Latest poll

160_poll_numbers_20040604.jpgThe Conservative Party of Canada is now at 31% of popular support, just 1% behind the Liberals at 32%.

The Conservatives have also edged the Liberals in Ontario (35%-32%) as the Liberals have dropped four points in this province.

The Liberals are also faltering in Quebec as they are experiencing a downward trend in that province losing a percentage point while the Bloc has added a percentage point. The liberals are continuing to lose that province as the Bloc-Liberal split widens 45%-28%.

Sixty-four percent of Canadians believe that it’s time for a change in government.

To look at the momentum of the leaders, Canadians told Ipsos-Reid whether or not their opinions have improved or worsened of the national party leaders (%improved/%worsened):

Stephen Harper: (32%/18%)
Paul Martin: (13%/48%)
Jack Layton: (28%/13%)

Stephen Harper has huge positive momentum while Paul Martin has greater negative momentum.

The seat projections are as follows:
Liberals: 115 to 119 seats
Conservatives: 110 to 114 seats
NDP: 17 to 21 seats
Bloc: 56 to 60 seats
Green Party: 2 seats

These numbers reflect that Canada has become a competitive democracy again. Also heartening is the fact that the Green Party may indeed have representatives in Parliament after the election.

With just over three weeks to go (an eternity during an election), these numbers may propel Stephen Harper into some form of government be it minority or majority. Yet, at the same time, Paul Martin may still have time to reverse this negative trend for his party although this will be very difficult.

This is a significant weekend for the two frontrunners. Today Stephen Harper released his full election platform and gave one of the best speeches of his political career. Paul Martin will travel to France for D-Day ceremonies.