Dalton McGuinty's Liberals were reduced to a minority government on October 6, 2011, winning 53 of 107 seats — one short of a majority — after eight years in power. McGuinty asked Lieutenant Governor David Onley to dissolve the legislature on September 7 for a 29-day campaign. All 107 ridings were contested. Turnout fell to a then-record-low 48.2% of eligible voters.

McGuinty was seeking a third consecutive mandate, something no Liberal premier had achieved since Oliver Mowat in the 19th century. The deeply unpopular harmonized sales tax, which had taken effect on July 1, 2010, had battered his government's standing, along with a series of spending scandals. The PCs under Tim Hudak had led in polls for months heading into the campaign, making the Liberal minority an outcome that surprised both sides.

Results

The Liberals won 53 seats with 37.6% of the popular vote, down 18 seats from their 71-seat majority in 2007. The PCs won 37 seats with 35.4%, a gain of 11 seats. The NDP won 17 seats with 22.7%, gaining 7 seats and holding the balance of power in the resulting minority legislature. The Greens won no seats with 2.9%. It was Ontario's first minority government since David Peterson's Liberals in 1985.

The Liberals held most of their Greater Toronto Area seats but hemorrhaged support in rural Ontario, where anger over the Green Energy Act and industrial wind turbines drove voters to the PCs. The gap between the Liberals and PCs was just 15,000 votes province-wide.

Party Leaders

Dalton McGuinty (Liberal) — Born in Ottawa on July 19, 1955, the third of ten children, McGuinty earned a BSc in biology from McMaster University and an LLB from the University of Ottawa. His father, Dalton McGuinty Sr., had served as the Liberal MPP for Ottawa South until his death in 1990. McGuinty won the Liberal nomination and took the seat in the 1990 general election, holding it for over two decades. He won the Liberal leadership in 1996, lost to Mike Harris in 1999, then led the Liberals to a majority in 2003, becoming the 24th premier. His government implemented full-day kindergarten — a North American first — closed Ontario's coal-fired power plants, and passed the Green Energy Act. He won a second majority in 2007 but the introduction of the HST and mounting spending scandals eroded his support. He held Ottawa South by roughly 7,000 votes. He resigned as premier on October 15, 2012, proroguing the legislature amid the gas plant scandal.

Tim Hudak (PC) — Born in Fort Erie on November 1, 1967, Hudak earned a BA in economics from the University of Western Ontario and an MA from the University of Washington. First elected in 1995, he served in the Harris cabinet as Minister of Northern Development and Mines and Minister of Tourism. He won the PC leadership on June 27, 2009, on the third ballot. His "Changebook" platform promised income tax cuts, cancellation of the $7-billion Samsung green energy deal, and removal of the provincial HST from hydro and home heating. A campaign attack on a Liberal immigrant hiring tax credit — which Hudak characterized as favouring "foreign workers" — drew rebukes from former PC leaders Ernie Eves and John Tory and likely cost the party support in the immigrant-rich GTA suburbs. He won Niagara West-Glanbrook with approximately 51%.

Andrea Horwath (NDP) — Born in Stoney Creek on October 24, 1962, Horwath earned a BA from McMaster University and worked as a community organizer at a Hamilton legal clinic before entering municipal politics in 1997. She won Hamilton East in a 2004 by-election and became NDP leader on March 7, 2009, on the third ballot with 60.4% — the first woman to lead the Ontario NDP. The 2011 election was her first as leader and a significant success: the NDP gained 7 seats, surpassed 20% of the popular vote for the first time since 1995, and won the balance of power. She won Hamilton Centre comfortably.

Campaign Issues

The HST was the dominant issue. On July 1, 2010, Ontario merged its 8% provincial sales tax with the 5% federal GST to create a 13% harmonized sales tax, extending the tax to previously exempt items including gasoline, heating, and haircuts. Polling showed 74% of Ontarians opposed the change. Both the PCs and NDP attacked the Liberals over it.

The eHealth scandal fed the narrative of Liberal waste. The Auditor General found in 2009 that $1 billion had been spent on electronic health records with little to show for it, including millions in untendered contracts and a $114,000 bonus for the agency's CEO.

The Samsung green energy deal and the Green Energy Act provoked a rural backlash. The government's $7-billion agreement with Samsung to build 2,500 megawatts of wind and solar generation sparked fierce opposition to industrial wind turbines across rural Ontario. The PCs pledged to cancel the deal; the NDP called for greater community input on siting.

The gas plant cancellations became an issue late in the campaign. On September 28, 2011 — just eight days before election day — the Liberals promised to cancel a gas-fired power plant in Mississauga, following the earlier cancellation of one in Oakville. Both moves were widely seen as attempts to save Liberal seats in the 905 suburbs. The full cost — later revealed at $950 million — would dominate the subsequent minority parliament.

Notable Outcomes

The result was Ontario's first minority government in 26 years. The NDP's 17 seats gave Horwath the balance of power, a position she would leverage for two years before triggering the 2014 election. The PCs gained 11 seats but fell well short of victory despite leading in pre-campaign polls — Hudak's "foreign workers" rhetoric is widely credited with alienating the diverse GTA suburbs that the party needed. The minority parliament lasted barely a year: McGuinty resigned on October 15, 2012, proroguing the legislature amid the gas plant scandal and a confrontation with teachers' unions over Bill 115, which imposed contracts and restricted the right to strike. Kathleen Wynne succeeded him as Liberal leader in January 2013 and was sworn in as premier on February 11.