The battle for second place

As we enter the third week of the federal election campaign, one cannot help but be struck by how early poll numbers suggesting a Conservative majority government have held. Nanos/CPAC numbers were fairly consistent over the past three days indicating an approximate fifteen point margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals. As one senior Liberal strategist told Sunmedia’s Greg Weston, “For us to make any significant gains would require that just about everything go terribly wrong for the Conservatives.”

We’re about to see the opening of a secondary race; the race for Stornoway is going to be of intense media focus. Consider this: the NDP has a greater chance of tieing or surpassing the Liberals than Liberal leader Stephane Dion has of challenging Stephen Harper for the lead. When we consider this truth, the narrative changes: this is no longer a race to replace the Prime Minister, this is a race to hold him to a minority. And, as NDP and Liberal numbers tighten up, there’s a new math problem for the left-wing collective calculator to solve. Indeed, pollster Angus-Reid yesterday showed results of a national tie between the Dippers and Grits with a larger sample size than usual and a margin of error of just 2.5%.

The New Democrats have always battled with the Liberals to be champions of the left, and now a new entrant – the Greens – are proving to be a serious challenge for Layton. In the past, we’ve seen the estranged Liberal family unite under the banner of the Think-Twice Coalition that usually includes folks like Buzz Hargrove, Maude Barlow, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May. Will we see an 11th hour alliance between Liberals and the Greens or will such a move sour the goodwill that May has built by making a case for her inclusion in the leader’s debate?

If the Tories play things responsibly and do some smart thinking – twice if need be – and refrain from being too eager to respond to each and every opportunity to put out some pushback, this race will focus on the territorial skirmish on the left. This week’s debate may just help Canadians break from the psychology of the Conservative-Liberal dichotomy and a solid performance from Jack Layton is important for this to happen. In fact, look for Stephen Harper to be a willing combatant against Layton when the NDP leader challenges him this Thursday. Harper and Layton will balance this by doing their best to dunk Dion with their respective right and left feet whenever he tries to get his head above water but we’ll see Elizabeth May come to his rescue in order to get some valuable stage time. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe will just muddle the left-wing message by taking up yet another podium and will do well to underscore the divide between a calm and collected Harper and the jumbled, disjointed side-show to his left. Though Canadians have been impressed with Duceppe’s English language debate performances in the past and are familiar with the Bloc leader, having a separatist voice among the muddled and crowded opposition will just lead more Canadians to side with Harper. If Layton finds his voice with Harper’s help, a strong debate performance by the NDP, in concert with the surging of his party’s poll numbers and the darkness embracing the Liberals may change the media narrative (and Canadian psychology) to think of the NDP as the champion of the underdog left. It is doubtful that the media will then focus on Harper vs. Layton for the rest of the race. They will, however, treat the Dion-Layton-May contest as its own.

The combination of these factors will put the Liberals in crisis mode as their war-room, faced with a question of survival, not only electoral but institutional, debates on whether to spend the limit or bank the few dollars that come its way during the rare fundraising event that is a general election.

What hasn’t been discussed may in fact be the clincher for a Harper majority this election. With so many parties eating each other’s lunch on the left, that magic 40% threshold for a majority may in fact be old math. Jean Chretien, facing a fractured right won a 155 seat majority with 38.5% of the popular vote. The left has pushed for proportional representation in the past in order to buck unity of ideology for increased representation in Parliament. After October 14th, as May, Layton and whoever replaces Dion work over the new math they might come to realize that unity presents the only way forward. For now, the left battles itself with four divided voices and the prize is second place.

Stephane Dion fails leadership test on Lesley Hughes

Much is being written and said about former Liberal candidate Lesley Hughes and her bizarre conspiracy theories that are more appropriately scrawled on the front of newspaper boxes rather than enunciated by a mainstream contender for Parliament.

As the story progressed from the unearthing of Hughes’ quote, to the firestorm that erupted, all the way to Dion’s delayed disposal of Hughes’ from the Liberal Party, the easy conclusion is that Hughes’ views are not only divergent but dumb but the looming question that we should ask is what does this say about Mr. Dion’s leadership?

Former Liberal candidate Lesley Hughes in her own words,

“German Intelligence (BND) claims to have warned the U.S. last June, the Israeli Mossad and Russian Intelligence in August. Israeli businesses, which had offices in the Towers, vacated the premises a week before the attacks, breaking their lease to do it. About 3000 Americans working there were not so lucky.”

And then this release from the Liberal war-room while Hughes is under fire from Conservatives for her anti-semitic remarks (h/t Janke):

From: Media@liberal.ca

Sent: Sep 25, 2008 6:51 PM
Subject: STATEMENT – DÉCLARATION [LE FRANÇAIS SUIT L’ANGLAIS]

For Immediate Release

September 25, 2008

Statement from Lesley Hughes, the Liberal candidate for Kildonan-St. Paul

As a journalist I have spoken and written passionately about the Holocaust. I am a lifelong friend and supporter of the Jewish community in Winnipeg and I am deeply distressed by any suggestion to the contrary. I find any interpretation of my journalism as anti-Semitic personally offensive and I heartily apologize for that perception.

-30-

Contact:
Liberal Party of Canada Press Office

Note that this release comes from the Liberal Press Office, not directly from Ms. Hughes herself. The Liberal Party would like you to know that Ms. Hughes is “offended” by her critics. This sort of apology is good enough for Stephane Dion.

Then when this non-apology is worked over by reporters, Liberal supporters start yelling at them. Look at the leadership Stephane Dion shows when faced by further questions by reporters on an issue un-resolved. Remember, Hughes said that “Israelis” had advance knowledge of 9/11. What would you do if you were the leader of a political party?

A Liberal supporter takes over the press conference and pushes back on journalists for the Liberal leader. CTV quoted Liberal supporters as saying that questions were “trivial and irrelevant”.

When it became clear for Dion that Ms. Hughes was turning into a political liability, Dion still wouldn’t dump Hughes from the campaign. Instead, he sought the advice of the Canadian Jewish Congress as to what is right or wrong. Of course, like anyone with any sense the CJC said the comments were wrong. Mr. Dion didn’t need to outsource his decision making here. What to do about a nutty conspiracy theorist that suggests the Americans and Israelis orchestrated their own mass-murder in order to build a case for war is about the easiest test of leadership there is; it’s Leadership 101, this person has no place in any serious political party.

Mr. Dion did the right thing in the end, but only after facing embarrassing questions and only after delegating his judgment to an outside group. This incident speaks to the disturbing presumed acceptance of these views in some of the parties on the left but more importantly, it show that when faced with perhaps the easiest test of leadership, Mr. Dion failed.