Month: April 2005

Warren Kinsella had a bad day today. He was in Ottawa testifying before the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee. Kinsella writes in his blog:

“Right about now, people in the Langevin Block are leaning on other people on the public payroll – you can guess who they are – to disavow whatever I am obliged to say. Operation Repudiation will begin minutes after I am asked the first question.

Count on it.

(To ensure clarity, I am going to be asked to be sworn in.)”

Kinsella complained that he had received an intimidating phone call from a staff member in the PMO minutes before he was set to testify. During his testimony, Kinsella disclosed:

“I received a phone call from an individual a few minutes before I came here indicating that Mr. Dingwall would disavow everything I had to say here today.”

His weariness of Scott Reid in the PMO is quite justified. Paul “Dithers” Martin was fingered today by Kinsella in his testimony today before the commitee. Warren testified that Martin, when he was finance minister, secured questionable government contracts for companies that were close to Martin. Kinsella expressed his protest to the alleged corruption in a letter to Martin senior advisor Terrie O’Leary concerning polling contracts with Earnescliffe in 1994:

“Terrie, all of this spells trouble and you know it. The competition was flawed, the payment is excessive, the work is probably not needed, and the research community can be fully expected to blow the whistle on the political connections here.”

Kinsella pointed a big finger today and he’s weary of the consequences:

“I can think of a million other places I’d rather be, today, than in Ottawa. On Parliament Hill.

It’s analogous to journalists, who hate being interviewed by other journalists: hacks like me, who help out on election campaigns, hate being election campaign fodder.”

Kinsella has tied Paul Martin into the sponsorship scandal while the PMO is (allegedly) pressuring him and attempting to discredit him. I think that Warren just opened up a new and explosive chapter of Adscam.

UPDATE: Part of the Kinsella testimony is up with CTV interview of WK. (hat tip: Andrew Coyne)

UPDATE II: Kinsella is suing PMO mouthpiece Scott Reid (hat tip: Ben)

Here is a list of the top 10 safest Conservative MPs as measured by their margin of victory in the 2004 General Election. These are the MPs that we need to do a lot of the supplemental campaign tour to bolster the parallel Leader’s tour in the next election.

Kevin Sorenson – Crowfoot – 90.40%
Monte Solberg – Medicine Hat – 85.68%
Bob Mills – Red Deer – 84.20%
Leon Benoit – Vegreville—Wainwright – 84.05%
Ted Menzies- Macleod – 83.82%
Dale Johnston – Wetaskiwin – 83.80%
Rob Merrifield – Yellowhead – 83.24%
Myron Thompson – Wild Rose – 82.09%
Jason Kenney – Calgary Southeast – 76.96%
Brian Pallister – Portage-Lisgar – 73.09%

There are, of course, a lot of other ‘safe’ seats. These are just the top 10. Any margin of victory in excess of about 55% is generally ‘safe’, especially given the current Liberal meltdown.

I was going over some of the election data from last year so that I could get a better idea of how many seats the Liberals stand to lose given new polling data.

Here are the slimmest of Liberal victories from last year’s General Election:

1. Liza Frulla – Minister of Heritage and Minister responsible for the status of women – She won the riding of Jeanne-Le Ber with a meager 0.38% margin of the popular vote over the Bloc Quebecois candidate. Her chief of staff John Welch allegedly was put on the Groupaction payroll by Jean Brault to organize for the Liberals in Quebec. Given the slim margin of her victory in 2004 and the new revelations concerning alleged corruption in her inner circle, Liza Frulla will surly lose her seat after the next election.

2. David Kilgour – Recent Liberal defector – He is currently the (independent) MP for Edmonton-Beaumont, the riding he won in 2004 by only 0.76% over the Conservative candidate Tim Uppal. Will Kilgour contest the nomination for the CPC or will he simply cross the floor over to the Tory ranks?

3. Rose-Marie Ur – Liberal MP – Her riding, Middlesex-Kent-Lambton provided her with a margin of less than 200 votes (or 0.84% of the popular vote) over Conservative Bev Shipley. Ur has been a Liberal MP since 1993 and now stands to lose her parliamentary status in the riding in the wake of the Sponsorship Scandal.

4. Ethel Blondin-Andrew – Minister of State (Northern Development) – Liberal MP from the riding of Western Arctic won her riding by 1.00% of the popular vote. Depending on the fallout of the Sponsorship Scandal in the Northwest Territories, Blondin-Andrew stands to lose her seat to an NDP challenger.

5. Paul Macklin – Liberal MP – His riding of Northumberland-Quinte West was lost by the Conservative candidate Doug Galt by only 1.36% of the popular vote.

6. Jerry Pickard – Liberal MP – Has held the riding of Chatham-Kent-Essex since 1988. He won in 2004 by 2.33% of the popular vote. Given recent numbers from Ontario polls, Pickard may very well lose his seat this year.

7. Pierre Pettigrew – Minister of Foreign Affairs – Mr. Softpower himself has failed miserably pressuring Iran on the Kazemi case. Pettigrew represents the Quebec riding of Papineau and won it by a mere margin of 2.77% of the popular vote. The must-see-tv status of the Gomery inquiry in Quebec has made “Liberal” a lethal name for one’s candidacy and Pettigrew is likely to lose in the next election.

8. Anne McLellan – Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness – Landslide Anne won the last General Election by a slightly larger margin than she did in 2000. However, he margin of victory is still slim enough to warrant worry for the deputy PM. She is also losing Liberal friends in Alberta with the recent defection of David Kilgour. McLellan carried her riding of Edmonton Centre by 3.20% in 2004. A recent EKOS poll shows devastating effects of the Gomery inquiry on Alberta voters and while the Liberals may indeed lose the next election, McLellan may quite possibly lose her seat to the Conservative challenger.

9. Tony Ianno – Minister of State (Families and Caregivers) – Ianno won his riding of Trinity-Spadina by a mere 3.47% of the popular vote over the NDP candidate. The likely NDP candidate in the next election? None other than Olivia Chow.

10. Françoise Boivin – Liberal MP – Ms. Boivin won her Gatineau riding by 4.32%. Again, recent Quebec polling indicates a multiple point drop for the ruling Liberals since the Brault testimony publication ban was lifted.

The next General Election could come within weeks or months, however, most are saying that it will come this year. Will continuing testimony from the Gomery inquiry, due to end in early May, prompt the Conservatives, the NDP and the Bloc to cause the dissolution of Parliament or will the mounting brinksmanship accidentally trigger its collapse? One thing is for sure however: the Liberals stand to lose a number of seats and, quite potentially, their tenuous hold on power.