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Stephen Taylor

British Columbia seat projection, 25 May 2025

Projection, not a poll

As of 25 May 2025, from 5 polls · election day 24 October 2026

Each riding’s 2024 result is moved by the change in the provincial polling average since that election, and the election is then simulated 10,000 times, with polling and local errors of the size seen in past elections, to estimate each party’s chance in every riding and its range of seats.

An earlier projection, kept as published. The latest projection uses polls to 8 October 2026.

Computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to 25 May 2025.

Seats

In 10,000 simulations, the NDP win a median of 51 seats (90% range 30–69) and a majority in 66%; the Conservatives 40 seats (90% range 22–60) and a majority in 28%; the Greens 2 seats (90% range 0–4). No party wins a majority in 6%.

  • NDP majority

    66%

    Most seats in 68% of simulations

  • Conservative majority

    28%

    Most seats in 30% of simulations

  • No majority

    6%

    17 ridings with no party above 60%

Projected seats by party, median and 90% range, out of 93; 47 seats are a majority.
47 for a majority
Conservative

40 seats (22–60) · majority 28%

NDP

51 seats (30–69) · majority 66%

Green

2 seats (0–4)

Others

0 seats (0–1)

Bars show each party’s median seat count in 10,000 simulations; the black line spans the middle 90% of simulations (the 90% range). The dashed line marks 47 of 93 seats. Others: independents and candidates of other parties. OneBC and CentreBC win no seat in the median simulation.

What changed

New poll

  • Leger, fieldwork to 25 May 2025, 1,032 respondentsNDP 45 · Conservative 39 · Green 11

Change since 4 May 2025

  • Median seats: Conservative −9, NDP +8, Green +1.
  • Chance of a majority, in points: Conservative −30, NDP +27; no majority +3.
  • Projected leader changed in 15 ridings: Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (Conservative to NDP); Courtenay-Comox (Conservative to NDP); Cowichan Valley (Conservative to NDP); Juan de Fuca-Malahat (Conservative to NDP); Kelowna Centre (Conservative to NDP); Ladysmith-Oceanside (Conservative to NDP); Maple Ridge East (Conservative to NDP); North Island (Conservative to NDP); Richmond-Steveston (Conservative to NDP); Saanich North and the Islands (Conservative to Green); Surrey-Cloverdale (Conservative to NDP); Surrey-Guildford (Conservative to NDP); Surrey-Panorama (Conservative to NDP); Surrey-Serpentine River (Conservative to NDP); West Vancouver-Sea to Sky (Conservative to Green).

Projected leader by riding

Each riding is coloured by the party most likely to win it, shaded by that chance. Hover over or tap a riding for its projected vote shares and each party's chance of winning it.

Ridings by projected leader
ConNDPGreen
Solid 95%+6110
Likely 80–95%14180
Leans 60–80%13131
Toss-up <60%17

British Columbia

Lower Mainland

Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond

Greater Victoria

Kelowna

All 93 ridings

Projected vote shares are medians across the simulations, with the middle 90% in brackets. Riding names link to the 2024 results.

All 93 ridings: 2024 winner, projected leader, its chance of winning, category and projected vote shares (median and 90% range). Column buttons sort the table.
Abbotsford South2024: Con 61.6%Con 62 (47–76) · NDP 38 (24–53)Conservative 61.6%ConLikely91%LikelyConservative61.8 (47–76)NDP38.1 (24–53)
Abbotsford West2024: Con 58.4%Con 60 (44–75) · NDP 40 (25–55)Conservative 58.4%ConLikely87%LikelyConservative59.8 (44–75)NDP40.0 (25–55)
Abbotsford-Mission2024: Con 55.4%Con 51 (36–67) · NDP 45 (30–60)Conservative 55.4%ConLeans65%LeansConservative51.3 (36–67)NDP45.0 (30–60)
Boundary-Similkameen2024: Con 48.4%Con 50 (36–65) · NDP 50 (35–64)Conservative 48.4%ConToss-up51%Toss-upConservative50.1 (36–65)NDP49.6 (35–64)
Bulkley Valley-Stikine2024: Con 52.3%Con 50 (36–64) · NDP 44 (30–58)Conservative 52.3%ConLeans66%LeansConservative50.2 (36–64)NDP43.6 (30–58)
Burnaby Centre2024: NDP 57.3%NDP 58 (44–72) · Con 40 (26–54)NDP 57.3%NDPLikely87%LikelyNDP58.3 (44–72)Conservative40.3 (26–54)
Burnaby East2024: NDP 51.8%NDP 53 (39–67) · Con 38 (25–52)NDP 51.8%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP52.8 (39–67)Conservative38.0 (25–52)
Burnaby North2024: NDP 53.3%NDP 55 (41–69) · Con 43 (29–57)NDP 53.3%NDPLeans78%LeansNDP55.3 (41–69)Conservative43.2 (29–57)
Burnaby South-Metrotown2024: NDP 49.3%NDP 51 (37–65) · Con 41 (27–55)NDP 49.3%NDPLeans75%LeansNDP51.2 (37–65)Conservative41.0 (27–55)
Burnaby-New Westminster2024: NDP 60%NDP 63 (49–76) · Con 36 (23–50)NDP 60%NDPLikely94%LikelyNDP62.6 (49–76)Conservative35.7 (23–50)
Cariboo-Chilcotin2024: Con 69.6%Con 67 (53–81) · NDP 31 (17–45)Conservative 69.6%ConSolid98%SolidConservative67.3 (53–81)NDP31.1 (17–45)
Chilliwack North2024: Con 54.6%Con 55 (40–71) · NDP 44 (29–60)Conservative 54.6%ConLeans74%LeansConservative55.0 (40–71)NDP44.1 (29–60)
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake2024: Con 54.6%Con 53 (37–68) · NDP 48 (32–63)Conservative 54.6%ConLeans62%LeansConservative52.5 (37–68)NDP47.5 (32–63)
Columbia River-Revelstoke2024: Con 47.9%Con 46 (31–61) · NDP 45 (30–60)Conservative 47.9%ConToss-up52%Toss-upConservative45.6 (31–61)NDP44.9 (30–60)
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain2024: NDP 50.8%NDP 52 (38–66) · Con 47 (33–61)NDP 50.8%NDPLeans63%LeansNDP51.9 (38–66)Conservative46.8 (33–61)
Coquitlam-Maillardville2024: NDP 51.8%NDP 53 (39–68) · Con 39 (25–53)NDP 51.8%NDPLikely82%LikelyNDP53.3 (39–68)Conservative38.6 (25–53)
Courtenay-Comox2024: Con 38.8%NDP 39 (24–55) · Con 37 (23–53)Conservative 38.8%NDPgain from ConToss-up53%Toss-upNDP39.1 (24–55)Conservative37.2 (23–53)Green23.2 (10–37)
Cowichan Valley2024: NDP 40.5%NDP 40 (25–55) · Con 35 (21–50)NDP 40.5%NDPLeans61%LeansNDP39.8 (25–55)Conservative34.8 (21–50)Green21.4 (9–35)
Delta North2024: NDP 52.7%NDP 59 (46–73) · Con 40 (26–54)NDP 52.7%NDPLikely89%LikelyNDP59.2 (46–73)Conservative39.8 (26–54)
Delta South2024: Con 55.1%Con 53 (38–67) · NDP 46 (32–60)Conservative 55.1%ConLeans68%LeansConservative52.7 (38–67)NDP46.0 (32–60)
Esquimalt-Colwood2024: NDP 51.5%NDP 52 (36–67) · Con 27 (13–41)NDP 51.5%NDPLikely92%LikelyNDP51.7 (36–67)Conservative26.5 (13–41)Green21.5 (9–35)
Fraser-Nicola2024: Con 54.3%Con 52 (37–67) · NDP 37 (22–52)Conservative 54.3%ConLikely82%LikelyConservative52.0 (37–67)NDP36.9 (22–52)Green10.8 (2–21)
Juan de Fuca-Malahat2024: NDP 38.8%NDP 38 (23–52) · Con 34 (20–49)NDP 38.8%NDPToss-up54%Toss-upNDP37.5 (23–52)Conservative34.1 (20–49)Green24.6 (12–38)
Kamloops Centre2024: Con 48.8%Con 45 (30–60) · NDP 40 (25–55)Conservative 48.8%ConLeans62%LeansConservative44.7 (30–60)NDP39.9 (25–55)Green11.4 (3–22)
Kamloops-North Thompson2024: Con 59.7%Con 60 (45–74) · NDP 40 (26–55)Conservative 59.7%ConLikely88%LikelyConservative59.9 (45–74)NDP39.8 (26–55)
Kelowna Centre2024: Con 42.8%NDP 51 (36–65) · Con 49 (35–64)Conservative 42.8%NDPgain from ConToss-up53%Toss-upNDP50.6 (36–65)Conservative49.2 (35–64)
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream2024: Con 53.9%Con 56 (41–71) · NDP 38 (23–53)Conservative 53.9%ConLikely87%LikelyConservative56.0 (41–71)NDP37.7 (23–53)
Kelowna-Mission2024: Con 51.5%Con 57 (42–71) · NDP 36 (22–51)Conservative 51.5%ConLikely89%LikelyConservative56.7 (42–71)NDP36.0 (22–51)
Kootenay Central2024: NDP 39.6%NDP 42 (27–58) · Con 36 (21–51)NDP 39.6%NDPLeans66%LeansNDP42.4 (27–58)Conservative35.5 (21–51)Green21.9 (10–34)
Kootenay-Monashee2024: NDP 52%NDP 53 (37–68) · Con 36 (22–52)NDP 52%NDPLikely84%LikelyNDP52.7 (37–68)Conservative36.4 (22–52)Green10.5 (2–21)
Kootenay-Rockies2024: Con 42.7%Con 61 (46–75) · NDP 30 (17–44)Conservative 42.7%ConSolid96%SolidConservative60.7 (46–75)NDP30.3 (17–44)
Ladysmith-Oceanside2024: NDP 41.5%NDP 47 (31–62) · Con 44 (29–59)NDP 41.5%NDPToss-up57%Toss-upNDP46.5 (31–62)Conservative43.9 (29–59)
Langford-Highlands2024: NDP 51.9%NDP 51 (35–65) · Con 34 (20–49)NDP 51.9%NDPLikely86%LikelyNDP50.7 (35–65)Conservative33.5 (20–49)Green11.7 (2–23)
Langley-Abbotsford2024: Con 55.6%Con 54 (39–69) · NDP 34 (20–49)Conservative 55.6%ConLikely88%LikelyConservative54.0 (39–69)NDP34.3 (20–49)
Langley-Walnut Grove2024: Con 49.6%Con 48 (31–63) · NDP 46 (30–62)Conservative 49.6%ConToss-up53%Toss-upConservative47.5 (31–63)NDP46.1 (30–62)
Langley-Willowbrook2024: Con 48.2%Con 46 (30–61) · NDP 45 (29–61)Conservative 48.2%ConToss-up51%Toss-upConservative45.7 (30–61)NDP45.3 (29–61)
Maple Ridge East2024: Con 47%NDP 46 (30–61) · Con 43 (28–58)Conservative 47%NDPgain from ConToss-up57%Toss-upNDP45.9 (30–61)Conservative42.9 (28–58)
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows2024: NDP 54.9%NDP 57 (42–72) · Con 43 (28–58)NDP 54.9%NDPLeans79%LeansNDP57.0 (42–72)Conservative42.8 (28–58)
Mid Island-Pacific Rim2024: NDP 48.7%NDP 49 (34–65) · Con 37 (22–52)NDP 48.7%NDPLeans78%LeansNDP49.4 (34–65)Conservative36.9 (22–52)Green13.3 (3–25)
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island2024: NDP 52.7%NDP 53 (38–69) · Con 32 (18–47)NDP 52.7%NDPLikely90%LikelyNDP53.3 (38–69)Conservative32.1 (18–47)Green14.1 (4–26)
Nanaimo-Lantzville2024: NDP 51.7%NDP 51 (36–66) · Con 36 (21–50)NDP 51.7%NDPLikely83%LikelyNDP50.9 (36–66)Conservative35.7 (21–50)
Nechako Lakes2024: Con 67.4%Con 65 (51–78) · NDP 31 (18–46)Conservative 67.4%ConSolid97%SolidConservative64.8 (51–78)NDP31.4 (18–46)
New Westminster-Coquitlam2024: NDP 59.1%NDP 58 (44–71) · Con 26 (14–39)NDP 59.1%NDPSolid97%SolidNDP57.9 (44–71)Conservative26.3 (14–39)Green12.1 (3–22)
North Coast-Haida Gwaii2024: NDP 64.9%NDP 66 (51–80) · Con 33 (18–47)NDP 64.9%NDPSolid97%SolidNDP65.9 (51–80)Conservative32.5 (18–47)
North Island2024: Con 47.1%NDP 44 (29–59) · Con 43 (28–58)Conservative 47.1%NDPgain from ConToss-up53%Toss-upNDP44.1 (29–59)Conservative43.1 (28–58)
North Vancouver-Lonsdale2024: NDP 64.9%NDP 66 (52–79) · Con 33 (19–46)NDP 64.9%NDPSolid97%SolidNDP65.9 (52–79)Conservative32.7 (19–46)
North Vancouver-Seymour2024: NDP 52.8%NDP 55 (41–69) · Con 37 (24–51)NDP 52.8%NDPLikely88%LikelyNDP55.2 (41–69)Conservative37.2 (24–51)
Oak Bay-Gordon Head2024: NDP 49.1%NDP 49 (34–65) · Con 26 (13–41)NDP 49.1%NDPLikely89%LikelyNDP49.1 (34–65)Conservative26.0 (13–41)Green24.3 (11–38)
Peace River North2024: Con 74.4%Con 65 (22–85) · Jordan Kealy 35 (15–78)Conservative 74.4%ConLeans76%LeansConservative64.9 (22–85)Jordan Kealy35.1 (15–78)
Peace River South2024: Con 69.8%Con 82 (70–93) · NDP 13 (3–25)Conservative 69.8%ConSolid>99%SolidConservative82.2 (70–93)NDP12.7 (3–25)
Penticton-Summerland2024: Con 41.4%Con 51 (35–66) · NDP 42 (27–58)Conservative 41.4%ConLeans71%LeansConservative51.0 (35–66)NDP42.0 (27–58)
Port Coquitlam2024: NDP 53.9%NDP 53 (39–67) · Con 35 (22–49)NDP 53.9%NDPLikely88%LikelyNDP53.0 (39–67)Conservative35.0 (22–49)
Port Moody-Burquitlam2024: NDP 52.1%NDP 53 (39–67) · Con 38 (24–52)NDP 52.1%NDPLikely84%LikelyNDP53.1 (39–67)Conservative38.0 (24–52)
Powell River-Sunshine Coast2024: NDP 49.6%NDP 51 (36–65) · Con 34 (20–48)NDP 49.6%NDPLikely86%LikelyNDP50.6 (36–65)Conservative33.7 (20–48)Green15.5 (6–27)
Prince George-Mackenzie2024: Con 60.9%Con 60 (45–75) · NDP 29 (16–44)Conservative 60.9%ConSolid96%SolidConservative60.3 (45–75)NDP29.2 (16–44)Green10.1 (2–20)
Prince George-North Cariboo2024: Con 56.8%Con 69 (55–83) · NDP 23 (10–37)Conservative 56.8%ConSolid99%SolidConservative69.4 (55–83)NDP23.0 (10–37)
Prince George-Valemount2024: Con 55.2%Con 53 (38–68) · NDP 35 (21–50)Conservative 55.2%ConLikely86%LikelyConservative52.7 (38–68)NDP35.4 (21–50)Green11.4 (2–22)
Richmond Centre2024: Con 52%Con 55 (41–69) · NDP 39 (26–53)Conservative 52%ConLikely85%LikelyConservative54.8 (41–69)NDP39.2 (26–53)
Richmond-Bridgeport2024: Con 58.2%Con 60 (46–73) · NDP 40 (27–54)Conservative 58.2%ConLikely89%LikelyConservative59.9 (46–73)NDP40.1 (27–54)
Richmond-Queensborough2024: Con 50.9%Con 52 (38–66) · NDP 47 (33–61)Conservative 50.9%ConLeans63%LeansConservative51.9 (38–66)NDP46.5 (33–61)
Richmond-Steveston2024: NDP 44.3%NDP 49 (36–63) · Con 46 (32–60)NDP 44.3%NDPToss-up59%Toss-upNDP49.2 (36–63)Conservative46.1 (32–60)
Saanich North and the Islands2024: Grn 36.2%Grn 40 (24–55) · NDP 32 (17–48)Green 36.2%GrnToss-up60%Toss-upGreen39.5 (24–55)NDP32.1 (17–48)Conservative27.9 (14–44)
Saanich South2024: NDP 49.8%NDP 50 (35–66) · Con 30 (16–45)NDP 49.8%NDPLikely89%LikelyNDP50.1 (35–66)Conservative29.8 (16–45)Green19.8 (8–33)
Salmon Arm-Shuswap2024: Con 52.1%Con 57 (42–72) · NDP 34 (19–48)Conservative 52.1%ConLikely91%LikelyConservative56.8 (42–72)NDP33.7 (19–48)
Skeena2024: Con 51.2%Con 49 (34–65) · NDP 46 (31–61)Conservative 51.2%ConToss-up58%Toss-upConservative49.4 (34–65)NDP46.0 (31–61)
Surrey City Centre2024: NDP 46.7%NDP 53 (39–67) · Con 46 (32–60)NDP 46.7%NDPLeans69%LeansNDP53.2 (39–67)Conservative45.6 (32–60)
Surrey North2024: Con 50.7%Con 47 (33–61) · NDP 43 (29–56)Conservative 50.7%ConLeans62%LeansConservative47.2 (33–61)NDP42.9 (29–56)
Surrey South2024: Con 58.8%Con 55 (41–68) · NDP 41 (27–54)Conservative 58.8%ConLikely82%LikelyConservative54.6 (41–68)NDP40.5 (27–54)
Surrey-Cloverdale2024: Con 48.3%NDP 47 (33–61) · Con 46 (32–61)Conservative 48.3%NDPgain from ConToss-up52%Toss-upNDP47.0 (33–61)Conservative46.3 (32–61)
Surrey-Fleetwood2024: NDP 48.6%NDP 50 (35–64) · Con 43 (29–57)NDP 48.6%NDPLeans68%LeansNDP49.7 (35–64)Conservative42.5 (29–57)
Surrey-Guildford2024: NDP 46.9%NDP 47 (32–61) · Con 44 (30–58)NDP 46.9%NDPToss-up57%Toss-upNDP46.7 (32–61)Conservative44.1 (30–58)
Surrey-Newton2024: NDP 51.2%NDP 56 (41–70) · Con 44 (30–59)NDP 51.2%NDPLeans76%LeansNDP55.7 (41–70)Conservative44.2 (30–59)
Surrey-Panorama2024: Con 49.6%NDP 50 (36–64) · Con 48 (34–63)Conservative 49.6%NDPgain from ConToss-up55%Toss-upNDP50.3 (36–64)Conservative48.3 (34–63)
Surrey-Serpentine River2024: Con 49.7%NDP 48 (34–62) · Con 48 (34–62)Conservative 49.7%NDPgain from ConToss-up52%Toss-upNDP48.3 (34–62)Conservative47.7 (34–62)
Surrey-White Rock2024: Con 52.3%Con 48 (35–62) · NDP 45 (31–58)Conservative 52.3%ConLeans60%LeansConservative48.3 (35–62)NDP44.5 (31–58)
Vancouver-Fraserview2024: NDP 57.2%NDP 58 (44–72) · Con 34 (21–48)NDP 57.2%NDPLikely93%LikelyNDP58.4 (44–72)Conservative34.1 (21–48)
Vancouver-Hastings2024: NDP 64.1%NDP 63 (49–76) · Con 21 (10–34)NDP 64.1%NDPSolid99%SolidNDP62.9 (49–76)Conservative21.4 (10–34)Green12.0 (3–22)
Vancouver-Kensington2024: NDP 60.9%NDP 62 (48–75) · Con 29 (17–43)NDP 60.9%NDPSolid97%SolidNDP61.9 (48–75)Conservative28.9 (17–43)
Vancouver-Langara2024: NDP 48.4%NDP 50 (35–64) · Con 44 (30–58)NDP 48.4%NDPLeans66%LeansNDP49.6 (35–64)Conservative43.6 (30–58)
Vancouver-Little Mountain2024: NDP 62.1%NDP 63 (49–77) · Con 28 (16–42)NDP 62.1%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP63.2 (49–77)Conservative28.0 (16–42)
Vancouver-Point Grey2024: NDP 56.8%NDP 58 (43–72) · Con 32 (19–45)NDP 56.8%NDPLikely95%LikelyNDP57.7 (43–72)Conservative31.9 (19–45)Green10.0 (2–20)
Vancouver-Quilchena2024: Con 51.6%Con 50 (36–65) · NDP 40 (26–54)Conservative 51.6%ConLeans75%LeansConservative50.3 (36–65)NDP40.2 (26–54)
Vancouver-Renfrew2024: NDP 63.2%NDP 64 (50–78) · Con 28 (15–42)NDP 63.2%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP64.3 (50–78)Conservative28.2 (15–42)
Vancouver-South Granville2024: NDP 64.3%NDP 65 (51–78) · Con 22 (11–36)NDP 64.3%NDPSolid99%SolidNDP65.1 (51–78)Conservative22.4 (11–36)Green12.3 (3–22)
Vancouver-Strathcona2024: NDP 68.2%NDP 66 (52–79) · Grn 14 (5–25)NDP 68.2%NDPSolid>99%SolidNDP66.4 (52–79)Green14.2 (5–25)Conservative14.0 (4–26)
Vancouver-West End2024: NDP 63%NDP 64 (50–78) · Con 25 (13–38)NDP 63%NDPSolid98%SolidNDP64.1 (50–78)Conservative25.1 (13–38)Green10.5 (2–20)
Vancouver-Yaletown2024: NDP 49.8%NDP 51 (37–65) · Con 41 (27–55)NDP 49.8%NDPLeans74%LeansNDP50.7 (37–65)Conservative40.9 (27–55)
Vernon-Lumby2024: NDP 42.7%Con 55 (40–70) · NDP 44 (29–59)NDP 42.7%Congain from NDPLeans74%LeansConservative54.6 (40–70)NDP43.7 (29–59)
Victoria-Beacon Hill2024: NDP 47.4%NDP 47 (31–63) · Grn 37 (21–52)NDP 47.4%NDPLeans74%LeansNDP46.8 (31–63)Green36.6 (21–52)Conservative16.4 (5–30)
Victoria-Swan Lake2024: NDP 56%NDP 56 (41–72) · Grn 26 (12–40)NDP 56%NDPSolid96%SolidNDP56.2 (41–72)Green25.6 (12–40)Conservative17.8 (6–31)
West Kelowna-Peachland2024: Con 50.9%Con 63 (48–77) · NDP 34 (20–49)Conservative 50.9%ConLikely95%LikelyConservative62.8 (48–77)NDP34.2 (20–49)
West Vancouver-Capilano2024: Con 46.7%Con 58 (44–72) · NDP 33 (20–47)Conservative 46.7%ConLikely94%LikelyConservative58.1 (44–72)NDP33.2 (20–47)
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky2024: Grn 38.1%Grn 42 (26–56) · Con 32 (19–47)Green 38.1%GrnLeans69%LeansGreen41.6 (26–56)Conservative32.3 (19–47)NDP25.8 (13–40)

Polls

The polling average used

Polling average by party on 25 May 2025, with the spread of recent polls
PartyAverageSpreadChange
Conservative41.838.0–45.6−5.1
NDP45.045.0–45.00
Green9.67.7–11.5+2.5
Others3.6 +2.6

Per cent. The average is the site’s polling average on 25 May 2025, the end date of the newest poll. Spread: one weighted standard deviation of recent polls either side of the average, a measure of how much polls disagree, not a margin of error. Others: the remainder to 100. Change: since the projection of 4 May 2025, in points.

Polls included (5)

The 5 most recent polls in the average, newest first
Fieldwork endPollsterConNDPGrnOneBCCentre
25 MayLegerNew1,032394511––
4 MayLiaison Strategies80047457––
5 MarResearch Co.802424411––
15 FebPallas Data67740.748.87.6––
26 JanLeger1,001424410––

Province-wide polls published since the 2024 election, up to this projection, from the polling tables on Wikipedia. Older polls carry little weight in the average. A dash: the poll did not report that party.

Projections since the 2024 election

A new projection is made each time a new poll is published. Each date's page keeps that projection as it was.

Seats, median and 90% range

0208047Apr 2025JulOct2026AprJulOctElection dayCon 52NDP 39Grn 1

Chance of a majority; dashed: no majority

0255075100%Apr 2025JulOct2026AprJulOctCon 68%NDP 26%Minority 6%

One point per projection, dated by its newest poll; each holds until the next. The dashed line marks 47 seats, a majority. Select a point for that projection’s page. The first 45 projections, to 3 October 2026, were computed retroactively on 10 October 2026, with the model and candidate list of that date, from the polls published up to each date.

All projections

The most recent projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionConNDPGrnCon maj.NDP maj.
8 Oct 2026Liaison Strategies5239168%26%6%
3 Oct 2026Angus Reid5140165%29%6%
1 Oct 2026Mainstreet Research5041263%30%7%
30 Sep 2026Pollara4942257%35%7%
29 Sep 2026Ipsos4942257%36%7%
28 Sep 2026Innovative Research, Leger4744251%41%8%
27 Sep 2026Liaison Strategies4446342%47%12%
24 Sep 2026Angus Reid4247335%54%12%
38 earlier projections
Earlier projections, newest first: seats by party (median) and the chance of a majority
ProjectionConNDPGrnCon maj.NDP maj.
18 Sep 2026Innovative Research3852322%69%9%
15 Sep 2026Angus Reid3852222%70%8%
14 Sep 2026Ipsos3753221%73%7%
14 Aug 2026Research Co.4545246%44%11%
8 Aug 2026604 Polling4743352%36%11%
3 Aug 2026Yorkville Strategies3852222%70%8%
17 Jul 2026Fairview Strategy4347238%51%11%
12 Jun 2026Angus Reid5536278%17%5%
5 Jun 2026Research Co.5140167%27%6%
2 Jun 2026Leger5239268%25%7%
28 Apr 2026Angus Reid5039363%25%12%
13 Apr 2026Mainstreet Research4445342%45%13%
6 Apr 2026Leger4644248%43%9%
17 Mar 2026Angus Reid5040263%28%8%
13 Mar 2026Mainstreet Research5040261%29%9%
3 Mar 2026Innovative Research5040263%28%8%
27 Feb 2026Pallas Data4644249%42%10%
24 Feb 2026One Persuasion4644247%43%10%
14 Feb 2026Pallas Data4050228%63%8%
9 Feb 2026Leger4150130%64%6%
26 Jan 2026Leger4249233%60%7%
18 Dec 2025Mainstreet Research4545246%46%8%
13 Dec 2025Pallas Data4348239%55%7%
1 Dec 2025Angus Reid4447241%52%7%
25 Nov 2025EKOS, Yorkville Strategies4348139%54%7%
25 Oct 2025Angus Reid4150230%64%7%
15 Oct 2025Abacus Data3853222%73%5%
12 Oct 2025Leger3952225%69%6%
6 Oct 2025Cardinal Research4348236%55%9%
3 Oct 2025Research Co.4050228%63%9%
5 Sep 2025Angus Reid4843255%37%8%
24 Jun 2025Mainstreet Research4745151%44%6%
9 Jun 2025Research Co.4249234%60%6%
25 May 2025 (this page)Leger4051228%66%6%
4 May 2025Liaison Strategies4943158%38%4%
5 Mar 2025Research Co.3952224%70%6%
15 Feb 2025Pallas Data3754120%76%4%
26 Jan 2025Leger4249233%59%8%

How the projection works

The projection starts from the 2024 result in each of the 93 ridings, whose boundaries are unchanged for 2026. It moves each riding by the change in the site’s polling average since that election, half as a uniform change in points and half in proportion to each party’s 2024 share, then adjusts the ridings so that together they reproduce the average. OneBC and CentreBC, which did not run in 2024, enter where the Conservatives were strong. A party with no candidate in a riding gets no votes there; its voters are divided among the others. Recent regional poll results shift Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island and the rest of the province relative to one another.

Each of the 10,000 simulations adds a province-wide polling error, regional errors and riding errors, sized from 10 earlier provincial elections. In those tests the method’s projected leader won 85.5% of ridings, and its 90% ranges contained each party’s actual seat total 94.9% of the time. Candidates’ personal appeal, local campaigns and late shifts in opinion are not modelled.

Full methodology · This projection as JSON · The 2026 election page