Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Incumbent Progressive Conservative MPP Christine Hogarth sought re-election in this Toronto waterfront riding, which she had held since first winning it from the Liberals in 2018 and narrowly defending in 2022. The riding stretches along the Lake Ontario shore through the rapidly growing Humber Bay Shores corridor, Mimico, New Toronto, and Long Branch. Liberal challenger Lee Fairclough, who had come within 842 votes of defeating Hogarth in 2022, returned for a rematch. Hogarth’s term coincided with continued controversy over the Ontario Place redevelopment, situated adjacent to the riding, and with ongoing community pressure for infrastructure to match the waterfront’s explosive population growth.

Candidates

Lee Fairclough (Liberal) — Fairclough is a healthcare executive with over 25 years of leadership experience in the sector. She holds a Master of Health Science from the University of Toronto and began her career as a medical radiation therapist at Princess Margaret Hospital. She served as vice-president at Health Quality Ontario and later as president of St. Mary’s General Hospital in Kitchener. A former member of Canada’s women’s national rugby team at the 1998 World Cup, she has been a resident of the riding since 2001.

Christine Hogarth (Progressive Conservative) — Hogarth holds a degree in political science and public administration and spent much of her career in political operations, serving as the Ontario PC Party’s first female executive director and as chief of staff to then-PC leader John Tory. She later worked in government relations with the Canadian Automobile Association and as director of events for the Toronto Board of Trade before representing the riding from 2018 to 2022.

Rozhen Asrani (NDP) — Asrani immigrated to Canada from Iran at age ten and holds an economics degree from the University of Toronto. She works as a senior product manager in digital health and has spent roughly nine years in health technology and innovation. After moving to Mimico in 2021, she became president of the Mimico Residents Association.

Sean Mcclocklin (Green Party), Tony Siskos (New Blue Party), Larisa Berson (Ontario Moderate Party), and Vitas Naudziunas (None of the Above Direct Democracy Party) also ran.

Local Issues

The Ontario Place redevelopment was the most polarizing issue near the riding during the term. The Ford government’s deal with the Austrian company Therme Group to build a large wellness facility on the site’s West Island under a 95-year lease drew sustained criticism. Cost estimates for the overall redevelopment rose to roughly $2.2 billion — several times the original 2019 projection — and in December 2024, Ontario’s Auditor General found that the redevelopment process had not followed proper procedures. Community organizations continued to fight for greater public access to the waterfront.

The waterfront’s continued condo-driven population growth remained a central concern. Humber Bay Shores had been transformed from a former motel strip into a dense residential corridor, and residents pressed for transit improvements, additional school capacity, new parks, and better healthcare access. Plans for the former Christie bakery lands, including a major mixed-use development with a new Park Lawn GO station, offered the prospect of improved transit connectivity for the rapidly growing area.