Damien Kurek resigns so Pierre Poilievre can lead

Battle River–Crowfoot MP Damien Kurek officially resigned from Parliament today. The move will trigger a by-election for the riding where Pierre Poilievre will throw his hat into the ring in order to secure a seat in the the House of Commons.

Damien Kurek and Pierre Poilievre
Damien Kurek and Pierre Poilievre

Despite growing the Conservative seat count and the party’s popular vote, the Conservative leader lost his own seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in the riding of Carleton. Poilievre had held the Ottawa region seat for 21 years.

Battle River–Crowfoot is a rural Alberta riding which occupies the space East of Highway 2 between Calgary and Edmonton. Poilievre volunteers have already started door knocking in the riding in anticipation of a by-election to be called within six months. For his part, Prime Minister Mark Carney has indicated that a by-election will happen sooner rather than later.

Former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer taken up leadership duties in Parliament while Poilievre maintains his status as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.

Poilievre will face a leadership review likely in January of 2026 at the upcoming Conservative policy convention. Poilievre still enjoys widespread support within the party.

The collapse of Jagmeet Singh‘s NDP and the agitation of US President Donald Trump to remove Justin Trudeau and then install Mark Carney over a kayfabe fight on trade and sovereigty proved to be catastrophic for a Conservative Party that was on its way to forming a majority government just months ago.

So, Damien Kurek steps into the role of ‘good guy’ and steps aside so Pierre Poilievre can take his seat in the Commons. Perhaps we’ll be calling him Senator Kurek some day?

Maxime Bernier officially running in York Centre

It’s getting a bit sad isn’t it?

Maxime Bernier has announced that it’s official, he’ll be standing as the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) candidate in the upcoming by-election in York Centre. The former Harper cabinet minister who ran for Conservative Party leadership losing to Andrew Scheer tweeted that he had filed his paperwork to run for MP in the vacated seat.

Bernier left the Conservative Party in a huff after losing the leadership contest and after subsequently realizing that this meant that coming in second place meant that the party wouldn’t be under his control. Mad Max left the party to start his own and most saw it as an exercise in spite.

Maxime Bernier prior to failing the marshmallow test

Indeed, in the subsequent election, the People’s Party covered the margin between a Liberal win and a Conservative loss in about a half dozen seats.

Bernier has never faced a contested leadership in his new party, or even a vote for a leadership review after his complete washout as the leader of a party that won 0 seats in the last election.

The word is that Bernier misses his job as Member of Parliament and that the loss of his own seat in Beauce (that he won as a Conservative) was a particularly painful.

His bid for York Centre is unlikely to be successful, but he does have the chance (again) to be the spoiler for Conservatives who won the seat with Mark Adler in 2011.

Julius Tiangson will be the Conservative candidate in the race. He previously ran for the Conservative Party in Mississauga Centre in 2015. Ya’ara Saks will be the Liberal candidate.

The York Centre by-election is on October 26th and was called due to Liberal MP Michael Levitt resigning the seat to be the CEO of Canadian Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Centre for Holocaust Studies.

We need exit polling for Canadian elections

On October 21st, Justin Trudeau was reduced to minority government status with stronger Conservative opposition forming dominant regional representation in the west and a resurgent Bloc Quebecois spoiling the night for federalist parties in Quebec. Yet, despite this black eye for Trudeau, much of the focus has been on Andrew Scheer’s campaign. Why did he come up short? What held him back? Why could this new opposition leader not do something unprecedented in Canadian history and unseat a one-term majority Prime Minister on his first outing?

Was it Mr. Scheer’s social conservatism? Was it the well-worn Liberal narrative in Ontario that Doug Ford’s “cuts” would be a template for a federal Conservative government? Was it climate change? Many theories abound among jaw-wagging pundits angling for clicks and among Liberals looking to introduce discord into the Conservative party. But why is there such a cottage industry of political know-it-alls offering up theories?

We lack useful data when it comes to why people vote the way they do in Canadian elections.

American context

In the United States, exit polls are conducted the day of the election as voters leave the polls. They are asked who they voted for and why they voted as they did. Their demographics, districts, and psychographics are jotted down and they are asked the kind of questions we are only speculating about in Canada today.

American pundits and commentators are able to appreciate why women in Wisconsin rejected one candidate, while college educated men in Colorado supported another. Depending on the depth of the survey, illuminating results can be derived that can have a real impact on representation and outreach.

So, why don’t we do exit polling in Canadian elections?

It mostly comes down to cost. Pollsters typically take 1000 person samples for their polls on the best of days. This sample is distributed across the country. A person’s reasons for voting Liberal may differ significantly in one part of the country and among one demographic than it may among others in another part of the country. These divisions raise the margin of error among an already small sample. Nik Nanos has an alternative approach where he queries a rolling sample of a few hundred people per day and then pools the result.

Pollsters are already preoccupied with making the best showing as confirmed by the actual electoral result. Exit polls, by contrast, do not have a comparative check on accuracy and therefore don’t award reputational kudos.

Yet, this missing data creates a huge blindspot and hurts our ability to understand the result. Currently, we add up the seats and speculate from there.

Better understanding leads to better representation

Furthermore, it is important to appreciate late-breaking issues that were determining factors in why electors cast their ballot. Vote-switching is also a phenomenon not well-quantified in Canada one that becomes more and more important as Canadians vote strategically in a fractured multi-party system that elects a candidate under first-past-the-post.

Of course, it is illegal to broadcast or disseminate an election survey during the blackout period defined by Canada’s elections regulator. Most importantly, this includes election day itself.

No person shall cause to be transmitted to the public, in an electoral district on polling day before the close of all of the polling stations in that electoral district, the results of an election survey that have not previously been transmitted to the public. 

Canada Elections Act

However, polling can be conducted with the results held until the polls close. Canadian elections and exit polling – it’s long overdue.

So, what halted Andrew Scheer’s victory in Ontario? In Quebec? For that matter, why did Singh lose his caucus in Quebec? Why did Trudeau lose his majority? Without exit polling, we are left to rely on speculation and hot air from pundits.