Month: June 2004

Stephen Harper won the debate. Jack Layton, Gilles Duceppe and Harper used Paul Martin as a punching-bag tonight and often times the two on the left did the dirty work for Stephen Harper. The Prime Minister-in-waiting attacked Martin when he needed to and Jack and Gilles backed him up. Stephen Harper won the debate because Paul Martin lost.

Paul Martin looked ill and stumbled around and looked defeated in his post-debate interview. The man looked exhausted.

Harper played the boring and non-threatening man again and Paul Martin’s false attacks on the Conservative leader were effectively rebuffed by Stephen Harper and I believe that the public believed him.

Defining moments of the debate:

Paul Martin was weak when he responded to Layton continuous attacks by saying “Did your advisors tell you to talk all the time?”

Jack Layton kept talking and talking and Paul Martin turned to Harper and asked “Didn’t you have a question for me, Mr. Harper?” Harper ignored Martin’s plea for a lifeline from Jack Layton and let Layton ravage him some more.

Layton accused Paul Martin of arrogance for saying that only two parties can form the government.

Harper slammed Layton for blurring the lines between private delivery and privatization calling them one and same. Maybe he read my post.

Jack Layton co-opted the Green Party policy (taking advantage of the absence of Jim Harris) on investigating the causes of disease instead of just investing more in healthcare.

Stephen Harper said that he and his government will not table legislation that will change a woman’s right to choose.

Martin looked like he desperately wanted to take on Stephen Harper but Jack Layton wouldn’t let him often times in the debate.

Harper to Martin: “our troops had to hitch a ride to Afghanistan, they had to hitch a ride!”

Paul Martin came off stronger than expected

Gilles Duceppe was very effective and looked comfortable

Jack Layton smiled during every syllable he uttered

Stephen Harper was calm, cool and collected

I don’t believe that anyone in particular won or lost the debate. I expected Paul Martin to stutter and to appear lost. He did not do as badly as expected. Gilles Duceppe looked like he commanded the debate. Jack Layton offered positive this and positive that and played to the camera. Stephen Harper held his own.

Notable notables:

• Martin conceded that two parties can form the government (Liberal or Conservative)
• Duceppe immediately declared that this election was not a question of sovereignty (as predicted)
• Harper and Duceppe sparred over Bombardier and ending corporate welfare. Duceppe cited GM in Ontario receiving subsidies while Harper is against corporate handouts
• Harper on Layton: ‘must think he lives on a different planet than Americans’. Layton is against NATO, NAFTA, treaty obligations etc.
• Layton wants to change the system through proportional representation. He believes that this will include more women, minorities and native Canadians
• Duceppe kept referring to the fiscal imbalance which exists between Ottawa and the provinces. Harper was able to score points on this issue while Duceppe lectured Layton slamming him for not serving Quebec’s interests in this respect.
• Everyone but Martin: The Liberals are responsible for the fiscal imbalance
• Martin to Layton: You will massively raise taxes and believe that the government should be responsible for everything
• Harper to Martin: Will you raise taxes to pay for your programs like Dalton McGuinty? You raised taxes 62 times.
• Harper to Duceppe: Bombardier doesn’t need lobbbyists in Ottawa to influence the cabinet. Because of you, Quebeckers cannot replace this government.
• Duceppe to Harper: We’re not responsible for your weekness.
• Harper grouped CSL, Earnscliffe and Groupaction together
• Harper differentiated between privitization and private delivery
• Duceppe, Martin and Layton: The rights of the minority should not be dictated by the voice of the majority
• Harper: The people should decide moral issues and not the courts
• Layton: Called Quebec a nation within a nation

As predicted, Paul Martin did “Tell Quebec that a Liberal vote is a vote for federalism and a vote for Canada. This will go along with the ‘wrapping-oneself-in-the-flag’ strategy which Martin has used throughout the campaign. Also, he will reiterate that a vote for the Bloc is a whispered vote for the Conservative party.”

As predicted, Gilles Duceppe did “Tell Quebeckers that Quebec’s interests can only be represented by the Bloc Quebecois and that the Liberals must be punished. Sovereignty will be mentioned but only in passing.”

Stephen Harper also did “Suggest to Quebeckers that his Conservatives will form the next government and that he is taking applications from Quebec ridings whom might want to be represented by a cabinet minister. Rhetorically ask Quebeckers whether they would prefer have representatives in government or in opposition. Harper may even coordinate/participate in attacks led by Duceppe to tip that minority balance that much further.”

What was unexpected to me was that Gilles Duceppe attacked Stephen Harper more than he attacked Paul Martin. Is this rooted in the latest polls or does Duceppe fear Conservative gains in Quebec?

Low point of the debate: Jack Layton called Quebec a nation within a nation. What is he thinking pandering to separatist votes that he will not get?

The French language debate will occur tonight at the National Arts Centre in Ottawa. Stephen Harper, Paul Martin, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe will discuss the issues and confront each other before a studio audience and will be watched closely by many in Quebec and elsewhere and by a few Anglophone pundits throughout Canada.

The focus of the debate will be Quebec and Paul Martin will try to claw back lost ground from the frontrunner in that province, Gilles Duceppe.

What they will do:

Paul Martin
Tell Quebec that a Liberal vote is a vote for federalism and a vote for Canada. This will go along with the ‘wrapping-oneself-in-the-flag’ strategy which Martin has used throughout the campaign. Also, he will reiterate that a vote for the Bloc is a whispered vote for the Conservative party. (funny how Martin believes that Bloc values, such as separatism, are preferable to Conservative values).

Gilles Duceppe
Tell Quebeckers that Quebec’s interests can only be represented by the Bloc Quebecois and that the Liberals must be punished. Sovereignty will be mentioned but only in passing.

Jack Layton
Tell Quebeckers that his party represents the Bloc’s values minus separation. Layton will impress in the debate as he is relatively unknown and well-spoken in french.

Stephen Harper
Appeal to Quebec’s desire for decentralization and tout lower taxes. His key message will be that the Sponsorship Scandal is not a Quebec scandal, not a Canadian scandal, but a Liberal scandal. He will not mention military spending unless asked. When attacked on social issues by Martin and by Layton, Harper will mention that democracy is better served by debate than by direction from above (of which, quite frankly, Quebec has had enough)

What they just might do in order to have a good showing:

Paul Martin
Emphasize his Quebec team made up of separatists to emphasize a bridge building effort with nationalists. Lapierre might even get a mention.

Gilles Duceppe
Downplay separatism, a lot. Instead declare that the Bloc is for Quebec’s interests in Canada.

Jack Layton
Aim left and hard. Layton has nothing to lose in Quebec. He might just present himself as the only politician on the ‘true left’ as the Bloc is broadening its base.

Stephen Harper
Suggest to Quebeckers that his Conservatives will form the next government and that he is taking applications from Quebec ridings whom might want to be represented by a cabinet minister. Rhetorically ask Quebeckers whether they would prefer have representatives in government or in opposition. Harper may even coordinate/participate in attacks led by Duceppe to tip that minority balance that much further.

Bottom line
Layton and Harper will be marginalized in this debate but will impress with their French language skills. Although a liberal minority would serve Layton better than a conservative minority, don’t expect Layton to attack Harper in the French language debate as this will appear tangential. Layton’s biggest score will be his demonstration of his capacity in French to English-Canada.

The debate will focus on the two front-runners, Duceppe and Martin with coordinated attacks by Harper and Layton respectively.

The must do
Paul Martin must win this debate and must show significantly better than Gilles Duceppe or his fortunes in the polls will not change and then trend will continue towards a Conservative minority government on June 28th.

The surprise of the evening
Green Party leader Jim Harris will streak across the stage