Dalton McGuinty's Liberals won a second consecutive majority on October 10, 2007, capturing 71 of 107 seats — the first Ontario Liberal leader to achieve back-to-back majorities since Mitchell Hepburn in 1937. This was Ontario's first election held on a legislatively fixed date, set under the Election Statute Law Amendment Act of 2005 for the first Thursday in October every four years. The date was shifted from October 4 to October 10 to avoid the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret. The legislature had been redistributed from 103 to 107 ridings. Turnout fell to a then-record-low 52.8% of eligible voters.

A concurrent referendum asked voters whether to replace the first-past-the-post electoral system with Mixed Member Proportional representation, as recommended by the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform. The referendum required 60% support overall and majority support in at least 64 of 107 ridings to pass. It failed decisively.

Results

The Liberals won 71 seats with 42.2% of the popular vote, holding almost all of the ground they had gained in their 2003 landslide despite the redistribution from 103 to 107 seats. The PCs won 26 seats with 31.6%, a gain of just 2 seats from their 2003 result of 24. The NDP won 10 seats with 16.8%, gaining 3 seats. The Greens won no seats but surged to 8.0% of the popular vote — up from 2.8% in 2003 — with a second-place finish in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound at 33.1%.

The MMP referendum was rejected by 63.2% of voters, with only 36.8% in favour. It achieved majority support in just 5 Toronto ridings — far short of the required 64.

The Liberals consolidated their hold on the Greater Toronto Area and suburban belt, while the PCs remained confined largely to rural eastern and central Ontario. One of the tightest races was in Thunder Bay-Atikokan, where Liberal Bill Mauro held on by just 36 votes.

Party Leaders

Dalton McGuinty (Liberal) — The Ottawa-born premier had entered politics in 1990 after the death of his father, Dalton Sr., who had represented Ottawa South as a Liberal MPP. McGuinty won the riding in the 1990 general election — the only new Liberal elected that night amid the NDP wave — and held it continuously. He became Liberal leader in 1996, lost to Mike Harris in 1999, then swept to power in 2003 with 72 of 103 seats. His first term was marked by major investments in health care and education, including smaller class sizes and new school construction, but also by the controversial Ontario Health Premium — an income-scaled levy of $60 to $900 per year that broke his 2003 campaign pledge not to raise taxes. The broken promise haunted him throughout the 2007 campaign, but the PCs' faith-based schools controversy deflected attention. He won Ottawa South comfortably.

John Tory (PC) — Born in Toronto on May 28, 1954, into one of the city's most prominent business families, Tory earned a BA in political science from the University of Toronto and a law degree from Osgoode Hall Law School. At 26 he was appointed principal secretary to Premier Bill Davis, making him one of the youngest people to hold that role. He later practised corporate law, then served as president and CEO of Rogers Media and Rogers Cable. He won the PC leadership on September 18, 2004, defeating Jim Flaherty on the second ballot with approximately 54% support. Tory's platform pledged to eliminate the Ontario Health Premium, install scrubbers on coal plants, and address doctor shortages. But his proposal to extend public funding to private faith-based schools — arguing it was a fairness issue since Catholic separate schools already received full funding — proved catastrophic. Before the announcement, the PCs had been polling competitively; afterward, Liberal support surged and never looked back. Tory ran in Don Valley West against Liberal incumbent Kathleen Wynne and lost by roughly 4,900 votes — the first major party leader to lose his own seat since PC leader Larry Grossman in 1987. He resigned after losing a March 2009 by-election in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock and later became mayor of Toronto in 2014.

Howard Hampton (NDP) — Born in Fort Frances on May 17, 1952, Hampton earned an undergraduate degree in philosophy and religion from Dartmouth College — where he played Division I varsity ice hockey — a teaching degree from the University of Toronto, and a law degree from the University of Ottawa. He practised labour law before winning the riding of Rainy River in 1987 and serving as Attorney General under Bob Rae. He became NDP leader on June 22, 1996, defeating Frances Lankin on the third ballot. The 2007 campaign was his third as leader, and he focused on raising the minimum wage to $10 per hour and cutting industrial hydro rates by 15% to support Ontario's struggling manufacturing sector. The NDP gained 3 seats but remained well short of official party status. Hampton won Kenora-Rainy River with a widened margin. He stepped down as leader in 2009.

Frank de Jong (Green) — The party's founding leader since 1993, de Jong ran in Davenport and received 10.3% of the vote. The Greens fielded a full slate of 107 candidates and their 8.0% province-wide showing was a significant breakthrough in vote share, though the party won no seats.

Campaign Issues

Faith-based school funding was the dominant issue. John Tory proposed extending public funding to Ontario's private religious schools — Islamic, Jewish, Hindu, Christian, and others — arguing it was inequitable for Catholic separate schools to receive full provincial funding while other faith-based schools received none. Polls consistently showed a clear majority of Ontarians opposed the idea. The announcement reversed PC polling momentum and handed the Liberals a lead they held for the remainder of the campaign. Tory later acknowledged the pledge had been a mistake.

The Ontario Health Premium remained a vulnerability for McGuinty. In 2004, citing a $5.6-billion deficit inherited from the Eves government, the Liberals had introduced the income-scaled health levy despite McGuinty's signed pledge to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation not to raise taxes. The PCs promised to eliminate it; the issue gave voters a reason for lingering distrust of the Liberals, though Tory's faith-based schools controversy eclipsed it.

The MMP referendum generated significant debate but low public awareness. The Citizens' Assembly, established in March 2006, had recommended by a vote of 94 to 8 that Ontario adopt a Mixed Member Proportional system with 90 local members and 39 province-wide list members in an expanded 129-seat legislature. Critics argued the proposal would create two classes of MPPs and give party insiders too much power over list appointments. Supporters argued it would produce fairer representation. In the end, 63.2% voted to keep first-past-the-post.

Manufacturing job losses and electricity costs were the NDP's core issues, as southern Ontario's industrial base continued to shed jobs amid a rising Canadian dollar and competition from low-wage countries.

Notable Outcomes

John Tory's personal defeat in Don Valley West was the election's most dramatic moment. He lost to Kathleen Wynne — then the education minister — by roughly 4,900 votes, a result that raised Wynne's profile and foreshadowed her rise to the premiership in 2013. Tory initially stayed on as leader with caucus support, but after losing a March 2009 by-election in the normally safe PC riding of Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, he resigned. Tim Hudak succeeded him as PC leader.

The decisive rejection of MMP — winning majority support in only 5 Toronto ridings, far short of the 64 needed — effectively ended the electoral reform debate in Ontario for a generation. The record-low turnout of 52.8% raised concerns about democratic disengagement that would only deepen in subsequent elections. The Greens' surge to 8.0% proved to be their provincial high-water mark; their support would decline in every subsequent election until Mike Schreiner finally won Guelph in 2018.