Fact, fiction and speculation

Fact: “The Liberal Opposition plans to introduce a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons on Monday” (source)

But: Notice of motions are introduced regularly by the opposition. Motions are always introduced in advance. Generally five motions are introduced. The Liberals having a confidence motion on the table are simply having the confidence motion on the table as an option. Potential motions must prested in advance and today (Friday) is the earliest opportunity for the opposition to have that option on the table for Monday. They may not actually move on voting on the motion.

Speculation: Anybody wonder why Stephane Dion didn’t immediately step down after the election? His people have been quiet on his prospects as leader of a coalition government. In the Liberal constitution, if I remember correctly, the only way Dion can be replaced in a pinch is if he either dies or resigns. If Dion doesn’t resign, the Liberals may govern under Dion if a coalition is formed.

Fiction: A new Bloc-Liberal-NDP coalition government would be viable beyond their agreement on the $1.95-per-vote subsidy.

Speculation: If the Liberals-NDP believe they can form a coalition with tangential Bloc support, the GG may have no other option to call an election as 77+37=114 LPC/NDP vs. CPC’s 143. The GG may see this as the only stable option.

Fact: The Conservatives (in the broader picture) want to move forward on the economy. The opposition wanted to hold the government back on the campaign welfare package.

Fact: The Throne Speech passed in the House yesterday after the economic statement was read. The opposition approved the government’s mandate knowing full well that they’d be bringing it to the brink this weekend.

Fact: On mandates, if the Liberals were to form government, they would do so after receiving the lowest proportion of votes in their party’s history. Further, if Dion does resign and if Ignatieff does become Prime Minister, he would do so without having been presented to Canadians during the democratic process that we call elections. Talk about an affront to democracy!

Fact: The opposition accused the government of not having a plan for the economy during an election and now they accuse the government of the same now. What has changed? The Conservatives now want to end campaign welfare.

Fact: Cooler heads recognize that the American elephant will move on the economy in new year and that any action with respect to our integrated economies would be better done in coordination rather than prematurely.

Speculation: Canadians will not accept a surprise Liberal-NDP coalition backed by a party that wants to destroy the country that would stand to be dismantled under the proposed funding changes of the Conservative government. By opposing campaign welfare reform, the Liberals are sustaining the existence of the Bloc for their own ambition. Canadians will not accept a surprise Prime Minister unvetted by the electorate.

Speculation: What are the terms of a NDP-backed Liberal coalition government? Cancellation of the $50 Billion corporate tax cut? What are the Bloc’s terms?

Comments

comments

  • Ted

    You guys must be shitting your pants if this is the best you can come up with. I hear the PMO is imploding.

  • Ruth

    I say to the Conservatives, drop the welfare for your party and we will all donate more. Let the other parties look foolish by still taking their 1.95 a vote in tough economic times.

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    You must have great sources in the PMO. LOL

  • http://www.stephentaylor.ca Stephen Taylor

    Yes we can?

  • David K

    I love how we (the electorate) are just sitting by and watching what the opposition are going to do. I voted for a conservative government, and that vote paid off! – Is there not something wrong with the fact that parliamentarians of the parties that LOST are making backroom deals to undermine the will of the people?

    Then again, this may be very typical for Canadians. We sit back and get screwed and say ‘Oh well, our time will come again.” OUR TIME IS HERE! Our will as electors was passed on October 14th and we can just sit back while this backwards coalition is formed right before our eyes….Shame.

    So when do we, the people get our say?

  • Cliff

    Well…isn't this an interesting turn of events…the Liberals now want to form a goverment with 26% of the popular vote and spend us into deficit…they have no plan, they have made no recommendations…they just want to throw good money after bad…
    The auto industry…well lets spend more money producing cars that nobody wants to buy…after all isn't that what they did for years…
    Dion and the LIberals are hungry for power….the Green Shaft…and he apparently will do anything to get it…even crawl in bed with the separatists.
    Wasn't it just a week ago that Dion mocked the NDP for wanting an election…eerrr…that was before taxpayers were being asked to stop giving their hard earned tax dollars to political parties including those who want to break up the country…it really just boils down to entitlements doesn't it…certainly not sacrifice certainly not ethics….just self interest….

  • Timothy Coderre

    A Question:

    Is it possible, that the GG would rule that she will neither dissolve Parliament, nor establish a coalition Government, but would force the parliamentarians to establish a workable/agreeable arrangement , or , is she constitutionally bound to either dissolve or establish a coalition Government?

  • Kelly

    One fact i would like to know is the real cost to taxpayers of deficit spending.

    I once read somewhere that for the gov't to “invest” a dollar, it must collect $1.40 to account for the 30% burns off the top os every dollar collected.

    Moreover, if the gov't is in deficit and the gov't has to borrow against future taxpayer “earnings,” what is the real cost to taxpayers over the years until the debt is repaid?

    How much return on investment do we need to see to justify massive deficit spending?

    I am not convinced of the value of bailouts and so-called “stimulus” spending, but i wish the politicians would spell it out for the rest of us knuckledraggers.

  • Tom1969ca

    The thing that concerns me the most is that all the scenarios dealing with the question of “what will the GG do?” assume that she is a neutral umpire of sorts, who will in every case do what is just and right. The fact is that she is a Liberal appointee and beholden to the LPC for her present position. As far as I can determine there is no means provided for removal of a Governor General without the Queen's consent; therefore it would seem that, unless our 82-year-old monarch chooses to involve herself in a colonial matter, Mme. Jean is free to act in this matter as she sees fit – even that means allowing a coalition of 114 MPs to attempt to form a government with a party of 143 MPs as opposition. (This speculation is open to dispute by anyone with corrective facts, of course…)

  • DazzlinDino

    Funny that this started over $1.95 per vote, something that even Liberal voters aren't willing to donate to their party. $50 buck a year plus volunteer time go from me to the Conservatives, while the Liberals can't even raise the money for a decent leadership campaign.

    How on earth is Broadbent and Chretien picking Dion as the leader of this “coalition”: Why on earth would they put the man with public approval ratings lower than Layton last election as the centerpiece?

    I'm starting to wonder if maybe the Liberals and Conservatives aren't in cahoots to give the Conservatives a majority? Seriously, what soft Liberal would vote for a Liberal/Socialist/Separatist coalition?

  • Jen

    Calling on Chretien for help? a man who took $five hundred million of taxpayers money to cancel the helicopters which Mulroney purchased for our troops. Apparently our troops are not worth the best which their lives depend on.
    Not once did the MSM come to the aid of our troops against chretien. Who can we depend on? only this prime minister has taken unpon his shoulders the liberals years of neglect to the military; he had to rebuild the force which should have been done years ago. And the opposition wonder why the overspending well there's one reason. their is more.

  • frmgrl

    So is it actually true that BOB Fife stated that the Liberals are going to pass the Ways and Means motion on Monday?
    When did FIFE say this?

  • frmgrl

    So is it actually true that BOB Fife stated that the Liberals are going to pass the Ways and Means motion on Monday?
    When did FIFE say this?

  • Phil

    I heard if the government falls, Dion will be ousted and Ignatieff will be made leader of the Liberal party. Then he’ll be made leader of Canada once the liberals and NDP form a coalition with an outside pledge of support from the Bloc.

    And the Liberals say the Conservatives are a front to democracy? The Liberal/NDP coalition will be 29 seats short of the Conservatives with an unelected party leader being made an unelected Prime Minister. All without an election. Where are the palm trees and beaches cause this must be Cuba.

  • Phil

    I heard if the government falls, Dion will be ousted and Ignatieff will be made leader of the Liberal party. Then he’ll be made leader of Canada once the liberals and NDP form a coalition with an outside pledge of support from the Bloc.

    And the Liberals say the Conservatives are a front to democracy? The Liberal/NDP coalition will be 29 seats short of the Conservatives with an unelected party leader being made an unelected Prime Minister. All without an election. Where are the palm trees and beaches cause this must be Cuba.

  • Steve

    Stephen:

    I agree regarding tangible Bloc Support, I’m not a constitutional lawyer , but if the bloc is not techinically in the Coalition then its CPC 143 to LIB/NDP 114, which means going back to the people, the Bloc has to be in or out period.

    If the GG allows this subversion of democracy then this thing could blow wide open,

  • Steve

    Stephen:

    I agree regarding tangible Bloc Support, I’m not a constitutional lawyer , but if the bloc is not techinically in the Coalition then its CPC 143 to LIB/NDP 114, which means going back to the people, the Bloc has to be in or out period.

    If the GG allows this subversion of democracy then this thing could blow wide open,

  • Richard Romano

    This is incredible — the economy is already in a downturn, and the oppositions parties believe the answer is to unseat the democratically elected government and provide their own economic plan, a plan that is as nebulous as a black hole.

    Do they really believe the Canadian public will accept this affront to their choice of Stephen Harper as their PM? Keep in mind most Canadians, according to polls, believe Harper is the best leader…Dion was the worst.

  • Richard Romano

    This is incredible — the economy is already in a downturn, and the oppositions parties believe the answer is to unseat the democratically elected government and provide their own economic plan, a plan that is as nebulous as a black hole.

    Do they really believe the Canadian public will accept this affront to their choice of Stephen Harper as their PM? Keep in mind most Canadians, according to polls, believe Harper is the best leader…Dion was the worst.

  • frmgrl

    When did Bob Fife say that the Liberals are going vote for the Ways and Means motion? Is it actually true?

  • frmgrl

    When did Bob Fife say that the Liberals are going vote for the Ways and Means motion? Is it actually true?

  • Liz J

    Stephen, to look at the TV coverage of Ed Broadbent in his winter cap going into the Parliament and talk of Chretien collaborating with him on a plot to take down the Conservative government one would think terrible things were happening in this country.

    It's unbelievable to see such outlandish behaviour and desperation for power by an Opposition in this democracy. If we were to react as over the top as the Opposition Parties are we'd be in a civil war.

    It outrageous and we may have to take to the streets to defend our democratic right to the government we elected.

    It was somewhat calming to hear the Prime Minister explain what the Opposition is up to and he did look calm.
    Of course, one Don Boudria on MDL opined falsely that Mr Harper looked panicky, showing the depth of their depravity. The Liberal bankruptcy runs deep.

  • Liz J

    Ruth, that might just happen. At any rate,it will certainly spur more of us to donate to the party anyway.

  • Hollygram

    I agree with Liz we may have to take to the streets to get the government we elected!!

  • DavidKinKitchener

    I agree as well. We cannot just sit back and watch as this happens. We should start protesting this, if it should happen

  • Josef

    Scuttlebutt is PMSH is backing down both on killing the subsidy and on confidence motions.
    Dammit. I wish it was PMST or PMTK.

  • Josef

    Scuttlebutt is PMSH is backing down both on killing the subsidy and on confidence motions.
    Dammit. I wish it was PMST or PMTK.

  • Jen

    Not as long the liberal MSM are around to manipulate the canadians. so far, they think that corrupt governments that steal from the poor are the best party to run the country provided that they (MSM) get their slice of dough for deliberately manipulating the public for the liberals.

    Duceppe wants his separation paper with millions and millions of dollars in agreement to help sustain them, (sparatists) while they are separated from Canada or else they will not prop up the NDP/LIB parties.

    Layton wants to pay all unions high wages; bailout automotives; raise corporate taxes; kill the oil sands. or else he dores the same as Duceppe.

    Liberals want to continue with their entitlement; steal, make drastic cuts to health, education, military and cuts to provinces. these drastic cuts money will help finance the liberal party and their close beloved media.
    They love no one but themselves and the pain which they feel is for themselves. you and I do not mean a dam not even a dime to them. $0MILLION AND COUNTING are still missing yet they bitch over this crap.

  • Jen

    Not as long the liberal MSM are around to manipulate the canadians. so far, they think that corrupt governments that steal from the poor are the best party to run the country provided that they (MSM) get their slice of dough for deliberately manipulating the public for the liberals.

    Duceppe wants his separation paper with millions and millions of dollars in agreement to help sustain them, (sparatists) while they are separated from Canada or else they will not prop up the NDP/LIB parties.

    Layton wants to pay all unions high wages; bailout automotives; raise corporate taxes; kill the oil sands. or else he dores the same as Duceppe.

    Liberals want to continue with their entitlement; steal, make drastic cuts to health, education, military and cuts to provinces. these drastic cuts money will help finance the liberal party and their close beloved media.
    They love no one but themselves and the pain which they feel is for themselves. you and I do not mean a dam not even a dime to them. $0MILLION AND COUNTING are still missing yet they bitch over this crap.

  • Kelly Jamieson

    Stephen, one this is clear – the Conservatives have no right to govern if they cannot maintain the confidence of those elected to the House of Commons.

    Not one voter votes for his/her MP to be in oposition, every MP is a potential member of the Government in the eyes of the electore. A coalition Government is a viable and legitamate option for Mps.

    Do you think Harper will resign to allow the coalition in? Or, will he immediatly ask for another election?

  • Kelly Jamieson

    Stephen, one this is clear – the Conservatives have no right to govern if they cannot maintain the confidence of those elected to the House of Commons.

    Not one voter votes for his/her MP to be in oposition, every MP is a potential member of the Government in the eyes of the electore. A coalition Government is a viable and legitamate option for Mps.

    Do you think Harper will resign to allow the coalition in? Or, will he immediatly ask for another election?

  • Darren

    Bring on another election.Our Conservatives will end up with a majority goverment. This is win win for Harper.Its common knowledge cooler heads WILL provail! And those other power hungry party leaders will wind up hanging themselves, finally!

  • Darren

    Bring on another election.Our Conservatives will end up with a majority goverment. This is win win for Harper.Its common knowledge cooler heads WILL provail! And those other power hungry party leaders will wind up hanging themselves, finally!

  • Manda

    63% of Canadians did note vote for the Conservatives. They need the support of the opposition to stay in government, so why would Harper and Flaherty choose to provoke them, particularly in this time of fiscal uncertainty when Canadians need to count on order and stability? This is incomprehensible to me. The calibre of leadership in all of our parties is pathetic. All sides are playing partisan games, fiddling while Rome burns. We deserve better and we all need to stop whining in blog posts and take action – write some letters to your MP, whatever their stripe and demand that they all start working together in the best interest of the country.

  • Manda

    63% of Canadians did note vote for the Conservatives. They need the support of the opposition to stay in government, so why would Harper and Flaherty choose to provoke them, particularly in this time of fiscal uncertainty when Canadians need to count on order and stability? This is incomprehensible to me. The calibre of leadership in all of our parties is pathetic. All sides are playing partisan games, fiddling while Rome burns. We deserve better and we all need to stop whining in blog posts and take action – write some letters to your MP, whatever their stripe and demand that they all start working together in the best interest of the country.

  • george m

    Fools shouldn’t govern. Adios Harper

  • george m

    Fools shouldn’t govern. Adios Harper

  • Adscam

    Why isn’t anyone questioning Chretien’s role in the backroom deals? The guy is no longer PM, yet he’s attempting to “broker” the government of Canada? Shady dealing from his government brought Canadians the Adscam Sponsorship Scandal.

  • Adscam

    Why isn’t anyone questioning Chretien’s role in the backroom deals? The guy is no longer PM, yet he’s attempting to “broker” the government of Canada? Shady dealing from his government brought Canadians the Adscam Sponsorship Scandal.

  • stephen p

    Stephen

    Could you provide a link to PMSH’s address to Canadians from the foyer of Parliament this afternoon. I would like to read both the frencha s well as the english version as I think he was quite clear in french that the $1.95 per vote matter is still on the table.

  • stephen p

    Stephen

    Could you provide a link to PMSH’s address to Canadians from the foyer of Parliament this afternoon. I would like to read both the frencha s well as the english version as I think he was quite clear in french that the $1.95 per vote matter is still on the table.

  • Peter

    Finally the National media has got something to take about rather than spreading doom and gloom about the Canadian economy.

    As for this so-called coalition government that the three opposition parties are trying to broker I have only one response– As a ordinary Canadian citizen there is no way in hell that I will pay taxes to a government that is not elected by the people especially one backed by a separatist party.

    If a coalition government is in place next march/april I will not be sending any income taxes to Ottawa. I hope all concerned citizens will take whatever actions they seem fitting.

  • Peter

    Finally the National media has got something to take about rather than spreading doom and gloom about the Canadian economy.

    As for this so-called coalition government that the three opposition parties are trying to broker I have only one response– As a ordinary Canadian citizen there is no way in hell that I will pay taxes to a government that is not elected by the people especially one backed by a separatist party.

    If a coalition government is in place next march/april I will not be sending any income taxes to Ottawa. I hope all concerned citizens will take whatever actions they seem fitting.

  • Shamrock

    I wait to stand corrected, but there has never been a coalition or minority situation where the minority had less combined seats than the sitting government (BTW, throne speech passed, another factor GG will likely consider).

    In 1985 in Ont, combined Lib/NDP seats gave them majority in legislature. Not so this time. Libs and Tories finished within 5 seats of each other. Not so this time. That minority did not require consent of third party, as would be required this time. Liberals did not finish 12% behind in pop vote or with around half the seats of the party with the plurality of seats. The Ont 85 situation is clearly not a precedent for this time, as Don Boudria tried to argue on Duffy today. Imagine a situation in upcoming Quebec election where ADQ finishes behind Liberals but secures support of separatists to take power once legislature resumes. What would the West think of this? GG by agreeing to this arrangement would no doubt trigger constitutional and legal crisis. That is the advice she will receive and she will not go for it.

    Sorry, Libs and Dippers, the precedent simply doesn’t exist. GG would have to make precedent in this case. In the very unlikely case she did, we could have power change hands many times without benefit of election. No way Harper would accept this, nor should he. There is no overiding national crisis or scandal either; recession happen all the time – they come and they go. And, Canada is not even in recession. The only crisis here is opposition screaming for their entitlements; that is what they are trying to prevent. Jack Layton has the nerve to say taking away the $1.95 subsidy is an affront to democracy, but has no problem with a plan of an unprecedented minority coalition with support of a regional, separatist party. What a hypocrite.

    I suspect many Liberals and NDP aren’t as power mad as their leaders and cannot in good conscience support this kind of action. Do the math, Tories are 13 votes short of majority. If 14 don’t show up to vote, then confidence vote fails. The Libs also risk floor crossings. What’s to stop Harper from making a deal with the likes of Keith Martin, for a plumb cabinet post, or drawing out some Nfld MPs to give that province cabinet representation. It’s also likely Duceppe will pull his support on this because he really has nothing to gain, except to be part of coalition and be in cabinet. That alone would throw the country into crisis and guarantee the fanning of separation flames in BC and Alberta., like it or not. This story is far from told.

    BTW, in 1985 the eventual result was a near bankruptcy of Ont with later NDP government under Bob Rae.

    Nope, GG will not be part of this. If PM asks her to dissolve parliament, she will. Then Grits and Dippers will be screwed. I don’t believe in the final analysis they will take that chance, but who knows. IMO, it’s simply not going to happen

  • Shamrock

    I wait to stand corrected, but there has never been a coalition or minority situation where the minority had less combined seats than the sitting government (BTW, throne speech passed, another factor GG will likely consider).

    In 1985 in Ont, combined Lib/NDP seats gave them majority in legislature. Not so this time. Libs and Tories finished within 5 seats of each other. Not so this time. That minority did not require consent of third party, as would be required this time. Liberals did not finish 12% behind in pop vote or with around half the seats of the party with the plurality of seats. The Ont 85 situation is clearly not a precedent for this time, as Don Boudria tried to argue on Duffy today. Imagine a situation in upcoming Quebec election where ADQ finishes behind Liberals but secures support of separatists to take power once legislature resumes. What would the West think of this? GG by agreeing to this arrangement would no doubt trigger constitutional and legal crisis. That is the advice she will receive and she will not go for it.

    Sorry, Libs and Dippers, the precedent simply doesn’t exist. GG would have to make precedent in this case. In the very unlikely case she did, we could have power change hands many times without benefit of election. No way Harper would accept this, nor should he. There is no overiding national crisis or scandal either; recession happen all the time – they come and they go. And, Canada is not even in recession. The only crisis here is opposition screaming for their entitlements; that is what they are trying to prevent. Jack Layton has the nerve to say taking away the $1.95 subsidy is an affront to democracy, but has no problem with a plan of an unprecedented minority coalition with support of a regional, separatist party. What a hypocrite.

    I suspect many Liberals and NDP aren’t as power mad as their leaders and cannot in good conscience support this kind of action. Do the math, Tories are 13 votes short of majority. If 14 don’t show up to vote, then confidence vote fails. The Libs also risk floor crossings. What’s to stop Harper from making a deal with the likes of Keith Martin, for a plumb cabinet post, or drawing out some Nfld MPs to give that province cabinet representation. It’s also likely Duceppe will pull his support on this because he really has nothing to gain, except to be part of coalition and be in cabinet. That alone would throw the country into crisis and guarantee the fanning of separation flames in BC and Alberta., like it or not. This story is far from told.

    BTW, in 1985 the eventual result was a near bankruptcy of Ont with later NDP government under Bob Rae.

    Nope, GG will not be part of this. If PM asks her to dissolve parliament, she will. Then Grits and Dippers will be screwed. I don’t believe in the final analysis they will take that chance, but who knows. IMO, it’s simply not going to happen

  • Liberal

    “It outrageous and we may have to take to the streets to defend our democratic right to the government we elected.”

    Bring it, Liz.

  • Liberal

    “It outrageous and we may have to take to the streets to defend our democratic right to the government we elected.”

    Bring it, Liz.

  • Brandan

    This is kinda exciting tbh. I mean the conservatives were all “oh everything is fine, don’t worry,” now that it isn’t they aren’t ready.
    Plus right-wing politics is starting to get a bit extreme and embarrassing. They just hold back opportunities and stop a country from becoming a better place. (Bush for example)

    So I’m ready for this new change, it will be interesting.

  • Brandan

    This is kinda exciting tbh. I mean the conservatives were all “oh everything is fine, don’t worry,” now that it isn’t they aren’t ready.
    Plus right-wing politics is starting to get a bit extreme and embarrassing. They just hold back opportunities and stop a country from becoming a better place. (Bush for example)

    So I’m ready for this new change, it will be interesting.

  • Elizabeth Davidson

    It is an outrage to the Canadian voters who chose a Conservative government to have these have-not parties try to wrest control of the country from the leader and party of our choice. They are not acting in the best interests of the country. How could any thinking person consider Stephane Dion capable of leading this, or any other country.
    It is the end of democracy to have OUR choice taken away like this.
    Remember why the Conservatives were elected – the liberals are untrustworthy and interested only their need for money. AND – it has been proven by the NDP in both Ontario and British Columbia that they only destroy economies. Bob Rae was the NDP destroyer of Ontario in the 90’s- does anyone remember that????? Now he wants to lead the Liberals to a stolen government with a party that no one wants or respects. Their ratings can only go lower.
    Harper has a plan to help ALL Canadians through the economic troubles. The Liberals, NDP, and BLOC are just concerned about filling their own pockets and robbing yours.