Kathleen Wynne's Liberals won a surprise majority on June 12, 2014, capturing 58 of 107 seats despite the cloud of the $950-million gas plant cancellation scandal. The legislature was dissolved on May 2 after NDP leader Andrea Horwath announced her party would vote against the Liberal budget, ending the minority parliament that had limped along since 2011. Writs were issued on May 7 for a campaign across 107 ridings. Turnout was approximately 52% of eligible voters, up from the record-low 48.2% in 2011.

The result was the Liberals' fourth consecutive election victory, a streak stretching back to 2003. Wynne became the first woman and first openly gay leader to win a provincial general election in Ontario. The election was widely seen as a referendum on PC leader Tim Hudak's austerity platform — his promise to cut 100,000 public sector jobs proved deeply unpopular and handed the Liberals a majority few polls had predicted.

Results

The Liberals won 58 seats with 38.6% of the popular vote. The PCs won 28 seats with 31.3%, a loss of 9 seats from 2011. The NDP won 21 seats with 23.8%, a gain of 4 seats. The Greens won no seats. The official tabulation in Thornhill reversed the election-night result, flipping the seat from Liberal to PC after clerical errors were corrected — a judicial recount confirmed the PC win by 106 votes.

The Liberal majority was built on a near-sweep of the Greater Toronto Area. The PCs were shut out of the City of Toronto entirely and lost ground across the surrounding suburbs.

Party Leaders

Kathleen Wynne (Liberal) — Born in Richmond Hill on May 21, 1953, Wynne earned a BA from Queen's University, an MA in linguistics from the University of Toronto, and an MEd from the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education. She implemented conflict resolution programs in more than 60 Ontario schools before entering politics. Elected to the legislature in Don Valley West in 2003, she served as Education Minister and Transportation Minister under Dalton McGuinty. She won the Liberal leadership on January 26, 2013, defeating Sandra Pupatello, and was sworn in as Ontario's first woman premier and Canada's first openly gay premier. Wynne won her riding with 55.8%.

Tim Hudak (PC) — Born in Fort Erie on November 1, 1967, Hudak earned a BA in economics from the University of Western Ontario and an MA in economics from the University of Washington on a full scholarship. He was first elected in 1995 as part of the Mike Harris wave and served in cabinet as Minister of Northern Development and Mines and Minister of Tourism. He won the PC leadership on June 27, 2009. Hudak's centrepiece "Million Jobs Plan" promised to create one million jobs over eight years, but economists identified that it confused person-years of employment with permanent jobs, effectively counting each new job eight times. His promise to cut 100,000 public sector positions over four years dominated the campaign and cost the party suburban GTA seats. He won Niagara West-Glanbrook with roughly 42% but announced his resignation as PC leader on election night.

Andrea Horwath (NDP) — Born in Stoney Creek on October 24, 1962, Horwath earned a BA from McMaster University and worked as a community organizer at a Hamilton legal clinic. She was elected to Hamilton City Council in 1997, then won Hamilton East in a 2004 by-election. She became NDP leader on March 7, 2009, on the third ballot with 60.4%. Horwath triggered the election by announcing the NDP would vote against the Liberal budget — a decision that drew an open letter from 34 current and former New Democrats who called the budget "the most progressive budget in recent Ontario history" and accused her of running to the right. Despite the controversy, the NDP gained 4 seats over 2011. She won Hamilton Centre with 52.1%.

Mike Schreiner (Green) — The Kansas-born food-systems entrepreneur had led the Green Party since 2009. He finished third in Guelph with approximately 19% of the vote, roughly 1,000 votes behind the PC candidate. He would not win a seat until 2018.

Campaign Issues

Hudak's Million Jobs Plan and the 100,000 public sector job cuts were the defining issue. The mathematical error in the plan — using person-years rather than actual jobs — undermined its credibility and became a recurring target for both the Liberals and NDP.

The gas plant cancellation scandal hung over the Liberals. The Auditor General's 2013 report found the total cost of cancelling two natural gas plants in Mississauga and Oakville was $950 million, far higher than the government's initial $230-million estimate. A subsequent OPP investigation examined the deletion of government records related to the cancellations. Despite this, the scandal did not cost the Liberals the election.

The Ontario Retirement Pension Plan was a major Liberal platform plank — a proposed mandatory defined-benefit pension for the roughly 3 million Ontarians without workplace pensions, funded by equal 1.9% contributions from employers and employees on income up to $90,000.

Notable Outcomes

The Liberal majority was the election's biggest surprise. Despite the gas plant scandal and 11 years in government, the Liberals expanded from their 2011 minority to a comfortable majority — driven by a near-sweep of the GTA. The PCs' austerity platform, centred on public sector cuts, backfired in the diverse Toronto suburbs, where many voters had direct connections to the public sector. Hudak resigned on election night, the third consecutive PC leader to lose to the Liberals. The NDP's decision to trigger the election by rejecting the Liberal budget produced a bitter internal debate and cost the party its balance-of-power leverage from the minority parliament.