Author: Stephen Taylor

[cross-posted to CTV.ca]

Polls will certainly cause madness if we follow them too closely, especially at this phase of the campaign.

I will admit though, seeing the SES numbers this morning left me somewhat baffled. How are these numbers possible when Paul Martin is playing hide-and-seek with the media and while Stephen Harper is releasing positive policy day-by-day?

Perhaps the Liberal Party is doing better in the polls because Mr. Martin isn’t in the public eye? In a somewhat parallel argument to Jason’s own explanation, perhaps Mr. Martin is such a turn-off for Canadian voters that his hiding in Stephen Harper’s shadow has helped Canadians forget the Great Ditherer and thus have helped increase Liberal polling numbers?

In fact, Conservative ads prominently feature Stephen Harper while Liberal ads mysteriously have Mr. Martin absent. While Mr. Harper’s presence hasn’t hurt Conservative numbers, Mr. Martin’s absence seems to have helped the Liberals in the SES poll.

My take on the stalling Tory numbers in the SES poll is that Canadians are still measuring all of the policies that the Conservatives are offering. There are certainly two policies in these early days that I’m certain will be echoed throughout the entire campaign: Stephen Harper’s 2% GST cut and the Conservative offer of choice in childcare.

Canadians know that the Liberals have lied to them over and over about the GST and their assessment of the Liberals is only fortified by the Adscam revelations that we heard this year. Canadians are more likely to believe the Conservatives on the issue of tax reduction than the Liberals, and are more likely to trust parents to choose how to raise their own children, rather than go for Mr. Martin’s proposed boondoggle-in-the-waiting. We’ve seen how the Liberals have butchered the healthcare system. Can we now trust them to create another bureaucracy?

Most of us in the blogosphere are all too eager to rush to interpret daily polling of respondents whom aren’t as fixated on the fine points and drama of politics. Mr. Harper is releasing a tremendous amount of good policy for Canadians, policy which they will need time to interpret. Stephen Harper is building the foundations of his campaign in these early days. When faced with the choice between twelve Liberal years of waste, mismanagement and corruption and a solid outline for Conservative change, I’m confident that the voters will have an easy choice – a choice for change – to make in the only poll that counts on January 23rd.

UPDATE: (and another thing) You’ll notice that the Liberal rise in the SES poll is at the expense of the NDP, as the Conservatives have remained steady.

Here is an example of headline extrapolation:

Liberals offer an extra $6 billion for day care

Well now, this is about as honest as saying:

Harper’s GST cut will save Canadians more than $500 trillion

As, ALW rightly points out, CTV and the Globe and Mail are all to eager to carry water for the Liberals announcing ‘increased’ funding (given a long enough timeline). In fact, assuming that the Liberal government forms government for the next 100 years, we could assume that Paul Martin’s childcare program will cost Canadians $100 billion. Now there’s a headline (and it doesn’t even account for inflation)

Here are some other extrapolated news headlines that we might see in the Globe soon:

NDP Plan Would Solve All of World’s Problems
Ingestion of pure (and positive) energy to replace soy by 2075.

Harper to Resign!
(sometime in the future, from some job)

Paul Martin so far one of the best Prime Minister’s of the 21st century
Chretien loyalists demand recount

I’m sure the uber-strategists in downtown Ottawa and on the primary campaign have figured out most of it (hopefully), but I was mulling over a few general strategies that the Tories should implement to boost their chances at forming government.

• Cite examples and anecdotes ad nauseum of discussions with lifelong Liberal supporters that are coming around to the Conservative message and that are finally starting to see a real choice to Paul Martin’s dithering corrupt government and that are likely to give Stephen Harper the nod because it’s time for a change.
• While respectfully disagreeing with Jack Layton on about 99.9% of issues, credit the NDP leader for being the true and unequivocal voice for people not voting Conservative in this country. Treat Paul Martin with disappointment, but respect Layton.
• Keep Paul Martin playing catch-up on Conservative policy announcements. Make sure to announce pivotal issues on Tuesday-Wednesday to reduce the amount of time the Liberals have to turn-around on the issue before the weekend.
• When you finally go negative on Liberal corruption, DO NOT use the Leader! Use safe Conservatives like MacKay, Solberg, and Kenney to hammer away at the Liberals. Do not allow Stephen Harper to get dirty.
• Save “black powder” moments for absolutely critical moments of the campaign. These moments would come, for example, a few days after a major Conservative gaffe in the second half of the campaign, or a week before E-day. “Black Powder” moments are major controversial plays that slam the brakes on the media’s current cycle and refocuses the entire campaign around the “explosive” revelation. An example of a black powder play would be the unearthing of an old video of Paul Martin admitting that national unity (as a topic) has been a successful tool for “manipulating voters”.
• Use the Harper family to emphasize the message that Stephen Harper is the Canadian everyman with a family, young kids and that he’s a guy that understands what everyday Canadians are going through.
• Emphasize at every opportunity that Martin is out of touch with the average Canadian.
• Canadians are going to be voting for vision and change. Paul Martin has been labeled “Mr. Dithers” and offers no vision. Work this seam of the election message.