Oakville North—Burlington

Created in the 2015 redistribution, Oakville North—Burlington spans the rapidly growing suburban areas of north Oakville and northeast Burlington in Halton Region. The riding’s landscape is defined by new subdivisions, the QEW and Dundas Street corridors, and a young family demographic drawn by relatively affordable housing within commuting distance of Toronto. Effie Triantafilopoulos of the Progressive Conservatives had been the riding’s only MPP, winning in both 2018 and 2022, and she entered the 2025 campaign highlighting investments she had secured for Joseph Brant Hospital in Burlington, Oakville Trafalgar Memorial Hospital, and five new schools in the community.

The race featured the same Liberal challenger as in 2022, and the contest again turned on suburban growth issues: the pace of housing construction relative to schools and health care, the proposed Highway 413, and provincial planning policies that many residents felt were imposed without adequate local consultation.

Candidates

Effie Triantafilopoulos (Progressive Conservative) — A lawyer with a Bachelor of Laws from the University of Ottawa and a Master of Laws in International Trade and Competition Law, as well as a BA from the University of Toronto, Triantafilopoulos served as Chief of Staff to federal ministers at Industry, Treasury Board, and External Affairs, where she was involved in implementing the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement. She also served as CEO and Director of Save the Children Canada before entering provincial politics in 2018.

Kaniz Mouli (Liberal) — A business leader in the financial services sector with an MBA from Queen’s University and a Bachelor of Commerce, Mouli brought over a decade of experience providing strategic advice and leading organizational transformation initiatives in both the private and public sectors. She ran for the second consecutive election in the riding.

Caleb Smolenaars (NDP) — A McMaster University labour studies student and CUPE Local 3906 member who grew up in the riding, Smolenaars organized and led climate strikes as a high school student. They completed a co-op internship in the offices of NDP MPPs Kristyn Wong-Tam and Sol Mamakwa.

Ali Hosny (Green Party) — A long-time Oakville resident and marketing professional, Hosny campaigned on climate action, housing affordability, and sustainable community planning.

Charles Wroblewski ran for the New Blue Party.

Local Issues

The proposed Highway 413 remained a significant concern in the riding throughout the 2022–2025 term. While the highway’s planned route runs through the broader Halton and Peel regions rather than directly through the riding, its implications for Greenbelt land, agricultural preservation, and regional traffic patterns resonated with voters. In March 2024, the federal government dropped its environmental assessment of the highway, clearing a path for the province to proceed. Oakville and Burlington councils had previously passed motions opposing the project, and environmental groups continued to argue the highway would pave over protected farmland and wetlands while doing little to relieve congestion.

The Greenbelt controversy that unfolded in 2023 cast a shadow over provincial land-use policy across the Golden Horseshoe. The Auditor General’s report in August 2023, which found the government’s removal of Greenbelt lands had favoured well-connected developers, and the subsequent resignation of Housing Minister Steve Clark, heightened scrutiny of provincial development decisions in rapidly growing ridings like Oakville North—Burlington. Premier Ford’s reversal of the Greenbelt land swaps in September 2023 did not fully quell concerns about development pressure on the region’s agricultural and natural heritage lands.

Health care and school capacity were persistent local concerns as residential construction outpaced community infrastructure. Joseph Brant Hospital in Burlington and Oakville Trafalgar Memorial Hospital both faced ongoing staffing challenges and growing patient volumes. The availability of family physicians remained a challenge across the riding, and parents in newer subdivisions contended with overcrowded schools and portables as the pace of school construction lagged behind housing development.