Hamilton Centre

Hamilton Centre had been a New Democratic stronghold at the federal level since the riding's creation in 2004, but the 2025 election brought a dramatic shift. Liberal candidate Aslam Rana defeated both the Conservative and NDP candidates in a three-way contest, ending the NDP's two-decade hold on the seat. Incumbent NDP MP Matthew Green, first elected in 2019, was seeking a third term but finished third as strategic voting dynamics reshaped the race.

Candidates

Aslam Rana (Liberal)* -- A civil engineer with a master's degree in transportation engineering from Toronto Metropolitan University, Rana immigrated to Canada from Pakistan in 2003 through the skilled worker pathway. After arriving, he worked multiple jobs -- including two gas stations and a pizza restaurant -- to support his family before building a career in infrastructure planning with the City of Toronto. His campaign focused on housing, infrastructure investment, and economic opportunity.

Hayden Lawrence (Conservative) -- A political organizer with over a decade of Conservative volunteer experience across Hamilton and Niagara, Lawrence has worked at Queen's Park for Premier Doug Ford, managed business development for the 2022 Canada Summer Games, and managed corporate partnerships for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Forge FC. He also worked in law as a clerk. He received a notable endorsement from LiUNA International Vice President Joseph Mancinelli.

Matthew Green (NDP) -- Green made history as the first Black Canadian to represent Hamilton in Parliament since Lincoln Alexander. He held a BA in political science and legal studies from Acadia University and previously served as Hamilton's first Black city councillor, representing Ward 3 from 2014 to 2018. Before entering federal politics he served as executive director of the Hamilton Centre for Civic Inclusion.

Sandy Crawley (Green Party) -- An actor and musician, Crawley campaigned on diversifying Hamilton's economy beyond its industrial base, supporting the creative sector, and advancing a guaranteed annual personal income.

David Speicher (People's Party - PPC) -- The People's Party candidate in Hamilton Centre.

About the Riding

Hamilton Centre encompasses the city's dense urban core, including the downtown, the waterfront along Hamilton Harbour, and established lower-city neighbourhoods. With a population of roughly 126,000, the riding is characterized by high urban density, a large renter population, and significant socioeconomic challenges. The median household income sits well below the provincial average, and nearly one in five residents lives below the poverty line.

The 2025 campaign was dominated by affordability, housing, and employment concerns. Over ten per cent of the riding's housing stock is in need of major repair, and the threat of U.S. tariffs on manufacturing loomed large in a city whose economy has historically been tied to steelmaking and heavy industry. Downtown safety and revitalization were also prominent issues, with residents calling for improved walkability, attention to vacant buildings, and enhanced community services.

The riding's shift from NDP to Liberal in 2025 mirrored a broader national pattern in which the Liberal Party, under new leader Mark Carney, consolidated progressive votes in urban centres where the NDP had previously been competitive.