The 2012 Alberta election, held on April 23, was one of the most dramatic in Canadian provincial history. Every major poll in the final week had projected a Wildrose majority government, but Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives won 61 of 87 seats — a comfortable majority that defied expectations and extended the party's unbroken hold on power to 41 years. The writs were issued on March 26, and 87 ridings were contested following a 2010 redistribution that added four seats. Turnout was 54.4%, up sharply from the historically low 40.6% in 2008.

Redford had become premier just six months earlier, winning the PC leadership in a surprise come-from-behind victory on October 1, 2011. Her opponent for the premiership was not the opposition but her own party's reputation after four decades in power. Danielle Smith's Wildrose offered a right-wing alternative built on fiscal conservatism, property rights, and direct democracy — but a series of candidate controversies in the campaign's final days triggered a dramatic late swing that reshaped the result.

Results

The PCs won 61 seats with 43.9% of the popular vote, down from 72 seats and 52.7% in 2008 but still a decisive majority. The Wildrose won 17 seats with 34.3%, surging from roughly 7% of the vote in their first election in 2008 to become the Official Opposition — the first time since 1982 that a party other than the Liberals or NDP held that role. The Liberals collapsed from 9 seats and 26.4% to just 5 seats and 7.5%, their worst showing in decades. The NDP doubled from 2 seats to 4 with 9.9% of the vote, gaining official party status in the Legislature.

The result exposed a sharp regional divide. The Wildrose dominated southern rural Alberta, winning 8 of 11 seats south of Calgary. In Calgary, the PCs won 20 of 25 seats while the Wildrose managed only 2. The Wildrose was shut out of Edmonton entirely, where the PCs won 13 seats, the NDP 4, and the Liberals 2. Strategic voting played a significant role: centrist and left-leaning voters who would normally support the Liberals or NDP voted PC to prevent a Wildrose government, contributing to the Liberal collapse.

Party Leaders

Alison Redford (Progressive Conservative) — A lawyer with an international background, Redford had worked on democratic governance projects in South Africa, Bosnia, Afghanistan, and the Philippines before entering Alberta politics. She was first elected in Calgary-Elbow in 2008 and was immediately appointed Justice Minister. When Premier Ed Stelmach announced he would not seek re-election, Redford entered the leadership race as an underdog. She placed second on the first ballot behind frontrunner Gary Mar, but won the decisive second ballot on October 1, 2011, with 51.1% of the vote after third-place candidate Doug Horner's supporters broke heavily in her favour. She was sworn in as Alberta's 14th premier — and the province's first female premier — on October 7, 2011.

Danielle Smith (Wildrose) — Smith studied English and economics at the University of Calgary before pursuing careers in journalism, talk radio, and business advocacy, including stints as a Calgary Herald editorial board member and as Alberta director of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. She won the Wildrose leadership on October 17, 2009, and built the party from a fringe movement polling in single digits into a force that led in every poll heading into the final week. She ran on a platform of no tax increases, citizen referendums, and property rights protections. She won her own seat of Highwood and became Leader of the Official Opposition.

Raj Sherman (Liberal) — An emergency room physician who had originally been elected as a PC MLA for Edmonton-Meadowlark in 2008, Sherman was expelled from the PC caucus after publicly accusing the government of mishandling healthcare. He won the Liberal leadership on September 10, 2011, becoming the first visible minority to lead the party. He narrowly held his seat on election night by just 118 votes.

Brian Mason (NDP) — A former Edmonton city councillor and bus driver, Mason had represented Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood since winning a 2000 by-election. He became NDP leader in 2004 and led the party through three elections. Under his leadership, the NDP doubled its caucus from 2 to 4 seats, with all four wins in Edmonton.

Campaign Issues

The dominant issue of the campaign's final week was a pair of controversial statements by Wildrose candidates. Allan Hunsperger, running in Edmonton-South West, had written a blog post stating that gay people who did not repent would spend eternity in a "lake of fire." Ron Leech, running in Calgary-Greenway, told a multicultural radio station that as a Caucasian candidate he had an advantage because he could represent the whole community. Smith declined to remove either candidate, saying they were expressing personal views. Both lost on election night. The Wildrose platform's "conscience rights" clause — which would have allowed healthcare professionals to refuse services on religious grounds — amplified concerns about the party's social conservatism.

Healthcare was a persistent issue throughout the campaign. Redford promised 140 "family care clinics" with extended hours and multidisciplinary teams. Sherman, drawing on his experience as an ER physician, focused on emergency wait times and system management. The NDP called for increased public healthcare spending funded by higher resource royalties.

Fiscal policy divided the right-of-centre parties. Smith signed a public pledge promising no tax increases under a Wildrose government, while Redford similarly promised no tax increases and no service cuts. The question of how Alberta should manage its resource wealth — and whether the province's long reliance on energy revenues had left it structurally vulnerable — ran through the campaign.

Notable Outcomes

The 2012 result became one of the most notable polling failures in Canadian provincial history. As late as two days before election day, polls showed the Wildrose leading by as much as 9 points. The final-day swing — from Wildrose 41%, PC 32% on Saturday to PC 44%, Wildrose 34% on Monday — remains one of the sharpest documented reversals in Canadian polling. The result drew comparisons to the "Shy Tory" phenomenon in British elections and prompted a national reckoning over provincial polling methodology.

Four PC cabinet ministers were defeated by Wildrose challengers: Ted Morton in Chestermere-Rockyview, Ray Danyluk in Lac La Biche-St. Paul, Evan Berger in Livingstone-Macleod, and Jack Hayden in Drumheller-Stettler. The NDP's gains were also notable — Rachel Notley held Edmonton-Strathcona, David Eggen won Edmonton-Calder, and Deron Bilous took Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from the PCs, previewing the party's broader breakthrough three years later.