I was going over some of the election data from last year so that I could get a better idea of how many seats the Liberals stand to lose given new polling data.
Here are the slimmest of Liberal victories from last year’s General Election:
1. Liza Frulla – Minister of Heritage and Minister responsible for the status of women – She won the riding of Jeanne-Le Ber with a meager 0.38% margin of the popular vote over the Bloc Quebecois candidate. Her chief of staff John Welch allegedly was put on the Groupaction payroll by Jean Brault to organize for the Liberals in Quebec. Given the slim margin of her victory in 2004 and the new revelations concerning alleged corruption in her inner circle, Liza Frulla will surly lose her seat after the next election.
2. David Kilgour – Recent Liberal defector – He is currently the (independent) MP for Edmonton-Beaumont, the riding he won in 2004 by only 0.76% over the Conservative candidate Tim Uppal. Will Kilgour contest the nomination for the CPC or will he simply cross the floor over to the Tory ranks?
3. Rose-Marie Ur – Liberal MP – Her riding, Middlesex-Kent-Lambton provided her with a margin of less than 200 votes (or 0.84% of the popular vote) over Conservative Bev Shipley. Ur has been a Liberal MP since 1993 and now stands to lose her parliamentary status in the riding in the wake of the Sponsorship Scandal.
4. Ethel Blondin-Andrew – Minister of State (Northern Development) – Liberal MP from the riding of Western Arctic won her riding by 1.00% of the popular vote. Depending on the fallout of the Sponsorship Scandal in the Northwest Territories, Blondin-Andrew stands to lose her seat to an NDP challenger.
5. Paul Macklin – Liberal MP – His riding of Northumberland-Quinte West was lost by the Conservative candidate Doug Galt by only 1.36% of the popular vote.
6. Jerry Pickard – Liberal MP – Has held the riding of Chatham-Kent-Essex since 1988. He won in 2004 by 2.33% of the popular vote. Given recent numbers from Ontario polls, Pickard may very well lose his seat this year.
7. Pierre Pettigrew – Minister of Foreign Affairs – Mr. Softpower himself has failed miserably pressuring Iran on the Kazemi case. Pettigrew represents the Quebec riding of Papineau and won it by a mere margin of 2.77% of the popular vote. The must-see-tv status of the Gomery inquiry in Quebec has made “Liberal” a lethal name for one’s candidacy and Pettigrew is likely to lose in the next election.
8. Anne McLellan – Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness – Landslide Anne won the last General Election by a slightly larger margin than she did in 2000. However, he margin of victory is still slim enough to warrant worry for the deputy PM. She is also losing Liberal friends in Alberta with the recent defection of David Kilgour. McLellan carried her riding of Edmonton Centre by 3.20% in 2004. A recent EKOS poll shows devastating effects of the Gomery inquiry on Alberta voters and while the Liberals may indeed lose the next election, McLellan may quite possibly lose her seat to the Conservative challenger.
9. Tony Ianno – Minister of State (Families and Caregivers) – Ianno won his riding of Trinity-Spadina by a mere 3.47% of the popular vote over the NDP candidate. The likely NDP candidate in the next election? None other than Olivia Chow.
10. Françoise Boivin – Liberal MP – Ms. Boivin won her Gatineau riding by 4.32%. Again, recent Quebec polling indicates a multiple point drop for the ruling Liberals since the Brault testimony publication ban was lifted.
The next General Election could come within weeks or months, however, most are saying that it will come this year. Will continuing testimony from the Gomery inquiry, due to end in early May, prompt the Conservatives, the NDP and the Bloc to cause the dissolution of Parliament or will the mounting brinksmanship accidentally trigger its collapse? One thing is for sure however: the Liberals stand to lose a number of seats and, quite potentially, their tenuous hold on power.