–61) | Conservative 50.9% | ConConservativeLeans | 61% | Leans | Conservative51.4 (37–65)NDP47.0 (33–61) |
| Richmond-StevestonMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 44.3%NDP 50 (36–64) · Con 46 (32–59) | NDP 44.3% | NDPNDPLeans | 61% | Leans | NDP49.9 (36–64)Conservative45.8 (32–59) |
| Saanich North and the IslandsVancouver Island · 2024: Grn 36.2%Grn 40 (24–55) · NDP 32 (18–48) | Green 36.2% | GrnGreenToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | Green39.5 (24–55)NDP32.4 (18–48)Conservative27.5 (14–43) |
| Saanich SouthVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 49.8%NDP 51 (35–66) · Con 29 (16–44) | NDP 49.8% | NDPNDPLikely | 89% | Likely | NDP50.5 (35–66)Conservative29.4 (16–44)Green19.8 (8–33) |
| Salmon Arm-ShuswapInterior and North · 2024: Con 52.1%Con 56 (41–71) · NDP 34 (19–49) | Conservative 52.1% | ConConservativeLikely | 91% | Likely | Conservative56.3 (41–71)NDP34.1 (19–49) |
| SkeenaInterior and North · 2024: Con 51.2%Con 49 (34–64) · NDP 47 (31–61) | Conservative 51.2% | ConConservativeToss-up | 56% | Toss-up | Conservative48.9 (34–64)NDP46.5 (31–61) |
| Surrey City CentreMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 46.7%NDP 54 (40–67) · Con 45 (31–59) | NDP 46.7% | NDPNDPLeans | 71% | Leans | NDP53.7 (40–67)Conservative45.1 (31–59) |
| Surrey NorthMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 50.7%Con 47 (33–60) · NDP 44 (30–57) | Conservative 50.7% | ConConservativeToss-up | 59% | Toss-up | Conservative47.0 (33–60)NDP43.6 (30–57) |
| Surrey SouthMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 58.8%Con 54 (40–68) · NDP 41 (28–55) | Conservative 58.8% | ConConservativeLikely | 81% | Likely | Conservative54.4 (40–68)NDP41.2 (28–55) |
| Surrey-CloverdaleMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 48.3%NDP 47 (33–61) · Con 46 (32–60) | Conservative 48.3% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | NDP47.4 (33–61)Conservative45.7 (32–60) |
| Surrey-FleetwoodMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 48.6%NDP 50 (36–64) · Con 42 (28–56) | NDP 48.6% | NDPNDPLeans | 70% | Leans | NDP50.1 (36–64)Conservative42.0 (28–56) |
| Surrey-GuildfordMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 46.9%NDP 47 (33–62) · Con 44 (30–58) | NDP 46.9% | NDPNDPToss-up | 60% | Toss-up | NDP47.4 (33–62)Conservative43.9 (30–58) |
| Surrey-NewtonMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 51.2%NDP 56 (42–70) · Con 44 (30–58) | NDP 51.2% | NDPNDPLeans | 78% | Leans | NDP56.2 (42–70)Conservative43.7 (30–58) |
| Surrey-PanoramaMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 49.6%NDP 51 (36–65) · Con 48 (34–62) | Conservative 49.6% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | NDP50.8 (36–65)Conservative47.8 (34–62) |
| Surrey-Serpentine RiverMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 49.7%NDP 49 (35–63) · Con 48 (34–61) | Conservative 49.7% | NDPNDPgain from ConToss-up | 54% | Toss-up | NDP49.0 (35–63)Conservative47.5 (34–61) |
| Surrey-White RockMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 52.3%Con 48 (34–62) · NDP 45 (31–59) | Conservative 52.3% | ConConservativeToss-up | 58% | Toss-up | Conservative48.1 (34–62)NDP45.3 (31–59) |
| Vancouver-FraserviewMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 57.2%NDP 59 (44–72) · Con 34 (20–47) | NDP 57.2% | NDPNDPLikely | 94% | Likely | NDP58.8 (44–72)Conservative33.7 (20–47) |
| Vancouver-HastingsMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 64.1%NDP 64 (50–76) · Con 21 (10–34) | NDP 64.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP63.5 (50–76)Conservative21.2 (10–34)Green12.1 (3–22) |
| Vancouver-KensingtonMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 60.9%NDP 62 (48–76) · Con 29 (16–42) | NDP 60.9% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP62.3 (48–76)Conservative28.5 (16–42) |
| Vancouver-LangaraMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 48.4%NDP 50 (36–64) · Con 43 (29–57) | NDP 48.4% | NDPNDPLeans | 68% | Leans | NDP50.0 (36–64)Conservative43.1 (29–57) |
| Vancouver-Little MountainMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 62.1%NDP 64 (49–77) · Con 28 (15–41) | NDP 62.1% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP63.5 (49–77)Conservative27.6 (15–41) |
| Vancouver-Point GreyMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 56.8%NDP 58 (44–72) · Con 32 (18–45) | NDP 56.8% | NDPNDPLikely | 95% | Likely | NDP58.1 (44–72)Conservative31.5 (18–45)Green10.1 (2–20) |
| Vancouver-QuilchenaMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 51.6%Con 50 (35–64) · NDP 41 (27–55) | Conservative 51.6% | ConConservativeLeans | 73% | Leans | Conservative49.8 (35–64)NDP40.6 (27–55) |
| Vancouver-RenfrewMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 63.2%NDP 65 (50–78) · Con 28 (15–41) | NDP 63.2% | NDPNDPSolid | 98% | Solid | NDP64.7 (50–78)Conservative27.8 (15–41) |
| Vancouver-South GranvilleMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 64.3%NDP 65 (51–79) · Con 22 (10–35) | NDP 64.3% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP65.4 (51–79)Conservative22.0 (10–35)Green12.3 (4–22) |
| Vancouver-StrathconaMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 68.2%NDP 67 (53–80) · Grn 14 (5–25) | NDP 68.2% | NDPNDPSolid | >99% | Solid | NDP67.0 (53–80)Green14.3 (5–25)Conservative13.8 (4–25) |
| Vancouver-West EndMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 63%NDP 64 (50–78) · Con 25 (13–38) | NDP 63% | NDPNDPSolid | 99% | Solid | NDP64.4 (50–78)Conservative24.7 (13–38)Green10.5 (2–20) |
| Vancouver-YaletownMetro Vancouver · 2024: NDP 49.8%NDP 51 (37–65) · Con 40 (27–55) | NDP 49.8% | NDPNDPLeans | 76% | Leans | NDP51.1 (37–65)Conservative40.4 (27–55) |
| Vernon-LumbyInterior and North · 2024: NDP 42.7%Con 54 (39–69) · NDP 44 (29–59) | NDP 42.7% | ConConservativegain from NDPLeans | 72% | Leans | Conservative54.1 (39–69)NDP44.2 (29–59) |
| Victoria-Beacon HillVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 47.4%NDP 47 (31–63) · Grn 37 (21–52) | NDP 47.4% | NDPNDPLeans | 74% | Leans | NDP47.1 (31–63)Green36.6 (21–52)Conservative16.1 (5–30) |
| Victoria-Swan LakeVancouver Island · 2024: NDP 56%NDP 57 (41–72) · Grn 26 (12–40) | NDP 56% | NDPNDPSolid | 96% | Solid | NDP56.5 (41–72)Green25.6 (12–40)Conservative17.4 (5–31) |
| West Kelowna-PeachlandInterior and North · 2024: Con 50.9%Con 62 (47–77) · NDP 35 (21–49) | Conservative 50.9% | ConConservativeLikely | 94% | Likely | Conservative62.3 (47–77)NDP34.7 (21–49) |
| West Vancouver-CapilanoMetro Vancouver · 2024: Con 46.7%Con 58 (44–71) · NDP 34 (20–47) | Conservative 46.7% | ConConservativeLikely | 93% | Likely | Conservative57.5 (44–71)NDP33.7 (20–47) |
| West Vancouver-Sea to SkyMetro Vancouver · 2024: Grn 38.1%Grn 42 (26–56) · Con 32 (19–47) | Green 38.1% | GrnGreenLeans | 70% | Leans | Green41.6 (26–56)Conservative31.9 (19–47)NDP26.2 (14–40) |
Polls
The polling average used
| Party | Average | Spread | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 41.6 | 40.9–42.2 | +0.3 |
| NDP | 45.7 | 43.4–47.9 | −1.1 |
| Green | 9.7 | 8.2–11.3 | +1.1 |
| Others | 3.1 | −0.3 |
Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 5 Mar 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 15 Feb 2025, in points.
Polls included (3)
| Fieldwork end | Pollster | ConConservative | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | OneBCOneBC | CentreCentreBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Mar | Research Co.New | 802 | 42 | 44 | 11 | – | – |
| 15 Feb | Pallas Data | 677 | 40.7 | 48.8 | 7.6 | – | – |
| 26 Jan | Leger | 1,001 | 42 | 44 | 10 | – | – |
Province-wide polls published since the 2024 election, up to this projection, from the polling tables on Wikipedia. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party.
Projections since the 2024 election
A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.
Seats, median and 90% range
Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority
One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 47 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 45 projections, to 3 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.
All projections
| Projection | ConConservative | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | ConConservative maj. | NDPNDP maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 52 | 39 | 1 | 68% | 26% | 6% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Angus Reid | 51 | 40 | 1 | 65% | 29% | 6% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 50 | 41 | 2 | 63% | 30% | 7% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Pollara | 49 | 42 | 2 | 57% | 35% | 7% |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Ipsos | 49 | 42 | 2 | 57% | 36% | 7% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Innovative Research, Leger | 47 | 44 | 2 | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 44 | 46 | 3 | 42% | 47% | 12% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Angus Reid | 42 | 47 | 3 | 35% | 54% | 12% |
38 earlier projections
| Projection | ConConservative | NDPNDP | GrnGreen | ConConservative maj. | NDPNDP maj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Innovative Research | 38 | 52 | 3 | 22% | 69% | 9% |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Angus Reid | 38 | 52 | 2 | 22% | 70% | 8% |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Ipsos | 37 | 53 | 2 | 21% | 73% | 7% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | Research Co. | 45 | 45 | 2 | 46% | 44% | 11% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | 604 Polling | 47 | 43 | 3 | 52% | 36% | 11% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Yorkville Strategies | 38 | 52 | 2 | 22% | 70% | 8% |
| 17 Jul 2026 | Fairview Strategy | 43 | 47 | 2 | 38% | 51% | 11% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Angus Reid | 55 | 36 | 2 | 78% | 17% | 5% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | Research Co. | 51 | 40 | 1 | 67% | 27% | 6% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | Leger | 52 | 39 | 2 | 68% | 25% | 7% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | Angus Reid | 50 | 39 | 3 | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 44 | 45 | 3 | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Leger | 46 | 44 | 2 | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Angus Reid | 50 | 40 | 2 | 63% | 28% | 8% |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 50 | 40 | 2 | 61% | 29% | 9% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Innovative Research | 50 | 40 | 2 | 63% | 28% | 8% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Pallas Data | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49% | 42% | 10% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | One Persuasion | 46 | 44 | 2 | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Pallas Data | 40 | 50 | 2 | 28% | 63% | 8% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | Leger | 41 | 50 | 1 | 30% | 64% | 6% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Leger | 42 | 49 | 2 | 33% | 60% | 7% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 45 | 45 | 2 | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Pallas Data | 43 | 48 | 2 | 39% | 55% | 7% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Angus Reid | 44 | 47 | 2 | 41% | 52% | 7% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | EKOS, Yorkville Strategies | 43 | 48 | 1 | 39% | 54% | 7% |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Angus Reid | 41 | 50 | 2 | 30% | 64% | 7% |
| 15 Oct 2025 | Abacus Data | 38 | 53 | 2 | 22% | 73% | 5% |
| 12 Oct 2025 | Leger | 39 | 52 | 2 | 25% | 69% | 6% |
| 6 Oct 2025 | Cardinal Research | 43 | 48 | 2 | 36% | 55% | 9% |
| 3 Oct 2025 | Research Co. | 40 | 50 | 2 | 28% | 63% | 9% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | Angus Reid | 48 | 43 | 2 | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Mainstreet Research | 47 | 45 | 1 | 51% | 44% | 6% |
| 9 Jun 2025 | Research Co. | 42 | 49 | 2 | 34% | 60% | 6% |
| 25 May 2025 | Leger | 40 | 51 | 2 | 28% | 66% | 6% |
| 4 May 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 49 | 43 | 1 | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| 5 Mar 2025 (this page) | Research Co. | 39 | 52 | 2 | 24% | 70% | 6% |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Pallas Data | 37 | 54 | 1 | 20% | 76% | 4% |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Leger | 42 | 49 | 2 | 33% | 59% | 8% |
How the projection works
The projection starts from the 2024 result in each of the 93 ridings, whose boundaries are unchanged for 2026. It moves each riding by the change in the site’s polling average since that election, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2024 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. OneBC and CentreBC, which did not run in 2024, enter where the Conservatives were strong. A party with no candidate in a riding gets no votes there; its voters are divided among the others. Recent regional poll results shift Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island and the rest of the province relative to one another.
Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections. In those tests the method’s projected leader won 85.5% of ridings, and its 90% ranges contained each party’s actual seat total 94.9% of the time. Candidates’ personal appeal, local campaigns and late shifts in opinion are not modelled.
Full methodology · This projection as JSON · The 2026 election page