The latest EKOS poll

Big news today in Ottawa is the new Governor General appointee and the EKOS poll showing Liberals flirting within 0.3% of their worst polling result in recent history. At 23.9% the Liberal Party of Canada has no fared so poorly since December 4th, 2008 when the country put the Conservatives into the Canadian polling stratosphere as Stephane Dion, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe tried their bid for a coalition government.

The coalition attempt was a dark time for the Liberal Party, a once mighty Canadian political institution now reduced to banding together with socialists and separatists in an attempt to remove their unpopular leader while gaining power at the same time.

Stephane Dion never led a non-coalesced Liberal Party so unpopular as the current Liberal Party under Michael Ignatieff if these latest numbers are to be believed. Dion was never believable as a Prime Minister but he was a likable fellow. Unfortunately for Michael Ignatieff, one can see him as Prime Ministerial, however he’s not very likable. In a conversation with a senior Liberal last year, it was explained to me that Ignatieff suffers a sincerity gap. Is he believable? Does he fight for things he believes in? What is it that he believes in?

Here’s the breakdown of the EKOS poll:
CPC 34.4%
LPC 23.9%
NDP 17.9%

This is the lowest level of support that I can remember for the Liberals during a non-event. Indeed, these numbers come in after the G20 where Michael Ignatieff was MIA as a political leader in reaction to events.

If we take a closer look at the numbers too, we learn that they might actually be skewed against the Conservatives.

The EKOS poll’s polling sample included
404 French speaking (31% of weighted sample)
1312 English speaking (69% of weighted sample)

Out of Canada’s, only about 21% are francophone (of population).

EKOS’ poll finds support for Conservatives to be lacking among francophones:

CPC support
English speaking 36.3%
French speaking 13.5%

LPC support
English speaking 30.6%
French speaking 18.5%

If francophones were over-represented in EKOS’ sample, is the news worse for the Liberals?

  • http://www.punditsguide.ca Pundits’ Guide

    Two things, Stephen:

    (i) A blogger has discovered an error with the regional/weekly breakdowns reported for the Liberals and NDP in Atlantic Canada in this most recent poll. See: http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.com/2010/07/ekos-tories-led-44-and-105-in-past-two.html

    (ii) I sure appreciate the irony of your using census data to weight those polling results. Yes, yes, I know language spoken at home is on the short form, but still. :-)

  • The_Iceman

    My biggest problem with the EKOS numbers (as per usual) are the inflated Green numbers. You are probably looking at 100 to 1 odds that they crack 11% in popular support in the next election.

  • Beer and Popcorn

    It will be interesting to see what impact the recent G-20 will have on the NDP and left-leaning Liberal vote in Toronto.

    I don't have any scientific evidence, but I've heard a few left leaning colleagues talk about how turned off they were by the whole get up in a cop's face and yell “I've got my rights” to the other events that we all saw on the news. This will not be good for the left leaning NDPers and Liberals who go to work each day but support only peaceful social engineering.

    These folks won't flip to the Blue side, but they might not be too willing to get out and bang on doors and the right leaning Liberals might be very uncomfortable with any talk of a coalition that would make them bedfellows with the John Clarke's and the anti-poverty crowd.

  • FoxtrotBravo

    Unfortunately for Michael Ignatieff, one can see him as Prime Ministerial, however he’s not very likable.

    I strongly disagree that Ignatieff is PM material. He speaks poorly, has weak organizational skills, zero apparent leadership skills, he has no vision, no drive, inspires no one, he’s a glorified history teacher who openly admits he knows nothing about finance, and he is not even Canadian to boot. You are, in my opinion, giving him way to much credit … way to much. The fact that he is leader of the Liberal Party is offensive in every possible way.

  • Liz J

    The over the top vitriolic bluster from Marlene Jennings and Mark Holland isn't exactly helping them either, even some Liberals are of the same opinion. Guess it speaks to the divisions within the party as well. Just as they got fed up with Dosie Dosanjh carping on about the Afghan “Detainees”.

    This poll, like any poll isn't to be taken too seriously , the source and the timing plays into all polls but skewing polls is all part of their game when there's no election in the foreseeable future.
    The media isn't interested in it for different reasons, for those who don't dissect polls among the public, their Liberals look in bad shape, which of course they are, and they know it.

  • Canadiansense

    The also have the other category at over 2% since prorogation.

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    Funny how that prorogation anger really stuck eh?