On May 5, 2015, Alberta's 44-year Progressive Conservative dynasty came to an abrupt end as Rachel Notley's NDP swept to a majority government with 54 seats — a result almost no one had predicted when the writ was dropped on April 7. Premier Jim Prentice, who had called the election a year early to seek a mandate for his budget, instead presided over the worst defeat in the party's history. All 87 ridings were contested, and turnout reached 57.0%, the highest in 22 years.

The campaign unfolded against the backdrop of a severe oil price crash. West Texas Intermediate crude had plunged from over $100 per barrel in mid-2014 to below $50 by early 2015, blowing a roughly $7-billion hole in provincial revenues. Prentice's March 26 budget raised personal taxes — including a new Health Care Contribution Levy of up to $1,000 per year — while leaving the corporate tax rate untouched, a combination that drew sharp criticism from both left and right. His earlier comment that Albertans needed to "look in the mirror" regarding the province's finances sparked the viral hashtag #PrenticeBlamesAlbertans and set the tone for the campaign.

Results

The NDP won 54 seats with 40.6% of the popular vote, up from just 4 seats and roughly 10% of the vote in 2012. The Wildrose Party, rebuilt under new leader Brian Jean after the December 2014 floor-crossing debacle, won 21 seats with 24.2% and became the Official Opposition. The PCs were reduced to 9 seats with 27.8% of the vote — a loss of 52 seats. The Alberta Liberals won a single seat, and the Alberta Party elected its first-ever MLA.

The NDP swept all 21 Edmonton ridings and won 15 of 25 Calgary seats. The Wildrose dominated rural Alberta, while the PCs were left with a handful of seats scattered across Calgary and central Alberta. One of the tightest races in the province was Calgary-Glenmore, where NDP candidate Anam Kazim and PC incumbent Linda Johnson each received 7,015 votes on election night. Kazim won the subsequent recount by 6 votes.

Party Leaders

Jim Prentice (Progressive Conservative) — A native of South Porcupine, Ontario, Prentice earned a commerce degree from the University of Alberta and a law degree from Dalhousie University. He served as a federal Conservative MP for Calgary Centre-North from 2004 to 2010, holding cabinet posts including Indian Affairs, Industry, and Environment under Prime Minister Stephen Harper. After leaving federal politics for the private sector, he won the Alberta PC leadership on September 6, 2014, on the first ballot with 77% of the vote and was sworn in as premier on September 15. Despite winning his own riding of Calgary-Foothills on election night, Prentice resigned as party leader and MLA immediately, disclaiming his seat under the Elections Act.

Rachel Notley (NDP) — A labour lawyer by training, Notley was the daughter of former Alberta NDP leader Grant Notley, who died in a 1984 plane crash. She held degrees from the University of Alberta and Osgoode Hall Law School and had specialized in workers' compensation advocacy before entering politics. First elected in Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008, she won the NDP leadership in October 2014 with 70% of the vote on the first ballot. The 2015 campaign was her first as party leader, and a strong performance in the April 23 leaders' debate — where Prentice's dismissive remark about math drew widespread backlash — helped consolidate support behind her candidacy.

Brian Jean (Wildrose) — A former federal Conservative MP for Fort McMurray-Athabasca from 2004 to 2014, Jean entered provincial politics after Danielle Smith's December 2014 floor-crossing left the Wildrose Party in ruins. He won the Wildrose leadership on March 28, 2015 — less than six weeks before election day — with 55% of the vote. Running on a platform of fiscal conservatism and rural representation, Jean led the party back from near-collapse and won his own seat of Fort McMurray-Conklin.

David Swann (Liberal, interim leader) — A physician and former Medical Officer of Health, Swann had represented Calgary-Mountain View since 2004 and previously served as permanent Liberal leader from 2008 to 2011. Appointed interim leader on February 1, 2015, after Raj Sherman's resignation, Swann held Calgary-Mountain View as the party's sole surviving seat.

Campaign Issues

The oil price crash and the provincial budget dominated the campaign. Prentice's decision to raise personal taxes while holding the corporate rate steady alienated voters on multiple fronts — fiscal conservatives objected to tax increases in principle, while progressives saw the budget as protecting corporate interests at the expense of ordinary Albertans. The Wildrose attacked the tax hikes; the NDP proposed raising the corporate tax rate instead.

Four decades of PC governance had produced a string of scandals that eroded public trust. Former premier Alison Redford had resigned in March 2014 amid controversy over personal use of government aircraft and plans for a taxpayer-funded penthouse suite in a government building. The Auditor General found her office had spent public funds inappropriately. Prentice had positioned himself as a reformer, but the floor-crossing of Wildrose MLAs in December 2014 — an attempt to absorb the opposition — reinforced perceptions of PC entitlement.

Healthcare wait times and system management were persistent concerns. The leaders' debate on April 23 proved pivotal: pre-debate polling showed a close three-way race, but Prentice's comment to Notley that "I know that math is difficult" — widely seen as condescending — generated the viral hashtag #MathIsHard and helped crystallize the NDP's momentum.

Notable Outcomes

The end of the PC dynasty — 44 consecutive years in power under seven premiers from Peter Lougheed to Jim Prentice — was the defining story of the election. It was the longest unbroken stretch of single-party government in Canadian history at that time, and the NDP had never before formed government in Alberta.

Every one of the nine MLAs who had crossed the floor with Danielle Smith in December 2014 either lost their nominations or failed to win re-election. Several PC cabinet ministers were also defeated, including Health Minister Stephen Mandel, Education Minister Gordon Dirks (who lost Calgary-Elbow to the Alberta Party's Greg Clark), and former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk. Only three members of Prentice's cabinet won their seats.