So, about the latest Strategic Counsel poll that shows the Liberals at 37% and the Conservatives at 30%.

I’ve checked the methodology of the poll and it seems to be what I call an “honest poll” (ie. that the pollster has the ballot question first without prompting respondents with questions that either outline successes or failures of any party — check this post for more discussion).

So, the methodology is straight-forward. However I cannot square the main result (LPC 37%, CPC 30%) with the results of this question:

Now that Stéphane Dion is the new Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, would you say you are significantly more likely, somewhat more likely, the same, somewhat less likely or significantly less likely to vote Liberal than you were before the Convention?

*Total more likely: 20%

The same: 47%

Total less likely: 26%*

This question should indicate that Canadian are less likely to vote for the Liberals under Stephane Dion.

However, the ballot question indicates the Liberals over the Conservatives with 37% to 30%, respectively.

The two results are in conflict. The only explanation is that the Liberals had higher support than 37% before the convention.

Ipsos put them at 25-27% to a Conservative 38% just a few days before Dion was elected leader.

The only thing that we know for certain is that we don’t have a clear picture of what is going on yet.

I’ll wait for SES numbers.